The Economic Imperative

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The Economic Imperative The Economic Imperative Where is the world of work Where is the world of work

going?going?

The Center for Occupational Employment Information

Presents:

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Three Aspects of the ImperativeThree Aspects of the Imperative

The Labor Shortage

The Skills Gap

The Education Gap

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Higher Learning – Higher EarningHigher Learning – Higher Earning

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Non-HS HSG SomeCollege

4-YearCollege

Grad School

Ea

rnin

gs

Men Women

Source: Census Bureau: U.S. Population by educational attainment, 2004

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Skill requirements are Skill requirements are increasing increasing

UnskilledUnskilled

60%60%

SkilledSkilled

20%20%

ProfessionalProfessional

20%20%

SkilledSkilled

65%65%

UnskilledUnskilled

15%15%

ProfessionalProfessional

20%20%

1950 1997

Source: National Summit on 21st Century Skills for 21st Century Jobs

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New Jersey requirements are New Jersey requirements are higherhigher

• About 65% of the fastest growing occupations in the nation require some postsecondary education or training compared with 58% for New Jersey.

• By 2012, 44% of all N.J. jobs will require a vocational certificate, associate degree, bachelor’s degree or higher compared with 42% in the nation.

• By contrast, ten percent of the top 50 declining occupations in the nation require postsecondary education or training compared with only 4% in New Jersey.

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……but training is not meeting the but training is not meeting the needneed

• While worker educational requirements are increasing, the educational attainment of the U.S. workforce is declining.

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31

4043

51

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

U.S.

Canada

Ireland

Japan

Korea

55-64 45-54 35-44

25-34Source; Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators 2003

The U.S. is falling behindThe U.S. is falling behind

Percentage of the population with a postsecondary credential

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1990 2000 % Change

U.S. 13.7 15.7 +15%

China 3.8 13.6 +258%

India 4.9 9.4 +92%

Students Enrolled in Postsecondary(in thousands)

Source: UNESCO, 2003

……and the gap is wideningand the gap is widening

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Where is the competitive Where is the competitive advantage?advantage?

Bachelor level engineering degrees -1999Bachelor level engineering degrees -1999• U.S. 61,000 • Japan 103,000• E.U. 134,000• China 195,000* *Source: Choose to Compete, Computer Systems Policy Project

• If you look at India, China and Russia… even if you discount 90% of the people there as uneducated farmers… you still end up with about 300 million people who are educated. That is bigger than the entire U.S. workforce.

Source: Bob Herbert, New York Times

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The literacy problemThe literacy problem

Number of States Percent of Illiterate Adults

14 50% or More

20 40% to 49%

16 32% to 30%

Almost half of the nations adult population reads at a level below that expected of the average high school graduate, yet these individuals:

• Make up 39% of the workforce• Work in low paying, unstable jobs that are disappearing from the economy• Cannot - without extensive remediation - profit from projected economic growth

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Fastest growing industries in N.J.Fastest growing industries in N.J.

Industry % GrowthSocial assistance 45.6Ambulatory health care services 37.3Amusements, gambling, and recreation 31.3Administrative and support services 31.3Nursing and residential care facilities 30.7ISPs, search portals, and data processing 27.5Membership associations and organizations 25.3Professional and technical services 21.8Building material and garden supply stores 21.7Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores 21.4

Percent change: 2002 - 2012

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N.J. employment gains: short-term OJTN.J. employment gains: short-term OJT

Source: N.J. Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2002 - 2012

Occupation Change

Cashiers 14,600

Retail Salespersons 14,600

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 11,800

Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 11,500

Receptionists and Information Clerks 9,200

Child Care Workers 9,200

Home Health Aides 8,800

Teacher Assistants 8,600

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 8,400

Waiters and Waitresses 7,600

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N.J. employment gains: moderate OJTN.J. employment gains: moderate OJT

Occupation Change

Customer Service Representatives 11,100

Medical Assistants 6,900

Sales Reps, Wholesale & Mfg., Exc. Technical & Scientific 5,600

Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 5,100

Social and Human Service Assistants 4,900

Dental Assistants 3,700

Sales and Related Workers, All Other 3,100

Construction Laborers 2,600

Correctional Officers and Jailers 1,900

Sales Reps, Wholesale & Mfg., Technical & Scientific Products 1,500


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N.J. employment gains: long-term OJTN.J. employment gains: long-term OJT

Occupation Change

Electricians 3,400

Carpenters 3,300

Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 3,000

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 2,900

Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers 2,300

Photographers 1,800

Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 1,800

Cooks, Restaurant 1,700

Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 1,200

Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators 1,100


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N.J. employment gains: post-N.J. employment gains: post-secondarysecondary


Occupation Change

Medical Secretaries 6,800

Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 5,200

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 4,200

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 3,900

Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 2,000

Computer Specialists, All Other 1,500

Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 1,200

Legal Secretaries 1,200

Massage Therapists 900

Manicurists and Pedicurists 700

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N.J. employment gains: associate’s N.J. employment gains: associate’s degreedegree

Occupation Change

Registered Nurses 20,800

Computer Support Specialists 4,100

Dental Hygienists 1,900

Radiologic Technologists and Technicians 1,400

Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 1,200

Paralegals and Legal Assistants 1,100

Medical Records and Health Information Technicians 900

Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 800

Respiratory Therapists 600

Biological Technicians 600


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N.J. employment gains: bachelor’s N.J. employment gains: bachelor’s degreedegree


Occupation Change

Computer Software Engineers, Applications 5,500

Computer Systems Analysts 5,500

Accountants and Auditors 5,400

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education 5,100

Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and Vocational Education 4,900

Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents 4,200

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 3,500

Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 3,300

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 2,800

Special Education Teachers, Preschool and Elementary School 2,800

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N.J. employment gains: master’s N.J. employment gains: master’s degreedegree


Occupation Change

Rehabilitation Counselors 2,700

Physical Therapists 1,400

Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers 1,100

Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists 800

Instructional Coordinators 800

Educational, Vocational, and School Counselors 700

Mental Health Counselors 600

Speech-Language Pathologists 600

Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors 500

Health Educators 400

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Occupations whose workers are Occupations whose workers are agingaging

OccupationPercent 55 and older

All occupations 13.9

Bus drivers 44.8

Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers 32.4

Loan counselors and officers 32.3

Social workers 30.1

Environmental scientists and geoscientists 28.1

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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County highlightsCounty highlights

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County Highlights - HudsonCounty Highlights - Hudson

• Manufacturing sector is projected to continue its downward trend, led by apparel manufacturing which will decline at rate of 4.9% per year.

• Industry employment gains will be led by healthcare and social assistance, finance and insurance, and administrative and waste services. These will account for one of every two jobs created from 2002-2012.

• The county has the highest concentration of office and administrative support workers in the State (21.7%) due to significant employment in the finance, insurance and real estate industries.

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County Highlights - HunterdonCounty Highlights - Hunterdon

• A relatively small county (50,450 employment in 2002) with a projected annual growth rate of 1.6%.

• Retail trade and health and professional services are, and will continue to be, the county’s largest industries.

•Second only to Mercer in percentage of professional workers (23%)

• Health and social services are county’s fastest growing industries with over a 35% growth rate from 2002-2012.

• Professional business services will increase about 28%.

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County Highlights - MercerCounty Highlights - Mercer• The slowest growing county in the Central Region due to large employment in government and the declining manufacturing industries.

• Government employment made up more than one of every four jobs in in 2002 and is projected to continue that trend through 2012.

• Professional jobs will increase by about 10,500 from 2002-2012 (16.5%).

•Has the largest percentage of professional workers (27.5%), mainly due to the high concentration of government employment

• Four of the ten fastest growing occupations in the county are in health services.

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County Highlights - MiddlesexCounty Highlights - Middlesex

• Second largest county in State (Bergen #1) in total nonfarm payroll employment with over 420,000 in 2002.

• Largest projected employment increase in the State, expecting 55,950 new jobs.

• Middlesex is outpacing the State’s growth in nearly all major Occupational categories

• More than 60% of the job growth is projected to occur in the following three industries:

1. Administrative & waste services +16,1502. Health care and social assistance +10,2003. Professional and technical services +9,000

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County Highlights - SomersetCounty Highlights - Somerset

• Third fastest projected growth from 2002-2012 at 17.7%, behind only Gloucester and Ocean.

•Manufacturing sector is dominated by chemical industry with greater than a 40% share.

• Health care and social assistance industry will grow by more than 6,000 jobs, a 40% increase from 2002-2012.

• Security guards will add 1,200 jobs, an increase over 45%!!!

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County Highlights – UnionCounty Highlights – Union

• Employment is projected to grow at less than 1% per year.

• The manufacturing sector, third largest among NJ counties, is projected to lose 4,900 jobs from 2002-2012 (-12.2%).

• Only sales occupations will exceed average growth in the state.

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N.J. share of U.S. populationN.J. share of U.S. population

3 33

33

33

33

3

3

33 3

3

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

N.J

Po

pu

lati

on

Sh

are

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Female growth will no longer Female growth will no longer dominatedominate

Male36%

Female64%

Female46% Male

54%

1990-2002 2002-2012

Labor force share

29

Growth for minorities outpaces Growth for minorities outpaces whiteswhites

51

33

19

912

Asian Hispanic Black White Total

Projected labor force percent change, 2002-12

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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CJJDA population trendsCJJDA population trends

Hudson

Mercer

Union

Middlesex

Hunterdon

Somerset

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

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Older workers are coming back to Older workers are coming back to workwork

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Men

Women

Percent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – U.S. labor force participation, age 55+

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We need to meet the challengeWe need to meet the challenge

• We have an aging workforce.

• We have a growing labor shortage driven by demographics.

• We have a significant number of unemployed persons who do not have the knowledge or skills to become employed.

• Thirty-nine percent of our working adults do not read at the level expected of the average high school student.

• We expect to import millions of skilled foreign workers to meet our labor demand.

• One-third of the immigrants entering our country lack a high school education.

The Economic Imperative

Health & Medicine

Transcript of The Economic Imperative