The Economic Dynamics and Fiscal Impacts of an Aging

Society

Kevin E. Cahill, PhDECONorthwest

The Center on Aging & Work at Boston College

October 2, 2015

The 10th Annual Conference of the Oregon Oral Health CoalitionOral Health in the New Age of Aging:

Perspectives on Epigenetics, Gerontology, and Chronic DiseasesPortland, Oregon

Population Distribution in the U.S.

by Age and Gender, 1900 and 2040

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Population Projections. Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/.

Oregon Is No Exception:Population Distribution of

Oregonby Age and Gender, 2000 and

2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State Population Projections. Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/statepyramid.html.

A Demographic HolidayPercent of the U.S. Population Aged 65 or Older, 1880-2080

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Population Projections. Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/.

It’s Not Just About Demographics – Key Economic Incentives Have Changed as Well

Changes have occurred to each of the three pillars of retirement income: Social Security, private pensions, and savings.

Older Americans on the cusp of retirement today are more exposed to macroeconomic fluctuations than were previous cohorts.

Older Americans are Exposed to Market Forces at a Time When Markets are Volatile

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1992 – 2015, and four cohorts of HRS respondents, denoted by their first six years of survey participation

Elderly Poverty Rates: From Highest to Lowest (for

now)U.S. poverty rates, by age, 1959-2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2014). Income and Poverty in the in the United States: 2013: Figure 5.

Available at: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2014/demo/p60-249.pdf.

Looking Ahead …

How can we maintain our standard of living, and provide quality healthcare for all older Americans, in this new age of retirement?