The Earth’s Climate - TU Delftdeos.tudelft.nl/AS/ejo/ejo/ae4-876-climate.pdf · • Changes in...
Transcript of The Earth’s Climate - TU Delftdeos.tudelft.nl/AS/ejo/ejo/ae4-876-climate.pdf · • Changes in...
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The Earth’s Climate
E. Schrama Physics of the Earth
Course ae4-876 8-Mar-2011
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Contents • Introduction
- Hydrostatic equilibrium and scale height - Thermal wind equations - Thermal structure of the atmosphere
• Energy – Conduction, convection, radiation – Earth’s radiation balance – Greenhouse effect
• Climate change – Climate sensitivity, and cause of climate change – Evidence of climate change – Future scenarios
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Introduction • Atmospheric dynamics is very close to ocean dynamics,
density of the atmosphere is 1000 times smaller than water
• Atmosphere dynamics is in essence also the Navier Stokes equations for a thin layer of gas on a rotating sphere
• Transport of energy is completely different for oceanic and atmospheric processes
• Time and length scales are completely different for the ocean and the atmosphere,
• You should be familiar with the difference between meteorology and climatology
• Human intervention is visible in the ocean and atmosphere, actually, both issues are coupled.
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Hydrostatic equilibrium
z
Ideal gas law
P: pressure, ρ: density, g:gravity, T:temperature, z: altitude, m: molecular mass, k: Bolzmann constant Source: Ch4 PS book
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Consequence
On Earth:
T : 288 Kelvin
H : 8.5 km
Source: Ch4 PS book
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Thermal wind equations Earlier in the tides lectures we found:
For the discussion that follows we simplify the equations to:
where ug and vg are geostrophic velocities: Source: tides lectures
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Thermal wind equations
€
We have :− fv = −∂Φ ∂x
andfu = −∂Φ ∂y
where Φ is called the geopotential which comes from the hydrostatic equation
dΦ = −dPρ
= vsdP
where vs is called the specific volume, for this there is a model that depends on pressure, salinity (only in oceanography) and temperature
Source: Gill book
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The geopotential height H or Zg
• The geopotential ϕ is describes the position dependent energy per unit mass.
• Position dependent energy is also called the potential energy in mechanics
€
φ = g(ϕ,λ,z)dz0
H
∫
Zg =φg0
Formal definition
Mean sea level gravity approximation
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€
In oceanography and meteorology there is a so - calledequation of state which describes the physical propertiesof water or air :δ = vs(S,T, p) − vs(S0,T0, p0)
so that :
-Φ' = δ dp0
P
∫
And therefore we can generate equations like :
-f {vg(p1)-vg(p2)} = ∂{Φ'(p1) −Φ
'(p2)}∂x
+ f {ug(p1)-ug(p2)} = ∂{Φ'(p1) −Φ
'(p2)}∂y
In meteorology :
Φ1 −Φ2 = p−1
p1
p2
∫ RT dp = RT ln(p2 p1)Source: Gill book
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500 hPa + wind 4-feb-2009 15Z
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Jet Stream
Source: www.fas.org
Flight times (KLM):
AMS->SFO: 11h 15m
SFO->AMS: 10h 35m
Distance 8808 km
Speed1 = 783 km/h
Speed2 = 832 km/h
Delta = 49 km/h
Extreme jet stream speeds are much larger (>200 km/h)
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Summary thermal wind equation
• By a field experiment with XBTs or radiosondes you can always compute ∇Φ which allows you to derive u and v profiles for the geostrophic wind speed
• In oceanography there is a level of no motion discussion, the deep ocean is motionless
• In meteorology you always have the ground level as a reference
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Hadley cells
Source: wikipedia
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Radiative equilibrium (holds for any object in space)
€
Output :Fout = 4π R2εσ T 4
T : temperatureσ : Stefan - Boltzmann cstε : emissivity of the Earth
€
Input :
Fin = (1− Ab ) Lsun4πrsun
2 πR2
Lsun : Luminosity of the Sunrsun : Earth Sun distanceR : radius EarthAb : Bond Albedo
€
Teq =FsunrAU2(1− Ab )4εσ
⎛
⎝ ⎜
⎞
⎠ ⎟
1/ 4
263K on Earth (it is too low)
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Source: UCAR
Top of atmosphere
spaceflight
You
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Thermal structure of the atmosphere • The thermal structure of the atmosphere (dT/dz) is
determined by sources and transport of heat energy. • Major sources:
– Sunlight is the dominant source, it is absorbed at the surface, the atmosphere where it is less opaque (optical depth), or dust in the atmosphere
– The planet’s surface and dust are infrared radiators • Minor sources:
– Internal heat sources on the planet (Think of volcanoes and geysers, or the large gaseous planets)
– Charged particle precipitation in the aural zones and thermospheric winds that heat the entire planet
– Joule heating from electric currents in the ionosphere
Source: Chapter 4.2 PS book
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Energy transport • Conduction: This only happens in the upper
thermosphere and the exosphere in the form of collisions between particles.
• Convection: The troposphere is governed by convection, dry adiabatic lapse rate, clouds, etc.
• Radiation: When energy is transported by absorption and re-emission of radiation. A good approximation is the radiative equilibrium of a planet, but more fundamentally you have to solve the radiative transfer problem.
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Dry adiabatic lapse rate
€
dTdz
= −g(z) cp = −γ −1γ
g(z)m(z)k
g(z) : gravitycp : specific heat without changing pressurecv : specific heat without changing volumeγ = cp cv γ is usually 5/3, 7/5 or 4/3 depending on the gas
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What is more efficient? • For an atmosphere that is marginally unstable to
convection we can define (dT/dz) by the dry adiabatic lapse rate equation
• An atmosphere is said to be super-adiabatic and convection causes dT/dz to be greater than the dry adiabatic lapse rate, this happens in the lower troposphere
• When the optical depth is not large and not too small energy is transported by radiation, this happens above the troposphere
• Upper part thermosphere: conduction.
Source PS book ch 3+4
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Radiative transfer problem
dA
ŝ θ
dΩs
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John Tyndall’s experiment 1859
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Infrared spectrum seen by Nimbus IV satellite
Absorption gaps
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Outgoing flux of the Earth in the visible domain
h20
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Infrared spectrum computed with COART code
CO2
O3
Blackbody radiator
CO2
CH4
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Outgoing long-wave forcing as a function of height
Tropopause
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Effect on outgoing long-wave forcing wrt height as a result of doubling the present day carbon dioxide concentrations
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Earth’s global radiation budget
Source: Kiehl and Trenberth [1997]
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Source: http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/images/rad_balance_ERBE_1987.jpg
Earth’s radiation balance vs latitude
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Source: IPCC
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Climate change
• The hockeystick curve(s) – CO2 and temperature last 200 years – CO2 and temperature last 500K years – Climate sensitivity (exercise)
• Changes in the cryosphere – GRACE, altimetry, InSAR
• Projected Sea level change
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CO2 Pre-industrial value = 280 ppmv Current value = 390 ppmv
Source: NOAA
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Source: IPCC
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Source: GISS
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Source: IPCC
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Tree ring proxy data
Source: IPCC
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Paleo Climate
Source: IPCC 0.75+/-0.25 C/(W/m^2)
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Exercise
Given are GHG concentrations and temperature graphs, wanted is the climate sensitivity factor in K / (W/m2), also wanted is the projection of temperature for 2100
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Consequence of global warming
• Sea level change • De-glaciation • Precipitation pattern changes • Biodiversity changes • Future warming
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Sea level
Red: reconstructed Blue: tide gauges Black : altimetry
Source: IPCC
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Source: wikipedia
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Source: wiki
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GRACE
Source: Bert Wouters
200 Gton/yr
150 Gton/yr
GIA GIA
Climate
Earthquake
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Overall Total:-179+/-25 Gt/yr
Local Trends (Gt/yr)
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below 2000 m
above 2000 m
Regional mass loss
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Rignot 2008
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Source: United Nations Environmental Programme
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Source: UNEP
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Source: IPCC
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Exercises • Why is it necessary to distinguish between a longwave
and shortware band when we discuss the Earth’s radiation balance?
• How could you tell whether one Greenhouse gas is more effective than another?
• Explain why a satellite radiometer observes a peak inside all absorption gaps in the IR longwave band.
• Explain at least two independent techniques to reconstruct the mean atmospheric temperature up to 5000 years ago.
• How large is the contribution of Greenland’s ice sheet ablation signal to the global mean sea level.
• Explain how INSar over glacier systems helps to estimate a mass balance of that ice sheet.