The Dynamics of social and political moods in Ukraine

International Republican Institute

Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization

Rating Group Ukraine

with funding from the National Endowment for Democracy

1

Public Opinion Survey

Residents of

Ukraine

February 17 - March 7, 2012

Methodology

The survey was conducted by the Public Opinion and Market research company Baltic Surveys/Gallup on

behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.

The sample consisted of 1,201 permanent residents of Ukraine older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote

and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion.

The sample design was a multi-stage random sample:

Stage one: Ukraine is divided into 27 official administrative regions (25 regions of Ukraine,

Kyiv and Sevastopol). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed.

Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes

according to the size of population (City more than one million, 500,000-999,000, 50,000-

499,000, 50,000-99,000, 50,000 and less, village)

Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was

proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each

region. The survey was conducted in 90settlements.

Stage three: primary sampling units were described. The closest birthday rule was used for

selection of the respondent. The households were selected using the random route method.

Data were collected on February 17 – March 7, 2012, through face-to-face interviews with the respondents.

The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.

Response rate – 56 percent.

2 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, February-March 2012

MOOD OF UKRAINE


Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction

or wrong direction?

13

71

73

16

14

13

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nov 2011

March 2011

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer


5

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right

direction or wrong direction?

1611

72

1017

1412

7278 69

1415

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

West Center South East

Don't know, no answer

Wrong direction

Right direction

IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, February-March 2012

Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed?

1

1

6

6

37

39

36

34

18

18

2

2

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nov 2011

March 2012

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same

Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer


7

Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed?

1 1 2

34

33

18 16

2 3 3 2

5 75

5

3939

35

42

3335

2415

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Worsened a lot

Worsened somewhat

Stayed the same

Improved somewhat

Improved a lot


In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to

change?

1

7

8

30

32

32

32

17

15 12

113

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nov 2011

March 2012

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know, no answer


9

In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will

change?

1 2

3233

35

35 39 26

28

17 13

1812

9 1113 14

998

7

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Worsen a lot

Worsen somewhat

Stay the same

Improve somewhat

Improve a lot


10

Regardless of your passport, what nationality do you consider yourself to be?

74

76

12

11

10

9

2

3

2

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Nov 2011

March 2012

Ukrainian Russian Soviet Other Don't know, no answer


11

Regardless of your passport, what nationality do you consider yourself to be?

94

86

5862

3

4

19

19

1

6

12

16

2 3

7

14 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Other

Soviet

Russian

Ukrainian


ISSUES


Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following

methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?

69

58

53

46

29

28

21

17

25

34

38

44

62

63

70

75

6

8

9

10

9

9

9

8

Collecting signatures for

petition, letter

Legal demonstrations

Legal strikes

Boycott

Demonstrations without

permission

Strikes without permission

Blocking of major roads

Occupation of buildings or

enterprises

Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion




West Ukraine

74

64

64

53

29

30

23

17

21

30

29

40

64

63

69

75

5

6

7

7

7

7

8

8


petition, letter


Legal strikes

Boycott


permission




enterprises





Center Ukraine

68

58

52

42

30

26

17

18

23

31

36

46

58

63

72

71

9

11

12

12

12

11

11

11


petition, letter


Legal strikes

Boycott


permission




enterprises





South Ukraine

55

41

35

29

18

15

18

10

38

50

53

58

72

74

72

81

6

9

12

13

10

11

10

9


petition, letter


Legal strikes

Boycott


permission




enterprises





East Ukraine

75

67

57

55

34

35

26

20

22

28

38

37

59

58

68

74

3

5

5

8

7

7

6

6


petition, letter


Legal strikes

Boycott


permission




enterprises



Should Ukraine cooperate with the United States on the following issues or not?

18

82

80

78

71

63

43

11

12

14

17

23

43

7

7

8

12

14

14

0 20 40 60 80 100

Science

Healthcare

Economics and trade

issues

Social sphere

Rule of law and

democratic development

Military cooperation

Should cooperate Should not cooperate Don't know, no answer



West Ukraine

19

88

84

82

82

63

53

7

9

11

9

23

37

5

7

7

9

14

10

0 20 40 60 80 100

Healthcare

Economics and trade

issues

Science

Social sphere

Rule of law and






Center Ukraine

20

78

78

75

64

60

45

13

13

17

24

26

41

9

9

8

12

14

14

0 20 40 60 80 100

Science

Economics and trade

issues

Healthcare

Social sphere

Rule of law and






South Ukraine

21

81

80

79

71

59

37

9

10

10

14

23

47

10

10

11

15

18

16

0 20 40 60 80 100

Science

Healthcare

Economics and trade

issues

Social sphere

Rule of law and






East Ukraine

22

80

80

73

71

59

38

14

14

20

17

28

48

6

6

7

12

13

14

0 20 40 60 80 100

Science

Healthcare

Economics and trade

issues

Social sphere

Rule of law and





Do you approve or disapprove the practice of appointing officials from Donbas to

serve as heads of local state administrations or in other administration positions in

your city/region?*

4

3

10

12

22

19

47

44

17

22

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Nov 2011

March 2012

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know, no answer


*It is unprecedented that a President would appoint officials to regional

positions across Ukraine almost exclusively from one oblast, which happens to

be his home oblast.

24

Do you approve or disapprove the practice of appointing officials from Donbas to serve as

heads of local state administrations or in other administration positions in your city/region?

1 3 3 6

18

23

16

5948

44

26

17 2024 26

26

695

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Strongly disapprove

Somewhat disapprove

Somewhat approve

Strongly approve


What is your opinion about the idea that heads of state administrations should be

elected by the citizens, not appointed by the president?

40

33

32

33

8

7

6

6

14

21

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Nov 2011

March 2012

Very positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative Very negative Don't know, no answer


26

What is your opinion about the idea that heads of state administrations should be

elected by the citizens, not appointed by the president?

4136

28 28

5

99

85

7

5

1418

2327

3033

3632

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Very negative

Somewhat negative

Somewhat positive

Very positive


Would you support the international community freezing the international assets of

and suspending visas for Ukrainian officials, including judges, engaged in corrupt

practices?

59

57

22

25

4

3

2

3

13

12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Nov 2011

March 2012

Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know, no answer


28

Would you support the international community freezing the international assets of and

suspending visas for Ukrainian officials, including judges, engaged in corrupt practices?

6154

6053

3 23

4

2

3 4

1017

9 11

29

25

23

22

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Strongly oppose

Somewhat oppose

Somewhat support

Strongly support


If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be

with?

42

36

40

43

3

4

15

17

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Nov 2011

March 2012

The European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know, no answer


30

If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be

with?

63

41

17 19

63

3

1620 20

14

6460

34

15

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Other

Customs Union with

Russia, Belarus and

Kazakhstan

The European Union


Do you think Ukraine should give away part or its entire gas transportation system to

Russia if it would mean a reduction in the import price Ukraine pays for gas?

2 7 74 3 14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

March 2012

Yes, should give its entire gas transportation system

Yes, should give part of its gas transportation system

No, should not give away its gas transportation system

Other



32

Do you think Ukraine should give away part or its entire gas transportation system

to Russia if it would mean a reduction in the import price Ukraine pays for gas?

4 3 2

84 74 65

22

2

4

10 13 15 18

1167

4

74

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Other

No, should not give

away its gas

transportation system

Yes, should give part of

its gas transportation

system

Yes, should give its

entire gas transportation

system


Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for

Ukraine?

All mentioned issues

54

43

39

35

25

19

17

14

12

9

6

6

5

3

2

4

1

Unemployment

Low industry production

Corruption within the state bodies

Control over price growth

Social protection for poor

Political instability

Government incompetence

Crime

Relations with Russia

Delay in salary/pension payments

Hryvnia devaluation

Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water

Rights to land ownership

Russian Black Sea Navy presence

Russian language status

Other

Difficult to answer, no answer



Ukraine? November 2011


52

44

42

36

28

21

20

13

9

8

6

4

3

2

2

3

1

Unemployment







Crime

Hryvnia devaluation







Other




Ukraine?

All mentioned issues, West Ukraine

60

40

39

26

22

21

21

15

14

9

4

4

3

2

2

5

2

Unemployment








Crime

Hryvnia devaluation






Other




Ukraine?

All mentioned issues, Center Ukraine

47

43

39

30

27

20

19

14

11

9

7

7

5

5

2

4

1

Unemployment







Crime





Hryvnia devaluation



Other




Ukraine?

All mentioned issues, South Ukraine

56

51

44

39

24

17

13

13

9

9

8

4

2

2

2

2

1

Unemployment







Crime





Hryvnia devaluation



Other




Ukraine?

All mentioned issues, East Ukraine

54

45

41

37

28

18

17

13

13

10

9

6

5

2

3

Unemployment







Crime



Hryvnia devaluation




Other



you personally?


57

51

34

24

21

21

13

11

10

10

9

6

5

2

1

8

1


Unemployment





Crime


Hryvnia devaluation







Other




you personally? November 2011


55

46

41

23

22

20

13

13

11

9

6

5

4

3

1

7

2


Unemployment





Crime

Hryvnia devaluation








Other




you personally?

All mentioned issues, West Ukraine

62

48

25

24

19

15

14

13

13

10

9

6

3

2

13

2

Unemployment





Crime



Hryvnia devaluation






Other




you personally?

All mentioned issues, Center Ukraine

48

43

39

26

26

18

14

13

12

12

10

8

4

1

1

8

1


Unemployment






Crime




Hryvnia devaluation




Other




you personally?

All mentioned issues, South Ukraine

67

53

34

27

22

21

13

9

7

5

5

4

4

2

4

1


Unemployment






Crime



Hryvnia devaluation




Other




you personally?

All mentioned issues, East Ukraine

68

49

35

23

21

21

14

14

10

10

8

8

2

2

1

9


Unemployment





Crime

Hryvnia devaluation








Other


POLITICS


How do you think the 2012 parliamentary elections will be?

3

4

15

16

36

35

27

29

19

16

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Nov 2011

March 2012

Absolutely free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know, no answer


47

How do you think the 2012 parliamentary elections will be?

2 5 3 3

1213 19 20

4331

35 33

29

3726

22

13 14 1721

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Don't know, no

answer

Absolutely not free

and fair

Somewhat not free

and fair

Somewhat free and

fair

Absolutely free and

fair


Which candidate are you more likely to support in the parliamentary elections from

your district?

28 45 27

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

March 2012

Candidate who pays more attention to the solution of problems of development of Ukraine

Candidate who pays more attention to the solution of economic problems of your district

It does not matter to me


49

Which candidate are you more likely to support in the parliamentary elections

from your district?

3125 26

31

55

39

47 40

14

36

27 29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


It does not matter to

me

Candidate who pays

more attention to the

solution of economic

problems of your

district

Candidate who pays

more attention to the

solution of problems

of development of

Ukraine


If you learn that a candidate you support in the parliamentary elections from your

district is involved in corruption how would this affect you?

3 17 69 11

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

March 2012

Most likely will vote for this candidate anyway

Your decision will depend on the seriousness of the corruption accusation

Most likely will not vote for this candidate

Difficult to say


51

If you learn that a candidate you support in the parliamentary elections from your

district is involved in corruption how would this affect you?

2 4 5

20 14 20

18

67 72 6767

11 10 13 10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Difficult to say

Most likely will not

vote for this candidate

Your decision will

depend on the

seriousness of the

corruption accusation

Most likely will vote

for this candidate

anyway


If you learn that the list of the political party you support in the parliamentary

elections contains candidates involved in corruption, how would this affect you?

5 22 62 11

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

March 2012

Most likely will vote for this political party anyway

Your decision will depend on the seriousness of the corruption accusation

Most likely will not vote for this political party

Difficult to say


MASS MEDIA


Which of these sources do you use for obtaining political information?

Ukraine

95

36

34

30

29

11

8

7

4

2

1

0

95

40

40

34

25

13

9

6

3

2

1

1

TV news, programs

Articles in newspapers

Radio news, programs

Relatives, friends

Internet

Colleagues at work

Articles in magazines

Billboards, stands in the streets

Leaflets and the other free information by post

Meetings with politicians

Other

None

March 2012

Nov 2011


Which of these sources do you use for obtaining political information?

2

1

41

7

1

28

26

39

25

15

9

4

9

36

36

8

5

2

7

9

8

12

28

24

35

40

97

29

94

1

4

5

8

12

28

38

2

7

94

2

6

28

30

96

1

TV news, programs

Articles in newspapers

Radio news, programs

Relatives, friends

Internet

Colleagues at work

Articles in magazines

Billboards, stands in the streets

Leaflets and the other free information by post

Meetings with politicians

Other

None

West Ukraine

Center Ukraine

South Ukraine

East Ukraine

55 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Sociological group “Rating” UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, February-March 2012

How many times per week do you access the Internet?

Ukraine

19

25

6

4

7

4

7

6

5

4

54

56

2

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Nov 2011

March 2012

Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never Don't know, no answer


How many times per week do you access the Internet?

23

26

19

30

4

4

4

5

4

4

4

6

8

5

7

4

5

3

4

2

54

57

61

51

2

1

1

2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

West

Center

South

East

Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never Don't know, no answer


Where do you most often regularly access the Internet?

(Users of Internet, N=534)

89

23

4

1

2

0

79

30

7

3

3

4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

At home

At work

At relatives/ friends home

At Internet café

Other


March 2012, N=518

Nov 2011, N=534


Where do you most often regularly access the Internet?

(Users of Internet, N=518)

89

13

5

1

2

88

28

5

3

2

89

27

3

2

1

22

5

0

1

92

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

At home

At work

At relatives/ friends home

At Internet café

Other

West

Center

South

East


SELF-PERCEIVED

SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS


What can you say about the financial status of your family?

11

12

31

30

36

41

17

14

3

2 1

1March 2012

Nov 2011

Need to save money for food

Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes

Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as

a good suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner

Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for

purchasing more expensive things such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator

Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for

purchases like a car or an apartment

I can buy anything at any time

Don't know, no response


What can you say about the financial status of your family?


SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS


64

Gender

Male

45%

Female

55%

Age groups

18-29

23%

50+

43%

30-49

34%


65

Education

University, higher

26%

General secondary

25%

Primary

2%

Vocational secondary

39%

Non-complete

secondary

4%

Non-complete higher

4%

Membership in a political party or non-governmental

organization (NGO)

Member of a party

2%

None

97%

Member of NGO

0.5%


66

Attendance of religious service

A few times a week

2%

Once a week

7%

Once a month

14%

A few times per year

55%

Never

22%

Religion

Orthodox

72% Atheist

5%

Greek Catholic

10%

DK/NA

1%

Believe in God but don't

belong to any religion

9%

Other

3%


67

Sector of employment

Don't work

53%

Public non-government

sector

1%Private sector

29%

State sector

17%

Occupation

Student

2%

Housewife

8%

Unemployed

11%

Other

4%

Higher and medium

level executive

2%

Pensioner

31%

White collar

15%

Blue collar

26%Farmer

1%


68

Language usually spoken at home

Russian and other

language equally

1.0%

Ukrainian and other

language equally

0.1%

Ukrainian and Russian

equally

15%

Ukrainian

45%

Russian

39%

Ethnicity

Other

4%

Ukrainian

81%

Russian

15%


69

REGIONS

East Ukraine

28%

South Ukraine

19%

West Ukraine

23%Center Ukraine

30%


Chernivtsi, Ivano-Fankivsk,

Khmelnytsky, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil,

Volyn and Zakarpattia oblasts

Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Kirovohrad,

Poltave, Sumy, Vinnytsia and Zhitomyr

oblasts

Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk

and Zaporizhia oblasts

Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa and the

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

The Dynamics of social and political moods in Ukraine

News & Politics

Transcript of The Dynamics of social and political moods in Ukraine