The dynamics behind transitions in food chains 15th Tim ... · PDF fileThe dynamics behind...
Transcript of The dynamics behind transitions in food chains 15th Tim ... · PDF fileThe dynamics behind...
Lifting the veil of social unrest about food
The dynamics behind transitions in food chains
15th Febr. 2012, Jan Buurma, Wil Hennen, Eveline van Mil, Tim Verwaart and Volkert Beekman
Acknowledgement
This study was sponsored by:
Wageningen UR
Investment programme
Complex Adaptive Systems
Emerging science
Outline
Transitions in food chains
Unveil the secrets of change
Transition theory: human agency?
Dramaturgical analysis● Who voices what, when and how?
Agent-based simulation● What makes social systems change?
Lifting the veil
Transitions in food chains
Public debates in the Netherlands
1998-2005 Maximum Residue Limits (MRL) Government ignored residue problems Retailers imposed MRL requirements
2001-2007 Animal Welfare Standards Criticism on housing, castration, etc. Retailers adopted ‘Better Life’ label
Transition theory
What about: human agency?societal controversies?issue management?
Dramaturgical analysis
Content analysis (e.g. newspaper articles)Who says what, to whom, why, how?
Dramaturgical approach (i.e. theatre performance)Scripting = story lines and actorsSetting = locations and discoursesStaging = parties involvedPlots = crucial moments
Flow chart of two Dutch public debates
Speech acts
Type of act 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total
Appeal 3 3 2 1 9Warning 3 2 1 2 1 1 10Shaming 4 2 2 4 5 2 1 20Defense 3 1 1 4 1 3 1 14Vision 3 3 4 2 3 1 16Coalition 3 3 1 1 1 9Concern 3 2 1 6Solution 3 5 1 7 16
Total 16 11 7 19 8 11 8 8 4 8 100
Visions and coalitions transform criticism into solutions
Specific roles
Actor/agent
Consum
er ‐ low co
sts
Farm
er ‐ low co
sts
NGO ‐ strategist
Feed/m
eat industry
Farm
er ‐ progressive
Retailer ‐ strategist
Retailer ‐ spokesman
NGO ‐ campaigner
Consum
er‐ responsive
Consum
er ‐ activistic
Total
V I C T I M S S A V I O U R S P R O S E C U T O R SType of act
Appeal 4 3 1 1 9Warning 1 2 1 1 4 1 10Shaming 2 1 16 1 20Defense 4 2 1 4 1 1 1 14Vision 9 1 3 2 1 16Coalition 5 1 2 1 9Concern 5 1 6Solution 5 6 3 1 1 16
Total 12 28 13 14 1 3 22 4 3 100
V I C T I M S S A V I O U R S P R O S E C U T O R S
Agent-based simulation
Opinion dynamics Agents have position x on interval [0, 1]
0 = low meat prices1 = high animal welfare
Agents meet and can update their opinions:
x(t-1)+µ(x’(t-1)–x(t-1)) if |x–x’| < dx(t) =
x(t-1) if |x–x’| d
Where µ is convergence parameter, 0 µ 0.5d is threshold = openness to others
Influence of events
Events? (e.g. incidents, scandals)
NO
YES
Three classes of agents
Citizens / consumers● 1000 (8 subclasses)
NGOs, food chain parties, authorities● 20 (4 subclasses)
Primary producers● 200 (5 subclasses)
Canvas of food chain model
NGO
Ideas and challenges
Analysis of other cases/issues pig production, ...
NGOs, food chain parties, authorities types, roles, interaction
Opinion dynamics citizens and farmers mechanisms, social structures
Formulation of speech acts in model> types, frequencies, effects
Lifting the veil...
Incidents and emotions(media and citizens)
Campaigns and visions(NGOs2x and industry)
Systems and segments(farmers and retailers)
Strong NGOs are a blessing for the nation
Thank you for your attention
We welcome suggestions for improvement and interesting issues to be explored with our model
Contact:[email protected]