The Drivers of China’s CO2 Emissions from 1980 to 2030 · 2017. 12. 8. · Coal Crude Oil Natural...

The Drivers of China’s CO2 Emissions

from 1980 to 2030

Index

� Catching up with the ‘North’

� China’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions

� Input-output analysis

� IO-IPAT SDA� Drivers of CO2 from 1980 to present

� China’s exports and climate change

� Scenario analysis

� Discussion

Dabo Guan

Electricity Policy Research Group

University of Cambridge

• The Economic Miracle: Great economic growth in East Asian prior to 1978 e.g.

Japan and Korea. Economic miracle in China after 1980.

• Improving Lifestyle and Structural Economic Changes:

‘Poverty’ ‘Adequate food

and clothes’‘Well to do’

‘Agriculture’ ‘Industry’ ‘Services’

Catching up with the ‘North’

Rural consumption expenditure patterns Urban consumption expenditure patterns

Catching up with the ‘North’

China’s energy is characterized by four features… …

1. Limited fossil energy resources

• The proven reserves of coal in China account for 11% of the global

reserves;

• China’s proven oil reserves ranks 10th in the world, 12% of world

reserves;

• The reserves of Natural gas accounts for 4% of world total.

However, China is housing 22% of world population, in terms of per

capita availability…. the value is less than half of world average.

China’s Energy

2. Rapid increase of energy production and consumption

China’s Energy

Data source: Chinese official statistics

Fuel types breakdown: energy consumption

China’s Energy


China’s Energy Intensity over the past 40 years

3. Low efficiency:

China’s Energy


2005 Energy Intensity of selected countries

measured in PPP

unit: Btu/$ in 2000 price

2005 Energy Intensity of selected countries

measured in MER

unit: Btu/$ in 2000 price

China’s Energy

Data source: EIA, International Energy Annual 2005

70.7

22.73.23.4

75.8

17.12.24.9

76.2

16.62.15.1

74.6

17.51.86.1

67.8

23.22.46.7

68.9

21.02.97.2

0%

50%

100%

1978 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

China's Energy Consumption Pattern

Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Hydro-power, Nuclear Power, Wind Power

70.3

23.7

2.93.1

74.2

19.0

2.04.8

75.3

16.61.96.2

72.0

18.1

2.87.2

76.4

12.63.37.7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1978 1990 1995 2000 2005

China's Energy Production Pattern

Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Hydro-power, Nuclear Power, Wind Power

4. Coal-dominated energy structure

As a results,

China’s Energy

Environment Consequences, CO2 emissions

• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency reported: China has overtaken the US in CO2 emissions in 2006

Global warming has resulted of China’s sea level rise – 2.5mm per year over the past 50 years,

1.4 times > world average; will continue to increase by 20-60 centimetres in the next decades

(IPCC 2007).

2005 World CO2 emission from the Consumption

and Flaring of Fossil Fuels

China’s CO2 emissions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

1

2

3

4

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2004

Metric tons

Comparison of CO2/capita, for China, India and Japan

India - CO2/capita China - CO2/capita Japan - CO2/capita

The unit for Japan is the right-side y axis

However, the per capita emissions is still far lower than Japanese.

China’s Energy

10.4 kg CO2

= 3.6 ~ 6.1 kg CO2

1 lbs

Input-output Analysis

Input Output analysis examines the flows of goods and services and all intermediate transactions among the producing and consuming sectors of a country or a region (Leontief 1986).

Wassily Leontief

3.2 ~ 12 kg CO2

Source: Jamais Cascio, 2007

• I = PAT was first proposed in the early 1970s (Ehrlich and Holdren

1971; Commoner 1972; Ehrlich and Holdren 1972);

• to formalize the relationship between population, human welfare,

technology and environmental impacts

Impact (I) = Population (P) × Affluence (A)× Technology (T)

In our case,

CO2 = POP × GDP/POP × CO2/GDP

IO-IPAT Structural Decomposition Analysis

Impact = Population × Affluence × Technology (I=PAT)

In input-output terms:

• Affluence ---------Final demand

• Technology -------Leontief inverse (I-A)-1

Therefore, incorporating both IPAT and SDA, the IPAT-IO SDA is

ΔCO2= Δp·F·L·ys·yv + p·Δ F·L·ys·yv + p· F·Δ L·ys·yv + p· F· L·Δ ys·yv + p· F· L· ys·Δyv

SDA is defined as "the analysis of economic change by means of a set of

comparative static changes in key parameters in an input-output

table“ (Rose and Chen, 1991)


One of the 120 possible decomposition is:

… …

1)2(t2(t)2 ∆CO∆CO∆CO−

−=

1)(t1)(t1)(t1)(t1)(t(t)(t)(t)(t)(t) −−−−−⋅⋅⋅⋅−⋅⋅⋅⋅= vypp svs yLFyyLF

vv

vvv

ypyp

ypypyp

∆⋅⋅⋅⋅+⋅∆⋅⋅⋅+

⋅⋅∆⋅⋅+⋅⋅⋅∆⋅+⋅⋅⋅⋅∆=

−−−−−−−

−−−

)1t(1)(t1)(t1)(t(t)1)(t1)(t1)(t

(t)(t))1t(1)(t(t)(t)(t)1)(t(t)(t)(t)(t)

ss

sss

yLFyLF

yLFyLFyLF

For the non-uniqueness problem and solution, please refer to Dietzenbacher and Los

(1998) and Rørmose and Olsen (2005)


We employed 8 time-series input-output tables from 1981 to 2002 …

• Aggregate all IO tables into 18x18 production sectors

• Price deflation: double deflation process

• Eliminate the impact of the “other” column

• Normalise the energy data (37 production sectors + 2 household

sectors) with the IO sector


The Drivers of CO2 Emission – IO-IPAT SDA Perspective


The Contribution of Different Final Demand to the Change of CO2 Emission


Urban Household Appliances

Per capita living

space: 3.5m2 in

1980 to 15.5m2

in 2001.


• China reacted to both the increasing pollution caused by the production of exports

and fears of resource security by raising export taxes on certain products for 3 times

in 13 months.

• Raw metals and chemicals only represent 7% of the emissions from China’s exports

Chinese exports and CO2 emission


0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Tg CO2

Transport/Services

Misc Manufacture

Electronics

Machinery/Equip

Metals

Wood/Mineral Prod

Chemicals/Plastics

Textiles

Ag+Mining

Scenario design and results

China’s annual GDP per capita growth rate averages 8.4% per year until

2010, slowing to 5.0% from 2010-2030.

China’s population would reach 1.5 billion by 2030 according to the

new population policy.

Reference scenario assumptions

Consumption expenditures are 19,850 2002 US$ in PPP per

urban dweller, and 4,600 2002 US$ in PPP per rural resident.

• The share of GDP in 2030: agriculture - 3%, Industry - 50% and services – 47%.

• China’s total final energy consumption would increase by 3.1%/year on average.


Reference scenario result

•China’s total CO2 emissions would reach 11,900 MMT

•Production-related emissions will more than double, from 4,800 MMT in 2005 to

11,000 MMT in 2030.

•Residential direct emission will increase from 213 MMT to about 900 MMT

•If we broaden our timescale to encompass 50 years: China’s annual CO2emissions would increase over 9-fold compared to the beginning of the reforms,

comparing to 3-fold for the US, and 6 times for Japan.

Westernizing lifestyles scenario assumptions


$25,000 in 2002 value


Westernizing scenario result

•China’s total CO2 emissions would reach 21,100 MMT, twice as large as the

number in reference scenario

•Production-related emissions will be 18,100 MMT in 2030.

•Residential direct emission will be 3,000 MMT if every urban Chinese drive as

much as American does.


CCS scenario

•China’s total electricity generation would need to increase to 8,627TWh by 2030

from 2,866 TWh in 2006.

•The newly built coal-fired plants would provide 3,500 TWh of electricity, which

accounts about 40% of the total generations by all coal-fired plants.

•If we assume that all newly installed coal-plants have CCS installed……


The projected production-related CO2 emissions in 2030 would drop 44% to 6,109

MMT from 10,954 MMT in our reference scenario, which is still 80% higher than 2002

emissions.

Discussion

• China’s annual CO2 emissions have increased more than fourfold since the

economic reforms began in 1978.

• Per capita GDP growth was the major factor in driving the increase of Chinese

CO2 emissions while efficiency gains reduced the emissions significantly.

• However, efficiency gains will be less effect if China continues to develop in a

similar manner as it has in recent decades.

• Our reference scenario projects a threefold increase in production-related

emissions in the next three decades over 2002 level; five-fold by westernized

lifestyle scenario.

• With the best available technology – CCS, CO2 will keep increasing about

80% of 2002 level.

Discussion

• China is a non-Annex B country in the Kyoto Protocol, but it’s the largest

contributor to climate change.

• China has several arguments for why it should not be required to limit its CO2emissions in the short term, for example exports.

• Assuming that at this point China would commit to reduce its 2030 CO2emissions to its 2000 level…

• China’s CO2 emission would need to drop more than 320%, from 11,900

MMT based on our reference scenario to about 3,200 MMT.

• All Chinese sectors that consume coal would be required to install CCS

devices.

• There are many hurdles in implementing new energy technologies in

China.

• Therefore further attention must be paid to the other driving forces, namely per

capita consumption volume and increasingly, the structure of consumption.

World Consumption Classes in 2006

Source: Modified from Alan Durning (1992)

Discussion

Challenging people to think differentlyChallenging people to think differentlyChallenging people to think differentlyChallenging people to think differently…………

about our environment!about our environment!about our environment!about our environment!

Dabo Guan: [email protected]

Thank you!

The Drivers of China’s CO2 Emissions from 1980 to 2030 · 2017. 12. 8. · Coal Crude Oil Natural...

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