The Determinants of Redeveloping Sites in a City- the Taipei Experience Tzuchin Lin, Yu-Hsiang Tsai...
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Transcript of The Determinants of Redeveloping Sites in a City- the Taipei Experience Tzuchin Lin, Yu-Hsiang Tsai...
The Determinants of Redeveloping Sites in a City- the Taipei ExperienceTzuchin Lin, Yu-Hsiang TsaiDept. of Land EconomicsNational Chengchi UniversityTAIWAN
1ERES 13 June-16 June 2012, Edinburgh
Outlines
Site Redevelopment in a City
Variable Selection and Visual Inspection
Regression Model and Results
Conclusions
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Site Redevelopment in a City
Years Sin-Yi Housing price index (Q4)
New Floor Space as % of total stock
Household Units
2001 105.93 2.12% 894,7632002 107.91 2.11% 906,9882003 115.95 1.91% 914,7162004 132.08 1.94% 923,3252005 145.45 1.57% 933,1102006 166.64 1.46% 941,3172007 181.53 1.67% 947,7452008 182.47 1.93% 958,4332009 220.03 969,418
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Housing price, new floor spaces, and household units over time
Site Redevelopment in a City
Built sites need to be redeveloped– buildings are short of supply– buildings have been significantly
deteriorated A city– where land is scarce– site redevelopment is commonly
observed– Lin (2012): half of demolished buildings
only reached half of their physical life
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Site Redevelopment in a City
When a building was torn down– benefits from a new building exceed the
benefits of continuing use of an old building (demolition costs considered)
– previous studies focused on what determines the timing of demolishing a building
– what determines the redevelopment pace of a city as a whole through replacement of buildings
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Site Redevelopment in a City
Taipei– 9,593 inhabitants per km2
– housing price more than doubles within last 10 years
– an ideal place for investigation
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Site Redevelopment in a City
Factors that affect site redevelopment – macro factors: income level, housing
stock, population changes– site and building: zoning, building age,
land acquisition– location: distance to city centre,
accessibility to facilities
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Variable Selection and Visual Inspection
Data Sources– government records-- permits to demolish and construct a
building (2001-2009)-- public buildings and public facilities are
excluded– government statistics-- population, household number, income,
building age, building vacancy rate– city zoning map-- metro stations
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Variable Selection and Visual Inspection Analytical unit- neighborhood
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Variable Selection and Visual Inspection
Percentage of net floor space
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Net floor spacesMax. allowable floor spaces over 9 years
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Variable Selection and Visual Inspection
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A high-high a new metro line
B high-high
financial hub(Taipei 101)
C low-low old and run-down neighborhoods
A
BC
unit-Lihigh-highlow-lowlow-high
Regression Results Dependent variable – percentage of net floor space
Independent variable– rate of changes in population– rate of changes in household number– income level (low, medium, high) – average building ages– variation of building ages– building vacancy rate– metro station (yes, no)
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Net floor spacesMax. allowable floor spaces over 9 years
Regression Results14
Dependent varIndependent var
Rate of net floor space increase β Standard-ized β T value P value
Constant 0.209* -- 2.544 0.011Rate of changes in population
-0.022 -0.017 -0.195 0.846Rate of changes in household number
0.531** 0.446 4.684 0.000Income level: medium 0.042** 0.117 2.718 0.007Income level: high 0.089** 0.178 3.308 0.001Average building ages -
0.004** -0.188 -2.549 0.010Variation of building ages -0.106 -0.110 -1.542 0.124Building vacancy rate -0.119 -0.042 -1.152 0.250Metro station: yes 0.042** 0.119 2.619 0.009R2 0.276**Unit-Li number 449
* : α<0.05**: α<0.01
Spatial Regression15
* : α<0.05**: α<0.01
Conclusions Taipei has continued growing through
replacement of old buildings– increase: 386, decrease: 22, unchanged: 41
(mostly in building-restricted areas) Household number matters more than
population: demographical changes
New floor supply was unable to press down the rising price
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Site redevelopment has not produced spillover effects
New floor supply are more likely to appear in wealthy neighborhoods than in run-down areas
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Thank you for your listening!
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