The Deliberate and Sustained Oversupply of the Engineering...

The Deliberate and Sustained Oversupply of the Engineering Labour Market by the

Australian Federal Government

2012-13 onwards

Jim Oakley

www.engineeroversupply.weebly.com

2 OversupplyoftheEngineeringLabourMarket

Contact:[email protected] May2017Revision0 April2017Copyright© JimOakley2017Thisarticlemaybedownloaded,copiedandrepublishedfornon-commercialpurposesonly.Incopiedandrepublishedarticles,theauthormustbeappropriatelycredited,andalinkprovidedtothefollowingwebsite:http://www.engineeroversupply.weebly.comAnyarticlescopiedorrepublishedcannotbeedited.

OversupplyoftheEngineeringLabourMarket 3

Table of Contents

Section Page No.

Summary 5

Acronyms 8

1 Introduction 9

2 EngineeringOccupationsConsideredinthisReport 9

3 InternetJobVacancies 10

4 DepartmentofEmploymentLabourMarketRatings 12

5 EngineeringUnemployment 14

6 OutlookUntilNovember2020 17

7 ThePictureSoFar 18

8 FactorsInfluencingUnemployment 19

9 MigrationOversupply 20

10 UnderstandingSkilledMigration 28

11 RecentDomesticUniversityGraduates 41

12 MigrantEngineers 45

13 EngineersAustralia 48

14 AustralianCouncilofEngineeringDeans 59

15 ProfessionalsAustralia 62

16 ReasonsWhytheFederalGovernmentHasDeliberatelyOversuppliedtheEngineeringLabourMarket

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17 Solutions 68

18 Conclusions 72

19 References 73

Appendix1 EngineeringOccupationsIncludedinthisReport 85

Appendix2 2331ChemicalandMaterialsEngineers 86


Section

Page No.

Appendix3 2332CivilEngineeringProfessionals 89

Appendix4 2333ElectricalEngineers 92

Appendix5 2334ElectronicsEngineers 95

Appendix6 2335Industrial,MechanicalandProductionEngineers 98

Appendix7 2336MiningEngineers 101

Appendix8 2339OtherEngineeringProfessionals 104


Summary BackgroundOverthelastseveralyears,theAustralianFederalGovernmenthasdeliberatelycreatedamajoroversupplyintheengineeringlabourmarket.Theevidencetodemonstratethis,andthereasonsdrivingthestrategy,arediscussedinthisreport.Themeanstopreventfurtheroversupplyandtobringthemarketbackintobalanceareoutlined.In the two phases of the resources boom, which occurred in 2004-08 and 2010-12,demandforengineerswasexceptionallystrong.Duringtheseboomyears,immigrationprovidedanimportantsourceofengineeringlabour.Followingthesecondphaseoftheresources boom, as demand for engineers fell sharply, the engineering labourmarketarrivedatapointwhere,accordingtoGovernmentassessments,therewasnoshortageofengineersinmostengineeringoccupations.Thiswasin2012-13.Since that time, overall job vacancies for engineershaveplummeted to about thirdofwhat theywereduring thepeakof thesecondphaseof theresourcesboom.Formostengineeringoccupations,vacancies inDecember2016werebetween20%and25%oftheirpeak in2011or2012.Theonlysustained increase invacancieshasoccurred forCivil Engineering Professionals; there has been no increase for the other engineeringbranches.Evenwiththedramaticfallindemandforengineeringlabour,theFederalGovernmenthascontinuedtomaintainveryhighlevelsofengineeringimmigration.Thisisdespiteagenerally bleak outlook for engineering occupations over the five years to the end of2020,basedon forecastsby theAustralianGovernment’sDepartmentofEmployment.TheoutlookismoderatelypositiveforCivilEngineeringProfessionals.OversupplyThenumberofapplicantsperengineeringvacancymorethantripledbetween2011-12and2015-16as themanyunemployedandunderemployedprofessional andgraduateengineers, aswell as thosedisplaced into other occupations, sought to find a suitableplace in the engineering workforce. The number of applicants per vacancy inengineeringin2015-16wasfarhigherthanforanyotherprofessionmonitoredbytheDepartmentofEmployment.Aswellas this,due to theFederalGovernment’sdecisionnot to moderate the annual level of engineering immigration, the ratio of migrantengineers to job vacancies increased dramatically between 2012-13 and 2015-16. Bysetting the ratio of migrant engineers:vacancies to an index of 1.00 in 2012-13, theincreaseintheratioby2015-16foreachengineeringUnitGroupcanbereadilyseen,asshowninTableS1.Itisestimatedthatsince2012-13,theGovernmenthasadmittedatleast10,800migrantengineers in excess of labour market requirements. Consistent with the generaloversupply of engineers, many Australian graduate engineers are having difficultyfindingfull-timeworkthatisbroadlyrelevanttotheirfieldofstudy.TableS2documentsthe latest (2015) data for recent Australian graduate engineers working full-time inengineering,scientific,technicalormanagementrolesasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timework.


TableS1RatioofmigrantengineerstovacanciesANZSCOCode

UnitGroup Ratioin2012-13

Ratioin2015-16

2331 ChemicalandMaterialsEngineers

1.00 3.23

2332 CivilEngineeringProfessionals 1.00 1.35

2333 ElectricalEngineers 1.00 3.14

2334 ElectronicsEngineers 1.00 3.26

2335 Industrial,MechanicalandProductionEngineers

1.00 2.40

2336 MiningEngineers 1.00 4.282339 OtherEngineering

Professionals 1.00 1.65

TableS2Graduateengineers

Engineeringdiscipline %Workinginrelevantjob

Aeronautical 42.0Chemical 50.8Civil 68.0Electrical 70.2Electronic/computer 71.0Mechanical 59.9Mining 63.9Otherengineering 57.4

ReasonsThe Federal Government has persisted with the deliberate oversupply of theengineering labourmarket for twomain reasons. The first is to satisfy the incessant,self-interesteddemandsofthebusiness,migrationanduniversitysectors.Thesecondisto help meet its massive annual immigration targets, designed to bolster short-termgrossdomesticproductfollowingthedeclineofthesecondstageoftheresourcesboom.Engineers, along with ICT professionals and accountants, have been targeted by theGovernmenttomakeupadisproportionately largepercentageoftheskilledmigrationprogram, particularly the permanent migration component. These three professionalgroupsareeasytargetsbecausetheyarelargelynon-unionised,andtheyarenotpartofthecoreconstituenciesofthemajorpoliticalparties.SolutionsThesolutiontothemajoroversupplyoftheAustralianengineeringlabourmarketistostop engineering immigrationuntil themarket is brought back into balance. Thiswillallowtimeforunemployed,underemployedanddisplacedengineerstobeabsorbedintosuitablepositionsintheworkforce.ThiswillbenefitAustralianprofessionalengineers,Australian graduate engineers, and recentmigrant engineers who have been grantedpermanentresidency.


Toachievethis, the firststep is for theFederalGovernment toremoveallengineeringoccupations associatedwith theUnitGroups inTable S1 from theMediumandLong-termStrategicSkillsList(MLTSSL),knownpriortoApril2017astheSkilledOccupationList (SOL). This will prevent access to three main visa subclasses, in particular thesubclass 189 permanent residence visa. At present, most engineering immigrationoccurs via the subclass 189 visa. Access will also be prevented to the subclass 485(GraduateWorkStream)temporaryresidencevisa,whichallowsinternationalstudentswho have graduated from an Australian institution to gain entry to the Australianengineering labour market. All engineering occupations should be removed from theMLTSSLforthreeyears,withtheexceptionofthoseassociatedwithUnitGroups‘2332Civil Engineering Professionals’ and ‘2339 Other Engineering Professionals’, whichshouldberemovedfortwoyearstoaccountforthelowerlevelsofoversupply.The second step is to remove all engineering occupations associated with the UnitGroupsinTableS1fromtheShort-termSkilledOccupationList(STSOL),knownpriortoApril 2017 as the Consolidated Sponsored Occupation List (CSOL). This will preventaccess to another threemainvisa subclasses, inparticular thenotorious subclass457temporary residence visa, and the subclass 186 permanent residence visa. Allengineeringoccupations shouldbe removed from the STSOL for three years,with theexception of those associatedwithUnit Groups ‘2332 Civil Engineering Professionals’and ‘2339OtherEngineeringProfessionals’,whichshouldbe removed foroneyear toaccountforthelowerlevelsofoversupply.Access should also be removed to another four visa subclasseswhich do not requireoccupationstobelistedontheMLTSSLorSTSOL.Theseincludethesubclass485(Post-Study Work Stream) temporary residence visa and the subclass 476 temporaryresidence visa, both ofwhich – subject to specific requirements – allow internationalstudents access to the Australian engineering labour market. Access to these visasshouldceaseforthreeyears.Federal Government expertise in understanding and predicting labour marketrequirementsresideswiththeDepartmentofEmployment,andtoa lesserextentwiththeDepartmentofEducationandTraining.Theoccupations listedon theMLTSSLandthe STSOL should be determined by the Department of Employment, and theDepartmentof ImmigrationandBorderProtectionmustno longerhaveanypower tochangethecompositionoftheselists.ThecurrentfocusoftheMLTSSLonincludingoccupationsbasedontheskillsneedsofthe economy in five-to-ten year’s time is irrational. Apart from the fact that it is notpossibletomakeaccuratelabourmarketpredictionsforindividualoccupationssofarinadvance,theconceptofbringinginmigrantworkersnowtomeetdemandinfive-to-tenyears’ time defies the reality of the labour market. In the case of engineeringoccupations, most of which are substantially oversupplied, the ongoing influx ofimmigrantengineerscreatesandentrenchesunemploymentanddisplacementfromtheprofession.Onceanengineerhasnotbeenable topractice in theprofession fora fewyears, the probability of being able to return to the profession is low due to therecruitmentpreferencesofemployers.Given thatmigrantengineerscaneffectivelybebrought into Australia ‘on tap’within three to sixmonths depending on the visa, the


focusoftheMLTSSLforengineersandotheroccupationsshouldbechangedtoaddressoccupationalskillsneedsuptotwoyearsintothefuture.Acronyms ABS AustralianBureauofStatisticsACED AustralianCouncilofEngineeringDeansAIG AustralianIndustryGroupANZSCO AustralianandNewZealandStandardClassificationofOccupationsAusIMM AustralasianInstituteofMiningandMetallurgyAWPA AustralianWorkforceProductivityAgencyCSOL ConsolidatedSponsoredOccupationListDoE DepartmentofEmploymentDE&T DepartmentofEducationandTrainingDIBP DepartmentofImmigrationandBorderProtectionGCA GraduateCareersAustraliaGDP GrossDomesticProductGFC GlobalFinancialCrisisICT InformationandCommunicationTechnologyMACSM MinisterialAdvisoryCouncilonSkilledMigrationMLTSSL MediumandLong-termStrategicSkillsListNOM NetOverseasMigrationSEW SurveyofEducationandWorkSOL SkilledOccupationListSTSOL Short-termSkilledOccupationListTSS TemporarySkillsShortage(visa)


1. Introduction Therecenttwo-stageresourcesboominAustraliaresultedinanincreaseinAustralia’stermsoftradethatwasunprecedentedinourhistory(Bishopetal.2013;Karunaratne2015).Thefirststageoftheresourcesboomranfrom2004untiltheonsetoftheglobalfinancial crisis (GFC) in 2008. Following the GFC, further resource-based activityboostedtheeconomyduring2010-12.Sincethentheeconomyhasbeensubdued,withsomesectorsperformingbetterthanothers.During the resources boom, Australia’s immigration policies promoted large annualpermanentandtemporaryskilledmigrationintakestosupplementthelocalworkforceinaseeminglyinsatiablejobmarket.Nearlyfiveyearsaftertheresourcesboombeganits final decline, immigration policies still reflect these previous economic conditions.However, therealityof theemploymentmarketnowisverydifferent,andtheFederalGovernment’sdeliberatelyinflexibleapproachtoimmigrationpolicyhashadaseverelynegativeimpactonemploymentprospectsinsomesectors.This report examines how the skilled migration program has been used to create amassive oversupply in the engineering profession, to the detriment of unemployed,underemployed and displaced Australian professional engineers, Australian graduateengineers,andrecentmigrantengineers.2. Engineering Occupations Considered in this Report The engineering occupations included in this report are those listed in theAustralianandNewZealandStandardClassificationofOccupations(ANZSCO)minorgroupingforEngineeringProfessionals(ABS2013a).ANZSCOClassification:MajorGroup: 2 ProfessionalsSub-MajorGroup: 23 Design,Engineering,ScienceandTransportProfessionalsMinorGroup: 233 EngineeringProfessionalsUnitGroups:2331 ChemicalandMaterialsEngineers2332 CivilEngineeringProfessionals2333 ElectricalEngineers2334 ElectronicsEngineers2335 Industrial,MechanicalandProductionEngineers2336 MiningEngineers2339 OtherEngineeringProfessionals.TheindividualoccupationsassociatedwitheachUnitGrouparelistedinAppendix1.


3. Internet Job Vacancies 3.1 Internet vacancy data Figure 1 shows the impact of the resources boom on job vacancies for three groups:professionalengineers;allprofessionals;andallAustralianoccupations.Theboomhadflow-oneffectsforthebroadereconomy,buttherelativeimpactonvacancieswasmorepronounced for engineering than for other professions generally. The three curves inFigure 1 are based on trend data from theDepartment of Employment (DoE) for jobvacancieslistedonSEEK,CareerOneandAustralianJobSearch(DoE2017a,2017b).Forprofessionalengineers,SEEKcoversprobablymore than95%ofadvertisedvacancies.Foreaseofcomparison,thedatainFigure1areindexedsothateachcurvehasavalueof100atJanuary2006.Figure1Internet jobvacancies toDecember2016 forengineers,professionals,and the totalAustralianlabourmarket,indexed(January2006=100)(DoE2017a)

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Theimpactoftheriseanddeclineoftheresourcesboomonengineeringvacancieshasbeenprofound,ascanbeseen fromFigure1.Followingasteep fallbeginning inearly2012,thenumberofengineeringvacanciesinDecember2016wasonly34%ofwhatitwas in January 2012. Looking at a longer time period, the number of engineeringvacancies in December 2016 was 67% of what it was in January 2006, despite theeconomybeing32%largerinSeptember2016thanitwasinMarch2006,asexpressedin constant September 2016 dollar gross domestic product (GDP) terms (ABS 2016a,2017a). In fact, the current employmentmarket formost engineering Unit Groups isworsethanatanytimeinthelast25years(EngineersAustralia2015a),ifnotever,andithasbeenthatwaysincethemiddleof2013.Figure 2 shows internet job vacancies by engineering Unit Group commencing at thebeginning of 2012, using the actual numbers of vacancies. It is only for ‘2332 CivilEngineering Professionals’ that any sustained increase in job vacancies has occurred


during the last five years. The slowly rising trend for this Unit Group began in early2015,andisrelatedtoactivityintheresidentialconstructionsector(DoE2016a).ChartsshowingvacanciesforindividualUnitGroupsarepresentedinAppendices2to8.Figure2MonthlyinternetjobvacanciestoDecember2016forengineersbyANZSCOUnitGroup(actualnumbersbasedonthreemonthmovingaverage,notindexed)(DoE2017c)

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InternetVacanciesbyEngineeringUnitGroup

Chemical&materials Civil

Electrical Electronic

Industrial/mechanical/producHon Mining

Otherengineering

Because the Unit Group vacancies in Figure 2 are based on a three month movingaveragecalculation,theUnitGroupchartsaremoresensitivetorecentchangesthanthebroadervacancy chartspresented inFigure1,whicharebasedon a trend calculationaveragedoverasignificantlylongertimeperiod.3.2 Understanding vacancies It is important to understand what a job vacancy represents. When a companyadvertisesanengineeringjobpublicly,applicantscomefromseveralsources:engineerswhoarealreadyemployedintheprofession;engineerswhohavebeendisplacedfromtheprofessionbutwhoareemployedinotheroccupations;andunemployedengineers.Mostadvertisedjobsareallocatedtoengineerswhoarealreadyemployedasengineers.Ingeneral,itismoredifficultforunemployedengineersandengineersworkinginnon-engineeringjobstowinadvertisedengineeringpositions.When an engineering job is advertised and awarded to an employee of anothercompany, that second companymay then advertise its resulting vacancywhich ariseswhenitsemployeemovesacrosstothefirstcompany.Thejobadvertisedbythesecond


companymaybeawarded toanemployeeofa thirdcompany,andsoon.Somewherealong the line an unemployed engineer, or an engineer currently working in anon-engineering occupation,may be appointed to an advertised engineering position.Thus a substantial proportion of the vacancy numbers actually result from ‘churn’amongstemployedengineers.Advertised vacancies should not be mistaken for new jobs for the engineeringprofession;onlyaminorityofadvertisedvacanciesarenewlycreatedpositions.Itisforthisreasonthatthenumberofinternetvacanciessometimeslooksveryhighinrelationtothesizeoftheworkforceofanengineeringoccupation.Atthemacrolevel, it isonlynewly created jobswhich allow unemployed and displaced engineers to be absorbedintotheengineeringworkforce.Vacancies can, however, be regarded as an index of opportunity. They represent anopportunity for unemployed and displaced engineers to return to the engineeringworkforce. It is for this reason that it is not the absolute number of vacancies that isimportant,butratherthetrendinvacanciesovertime.Forexample,whenvacanciesarehalf of what they were at a previous time, the opportunities have also been halved.Because it is the trend that is important, in subsequent discussion in this reportvacanciesaregenerallyexpressedasanindexratherthanasabsolutevalues.Notallvacanciesareadvertised.Forthegenerallabourmarket,DoEresearchindicatesthat employers use word of mouth to recruit for about 16% of vacancies. Directapproachestoemployersbyjobseekersaccountforfillingabout10%ofvacancies(DoE2016d). The corresponding numbers for the engineering profession are not publiclyavailable even if they are known, but the DoE takes this ‘hidden’ jobs market intoaccount when determining whether or not an engineering occupation is in shortage(Table1).Thereasonableassumptionusedinthisreportisthatthenumberofvacanciesinthe‘hidden’jobsmarketforengineersvariesinproportiontothatforadvertisedjobs.4. DoE Labour Market Ratings The DoE surveys a cross-section of engineering disciplines each year to determinewhetherthereis,or isnot,ashortageofengineers inthosedisciplines.Theresults forthelastfiveyearsaredetailedinTable1.Table1Labourmarketratingsforengineersforthefiveyearsto2015-16(DoE2016a)

ANZSCOCode

Occupation 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

2332-11,12,14,15

Civilengineeringprofessionals

S NS NS NS RD

233311 Electricalengineer S NS NS NS NS233512 Mechanicalengineer S NS NS NS NS233611 Miningengineer

(ex.Petroleum)S S NS NS NS

S=shortage NS=noshortage RD=recruitmentdifficulty


The recruitment difficulty reported for ‘2332 Civil Engineering Professionals’ in2015-16pertainedonly to seniorpositions and roles requiring specialisedexperience(DoE2016a).ItcanbeseenfromTable1thattherehasbeennoshortageofengineersacross most of the assessed occupations from 2012-13 onwards. This assessment issupportedbythedataforthenumberofapplicantspervacancy(Figure3)(DoE2016a).

Figure3Numberofapplicantspervacancyforengineers(DoE2016a)

15.1

30.2

38.143.7

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The level of competition for engineering jobs is currently the highest among allprofessionsmonitoredbytheDoE(2016f)(seeTable2).

Table2Applicationspervacancybyprofession2015-16(DoE2016c)Profession Applicationspervacancy

Engineeringprofessions 48.2Accountants 29.4Informationtechnologyprofessions 29Solicitors 14.6Schoolteachers 10.3Healthprofessions 6.7Nurses 6.7

TheDoE basesmuch of its information on data collected during its annual Survey ofEmployers’ Recruitment Experiences (DoE 2013, 2016g). Because no information iscollectedabouttheexperiencesofengineeringjobseekers(employedorunemployed),interpretationssuchas those inTable1about labourmarketshortagesare inherentlybiasedtowardstheemployers’perspective,ie.thecircumstanceof‘noshortage’islikelyto be declared at a later year than if the experiences of all key stakeholders wereaccountedforintheanalysis.Thisemployerbiascanbeseeninthestatisticforthenumberof‘suitable’applicantsperengineeringvacancy,whichisgivenbytheDoE(2016a)as2.9onaveragefor2015-16,compared with the average of 48.2 applicants per vacancy. Employers typically


interviewatleastthreepeoplepervacancy,butthatdoesnotnecessarilyequatetothenumberof‘suitable’candidates.Inthecurrentdifficultmarketconditionsforjobseekers,manyexperiencedengineersseekingworkorseeking tochangeemployerscannotgetaninterviewintheirownareaofexpertise,eventhoughthereisnoquestionabouttheirsuitability.Otherfactorssuchasagecanleadtosomeengineersbeing ‘lesspreferred’;and in the modern business environment, with some employers seeking to balancefemale-to-male ratioswithin theirorganisations, gendercanplaya real role inwho isdeemed‘suitable’andgetsselectedforaninterview.Larger companies commonly use software to screen resumes. Butmany smaller onesdon’t.Whenfacedwith150-200applicantsforavacancyadvertisedonSEEK(whichisnotuncommonforchemicalengineeringroles,forexample),therecanbeatemptationfor the employer to do an initial screening based on the brief summary informationprovidedbySEEK,whicheffectivelymeansscreeningbasedon job titles.This isnotaparticularlyeffectivetechniquefordeterminingthemost‘suitable’candidates.Employer survey responses about the number of ‘suitable’ applicants per vacancycannot be seen as an objectivemeasure reflecting the real situation. On the contrary,theseassessmentsaresubjective,andareheavilyinfluencedbymarketconditions.Forexample, in 2015-16 in a period of major oversupply of engineering labour, thepercentageof‘suitable’applicantspervacancywasreportedtobe6.0%(2.9/48.2).Yetinaperiodofsignificantlabourshortagein2007-08,thenumberofsuitableapplicantswasreportedtobe19.4%(0.7/3.4)(DoE2016a).Despite the wide range in the number of applicants per vacancy across professions(Table2),thenumberof ‘suitable’applicantsisremarkablyconsistent.In2015-16,thehighest number of ‘suitable’ applicants was recorded for Information TechnologyProfessions(3.1pervacancy),andthelowestwasforNurses(1.6pervacancy).Thattherespective numbers of ‘suitable’ applicants are so closely clustered, despite the widevariation in the number of applicants per vacancy, is not some highly improbablecoincidence.Itiscloselyalignedwiththenumberofpeopleinterviewedforeachrole.Notwithstanding these criticisms, in the author’s opinion the DoE produces the bestavailabledataaboutthestateoftheengineeringlabourmarket.5. Engineering Unemployment ThenationallevelofunemploymentismeasuredbytheABSusingsurveys,accordingtothefollowingcriteria(ABS2013b):

- the unemployed person is aged 15 or over and was not employed during thereferenceweek(ie.theweekthesurveywasconducted);and

- hadactivelylookedforfull-timeorpart-timeworkatanytimeinthefourweeksuptotheendofthereferenceweek;and

- wasavailableforworkinthereferenceweek.A person is considered to be employed if they haveworked at least one hour in thereferenceweek.


Occupational unemployment statistics differ from the national labour forceunemployment statistics in that the occupational statistics exclude two groups ofpeople:thosewhohavebeenunemployedforlongerthantwoyears;andthoseseekingtheir first job (DE&T 2015b). In this report the term ‘labour force’ refers to bothemployed and unemployed engineers, as per the Australian Bureau of Statisticsdefinition(ABS2017b).Theterm‘workforce’referstotheemployedcomponentofthelabourforce.AsdescribedinSection2,thefocusofthecurrentreportisonthe21occupationsintheANZSCOMinorGroup‘233EngineeringProfessionals’(Appendix1).ThedatarelatingtoengineersusedinthisreportareforthoseinthisMinorGroup.UsingFederalGovernmentdatanotpublicallyavailable,EngineersAustraliaperiodicallyreports theestimatedunemployment rate for theengineering labour force (EngineersAustralia2015b,2016e,2017).ItdoesthisbyutilisingtheannualSurveyofEducationand Work (SEW) conducted by the ABS. Full details of the methodology used byEngineers Australia to determine the unemployment rate associated with theengineeringlabourforceonlyrecentlybecameavailable(EngineersAustralia2017).Engineers Australia has determined that 51 ANZSCO occupations represent its‘engineeringteam’,whichincludesnotjustdegree-qualifiedengineersbutalsoassociateengineers with lower level qualifications. Having determined the educationalqualifications associatedwith these 51 occupations, Engineers Australia then extractsaggregateddata from the SEWabout engineering supply, demandandunemploymentbasedonpeoplewiththeseeducationalqualifications.Thiscohortincludespeoplewhoareworkinginengineeringoccupationsandthosewhoarenot.Thedataareaggregatedbecause the small sample sizes of engineering occupations in the SEW make thestandarderrorshigh, and tomaintain statistical validity a larger grouping is required(EngineersAustralia2017).Engineers Australia thus basis its engineering ‘labour force’ on educationalqualificationsratherthanonoccupationalgroupings.Bythismeasure,in2014justover40% of the engineering labour force was not working in engineering occupations(Engineers Australia 2015b), and in 2016 this percentage had increased toapproximately43%(EngineersAustralia2017).Fromtheabovediscussionitcanbeseenthatitisimpossibletousetheunemploymentdata calculated by Engineers Australia to make any conclusions about theunemployment rate for the occupations or occupational groupings considered in thecurrentreport.Atpresent therearecompeting forces impacting theunemploymentrateofengineers.Theriseinthenumberofvacanciesfor‘2332CivilEngineeringProfessionals’(Figure2)willhelptoreducetheunemploymentrate,recognisingthatthisUnitGroupcomprisesapproximately30%ofallEngineeringProfessionalsconsideredinthisreport(Table4).Incontrast,otherengineeringUnitGroupscontinuetobenegativelyaffectedbyarangeofcountervailingfactorssuchas:


• the oil price collapse which commenced in August 2014, affecting capitalexpenditure by oil and gas companies, with flow-on affects to employment inserviceandsupplycompaniesinsubsequentyears

• the completion of the construction and commissioning of LNG plants inQueenslandandWesternAustralia

• continuingcostcuttingintheminingindustry• difficulties in the manufacturing sector, with ongoing layoffs in the steel,

automotiveandpowerindustries• subduedconditionsinotherindustriesinwhichengineerswork.

Theimpactofallthesefactorsisspreadwidelythroughouttheeconomy.Ontopofthis,themigrationofengineerstoAustraliahasremainedatveryhighlevels(Figure4).Thisalso contributes to the tally of unemployed engineers. Engineering migration is thesubjectoffurtheranalysisinSection9.When engineers lose their jobs – nearly always through retrenchment – there areseveral possible outcomes. Some engineers find full-time or (increasingly) part-timeworkelsewhere in theiroccupation.Others,whocannot findwork in theirprofession,findfull-timeorpart-timeworkinanotheroccupation,nearlyalwayslowerskilledandlower paid. In this report these engineers are called displaced engineers. And otherengineersremainunemployed.Table 3 documents the average size of the professional engineering workforce inAustraliaeachyearforthelastfiveyears.

Table3Averageworkforcesizefor‘233EngineeringProfessionals’(ABS2017c)

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16Workforce(thousand) 134.9 144.7 140.6 142.3 130.6

BasedonthedatainTable3,between2011-12and2015-16theengineeringworkforcesize decreased by 3%. The difference between themaximum andminimum values inTable 3 is about 10%. Yet, as shown in Figure 3 the number of applicants per jobvacancy increased by 219% over the time period covered in Table 3. Using thereasonableassumption that thenumberofapplications fromengineersemployed full-time in the profession varies in proportion to the size of the workforce of full-timeemployedengineers,thecontinualincreaseinthenumberofapplicationspervacancyisthereforearesultofacontinualincreaseinthesizeofthecohortofengineerswhoareunemployed, underemployed and displaced from the profession. It is not possible toidentifytherelativemagnitudesofthesethreegroups.For unemployed and displaced engineers, it is very difficult to findwork outside theprofession at a skill level and salary level comparable to that which they had in theengineeringprofession. This is because tomove to anotherprofession, or even into askilled trade, requires amajor commitmentof time (years) and financial resources toobtain suitable qualifications. This is frequently not possible for people with familyand/orfinancialcommitments.Othersmaynothavetheinterestordesiretocomplete


yetanotherdegree.Whenengineersapplyfor jobsoutsidetheirfieldofexpertisetheyare competing against others who have qualifications and experience more directlyrelevanttotheposition.Experiencedengineersmayhaveskillsinprojectmanagementand generalmanagement, andmight find roles in these areas. Other than that, in theabsence of further qualifications, alternative career options requiring the skillspossessedbyengineersareverylimited.There is a belief among bureaucrats in Canberra that displaced engineers areappropriatelyutilisedinthegeneralskilledlabourmarket,andthatthecountrybenefitsfromthis‘diffusion’ofskills.Inthecurrenteconomicclimateemployersensurethatthisbelief remains a fantasy, as they are very focused on recruiting candidates withqualificationsandexperiencedirectlyrelevanttotheirneeds.Theimpactofunemploymentonindividualsissignificant.InAustralia,asofNovember2015,theaveragedurationofunemploymentfor25-54yearoldswas49weeks,andforthose55yearsandoveritwas68weeks(AustralianHumanRightsCommission2016).Thecorrespondingnumbers forengineersareunknown,but inanextremelysubduedemploymentmarketwherecompetitionforeachvacancyisintense,manythousandsofengineers face a longwait to get back into theprofession, assuming they can achievethatoutcome.Commentingonskilledmigrantswhocan’tgetworkintheirprofession,theProductivityCommission(2016)observedthat:

“…after several years in a low-skilled job, professional skills are likely todegenerate,a‘gap’inthecurriculumvitaeappears,andthelikelihoodofeveracquiring a job at the previous skill level decreases…” (ProductivityCommission2016,p.268).

ThiscommentalsoappliestoAustralianswhocan’tgetworkintheirprofession.Oneofthe principal aims of the current report is to prevent this undesirable outcome fromhappening to Australian professional engineers, Australian graduate engineers, andrecentmigrantengineerswhohavebeengrantedpermanentresidency.6. Outlook until November 2020 The DoE’s (2016d) predictions for the change in the engineeringworkforce betweenNovember 2015 and November 2020 are presented in Table 4. The far right-handcolumn represents the total projected growth in the employment levels over thefive-yearperiodtoNovember2020.Overall, the outlook ranges from very subdued to very poor, except for ‘2332 CivilEngineering Professionals’ for which modest annual growth is predicted. This isreflectedintheincreaseinvacanciesforthisUnitGroup(Figure2andAppendix3).Thesmallgrowthpredictedfor‘2333ElectricalEngineers’hasnotyeteventuated,basedonvacancies(Figure2andAppendix4).


Table4ProjectedemploymentlevelsinNovember2020byengineeringUnitGroup(DoE2016b)ANZSCOCode

Unitgroup EmploymentlevelNovember2015(thousand)

ProjectedemploymentlevelNovember2020(thousand)

ProjectedemploymentgrowthtoNovember2020(%)


7.2 7.2 -0.4

2332 CivilEngineeringProfessionals

43.0 47.2 9.8

2333 ElectricalEngineers 20.8 21.9 5.42334 ElectronicsEngineers 3.8 3.7 -3.42335 Industrial,Mechanical

andProductionEngineers

31.4 29.5 -5.9

2336 MiningEngineers 11.7 9.0 -22.72339 OtherEngineering

Professionals23.2 23.9 3.4

Total 141.0 142.5 1.0The task of predicting employment levels and labour market requirements forindividualUnitGroups is difficult, andbecomes less accurate for each additional yearintothefuturethatprojectionsaremade.TheprojectionsinTable4reflecttheviewofDoEin late2015that therearenoforeseeabledriversofgrowthformostengineeringUnitGroups.TheDoE’s‘JobOutlook’websiteprovidesdetailedinformationonoccupations,includingpredictedfuturegrowthandjobopenings,listedbyUnitGroups(DoE2016e).Thisisacomprehensiveresource.Becauseofthesmallsamplesizesforengineeringoccupationsin the ABS Labour Force Survey and its associated SEW, standard errors are high(Engineers Australia 2015b). This makes unemployment data and labour force dataunreliable for engineering occupations and Unit Groups. For example, employmentlevels for ‘2331 Chemical and Material Engineers’ did not increase by 57% between2013and2014asclaimedonthe ‘JobOutlook’website(DoE2016f);andemploymentlevelsfor‘2334ElectronicsEngineers’didnotdecreaseby54%between2014and2015asclaimed(DoE2016g).Thesenumbersarenonsensical.7. The Picture So Far… EngineeringjobvacanciesinDecember2016werejust34%ofwhattheywerewhentheengineering jobsmarket commenced itsprecipitous collapse inearly2012 (Figure1).The jobmarkethas remainedat low levels sinceat leastmid-2013 forall engineeringUnit Groups considered here, except for ‘2332 Civil Engineering Professionals’ whichhasshownamoderateupturnsincethebeginningof2015(Figure2).The DoE monitors the labour market status of a cross-section of engineeringoccupationseachyear,andconcluded that therehasbeennoshortageofengineers intheassessedoccupationsafter2011-12,withtheexceptionof‘233611Miningengineers


(ex petroleum)’, for which there has been no shortage after 2012-13 (Table 1). Thisoverall assessment is supported by the fact that the number of applicants perengineering vacancy has increased each year since 2011-12 (Figure 3), and that theapplicants-to-vacancy ratio for engineering is now significantly higher than for anyoftheotherprofessionsmonitoredbyDoE(Table2).Collectively unemployment, underemployment and displacement among Australianengineershavebeenrisingsince2011-2012.Globaleventssuchas theoilpricecrash,andsignificantnationaleventssuchasthecompletionofmassiveresourcesprojectsandthe decline ofmajormanufacturing industries have helped to ensure that throughoutthecountrytherehasbeen,andcontinuestobe,asubstantialcohortofengineerswhoareseekingtorejointheprofession.The projected employment growth until November 2020 is negative for four of theseven engineering Unit Groups listed in Table 4. The greatest positive growth isexpected for ‘2332CivilEngineeringProfessionals’,withanannualgrowthrateof just1.9%perannum.8. Factors Influencing the Ability to Rejoin the Profession Engineersoverwhelminglyworkasemployees–asstafforcontractors–forthreemainreasons:1)manyengineeringprojectsoroperationsrequiremultidisciplinaryinput;2)the work is of a scale or complexity that is too great for an individual engineer tocomplete in the required timeframe; and 3) the cost of engineering software is oftenprohibitiveforanindividualtopurchase.Therefore, from the perspective of an engineerwho is unemployed orwho has beendisplaced from the engineering profession, the ability to return to the profession is afunctionof thenumberofavailablevacancies, and theextentof competition for thosevacancies(ie.thenumberofapplicantspervacancy).

=f{ }

The number of vacancies is largely a function of the state of the economy. Evenwithinfrastructure spending, governments cannot significantly influence the number ofvacanciesformostengineeringoccupations.The competition for vacancies comes from several sources: from those already in theengineering workforce; from unemployed or displaced engineers; and from migrantengineerswho have been granted entry toAustralia’s skilledmigration program. TheFederal Government has complete control over the number of migrant engineersenteringtheprogram.

Ability to rejoin

profession

Number of

vacancies

Level of competition

for those vacancies

,


Mechanismsexistwithintheskilledmigrationprogramthatcanpreventthejobmarketfrombeingoversuppliedwith applicants throughexcessive levelsof immigration.Themajor impact of an oversupply of migrant engineers is felt by unemployed,underemployedanddisplacedAustralianengineers,aswellasbythemigrantengineers,whoareallcompetingforthesamelimitednumberofengineeringvacancies.9. Migration Oversupply 9.1 Total engineering migration The mechanisms that exist within the skilled migration program to prevent theengineering job market as a whole from being oversupplied with migrant engineershavenotbeenexercisedby theFederalGovernment.TheGovernmenthasmaintainedvery high levels of engineering immigration despite the huge fall in the number ofengineering vacancies, along with significant unemployment, underemployment anddisplacementfromtheprofessionintheAustralianengineeringcommunity.Theannual levelofengineeringmigration–encompassingbothpermanentskilledandtemporary skilled migration – is shown in Figure 4. The available permanent skilledmigration data cover all relevant permanent visas, whereas the temporary skilledmigrationdataareforthesubclass457visaonly.Informationaboutthenumberofvisasissued to graduate migrant engineers in the following visa categories is not publiclyavailable:

- Temporary Graduate visa (subclass 485)(Graduate Work Stream) visas (seeFigure6)

- Temporary Graduate visa (subclass 485)(Post-Study Work Stream) visas (seeFigure8)

- Skilled–RecognisedGraduatevisa(subclass476)(seeFigure8).Some commentators (eg. Sloan 2017) have stated or implied that internationalgraduates from Australian universities (ie. migrants with degrees but minimal workexperienceintheirrespectivefields)arebeinggrantedanincreasingproportionofthevisasavailableforthegeneralskilledmigrationprogram.Littlehardevidencehasbeenpresentedtosupportorrefutethiscontention,whichisnotsurprisingsincetheFederalGovernmentkeepsthe informationoutof thepublicdomain.Thepercentageofrecentgraduatesintheannualpermanentskilledmigrationschemeandthesubclass457visaschemeisunknown.Ithasbeenreported thatabouthalfofmigrantengineerswhoarepoints-testedcomefromoverseas(Birrelletal.2016).Thesepeopleareprimarilygrantedthesubclass189permanent residence visa for independent migrants (Figure 6 and Table 11 inSection10) and to a lesser extent the State and Territory-nominated subclass 190permanentresidencevisa(Figure7andTable11inSection10).Points-testingfavoursmigrantswhoarebetween25and39yearsofageandwhohavehadfive-to-tenyearsrelevantexperiencewithintheprevioustenyears(ProductivityCommission2016,Box13.1).


Engineers in this age bracketwho haveworked for eight-to-ten years are potentiallycompetitiveforseniorandleadengineerroles.Thosewhohave12-15yearsexperiencecanpotentially compete forprincipal engineer roles,dependingon thenatureof theirexperienceandthecompanyadvertisingthevacancy.Figure4Engineeringmigration–permanentandtemporary(actualnumbers,notindexed)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016Num

bero

fVisasGranted

toM

igrantEngineers

EngineeringMigra@on:PermanentResidence+457Visas

Somemigrantengineersreceiveanemployer-sponsoredtemporarysubclass457visatowork in Australia, then at a later date move onto a permanent residence visa whilemaintainingthesamejob.FromtheperspectiveofanAustralianengineertryingtore-entertheengineeringworkforce,thisisthesameasiftheengineeronthesubclass457visahadreturnedhomeandanothermigranthadcomeintothecountryonapermanentvisa.Consideringtheextentoftheoversupplyoftheengineeringlabourmarket(Section9.4),it isreasonabletoexpectthatamigrantengineeronasubclass457visashouldreturnhomeat theexpiryof thevisa, and that thevacated job– if still available– shouldbeadvertisedtotheAustralianengineeringlabourmarket(seeSection10.5).Basedonthisreasoning,whenamigrantengineertransitionsfromasubclass457visatoapermanentresidence visa, both occasions when a visa was granted should be included in theengineeringmigrationstatistics.ThisisthecaseinFigure4wheresubclass457visaandpermanentvisastatisticsarecombined.9.2 Flagged occupations and the Medium and Long-term Strategic Skills List (formerly the Skilled Occupation List) AsshowninTable1,in2012-13therewasnoshortageofengineersinallbutoneoftheengineeringoccupationsassessedbytheDoE,andbythefollowingfinancialyeartherewasnoshortageinanyofthem.


TheDepartmentofEducationandTraining(DE&T)reviewstheMediumandLong-termStrategicSkillsList(MLTSSL)eachyear.PriortoApril2017,thislistwasknownastheSkilledOccupationList(SOL).Ifanoccupationisonthelist,thenpotentialmigrantsinthatoccupationcanbeconsideredforapermanentresidenceSkilledIndependentvisa(subclass189),aswellasfortwotemporaryvisas(Figure6inSection10).TheSkilledIndependent visa (subclass 189) is currently the visa most commonly granted tomigrantengineers.IfanoccupationisnotontheMLTSSL,therecanbenoadmissionviathisroute.AftereachMLTSSLreview,someoccupationsareflaggedforremovalfromtheMLTSSLinthefuture.AccordingtoDE&T,

“Generally, occupations are flagged when there is emerging evidence ofexcesssupplyinthelabourmarket”(DE&T2016a).

Table 5 documents engineering Unit Groups and the years in which their respectiveoccupations were flagged for removal from the SOL by the DE&T and the previousFederal Government departmentswhich undertook this task, including theAustralianWorkforceProductivityAgency(AWPA).Table5EngineeringUnitGroupsflaggedontheSOLANZSCOCode

UnitGroup 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

2331 ChemicalandMaterialsEngineers(Note1)

✗ ✗ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

2332 CivilEngineeringProfessionals ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

2333 ElectricalEngineers ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗

2334 ElectronicsEngineers ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔


✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

2336 MiningEngineers ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✔ Note22339 OtherEngineering

Professionals ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

✔ =flagged ✗ =notflagged

Note1:Only‘233111Chemicalengineer’hasbeenflaggedforremovalNote2:‘2336MiningEngineers’wasremovedfromtheSOLfor2016-17SourcesforTable5:(EMSA2013)for2011-12and2012-13;(Iscah2013)for2013-14;(NoBorders2014)for2014-15;DE&T2015aandIscah2015for2015-16;andDE&T2016bfor2016-17.It is noteworthy in Table 5 that the single occupation covered by ‘2333 ElectricalEngineers’hasneverbeenflaggedforremovalfromtheSOL,eventhoughvacanciesforthisoccupation(ie.‘233311Electricalengineer’)haveremainedatlowlevelssinceearlyin 2013 and immigration has remained high (Appendix 4). As per Table 1, thisoccupationwasassessedbytheDoEashavingnoshortagefrom2012-13onwards.


Similarly,UnitGroup‘2336MiningEngineers’wasnotflaggedforremovalfromtheSOLuntil2015-16,whereas itcanbeseenfromTable1thatoneofthetwooccupations inthisUnitGroup,thatis ‘233611Miningengineer(ex.Petroleum)’,wasdeemedtohaveno shortage from 2013-14 onwards. This Unit Group had suffered a huge drop invacanciesbymid-2013,anddemandhasdeterioratedfurthersincethen(Appendix7).Discrepancies suchas these canbeexplainedat least inpartby theway inwhich therespective federal departments do their assessments. The DoE, whose assessmentsappear in Table 1, does its evaluation in-house, utilising information from its annualSurvey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences (DoE 2013, 2016d). TheDE&T on theotherhand,likeitspredecessordepartments,seekssubmissionsfromstakeholders:

“Tohelpinformitslabourmarketanalysis,theDepartmentisseekingexpertadviceandevidenceonthesuitabilityofoccupationsforinclusionontheSOL.Relevantstakeholders,includingrepresentativesofindustry,employee,tradeandprofessionalorganisationsarewelcometomakeasubmission…”(DE&T2016a).

The submission process presents an opportunity for lobby groups to influence theoutcome of the MLTSSL review. Lobby groups include the powerful ‘assessingauthorities’ (DE&T2016c)thatevaluatetheprofessionalqualificationsandexperienceofmigrants fora fee,andmakesubstantialsumsofmoneyfromthisactivityandfromanysubsequentannualmembershipfeespaidbynewmigrants.Once the DE&T has completed its annual review of the MLTSSL, it makes arecommendationabout theoccupations tobe includedon theMLTSSL to theMinisterforImmigrationandBorderProtection.TheMinisterdecideswhatthefinalcontentsoftheMLTSSLwillbe.9.3 Migration and vacancy index trends TakingintoaccounttheassessmentsoftheDoE(Table1),theDE&T(Table5),andthecommentaryaboutdiscrepancies, it isreasonabletotaketheyear2012-13asthefirstpointatwhichtherewasnoshortageofengineersintheprofessionasawhole.InFigure5, theengineeringmigrationdatashowninFigure4areplottedasan index,withtheyear2012-13beinggiventhevalueof100.Thisisachievedbydividingthedataforeachyear inFigure4bythevaluefor2012-13,thenmultiplyingby100.Onlydatafrom2011-12onwardsareshown.Also shown in Figure 5 are the engineering vacancies, as per Figure 1, but this timeplottedasanindexusingannualdataratherthanmonthlydata(toenablecomparisonwithmigrationdatawhichareonlyavailableonanannualisedbasis).Thevacancyindexhasalsobeencalculatedsothatithasavalueof100intheyear2012-13.Thisenablesthe trend in engineeringmigration to be easily comparedwith the trend in vacanciesafter2012-13.Given that unemployment, underemployment and displacement from the engineeringprofession have collectively increased since 2012-13, the divergence of themigration


andvacancyindexcurves(Figure5)indicatesthattheprofessionhasbeenoversuppliedwithmigrantssincethen.Innumericalterms,theratioofthemigrationindextothevacancyindexin2012-13was1(ie.100/100).In2015-16,theratiowas2.26(93.0/41.1).Thismeansthatin2015-16,thecountryadmitted126%moremigrantengineersperengineeringvacancythanitdidin2012-13when,onbalance,therewasnoshortageofengineersinthecountry.Notethatthesameratioisarrivedatwhentherawdata(ie.non-indexeddata)areused.Thenumberofengineeringmigrantsadmitted in2012-13was8559. Inthesameyearthenumberofengineeringvacancieswas71623,yieldingamigrant-to-vacancyratioof0.1195.In2015-16,thenumberofengineeringmigrantswas7962,andthenumberofengineering vacancies was 29431, yielding a migrant-to-vacancy ratio of 0.2705. Theratioofthesetworatiosis2.26(0.2705/0.1195).Figure5Totalengineeringmigrationandvacancies,indexed(2012-13=100)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a;DoE2017a)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

Inde

x

EngineeringMigra7onandVacanciesTotalSkilledMigra7onIndex VacancyIndex

Table6adocumentsthechangeintheratioofthemigrantindextothevacancyindexforeachengineeringUnitGroupbetween2012-13and2015-16.Onthismeasure,‘2331ChemicalandMaterialsEngineers’,‘2334ElectronicsEngineers’and‘2336MiningEngineers’arethemostoversuppliedUnitGroups.Asofmid-2016,theratio for ‘2332 Civil Engineering Professionals’wasmoving closer towhere itwas in2012-13afteraperiodofdivergence(Appendix3).


Table6aRatioofengineeringmigrationindextovacancyindexforengineeringUnitGroupsin2012-13and2015-16ANZSCOCode

UnitGroup Ratioin2012-13

Ratioin2015-16


1.00 3.23

2332 CivilEngineeringProfessionals 1.00 1.35

2333 ElectricalEngineers 1.00 3.14

2334 ElectronicsEngineers 1.00 3.26


1.00 2.40

2336 MiningEngineers 1.00 4.282339 OtherEngineering

Professionals 1.00 1.65

Forcompleteness,Table6bdocuments thechange in theratioof themigrant indextothevacancyindexfromthetimeeachUnitGroupwasfirstflaggedforremovalfromtheSOLuntil2015-16.

Table6bRatioofengineeringmigrationindextovacancyindexforengineeringUnitGroupsfromthetimetheywereflaggedontheSOLuntil2015-16ANZSCOCode

UnitGroup YearfirstflaggedontheSOL

RatiowhenfirstflaggedontheSOL

Ratioin2015-16

2331 ChemicalandMaterialsEngineers(Note1)

2013-14 1.00 1.59

2332 CivilEngineeringProfessionals 2011-12 1.00 1.43

2334 ElectronicsEngineers 2011-12 1.00 3.00


2011-12 1.00 3.29

2339 OtherEngineeringProfessionals 2011-12 1.00 2.07

Note1:Only‘233111Chemicalengineer’hasbeenflaggedforremovalfromtheSOLIt is astonishing that the ratios for ‘2334 Electronics Engineers’ and ‘2335 Industrial,MechanicalandProductionEngineers’haveincreasedsomuchsincetheseUnitGroupswerefirstflaggedontheSOL,ie.whentherewasthefirstemergingevidenceofexcesssupplyintheseUnitGroups;yettheystillremainontheMLTSSLtoday.


Table7showstheactualnumbersofmigrantsandvacancies in2012-13and2015-16foreachUnitGroup.Table7NumberofengineeringmigrantsandvacanciesinengineeringUnitGroupsin2012-13and2015-16

2012-13 2015-16 ANZSCOCode

UnitGroup No.ofmigrants

No.ofvacancies

Ratioofmigrantstovacancies

No.ofmigrants

No.ofvacancies

Ratioofmigrantstovacancies


396 493 0.80 490 189 2.59

2332 CivilEngineeringProfessionals 2443 28284 0.09 1934 16605 0.12

2333 ElectricalEngineers 759 6197 0.12 791 2058 0.38

2334 ElectronicsEngineers 706 1083 0.65 837 394 2.12


2150 12110 0.18 2092 4900 0.43

2336 MiningEngineers 583 19296 0.03 375 2901 0.132339 Other

EngineeringProfessionals

1522 4160 0.37 1443 2384 0.61

For the year 2012-13, at which time there was no shortage of engineers in mostengineering Unit Groups, the numbers in Table 7 are consistent with the discussionabout internetvacancies inSection3:mostvacanciesarecreatedbypeoplewhohavemovedfromaonejobtoanother,andarethereforemostlyfilledbypeoplewhoalreadyhaveajob.Asaresult,inmostinstancesthenumberofvacanciesforaUnitGroupisfargreaterthanthenumberofmigrantengineers(Table7)orthenumberofunemployedengineers.In2012-13,thedifferencebetweenthenumberofmigrantengineersandvacanciesfor‘2331ChemicalandMaterialsEngineers’and‘2334ElectronicsEngineers’wasrelativelysmall.By2015-16,thenumberofmigrantengineersinUnitGroup2331waslargerthanthenumberofvacanciesbyafactorofnearly2.6.ForUnitGroup2334,thenumberofmigrant engineerswas larger than thenumber of vacancies by a factor of 2.1. This isevidenceofmassiveoversupplyinthesetwoUnitGroups.9.4 Estimating the extent of the oversupply of engineers MigrantEngineersUsing the ratio ofmigrant engineers to vacancies for each engineering Unit Group in2012-13when therewas, for the first time since the GFC, no general shortage in theengineering labourmarket, it is possible to estimate the theoretical intake ofmigrantengineers in subsequent years that would not oversupply the labour market. This isdonebymultiplyingthe2012-13ratioforeachUnitGroupbythenumberofvacanciesineachsubsequentyear.Thenumberofmigrantengineerscalculatedinthisfashionfor


each subsequent year can then be subtracted from the actual number of number ofmigrant engineers in that year to provide an estimate of the number of migrantengineers inexcessof labourmarket requirements.Thisapproachassumes thatotherfactors – such as the extent of unemployment and the displacement of engineers –remainastheywerein2012-13,whereasinfacttheyhaveincreased.Table8documentstheresults.Table8NumberofmigrantengineersinexcessoflabourmarketrequirementsforeachengineeringUnitGroupANZSCOCode

UnitGroup Excessin2013-14

Excessin2014-15

Excessin2015-16

Total PercentofWorkforce(Note1)


206 244 338 788 10.9

2332 CivilEngineeringProfessionals 786 804 500 2090 4.9

2333 ElectricalEngineers 350 479 539 1368 6.6

2334 ElectronicsEngineers 176 408 580 1164 30.6


831 1114 1222 3166 10.1

2336 MiningEngineers 255 318 287 860 7.42339 OtherEngineering

Professionals 230 549 571 1350 5.8

Total 2834 3916 4037 10787

Note1:WorkforceemploymentdatafromTable4forNovember2015.AustralianGraduateEngineersThenumberofdomestic(ie.Australiancitizenandpermanentresident)bachelordegreegraduate engineers surplus to full-time engineering labourmarket requirements after2012-13canbeestimatedbyutilisingdatafromseveralsources.For the years 2014 and 2015, the number of engineering bachelor degree graduates(ACED2015,2017)canbemultipliedbythepercentageofengineeringbachelordegreegraduateswhoareavailableforfull-timework(GCA2015,2016),toyieldthenumberofengineeringbachelorgraduateswhoareavailableforfull-timework.Usingaweightedaverage percentage of those available for full-time work who are working in a jobbroadlyrelatedtotheirfieldofstudy,allowsthenumberofbachelorgraduatesworkingin a broadly related job to be calculated. From this, the number of bachelor degreegraduateengineerswhoareavailableforfull-timeworkbutwhocannotfindabroadlyrelatedjobcanbeestimated(seeTable9).ItisclearthatanyinternationalstudentwhograduatesinAustralia(oroverseas)andisgrantedaccesstotheengineeringlabourmarketissurplustorequirements.ThenumberofinternationalengineeringgraduateswhoaregrantedworkvisasisnotmadepubliclyavailablebyDIBP.


Table9Estimateofthenumberofdomesticbachelordegreegraduateengineersinexcessoffull-timeengineeringlabourmarketrequirements 2014 2015 2016

(Note1)Total

Numberofengineeringbachelorgraduatesavailableforfull-timework

5720 5756 5756

Weightedpercentageofthoseinbroadlyrelatedfull-timework

61.5 61.7 61.7

Numberinbroadlyrelatedfull-timework 3519 3550 3550

Numbernotinbroadlyrelatedfull-timework 2201 2206 2206 6613

Note1:Numbersarenotavailablefor2016,sothepreviousyear’snumbershavebeenused

Unemployed,UnderemployedandDisplacedEngineersAs discussed in Section 5, the number of unemployed, underemployed and displacedengineersisunknown.Theevidenceisthatthecollectivesizeofthiscohortofengineershascontinuedtogrowsince2011-12.Table10summarisestheestimates.

Table10SummaryofestimatesCategory NumberMigrantengineersinexcessoflabourmarketrequirementsafter2012-13 10800

Domesticgraduateengineersinexcessofrequirementsafter2013 6600

Internationalgraduateengineersgrantedworkingvisasafter2013 Unknown

Unemployed,underemployedanddisplacedengineers Unknown

10. Understanding Skilled Migration To understand the mechanisms used by the Federal Government to create theoversupplyofengineers,itisnecessarytounderstandhowAustralia’sskilledmigrationprogramoperates.Skilledmigrationconsistsofpermanentandtemporarycomponents.Through a number of pathways, migrant engineers can be granted permanent ortemporaryresidencevisasallowingthemtoworkinAustralia.Manyofthevisasrequirethemigrant’sparticularengineeringdiscipline(asdenotedbyanANZSCOoccupation)tobecontainedononeoftwolists.ThefirstistheMediumandLong-termStrategicSkillsList(MLTSSL)alreadymentionedinSection9.2above;andthesecondistheShort-termSkilled Occupation List (STSOL). Prior to April 2017, the MLTSSL was known as the


SkilledOccupationList(SOL)andtheSTSOLwasknownastheConsolidatedSponsoredOccupationList(CSOL). 10.1 Medium and Long-term Strategic Skills List Introduced in 2010 as the SOL (Azarias et al. 2014), the MLTSSL currently listsapproximately 180 occupations, including all engineering occupations in the ANZSCOMinorGroup233EngineeringProfessionals,withtheexceptionofthetwooccupationsinUnitGroup‘2336MiningEngineers’whichwereremovedfromthelistforthe2016-17year(CommonwealthofAustralia2016a),aswellas‘233999Engineeringprofessionals(notelsewhere classified)’whichwasnot listedafterApril2017.TheMLTSSL itself ismaintained and updated by the DE&T, but its final composition for each year isdetermined by the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP).Applications forvisasareassessedandgrantedbytheDIBP.Thevisas thatrequireanoccupationtobelistedontheMLTSSLareshowninFigure6.FortheSkilledIndependentvisa(subclass189),DIBPimposesanannualoccupationalceiling, which limits the number of visas in this subclass that can be issued for eachoccupation.Theceilingforeachoccupationisdeterminedasapercentageofthenumberofpeopleemployed in theoccupation inAustralia,but it isnever less than1000visas(DIBP2017e).Noaccountistakenofthelevelofunemploymentornumberofavailablevacanciesforanoccupation.

Figure6Visaswhichrequireaskilledmigrant’soccupationtobelistedontheMLTSSL

MediumandLong-termStrategicSkillsList(formerlySkilledOccupationList)

SkilledIndependentvisa(subclass189)Thisisapermanentresidencevisaavailableforpoints-testedskilledworkerswhoarenotsponsoredbyanemployerorfamilymember,andwhoarenotnominatedbyaStateorTerritoryGovernment.Applicantsmustbeunder50yearsofage,haveatleastcompetentEnglish,andmusthaveobtainedasuitableskillsassessmentfortheiroccupation.(DIBP2017b)

SkilledRegional(Provisional)visa(subclass489)Thistemporaryresidencevisaallowsskilledworkerstoliveandworkinspecifiedregionalareasforuptofouryears.Thevisaapplicantmustsponsoredbyaneligiblerelativelivinginadesignatedarea,ormustbeseekingtorenewanexistingvisa.(DIBP2017d)

TemporaryGraduatevisa(subclass485)GraduateWorkStreamThisisatemporaryresidencevisaforinternationalstudentswhohavegraduatedfromanAustralianinstitution,allowingthemtoworkinAustraliafor18months.ApplicantsmustbeinAustralia,beunder50yearsofage,andmeettheEnglishlanguagerequirement.(DIBP2017c)


HowtheCompositionoftheMLTSSLisDeterminedEachyeartheDE&Tusesa two-stageprocesstodetermine ifanoccupationshouldbelistedontheMLTSSL.Thefirststageinvolves identifyingoccupationstobeshortlistedforfurtherconsiderationinthesecondstage.Fourcriteriaareused,withtheaimbeingto identifyoccupationswhicharesusceptible tosupplyconstraintsand/orwhichmayneedgovernment intervention to address supply constraints.Occupationswhichhavemulti-year training requirements and/or for which a labour shortage will have asignificant impact on the economy or the community are typically shortlisted at thisstage(DE&T2016d).Fortheshortlistedoccupations,thesecondstage

“involvesassessingthemediumto longtermskillneedsoftheeconomyforeach occupation…to determine if it would benefit from skilled migration”(DE&T2016d).

The Department advises that an occupation would generally not be included on theMLTSSLifitwasdeterminedthatitislikelytobeinsurplusinthemediumtolongterm.Conversely,anoccupationgenerallywouldbeincludedontheMLTSSLifasurpluswasunlikelyinthemediumtolongterm(DE&T2016d;DE&T2016a).Itwasemphasisedby theDepartment in its2016onlineSOLreviewsubmission formthat:

“TheSOL is concernedwith ‘medium to long-term’ skillsneeds rather thanimmediate skills shortages” where “‘medium to long-term’ is defined as aperiodoffivetotenyears”(DE&T2016e).

TherearetwoprimaryproblemswithwaythecompositionoftheMLTSSLiscurrentlyestablished:

1. Intermsof identifyingwhichoccupationsshouldbeexcluded fromtheMLTSSL,there is significant practical difficulty in determining which individualoccupations are likely to be in surplus (or balance or shortage) in five-to-tenyears’time.Giventhedifficultiesinmakingpredictionsaboutthelabourmarketstatusofindividualoccupationssofarintothefuture,itmakesnosensetofocuson medium- to long-term requirements when the time frame for bringing inskilledmigrantsissomuchshorter.Theprocessingtimeformostvisasforskilledmigrants is between three and 12 months (DIBP 2017k), and the majority ofthese are finalisedwithin sixmonths (Productivity Commission 2016). A focusfortheMLTSSLofone-to-twoyearsintothefuturewouldallowmuchimprovedlabour market predictions, and skilled migration flows could then be bettermatchedtoareasofneed.

2. ThemajorflawinthelogicofdeterminingthecompositionoftheMLTSSListhe

assumption thatbringing in skilledworkers in thenext12monthswillhelp toalleviatepotential skilled labourshortages five-to-tenyears in the future.Forasituationwhere an occupation is currently in substantial oversupply (as is thecase with all engineering occupations), bringing in more skilled migrants to


competeforalimitednumberofvacanciesresultsinadditionalunemploymentordisplacement,forbothmigrantsandAustralians.Onceanindividualhasnotbeenable to secure a position in their occupation for a couple of years or more, itbecomes increasingly difficult for that individual to compete for job vacancieswith people who are employed or who have more recent relevant experience(AustralianHumanrightsCommission2016;ProductivityCommission2016;ABS2016d).Forengineers,thisprocesshasbeenongoingsince2012-13.Manythousandsofengineers remain unemployed or displaced from the profession. If there is asignificantincreaseindemandforengineersin,say,sevenyears’time,employerswill not look to employ those who have not practiced as engineers for theprevious seven years. Rather, they will employ engineers whose experience ismorecurrent,orseektobringinmigrantengineersfromoverseas.TheDE&Tsubscribes towhat is labeledhere as the ‘StockpilingTheory’ of thelabourforce.Thatis,skilledworkerscanbeimportedinthenearterm,regardlessofwhetherornottheycansecureemploymentintheirareaofexpertise,soastoprovideskilledlabourfive-to-tenyearsinthefuturewhenthereisananticipatedupsurge in demand. Unfortunately, the labour market does not work in thisfashion,andpeoplewhohavenotbeenabletopractiseandcontinuedevelopingtheir area of expertise for a period of years are nearly always at an extremedisadvantagewhentryingtore-entertheiroccupation.Itonlymakesrationalsensetobringskilledmigrantsintothecountrywhenthelabourmarket for their occupation is in shortage or balance, and they have areasonable likelihood of securing employment in their area of expertise soonaftertheyarrive.Initsdiscussionofpoints-basedskilledmigration,DIBPstatesthat:“Independentmigrants are selected on the basis of their skills, attributesand suitability for employment so they are in a position to contributequicklytotheAustralianeconomy”(DIBP2017l).Chief among independent, points-based skilled migrants are those who aregrantedthesubclass189SkilledIndependentvisa,thepermanentresidencevisathat requires the applicant’s occupation to be listed on the MLTSSL (seeFigure6).ClearlyDIBPviewstheMLTSSLasameansofidentifyingmigrantswhocanassistwiththeimmediateneedsoftheeconomy,ratherthanwithpotentialneedswhichmayariseinfiveormoreyears’time.

TheirrationalfocusoftheMLTSSLonpotentialmedium-to-longtermskillneedsgivescredencetotheviewsofsomeimmigrationresearchersthattheMLTSSLhaslittletodowith future skills shortages. Rather it is contended that its dual purposes are to helpmeet Australia’s massive population growth targets, and to provide support to thelucrative overseas student industry by facilitating post-studywork for these studentsthrough the subclass 485 visa. This then subsequently opens to the students thepossibility of obtaining a much sought-after permanent residency visa (Birrell et al.2016).


10.2 Short-term Skilled Occupation List TheSTSOLcameintoeffectinJuly2012(Azariasetal.2014)astheCSOL.ItisusedforvisasapplicabletomigrantswhoaresponsoredbyaStateorTerritoryGovernment,orbyanemployer.Prior toApril2017, therewere ineffect twoCSOLs.Eachyear, as anamendment to theMigrationRegulations1994,DIBPpublishedaSOLandaCSOL.Thelatter was the legislated CSOL (Commonwealth of Australia 2016a). However, whenappliedinpractice,DIBP’sCSOLconsistedofalltheoccupationslistedonthelegislatedSOL,plusthoseonthelegislatedCSOL,givingatotalofabout680occupationsin2016.Thepracticewasrevealedbyaquestiononnotice toDIBP fromtheSenateEducationand Employment References Committee (The Senate Education and EmploymentReferencesCommittee2016,p.65).ThisapproachwasformalisedinApril2017withtheadventoftheMLTSSLandSTSOL.Employer and State and Territory Government nominations are now available to anyoccupation that is on the combined MLTSSL and STSOL. Some occupations arespecificallyexcludedfromthecombinedlist.Theseinclude:233111 Chemicalengineer233112 Materialsengineer233411 Electronicsengineer233511 Industrialengineer233513 Productionorplantengineer233612 PetroleumengineerThefirstfiveofthesenonethelessremainonthestandaloneMLTSSL.In general, employers and governments can recruit skilled migrants via the visasassociatedwiththecombinedlist(seeFigure7)withoutany‘markettesting’,ie.withoutever advertising the jobs in Australia, if they so choose. This means that Australiancitizens and existing permanent residents can be denied the opportunity to apply forthesejobs.Thereiscurrentlysomemarkettestingrequiredforsubclass457visas,butthisislimited(seeSection10.5below).TheSTSOLismaintainedandupdatedbyDIBPtakingintoaccountadvicefromtheDoEand,unliketheMLTSSL,itscompositionisdeterminedin-house(DIBP2017r).Overtheyears,thecompositionoftheCSOLhasdrawnconsiderablecriticism,nearlyallofitinrelationtothesubclass457visa.Forexample,theCSOLhasbeendescribedas

“an indiscriminate listingofavast rangeofskilledoccupationswhich takesnoaccountofthestateofthelabourmarket”(Birrell&Healy2012,p.12).

TheIndependentReviewintotheIntegrityoftheSubclass457Program(Azariasetal.2014)recommended thata tripartiteministerialadvisorycouncilbe formed toadvisetheFederalGovernmentonskilledmigrationingeneral,andonthesubclass457visainparticular,includingadviceonwhichoccupationsmaybeinoversupply.


Figure7Visaswhichrequireaskilledmigrant’soccupationtobelistedonthecombinedlist

CombinedList:MediumandLong-termStrategicSkillsList,plus

Short-termSkilledOccupationList

SkilledRegional(Provisional)visa(subclass489)Thistemporaryresidencevisaallowsskilledworkerstoliveandworkinspecifiedregionalareasforuptofouryears.Itisavailableforpoints-testedskilledworkerswhohavebeennominatedbyaStateorTerritoryGovernmentagency.ThisisknownastheInvitedPathway.FortheInvitedPathway,applicantsmustbeunder50yearsofage,haveatleastcompetentEnglish,andmusthaveobtainedasuitableskillsassessmentfortheiroccupation.(DIBP2017d)

SkilledNominatedvisa(subclass190)Thisisapermanentresidencevisaavailableforpoints-testedskilledworkerswhoarenominatedbyaStateorTerritoryGovernmentagency.Applicantsmustbeunder50yearsofage,haveatleastcompetentEnglish,andmusthaveobtainedasuitableskillsassessmentfortheiroccupation.(DIBP2017g)

EmployerNominationScheme(subclass186)Thisisapermanentresidencevisaavailableforskilledworkerswhohavebeennominatedbyanemployer.Itincludes457visaholderswhoaretransitioningtopermanentresidence.Applicantsmustbeunder50yearsofage,andmeetspecifiedskills,qualificationsandEnglishlanguagerequirements.(DIBP2017f)

TemporaryWork(Skilled)visa(subclass457)Thisisatemporaryresidencevisawhichallowsskilledworkerstoworkintheirnominatedoccupationforuptofouryears.Applicantsmustbesponsoredbyanapprovedbusinessandhavetherequiredskillsfortheposition.(DIBP2017h)


Inresponse,theFederalGovernmentsupportedtherecommendationandre-establishedthe Ministerial Advisory Council on Skilled Migration (MACSM) (Commonwealth ofAustralia 2017). The Council held its inaugural meeting in June 2015. The Council’stermsofreferenceincludeprovidingadvicetotheMinisterforImmigrationandBorderProtectionaboutthecompositionoftheCSOL

“with a view to increasing the productivity contribution of sponsoredmigration”(DepartmentofFinance2017).

What thismeans inpractice isunknown.Another task for theMACSM is to adviseonpolicies:

“to ensure that Australian workers are afforded priority in the labour market”(DepartmentofFinance2017).

Themajorityoftheseven-memberCouncil iscomprisedofrepresentativesof industryandemployergroups.Thereisonememberfromacompanywithafinancialinterestintheimmigrationindustry,andonememberfromtheAustralianCouncilofTradeUnions(ACTU)(CommonwealthofAustralia2017;Clancy2015).Thereisno-onerepresentingthe interests of largely non-unionised groups of professionals such as engineers, ICTprofessionals and accountants; and there is no-one representing the interests ofunemployedanddisplacedAustraliancitizensandpermanentresidentswhoaretryingtofindaplaceintheirprofessionwhenthejobmarketisinastateofoversupply.In December 2016, the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection asked theMACSMtoreviewtheexistingCSOL

“toensureitbetterreflectsgenuinelabourmarketneeds…TheCSOLreviewispartofasuiteofreformswhicharebeingprogressedbytheGovernmenttoensurethatAustralianworkershavepriority”(Dutton2016).

InApril2017theFederalGovernmentdetaileditsplanstoscrapthesubclass457visa,and at the same time removed a range of occupations from the new STSOL (the listwhichreplacedtheCSOL).However,theGovernmentdidnotconsulttheMACSMaboutthechanges,effectively rendering it irrelevant.TheACTUrepresentativesubsequentlyresignedfromthecommittee(Patty2017b).10.3 Visas not required to be on either list There are another four visas relevant tomigrant engineerswhich do not require theapplicant’s occupation to be listed on the MLTSSL or STSOL. These are shown inFigure8. The Skilled – Recognised Graduate visa (subclass 476) is unique amongAustralian visas in that it is focused on just one occupational grouping – graduateengineers. It was introduced in September 2007when skilled labour shortages werebeing experienced during the first phase of the resources boom (Commonwealth ofAustralia 2007); however, it still remains in place even when the labour market forengineering graduates is very unfavourable due to intense competition for asignificantlydiminishednumberofpositions.


Figure8Visaswhichdonotrequireaskilledmigrant’soccupationtobelistedontheMLTSSLortheSTSOL

Skilled–RecognisedGraduatevisa(subclass476)Thistemporaryresidencevisaallowsrecentengineeringgraduatesofrecognisedinstitutions(includingoverseasinstitutions)togainupto18monthsofskilledworkexperience.Applicantsmustbeyoungerthan31yearsofageandhavecompletedanengineeringdegreeatarecognisedinstitutioninthepasttwoyears.(DIBP2017i)

VisasIndependentoftheMLTSSLandSTSOL

RegionalSponsoredMigrationSchemevisa(subclass187)ThisisapermanentresidencevisaforskilledworkerswhowanttoworkinregionalAustralia.ApplicantsmustbenominatedbyanapprovedAustralianemployerforajobinregionalAustralia.Applicantsmustalsonormallybeunder50yearsofageandmeetskills,qualificationsandEnglishlanguagerequirements,althoughexemptionsexist.(DIBP2017m)

TemporaryGraduatevisa(subclass485)Post-StudyWorkStreamThisisatemporaryresidencevisaforinternationalstudentswhograduatewithahigherdegree.Thevisacanbegrantedforuptofouryears.UnliketheGraduateWorkStream,theapplicant’soccupationisnotrequiredtobelistedontheMLTSSL.(DIBP2017c)

SkilledRegionalvisa(subclass887)ThisisapermanentresidencevisaforpeoplewhohavelivedandworkedinspecifiedareasofregionalAustralia.ApplicantsmustbeinAustraliaandholdoneoffourspecifiedvisasorabridgingvisa.Minimumtimeperiodsforhavinglivedandworkedinthespecifiedregionalareasapply,alongwithhealthandcharacterrequirements.(DIBP2017n)


10.4 Summary of skilled migration visas Table11summarises thesuiteofskilledmigrationvisas thatareusedto facilitate themigrationofengineersthroughbothonshoreandoffshoreapplications.Table11SummaryofmajorskilledimmigrationvisasVisasubclass

Visatitle Occupationrequiredtobeonlist

Permanentortemporaryvisa

Points-testedvisa

189 SkilledIndependent MLTSSL Permanent Yes485 TemporaryGraduate

(GraduateWorkStream)MLTSSL Temporary No

489 SkilledRegional(Provisional)

MLTSSL Temporary No

186 EmployerNominationScheme

Combined Permanent No

190 SkilledNominated Combined Permanent Yes457 TemporaryWork

(Skilled)Combined Temporary No

489 SkilledRegional(Provisional)(InvitedPathway)

Combined Temporary Yes

187 RegionalSponsoredMigrationScheme

Nolist Permanent No

476 Skilled–RecognisedGraduate

Nolist Temporary No

485 TemporaryGraduate(Post-StudyWorkStream)

Nolist Temporary No

887 SkilledRegional Nolist Permanent NoThe term ‘regional’ means anywhere in Australia except Sydney, Newcastle, NSWCentralCoast,Wollongong,Melbourne,Brisbane,GoldCoast,Perthand theACT(DIBP2017o).10.5 Temporary skilled migration OfthesixtemporaryskilledmigrationvisasinTable11,three(subclasses476and485)are for recent university graduates. The number of these visas awarded each year toengineeringgraduatesisnotmadeavailablebyDIBP.Oftheremainingthreevisas,thesubclass457visa is by far themost significant, anddata for thenumberof 457visasissuedeachyearforindividualoccupationsarepubliclyavailable(DIBP2017a).The subclass 457 visa has probably been the most notorious visa in Australianimmigrationhistory.Sinceitsintroductionin1996,thisvisahasbeenthesubjectoftenreviews and inquiries, including the ‘Robust New Foundations’ report (Azarias et. al.2014) and the recent Senate review into the exploitation of temporary work visaholders (The Senate Education andEmploymentReferences Committee 2016). As theapplicationofthevisahasbroadenedovertimefromitsoriginalintent,controversyhasgrown about the role it plays in the displacement of Australian workers by foreignworkers,andintheexploitationofforeignworkerswhoareworkinginthecountrywiththisvisa.


ItcanbeseenfromFigure9thatthenumberofsubclass457visasissuedtoengineershasfalleneachyearsince2011-12.Figure10showsthatthedeclineintheissueof457visastracksthedeclineinengineeringvacanciesoverthattime.Figure9Newsubclass457visagrantsforengineers(actualdata,notindexed)(DIBP2017a)

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Thesubclass457visacanbeissuedforaperiodofuptofouryears.AttheendofJune2012therewere7303migrantengineersworkinginAustraliaon457visas.BytheendofJune2016,thenumberhadfallento2327(DIBP2017p).Superficiallyitcouldbeseenasappropriatethattheissueofnewsubclass457visastomigrantengineershasdeclinedinproportiontothedeclineinvacancies.Thiswouldbea plausible argument if there had also been a corresponding decline in the levels ofpermanentskilledmigration.However,permanentskilledmigrationhasincreasedandkepttotalengineeringmigrationathighlevels(Figure4);andthenumberofapplicantsperengineeringvacancyhascontinued toriseeachyear (Figure3)asunemployment,underemployment and displacement of engineers has increased. It is thereforereasonabletoquestionwhythereisarequirementforanyengineerstobebroughtintothecountryusingthistemporaryvisa.Engineeringandnursingaretheonlytwoprofessions(asopposedtotrades)forwhichmarkettestingisrequiredbeforea457visacanbeissued(CommonwealthofAustralia2016b;Azariasetal.2014).ThemarkettestingrequirementcanbebypassedifthereisanyconflictwithAustralia’sinternationaltradeobligations.Thus,ifthevisaapplicantisa citizen of China, Japan, Thailand, Chile, Korea orNew Zealand, nomarket testing isrequired.Iftheapplicantisacurrentemployeeofabusinessthatisanassociatedentityof the sponsoring business in Australia, then no market testing is required if theassociatedbusinessislocatedinanyofthetenASEANcountriesorChile,China,Japan,Korea or New Zealand (DIBP 2016). With these rules, there is ample scope foremployerstobringinmigrantengineerson457visaswithnomarkettesting,regardlessofthestateoftheengineeringemploymentmarket.For professional occupations, the subclass 457 visa is granted with no independentexaminationofthequalificationsorexperienceofapplicants.AlongstandingconcernofEngineers Australia is that migrants on this visa can work as engineers in Australiabasedontheapprovaloftheirsponsoringemployeralone(EngineersAustralia2015d,2016b).Incontrast,30tradeoccupationsaresubjecttoindependentskillsassessmentifthe applicant comes from any of ten particular countries (Azarias et al. 2014). In theviewoftheauthor,consideringthesafetyandqualityissuesatstake,migrantswhowishtoentertheAustralianengineeringworkforceon457visasshouldundergoformalskillsassessmentbytheassessingauthority,ie.EngineersAustralia.Despite the purpose of the ‘Temporary Work’ subclass 457 visa scheme being toalleviate temporary skill shortages in the Australian labour market (The SenateEducation and Employment References Committee 2016), this objective has beendistorted,allowingittobecomeatransitionvisaformanymigrantsseekingpermanentresidenceinthecountry(Azariasetal.2014).Forexample,migrantscantransferfromasubclass457visatoapermanentresidencesubclass186visawhentheyhaveworkedfor a sponsoring employer for at least two years in the same occupation, and theemployerwantstoofferthemapermanentpositioninthatsameoccupation.Nomarkettestingisrequired(DIBP2017f;ProductivityCommission2016).This arrangement is satisfactorywhen a labour shortage exists in an occupation. Butwhenanoccupationorgroupofoccupationsisinachronicstateofmajoroversupply(asis the case with engineering occupations), this form of transition to a permanent


residencevisadeniesunemployed,underemployedanddisplacedcitizensandexistingpermanentresidentsinthesameoccupationtheopportunityofapplyingforthejob.Inthese circumstances, thevisa regulationsprivilegea foreignnational inAustraliaonatemporaryworksubclass457visa,overandaboveAustraliancitizensandpermanentresidents.ForAustraliancitizenswhoaretryingtofindworkintheiroccupation,thisisaformofdispossession.Theabilityofmigrantsinengineeringoccupationstotransitionfromsubclass457visastopermanentresidencevisasmustend.Oncethe457visatermhasexpired,themigrantengineermustleavethecountryandthejobbemadeavailabletocitizensandexistingpermanentresidents.RemovalofengineeringoccupationsfromtheSTSOLwillfacilitatethis,andwillalsopreventnew457visasbeinggrantedtoengineers.InApril2017,theFederalgovernmentannouncedthatthesubclass457visawouldbescrappedinMarch2018,tobereplacedwiththeTemporarySkillsShortage(TSS)visa.Labourmarket testingwill bemandatory for theTSS, exceptwhere there is a conflictwithAustralia’sinternationaltradeobligations(DIBP2017s).TherewillbetwostreamsassociatedwiththeTSS.TheShort-termstreamwillbeavisaofuptotwoyears’duration.Toaccessthisvisa,anapplicantwillberequiredtohaveanoccupation listed on the STSOL. With this stream, there will be no pathway topermanent residency. The Medium-term stream will be a visa of up to four years’duration.Toaccessthisvisa,anapplicantwillberequiredtohaveanoccupationlistedon the MLTSSL. There is a pathway to permanent residency with this stream (DIBP2017r).10.6 Permanent skilled migration The permanent skilled migration data for engineers used in this report have beenobtainedfromdatasuppliedtoEngineersAustraliabyDIBP(EngineersAustralia2017).Thedatacoverallpermanentvisaclassesforbothindependentandsponsoredmigrantengineers(EngineersAustralia2012).Migrant engineers can obtain permanent residency through any of five major visapathways,asdocumentedinTable11.Between2001and2011,theskilledindependentvisawas themostcommonlygrantedpermanentresidencevisa formigrantengineers(Engineers Australia 2012). This is the Skilled Independent subclass 189 visa inTable11. The next most commonly granted permanent residence visas for engineerswereemployer-sponsored(subclasses186and187inTable11),followedbyStateandTerritory sponsoredvisas (subclass190 inTable11) and thenother visas (EngineersAustralia2012).Permanent residence visas can be granted to both offshore and onshore applicants.OffshoreapplicantsarelivingoutsideAustraliaatthetimeoftheirapplication,whereasonshore applicants apply when they are already in the country. Offshore applicantslargely utilise the subclass 189 (Skilled Independent) visa, available for skilledindependentworkers.Onshoreapplicants,suchas those transitioning fromtemporaryvisas or student visas, can potentially access the subclass 189 (Skilled Independent)and/orthesubclass186(EmployerNomination)visa,amongothers.


Permanentengineeringmigrationroseby36%between2012-13and2015-16(Figure11) and permanent visa applicants dominate the annual migrant engineering intakebasedontheavailabledata(Figure12)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a).Figure11Newpermanentresidencevisagrantsforengineers(actualdata,notindexed)(EngineersAustralia2017)

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The preponderance of migrant engineers granted permanent residence makes theengineering employmentmarket evenmoredifficult. Thesemigrantsdonot return totheir countries of originwhen their visas expire, in contrast to someof those on 457visas. Instead, they are able to remain in Australia and compete for engineering jobsindefinitely,shouldtheysochoose.11. Recent Domestic University Graduates Figure 13 shows the number of award completions in the Australian StandardClassification of Education (ASCED)(ABS 2001) category ‘03 Engineering and RelatedTechnologies’ inAustralia since2001. ‘Awards’ cover degrees, diplomas and graduatecertificates. There are two curves in Figure 13: one for domestic graduates (ie.Australiancitizensandpermanentresidents);and theother for internationalstudentswho have graduated from an Australian institution. Both curves indicate an ongoingincreaseingraduatenumbers.Figure13NewgraduatesinEngineering&RelatedTechnologies(actualdata,notindexed)(DE&T2016f;ACED2017)

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Theemploymentoutcomesforrecentdomesticbachelordegreeengineeringgraduatesare surveyedbyGraduate CareersAustralia (GCA). For graduateswho complete theirdegreestudiesattheendofayear,theGCAsurveyisforwardedtothemattheendofAprilinthefollowingyear(GCA2011).Thisisfive-to-sixmonthsafterthecompletionofthegraduates’finalexams.Across engineering disciplines, since 2012 there has been a significant decline in thepercentage of recent domestic graduates in full-time employment, according to GCAdata.Theexception isElectronic/ComputerEngineering,whichhasexperienced justasmall decline (GCA 2016. See Table 5 in GCA’s ‘Supplementary Tables & Figures’).Figure14 illustrates the decline in full-time employment for three engineeringdisciplines.TheX-axisofFigure14referstotheyearinwhichtheGCAsurveywasdone.The shape of the curves for the three engineering disciplines roughly corresponds tothat for engineering vacancies shown in Figure 1; that is, it is likely that domestic


graduateengineerfull-timeemploymentoutcomestoanextentreflectthegeneralstateoftheengineeringemploymentmarket.Not all of thesedomestic engineering graduates are employed in jobs related to theirfieldof study.Dependingon thediscipline,between70%and90%of recentgraduateengineers who are employed full-time are working in a job broadly related to theirtraining(GCA2016.SeeTable23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’).Figure14Bachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment,forselectedengineeringdisciplines(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTable5inGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’)

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Table12showsthenumberofrecentdomesticengineeringbachelorgraduateswhoareworking full-time ina jobbroadlyrelated to their fieldofstudy,asapercentageofallrecent domestic engineering bachelor graduateswho are available for full-timework,using 2015 data. It documents a dismal outcome for domestic engineering bachelorgraduates. Note that ‘broadly related’ means engineering, scientific, technical andmanagerialroles(GCA2016.SeeTable23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’).Engineeringdegreesareamongthemostdifficultuniversitydegreesinbothcomplexityandworkload, and theyusually take at least four years to finish. Students completingengineering bachelor degrees incur costs of the order of $36,000 if they take out aHECS-HELPloan,basedon2016rates(Norton2016).Itisirrationaltobelievethatanybut a small percentage of students embarking on engineering degrees do sowith theintentionthattheywillnotworkinanengineering-relatedfield.Thedeterioration in jobprospects fordomestic graduateengineershasbeenpartiallyreflected in a 10% decline in acceptances in engineering courses through Tertiary


Admission Centres (TACs) between 2013 and 2015. However, direct admissions toengineeringcoursesincreasedbynearly33%duringthattime,leavingtheoveralllevelofacceptancesvirtuallyunchanged(EngineersAustralia2016c).

Table12Numberofrecentdomesticengineeringbachelorgraduatesworkingfull-timeinajobbroadlyrelatedtotheirfieldofstudy,asapercentageofallrecentdomesticengineeringbachelorgraduatesavailableforfull-timeemployment(actual2015data,notindexed)(GCA2016.CalculatedfromdatainTables5and23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’)Engineeringdiscipline %Workinginrelevantjob

Aeronautical 42.0Chemical 50.8Civil 68.0Electrical 70.2Electronic/computer 71.0Mechanical 59.9Mining 63.9Otherengineering 57.4

It is very likely that the domestic ‘market’ for university engineering courses –consistingofhighschool students, theirparentsandcareersadvisers,andmatureagestudents – is not well informed about the true state of the Australian employmentmarketforgraduateengineersinparticular,andengineersingeneral.Coupledwiththis,theyareunlikelytobeawareoftheoutlookfortheengineeringprofessionpreparedbytheDoE(Table4).Part of this lack of understandingmay be due to the spruiking ofmisinformation byuniversities. In 2015, the author received a survey from university engineeringacademicswhoweregenuinelyof thebelief thatAustraliawas in thegripof a severeshortageofengineers.Whileuniversitiesmaydisseminatemisinformationingoodfaith,thereislittleexcuseforthemdoingso.Inconjunctionwith this, theFederalGovernmentandprivateorganisationshavebeenarticulating a view that Australia needs more high school students to study Science,Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects. It is hoped that this willincrease thenumberofAustraliansenrolling in thesecoursesat the tertiary levelandultimately entering theworkforce, for the benefit of the economy (Norton2016; PwC2016). This advocacy will help to encourage students to enroll in STEM courses,includingengineering.Domestic engineering degree enrollments and graduations have risen continuouslysincethebeginningoftheresourcesboom(Figure13),andhavecontinuedtoincreaselongaftertheresourcesboomdrewtoaclose.Theboomwasaonce-in-200yearevent,and one that will not be repeated in the foreseeable future. The labour market for


engineering graduates is, and will probably continue to be, in a state of oversupplyunlessgraduatenumbersreduce.Thereisaperspectivepushedbyuniversitiesandsomeinthefederalbureaucracythatit doesn’tmatter if engineeringgraduatesdon’t findaplace in theprofession, as theywillbeabletofindaplaceinthegeneralskilledworkforce.Itistruethatitiseasierforgraduate engineers to move into new professional fields than it is for experiencedengineers;evenso,graduateengineershavetocompetewithothergraduateswhohaveundertaken courses of study more suited to alternative occupations. About 28% ofdomestic engineering bachelor graduates do a double degree (Engineers Australia2015c), and this assists these individuals to find placements outside the profession.However,manywillbe leftunable to findworkappropriate to theskill level towhichtheyhavebeen trained.Given thatengineeringstudentswill incursubstantial costs interms of time spent studying and debts accrued (or paid), seeking a career inengineeringwillforsomeeffectivelyturnouttobeasourceofself-harm.There is an ethical imperative for the Federal Government and universities to ensurepotentialengineeringstudentsarefully informedofthecurrentandanticipatedfuturestateoftheengineeringlabourmarket.Thiswillthenallowpotentialstudentsandthosewho advise them to decide if engineering is an appropriate career path, or whetheranotherprofessionwouldbemoresuitable.NearlyallAustralianuniversitiespublishandpromote their ‘values’whichgovern thebehaviour expected of staff, students and the institution itself. Google the phrase‘Australiauniversityvalues’forplentyofexamples.Wordssuchas‘honesty’,‘openness’and ‘integrity’ frequently appear in statements of values, and should guide universitybehaviortowardspotentialstudents.Unfortunately,universitieshaveamajorconflictofinterest in that they make more money when they enroll more students, a situationwhichhasexistedsince2012whentheFederalGovernmentmovedtoademand-drivenfunding system for universities, and removed caps on enrollments in mostCommonwealth-funded bachelor degrees (Norton 2016). Universities have a financialincentive toenrollasmanystudentsaspossible,and todo this theypromoteall theircoursestopotentialstudents.Overlaidontheoversupplyofdomesticengineeringgraduatesisthegrowingnumberofinternational students graduating with engineering qualifications from Australianinstitutions (Figure 13). These individuals – who are not Australian citizens orpermanent residents – can gain access to theAustralian employmentmarket throughthe subclass 476 and 485 temporary visas, and through permanent visas such as thesubclass189Skilled Independentvisa.The internationalgraduates thencompetewithdomestic engineering graduates for a limited number of entry-level places in theprofession.That this is allowed to continue is intolerable, considering the poor employmentoutcomes for domestic engineering graduates (Table 12). The Federal Government isallowing domestic engineering graduates to become collateral damage in its drive toattract ever more international students to study in Australia. The possibility ofpost-studyworkexperienceandpermanentresidenceinAustraliaisattractivetomanyinternationalstudents(BirrellandHealy2012;Birrelletal.2016).


Byplacingthe interestsof internationalgraduates,andthevested interestswhomakemoney out of them, ahead of the interests of Australian engineering graduates, theFederalGovernmentiscausingharmtoinnocentAustralianswhohaveinvestedmuchintheirengineeringeducation.Atthesametime,theGovernmentisdiminishingthevalueoftheircitizenshipbyallowingforeignnationalsontemporaryvisasequalaccesstothevery limitednumberofavailable jobs.This isprofoundlyunethical,andis inconsistentwithsounddemocraticgovernance.InordertoprotecttheinterestsofdomesticengineeringgraduatesandtheintegrityoftheAustralianengineeringlabourmarket,accessofinternationalengineeringgraduatesto temporary and permanent visas must cease. With these changes, internationalengineeringstudentswillstillcometostudyinAustralia;thecohortmaychange,butthenumberswillstillbethere.12. Migrant Engineers 12.1 Economic issues Although there are many reasons why people migrate to Australia, some of the keyreasons for professionals are to access the higher rates of pay and presumed jobopportunities inAustraliacomparedwiththose intheirhomecountries;andtoaccessopportunities to remain inAustraliaonapermanent residencevisaorultimatelyasacitizen.Mostmigrant engineers come fromdeveloping countries (EngineersAustralia2016a),so for these people the issue of pay differentials between Australia and their homecountriesisamaterialfactorinthedecisiontomigrate.Salariesbetweencountriescanbecomparedusingapurchasingpowerparity(PPP)dollar.APPPof1representsoneUSdollarspentintheUSA.ThesamebasketofgoodspurchasedintheUSAforoneUSdollarcanbeboughtindevelopingcountriesforsomefractionofthis.However,salariesindevelopingcountriesonaPPPbasisaregenerallylowerthanindevelopedcountriessuchasAustralia.Asanexample,basedon2012PPPdatatheaveragesalaryinAustraliahas3.35 times thepurchasingpower as the average salary inBrazil.Relative averagesalaries, calculated on a PPP basis, are available on the BBC website (BBC NewsMagazine2012).The substantially higher purchasing power of Australian salaries allows migrants tosend valuable remittances to families in their home countries. Savings accrued inAustralia have even greater value if themigrants return to their home countries andspendthemoneythere.ThedownsideformigrantsisthatiftheyremaininAustraliapermanently,thesavingstheyaccruedintheirhomecountriespriortoimmigrationhaveadiminishedpurchasingpowerifspent inAustralia.Thisfavoursyoungermigrantswhohaveaccumulatedlesswealthintheirhomecountriesthanolderworkers.ThedownsideforAustraliansinthesame occupations as the migrants is that the large increase in purchasing poweraffordedbyAustraliansalariescanencouragesomemigrantstoacceptoffersofworkatsalaryratesbelowmarketrates.Thishasbeenhighlightedinthemediaovertheyears


forunskilledandsemi-skilledworkers,wheremigrantshavebeenexploited.Therehasbeenlittleexposureabouttheextentofthisphenomenoninprofessionaloccupations.A recent study of migrant Information and Communication Technology (ICT)professionals in Australia shed some light on the matter (Birrell et al. 2016). It wasfound that 61% of experienced Indian ICT professionalsworking in Australia on 457visashadasalarywhichwasat least30%belowtheaveragesalaryforAustralianICTprofessionals. Incredibly, 28% of Indian ICT professionals had a salary below thestartingsalaryofAustralianICTgraduates,eventhoughonlyeightpercentoftheIndianswereundertheageof25(Birrelletal.2016).If this canhappen in ICT, it cancertainlyhappen in theengineeringprofessionwherecompetition for each job is at itsmost intenseever.DIBPmust release theequivalent457visasalarydataforengineeringoccupations.12.2 Luring migrant engineers from overseas MigrantengineerswhoareadmittedviaoffshoreapplicationsoftendonothaveagoodunderstandingofthecurrentstatusandoutlookoftheAustralianemploymentmarket.This can have a major negative impact if they are arriving on subclass 189 (SkilledIndependent)visas,andarethereforenotsponsoredbyanemployer.Some potential migrants form the impression that their skills will be in demand inAustraliabecausetheiroccupationappearsontheMLTSSL,whichtheycanviewonlinefrom their countries of origin (Dengate 2016a). In the case of engineers, this falseimpression is entirely the fault of the Federal Government in general, and DIBP inparticular(seeSection10.1above).Othershavebeendeceivedbymigrationagents,whohavebeenknowntolurepotentialmigrants to their services by intentionally or unintentionally providing them withoutdated and even false information about the current state of the Australianemploymentmarket.Thistypeofadvertisingispotentiallyaformofimmigrationfraud(DIBP2017q).Thereareserious financialandcareerconsequences formigrantengineerswhen theyarrive inAustralia and find that engineeringwork is difficult to obtain. The followingstatement fromaskilledmigrant (occupationunstated)also reflects theexperienceofsomemigrantengineers:

“Ingeneral,manyskilledmigrants that Ihavemet they feeldeceivedwhentheycomeheretofindajobintheirareaofexpertiseandareunabletoevengetaninterview.”(Gale2014,p.4).

Thevoicesofmigrantengineers, like thoseofdomesticgraduateengineers, are rarelyheard.TheviewsofsomemigrantengineerswhohaverecentlyarrivedinAustralia,andwhohavebecomedisillusionedbecause theyhavenotbeenable to findwork in theirprofession,arepresentedin‘TheHuffingtonPost’byDengate(2016a,2016b)andonthewebsiteofProfessionalsAustralia(2016a).


It is worth noting that the United Nations definition of human trafficking has threeconstituentelements:TheAct;TheMeans;andThePurpose(UnitedNationsOfficeonDrugs and Crime 2017). TheAct includes the act of recruitment (among others). TheMeans includes the use of deception (among others); and The Purpose includesexploitation. When the three elements are present, human trafficking may exist,dependingonthelegislationofthecountriesinwhichtheeventsoccurred.Atleasttwoofthethreeelementsarerepresentedwhenengineersarerecruitedfromoverseasusingfalse or misleading information about the Australian economy and job prospects forengineers.TheFederalGovernmentiscomplicitinthisunethicalprocessbycontinuingtomaintainallengineeringoccupations(exceptthoseintheANZSCOUnitGroup‘2336MiningEngineers’)ontheMLTSSLyearsaftertheoversupplyofthoseoccupationsfirstbecameevident.12.3 Migrant unemployment and assistance EngineersAustraliahasfrequentlynotedthattheunemploymentrateofoverseasbornengineers is higher than that for Australian born engineers. More recent arrivalsexperience higher rates of unemployment, and the longer migrant engineers are inAustralia,thelowertheirunemploymentratebecomes(EngineersAustralia2014a).Thenumbersmay be accurate, but this type of comparison between Australian born andoverseasbornengineerscanbemisleading,andcanleadtowrongconclusions.Fortheengineeringoccupationsconsideredinthisreport,thetotalworkforceisabout141,000 (Table 4), and a hypothetical unemployment rate of 5.0% for this groupcorrespondstojustover7,400unemployedpeople.Thetotalnumberofnewpermanentandtemporarymigrantengineersrecordedfor2015-16was7962.Iftheunemploymentrateamongthesenewmigrantsis20%(18%wasthehighestratequotedbyEngineersAustralia (2014a)), this means that the other 80% found work, or were placed intopositions, before the 7,400 unemployed Australian engineers, and the unknownthousandsofunderemployedanddisplacedAustralianengineerswhowerealsotryingtofindasuitablepositionintheprofession.Althoughnotallnewmigrantengineersmaybe employed in engineering roles, what superficially can appear to be an inequitableoutcome for migrant engineers is more likely to be an inequitable outcome forAustralian engineers. A more sensible approach would be to compare outcomes forunemployedrecentmigrantengineersandunemployedAustralianengineers.In2016,EngineersAustraliamadearecommendation to theFederalGovernment thatmigrant engineerswho have been granted permanent visas should receive assistancepackages to help them adjust to Australian labour market conditions (EngineersAustralia 2016b). In the view of the current author, a better solutionwould be to a)ensureallmigrantengineershavestrongEnglishlanguageskillsbeforetheyareissuedwithvisas;andb)onlyissuevisaswhentheengineeringlabourmarketinisshortageorin balance. Bringing in more engineers to a market which is in a state of massiveoversupply creates poor outcomes for unemployed, underemployed and displacedengineers,regardlessofwhethertheyareAustralianprofessionalengineers,Australiangraduateengineers,orrecentmigrantengineers.Providing assistance to new migrant engineers, as suggested by Engineers Australia(2016b),will inevitably require taxpayermoney, onewayor theother. In the currentand foreseeable engineering labour market with many Australian engineers and


graduates seeking work in the profession, such a programwould be an unjustifiableexampleof theFederalGovernmentredistributingthewealthofAustraliansto foreignnationals,anactivitywhichtheGovernmentshouldnotbeinvolvedin(Matta2015).ThemigrationofengineerstoAustraliasince2012hascontributedsubstantiallytothehuge surplus of professional engineers in the country. This is not in anyway due towrongdoingbymigrants. It is entirelydue to FederalGovernmentpolicy settings anddecisions which have been deliberate in their nature, and damaging in theirconsequences.13. Engineers Australia As theassessingauthority forengineers forDIBP, andasAustralia’speakengineeringbody,EngineersAustraliahasmoreinfluenceonFederalGovernmentpolicyinrelationtoengineeringmattersthananyotherorganisationorindividual.Overtheyears,EngineersAustraliahasproducedsomeexcellentreportscoveringtopicssuchastheengineeringlabourmarket,demographicsoftheengineeringworkforce,andengineeringeducation.The‘StatisticalOverview’series,nowinits13thedition,isacorecomponentofthis(EngineersAustralia2016d).OneaspectofEngineersAustralia’scontributionwarrantscloserscrutiny.AsmentionedinSection9.2,eachyeartheDE&T(likeitspredecessororganisations)seekscommentsfrominterestedpartiesaboutthecompositionoftheMLTSSL(knownastheSOLpriortoApril 2017). Since2012, EngineersAustralia hasmade several submissions aspart ofthisprocess.Oneveryoccasion,andasrecentlyasNovember2016,ithasrecommendedthatnoengineeringoccupationsshouldberemovedfromtheSOL.ThereasonsgivenbyEngineersAustralia for thispositionareexaminedcriticallyhere,withreference to itstwomostrecentsubmissions.13.1 Engineers Australia’s submission to the review of the SOL for 2016-17 (October 2015) In October 2015, in its submission to the review of the SOL for 2016-17, EngineersAustraliapresentedanumberofarguments indefenceof itsposition thatengineeringoccupations listedon the SOL at that time should remainon the SOL for the2016-17financialyear.Thisincludesallengineeringoccupationsconsideredinthisreport.457VisasInitssubmission,EngineersAustraliastated:

“While the SOL relates primarily to permanent skilled migration stream,temporarymigration isan important indicatorofdemand in theabsenceofreliable statistics. The number of temporary engineers in Australia is largeand equivalent to about one year’s output from the educationsystem.”(EngineersAustralia2015e,p.1).and


“However,both the stockof457visaholdersand thenumberofnewvisasapprovedremainveryhighandsuggestthatemployersarestillexperiencingdifficultiesinrecruitingengineers.(EngineersAustralia2015e,pp.3-4).

Yet in its submission to theSenateEducationandEmploymentReferencesCommitteeon the ImpactofAustralia’sTemporaryWorkVisaPrograms inMay 2015, the view ofEngineersAustraliawas:

“There is no general shortage of engineers in Australia and the number of457 visa approved last year are far higher than onewould expect if someemployers experienced difficulties recruiting an engineer practicing in aparticular area of engineering, especially in view of there being no skillsassessment.”(EngineersAustralia2015d,p.1).

InOctober2015inSkilledMigrationofEngineers,AnUpdate,EngineersAustraliasaid:

“Engineeringhasmanyareasofspecialisationandispracticed innumerouslocationsthroughoutAustralia.Thescopefordemandandsupplytobeoutofbalanceissignificant.However,evenallowingforthispossibility,thenumberoftemporarymigrantengineersnowemployedinAustraliaseemsunusuallylargegivenlabourmarketconditions.”(EngineersAustralia2015f,p.8).

InNovember2015inTheEngineeringProfession:AStatisticalOverview,thissameviewwasreiterated:

“OneofthefeaturesofthecollapseintheengineeringlabourmarketisthatithasaffectedeveryjurisdictionandnotjusttheresourcesStates.Thelevelofnew457visaapprovalsdoesnotseemconsistentwiththese labourmarketconditions.”(EngineersAustralia2015c,p.63).

The statements about 457 visas in Engineers Australia’s submission to the DE&T’s2016-17SOLreviewcannotbereconciledwithitsotherthreestatementsquotedhere,allfrom2015.DemandforEngineersEngineersAustralia’sargumentstoretainallengineeringoccupationsontheSOLreliedheavilyonthepropositionthattherewasarobustdemandforengineersatthattime:

“There is a synergybetween the results inTable3 [in the submission]andthetemporarymigrationstatisticsthatsuggeststhedemandforengineerstodoengineeringworkremainsrobusteventhoughitislowerthanintheboomyears. This is a critical reason for continuing the present SOL list ofengineeringoccupations.”(EngineersAustralia2015e,p.4).

This statement canbe contrastedwith theone inEngineersAustralia’sAnnualReport2014-15, published in November 2015, which refers to engineering labour marketconditionsasbeing:


“…thetoughestengineeringemploymentmarketexperiencedinAustralia inthepast25years”(EngineersAustralia2015a,p.8).

EngineersAustraliaestimatesdemandforengineersfromtheABSSurveyofEducationand Work. This survey samples a small section of the engineering labour force, andstandarderrorsarisingfromthesmallsamplesizesmakedataattheoccupationallevelunreliable,forcingEngineersAustraliatoonlyusedatafortheprofessionasawhole(ie.thethree-digitANZSCOMinorGroupcode)(EngineersAustralia2015e).ListingofengineeringoccupationsontheSOL(nowtheMLTSSL)resultsinanewsupplyof engineers via migration. In the opinion of the author, a far better method ofdeterminingthedemandforthatnewsupplyofengineersisbyusingtheDoE’svacancydata(Figures1and2),whichrepresentstheunmetdemandinthelabourmarket(ABS2013c). The vacancy data cover a substantial majority of the market openings forengineers.ThesedataarewellknowntoEngineersAustralia,andhavebeenusedinits‘VacanciesforEngineers’and‘LabourMarketAnalysis’reportsforthelastseveralyears(EngineersAustralia2016i).ThisinformationisavailableatthefourdigitANZSCOCodelevelandisnotaffectedbysamplingerrors.Thisisamuchmoreaccurateandinsightfulmethodofdeterminingthedemandforanadditionalsupplyofengineers,andtherelativedemandatdifferenttimeperiods.TheANZSCOfourdigitUnitGroupsforwhichvacancydataarecollected are very specific to degree-qualified engineers, as a perusal of relevant jobadvertisementsonSEEKwillconfirm.WhetheranengineeringoccupationshouldremainontheMLTSSL(formerlytheSOL)isnot just a functionofdemand for anewsupplyof engineers, but alsoof theavailablesupplyseeking tosatisfy thatdemand(Figure3andTable2).Tosay thatdemand forengineers is a “critical” reason to retain all engineering occupations on the MLTSSL,without considering the number of engineers in Australia available to satisfy thatdemand, is unjustified in the author’s opinion. Engineers Australia has focused ondemandonly,whenamorevalidparameteristhesupply:demandratio.Theevidencepresented in theprecedingsectionsof thecurrentreportdemonstratealow level of demand for a new supply of engineers as indicatedby a vacancy level inDecember2016 sitting at just67%of the level in January2006, despite the economyhavinggrownbyapproximately32%duringthattime.Furthermore,fortheprofessionasawhole,theratioofmigrantengineerstovacancies(ameasureofthesupply:demandratio)was226%greaterin2015-16thanitwasin2012-13,notingthat2012-13wastheyear by which there was no shortage of engineers in most engineering occupations(Tables1and5).Thebacklogofunemployed,underemployedanddisplacedAustralianand migrant engineers was, and is, more than sufficient to supply Australia’s unmetengineering demandwithout importingmore engineers via visas associated with theMLTSSL.TheargumentputforwardbyEngineersAustraliatoretainengineeringoccupationsontheSOLgravitatedtoshort-termdemandrequirements,onceagainemphasisingthattheSOL/MLTSSLimpactsthenear-termsupply:demandratio.


InfrastructureProjectsEngineers Australia also expressed concern that delays in non-resource sectorinfrastructure projects wouldmean that qualified engineers would be forced to seekworkoutsidetheprofession,sothatwhentheprojectsdidcommencetheavailablepoolof engineering labour would be “severely compromised”. They proffered this as anadditionalreasonthatengineeringoccupationslistedontheSOLshouldnotberemoved(EngineersAustralia2015e,pp.4-5).ThefailureoftheEngineersAustraliasubmissiontomentiontheengineeringworkforceprojectionsbytheDoE(Table4) isdifficult tounderstand.Theseprojectionstake intoaccountworkforcedemands of infrastructureprojects,whichmainly employ civil andelectrical engineering professionals. Most other engineering occupations have a pooroutlook.ThereisnobasisforarguingthatallengineeringoccupationsshouldremainontheSOL/MLTSSL.When experienced engineers are forced to seek employment outside the profession,theynearlyalwaysfindthemselvesinlowerpaying,lowerskilledjobs.Manywouldlovethe opportunity to return to the profession, but spending extended lengths of timeoutside engineering makes them less attractive to engineering employers. It is onlythroughrestricting theaccessofemployers toanendlessstreamofmigrantengineersthat theywill be forced to consider and employ Australian engineerswho have beendisplacedfromtheprofession.Todothisrequiresremovingengineeringoccupations–mostofwhicharehugelyoversupplied–fromtheSOL/MLTSSL.ThepositiontakeninEngineersAustralia’ssubmissionwastooextremeevenforDIBPwhich,followingtheSOLreview,removedUnitGroup‘2336MiningEngineers’fromthelistforthe2016-17year.13.2 Engineers Australia’s submission to the review of the SOL for 2017-18 (November 2016) InNovember2016EngineersAustraliapublisheditssubmissiontothelatestreviewoftheSOL(EngineersAustralia2016e). Itrevisitssomeoldthemesand introducessomenewonesnotpresentinthepreviousyear’ssubmission.UnemploymentandAdjustmentoftheLabourForceIn its submission, Engineers Australia states that the end of the resources boomimpactedthedemandforengineers,andthat:

“Asaconsequence,therehasbeenaperiodofpronouncedadjustmentintheengineeringlabourmarker[sic]markedbyariseintheunemploymentratein 2014, reduced labour force participation and the retirement of largenumbersofolderengineers. In2015,unemployment fell indicating that theadjustmentisinitslastphasesandmayonlycontinueforanotheryearorso.Onceadjustment is complete,Australiawillhaveanengineeringprofessionwhose size is geared to present economic circumstances.” (EngineersAustralia2016e,p.3).


and

“Theunemploymentrateforengineersincreasedto5.4%in2014comparedto an average 3.7% over the previous five years, but fell back to 4.4% in2015.”(EngineersAustralia2016e,p.8).

AsexplainedinSection5,itisnotpossibletodeterminetheunemploymentrateforthe21professionalengineeringoccupationsconsideredinthisreportusingunemploymentdatareportedbyEngineersAustralia.ThisisbecauseEngineersAustraliaaggregatesthedata for 51 occupations, and uses educational qualifications appropriate to theseoccupations as the basis for determining the engineering labour force for which theunemployment rate is estimated. This labour force includes people working in bothengineering-related(57%)andnon-engineering(43%)occupations.ThismethodologyisnotexplainedinEngineersAustralia’ssubmission.IntermsoftheSOLreview,theuseof such unemployment data provides no valid insight into the unemployment rateassociatedwithengineeringoccupations,whetheraggregatedornot.By focusing on the unemployment rate as the only measure of the state of theengineering labour market, Engineers Australia has not included all those engineerswho,duetomarketconditions,havebeenforcedtoworkpart-timeintheirengineeringoccupation– insomecasesonlya fewhoursperweek–andall thosewhohavebeendisplacedfromtheprofessionandwhowanttoreturn.Thesepeoplearealsopartofthecohortwhoareapplyingforfull-timejobsandcompetingwiththehugeannualinfluxofmigrantengineersforalimitednumberofavailablejobs.Thenumberofapplicantsperengineering vacancyhas increased every year since2011-12 (whenmost engineeringoccupations were flagged on the SOL – Table 5), and has in fact tripled since then(Figure3),despitepotentialfluctuationsintheunemploymentrate.In each of its its Occupation Summary Sheets for the 2015-16 SOL review, the DE&Tnotedthat:

“A low occupational unemployment rate does not necessarily mean thatindividuals wanting to work in the occupation are finding appropriateemployment.Theymaybeworkingfewerhoursthantheywanttoormaybeworking in other occupations while they are looking for work. Theseindividualsarenotincludedintheunemploymentrate.”(DE&T2015b).

It should also be noted that unlike national unemployment data, occupationalunemployment estimates exclude first time job seekers and people who have beenunemployedformorethantwoyears(DE&T2015b),thereforeartificiallyloweringthereportedfigures.Thusthroughitsfocusontheunemploymentrateasthesolemeasureoftheadjustmentoftheengineeringlabourmarket,EngineersAustraliahasexcludedfromitsanalysisanyconsiderationofthefollowingfourgroupsintheengineeringprofession:

• Professionalengineerswhohavebeenunemployedformorethantwoyears• Graduateengineerswhoareunemployedandwhoarestilltryingtoobtaintheir

firstengineeringjob


• Professional engineers who have been forced to work part-time in theiroccupation

• Professional engineers and graduates who have been forced to seek work inother occupations but who want to find employment in the engineeringprofession.

This is a substantial cohort of people whose prospects will be diminished further ifengineering occupations remain on the SOL/MLTSSL. Ironically, in its latest annualreportEngineersAustraliaclaimsthatitis“continuingtoexploreavenuesforinclusion”(EngineersAustralia2016f,p.6).DisplacementofEngineersOnthesubjectofthedisplacementofengineersfromtheengineeringlabourforce,initssubmissionEngineersAustraliasays:

“Theflexibilityandadaptabilityof“qualifiedengineers”hasenabledmanytomoveintonon-engineeringworkandthishasassistedadjustmenttopresenteconomiccircumstances.Manywillnotreturntoengineeringandexperienceshows that the longer theyareaway the lower theprobabilityofa return.”(EngineersAustralia2016e,pp.8-9).

What Engineers Australia does not point out is thatmany of the engineerswho havebeen displaced have been forced to take employment in lower skilled, lower paidoccupations and would re-enter the engineering workforce if they could. Manyemployersdiscriminaterelentlesslyagainstpeoplewhohavenotbeenabletopracticetheir profession for an extended period of time. The most effective way to assistdisplacedengineersre-enter theprofession is tohalt the flowofmigrantengineerssothat employers haveno choicebut to considerdisplaced engineers for vacancies. TheattitudeofEngineersAustraliaappearstobethatdisplacedengineersarejustpartofthe‘collateral damage’ of the economic downturn. Following on from this, since thesepeopledonotimpacttheengineeringunemploymentratetheycanbeignored,therebyjustifyingyetanotheryears’intakeofthousandsofmigrantengineers.457VisasandDemandforEngineersIn its November 2016 submission for the 2017-18 SOL review, Engineers Australiarepeatssomeoftheargumentsfoundinitspreviousyear’ssubmission:

“Aswell as permanent skilledmigration, at any given time there are largenumbers of temporary migrant engineers working in Australia on theTemporaryWork (Skilled) visa (subclass 457). The presence of temporaryskilledmigration is an indicationof excessdemand for engineers…The factthat the number of temporary migrant engineers has remained so highindicates that despite major adjustment in the engineering labour market,there is a strong underlying demand for engineers.” (Engineers Australia2016e,pp.6-7).

YetinitsSkilledMigrationPositionStatementpublishedinthesamemonth(November2016)itobserves:


“Sincelate2012,demandforengineersinAustraliahasfallenandthereisnolongerawidespreadskillsshortage.Yet,despiteasmallfallinthenumberof457visaholders,boththenumberofengineersemployedontemporaryvisasand new 457 visa approvals are too high for current labour marketconditions.”(EngineersAustralia2016b,p.2).

Once again, the two statements cannot be reconciled. It is surprising that EngineersAustraliacanbelievethatthepresenceofengineersonsubclass457visasequatestoan“excess demand” for engineers, as stated in its SOL submission. When a 457 visa isgranted,thedurationofthevisacanbeuptofouryears.Themigrantengineersworkingonthesevisasarenotrequiredtorelinquishtheirpositionsinaneconomicdownturn,so long as their own positions remain viable. No market testing is required if anengineerona457visawantstotransfertoapermanentresidencevisaandremain inthe same job. It is therefore entirely possible to have thousands ofmigrant engineersworkingon457visasduringrisingunemployment,underemploymentanddisplacementof other engineers.Newapprovalsof this employer-sponsoredvisahave fallen in linewiththesignificantfallinprofessionalengineeringvacancies(Figure10).Engineers Australia has also assumed that employers resort to using workers onsubclass 457 visas only because of a skills shortage. Studies on the motivations ofemployerswhoutilisethe457visasystem,assummarisedbyHowe(2015),havefoundthat a significant minority do so because of the behavioural characteristics of suchworkers,andbecauseofthenatureofthevisaitself,whichlimitsworkermobility.Ironically, Engineers Australia includes some ICT professionals as part of its‘EngineeringTeam’.TherecentreportfromtheAustralianPopulationResearchInstituteabouttheabuseofsubclass457visasintheICTprofession(Birrellatal.2016)shouldbeenoughtocastdoubtsinanyone’smindabouttheintegrityandmarketrelevanceofthisvisaprogram.FutureWorkforceRequirementsEngineersAustralia’ssubmissionmovesontolookatfuturedemandforengineers:

“It is Engineers Australia’s view that the government’s medium terminnovation ambitions require an enlarged engineering capability, especiallyinnewandemergingtechnologies.Toachievethisresult,inthefirstinstance,Australian universities need to continue increasing graduate engineers.However,statisticsshowthatrecentgrowthinthisareaiscomingtoanendbecause insufficient high school students are studying foundationmathematicsandsciencesubjects.Skilledmigrationisthemeanstobackstopefforts to producemoreAustralian engineers.” (Engineers Australia 2016e,pp.3-4).

As shown in Table 12, depending on the discipline, between 29% and 58% ofengineering graduates available for full-time work could not find work in anengineering, scientific, technical ormanagement role in2015.Market conditionshavedeterioratedforsomedisciplinessincethen,andthesedisappointingnumbersmaybeeven worse when the results for 2016 and 2017 are published. The FederalGovernment’s innovation initiatives will only ever involve a small proportion of the


engineeringworkforce, and there isno evidenceat all that therewill be anyneed foruniversities to increase thenumberofengineeringgraduatesabovecurrent levels.Onthe contrary, it is likely that fewergraduateengineerswillbe required in themarket,andthatmarketforceswilldrivethenumberofdomesticacceptancesintoengineeringcourses to lower levels as awareness grows among potential students about the verysubduedjobprospectsfornewgraduates(Norton2016).Migrantengineerscanbebroughtintotheengineeringlabourforcealmost‘ontap’duetoshortvisaprocessingtimes.However,bringinginmigrantengineerswhenthelabourmarketconditionsareverypoorisnotasoundstrategy.ItputsadditionalpressureonAustralianengineers trying toobtainwork in theprofession, andmakes it evenmoredifficult for domestic graduates to find engineeringwork, ultimately leading to fewerdomesticenrolmentsinengineeringcourses.In its submission, Engineers Australia also turns its attention to the other end of thecareerjourney,retirement.Inreviewingthenumberofengineerswhoareovertheageof 55, 60 and 65 respectively, Engineers Australia uses 2011 census statistics for itsdefinitionoftheengineering‘labourforce’.

“Censusstatisticsshowthat in201173,931engineersor28%ofthelabourforcewereaged50ormoreyears.Nowsome fiveyears later, thisgroup isaged55ormoreyears.”(EngineersAustralia2016e,p.8).

Onceagain this isabroad ‘labour force’grouping that includesprofessionalengineersand associate engineers, and it also includes qualified engineers who are working innon-engineering occupations, as well as those who are working in engineeringoccupations. In 2011, only 62% of this ‘labour force’ was working in engineeringoccupations(EngineersAustralia2014a).Byincludingqualifiedengineerswhoarenotworking in engineering occupations, Engineers Australia can quote numbers forpotentialretirementsthatare61%greaterthanwouldbethecaseifonlythoseactuallyworkinginengineeringoccupationswereincluded.Ifaqualifiedengineerworkinginanon-engineering occupation retires, by definition that person does not need to bereplacedbyanengineer.The retirement of engineers working in engineering occupations is a continuousoccurrence. If an abnormally high number of retirements creates a demand forengineers to replace the retirees, this will ultimately show up in vacancy statistics(Figure2)andprojecteddemand(Table4).Nothingisevidentsofar.Thereisnobasisfor bringing in moremigrant engineers via listing of engineering occupations on theSOL/MLTSSLinordertoaddresspotentialfutureretirementswhenthecurrentlabourmarket is so poor, and migrant visas can be processed in a short period of time, ifnecessary,atalaterdate.In its Occupational Summary Sheets for the 2015-16 SOL review, the DE&T lists theproportion of people aged of 55 or older as a percentage of the workforce in thatoccupation,reportedattheANZSCOUnitGrouplevel(DE&T2015c).Table13presentsasummaryforengineeringUnitGroups.


The DE&T (2015d) also reports that for Australian professionals as a group, thepercentageofworkersaged55orolder is17.5%,basedonthe2011Census. Itcanbeseen that the engineering profession is younger than Australian professionals onaverage.Thereisnopressingneedtoadmitmoremigrantengineersnowtocopewithfutureretirements.

Table13Proportion of engineers aged 55 or older as apercentageoftheoccupationalworkforce(DE&T2015c)ANZSCOCode

Unitgroup Percentofworkforceaged55orolder

2331 ChemicalandMaterialsEngineers 15.4

2332 CivilEngineeringProfessionals 17.1

2333 ElectricalEngineers 16.92334 ElectronicsEngineers 19.32335 Industrial,Mechanical


14.6

2336 MiningEngineers 12.82339 OtherEngineering

Professionals 13.4

WhiletheFederalGovernmentresortstotheunrealisable‘StockpilingTheory’(Section10.1) to justify itsmedium- to long-term skilledmigration objectives, in the author’sopinionEngineersAustraliacreatestheclearimpressionthatithasnointerestatallinthoseAustralianengineerswhocannotfindaplaceintheprofession,dismissingthemascasualties of the adjustment in the engineering labourmarket. Consider the followingstatement from the peak engineering organisation’s submission to the 2017-18 SOLreview:

“Adjustment in the engineering labourmarket is not yet concluded and islikely to continue in the short term. Certainly, within the time horizon forpermanent migration, adjustment will be well and truly completed. Therehave been painful consequences for many engineers who have changedcareerdirections,whohaveexperiencedgeographicdislocation tocontinueengineering careers andwho have retiredwhen they expected to continueworking.Never-the-less, adjustmenthasoccurredandwhen concludedwillleave Australia with an engineering labour force geared to a slow growth,commoditiesbasedeconomy.”(EngineersAustralia2016e,p.9).

If the market is still “adjusting”, and the “time horizon for permanent immigration”relatestoskillsneedsinfive-to-tenyearstimeasperthedefinitionfortheSOLreview(DE&T 2016e), it makes no sense to continue to bring in any migrant engineers onpermanentvisasnow,whenthejobmarketforengineersisinadismalstate.Thisisnotasustainablestrategy.


Based on the evidence presented so far, the author’s interpretation of EngineersAustralia’sperspectiveisthatthisorganisationbelievesmoremigrantengineersneedtobe brought into the country each year as a fresh ‘top up’, so that the country can bereadyforanyfutureeventualitywhichmightbringanincreaseddemandforengineers.ThoseAustralianandrecentmigrantengineerswhohavebeenwaitingpatientlyforanopportunity to join or rejoin the profession are considered by Engineers Australia tohave been “adjusted” out of the labour market, and are therefore presumed to beunaffectedbytheadditionofthousandsmoremigrantengineerseachyear.ItisonthisbizarrefoundationthatEngineersAustraliabuildsitscaseforengineeringdisciplinestoremainontheSOLfor2017-18.13.3 Conclusions about Engineers Australia’s submissions to the SOL reviews In the opinion of the author, the two submissions of Engineers Australia to the SOLreviews discussed above have many shortcomings, and are not of a standardcommensuratewiththatofanorganisationwhichseesitselfasthe“trustedvoiceoftheengineering profession” (Engineers Australia 2016f, p.1). The shortcomings aredocumentedinTable14.In the author’s opinion, to fully understand the context of the contradictory, selectiveandself-interestedaspectsofthesubmissions,itisnecessarytounderstandthefinancialinterestthatEngineersAustraliahasinengineeringmigration.Accordingtoits2015-16AnnualReport,theorganisationprocessedmorethan12,000applicationsformigrationskills assessments from potential members of the ‘engineering team’ seeking apermanentresidencevisa(EngineersAustralia2016f).For thiseffort, it received fromthepotentialmigrantsrevenueof$8.8million,representing18.8%of itstotalrevenue(Engineers Australia 2016g). For the occupations covered in the current report,approximately 6800 migration assessments would have been performed with a pro-ratedrevenueofaround$5million.EngineersAustraliaclaimsthatitsmigrationskillsassessmentsaredone“atcost”(Patty2017a).Evenso,ifonlyhalftheannualintakeofmigrantengineersonpermanentvisasbecome full members of Engineers Australia, for the 2015-16 financial year thatrepresentsanannualrevenuefrommembershipfeesofapproximately$1.9millionfromthis cohort alone (Engineers Australia 2016h). Furthermore, a steady flow of incomeand work from migration assessments can potentially help to smooth over workshortfallsinotherareasoftheorganisation’soperations.Intheauthor’sopinion,thereisclearlyafinancialbenefitforEngineersAustraliawhenthereisasteady,orincreasing,numberofmigrantengineersseekingpermanentworkingrightseachyear.In the context of this discussion, it is noteworthy that in its 2013-14 and 2014-15Annual Reports, Engineers Australia reported that it was continuing to build itsrelationship with the Migration Institute of Australia and DIBP (Engineers Australia2014b,2015a).Intheopinionoftheauthor,EngineersAustraliahasaclearconflictofinterestwhenitpresents its case to the DE&T’s annual SOL/MLTSSL review that engineeringoccupationsshouldremainonthelist.Theactualextenttowhichthefinancialinteresthas influenced the recommendations of Engineers Australia – if at all – remainsunknowntotheauthor.


Table14Author’sopinionsoftheshortcomingsofEngineersAustralia’ssubmissionstothelasttwoSOLreviews,andevidencetosupportthoseopinions

ShortcomingofSubmissions Evidence

Contradictory Statementsabout457visascomparedwithstatementsmadeaboutthisvisabyEngineersAustraliainotherdocuments

Superficial/ill-informed Emphasisondemandratherthanthesupply:demandratio

Statementthatengineerson457visasareevidenceofexcessdemand

Selective/obfuscating DidnotmentionDoEengineeringworkforceprojections

DidnotmentionDoEengineeringvacancydata

DidnotmentionDoEstatisticsaboutnumberofapplicantsperengineeringvacancy

Didnotexplainhowitderiveditsengineeringunemploymentstatistics

Ignoredordownplayedfourgroupsofengineerstryingtore-entertheprofession

DidnotmentionDE&Tdatashowingthatthepercentageofengineersaged55andolderislowerthantheaverageforprofessionalsinAustralia

Self-interested Failedtoproperlyconsidertheinterestsofthoseengineerswhohavebecomeunemployedordisplacedaspartofthe‘adjustment’ofthelabourmarket

Overstatedtheforeseeabledemandforengineers

Overstatedthepotentialnumberoffutureengineeringretirements

Recommended‘topups’ofthousandsofmigrantengineersvialistingofengineeringoccupationsontheSOL,regardlessofpoorcurrentmarketconditionsandthesubduedmarketoutlookfortheforeseeablefuture.

In forming their own opinions about the material presented in this Section aboutEngineersAustralia, readers are encouraged to review theoriginaldocuments so thatthey can fully understand the context, nature and details of Engineers Australia’spositions on different topics. The commentary and opinions presented in the currentreportreflecttheperspectivesoftheauthor.


NotethatinlateFebruaryorearlyMarch2017,afterresearchforSection13hadbeencompleted by the author, Engineers Australia removed online public access to thefollowingdocument:

- SkilledMigrationofEngineers,AnUpdate(EngineersAustralia2015f)14. Australian Council of Engineering Deans InNovember2016, theAustralianCouncilofEngineeringDeans (ACED)madea shortsubmissionto thereviewof theSOLfor2017-18(ACED2016).Thesubmissionstatedthat removal of engineering occupations from the SOL would have four negativeconsequences.Beginningwiththefirst:

“(1) It is noted that the AI Group indices for both manufacturing andconstruction are rated as expanding and well above the low levelsexperienced up until 2015. The growth in demand for engineers in thedefence sector, infrastructure sector and energy sector is growing rapidlyandashortagewouldseverelycurtailAustralia’sability to respond.AstatesuchasSouthAustraliawouldbeparticularlyimpactedbyaninabilitytore-positionitsindustrytorespondtonewchallenges.”(ACED2016,p.1).

TheAustralian IndustryGroup(AIG) indicesmentionedarebasedonascaleof0-100.Aboveavalueof50, the sector is considered tobeexpanding.Below50, the sector isconsideredtobedeclining.Avalueof50isneutral.Thedistancefrom50isameasureofthestrengthoftheexpansionordecline.AsofMarch2017,theAustralianPerformanceofManufacturing Indexhadavalueof57.5,witha12-monthaverageof53.1. For thesamemonth,theAustralianPerformanceofConstructionIndexhadavalueof51.2witha12-monthaverageof49.3(AIG2017).Theexpansionismodestformanufacturingandvery small for construction.These indices arenot specific to employment, anddonotcorrelatewithdemandforprofessionalengineers.TheACEDcommentaboutthegrowthindemandforengineersavoidsanyreferencetotheactualunmetdemandforengineers(Figure2),ortheDoE’sassessmentofprojectedemploymentgrowthineachengineeringUnitGroup(Table4).DoEprojectionstakeintoaccount futureGovernmentprogramswhichwill requireengineering resources.ACEDhas produced no evidence at all to support its claim of rapidly growing demand forengineersinthreesectors.It isonlyfor ‘2332CivilEngineeringProfessionals’thatanygrowthindemandisevident(Figure2),andthisisfocusedoninfrastructureandhigh-riseapartmentbuildings.ACED’ssolution to itsunsubstantiatedbelief that there is rapidgrowth indemand forengineers inthedefenceandenergysectors istokeepengineeringoccupationsontheSOL, which in 2017-18 will result in at least another 6500 engineers being givensubclass189permanentresidencevisastoworkinAustralia,manyofwhomwillhaveno expertise in either thedefence or energy sectors.Defence jobs for engineers oftenrequire highly specialised skills along with Australian citizenship. The latterrequirement,whenpresent, automatically excludesmigrant engineerswhohave beengrantedvisasassociatedwithengineeringoccupationslistedontheSOL/MLTSSL.


IntermsoftheAustralianenergysector,thereisnogrowthinpowergenerationoroilandgas.Thereisgrowthincoalprices,andAustralia’sexportsofcoalandcokejumpedin the second half of 2016 (Austrade 2017). In itsmost recent (2016) survey on theemployment of its members, the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy(AusIMM) reported that 12.6% of mining engineers were unemployed; 11.3% ofmetallurgical, materials and chemical engineers were unemployed; and 9.4 % of itsprofessionals in the coal industry were unemployed (AusIMM 2016). Yet one of thereasonsACEDwantsengineeringoccupationstoremainontheSOL/MLTSSLisbecauseof presumed demand for engineers in the energy sector, without any regard for thehighlyqualifiedandexperiencedsupplythatisavailabletosatisfythatdemand.The many thousands of unemployed and displaced Australian and recent migrantengineers who are seeking work in the profession have been completely ignored byACED.Thesubmissionthensays:

“(2)Theeducationofengineersrequiresat leasta fiveyeartimeframe.Theremoval of engineering from the SOL would be a short term action withlonger term implications, particularly on student recruitment and thegraduatepipeline. It isnoted that thedemand for engineering jobs is oftencyclicalasexemplifiedbytheminingindustrywheretherecentdownturnindemandhasalreadybottomedoutandironandcoalpricesarerebounding.”(ACED2016,p.2).

This statement ignores the 6,600Australian bachelor degree graduateswho have notbeenabletofindworkinanengineering,scientific,technicalormanagementrolesince2013(Table9),andtheunknownthousandsofinternationalgraduateengineersinthecountryinthesameposition.Manyofthesepeoplewouldwelcometheopportunitytoworkasanengineer.Atpresent,approximately38%ofAustralianengineeringbachelorgraduates who are available for full-time work cannot find any work even broadlyrelatedtotheirfieldofstudy.BasedonDoEprojections(Table4),thiswillcontinueforthe foreseeable future. It is this factor in particular which will continue to have anegativeimpactondomesticstudentrecruitmentandthegraduatepipeline,asitmakesengineeringalessattractivecareeroption.Accesstotheengineeringlabourmarketforinternationalgraduatesmustceaseuntilthemarketimproves.Inthenextparagraphofitssubmission,ACED’sfinancialinterestisindirectlydeclared:

“(3) There are approximately 38,000 international students studyingEngineering and Related Technologies which (at an assumed $30k pa)represents approximately $1B in income to the University sector. Many ofthese are influenced by the SOL and much of the surplus generated fromeducatingtheseinternationalstudentsisusedtoaugmenttheGovernment’sand the student’s contribution for domestic engineering students.” (ACED2016,p.2).


Even if engineering occupations are removed from the SOL/MLTSSL, there is noevidence at all that international students will stop coming to study engineering inAustralia.Noindividualonatemporaryvisa(suchasaninternationalstudent)isgivenanyguaranteethatapermanentresidencevisawillsubsequentlybeavailable,andtherecanbenoexpectation that itwill be. IfAustralia’s skilledmigrationprogram is luringinternationalstudentstostudyinAustraliaonthebasisthatapermanentresidencevisawillbewaitingforthemwhentheirstudiesarecomplete–regardlessofmarketdemandfortheirqualifications–thenintheopinionoftheauthortheskilledmigrationprogramiscorrupt.If an argument is being made that engineering occupations should remain on theMLTSSLnowbecauserecentinternationalgraduateswereinfluencedbythepresenceofan occupation on the SOL/MLTSSL five years ago when they decided to study inAustralia,thatargumentisnonsensical.Usingthislogic,itisneverpossibletoremoveanoccupation from the MLTSSL. It is also means that the control of the listing ofoccupationsontheMLTSSLwouldbegovernedbythedesiresofforeignstudentsratherthanbytheneedsoftheAustralianemploymentmarketandtheinterestsofAustraliancitizens.The Federal Government, on behalf of the Australian community, will always fundengineeringplacesfordomesticstudentsbasedontheimportanceofengineeringtotheeconomyand to society, regardless of the level of feespaidby international students.Anysuggestionotherwiseismisleading.ACED’sfinalpointisthat:

“(4)Theengineeringindustryisfacingagenerationalreplacementissuewithan ageingworkforce. Many engineers are reaching retirement age and thereplacementswill come from a blend of young graduates and experiencedskilled engineers from overseas. Engineers Australia are currentlydevelopingaworkforcedevelopmentstrategytoaddressthisrealconcern.”(ACED2016,p.2).

Theissueoftheretirementofengineerswasaddressedindetail inSection13.2 inthediscussionaboutEngineersAustralia’ssubmissionto theSOLreviewfor2017-18.Thepercentageof engineers agedover55 in eachUnitGroup is lower than forAustralianprofessionalsasawhole,withthesoleexceptionof‘2334ElectronicsEngineers’(Table13).Experiencedmigrantengineerscanbebroughtintothecountryquickly,asneeded,whenthemarketdemandreturns.Australia’scurrentunmetdemandforengineerscanbe satisfied by the pool of engineers already in the country who are unemployed,underemployedordisplacedfromtheprofession.ACEDneverevenconsidersthisgroupofengineers.ThereisnobasisforretaininganyengineeringoccupationsontheMLTSSL.Intheopinionoftheauthor,theACEDsubmissionissuperficial,poorlyresearched,andbased on several unsubstantiated claims. Engineering deans occupy public positionsfundedbythetaxpayer.TheAustralianpublicdeservesbetterthanthis.


15. Professionals Australia In August 2016, Professionals Australia wrote an open letter to the Minister forImmigration and Border Protection expressing concern about the retention ofengineeringoccupationsontheSOLwhennoshortagesofengineersexist(ProfessionalsAustralia2016b).Morethan1000supporterssignedtheletter(ProfessionalsAustralia2016a).NoresponsewasreceivedfromtheMinister.Onthefirstdayof2017,anarticlefeaturingcommentsfromProfessionalsAustraliaandEngineersAustraliaonthesubjectofthelistingofengineeringoccupationsontheSOLappeared in the online versions of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age (Patty2017a).Someof the comments fromEngineersAustralia thatwere reported in the article aresummarisedinthefollowingitems:1)Anengineeringskillsshortagewouldagainemergeaspartofaboomandbustcycle.2) Domestic engineering graduations have been growing very slowly over recentdecades,justifyingalong-termpipelineofskilledmigrants3)Theengineeringemploymentmarketisagainontherise4)ProfessionalsAustraliahadan interest in forcingaskills shortage toreducesupplyanddriveupsalaries.In relation to thecomment in Item1,EngineersAustraliamadenoattempt toexplainwhat would happen to engineers who were unemployed or displaced during theunspecified time period until the next boom occurred,with immigration of engineerscontinuingunabated.In relation to the comment in Item 2, the data from the DE&T (2016f) show thatgraduations in Engineering and Related Technologies increased by 45% between theendof2006andtheendof2014(Figure13).Theemploymentmarketwasinbalanceby2012-13.Growthratesingraduatenumbersinpastdecadesareirrelevanttothecurrentstateofthejobmarketandtothejobprospectsofnewgraduatesnow.In relation to the comment in Item3, engineering employment is only on the rise for‘2332 Civil Engineering Professionals’. Vacancies for other engineering Unit Groupsremainsubduedandstatic(Figure2).In relation to the comment in Item 4, Professionals Australia was responding to theconcerns of its members. The 1000 supporters who signed Professionals Australia’slettertotheMinisterforImmigrationandBorderProtectionjustwantfairaccesstotheengineering job market, which is very much hampered by bringing in more migrantengineers each year onpermanent and temporary visas. In the opinionof the author,this is the most troubling aspect of Engineers Australia’s attitude: the corollary thatengineersas individualscount fornothing,and if theyhavebeen“adjusted”outof theworkforceorpreventedfromenteringtheworkforcebymarketconditions,thatisofnoconsequence.InEngineersAustralia’sview,theadditionofnewmigrantengineersmustcontinueunabated.


Declaration: The author is not a member of Engineers Australia. The author is not amemberofProfessionalsAustralia,andisnotamemberofanyunionorunion-affiliatedorganisation.Atthetimeofwriting,theauthorisanunemployedprofessionalengineer.16. Reasons Why the Federal Government has Deliberately Oversupplied the Engineering Labour Market From the perspective of the author, there are four main reasons why the FederalGovernment has knowingly and deliberately continued to oversupply the engineeringlabourmarket. The reasons arise from a convergence of interests that support eitherthis course of action in particular, or increasedmigration generally. The Governmentprovides advantage to these interests at the expense of unemployed, underemployedand displacedAustralian andmigrant engineers. Consideration by the Government ofthe negative economic, social and governance consequences of its approach has beenabsentorsuppressed.16.1 Advantage to business Engineering businesses benefit when there is an ample supply of labour. Thismeansthatitismorelikelytheywillbeabletofindnewemployeeswhomeetallessentialanddesired aspects of available positions, and who will therefore require no training.Importantly, an oversupply helps to turn the recruitment process into a biddingwar,with sometimesdesperate candidates seeking toundercut rivals by offering to acceptsalarieslowerthanthegeneralmarketrate,therebyloweringthecosttocompaniesoftaking on new employees. This has been facilitated over the last few years as majorcompanieshavemovedtoanonlinesubmissionprocessforjobapplications.Applicantsare frequently asked to state their ‘salary expectations’. Sometimes an answer to thisquestioniscompulsory,andsometimesitisoptional.Inanycase,thisquestionisaskedatthetimeapplicantsaresubmittingtheircoverlettersandresumes,whenmanydetailsofthepositionandremunerationpackagemaybeunknown.Notallengineeringemployersseektorecruitbasedonthelowestbidder,butthetrendisevidentinthemarket.Asanextremeexampleinarelatedprofession,themajorityofthelargenumberofIndianICTprofessionalsenteringAustraliaon457visasarebeingpaidatleast $30,000below theaverageAustraliansalary foran ICTprofessional, andalmost 30% are being paid at or below the starting salary for a graduate ICTprofessional(Birrelletal.2016).ThedilemmaforanyAustralianstudentconsideringacareerasanICTprofessional isclear:does itmakesensetospendyearsstudyingandaccruingstudentdebttoentertheprofessionwhenitmaybedifficulttofindaposition,and the remuneration might turn out to be no better than for people in otheroccupationswhodidnotgotouniversity?EmployersenjoythebenefitsofoperatinginAustralia’sadvanced,developedeconomy.Thesebenefitsincludeastablepoliticalsystemandbureaucracy;acomprehensivelegalsystemwhere rights can be enforced; relativelymodern infrastructure; relatively lowcrimerates;safeandhealthyfoodandwater;andarelativelycleanenvironment.Thisisa situation inwhichbusinessesand their employeeshave theopportunity thrive. It isfunded by a taxation system, but when Australians are displaced by overseasprofessionals who work for low salaries, less tax revenue is collected and more


unemploymentbenefitsarepaidbytheGovernment.SomecompanieswantthebenefitsAustraliaofferswithoutmakingafaircontributioninreturn.Business interests have a profound impact on Australian migration policy, not justthrough lobbying but also through active involvement. The Federal Government hasallowedbusinessviewpointstodominateitsapproachtoskilledmigration,whilegivingscant attention to the impact of its policies on employees who constitute the vastmajority of the country’s labour force of 12.6 million people. Included in this labourforcenumberaremorethan700,000unemployedpersons(ABS2016b).Herearethreesignificantexamples:1)WhentheFederalGovernmentestablisheditsreviewoftheintegrityofthesubclass457visasystem(Azariasetal.2014),itappointedafour-memberpaneltoconductthereview. The panel comprised one representative from the peak council for businessorganisations;twomemberswithafinancialinterestinthemigrationindustry;andanacademicdemographer.Thepanelconducteditsworkdiligentlyandprofessionally,butits members represented a very narrow range of perspectives. There was norepresentationonthepanelforAustralianemployees,orforthosegroupsthathadbeenamong those most harmed by abuses of the subclass 457 visa, ie. non-unionisedprofessionals.Intheopinionoftheauthor,byfarthebiggestshortcomingofthereviewwasthefailureto address the absence of amarket testingmechanism at the expiry of a 457 visa, orwhenthevisaholderseekstochangetoanothervisa.AddressingthisissuewaswithinthetermsofreferencegiventothepanelbytheGovernment.Underthecurrentsystem,whichalsoprevailedatthetimeofthereview,atemporarymigrantona457visacanapplyfor,andbegranted,apermanentresidencyvisawhileremaininginthesamejob,regardlessofmarketconditions.Whenthemarket is inastateofoversupplyand jobsare difficult to obtain, there is no requirement for unemployed, underemployed anddisplacedAustralianworkers tobe given theopportunity to apply for the job; rather,priority is given to the foreignnationalwho ispresent in the countryona temporaryvisa. Very few Australian employees (and voters) would consider this fair andreasonable, but business interests argue against labour market testing in everycircumstance.2) As described in Section 10.2, the seven-memberMACSM is comprised of business,employer and immigration industry representatives, and one union representative.There is no representation for the 85% of the labour force that is non-unionised(Toscano 2015). In the opinion of the author, the MACSM members have, and willcontinue to, discharge their duties diligently andprofessionally.Notwithstanding this,the interestsofAustralianemployeescannotbeadequatelyprotectedandrepresentedwhen, once again, the Federal Government has appointed a committee with such anarrow, one-sided perspective. The Federal Government obviously has a firmly heldviewthatAustralianemployeesarenotstakeholdersintheimmigrationsystemandtheconsequencesimmigrationhasonthelabourmarket.3) In recent years the Federal Government has signed free trade agreements withseveral countries, most notably China. Despite an enormous public outcry about thepotential negative impact on Australian jobs, the Federal Government pushed ahead


withtheChina-AustraliaFreeTradeAgreementwith fewchanges. Inacomprehensivereviewoftheagreement,Howe(2015)concludedthat:

“there are real concerns that the ChAFTA greatly increases the ability ofChinese workers to access the Australian labour market, without sufficientregardforthenecessaryregulatoryframeworktoprotectthoseworkersfromexploitation or to safeguard Australian job opportunities, wages andconditions.”(Howe2015,p.3).

ProvidingadvantagetobusinesswithoutconsideringtheimpactonAustraliancitizenshas been a hallmark of successive Federal Governments for most of the last decade.Howe(2015)notes:

“Increasingly, there is an unquestioned economic philosophy that systemsneed to be less regulated by government and driven by the needs ofemployers, with market responsiveness, timeliness and flexibility as thedriversandindicatorsofsuccess.”(Howe2015,p.3).

Thisobservation isa fairdescriptionofoneof thedriving forcesshaping immigrationpolicy.This“economicphilosophy” is justthat:aphilosophy.Government immigrationdecisions– forexample, tomassivelyoversupply theengineering labourmarket–arenearlyalwaysmadewithoutanyquantitativeeconomicorsocialanalysisoftheimpacts.Overtime,thevalueandprimacyofthecitizenshipofAustraliansintheirowncountryhasbeendiminishedasadvantageandpowerhavebeenhandedoverbyGovernmentstobusinessandmigrationinterests.16.2 Advantage to the migration industry The migration industry, as defined here, consists of all those organisations andindividualswhoreceiverevenuefrom,orinrelationto,immigrationtoAustralia.The migration industry constantly lobbies for increased immigration, advocating forabsurdlyhighannualintakes–see,forexample,theprojectionsinTheEconomicImpactofMigration(MigrationCouncilAustralia2015).Therationaleissimple:everyvisathatisprocessedequates tomoremoney formigrationagents,andpotentiallyothers.Thisindustry has a financial conflict of interest every time it seeks to maintain or boostannualmigrationlevels.Theoversupplyoftheengineeringlabourmarketisnotoneofthe goals of the industry, but getting more migrants into the country is. When theGovernmentdoestheformer,itachievesthelatter.16.3 Advantage to universities ‘Education-relatedtravelservices’wereratedasAustralia’sthirdlargestexportproductin 2015, valued at $18.8 billion and representing 5.9% of Australia’s total exports(ParliamentofAustralia2016).Thiscategoryconsistsofmoneyspentbyinternationalstudentsoncourse feesand livingexpenses includingaccommodation.Of the650,000international studentsenrolled inAustralia in2015,at least270,000wereenrolled inhighereducationcourses,andabout170,000wereenrolledinvocationalcourses(Dodd2016).


TherehasbeenasignificantincreaseinthenumberofinternationalstudentsenrolledincoursesinAustraliainrecentyears.ThishasbeendrivenbythelowerAustraliandollar,whichmakes Australian education less expensive for overseas students. The industryrecognisesthatitcannottakethislargeannualgrowthrateforgranted(Dodd2016).It can be seen that education services for international students are big business inAustralia.Thisistrueforuniversities,whichbenefitfromthenon-Governmentrevenuestreamsprovidedbyinternationalstudents.Thismakestheseorganisationslessrelianton Federal Government funding, a situationwhich suits both the universities and theGovernment. In the 2014 Federal Budget, a 20% cut to government subsidies fordomestic students was announced, but has not yet been implemented (Knott 2016).Universitieshaveafinancialincentivetoincreasethenumberofinternationalstudentstheyenroll,andthisincludesengineeringstudents.In terms of the engineering labour market, it makes no difference how manyinternational students undergo engineering training in Australia. The problems occurwhenmany of these students graduate and apply for, and receive, visaswhich allowthemtocompeteforthelimitednumberofentryleveljobsinengineering,inamarketwhere a significant proportion of domestic graduates cannot find work that is evenbroadlyrelevanttotheirfieldofstudy(Table12).Given the financial conflict of interest universities have in relation to internationalstudents, it is unrealistic to expect them to regulate their enrolments. However, asdiscussed in Section 11, they have an ethical imperative to ensure that prospectivestudentsaregivenrealisticinformationaboutthefutureAustralianengineeringlabourmarket. It isunacceptablethatstudentsconsideringacareer inengineering“arebeingfedanillusionofbrightprospects”(Birrelletal.2016).16.4 Population targets The Federal Government’s population projections documented in its 2015Intergenerational Report include an annual net overseas migration (NOM) target of215,000peopleperyear(CommonwealthofAustralia2015).This includespermanentand temporary skilled migrants, as well as other categories such as family andhumanitarianmigrants. Because theGovernment has persistedwith suchhigh annuallevels of NOM, labour market oversupply has been a likely outcome for someoccupations.When occupations are occasionally removed from theMLTSSL or STSOLdue to oversupply, the Government makes no commensurate reduction in the NOM,meaningthatoversupplythenbecomesmorelikelyinotheroccupations.Successive Federal Governments have argued that high immigration intakes arenecessary because, over time, the ratio of people in the workforce to those beingsupportedbypensionswillbediminishing,withtheimplicationthatGovernmentsinthefuturewon’treceivethenecessaryincometaxrevenuetosupportthegrowingnumberofpensioners.Thiswasrepeatedinthe15thIntergenerationalReport(CommonwealthofAustralia2015).Thisreportanditsunderlyingassumptionsaboutpopulationageingand theassociated fiscal impactshavebeenexamined indetailbydemographers, andfoundtobeseriouslymisleading(BirrellandBetts2015).NeitherdoestheProductivityCommissionagreewiththereport’sstatedreasonsformaintaininghighlevelsofNOMintothefuture:


“Importantly, immigrationcannotreadilypreventAustralia transitioningtoanolderpopulationoralleviate theunderlying future fiscalpressuresofanageing population. Immigration is only one tool to increase labour forceparticipation, and importantly one that also has demographic, social andenvironmentalimpacts.Moreover,immigrationdoesnotaddressissueswiththeunderlying long-termpolicy settings that lead tounsustainable ratesofgovernmentexpenditureanddebtasprojectedinthe2015IntergenerationalReport....Theseissuesneedtobebetteraddressedthrougharangeofpoliciesincluding, for example, policies to enhance Australia’s labour forceparticipation amongst olderworkers and to improveproductivity inhealthcare delivery to reduce the future fiscal pressures of population ageing”(ProductivityCommission2016,p.361).

A farmore likelyreasontheFederalGovernment ispersistingwithveryhigh levelsofNOM is to boost GDP in the short term, following thewinding downof the resourcesboom.Itisdoingthisbystimulatingresidentialconstructionalongtheeasternseaboardinresponsetohousingdemandprimarilyfrommigrants;andbyfundinginfrastructureprojects.TheissuefortheGovernmentthenbecomeshowtobestdistributethemassivesupplyofmigrant laboursoas tominimise thepotential forpoliticaldamage to itself. Itdoesthis by ensuring the key constituencies of the major political parties are the leastadversely affected. For the Coalition parties, major constituencies include businesses(smallandlarge),propertydevelopersandagents,andfarmers.FortheLaborParty,themajor constituencies are skilled trades people, and semi-skilled and low-skilledworkers,manyofwhomareunionmembers.OneMajorGroup(Appendix1)thatisnotclearlydevotedtooneorotherofthemajorpartiesisProfessionals,mostofwhomarenotunionised.Professionals (as opposed to tradespeople) dominate Australia’s permanent andtemporaryskilledmigrationprograms.FourMinorGroups(ABS2103a),accountingfor38occupations,aresignificantlyover-represented(Birrelletal.2016).Theseare:221Accountants,AuditorsandCompanySecretaries233EngineeringProfessionals261BusinessandSystemsAnalysts,andProgrammers263ICTNetworkandSupportProfessionalsIn2015-16,thesefourMinorGroupsaccountedforalmost38%ofthepermanentskilledmigrationprogram,and22%of the subclass457visaprogram.Theseprofessionsarelargelynon-unionised,andareeasytargetsfortheGovernmenttooversupply.Incontrast,theGovernmentcarefullyavoidsconfrontationwithunionisedlabour,whichhas the resources to monitor immigration developments and to fight back wherenecessarytopreventoversupplyofanyunionisedoccupations.Thiscanbeclearlyseenfrom the immigration data: tradespeople accounted for only 10% of the permanentskilledmigration program in 2015-16. Only 27%of these (or 2.7%of the permanentskilled migration total) were construction tradespeople, despite the significant


construction boom and infrastructure expenditure currently underway in Australia(Birrelletal.2016).ThisisacasewheretheGovernmenthasnotdonewhatisfairandreasonableforICT,engineeringandaccountingprofessionals; rather, ithasdonewhat it thinks it cangetawaywith.The impacts of introducing a huge supply of skilled migrant labour into a relativelysubduedeconomyhaveneverbeenassessedbytheGovernment.Theoversupplyoftheengineering labourmarkethasbeenpursueddeliberatelyby theFederalGovernment,butthefinancialandsocialcoststhathaveaccruedtounemployed,underemployedanddisplaced engineers, have been ignored. This is consistent with the prevailingGovernmentphilosophythatitisacceptableforAustralianstobecomecollateraldamagein the service of the interests of powerful lobby groups and unevaluated politicalagendas.17. Solutions 17.1 Establishing a sustainable engineering immigration program Tostoptheongoing,damagingoversupplyoftheengineeringlabourmarket,theFederalGovernment needs to create conditionswhere all engineers – Australian citizens andexistingAustralianpermanentresidents–tryingtoenterorre-entertheprofessioncanhave a reasonable likelihood of doing so. As part of the process of establishing asustainable engineering immigration program, all engineering immigration needs tocease foradefinedperiod,before recommencingat levelsdictatedbygenuinemarketneedforsupplementationoftheAustralianengineeringworkforce.Thefollowingactionsmustbetakenimmediately:1. Remove all the engineering occupations in the ANZSCO Minor Group ‘233Engineering Professionals’ (Appendix 1) from the MLTSSL. Unit Groups 2331,2333, 2334, 2335 and 2336 should be removed from the MLTSSL for the nextthree years given their stateof oversupply.UnitGroups ‘2332Civil EngineeringProfessionals’ and ‘2339 Other Engineering Professionals’ should be removedfrom theMLTSSL foronly twoyears,as theextentofoversupply is less in theseUnitGroups.RefertoFigure6fortheaffectedvisas.Thiswillprevent the followinggroups fromgainingaccess to theSkilled Independentvisa(subclass189)duringthattime:

- International engineering students who have graduated from Australianuniversities

- OverseasengineersinAustraliaontemporaryworkvisas- Overseasengineersmakingoffshoreapplications.

It will also prevent international engineering students who have graduated fromAustralian universities from accessing the Temporary Graduate visa (subclass 485)(GraduateWorkStream).


2. Remove all the engineering occupations in the ANZSCO Minor Group ‘233EngineeringProfessionals’(Appendix1)fromtheSTSOL.UnitGroups2331,2333,2334,2335and2336shouldberemovedfromtheSTSOLforthenextthreeyearsgiventheirstateofoversupply.UnitGroups‘2332CivilEngineeringProfessionals’and ‘2339Other Engineering Professionals’ should be removed from the STSOLfor one year, as the extent of oversupply is less in these Unit Groups. Refer toFigure7fortheaffectedvisas.Thiswillpreventthefollowingemployer-nominatedgroupsfromgainingaccesstotheTemporaryWork(Skilled)visa(subclass457)duringthattime:

- International engineering students who have graduated from Australianuniversities

- Overseas engineers in Australia on other temporary visas such as a workingholidayvisa

- Overseasengineersmakingoffshoreapplications.Itwillalsopreventemployer-nominatedmigrantengineers fromgainingaccess to theEmployer Nomination Scheme (subclass 186) permanent visa, including those inAustraliaonsubclass457visaswhowishtousethisasaroutetopermanentresidency.ItwillstopStateandTerritoryGovernmentsfrombringinginmigrantengineersviatheSkilledNominated visa (subclass 190). At present, the governments of theACT,NSW,NorthernTerritory,Queensland,Tasmania,VictoriaandWesternAustraliahaveatleastsome engineering occupations listed on their own skilled occupations lists (ACTGovernment2016;NSWGovernment2016;NorthernTerritoryGovernment2017;Stateof Queensland 2016; Tasmanian Government 2016; Victoria State Government 2017;GovernmentofWesternAustralia2016).Thesubclass190visaisonlyaminorsourceofpermanentengineeringmigrants,giventhe ease with which the subclass 189 visa can be obtained. The former visa wasrecommendedtobescrappedbyareviewof theskilledmigrationandtemporaryvisaprogramin2014,buttheFederalGovernmenthastodatetakennoaction(DIBP2014).Intheabsenceofaccesstothesubclass457visa,ifitprovesnecessarytobringasmallnumber of overseas engineers with specialised skills into the country, the existingsubclass 476 visa can be easily recast by regulation to be a short term visa for thispurpose.For this towork, thevisamustnotbe tied to theMLTSSLorSTSOL; itmustrequiregenuinemarkettestingtoensuresuitableAustralianengineerscannotbefound;and it must be capped at a level of 100 issued visas. This visa would need to bemonitored closely by DIBP to ensure that engineers with specialised skills andexperiencearetheonlyonesadmitted.


3. Engineering occupations in the ANZSCO Minor Group ‘233 EngineeringProfessionals’(Appendix1)mustnolongerbeabletoaccessvisasindependentoftheMLTSSLandSTSOLforthenextthreeyears.RefertoFigure8fortheaffectedvisas.ThiswilleliminateaccessbyengineeringgraduatestotheSkilled–RecognisedGraduatevisa (subclass 476). It will also prevent access to the Skilled Regional visa (subclass887).Boththesevisaswererecommendedtobescrappedin2014(DIBP2014).Importantly, the access of international students to the Temporary Graduate visa(subclass 485) (Post-Study Work Stream) must also cease. A significantly higherpercentage(46.6%)ofinternationalstudentscompleteMaster’sdegreesandPhDsthando domestic students (19.5%)(DE&T 2016f). Therefore, this visa of up to four years’durationcouldpotentiallyremainamajorpathwayforinternationalstudentstoaccessthe general engineering labour market. Entry level engineering jobs do not requirepostgraduatedegrees.There is nonetheless a strong case for international students who have completedMaster’sbyresearchorPhDdegreestobeabletoentertheworkforceinresearchjobsrelatedtotheirfieldofpostgraduatestudy.Inthiscircumstance,theyareunlikelytobecompetingwithdomesticgraduates.If theRegionalSponsoredMigrationSchemevisa (subclass187) is to remain inplace,theridiculouslybroaddefinitionof‘regional’,asdefinedbyDIBP(DIBP2017o)mustbemodifiedtoexcludeallStateandTerritorycapitals.4.ReduceNOMbyequivalentamountamount.When the engineering occupations considered in this report are removed from theMLTSSL and STSOL, and there are no more engineering admissions via visasindependent of theMLTSSL and STSOL, therewill be at least 8,000 aspiringmigrantengineerseachyearwhodonotreceivevisastheywouldotherwisehavebeengranted.When partners and children of these engineers are accounted for, there could be asmany as 12,000-14,000 people impacted. Some of these people are already in thecountry on temporary visas of one sort or another. In any event, the FederalGovernment’s targets for annual NOM must be reduced by an equivalent number ofpeopletoaccountforengineersandtheir familieswhocanno longerobtainvisasthatcontribute to NOM. If no reduction is made, other occupations will then be at anincreasedriskofbecomingoversupplied.17.2 Implementing an immigration program that is transparent to the Australian public Much information about the Australian immigration program is hidden from publicview. The Federal Government has posted detailed data about the subclass 457 visaprogramontheDIBPwebsite (DIBP2017a,2017p).Other informationwhichmustbemadepubliclyavailableimmediatelyis:

1. Data about grants of permanent visas, with the same level of detail as thatprovidedfor457visas.


2. Dataaboutgrantsof temporaryvisas suchas subclass485and476visas,withthesamelevelofdetailasthatprovidedfor457visas.

3. AnannuallistofthenumberofrecentinternationalengineeringgraduatesfromAustralianuniversitieswhoaregrantedworkingvisas,listedbyvisatype.

4. Occupational unemployment data at the ANZSCO three digit level, eg. ‘233EngineeringProfessionals’.

5. An annual list of occupations that have been recommended by the DE&T forremovalfromtheMLTSSL.

6. Nominalbasesalarydataformigrantengineerswhohavebeengranted457visas(given the very low salaries identified by Birrell et al. (2016) for ICTProfessionalswhohavebeengranted457visas).

17.3 Implementing an immigration program that considers the Australian public as stakeholdersToomuchof theskilled immigrationprogram iscontrolledbybusinessandmigrationinterests,withlittleornorepresentationforAustralianemployees.Australiahasnearlytenmillion employees, constituting 82% of the workforce (ABS 2016c). TheMACSM,advisingtheMinisterforImmigrationandBorderProtection,musthaveatleast50%ofits membership made up of people who are not representing industry, employer,migration or university interests, and who can act in the interests of Australianemployees to ensure individual occupations are not oversupplied through excessiveimmigration.17.4 Implementing a skilled immigration program that is based on rational principlesAs explained in Section 10.1, the currentMLTSSL is supposed to be based on labourmarketconditionsinfive-to-tenyear’stime.Projectionsmadenowatthistimescaleforindividualoccupationsare fancifulguessesofwhatmightbe.TheMLTSSLneedstobebasedonprojectedmarketneedsone-to-twoyears intothefuture,whichcanbemoreaccurately predicted. At this shorter timescale, decisionsmade in theMLTSSL reviewcanproperlyaccountforthecurrentstateofthelabourmarketforeachoccupation.Furthermore, because of its expertise in understanding and predicting labourmarketrequirements,DoEshouldpreparetheMLTSSLandSTSOLlistingswithinputfromtheDE&T.TheDIBPmustnotbeallowed to changeanyof theMLTSSLorSTSOL listings.DIBPhasnoexpertiseindeterminingthestateofthelabourmarketforoccupations.Inthe author’s opinion, DIBP has kept engineering and some other occupations on theMLTSSLandSTSOLyearafteryear forcynicalpoliticalpurposes. Intheprocess, ithascausedharmtomanyAustraliansandnewmigrants.


18. Conclusions TheAustralianengineeringlabourmarkethasbeeninastateof increasingoversupplyfor nearly four years. This has had a negative impact on those many thousands ofengineerswhoare,andhavebeen,unemployed,underemployedanddisplacedfromtheprofession.This includesAustralianprofessionalengineersandengineeringgraduates,andnewmigrantengineers.TheFederalGovernmenthasdeliberatelyoversupplied theengineering labourmarketbymaintainingengineering immigrationatorclosetoresourceboomlevels, followingthecollapseinthenumberofmonthlyjobvacancieswhicheventuallyfelltojust25%oftheprevioushighsexperiencedinearly2012.TheGovernmenthasdonethistosatisfythedemandsofvestedinterestsinthebusiness,migrationanduniversitysectors;andtohelpbolstershorttermGDP.TheFederalGovernmenthasneverevaluatedtheimpactofitsapproachontheeconomyorontheengineeringlabourforce.Thesolutiontothisdisastroussituationistohaltallengineeringimmigrationforuptothree years to allow Australian unemployed and displaced engineers to have areasonable prospect of returning to their profession, and to allow underemployedengineerstoobtainasuitablelevelofwork.ThisistheonlyfairmeansofdealingwiththeoversupplythattheGovernmenthascreated.The engineering profession inAustralia is currently at the lowest point in its history.With few job opportunities in all but one engineering discipline, combined with thegreatestlabouroversupplyeverexperiencedintheprofession,thousandsofAustralianengineersarefacingpoorworkprospectsnowandintothefuture.Inmaintaininghighlevelsofengineeringimmigration,theFederalGovernmenthasnotsoughttoprotectthevalue ofAustralian citizenship or the integrity of the immigrationprogram. Instead ithasactedtoreinforcetheprivilegeofthevestedinterestsinthe‘immigrationclub’,andto further its own misguided goals. The policies, practices and attitudes that havecontributedtothisdisasterwillnotgounchallenged.


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DE&T,2015a,FlaggedOccupationsontheSOLfor2015-2016.Nolongeravailableonline.SeeIscah2015.DE&T,2015b,2015-16SOLOccupationSummarySheets-CivilEngineeringProfessionals.(Seethenoteaboutunemploymentwhichispresentinthesummarysheetforeachoccupationreviewed).Availableat:https://docs.education.gov.au/documents/2015-16-sol-occupation-summary-sheets-civil-engineering-professionalsDE&T,2015c,SkillsandTraining.(Seethenoteabouttheproportionofworkersaged55+whichispresentinthesummarysheetforeachoccupationreviewed).Availableat:https://docs.education.gov.au/category/stream-3DE&T,2016a,ReviewoftheSkilledOccupationsList(SOL).Availableat:https://www.education.gov.au/skilled-occupations-list-solDE&T,2016b,FlaggedOccupationsontheSOLfor2016-17.Availableat:https://www.education.gov.au/flagged-occupations-sol-2016-17DE&T,2016c,AssessingAuthorities.Availableat:http://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Work/Work/Skills-assessment-and-assessing-authorities/assessing-authoritiesDE&T,2016d,SkilledOccupationsListMethodology.Availableat:https://www.education.gov.au/skilled-occupations-list-methodologyDE&T,2016e,OnlineSubmissionForm:Introduction.Availableat:https://www.education.gov.au/skilled-occupations-list-sol(Hyperlinkto‘onlinesubmissionform’isnolongeravailable)DE&T,2016f,2015AwardCourseCompletions.SeeTables3,7and17intheExcelfile.Availableat:https://docs.education.gov.au/documents/2015-award-course-completionsDengateC,2016a,‘Experienced,KeenandOutofWork:SkilledMigrationinAustralia’,TheHuffingtonPost,20August2016.Availableat:http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/08/20/experienced-keen-and-out-of-work-skilled-migration-in-australi/Homepage:http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/DengateC,2016b,‘‘CruelHoax’asMigrantEngineersareToldThereWillbeJobs’,TheHuffingtonPost,29August2016.Availableat:http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/08/25/cruel-hoax-as-migrant-engineers-are-told-there-will-be-jobs/Homepage:http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/


DepartmentofFinance,2015,MinisterialAdvisoryCouncilonSkilledMigration.Availableat:http://www.finance.gov.au/node/112591/DIBP,2014,ProposalPaper:SimplificationoftheSkilledMigrationandTemporaryActivityVisaProgrammes–December2014.Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/ReportsandPublications/Documents/discussion-papers/proposal_paper_dec14.pdfSeealso:https://www.border.gov.au/about/reports-publications/reviews-inquiries/skilled-migration-and-temporary-activity-visa-programmesDIBP,2016,TemporaryWork(Skilled)(subclass457)visa.Bookletavailableat:http://docshare04.docshare.tips/files/31727/317270917.pdfDIBP,2017a,TemporaryWork(Skilled)visa(subclass457)Programme,BP0014TemporaryWork(Skilled)visasgrantedpivottable(Excelfile).Availableat:https://data.gov.au/dataset/visa-temporary-work-skilledDIBP,2017b,SkilledIndependentvisa(subclass189).Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/189-DIBP,2017c,TemporaryGraduatevisa(subclass485).Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/485-DIBP,2017d,SkilledRegional(Provisional)visa(subclass489).Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/489-DIBP,2017e,SkillSelect.See‘Occupationceilings’tab.Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Busi/Empl/skillselectDIBP,2017f,EmployerNominationScheme(subclass186).Availableat:http://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/186-DIBP,2017g,SkilledNominatedvisa(subclass190).Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/190-DIBP,2017h,TemporaryWork(Skilled)visa(subclass457).Availableat:http://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/457-DIBP,2017i,Skilled-RecognisedGraduatevisa(subclass476).Availableat:http://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/476-DIBP,2017k,SkilledMigrationVisaProcessingTimes.Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/about/access-accountability/service-standards/skilled-migration-visa-processing-times


DIBP,2017l,‘Point-BasedSkilledMigration’,underFactSheet–OverviewofSkilledMigrationtoAustralia.Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/about/corporate/information/fact-sheets/24overview-skilledDIBP,2017m,RegionalSponsoredMigrationSchemevisa(subclass187).Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/187-DIBP,2017n,SkilledRegionalvisa(subclass887).Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/887-DIBP,2017o,GeneralSkilledMigration–RegionalAustralia/LowPopulationGrowthMetropolitanAreas.Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Work/Work/Allocation-dates-for-General-Skilled-Migration-applications/regional-growthDIBP,2017p,TemporaryWork(Skilled)visa(subclass457)Programme,BP0014TemporaryWork(Skilled)visaholderspivottable(Excelfile).Availableat:https://data.gov.au/dataset/visa-temporary-work-skilledDIBP,2017q,WhatisMigrationFraud?.Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Lega/Lega/Form/Immi-FAQs/what-is-migration-fraudDIBP,2017r,FactSheetOne:ReformstoAustralia’sTemporaryEmployerSponsoredSkilledMigrationProgramme–AbolitionandReplacementofthe457Visa.Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/WorkinginAustralia/Documents/abolition-replacement-457.pdfDIBP,2017s,AbolitionandReplacementofthe457Visa–GovernmentReformstoEmployerSponsoredSkilledMigrationVisas.Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Work/457-abolition-replacementDoddT,2016,‘EducationRevenueSoarstoBecomeAustralia’s$20BillionExport’,AustralianFinancialRevue,3February2016.Availableat:http://www.afr.com/news/policy/education/education-revenue-soars-to-become-australias-20-billion-export-20160203-gmke3kHomepage:http://www.afr.com/DoE,2013,SurveyofEmployers’RecruitmentExperiences:DataQualityStatement.Availableat:https://docs.employment.gov.au/node/5664DoE,2016a,LabourMarketResearch–EngineeringProfessions.Australia2015-16.Availableat:https://docs.employment.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/ausengineeringprofessions_0.pdf


DoE,2016b,‘OccupationProjections’,underEmploymentProjections–2016EmploymentProjections.Availableat:http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/EmploymentProjectionsDoE,2016c,OccupationalSkillShortagesInformation.Seelinksforeachoccupation.Availableat:https://www.employment.gov.au/occupational-skill-shortages-informationDoE,2016d,RecruitmentMethodsUsedbyEmployers–Infographic.Availableat:http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/GainInsights/EmployersRecruitmentInsightsDoE,2016e,JobOutlook:AnAustralianGovernmentInitiative.Availableat:http://joboutlook.gov.au/DoE,2016f,ChemicalandMaterialsEngineers.SeeStatisticstab.Availableat:http://joboutlook.gov.au/occupation.aspx?code=2331&search=alpha&Tab=stats&graph=ELDoE,2016g,ElectronicsEngineers.SeeStatisticstab.Availableat:http://joboutlook.gov.au/occupation.aspx?search=alpha&tab=stats&cluster=&code=2334DoE,2017a,‘IVIData–January2006Onwards’,underVacancyReport–DataFiles.Availableat:http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/VacancyReportDoE,2017b,‘VacancyReport’,underVacancyReport–DataFiles.Availableat:http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/VacancyReportDoE,2017c,‘IVIDetailedOccupationData–March2006Onwards’,underVacancyReport–DataFiles.Availableat:http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/VacancyReportDuttonP,2016,ReviewoftheConsolidatedSkillsOccupationList,MediaReleasefromTheHonPeterDuttonMP,MinisterforImmigrationandBorderProtection,2December2016.Availableat:http://www.minister.border.gov.au/peterdutton/2016/Pages/Review-csol.aspxEMSA,2013,FlaggedOccupations.Availableat:http://emsaus.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Flagged-Occupations.pdfHomepage:http://emsaus.com/EngineersAustralia,2012,TheEngineeringProfession:AStatisticalOverview,NinthEdition,July.Author:AndreKaspura.Availableat:http://search.informit.org/documentSummary;dn=768897800708972;res=IELENG;subject=HighereducationHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/


EngineersAustralia,2013,SupplementarySubmissiontoAWPARelatingtoChemicalEngineersandtheSOL.SubmissiontoAWPASOL2013Review,January2013.OnlineaccesstothisdocumentwasremovedbyEngineersAustraliainearly2017.EngineersAustralia,2014a,TheEngineeringProfession:AStatisticalOverview,EleventhEdition,October.Author:AndreKaspura.Availableat:https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=237891274469170;res=IELENGHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2014b,AnnualReport2013-2014.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/About-Us/Corporate-Governance/Corporate-StructureHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2015a,AnnualReport2014-15.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/About-Us/Corporate-Governance/Corporate-StructureHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2015b,TheStatusofEngineering2015.PolicyNote,30March.OnlineaccesstothisdocumentwasremovedbyEngineersAustraliainearly2017.EngineersAustralia,2015c,TheEngineeringProfession:AStatisticalOverview,TwelfthEdition,November.Author:AndreKaspura.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/Government-And-Policy/StatisticsHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2015d,ImpactofAustralia’sTemporaryWorkVisaPrograms:EngineersAustralia’sSubmissiontotheSenateEducationandEmploymentReferencesCommittee,May2015.SubmissionNo.4.Availableat:http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Education_and_Employment/temporary_work_visa/SubmissionsEngineersAustralia2015e,TheSkilledOccupationListfor2016-17:SupplementaryMaterialRelatingtoEngineeringOccupations,SubmissiontoSOLReviewfor2016-17,October2015.Availableat:https://submissions.education.gov.au/Forms/Archive/2015_16_SOLEngineersAustralia2015f,SkilledMigrationofEngineers,AnUpdate,PolicyNote,October2015.OnlineaccesstothisdocumentwasremovedbyEngineersAustraliainearly2017.EngineersAustralia,2016a,TheStateoftheEngineeringProfession:EngineeringAustralia2016.Availableat:http://newsroom.engineersaustralia.org.au/news/explainer/the-state-of-the-engineering-profession-2016-reportHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/


EngineersAustralia,2016b,SkilledMigrationPositionStatement.Availableat:http://newsroom.engineersaustralia.org.au/news/resources/skilled-migration-position-statementHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2016c,AcceptancesofPlacesinEngineering;Sources,CharacteristicsandChanges,EngineersAustraliaPolicyNote,2June.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/content-files/2016-12/acceptances_of_places_in_engineering.pdfHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2016d,Statistics.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/Government-And-Policy/StatisticsHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2016e,The2017-18SOL:AdditionalCommentsinSupportofRetainingEngineeringOccupations,SubmissiontoSOLReviewfor2017-18,November2016.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/SkilledOccupationList,reviewfor2017-18.pdfEngineersAustralia,2016f,2015-16AnnualReport.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/About-Us/Corporate-Governance/Corporate-StructureHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2016g,AnnualConsolidatedFinancialReportfortheFinancialYearEnded30June2016.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/About-Us/Corporate-Governance/Corporate-StructureHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2016h,MembershipFees.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/Membership/Membership-FeesHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2016i,EngineeringMarketAnalysis.Availableat:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/Government-And-Policy/StatisticsHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/EngineersAustralia,2017,TheEngineeringProfession:AStatisticalOverview,ThirteenthEdition,February.Author:AndreKaspura.Availableat:http://newsroom.engineersaustralia.org.au/news/statistics-data/the-engineering-profession-a-statistical-overviewHomepage:https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/


GaleA,2014,Submission:IndependentReviewofIntegrityintheSubclass457Programme,SubmissiononbehalfoftheOfficeoftheCommissionerforEqualOpportunity,GovernmentofSouthAustralia.Availableat:https://www.border.gov.au/about/reports-publications/reviews-inquiries/independent-review-integrity-457-programme-submissions-receivedGCA,2011,‘2010AGSMethodology’underGraduateDestinations.Availableat:http://www.graduatecareers.com.au/research/researchreports/graduatedestinations/Homepage:http://www.graduatecareers.com.au/GCA,2015,‘GraduateDestinationsReport2014(SupplementaryTables&Figures)’underGraduateDestinations.Availableat:http://www.graduatecareers.com.au/research/researchreports/graduatedestinations/Homepage:http://www.graduatecareers.com.au/GCA,2016,‘GraduateDestinationsReport2015(SupplementaryTables&Figures)’underGraduateDestinations.Availableat:http://www.graduatecareers.com.au/research/researchreports/graduatedestinations/Homepage:http://www.graduatecareers.com.au/GovernmentofWesternAustralia,2016,WesternAustralianSkilledMigrationOccupationList(WASMOL).Availableat:http://www.migration.wa.gov.au/services/skilled-migration-wa/occupations-in-demandHoweJ,2015,TheImpactoftheChina-AustraliaFreeTradeAgreementonAustralianJobOpportunities,WagesandConditions,TheUniversityofAdelaide,September.Availableathttp://apo.org.au/Searchonauthor’sname.Iscah,2013,IscahNews:FlaggedOccupationsfor2013,August2nd.Availableat:http://www.iscah.com/flagged-occupations-for-2013/Homepage:http://www.iscah.com/Iscah,2015,IscahNews:2016FlaggedOccupations,July27th.Availableat:http://www.iscah.com/2016-flagged-occupations/Homepage:http://www.iscah.com/KarunaratneND,2015,‘TheProductivityParadoxandtheAustralianMiningBoomandBust’,ResearchinWorldEconomy,vol.6,no.1,pp.1-19.KnottM,2016,‘UniversitiesAustraliaUrgesTurnbullGovernmenttoAbandon$3.2Billion‘Zombie’Cuts’,TheSydneyMorningHerald,3August.Availableat:http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/universities-australia-urges-turnbull-government-to-abandon-32-billion-zombie-cuts-20160802-gqj5ov.htmlHomepage:http://www.smh.com.au/


MattaT,2015,Submissiontothe‘MigrantIntakeintoAustraliaPublicInquiry’,SubmissionNo.17.Availableat:http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/migrant-intake/submissions-initialMigrationCouncilAustralia,2015,TheEconomicImpactofMigration.Availableat:http://migrationcouncil.org.au/policy/-the-economic-impact-of-migration-2015Homepage:http://migrationcouncil.org.au/NoBorders,2014,IsyourOccupationinDanger-SOLListchangesfor2014.Availableat:http://www.noborders-group.com/news/sol-list-changes-2014Homepage:http://www.noborders-group.com/NorthernTerritoryGovernment,2017,NTMigrationOccupationList.Availableat:http://www.australiasnorthernterritory.com.au/working/bsm/nt-nominated-general/pages/sol.aspxNortonA,2016,MappingAustralianHigherEducation2016,GrattanInstituteReportNo.2016-11,August.Availableat:https://grattan.edu.au/report/mapping-australian-higher-education-2016/Homepage:https://grattan.edu.au/NSWGovernment,2016,SkilledNominatedMigration(190).Availableat:http://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/live-and-work-in-nsw/visas-and-immigration/skilled-nominated-migration-190ParliamentofAustralia,2016,Australia’sTradeinFigures.Availableat:http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/AustraliaTradePattyA,2017a,‘EngineersImportedfromOverseasasAustraliansStruggletoFindJobs’,TheSydneyMorningHerald,1January2017.Availableat:http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/engineers-imported-from-overseas-as-australians-struggle-to-find-jobs-20161220-gtes3qHomepage:http://www.smh.com.au/PattyA,2017b,‘Arethe457VisaReformsanIllusionAct?’,TheSydneyMorningHerald,22April2017.Availableat:http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/are-the-457-visa-reforms-an-illusion-act-20170420-gvokqk.htmlHomepage:http://www.smh.com.au/ProductivityCommission,2016,MigrantIntakeintoAustralia,ProductivityCommissionInquiryReport,No.77,13April.Availableat:http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/migrant-intake/report


ProfessionalsAustralia,2016a,EngineersChallengeMinisteroverSkilledOccupationListing,MediaRelease,25August2016.Availableat:http://www.professionalsaustralia.org.au/blog/engineers-challenge-minister-skilled-occupation-listing/Homepage:http://www.professionalsaustralia.org.au/ProfessionalsAustralia,2016b,InvestinginourEngineers.Availableat:http://www.professionalengineersaction.org.au/eng_skilled_migrationHomepage:http://www.professionalsaustralia.org.au/PwC,2016,STEM.Availableat:http://www.pwc.com.au/stem.htmlHomepage:http://www.pwc.com.au/SloanJ,2017,‘ImmigrationRateKeyFactorinHousingAffordability’,TheAustralian,4March2017.StateofQueensland,2016,SkilledOccupationLists.Availableat:http://migration.qld.gov.au/skilled-occupation-lists/TasmanianGovernment,2016,SkilledMigrants.Availableat:https://www.migration.tas.gov.au/skilled_migrantsTheSenateEducationandEmploymentReferencesCommittee,2016,ANationalDisgrace:TheExploitationofTemporaryWorkVisaHolders.Availableat:http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Education_and_Employment/temporary_work_visa/ReportToscanoN,2015,‘TradeUnionMembershipHitsRecordLow’,TheSydneyMorningHerald,27October2015.Availableat:http://www.smh.com.au/national/trade-union-membership-hits-record-low-20151027-gkjlpu.htmlHomepage:http://www.smh.com.au/UnitedNationsOfficeonDrugsandCrime,2017,HumanTrafficking.Availableat:https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/human-trafficking/what-is-human-trafficking.htmlVictoriaStateGovernment,2017,VisaNominationOccupationListforVictoria.Availableat:http://www.liveinvictoria.vic.gov.au/visas-and-immigrating/visa-nomination-occupation-lists/visa-nomination-occupation-list-for-victoria


Appendix 1

Engineering Occupations Included in this Report ANZSCOClassification(ABS2013a):MajorGroup: 2 ProfessionalsSub-MajorGroup: 23 Design,Engineering,ScienceandTransportProfessionalsMinorGroup: 233 EngineeringProfessionals

UnitGroup Occupation 2331 Chemicaland

MaterialsEngineers

233111 Chemicalengineer 233112 Materialsengineer2332 CivilEngineering

Professionals

233211 Civilengineer 233212 Geotechnicalengineer 233213 Quantitysurveyor 233214 Structuralengineer 233215 Transportengineer2333 ElectricalEngineers 233311 Electricalengineer2334 ElectronicsEngineers 233411 Electronicsengineer2335 Industrial,Mechanical


233511 Industrialengineer 233512 Mechanicalengineer 233513 Productionorplant

engineer

2336 MiningEngineers 233611 Miningengineer(excluding

petroleum) 233612 Petroleumengineer2339 OtherEngineering

Professionals

233911 Aeronauticalengineer 233912 Agriculturalengineer 233913 Biomedicalengineer 233914 Engineeringtechnologist 233915 Environmentalengineer 233916 Navalarchitect 233999 Engineeringprofessionals

nec(notelsewhereclassified)


Appendix 2

2331 Chemical and Material Engineers ThisUnitGroupincludestheoccupations:233111Chemicalengineer233112Materialsengineer.From2006-07until2015-16, for thisUnitGroupMaterialsengineershaveconstitutedalmost14%ofpermanentskilledmigration,and20%of457visas(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a),givinganoverallcontributionofjustover15%.

FigureA2-1NumberofinternetvacanciesforChemicalandMaterialsEngineerstoDecember2016(actualmonthlydata,notindexed)(DoE2017c)

0102030405060708090100110

Jul-06

Jan-07

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Jul-16Num

bero

fVacan

cies

InternetVacanciesforChemicalandMaterialsEngineers

InDecember2016,thenumberofmonthlyvacancieswasjust20%ofthepeakrecordedinMay2011(FigureA2-1). In2012AWPA–thenresponsible forcompilingtheSOL–received conflicting advice about whether the occupation ‘Chemical engineer’ shouldremain on the SOL. AWPA wrote to Engineers Australia to invite them to submitadditionalcommentsaboutthisoccupation.In2013EngineersAustraliarespondedandrecommended ‘Chemical engineer’ should remain on the SOL (Engineers Australia2013).TheoccupationbecameflaggedontheSOLfor2013-14.However,in2013-14theannualnumberofmigrantengineers(405)was63%abovetheannualnumberof jobvacancies(248).Thisisanastonishingstatistic,consideringthatmostvacanciesarefilledbyengineerswhoalreadyhaveajobintheprofession(Section3.2). This strongly suggests that the occupations of Chemical engineer and maybe


Materialsengineerwereinsignificantoversupplyduring2013-14,andperhapsinprioryears.ForUnitGroup2331,iftheratioofmigrantstovacanciesisindexedat100in2012-13,the index value in 2015-16 is 323 (Figure A2-2). If the ratio is indexed at 100 in2013-14,theratioin2015-16is159.ThismeansthatfromwhenevertheoccupationsinthisUnitGroupfirstarrivedatastateofnoshortage,theratioofmigrantengineerstovacancieshadincreasedverysignificantlyby2015-16.FigureA2-2Chemical&MaterialsEngineers:totalengineeringmigrationandvacancies,indexed(2012-13=100)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a;DoE2017a)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

Inde

x

Chemical&MaterialsEngineersTotalSkilledMigraConIndex VacancyIndex

Figure A2-3 plots the proportion of domestic chemical engineering bachelor degreegraduates in full-time employment as a percentage of those available for full-timeemployment(alsoseeSection11).Atthetimeofthe2015GCAsurvey,thispercentagewas63%;andonly51%wereinajobbroadlyrelevanttotheirfieldofstudy(Table12andFigureA2-4).Theworryingdeclineinfull-timeemploymentofdomesticgraduatesof 18% between 2012 and 2015 is a result of market conditions combined with theimmensecompetitionforjobsthathasresultedfromtheFederalGovernmentallowinginternationalgraduateseasyaccesstotheAustraliangraduatejobmarket.Theinabilityofsomanydomesticgraduatestofindanyfull-timework(andthisisnotjustworkrelatedtotheir fieldofstudy) five-to-sixmonthsaftercompletingtheir finalexams demonstrates the fallacy of the often-repeated proposition that engineeringgraduates have skills which are highly valued in other areas of the general skilledworkforce. Because of the collapse in the oil price which occurred in late 2014,subsequentdatapointsfor2016and2017(ie.forstudentscompletingtheirfinalexams


in 2015 and 2016) may well show further reductions in the percentage of domesticchemicalengineeringgraduatesinfull-timework.FigureA2-3Domesticchemicalengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTable5inGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’)

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

%ofG

radu

atesinFull-T

imeEm

ploymen

t

ChemicalEngineeringGraduatesinFull-TimeEmployment

FigureA2-4Domesticchemicalengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentinanengineering,scientific,technicalormanagementroleasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTables5and23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’.2012datadonotincludemanagementroles)

30.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.080.085.090.095.0100.0

2012

2013

2014

2015

Percen

t

ChemicalEngineeringBachelorGraduatesinFull-TimeEmploymentBroadlyRelatedtotheirFieldofStudy,asaPercent

ofthoseAvailableforFull-TimeEmployment


Appendix 3

2332 Civil Engineering Professionals ThisUnitGroupincludestheoccupations:233211Civilengineer233212Geotechnicalengineer233213Quantitysurveyor233214Structuralengineer233215Transportengineer.In January 2015, for Civil Engineering Professionals the number of internet vacancieswasjust25%ofthatrecordedinMay2011.ByDecember2016,thenumberofinternetvacancies had risen to 42% of that recorded in May 2011 (Figure A3-1). CivilEngineeringProfessionalsistheonlyUnitGrouptohaveshownanysustainedincreaseininternetvacanciessince2012-13.FigureA3-1NumberofinternetvacanciesforCivilEngineeringProfessionalstoDecember2016(actualmonthlydata,notindexed)(DoE2017c)

0

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fVacan

cies

InternetVacanciesforCivilEngineeringProfessionals

ForUnitGroup2332,iftheratioofmigrantstovacanciesisindexedat100in2012-13,the indexvaluein2015-16is135. If theratio is indexedat100in2011-12whenUnitGroup2332wasfirstflaggedontheSOL,theratioin2015-16is143.ItcanbeseenfromFigureA3-2thattheseratioshavenarrowedin2015-16,indicatingthattheUnitGroupis slowly moving back to a position where the annual intake of new migrants pervacancy is similar to thatwhen no shortageswere first observed. As per Table 1, by


early 2016 recruitment difficulty was being experienced for senior managers andindividuals with specialised experience, but not for general recruitment of this UnitGroup.FigureA3-2CivilEngineeringProfessionals:totalengineeringmigrationandvacancies,indexed(2012-13=100)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a;DoE2017a)

0.0

20.0

40.0

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100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

2011-2012

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Inde

x

CivilEngineeringProfessionalsTotalSkilledMigraBonIndex VacancyIndex

As shown in Figure A3-3, the 2015 GCA survey revealed that of those domestic civilengineering bachelor graduates available for full-timework, only 78% could find anyfull-timework;andonly68%couldfindfull-timeworkinajobbroadlyrelevanttotheirfieldofstudy(Table12andFigureA3-4).Full-timeemploymentfordomesticgraduatesinthedisciplinedeclinedby14%between2012and2015.


FigureA3-3Domesticcivilengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTable5inGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’)

50.0

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110.0

2005

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CivilEngineeringGraduatesinFull-TimeEmployment

FigureA3-4Domesticcivilengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentinanengineering,scientific,technicalormanagementroleasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTables5and23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’.2012datadonotincludemanagementroles)

30.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.080.085.090.095.0100.0

2012

2013

2014

2015

Percen

t

CivilEngineeringBachelorGraduatesinFull-TimeEmploymentBroadlyRelatedtotheirFieldofStudy,asaPercent



Appendix 4

2333 Electrical Engineers ThisUnitGroupincludestheoccupation:233311Electricalengineer.ForElectricalEngineers,inDecember2016thenumberofinternetvacancieswas24%of that recorded in July2012 (FigureA4-1).ThisUnitGrouphasnot experiencedanysustainedincreaseinvacancynumberssincethecollapseoftheemploymentmarketin2012-13.FigureA4-1NumberofinternetvacanciesforElectricalEngineerstoDecember2016(actualmonthlydata,notindexed)(DoE2017c)

0

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InternetVacanciesforElectricalEngineers

ForUnitGroup2333,iftheratioofmigrantstovacanciesisindexedat100in2012-13,theindexvaluein2015-16is314(FigureA4-2).This isaverylargeincrease,andit isnotsurprisingthattheDoEhasindicatedtherehasbeennoshortageinthisoccupationafter2011-12(Table1).What is surprising, and very concerning, is that the Unit Group ‘2333 ElectricalEngineers’ has never been flagged on the SOL from 2011-12 onwards (Table 5). Thereason is unknown, but is potentiallydue to the influenceof thirdparties on the SOLreviewprocess.


FigureA4-2ElectricalEngineers:totalengineeringmigrationandvacancies,indexed(2012-13=100)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a;DoE2017a)

0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

Inde

x

ElectricalEngineersTotalSkilledMigra?onIndex VacancyIndex

AsshowninFigureA4-3,the2015GCAsurveyrevealedthatofthosedomesticelectricalengineering bachelor graduates available for full-timework, only 78% could find anyfull-timework;andonly70%couldfindfull-timeworkinajobbroadlyrelevanttotheirfieldofstudy(Table12andFigureA4-4).Full-timeemploymentfordomesticgraduatesinthedisciplinedeclinedby11%between2012and2015.

FigureA4-3Domesticelectricalengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTable5inGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’)

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ElectricalEngineeringGraduatesinFull-TimeEmployment


FigureA4-4Domesticelectricalengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentinanengineering,scientific,technicalormanagementroleasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTables5and23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’.2012datadonotincludemanagementroles)

30.0

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40.0

45.0

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55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

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95.0

100.0

2012

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Percen

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ElectricalEngineeringBachelorGraduatesinFull-TimeEmploymentBroadlyRelatedtotheirFieldofStudy,asaPercent



Appendix 5

2334 Electronics Engineers ThisUnitGroupincludestheoccupation:233411Electronicsengineer.ForElectronicsEngineers,inDecember2016thenumberofinternetvacancieswas23%of thepeakrecorded in July2011(FigureA5-1).ThisUnitGrouphasnotexperiencedanysustainedincreaseinvacancynumberssincethecollapseoftheemploymentmarketin2012-13.FigureA5-1NumberofinternetvacanciesforElectronicsEngineerstoDecember2016(actualmonthlydata,notindexed)(DoE2017c).

0

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160

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InternetVacanciesforElectronicsEngineers

ForUnitGroup2334,iftheratioofmigrantstovacanciesisindexedat100in2012-13,theindexvaluein2015-16is326(FigureA5-2).Iftheratioisindexedat100in2011-12–when Unit Group 2334was first flagged on the SOL (Table 5) – the index value in2015-16is300.Theseareverylargeincreases.From2014-15,theactualannualnumberof new migrant Electronic Engineers has exceeded the annual number of vacancies,suggestingthatthelabourmarketissignificantlyoversupplied.As shown in Figure A5-3, the 2015 GCA survey revealed that of those domesticelectronic/computer engineeringbachelor graduates available for full-timework, only79% could find any full-time work; and only 71% could find full-time work in a jobbroadly relevant to their field of study (Table 12 and Figure A5-4). Full-timeemploymentfordomesticgraduatesinthedisciplinedeclinedbyonly3%between2013


and2015,probablybecausethisgraduategroupincludescomputerengineersforwhomdemandhasbeengreater.FigureA5-2ElectronicsEngineers:totalengineeringmigrationandvacancies,indexed(2012-13=100)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a;DoE2017a)

0.0

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140.0

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2011-2012

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ElectronicsEngineersTotalSkilledMigra?onIndex VacancyIndex

FigureA5-3Domesticelectronic/computerengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTable5inGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’)

50.0

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Electronic/ComputerEngineeringGraduatesinFull-TimeEmployment


FigureA5-4Domesticelectronic/computerengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentinanengineering,scientific,technicalormanagementroleasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTables5and23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’.2012datadonotincludemanagementroles)

30.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.080.085.090.095.0100.0

2012

2013

2014

2015

Percen

t

Electronic/ComputerEngineeringBachelorGraduatesinFull-TimeEmploymentBroadlyRelatedtotheirFieldofStudy,

asaPercentofthoseAvailableforFull-TimeEmployment


Appendix 6

2335 Industrial, Mechanical and Production Engineers ThisUnitGroupincludestheoccupations:233511Industrialengineer233512Mechanicalengineer233513Productionorplantengineer.ForIndustrial,MechanicalandProductionEngineers,inDecember2016thenumberofinternetvacancieswas25%of thatrecorded inOctober2011(FigureA6-1).ThisUnitGroup has not experienced any sustained increase in vacancy numbers since thecollapseoftheemploymentmarketin2012-13.FigureA6-1NumberofinternetvacanciesforIndustrial,MechanicalandProductionEngineerstoDecember2016(actualmonthlydata,notindexed)(DoE2017c)

0300600900

120015001800210024002700

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ForUnitGroup2335,iftheratioofmigrantstovacanciesisindexedat100in2012-13,theindexvaluein2015-16is240(FigureA6-2).Iftheratioisindexedat100in2011-12–when Unit Group 2335was first flagged on the SOL (Table 5) – the index value in2015-16is329.Theseareverylargeincreases.As shown in Figure A6-3, the 2015 GCA survey revealed that of those domesticmechanicalengineeringbachelorgraduatesavailableforfull-timework,only72%couldfindanyfull-timework;andonly60%couldfindfull-timeworkinajobbroadlyrelevantto their fieldof study (Table12andFigureA6-4).Full-timeemployment fordomesticgraduates in the discipline declined by 18% between 2012 and 2015, reflecting thelowernumberofopportunitiesandincreasedcompetitionforjobssincethen.


FigureA6-2Industrial,Mechanical andProduction Engineers: total engineeringmigration andvacancies,indexed(2012-13=100)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a;DoE2017a)

0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0

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Industrial,MechanicalandProduc>onEngineersTotalSkilledMigra>onIndex VacancyIndex

FigureA6-3Domesticmechanicalengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTable5inGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’)

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MechanicalEngineeringGraduatesinFull-TimeEmployment


FigureA6-4Domesticmechanicalengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentinanengineering,scientific,technicalormanagementroleasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTables5and23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’.2012datadonotincludemanagementroles.2013dataarenotavailable)

30.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.080.085.090.095.0100.0

2012

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MechanicalEngineeringBachelorGraduatesinFull-TimeEmploymentBroadlyRelatedtotheirFieldofStudy,asaPercent



Appendix 7

2336 Mining Engineers ThisUnitGroupincludestheoccupations:233611Miningengineer(excludingpetroleum)233612Petroleumengineer.ForMiningEngineers,inDecember2016thenumberofinternetvacancieswasjust12%of thepeakrecorded inOctober2011(FigureA7-1).ThisUnitGrouphassuffered themostprecipitouscollapseinjobvacanciesofanyengineeringUnitGroup.FigureA7-1NumberofinternetvacanciesforMiningEngineerstoDecember2016(actualmonthlydata,notindexed)(DoE2017c)

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ForUnitGroup2336,iftheratioofmigrantstovacanciesisindexedat100in2012-13,theindexvaluein2015-16is428(FigureA7-2).Iftheratioisindexedat100in2013-14–when233611‘Miningengineer(excludingpetroleum)’wasstatedbytheDoEtohavenoshortage(Table1)–theindexvaluein2015-16is190.Duetothesuddencollapseinactivity in the mining industry, the time from when there was no shortage in oneoccupationof theUnitGroup,untilbothoccupations in theUnitGroupwere removedfromtheSOLforthe2016-17year,wasshort.AsshowninFigureA7-3,the2015GCAsurveyrevealedthatofthosedomesticminingengineering bachelor graduates available for full-timework, only 76% could find anyfull-timework;andonly64%couldfindfull-timeworkinajobbroadlyrelevanttotheirfieldofstudy(Table12andFigureA7-4).Full-timeemploymentfordomesticgraduatesinthedisciplinedeclinedby20%between2013and2015,reflectingthelowernumberofopportunitiesandincreasedcompetitionforjobssincethen.


FigureA7-2Mining Engineers: total engineering migration and vacancies, indexed(2012-13=100)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a;DoE2017a)

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FigureA7-3Domesticminingengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTable5inGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’)

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MiningEngineeringGraduatesinFull-TimeEmployment


FigureA7-4Domesticminingengineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentinanengineering,scientific,technicalormanagementroleasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTables5and23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’.2012datadonotincludemanagementroles.2013dataarenotavailable)

30.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.080.085.090.095.0100.0

2012

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2015

Percen

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MiningEngineeringBachelorGraduatesinFull-TimeEmploymentBroadlyRelatedtotheirFieldofStudy,asaPercent



Appendix 8

2339 Other Engineering Professionals ThisUnitGroupincludestheoccupations:233911Aeronauticalengineer233912Agriculturalengineer233913Biomedicalengineer233914Engineeringtechnologist233915Environmentalengineer233916Navalarchitect233999Engineeringprofessionalsnec.For Other Engineering Professionals, in December 2016 the number of internetvacancieswas30%ofthatrecordedinAugust2011(FigureA8-1).ThisUnitGrouphasnot experienced any sustained increase in vacancy numbers since the collapse of theemploymentmarketin2012-13.FigureA8-1NumberofinternetvacanciesforOtherEngineeringProfessionalstoDecember2016(actualmonthlydata,notindexed)(DoE2017c)

0100200300400500600700800900

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ForUnitGroup2339,iftheratioofmigrantstovacanciesisindexedat100in2012-13,theindexvaluein2015-16is165(FigureA8-2).Iftheratioisindexedat100in2011-12– when the Unit Group was first flagged on the SOL (Table 5) – the index value in2015-16 is207.ThisUnitGrouphasexperienced lowerratiosofmigrantengineers tovacancies than the other engineering Unit Groups (except for ‘2332 Civil EngineeringProfessionals’),partlyduetoasmallerpercentagedeclineinvacancies.


FigureA8-2OtherEngineeringProfessionals:totalengineeringmigrationandvacancies,indexed(2012-13=100)(EngineersAustralia2017;DIBP2017a;DoE2017a)

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OtherEngineeringProfessionalsTotalSkilledMigraBonIndex VacancyIndex

As shown inFigureA8-3, the2015GCAsurvey revealed thatof thosedomestic ‘otherengineering’ bachelor graduates available for full-timework, only71%could find anyfull-timework;andonly57%couldfindfull-timeworkinajobbroadlyrelevanttotheirfieldofstudy(Table12andFigureA8-4).Full-timeemploymentfordomesticgraduatesdeclinedby17%between2012and2015.

FigureA8-3Domestic‘otherengineering’bachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTable5inGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’)

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OtherEngineeringGraduatesinFull-TimeEmployment


FigureA8-4Domestic‘other’engineeringbachelordegreegraduatesinfull-timeemploymentinanengineering,scientific,technicalormanagementroleasapercentageofthoseavailableforfull-timeemployment(actualdata,notindexed)(GCA2016.SeeTables5and23ainGCA’s‘SupplementaryTables&Figures’.2012datadonotincludemanagementroles.2013dataarenotavailable)

30.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.080.085.090.095.0100.0

2012

2013

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OtherEngineeringBachelorGraduatesinFull-TimeEmploymentBroadlyRelatedtotheirFieldofStudy,asaPercent


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