THE DECREASE OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUND MOTION ESTIMATION BASED ON THE EMPIRICAL CORRECTION MODEL THE...
27
THE DECREASE OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUND THE DECREASE OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUND MOTION ESTIMATION BASED ON THE MOTION ESTIMATION BASED ON THE EMPIRICAL CORRECTION MODEL EMPIRICAL CORRECTION MODEL K. L. Wen 1,2,3) , T. H. Wu 2) , M. W. Huang 2) , S. J. Jhang 2) , C. L. Chang 2) , S. Y. Liu 2) , Y. W. Chang 3) , C. M. Lin 3) , and C. H. Kuo 3) 1) Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan 2) National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan 3) National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, Taiwan The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake- induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of the 10th Anniversary of the Chi- Chi Earthquake Sep. 23, 2009, NCU, Taiwan
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Transcript of THE DECREASE OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUND MOTION ESTIMATION BASED ON THE EMPIRICAL CORRECTION MODEL THE...
THE DECREASE OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUND THE DECREASE OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUND MOTION ESTIMATION BASED ON THE MOTION ESTIMATION BASED ON THE
EMPIRICAL CORRECTION MODELEMPIRICAL CORRECTION MODEL
K. L. Wen1,2,3), T. H. Wu2), M. W. Huang2), S. J. Jhang2), C. L. Chang2), S. Y. Liu2), Y. W. Chang3), C. M. Lin3), and C. H. Kuo3)
1) Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan2) National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan3) National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, Taiwan
The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of the 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi EarthquakeSep. 23, 2009, NCU, Taiwan
Model SettingModel SettingModeling Parameters
Model diemnsion (km3) 28(W) x 28(L) x 2.5(H)
Absorb boundary (grids) ± 100
Source type Double-Couple
Source location (km) (24,2,1)
Source time function (sec) 0.16, 0.0, 0.16
Velocity (km/s2)
SunShang formation Vp=1.5, Vs=0.86
Basin Basement Vp=3.0, Vs=1.70
Outside the Basin Vp=4.5, Vs=2.60
3D Finite-Difference Modeling of Strong 3D Finite-Difference Modeling of Strong Ground Motion in the Taipei BasinGround Motion in the Taipei Basin
3D Finite-Difference Modeling of Strong 3D Finite-Difference Modeling of Strong Ground Motion in the Taipei BasinGround Motion in the Taipei Basin
Basement + SunShang Formation
by Lee et al.
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Ground M otion In tensity,(g )
1E-006
1E-005
1E-004
1E-003
1E-002
1E-001
1E+000
2E-006
3E-0064E-0065E-0066E-0067E-0068E-0069E-006
2E-005
3E-0054E-0055E-0056E-0057E-0058E-0059E-005
0.0002
0.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.0009
0.002
0.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.009
0.02
0.030.040.050.060.070.080.09
0.2
0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
2
345
An
nu
al
Pro
ba
bil
ity
of
Ex
ce
ed
an
ce
, P
E
NPP3(120.70E, 21.97N)
AvgCurve(UNC+2S)AvgCurve(UNC+1S)AvgCurve(UNC)All SHACurve from differentZoning Schem es, Forms,Catalogs
Seismic Hazard Curve
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Ground M otion In tensity,(g )
1E-006
1E-005
1E-004
1E-003
1E-002
1E-001
1E+000
2E-006
3E-0064E-0065E-0066E-0067E-0068E-0069E-006
2E-005
3E-0054E-0055E-0056E-0057E-0058E-0059E-005
0.0002
0.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.0009
0.002
0.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.009
0.02
0.030.040.050.060.070.080.09
0.2
0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
2
345
An
nu
al
Pro
ba
bil
ity
of
Ex
ce
ed
an
ce
, P
E
NPP3(120.70E, 21.97N)
PGA Hazard Curve(90%)PGA Hazard Curve(50%)PGA Hazard Curve(10%)
Wen et al., 2009
• Very Dense Strong Motion Network （ TSMIP ） ; Many Eq. Records
05644.278315.075377.1 1222.000369.0)(
MM eRegPGA
• Attenuation Equation
• Geo-mean of two horizontal components.
(Chien,2001)
749.0ln E
1E-002 1E-001 1E+000 1E+001 1E+002
Hypocentral Distance,(km)
1E-005
1E-004
1E-003
1E-002
1E-001
1E+000
1E+001
Ho
rizo
nta
l Pea
k G
rou
nd
Acc
ele
rati
on
,(g
)
C hien(2001),M L=7.0
C hien(2001),M L=6.0
C hien(2001),M L=5.0
C hien(1999),M L=7.0
C hien(1999),M L=6.0
C hien(1999),M L=5.0
D ata 7 .0~
D ata 6 .0~7.0
D ata 5 .0~6.0
PGA-Attenuation Curve, Geo-Mean[EW ,NS] ML=5.0~7.5, Depth=0~35km
• Normalized Residual (NRi)
(Campbell, 1981)
Err
ii
MRErrNR
)(
MR is the average value of Erri
iii PGAPGAErr lnln
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
H yperC entral D istance, (km)
- 3
- 2
- 1
0
1
2
No
rma
lize
d R
es
idu
al S
co
re,(
NR
)
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7
Local Magnitude, ML
- 3
- 2
- 1
0
1
2
No
rma
lize
d R
es
idu
al S
co
re,(
NR
)
TAP:SiteE
0 50 100 150 200
H yperC entral D istance, (km)
- 1
0
1
2
3
No
rma
lize
d R
es
idu
al S
co
re,(
NR
)
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
Local Magnitude, ML
- 1
0
1
2
3
No
rma
lize
d R
es
idu
al S
co
re,(
NR
)
TAP035:SiteB
Station Correction v.r.t. Attenuation Equation
1E-004 1E-003 1E-002 1E-001
Predicted PGA, (g)
1E-004
1E-003
1E-002
1E-001
Ob
se
rve
d P
GA
, (g
)
TAP:SiteE ln(PD ) = 1.2177 * ln(Ya) + 1.1985Num ber of data points used = 72
) (Y CC) (PD ai lnln 10
1E-004 1E-003 1E-002 1E-001
Predicted PGA , (g)
1E-004
1E-003
1E-002
1E-001
Ob
se
rve
d P
GA
, (g
)
TAP035:SiteB ln(PD) = 0.9711 * ln(Ya) + 0.8008Num ber of data points used = 45
Correction coefficient of each station
0 . 0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9 1 . 0
Sigm a
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nu
mb
er o
f S
ite
SiteName
C0 C1 Ndat Sigma
ALS
-0.4435
1
0.93975 69 0.538023
ANP
-1.5351
9
0.8307 37 0.458684
CHK
-0.4052
3
0.87278 116 0.647094
CHN1
-0.2041
5
1.00523 44 0.553262
CHN30.3301
61.02583 58 0.410473
CHN4
-0.8599
9
0.89272 68 0.61564
KAU083-0.41679
0.85888 12 0.390788
KAU085 0.34151 0.95604 18 0.336565
KAU086-0.32391
0.81189 11 0.328784WNT 0.9414 1.03361 142 0.68337
WSF-
0.565120.75664 53 0.648461
WTP-
0.444010.87976 7 0.650949
Result fromAtt. Eq.
1999/9/21Observed
Result afterStation Corr.
Err.
iii PGAPGAErr lnln
1E-003 1E-002 1E-001 1E+000
Predicted PGA from A tt. Law, (g)
1E-003
1E-002
1E-001
1E+000
Ob
se
rve
d P
GA
, (g
)
1E-003 1E-002 1E-001 1E+000 1E+001
Predicted PGA by S ite effect correct, (g)
1E-003
1E-002
1E-001
1E+000
Ob
se
rve
d P
GA
, (g
)
0.657 0.567
0.749
120.00 120.50 121.00 121.50 122.00
Longitude
22.00
22.50
23.00
23.50
24.00
24.50
25.00
La
titu
de
7.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.10
1906/03/17(±ö¤s)Earthquake
020406080100120140160180200220240260280300320340360380400
ML=7.1Depth=6.0
¢ ¾¢ ½
¢ ¼
¢ »
¢ º
120.00 120.50 121.00 121.50 122.00
Longitude
21.85
22.35
22.85
23.35
23.85
24.35
24.85
25.35
La
titu
de
7.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.107.10
1935/04/21(·s¦Ë-¥x¤¤)Earthquake
020406080100120140160180200220240260280300320340360380400
ML=7.1Depth=12.0
¢ ¾¢ ½
¢ ¼
¢ »
¢ º
¢ ¹
Prob. of Charac. Eq. in next 50 yr.
50 年內
特徵地震發生機率
1.米崙斷層Milun F.
2.新化斷層 Hsinhua F.
3.大尖山 -觸口斷層
Tachienshan-Chukou F.
29.61%50.60%
46.69%
ML 7.3
ML 6.1
ML 7.3
Shake Map for (a) Milun Fault (ML=7.3), (b) Hsinhua Fault (ML=6.1), and
(c) Tachienshan-Chukou Fault (ML=7.3)
新化斷層Hsinhua F.
米崙斷層Milun F.
大尖山 -觸口斷層Tachienshan-Chukou F.
1999/9/21 Chi-Chi Eq.1999/9/21 Chi-Chi Eq.
Critical information Critical information
available in 102 secondsavailable in 102 seconds ：：
TimeTime ：： 1:47 AM1:47 AM
MagnitudeMagnitude ：： MMLL7.37.3
EpicenterEpicenter ：： Near Chi-ChiNear Chi-Chi
Regional intensity map.Regional intensity map.
Shaking time histories.Shaking time histories.
EEW
Ground Motion Estimation
)(,,,Predicted 10
jS
jObs
Liii PGA
PGARCCRMff
RTD Stations as Reference
Site
• 24 Zones
• Correlation
0 1 2 3 4AL S
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
CH
Y0
06
0 2 4 6C H N 4
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
CH
Y0
06
0 1 2 3 4 5C H N 5
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
CH
Y0
06
0 1 2 3 4W GK
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
CH
Y0
06
RefRTS1 RefRTS2
RefRTS3 RefRTS4
Correlation Sequence Table
ChiaNan1
SiteName RefRTSName
ALS ALS CHN5 CHN4 WTP WGK
CHN4 CHN4 CHN5 ALS WGK CHN5 CHN5 WTP ALS WGK CHN4
CHY006 CHN5 WGK ALS CHN4 CHY010 ALS WGK CHN4 CHY011 CHN5 WGK ALS CHN4 CHY014 CHN5 ALS CHN4 WGK CHY024 CHN4 WGK ALS CHN5 CHY028 CHN5 WGK ALS CHN4 CHY034 CHN4 ALS CHN5 WGK CHY042 CHN4 ALS CHN5 WGK CHY045 CHN4 WGK CHN5 CHY074 ALS CHN5 CHN4 WGK CHY080 CHN5 ALS CHN4 WGK CHY083 WGK CHN4 CHN5 ALS
WGK WGK CHN5 ALS CHN4 WTP
WTP WTP CHN5 ALS WGK
)(,,,Predicted 10
jS
jObs
Liii PGA
PGARCCRMff
March 31, 2002ML=6.8
Casualty:5 death272 injury
2002/03/31Observed
2002/03/31Result from1st calculation
2002/03/31Result from2nd calculation
2002/03/31Erri,iєS
2002/03/31Result from3rd calculation
PGAobs(g)
PGAobs(g)
PGAobs(g)
Yatt(g)
PGAsic(g)
PGAsoc(g)
σ= 0.5464
σ= 0.6238
σ= 0.6630March 31, 2002
ML6.8
PGV Estimation of the Sep. 25, 1999 ML6.8 Earthquake
(a)
(c) (e) (g)
~Thanks for Your Attention~~Thanks for Your Attention~
[email protected]@earth.ncu.edu.tw
The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of the 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi EarthquakeSep. 23, 2009, NCU, Taiwan
A very dense microtremor survey had been done in the Taiwan area.
Tokyo Sokushin: Recorder: SAMTAC-801B Sensor: VSE-311C.
Total 3917 stations
Station Interval ~ 2 km
Sampling rate: 200 sps.
