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To outsiders, Canada can be a dull and stodgy place. As a country we enjoy a high standard of living, an unparalleled social cohesion and a fiscal ledger that while no longer the envy of the industrialized world still affords us membership in the G7 group of nations. For the most part the world pays little attention to us. Yet we seem to like it that way. Inside of Canada, there is recognition that our politics are opaque. Beyond the echo chambers of Parliament Hill and Queen’s Park, people seem more concerned about the inferior offering of Canadian Netflix than they do about, say, electoral reform.

The decision by the federal government to abandon the mandatory long-form census managed to wed these perspectives. Inside those echo chambers there was a sense that this was a very ill-advised manoeuvre. To those outside looking in, it was the political equivalent of three-down football. However, just because Canadians reacted exactly as you would expect it, doesn’t mean that there were not important implications for how business is done in this country. For local governments the negative impacts were considerable. In a world of big data, the census was the biggest data of them all. From New France through today, the census has been a foundation of sound government. The decision to scrap the mandatory long-form census is one that should concern every municipality in Canada.

Canada’s Long-Standing Census History

Census-taking has a long-standing place in Canadian history and pre-dates Confederation. The first census undertaken in what is now Canada was carried out by Jean Talon in 1666. As Intendant of New France, Talon was tasked by French King Louis XIV to stimulate economic expansion, increase the colony’s self-sufficiency, and bring order to its financial administration. Talon knew that in order to develop the proper policies to achieve his goals, he needed to have the right information to do so.

In the winter of 1666-67, he began this endeavour. Talon’s census recorded all colonial citizens’ name, age, occupation, marital status, and relationship to the head of the family in which they lived. The census also measured the wealth of industry and agriculture, the value of local lumber and mineral

BY THOMAS BARAKAT Policy & Research, OGRA

The Death of Public Data in Canada

In a world of big data, the census was the biggest data of them all. From New France through today, the census has been a foundation of sound government. The decision to scrap the mandatory long-form census is one that should concern every municipality in Canada.

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resources, and the number of domestic animals, seigneuries, government buildings, and churches. Collecting this data was not an easy task for Talon as he physically went door-to-door during New France’s harsh winter. However, his efforts bore fruit. In a period where surviving the winter was a challenge, diseases such as scurvy and smallpox were prevalent, and constant violent confrontation with Aboriginal peoples was normal, the population of the colony managed to grow from 3,200 people to 7,600 by 1672. How did he achieve his desired results? When Talon quantified the gender imbalance of the colony, he was then able to develop various policies to promote marriage and the bearing of children. He arranged for approximately 900 young French women, known as the filles du roi, to immigrate to New France as part of a program sponsored by Louis XIV. He also used financial incentives: each young woman who married received 50 livres (the currency of New France) in household supplies and provisions while those who married by age twenty received an additional 20 livres. Furthermore, families who had ten children were entitled to a pension of three hundred livres annually while those with twelve received four hundred.

As the Intendant of New France, Talon did more than just increase the population; he managed the finances as well as the infrastructure of the colony. His responsibilities included everything from taxes to healthcare, and from bridge-building to chimney sweeping. As his census also measured the wealth of industry and agriculture, he was able to help diversify the economy from one primarily based in the fur trade by establishing local industries. Under Jean-Baptiste

Colbert’s administration, he encouraged the building of manufactories for wool products, textiles, and domestic crafts. He also helped establish a shipyard, a brewery, a shoe factory, sawmills, and a tannery. Talon stimulated the lumber trade while encouraging immigrants to settle and establish farms along the St. Lawrence River by giving them free tools to clear the land. These efforts could not have been achieved so effectively without the data that he had collected. It is no wonder he braved the harsh Quebec winter of 1666-67 to gather this information.

The Tragic Death of the Mandatory Long-Form Census

Fast-forward to 2010: The federal government led by Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper eliminated the most important data-gathering tool in the country, the mandatory long-form census. It was replaced by the voluntary National Household Survey (NHS), a more expensive and less effective tool for policymakers. The reasons behind this move were purely political and they are a fine example of why many have tuned out their representatives in Parliament. The response rate for the mandatory long-form version of the census had been 93.5%; whereas under the shorter, voluntary version, it plummeted to 68.6%. Although the voluntary version was sent out to more people, it received significantly lower response rates particularly from mid-sized cities, small communities, rural areas, aboriginals, immigrants, and lower-income Canadians. The 2011 census and NHS cost $29 million more than the 2006 version. It’s difficult to justify spending more to receive less in any industry, let alone

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“ Decisions need to be made, so they are going to get made, whether you have bad data or good data. If you have bad data, you’re going to make bad policy decisions. –Munir Sheikh.”

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one that is funded by the general public. Some areas received so few responses that the data collected needed to be suppressed. Above, Map 1 details the suppressed census subdivisions (CSDs) in black. Approximately 25% of geographic areas do not have reliable NHS data available for their use.

The costs don’t end there. Developing policy based on spotty data will only cost Canadians more over time. If policymakers cannot identify negative trends and attempt to prevent them from growing into large-scale issues, it will be costlier to develop solutions after-the-fact. Preventative policy is cheaper than reactionary policy. Secondly, if policymakers are tasked with developing a solution to a perceived problem but aren’t in possession of data which accurately reflects the situation at hand, then policies developed will either be attempting to solve the wrong problem or will be completely off target in terms of measuring the perceived problem. Policy outcomes would also be distorted as policymakers could have a flawed idea of what a successful outcome should be. Furthermore, valuable resources could be wasted in areas where they aren’t needed. Put simply, policymaking without accurate and complete data is an enormous waste of public money.

“Decisions need to be made, so they are going to get made, whether you have bad data or good data. If you have bad data, you’re going to make bad policy decisions.” –Munir Sheikh

Why spend more to get less? The government’s reasoning behind eliminating the mandatory long-form census was that it violated the privacy of Canadian citizens by forcing them to complete it. Then-Industry Minister Tony Clement went on the record saying that public complaints about being forced to complete the census had consistently gone up. However, in a 2010 interview, Ivan Fellegi, Canada’s chief statistician from 1985-2008, argued that the opposite had actually occurred and that Canada’s privacy commissioner had received just three complaints in the last ten years regarding the census. Clement also argued that Statistics Canada actually

recommended the switch to the voluntary National Household Survey. That is highly unlikely as the chief statistician at the time, Munir Sheikh, actually resigned in protest of the government’s decision to abolish the mandatory long-form census. He went on the record stating:

“I want to take this opportunity to comment on a technical statistical issue which has become the subject of media discussion...the question of whether a voluntary survey can become a substitute for a mandatory census. It can not.”

The Canadian public lost access to reliable data that cannot be replaced by private data mining or consumer-type data as the private sector does not survey the entire populace like the mandatory long-form census did. The surveys that Statistics Canada carries out are universal and thus the information reflects the entire population. Data is also collected in a consistent manner making it extremely reliable. However, once responding to the long-form portion of the survey became voluntary, all that was lost. Sheikh has also gone on the record to state:

“Voluntary surveys are simply a waste of money, they cannot provide you the kind of accurate information that you need to make your policy decisions. So in my view, this is the worst of both worlds.”

Earlier this year, Liberal MP Ted Hsu introduced a private member’s bill to bring back the long-form census and strengthen the independence of Canada’s chief statistician. Bill C-626 received support from the opposition benches,

Source: University of Waterloo

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but the government response was that they were opposed to the core principles of the bill as it would “legally compel Canadians to answer intrusive questions.” A strong and diverse consensus to restore the mandatory long-form census prevails amongst researchers, planners, business groups, bar associations, NGOs, and a diverse set of think tanks.

Municipalities: The Big Losers

Along with those researchers, planners, business groups, bar associations, NGOs, think tanks, and pretty much the entire Canadian populace, municipalities are also big losers in the post-mandatory long-form census world. The level of government which most impacts the day-to-day lives of citizens has essentially been robbed of reliable data which allows them to properly plan and deliver services. Developing policies and services relating to land use planning, transportation/transit, social services, education, healthcare/EMS, newcomer services, childcare, and affordable housing has become a more challenging process. However, as Mel Cappe, then-President of the Institute for Research on Public Policy and former Clerk of the Privy Council pointed out, it’s average citizens who are most impacted:

“It’s not a bunch of policy wonks. This is real people being affected by this…urban planners use the census results to identify where to put in roads, where to put in sewers, where to put in schools. That’s pretty valuable stuff. You need to know a lot of detail to get an understanding of what kind of facilities to put in.”

The quality of census data is affecting municipalities of all sizes from major metropolises to mid-sized cities to small rural towns.

Major Metropolis: The City of Toronto

Toronto had a response rate of 77.6% (considered high by NHS standards) to the voluntary portion of the survey. Like many municipalities, Toronto provides subsidized childcare for low-income families. Subsidies are distributed based on the number of low-income families on a ward-by-ward basis. If a ward has 5% of the city’s low-income families, then 5% of the subsidies would be allocated to that ward. However, since lower-income families are less likely to respond to the census, the reality on the ground will not be accurately reflected in the data received in the voluntary NHS.

Consequently, when census data is used to direct the above-mentioned subsidies, those wards with a higher concentration of low-income families won’t receive the appropriate amount of funding. Those most in need will not fully benefit from the city’s childcare subsidy policy. In a recent interview, Harvey Low, the Manager of Social Research and Analysis for the City of Toronto, claimed that the city now spends more time inspecting and analyzing the quality of the data instead of the actual content of it, which raises costs.

Mid-Sized City: The City of Peterborough

The City of Peterborough, which has a population of 123,000, had a particularly troubling 36% response rate to the voluntary National Household Survey – the lowest response rate of all Canadian cities. It has become a challenge for public health officials as they have lost important data relating to its population’s health. For example, officials are no longer aware of the number of children affected by specific illnesses and diseases. Since Peterborough does not have room in its budget to complete its own public health survey, the city is forced to use nearly 10 year-old data, from the 2006 census. The gap in the data will only continue to grow and cost the city more in the long-run.

Small Towns and Townships

There is even more volatility in the data received under the NHS when looking at the results for smaller towns and townships. As these areas don’t have access to any of the comparative data sources (other than the 2006 census) enjoyed by some of the larger metropolitan areas, it is even more difficult to verify the accuracy of their NHS data. Small towns and townships rely on accurate census data the most as it is the sole survey that uniformly gathers information for their small sample sizes. If a town were to gather this data on its own, officials would either need to hire a consultant, form research groups, or allocate staff to visit the communities and gather the data. Most small municipalities don’t have room in their budgets or enough staff for such activities.

Losing the mandatory long-form census was a double whammy for municipalities of all sizes. Not only was valuable data for policy purposes lost, but so was a valuable tool to argue for federal funding. The census was able to deliver concrete information showing the federal government where municipalities needed the most help. Prior to being elected Mayor of Caledon, then-Councillor Allan Thompson argued:

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“A lot of the time when we go to tell them what our concerns are, the first thing the bureaucrats say to us is ‘prove it’…without hard facts, it will be easier now for bureaucrats to rebuff demands.”

Perhaps the federal government is content with such an outcome. From a policy perspective, the elimination of statistical evidence means the problem doesn’t exist and thus no funds must be spent to address it.

Municipal Censuses

Could municipalities fill the void left behind by the federal government? Although “Census and Statistics” is listed as a federal power under Section 91 of the Constitution Act, 1982, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Yukon, and Nunavut have passed legislation allowing municipalities to conduct civic censuses. Calgary and Edmonton are the most prominent cities who have utilized this tool. Calgary first began conducting a civic census in 1931, while Edmonton’s dates back to 1892. The civic censuses conducted by these two cities are far less comprehensive than Statistics Canada’s cancelled mandatory long-form, but do ask questions relating to employment status and commuting.

Figure 1 provides a complete list of questions asked by the City of Edmonton in their most recent census.Civic censuses in Calgary and Edmonton were conducted prior to the cancellation of the mandatory long-form census, but occurred more frequently than the five year interval of the federal census in order to keep data relevant on important measures such as population size. Calgary currently conducts a census annually, while Edmonton conducts one biennially. The information collected in these censuses helps municipal leaders make informed decisions regarding transportation, recreation, and many other city services.

Alberta’s Municipal Government Act is the enabling legislation which allows municipalities to conduct civic censuses. Ontario’s Municipal Act contains no such clause. As the Government of Ontario mulls re-opening the Act later this year, perhaps the addition of a clause allowing for civic censuses should be considered. Municipalities, as a responsible order of government, should have the right to decide whether such an activity should be conducted within their boundaries or not. If a municipality is lacking data in a certain sector, as for example Peterborough is lacking in its public health data, it could decide to survey its residents on this topic. If the Province takes a decentralized approach it would allow each municipality to decide for itself what type of data it would need to gather, if any at all. This would be an improvement over the status quo, which completely handcuffs municipalities in this regard.

Moving Forward

As opposition parties have failed in their attempts to restore the mandatory long-form census, it is apparent that such a restoration will not happen under the current federal government. Unfortunately, the only option left for the many municipalities, researchers, planners, business groups, bar associations, NGOs, and think tanks hoping to see the census restored is to elect a new government in this fall’s federal election. If such an outcome were to occur, it would likely be too late for the mandatory long-form census to be re-instated in time for the 2016 survey. Thus, a major data gap measuring the well-being of the country would exist between 2006 and 2021. Jean Talon would be appalled to learn that such a gap was voluntarily created by representatives whose constitutional duty is to provide peace, order, and good government.

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Losing the mandatory long-form census was a double whammy for municipalities of all sizes. Not only was valuable data for policy purposes lost, but so was a valuable tool to argue for federal funding. The census was able to deliver concrete information showing the federal government where municipalities needed the most help.

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Figure 1: City of Edmonton Civic Census Questions