The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research...
-
Upload
sandra-reynolds -
Category
Documents
-
view
212 -
download
0
Transcript of The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research...
![Page 1: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070415/5697bfc61a28abf838ca7285/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Data Have Spoken:Climate Model Forecasts
Have Failed
Dr. Roy W. SpencerPrincipal Research Scientist
The University of Alabama in Huntsville30 October 2015
![Page 2: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070415/5697bfc61a28abf838ca7285/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Global Tropospheric Temperatures Monitored since 1979 with satellites
by two separate research groups (UAH, RSS)
![Page 3: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070415/5697bfc61a28abf838ca7285/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Climate Models Over-Forecast Global Warmingwhen compared to all 3 types of temperature data
(satellites, radiosondes, near-surface thermometers)
![Page 4: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070415/5697bfc61a28abf838ca7285/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Model Failures Extend to Regional Predictions
e.g. the U.S. CORN BELT…this then leads to exaggerated projections of climate change impacts on agricultural yields.
![Page 5: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070415/5697bfc61a28abf838ca7285/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Conclusion
• It is difficult to base energy policy (e.g. the Social Cost of Carbon) on models which are demonstrably wrong in their predictions.