The current economic situation

Swedbank2010-08-20

First Deputy Governor Svante Öberg

Global GDP growthAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Sources: IMF and the RiksbankNote. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

GDP growth in the BRIC countriesAnnual percentage change

Source: IMFNote. 2010 and 2011: IMF forecasts from July.

2009 2010 2011Brazil -0.2 7.1 4.2Russia -7.9 4.3 4.1India 5.7 9.4 8.4China 9.1 10.5 9.6

GDP growth in the USAAnnual percentage change

Sources: IMF and the Riksbank

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Purchasing managers’ indexIndex figure above 50 indicates growth

Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and Swedbank

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Euro area

USA

Inflation in the USAAnnual percentage change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CPI USA

CPI excluding energy and food USA

Central banks’ balance sheetsPer cent of GDP

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the respective central banks

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

The Riksbank

ECB

Federal reserve

GDP growth in the euro areaAnnual percentage change

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Sources: IMF and the Riksbank

Inflation in the euro areaAnnual percentage change

Source: Eurostat

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5HICP total

HIKP excluding energy and unprocessed food

Public finances in the OECD-areaPer cent of GDP

Source: OECD

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

70

75

80

85

90

95

100Government net lending

General government gross financial liabilities

Interest rate differential against Germany Percentage points

Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. 10-year Government bonds

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10Greece

Ireland

Italy

Portugal

Spain

Basis spread Difference between the interbank rate and the expected policy rateBasis points

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Euro area

USA

CDS premiums for the banks

Source: Reuters EcoWin

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100Alpha Bank (GR)Banco espirito (PT)Banco Commercial (PT)Caxia geral de Depositos (PT)Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (IT)Intesa Sanpaolo (IT)Santander (SPA)Banco Bilbao (SPA)

GDP growthAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

GDP per quarterQuarterly percentage change, seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistics Sweden

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Economic Tendency SurveyIndex, average = 100, standard deviation = 10

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

The Economic Tendency IndicatorMean+/- one standard deviation

Purchasing managers’ indexIndex above 50 indicates growth

Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and Swedbank

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Euro areaSwedenUSA

Industrial and services productionIndex, 2005 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data

Source: Statistics Sweden

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Industrial production

Production of services

Labour and employmentThousand persons,15-74 years, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200Employed

Labour force

UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, 15-74 years, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

0

2

4

6

8

10

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

2

4

6

8

10

InflationAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5CPI

CPIF

Inflation and inflation expectations Annual percentage change, all agents

Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera and Statistics Sweden

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5Inflation expectations 5 years aheadCPI

Repo ratePer cent, daily data respectively quarterly averages

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.

Source: The Riksbank

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

July

April

Repo rate and expected repo ratePer cent, all agents

Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

0

1

2

3

4

5Repo rate

Repo rate expectations 5 year ahead

Monetary policy expectationsPer cent, money market participants

Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

0

1

2

3

4

5

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0

1

2

3

4

5Repo rateForward rate 2010-06-23Forward rate 2010-08-18

The Riksbank’s outstanding loansSEK billion

Source: the Riksbank

0

100

200

300

400

Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

0

100

200

300

400SEK, commercial paperSEK, variable rateSEK, fixed rate