The Current (and Future) State of Oil and Gas M&A...2019/01/24 · Oil: Natural Gas: • U.S. is...
Transcript of The Current (and Future) State of Oil and Gas M&A...2019/01/24 · Oil: Natural Gas: • U.S. is...
The Current (and Future) State of Oil and Gas M&A
January 24, 2019
MCLE Information
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MCLE Certificate Information
• Most participants should anticipate receiving their certificate of attendance in four weeks following the webcast.
• Virginia Bar Association members should anticipate receiving their certificate of attendance in six weeks following the webcast.
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Agenda
3
• Part 1: State of the Industry
• Part 2: A Short History Lesson
• Part 3: 2018 Predictions vs. 2018 Actual
• Part 4: Outlook – Where Are We Going in 2019?
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Part 1: State of the Industry
I. Commodity Prices
II. Global Oil and Gas Landscape
III. Deal Activity
IV. Water
V. Other Key Themes
Part 1: State of the Industry
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Volatility or as‐expected?• Oil pricing forecasted to be range‐bound between $45/bbl and $65/bbl (same forecast as last year)
• Natural gas pricing forecasted to remain flat (same forecast as last year)
• Oil price (WTI): $52.44/bbl (Jan. 24, 2019) vs. ~$65.00/bbl (Jan. 24, 2018)
• NG price (HH): $3.05/mcf (Jan. 24, 2019) vs. ~$3.40/mcf (Jan. 24, 2018)
I. Commodity Prices
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• Headlines (as well as tweets) tell (and/or create) the story:₋ June 2018: "OPEC ministers agree to raise oil production"
₋ Sept. 2018: "Don't Underestimate The Trade War Impact On Oil Demand"
₋ Sept. 2018: "What Oil at $100 a Barrel Would Mean for the Global Economy"
₋ Oct. 2018: "Saudi Crown Prince Assures U.S. All of Iran’s Lost Oil Is Replaced"
₋ Nov. 2018: "Trump will grant 8 waivers to buy Iranian oil, allowing imports beyond US sanctions deadline"
₋ Dec. 2018: "OPEC and Allies, Defying Trump, Agree to Cut Output to Prop Up Oil Prices"
₋ Dec. 2018: "Fed Interest Rate Decision Adds To Oil Price Rout"
• Similar headlines (and tweets) expected in 2019:₋ Jan. 2019: "Could Oil Prices Rise By $25 Per Barrel In 2019?"
₋ Jan. 2019: "US crude drops 2.3%, settling at $52.57, on fresh signs of global economic slowdown"
• Predictions for 2019 commodity prices similar to those provided in 2018
I. Commodity Prices (cont.)
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A tweet says a thousand words (or 280 characters):
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Oil: Natural Gas:
• U.S. is largest oil producer
• Global oil demand expected to grow into 2020s+
• Wide‐ranging predictions on timing of "peak oil demand"
• OPEC curtailments of 1.2 MMBbl/d (Dec. 2018)
• Majors investing heavily in short‐cycle unconventionals
• U.S. is largest natural gas producer
• Global gas demand forecast to grow into 2030s
• Increasing demand as a low‐carbon alternative
• China is world’s leading importer of natural gas
• Majors investing heavily in natural gas projects
II. Global Oil and Gas Landscape
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Upstream – 2018 vs. 2017 Midstream – 2018 vs. 2017
• Number of transactions: 194 (2018) vs. 240 (2017)
• Value of transactions: $84 Bn (2018) vs. $68 Bn (2017)
• M&A in midstream sector remains robust
• Value of transactions: $17.9 Bn (2018) vs. $17.2 Bn (2017)
III. Deal Activity
• Water is the next significant infrastructure opportunity
• Associated water and frac flow‐backs create an increased need for water takeaway
• Most capital has been focused on oil, gas and NGL takeaway; water has been overlooked
• Water infrastructure has not been built‐out, potentially creating a restraint on production growth
• A new industry is developing, presenting a number of complexities in transactions
IV. Water
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• Investor Sentiment:
Upstream
‒ Valuations for public E&P companies decreased in 2018
‒ Public investors continue to require capital discipline
‒ Significant amount of private equity "dry powder" remains un‐deployed
Midstream
‒ Despite strong performance, valuations of public midstream companies remain unchanged
‒ Restructuring of traditional MLPs expected to continue
‒ Private infrastructure fundraising an all‐time high in 2018 ($85 Bn)
V. Other Key Themes
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• Corporate consolidation and tightening of portfolios:
‒ Strengthening of balance sheets through economies of scale
‒ "Coring‐up" continues
• Private capital:
‒ Gap‐filler for scarcity of public capital
‒ Opportunistic M&A, "drillcos," long‐haul transportation projects, etc.
‒ Strategy for private capital exits is evolving
• Midstream and infrastructure buildout:
₋ M&A and MLP simplifications
₋ Producer‐midstream JVs
₋ Water, water, water
• Permian: hottest play remains the hottest play
V. Other Key Themes (cont.)
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Part 2: A Short History Lesson
You know the maxim: Those who ignore history…
I. 2014/2015 – The Downfall
II. 2016/2017 – The Recovery
Part 2: A Short History Lesson
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• Great run until Thanksgiving Day 2014
• Huge price drop beginning Thanksgiving Day
• Significant slowdown in M&A activity
• Bankruptcies
I. 2014/2015 – The Downfall
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• Asset‐level A&D upswing
• Permian, and more Permian
• SPACs
• Scaling up and aggregating
• Monetizing non‐core assets
II. 2016/2017 – The Recovery
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Part 3: 2018 Predictions vs. 2018 Actual
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What Did We Tell You Last Year To Expect In 2018? What Happened In 2018?
• Oil prices in the $45‐$65 range
• The Permian would remain the King
• Consolidation
• Aggregating/scaling up in core areas
• Divesting from non‐core areas
• SPACs
• Consolidation in oilfield services
• Increase in midstream M&A
• Oil prices generally in the $45‐$65 range
• The Permian remained the King, but…
• Consolidation
• Aggregating/scaling up in core areas
• Divesting from non‐core areas
• SPACs
• Some oilfield services consolidation
• Increase in midstream M&A
Part 3: 2018 Predictions vs. 2018 Actual
Part 4: Outlook – Where Are We Going in 2019?
I. What are expectations for commodity prices?
II. What will drive deal activity in 2019?
III. Will M&A activity in midstream continue?
IV. Will the Permian finally be knocked out of the top spot for upstream M&A?
V. Further consolidation in oilfield services?
Part 4: Outlook – Where Are We Going in 2019?
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Contact Information
Presenters
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Michael P. DardenPartnerOil and Gas Transactions/ProjectsTel.: +1 [email protected]
Justin T. StoltePartnerEnergy M&ATel.: +1 [email protected]
Jeffrey ChapmanPartnerGlobal Co‐Chair, M&ATel.: +1 [email protected]
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