The curious place of famine in world The curious place of famine in world population history population history

1.1. What is famine?What is famine?

2.2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” positive check?Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” positive check?

3.3. Why was the Irish potato famine so unusual?Why was the Irish potato famine so unusual?

4.4. How do modern famines differ from historical How do modern famines differ from historical

ones?ones?

5.5. The future of famine vs. other health risks. The future of famine vs. other health risks.

Bibliography on famineBibliography on famine

• Dyson, Tim and Corma O Grada (eds.) Dyson, Tim and Corma O Grada (eds.) Famine Famine DemographyDemography (2002) (2002)

• Maharatna, Arup. Maharatna, Arup. The Demography of FaminesThe Demography of Famines (1996). (1996).• Livi Bacci, Massimo. Livi Bacci, Massimo. Population and NutritionPopulation and Nutrition (1991). (1991). • Walter, J. and R. Schofield (eds.) Walter, J. and R. Schofield (eds.) Famine, Disease and Famine, Disease and

the Social Order in Early Modern Societythe Social Order in Early Modern Society (1989) (1989)• Arnold, D. Arnold, D. Famine, Social Crisis and Historical ChangeFamine, Social Crisis and Historical Change

(1988).(1988).• Vaughan, M. Vaughan, M. Story of an African FamineStory of an African Famine (1987). (1987).• Mokyr, Joel. Mokyr, Joel. Why Ireland StarvedWhy Ireland Starved (1985). (1985). • Appleby, A.B. Appleby, A.B. Famine in Tudor and Stuart EnglandFamine in Tudor and Stuart England

(1978).(1978).

11rabbitrabbit(1454):(1454):

“a“agreatgreat

hungerhungerkilledkilledmany many of the of the

people”people”

Ancient “Mexico”Ancient “Mexico”

1 rabbit (1454): 1 rabbit (1454): “a great hunger killed many of the people”“a great hunger killed many of the people”

--Ancient Mexico--Ancient Mexico(not a “paradise”!)(not a “paradise”!)

• Famines in 1446, and 1450-1455, caused great Famines in 1446, and 1450-1455, caused great hardship, including widespread human sacrifice, hardship, including widespread human sacrifice, a sharp rise in slavery, and extreme mortality. a sharp rise in slavery, and extreme mortality.

• 1454: 1454: • ““People died in the open, the youth had wrinkled skin People died in the open, the youth had wrinkled skin

like the elderly, and buzzards fed on human corpses.” like the elderly, and buzzards fed on human corpses.”

• Men “sold their families, their children one by one, for Men “sold their families, their children one by one, for a bit of corn and two tamales, and for the wife, one a bit of corn and two tamales, and for the wife, one tamale, and finished by selling themselves, leaving the tamale, and finished by selling themselves, leaving the province of Hetoquaro deserted.”province of Hetoquaro deserted.”

1. What is famine? Classic, modern 1. What is famine? Classic, modern and customary definitions and customary definitions

• Classic definition: Classic definition: • ““a state of extreme hunger suffered by the population a state of extreme hunger suffered by the population

of a region as a result of the failure of the accustomed of a region as a result of the failure of the accustomed food supply”food supply”

• Modern definition (or a definition for modern Modern definition (or a definition for modern times?): times?): • Amartya Sen (Noble prize for economics, 1998): Amartya Sen (Noble prize for economics, 1998):

famine is a question of food ownership, not supply—a famine is a question of food ownership, not supply—a question of entitlement not availability.question of entitlement not availability.

• A failure of governance and distribution, not A failure of governance and distribution, not production? production?

What is famine? customary What is famine? customary definition (Chad, 1990s) definition (Chad, 1990s)

• ““We have suffered four major famines during my We have suffered four major famines during my lifetime. lifetime. • ““The first was called Amzaytone, meaning ‘the time we sold The first was called Amzaytone, meaning ‘the time we sold

our necklaces,’ in the 1950s. our necklaces,’ in the 1950s.

• ““The second, about ten years later was El Harigue, ‘the year The second, about ten years later was El Harigue, ‘the year when everything burnt,’ when our crops shrivelled in the heat when everything burnt,’ when our crops shrivelled in the heat of the sun. of the sun.

• ““The third, in 1982, was Alchouil, ‘the year of the sack,’ when The third, in 1982, was Alchouil, ‘the year of the sack,’ when traders came with sacks of millet for us to buy. traders came with sacks of millet for us to buy.

• ““Finally, in 1985, the big famine came upon us. We called this Finally, in 1985, the big famine came upon us. We called this Laitche, meaning ‘the year when everyone fled from the Laitche, meaning ‘the year when everyone fled from the area.’”area.’”

Major famines in modern times Major famines in modern times

• China, Great Leap Forward, 1958-61: 14-30 China, Great Leap Forward, 1958-61: 14-30 million excess deathsmillion excess deaths

• Bengal (India), 1943: 3 million (many due to Bengal (India), 1943: 3 million (many due to malaria)malaria)

• Sahel, 1970-74: ¼ million Sahel, 1970-74: ¼ million

• Bangladesh, 1974-5: 1.5 millionBangladesh, 1974-5: 1.5 million

• Ireland, 1846-50: 1-1.5 million Ireland, 1846-50: 1-1.5 million

2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” 2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” positive check?—or not??positive check?—or not??

• Famine tends to be weather-related or politically Famine tends to be weather-related or politically induced, rather than due to population out-induced, rather than due to population out-stripping food supplystripping food supply

• Famine in the past was limited in its geographical Famine in the past was limited in its geographical expanse (small regions instead of large ones)expanse (small regions instead of large ones)

• Famine is not an effective regulator of Famine is not an effective regulator of demographic growthdemographic growth• Consider impacts on: mortality, fertility, migration, Consider impacts on: mortality, fertility, migration,

family, and population structure (next slide).family, and population structure (next slide).

2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” 2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” positive check?—not!!positive check?—not!!

• Famine is not an effective regulator of demographic Famine is not an effective regulator of demographic growthgrowth• Mortality may not be high (<20%) compared with epidemics Mortality may not be high (<20%) compared with epidemics

(>20%), and tends to be concentrated among the young and (>20%), and tends to be concentrated among the young and oldold

• Fertility: lost births are quickly replacedFertility: lost births are quickly replaced

• Migration: an effective response—does not constitute Migration: an effective response—does not constitute demographic lossdemographic loss

• Historically, families are quickly reconstituted—a marriage Historically, families are quickly reconstituted—a marriage boom follows; cultural taboos relaxedboom follows; cultural taboos relaxed

• Age structure effects Age structure effects productive age groups survive best productive age groups survive best

China: Famine induced “birth dearth” China: Famine induced “birth dearth” (1958-61) followed by baby boomlet (1962-3):(1958-61) followed by baby boomlet (1962-3):

~30 million lost births~30 million lost birthsRelatively stable fertility to 1950Fertility transition occurred very rapidly

Tota

l Fe

rtili

ty R

ate

China: Total fertility rateyear

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

0

2

4

6

8

Relatively stable fertility to 1950Fertility transition occurred very rapidly

To

ta

l F

ertility R

ate

China: Total fertility rateyear

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

0

2

4

6

8

China’sChina’sgreat great

faminefamine1958-1961 1958-1961 etched into etched into

the the population population pyramidpyramid(1982)(1982)15-30 15-30

million million excess excess deathsdeaths

3. Why was the Irish potato famine 3. Why was the Irish potato famine so unusual?so unusual?

• The greatest in 19The greatest in 19thth century Europe century Europe• Catastrophic reduction in food supplyCatastrophic reduction in food supply• Substantial, sustained shift in demography: mortality, fertility, Substantial, sustained shift in demography: mortality, fertility,

population decline (8.2m 1841 to 4.5 in 1901) , emigration (1.5 population decline (8.2m 1841 to 4.5 in 1901) , emigration (1.5 million in a decade), marriage (mean age rose 4 years; never million in a decade), marriage (mean age rose 4 years; never marrying increased to 20%).marrying increased to 20%).

• Malthusian positive check?Malthusian positive check?• Not precipitated by man (war, governance), but by a fungusNot precipitated by man (war, governance), but by a fungus• Underlying demography--early marriage, high growth rate—Underlying demography--early marriage, high growth rate—

and mono-crop dependence on potato led to precarious and mono-crop dependence on potato led to precarious balancebalance

• Poverty was the big killer—few died of starvation Poverty was the big killer—few died of starvation (10%); most died of DDG (dysentery, diarrhea, and (10%); most died of DDG (dysentery, diarrhea, and gastroenteritis) or fever (infectious disease)gastroenteritis) or fever (infectious disease)

4. How do modern famines differ 4. How do modern famines differ from historical ones?from historical ones?

• Demographic impacts:Demographic impacts:• Excess mortality rates: much greater in the past, than Excess mortality rates: much greater in the past, than

today (infections are controlled; epidemics prevented)today (infections are controlled; epidemics prevented)

• Birth effects: more pronounced in the pastBirth effects: more pronounced in the past

• Migration: less widespread in the pastMigration: less widespread in the past

• Marriage: quick reconstruction of families, slowedMarriage: quick reconstruction of families, slowed

• Causes, nature or man? Causes, nature or man? • Then: real dearth with inadequate transportationThen: real dearth with inadequate transportation

• Now: induced dearth due to war, mal-goveranceNow: induced dearth due to war, mal-goverance

5. The future of famine vs. other 5. The future of famine vs. other health risks. health risks.

• Widely predicted famines of 20Widely predicted famines of 20thth century did not century did not materializematerialize• The biggest 20The biggest 20thth century famines were due to century famines were due to

collectivization efforts: Ukraine 1932-3, China 1958-collectivization efforts: Ukraine 1932-3, China 1958-61, Vietnam 1956, Ethiopia 1980.61, Vietnam 1956, Ethiopia 1980.

• As population growth slows, future famines are As population growth slows, future famines are unlikely—except due to war and failure of unlikely—except due to war and failure of international assistance international assistance

• ““Famine” captures the imagination, but water-Famine” captures the imagination, but water-borne diseases cause many, many more deathsborne diseases cause many, many more deaths

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