The CSIS AQAM Futures ProjectSTRATFOR briefing June 13, 2011

Thomas M. SandersonCSIS Transnational Threats Project

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Overview

• Project update• Case studies• Field visits• Futures Building• September 7, 2011 Event

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Project Milestones

• Phase I: Baseline assessment – complete• Phase II: Case studies – All near completion (AQI done)• Phase III: Field Visits – Africa complete; SE Asia June 18• Phase III: Future models – underway• Phase IV: Recommendations and Conclusions: Sept 7

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Case Studies

Historical profiles of selected AQAM groups that determine which factors have driven “change” within these groups:• What contributed to a particular group’s ability to

organize itself and conduct attacks?• What diminished a group’s ability to do these things?• Common factors, recurring patterns?• Can we draw general conclusions?

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Case Study Groups• Al Qaeda Core• Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and splinters• Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)• Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)• Al-Shabaab • Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)• Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)• Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)• Homegrown Cells in the West

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Project Field Visits

Countries Dates

UK, France, Norway March

Morocco, Mali, Egypt, Kenya, Tanz., Ethiopia April 17 – May 10

Bangladesh, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand June 19 – July 2

US/Canada July 2011

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Related Field Visits

• Uzbekistan• Tajikistan• Kyrgyzstan• Russia• Pakistan

• Singapore• Australia• UK, France, Norway• Xinjiang (Western China)• Afghanistan

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Feedback from Europe Field Work

“Young, radicalized Bedouins in the Sinai and Salafists in Gaza will present a significant near/mid-term problem with the turmoil in the Middle East.”

“General Kayani is closely monitoring morale reports coming from Pak Army base commanders. He is looking for rising Islamist activity/sympathy among the troops…and if detected Kayani would likely allow it to play out instead of cracking down right away.”

“AQIM’s message does not resonate in Algeria (fatigue) but in the Sahel, they bring goods and money that local tribes see as a net benefit…which allows AQIM a high degree of flexibility and access”

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Feedback from Africa field work

• AQIM: Active and with prospects in Libya, Nigeria• Libya a magnet: AQIM, LIFG, Jihadis• AQAM resonance in Egypt?• Al Shabaab: Surviving or thriving?• Impact of Arab Spring and OBL death• Future problems

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Comments/Questions?