The Communities of the Future Future Major Trends Shaping...
Transcript of The Communities of the Future Future Major Trends Shaping...
7/5/2012
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Communities of the Future Major Trends Shaping
Where And How We Will
Live, Work, And Play
As Presented by John Martin
The
Future
Generational
Lens
Cultural &
Societal
Trends
Demographic
Trends
1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01
58,000,000
44,000,000
76,000,000
62,000,000
80,000,000
Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial
94 75 57 39 20
Born in the U.S.A Today’s Agenda
Forces Reshaping The Future of Virginia’s Cities
1
What To Do Next
2
3
Future Forward Assumptions
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Quality
of Life
67%
65%
64%
47%
46%
46%
42%
35%
17%
21%
23%
24%
35%
30%
29%
27%
31%
37%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Quality education at all levels
Safety & security of citizens
Access to quality medical care
Trained, educated, adaptable workforce
Support & services for the olderpopulation
Protection of the environment
Affordable housing
Transportation system
Entertainment, culture & recreation
Residents’ Importance
Overall Importance To Community
Tier 1
Q4. The following is a list of values or expectations that could guide long-term planning for your community.
For each one, please rate how important you believe it should be in future planning efforts for your
community.
78%
70%
67%
62%
54%
45%
38%
41%
36%
20%
24%
27%
32%
37%
43%
41%
36%
38%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Quality education at all levels
Safety & security of citizens
Trained, educated, adaptable workforce
Access to quality medical care
Transportation system
Affordable housing
Entertainment, culture & recreation
Protection of the environment
Support & services for the older population
Business Leaders
Overall Importance To Community
Q4. The following is a list of values or expectations that could guide long-term planning for your community.
For each one, please rate how important you believe it should be in future planning efforts for your
community.
Tier 1
We Assume These
Core Needs/Desires
Will Drive
Our Communities
For the Next
20-30 Years
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But Our Core Needs Will Be
Satisfied By A New Reality
Quality of education
Healthcare
Transportation
Workforce
Access to healthcare
Affordable housing
Safety and security of citizens
Entertainment , cultural, and
recreational
Protection of the environment
Senior Services
Trends 2030
Today’s Agenda
Forces Reshaping The Future of Virginia’s Cities
1
What To Do Next
2
3
Future Forward Assumptions
Shift #1
Increasing
Population
U.S Population
307 Million
Source: U. S. Census Reports
Today
405 Million
2050
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U.S Population
307 Million
Source: U. S. Census Reports
Today
405 Million
2050 22% Population Growth
2010-2030
8.0 M
2010
8.9 M
2020
9.8 M
2030
Virginia’s Total Population Growth
22%
Source: Virginia Employment Commission,
Copyright by the Creative Commons Copyright
80% of Virginia’s
population
growth will be
in the Crescent
7 in 10 Virginians now live in the GC
Your Future
A Growing
Resident
Base. Two
States of
Virginia
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Your Future
More People.
Additional
Housing Needs.
Shift #2
Shifting Population
Footprint
RVA Housing Demand by 2030
2010 housing stock 421,227*
2030 additional
housing units needed 112,842**
5,642 per year needed for 20 years
*2010 U.S. Census
** Extrapolated from 2010 to 2030
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Shift to
Urban
Living
Current Trend Long-term Trend
Shift to
Urban
Villages
“Urban Villages” of the Future - Edge Cities ?
The dark blue
areas show the
highest growth,
where the light
yellow areas
represent no
growth or an actual
decrease in
population.
Sources: US
Census Bureau and
Synergos
Technologies, Inc.
Kids/College
Student
Marriage
Career
First House
Children at Home
Second House
Retire
20 30 40 50 60 70
GI & Silent Generations lived linear lives
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Life Stages of Boomers
45 50 55 60 65
Grandparent
Entrepreneur
Empty Nester
Single Again
Parent
Retired
Caregiver
Even with
a debilitating
illness,
9 in 10 Boomers want to
age in community
Source: 2010 ODP Study
Copyright by the Creative Commons Copyright
Active
Grand-
parenting
Active
Work
past 65
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Active
Legacy
Building
Civic Engagement
Volunteering
“Home
for Life”
…
Stay In
Control
Millennials 1983-2001
11-29
88% Gen Ys want to be
in an urban setting “
Source: RCLCO
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Younger
Generations
“Work To Live”
……
9-5 Work
Schedules
Digital
Natives
Source: 2008 ComScore Online Automobile Insurance Report.
Walkable
Urban
Transit-
oriented
50%
1978
16 75%
1978
17 86%
1978
18
31% 49%
68%
2008 2008 2008
% of U.S Pop With Driver’s License
Source: USDOT
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Question: How important to you is it to have your own vehicle?
63% 63%
Gen Y
75%
Boomers Gen X
Rate “5”
Very
important
Rate “4”
40%
23%
46%
17%
60%
15%
Question: How difficult would it be to manage and conduct
your daily activities without a vehicle?
46% 59%
Gen Y
67%
Boomers Gen X
Rate “5”
Very
Difficult
Rate “4”
25%
21%
36%
23%
44%
23%
An
Integrated
System
Car Free
Living
Possible
Your Future
Urban Areas
Growing with
Young & Old
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Shift #3
Graying
of Virginia
In the U.S.
the population
over age 65
will grow from
40 million today to
72 million by 2031
Copyright by the Creative Commons Copyright
2000
U.S. Population 65+
Source: US Census
11%
2030
19%
2020
16%
2010
13%
2040
20%
2000
Virginia’s Population 65+
11%
2030
19%
2020
16%
2010
13%
Source: US Census
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Aging
Touches
Every
Aspect of
Service
Quality of education
Healthcare
Transportation
Workforce
Access to healthcare
Affordable housing
Safety and security of
citizens
Entertainment, cultural,
and recreational
Senior Services
Age In Place
1 Home Builders
Are Getting Age Ready
2 New In-Home Services
Are Getting Age Ready
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3 Hospitals
Are Getting Age Ready
4 Pharmacies
Are Getting Age Ready
5 Car Companies
Are Getting Age
Ready
6 Retailers
Are Getting Age Ready
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Your Future
Older
Resident
Base
Your Future
Older
Employee
Base
Shift #4
Increasingly
Diverse
Population
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Black or African American
1,628,716
2 ,069,710
Asian
423,144
782,629
Hispanic
530,708
995,545
American Indian / Alaska Native
23,179
22,626
2010
2030
2010
2030
2010
2030
+27%
+85%
+88%
21% of 2030 pop.
10% of 2030 pop.
8% of 2030 pop.
Virginia’s Non-White Population 2010-2030
2010
2030 -2%
<1% of 2030 pop.
2030 The Minority Will Become
the Majority of Children (18 & Under)
Source: U.S. Census
2047 The Minority Will
Become the Majority
Source: U.S. Census
1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01
10,000,000
28,000,000
76,000,000 75,000,000
81,000,000
Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial
94 75 57 39 20
Current U.S.
Census Data
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Generations Matter
61% 19% Gen Y 4% 13%
White Hispanic Asian Black
62% 18% 6% 12%
73% 10% 4% 11%
80% 7% 4% 8%
Gen X
Boomers
Silent
Your Future
Greater
Cultural
Divide
56% of Young People
(Under 18)
Today’s Generational Culture Gap
24 Points
80% of Seniors
Whites represent . . .
Politics of The Issue
Resistant to taxes
and public spending
beyond
transportation
Minority
Population Senior
Population Tends to view
government
education, health, and
social-welfare
programs as helpful
support for their
children
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Politics of The Issue
62% Want Big
Government
Minority
Population
Senior
Population
62% Don’t Want
Big
Government
2030 Population
20% US Population
Minority
Youth
Senior
Population
20% US Population
Your Future
Appreciation
of A Shared
Destiny Will Be
Critical To
Support the Youth
Your Future
Organizing Your
Boomer Volunteer
Army To Help
With Your School
System
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Shift #5
Greening Of Society
Green is
Mainstream:
80%
think or act
“Green” Copyright by the Creative Commons Copyright
1 in 3 would be more inclined
to work for a “green” company.
6 in 10 think their current employer should be doing
more to be environmentally responsible.
Your Future
Leverage
Sustainability
Through
Partnerships
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Today’s Agenda
Forces Reshaping The Future of Virginia’s Cities
1
What To Do Next
2
3
Future Forward Assumptions Change Is Constant
You Don’t Need A
30 Year Plan.
You Need Future Forward
Insights To Advance The
Conversation.
www.richmondfuture.org
Key Future Drivers What are the key
drivers that will make
Richmond a world class
community in 2030?
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What are the top key drivers that will make Richmond a world class community in 2030?
How can the Richmond area capitalize on its status as Virginia’s state capital?
How can innovation in health care drive economic development in the region?
How can the Richmond area’s educational institutions, at all levels, establish effective STEM programs
that will give the region a competitive advantage in developing and retaining a globally competitive
workforce?
How can the Richmond area capitalize on the logistics innovations occurring in Hampton Roads, at
Fort Lee and with companies such as CarMax and MeadWestvaco?
How can Richmond’s diverse arts and cultural organizations contribute even more effectively to the
quality of life and appeal of the region?
How can philanthropy in the region be even more effective in addressing the factors that limit the
opportunities of individuals and communities?
How can the entire region take advantage of the planned growth of Fort Lee?
How can history become a driver of tourism in the area and link Richmond to Charlottesville and
Williamsburg?
What are the major enhancements, including high speed rail and the expansion of the ports of Hampton
Roads, which can be made to the transportation system in central Virginia?
What are the businesses in the next 20 years that will create sustainable, high paying jobs that will
make our region globally competitive? And what should we be doing to grasp this future?
Thank You
John Martin [email protected]