The College Advantage: Weathering The Economic Storm By: Anthony P. Carnevale, Tamara Jayasundera, Ban Cheah

August 15, 2012

Overview •  Almost half of the jobs lost in the recession have been

recovered, and virtually all of those jobs required some form of postsecondary education.

•  The wage advantage for workers with a Bachelor’s degree or better over high school has remained high.

•  The wage premium for Bachelor’s degrees or better relative to high school degrees skyrocketed from 44 percent in 1981 to 100 percent in 2005. It has only fallen to 97 percent since the beginning of the recession.

Unemployment rates for college graduates have stayed low relative to those with a high school diploma

Bachelor’s  degree   High  school  diploma  

All  graduates     4.5   9.4  

Recent  graduates   6.8   24  

Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older.

Workers with a high school diploma or less bore the brunt of the recession’s job losses

Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older. * Recession – The period from December 2007 to January 2010. ** Recovery – The period from January 2010 to February 2012. *** Net Change – The period from December 2007 to February 2012.  

Educa4on  A7ainment  Job  Change  

Recession*   Recovery**   Net  Change***  

 High  School  or  Less   -­‐5,611,000   -­‐230,000   -­‐5,841,000  

 Some  College/AA  degree   -­‐1,752,000   1,592,000   -­‐160,000  

 BA  degree  or  beGer   187,000   2,012,000   2,199,000  

 All   -­‐7,176,000   3,374,000   -­‐3,802,000  

The growth in employment in the past two decades has been entirely due to increases in college-educated workers

-­‐4%  -­‐14%  

41%   42%  

74%  82%  

-­‐20%  

0%  

20%  

40%  

60%  

80%  

100%  Jan-­‐89  

Jan-­‐90  

Jan-­‐91  

Jan-­‐92  

Jan-­‐93  

Jan-­‐94  

Jan-­‐95  

Jan-­‐96  

Jan-­‐97  

Jan-­‐98  

Jan-­‐99  

Jan-­‐00  

Jan-­‐01  

Jan-­‐02  

Jan-­‐03  

Jan-­‐04  

Jan-­‐05  

Jan-­‐06  

Jan-­‐07  

Jan-­‐08  

Jan-­‐09  

Jan-­‐10  

Jan-­‐11  

Jan-­‐12  

Percen

t  cha

nge  in  employmen

t  from  

Jan.1989  (%

)  

Recession  

High  school  or  less  

Associate's  degree  or  some  college  

Bachelor's  degree  or  beGer  

Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1989-2012). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older.

Earnings of workers with a Bachelor’s degree or better are still nearly twice that of high school educated workers

54%  

44%  

100%  

97%  

40%  

50%  

60%  

70%  

80%  

90%  

100%  

1970  

1971  

1972  

1973  

1974  

1975  

1976  

1977  

1978  

1979  

1980  

1981  

1982  

1983  

1984  

1985  

1986  

1987  

1988  

1989  

1990  

1991  

1992  

1993  

1994  

1995  

1996  

1997  

1998  

1999  

2000  

2001  

2002  

2003  

2004  

2005  

2006  

2007  

2008  

2009  

2010  

College  earnings  p

remium  (in  pe

rcen

t)  

Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1970-2010). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older.

College enrollment for Fall 2010 exceeded the projection by 12 percent

Source:  Total  fall  enrollment  in  all  postsecondary  degree-­‐granPng  insPtuPons  is  obtained  from  Integrated  Postsecondary  Educa1on  Data  System  (IPEDS)  data  made  available  through  the  U.S.  Department  of  EducaPon.    

Actual,  21,016  

Projected,  18,746  

14,000  

15,000  

16,000  

17,000  

18,000  

19,000  

20,000  

21,000  

22,000  

1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010  

Postsecond

ary  en

rollm

ent  (in  th

ousand

s)  

Actual  

Projected  

Postsecondary enrollment skyrocketed in the recession and has plummeted since then

4.3%  

1.2%  

6.9%  

2.9%  

-­‐2%  

0%  

2%  

4%  

6%  

8%  

10%  

1966  1968  1970  1972  1974  1976  1978  1980  1982  1984  1986  1988  1990  1992  1994  1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  2006  2008  2010  

Recession   Fall  enrollment  gorwth  rate  

Source: Total fall enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions is obtained from Digest of Education Statistics 2011, published by the National Center for Education Statistics.

Since the recession, male postsecondary enrollment has grown faster than female enrollment

Source:  Total  fall  enrollment  in  all  postsecondary  degree-­‐granPng  insPtuPons  is  obtained  from  Digest  of  Educa1on  Sta1s1cs  2011,  published  by  the  NaPonal  Center  for  EducaPon  StaPsPcs.  

3.5%  

7.1%  

4.9%  

6.8%  

0%  

1%  

2%  

3%  

4%  

5%  

6%  

7%  

8%  

2002   2009  

Posts

econ

dary

enro

llmen

t gro

wth

rate

Male  

Female  

Conclusion •  The rate of college enrollment jumped sharply,

peaking in 2009, but has fallen off rapidly since then. •  The recession was a college wake-up-call for men. •  After lagging behind for decades, since 2006, the rate

of increase in male enrollment has caught up and slightly surpassed the rate of increase in female enrollment.

For more information: See the full report at: cew.georgetown.edu/CollegeAdvantage/  

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