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The Collapse of Collective Security, The Rise of NewBalance of PowerBy : Algamar A. Latiph (April 2006)

AFragileWorld

ContrarytoSamuelHuntingtonsthesisofclashofcivilizations,wedidnotwitnessa

clashbetweentheWestandtheMuslimWord,atleast,onDenmarkscaricature.At

most,itcausedoutragedinthestreets,economicboycottofDanishproducts.Ratherit

isaclashwithintheWestCivilization.IntheIraqInvasionin2003,thedividedWest

respectivelyformedtheiralliancesagainstoneanotherforwarandfordiplomacy.

AntagonismoccurredbetweentheCoalitionoftheWilingledbyUnitedStatesalong

withUnitedKingdom,Spanish,Italy,Australiaanddozensstates,ononehand,againsttheFrance-Germanysmini-alliance,ontheotherhand.Theformerespouseswar

whilethelatteradvocatesdiplomacy.Theopposingcoalitionsweredrivennotforthe

loveofpeaceneitherfreedombutoftheirinsatiablecompetingmaterialandstrategic

gainsinIraq.

WhereastheWestisdividedforbeingprotectionistoftheirnationalinterests,the

ArabsandtheMuslimWorldaremoredividedbysheerjealousyorhypocrisyorby

plainselfishness.TheArabLeagueandtheOrganisationofIslamicConference,devoid

ofsecuritycomponent,havenotplayedanymajorroleinrecentworldaffairs.While

the116countriesoftheNon-AlignedNationsandthe52countriesinAfricahadexplicitlyopposedanddenouncedtheuseofmilitaryinIraq;sevenArabcountries,

SaudiArabia,Kuwait,BahrainSaudi,Jordan,UnitedArabEmirates,Qatar,andOman

joinedtheUS-ledcoalitionthatattackedtheirneighbor,Iraq.Andfurtherinvalidate

HuntingtonsclashbetweenCivilizations.

Wearenowinanerawherethemostpowerfulnation,theUS,wielditspower

uponIraq,unilaterally,inpursuitofanationalgoalandinrejectionofcollective

security.DespiteoftheconfidentandcrouchinggiantChina,Indiasraisingeconomy

andmilitarypower,Russiasreassertionofitsformerposition,andJapansincreasing

militarismarefragmentedpowerswhichhavenotraiseseriouschallengetoUSprovocationofunilateralisminIraq.ThisholdsinthecaseofFrance-Germanys

informalcoalitioninIraqWar.

TheendoftheColdWaranditsswiftshifttoglobalizationparadigmhasseemingly

broughttheworldasustainablepeace.Butacloserlookofrecentevents,acontrary

conclusionwouldsurface.WewillseeafragileanduncertainworldresultingfromUS

unilateralismanditswillingnesstoabandoncollectivesecurity.

TheBushDoctrine

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Pres.Bushspronouncementisnotameresoundbiteratheritfirmlyrestsona

declaredforeignpolicy.Americawillimplementitsstrategiesbyorganizing

coalitionsasbroadaspracticableofstatesableandwillingtopromoteabalanceofpowerthatfavorsfreedomthatcanaugmentpermanentinstitutions(UnitedNations

andNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizations),Pres.Bushhaddeclared,amongothers,on

September2002.ThishasbecomeknownastheBushDoctrine.

Aftersixmonths,thetheoreticaldoctrinewasputintoaction.Whenitbecame

evidentthatnomilitaryactionwillbeauthorizedinIraq,inviewofFrancesexpected

veto,Non-PermanentMemberGermanyandSyriasnovotes andRussiaand

Chinasanticipatedabstention,USorganizedtheCoalitionoftheWillingthatinvaded

IraqinMarch2003therebyrejectingmultilateraleffortsunderthesystemof

collectivesecurityasameansofenforcingpeace.

TheBushDoctrineanditsactualapplicationhadputforwardatwo-foldforeign

policy.First,USwillseekSecurityCouncil,atfirstopportunity,onissuesaffecting

worldpeaceandsecurity,and,second,shouldnomilitaryactionisauthorized,itwill

organizeacoalitiontoperformthedutylegitimatelyvestedintheSecurityCouncil.

ATaleofTwoTraditions

CollectivesecuritywasenshrinedintheLeagueofNationsin1919uponthe

insistenceofPres.WilsonaftertheendofWorldWarI.Thissystemwasreaffirmedinthe1946CharteroftheUNwhichfor60yearshadsavedtheworldfromthebrinkof

nuclearwarintheColdWarera,italsopreventedamajorwaramongGreatPowers.In

abandoningcollectivesecurityinfurtheranceofitsnationalinterest,theUShad

returnedtoPres.TheodoreRooseveltstatecraftofspeaklouderandcarryabigstick

andbloodandironforeignpolicyadvocatedbyBismarck.

Asapplied,theDoctrineistendingtowardrealismwhichconsideredmoralityand

ethicshavenoplaceinstatesrelationswithotherstates.InhisPoliticsAmong

Nations,HansMorgenthau,opinedananarchicworldorderwhereInternational

Politics,likeallpolitics,isastruggleforpower.Whatevertheultimateaimsof

internationalpolitics,powerisalwaystheimmediateaimandthepursuitofnational

interestdeterminestheconductofthestate,itisitsend.Corollarily,Bismarcks

realpolitikwhich,accordingtoHenryKissinger,issynonymoustoCardinal

Richelieusraisondeetatisapolicythatassertsthatnationalinterestofthestate

justifiedwhatevermeanswereemployedtopursueit.Force,therefore,isjustifiedas

themeanstoattainstatesnationalgoal.

ThisiswhatPres.TheodoreRooseveltpracticedandthisispreciselywhattheBush

Doctrineembraced.Inapplication,duringtheincumbencyofPres.Roosevelt,theUS

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MultilateralismandUnilateralism

Whenthereisathreattopeace,theBigFiveoftheSecurityCouncil(US,UK,Russia,

France,andChina)mustbeinagreementwiththesupportofatleastfouroutofthetenNon-PermanentMemberstoauthorizetheuseofforceforthemaintenanceof

peace.Likedemocracy,theessenceofSecurityCouncilisrepresentation.Inthecaseof

theNon-PermanentMembers,theirmembershipisbasedonregionalrepresentation

fromtheSevenContinentsandaredulyelectedbytheGeneralAssemblyforaterm.

TheBigFivesrepresentation,however,emanatesfromtheirabilityandcommitment

tocarryoutpeaceowingtotheirmilitarystrength.

Collectivesecurityrecognizesnosuperiorityofanystateneithersubordinationof

interestbyoneormorestates.Theuseofforceistotallydiscardedasameansto

pursueonesnationalinterestasopposedtowhatrealpolitikadvocates.Onlythruasharedsenseofjusticeandcommoninterestbytherepresentedworldandthruthe

processofdebatesandconsensuscanamilitaryactionbecarriedout.Whenthe

SecurityCouncilauthorizedtheUS-ledGulfWarinIraq(becauseofitsaggressionin

Kuwait)in1991andin2002Afghanistan(becauseofitsAl-Qaedaandterrorist

sponsorshipof911)theuseofforcewasjustifiedandwasalegitimateexercisedfor

thepreservationofworldpeace,ruleoflawprevailed.

Unfortunately,thisisnotwhathappenedinIraqin2003asUS,inpursuitof

nationalinterest,actedunilaterallyafterorganizingtheCoalitionoftheWilling

therebydesertingthemultilateraleffortsintheSecurityCouncil.ThisisnotthefirstUSdeviationfromSecurityCouncilsconsensus,aswrotebyMerlinM.Magallonathat

ThemoreobviousdepartureofUSpolicyformtheconceptofinternationallawiswell

known.TheopeninvasionofGranada,thebombingofLibya,andtheaggression

againstNicaraguaareactsofdepravitywhichhavenoplaceinacivilizedworld.

HenryKissinger12yearsagopointedoutthat:Theweaknessofcollectivesecurity

isthattheinterestsarerarelyuniform,andthatsecurityisrarelyseamless.Members

ofageneralsystemofcollectivesecurityarethereforemorelikelytoagreeoninaction

thanonjointaction;theyeitherbeheldtogetherbyglitteringgeneralities;ormay

witnessthedefectionofthemostpowerfulmember,whofeelsthemostsecureand

thereforeleastneedsthesystem.

Unilateralismisdevoidofdemocraticvaluesofrepresentation,legitimacy,

consensus,andruleofmajoritywhicharecoreprinciplesofcollectivesecurity.After

theendoftheColdWar,wedonotfeelathreatofwarofgreatmagnitudeamong

nations.Infact60yearswasthelongestpeacetheEuropehaseverexperiencedsince

the16th

century.Ithasbeeninstrumentalinthemaintenanceoftranquilityinthe

worldbutnowitsefficacyhasbeenreceding.

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overthekingsofEuropean.Thenation-statesbecametheactiveactorsintheworld

affairs.Whatfollowedwereformationofalliancesamongandbetweennation-states

inEuropeforself-preservationandtocreateanequilibriumofforcesagainstarisinga

hegemonicneighbor.

In17th

to18th

centuryalone,UKhadorganizedatleastfouralliancesagainstFrance

whichthenwasthedomineeringpowerintheContinentofEurope.Thelastonewas

duringthereignofKingWilliamIII,wheretheGrandAlliance(UK,Spain,Sweden,

Savoy,Saxony,Austria,andTheNetherlands)successfullyquashedFrancesKing

LouiseXIV.Thisbalanceofpowerwasreaffirmedin1814bytheQuadrupleAlliance

(UK,Prussia,Russia,andAustria)todefeatNapoleonBonapartesadvancingarmies.

Balanceofpowerischaracterizedbylackofpermanencyofalliancessincetheywere

formedatmomentsnationalinterest.IntheCrimeanWarin1852,FranceandUK

werealliesagainstRussiabut30yearsbeforethatFrancewasatwarwithUK,RussiaasUKsallyduringNapoleonicWarsin1814.

Inthosecenturies,seriesofallianceswereformed,thus,creatingabalanceofpower

ondifferentoccasionsandbyvariousstatessincenationalinterestshadneverbeen

uniform.Therewerenofixeddemarcationofterritorialboundariesamongstatesas

theyconstantlyshrinkorexpandthroughbloodywars.Everystateisapreybythe

predatorymilitarymightofitsneighboringstates,aDarwinismnormswheresurvival

ofthefittestandeliminationoftheunfitistheconductofstatescompetinginterests.

Butwhysummonachaoticinternationalsysteminaworldwhichisontheapexof

peaceandeconomicharmony,whereboundariesamongstatesaremoreorlessattainedtheirpermanency,andwherealmostallstatesareestablishedbythe

sovereignpeople.

TheNewBalanceofPower

ThesystemofbalanceofpowerwasfirstrecognizedintheUtrechtTreatyin1713

thatendedthe12-yearWaronSpanishSuccession.UtrechtagreedToconfirmthe

peaceandtranquilityoftheChristianworldtoajustequilibriumofpowerwhilethe

BushDoctrineputforwardabalanceofpowerthatfavorsfreedom.Almostacentury

ago,Pres.WilsonexpressedhisabhorrencetothissystemdeclaringthatTheremustbenotabalanceofpower,butcommunityofpower;nororganizedrivalries,butan

organizedcommonpeace.WhiletheBushDoctrinespretextistopromote

democracy;Utrechtwasagenuineaffirmationofmaintainingpeace.Peculiarly,

UtrechtendedawarwhiletheBushDoctrinewasdeclaredasapreludetoawar(Iraq

wasinvadedbytheCoalitionoftheWilling6monthsafterthedeclarationoftheBush

Doctrine).

Theonlygratuitythatcanbesaidofbalanceofpoweristhatitprevented

dominationofasin le owerinEuro e France UK Austria andRussia .At resent

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coalitionistomakeitappearthattheIraqWarisamultilateraleffortsofvarious

statesandtoimbibeitsmilitaryactionwithdegreeoflegitimacy.Thatitissupported

by40countriesalbeitconsiderablyminoritycomparedtothemorethan200

countriesofUN.Curiously,however,astudyentitled CoalitionoftheWillingorCoalitionoftheCoerced?releasedonFebruary26,2003bytheInstituteofPolicy

StudiesbasedinWashingtonhasfoundthattherationaleofmostofthecountrieswho

joinedthecoalition,includingthePhilippines,wasbecauseoftheirdependencyforUS

protection,economic,developmentalandmilitaryaids.Inthislight,itwouldappear

thatthecoalitionisameresuperficialasitisnotconsistsofwillingstatesbut

compelledstates.

Insum,thebalanceofpowermentionedintheBushDoctrineandasappliedinthe

IraqInvasionin2003isnotthebalanceofpoweroftheOldofEurope.Wedidnotsee

conglomerationofopposingforces,ratherthecoalitionhadbeenutilizedasthelegitimizingentitythatseekstorivaltheSecurityCouncil.Thenewbalanceofpower

isanorganizedrivalrynotofpowersbutoflegitimacy.

TheSecurityCouncilistheinstitutionthatlegitimizetheuseofforceagainstother

statestowhichtheUSmustsubmitshouldituseforceuponotherstateforthe

preservationandespeciallyfortheenforcementofitsResolution.Thisisits

internationalobligationbutseenbyitasanimpositionandalimitationofitsfreedom

toact,freedomtopursueitsnationalinterest.Thismightbethecauseofits

abandonmentofSecurityCouncil.

Ontheotherhand,anotherconclusioncanbehad.Onthetheorysubmittedby

KennethK.WaltzinhisTheoryofInternationalPolitics(1979)wherehewrotethat

inbalanceofpowertheStatesareregardedasunitaryactorswho,ataminimum,

seektheirpreservationand,atamaximum,driveforuniversaldomination.By

relatingWaltzsthesiswecoulddeducedthatUSadoptionofbalanceofpoweris

manifestlynotmotivatedbyself-preservationbut provokedbyitsdrivefor

universaldomination.

TheLoomingConfrontation

TheIraqInvasionin2003mightnotbethelastunilateralaction.Thenuclearrow

betweenIranandUSisatensionthatmightendupinmilitaryconfrontation.USis

firmthatitwillnotallowIrantopursueitsnuclearambitionarguingthatitisathreat

toitssecurity.However,eitherbydesignornaturalcause,Iranisnowsharingits

boundarieswithhostileterritories:Iraqandontheeast,Afghanistan,bothunderUSs

effectivemilitarycontrol.Despiteoftheseodds,however,Iranhasnotindicatedthatit

willbackdown.

Whileinvasionisremote,militarystrikeisprobable.InfactwhenIranannounced

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theArabLeagueandtheOICwouldremainedthesameinutileentityonthisissue

situatedwithintheirbackyards.Itwillsurelydestabilizetheregionandmightpossibly

involveamilitarytensionwithintheMiddleEastcountries.Wedonotsee,however,

thatitwillonlyaffecttheregionalsecurityoftheMiddleEast.Itwillscaretheglobalizeworldonitsinsatiableoilneeds.Asof2000,Iranwithits813.3trillioncubic

feetofnaturalgasreserveisthelargestintheregionandfifthwithitsreserveofcrude

oilof89.7billionbarrels.

LockesSocialContract,HobbesStateofNature

ItisironicalthatwhileSocialContractofJohnLockeisfullyacceptedbytheWest

asthefoundationofdemocracywhereequalityandlibertyareprotectedand

promotedthereisnocorrespondingSocialContractamongnationswhereequality

andjusticeareupheldandcompulsory.TheUN,thruSecurityCouncil,couldhavebeenthebodytoprovideteethforenforcementofInternationalLaw.Theessenceoflawis

thatitmustbeenforcedobjectively,impartiallyandequallyinordertoattainthe

justiceimbuedinthelawbutwhichtheSecurityCouncilisincapableofapplyingasit

isstillsuccumbedtotheruleofmightnottotheruleoflaw.

SovietssubjugationofAfghanistan,USinvasionofGranada,UKinvasionof

Falklands,IsraeldisregardofnumerousSecurityCouncilsResolutions,amongothers,

hadleftUNsittingatbay,irrelevant.UNinherentlimitationhas recentlybecome

patentthatUSsbigandhardstickisstrongerthanthedemocraticcollective

security.ThisfurthershowedUNsirrelevanceintheworldpeacebecauseUS,alone,canaddressinternationalconflictbasedonitsstandard,underitstermsandalwayson

thebasisofitsnationalinterest.

IftheSecurityCouncilisnotcapableofapplyingitsCharterjustly,thenthereisno

ruleoflawafterallasjusticeisnowdefinedbythosewhohavepowers.Consequently,

ourchaoticworldfallswithinThomasHobbessdescriptionofstateofnaturea

situationwhereThenotionsofrightandwrong,justiceandinjusticehavethereno

place.Wherethereisnocommonpower,thereisnolaw,wherenolaw,nojustice.

Force,andfraud,areinwarthecardinalvirtues.AtleastHobbeshasrecognizedthat

commonpowercouldtemperthemisuseandabuseofpower.Necessarily,the

collapseofcommonpower(collectivesecurity)vestedintheSecurityCouncilhas

putforceandfraudinthewordsofHobbesthecardinalvirtues.

TheUSParadoxofIdealismandRealism

Wilsoniantraditionseekstopromoteandpursuetwokindsofruleoflaw:intrastate

andinter-state.Thefirstistopromoteruleoflawwithinstateand,second,topromote

ruleoflawamongnationsbyvirtueofcollectivesecurity.Bothareinadherenceto

democraticpreceptsofrepresentation,consensus,andequality.Bothdespiseanarchy

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hasnoplaceintherelativelypeacefulworld,thisisthetimewheretheUShasto

reaffirmandreassertitsleadershipundertheWilsoniantraditionthatpowerwould

yieldtomoralityandtheforceofarmstothedictatesofpublicopinion.

Thereexistthreatstothehumankind.Theglobalwarmingwilldecayour

environment,terrorismandpandemicbroughtusterriblefears,povertythatkills

millions,amongothers,areissuesthatrequiresstrongcooperationamongthe

communityofnations.Unilateralismisasystemthatwillfurthersplitthespiritof

cooperationandfurtherdistanceharmoniousrelationswithintheinternational

community.Unfortunately,thisisnotthecase,atleastatpresent.The IBM

advertisementcanbestdescribedUSforeignpolicy,thus,Imnotlikeeverybody

elseunusual,unrivalled,unexpected,uncommon,orthemovieMatildawhere

DannydeVitothreatenedhisdaughterImbig,youresmall;Imsmart,youredumb;

andyoucannotdoanythingaboutit.