The Climate Change The Climate Change ChallengeChallenge

Sound Waters Sound Waters February 4, 2006February 4, 2006

The Climate Change The Climate Change ChallengeChallenge

Sound Waters Sound Waters February 4, 2006February 4, 2006

Dr. Richard GammonDr. Richard GammonProfessor of Chemistry, Oceanography, Professor of Chemistry, Oceanography,

Atmospheric Science (Adj)Atmospheric Science (Adj)Co-Director, Program on the EnvironmentCo-Director, Program on the Environment

University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington

Dr. Richard GammonDr. Richard GammonProfessor of Chemistry, Oceanography, Professor of Chemistry, Oceanography,

Atmospheric Science (Adj)Atmospheric Science (Adj)Co-Director, Program on the EnvironmentCo-Director, Program on the Environment

University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington

CLIMATE COLLAPSE The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare

CLIMATE COLLAPSE The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare

Extensive recent coverage in national weeklies Extensive recent coverage in national weeklies and monthliesand monthliesExtensive recent coverage in national weeklies Extensive recent coverage in national weeklies and monthliesand monthlies

“W ha t is no w p lai n is th a t the em iss io n o f gre e nh o u s e

g as e s…. is c au s in g gl o ba l w armi n g a t a ra te t ha t beg a n a s

s ig ni f ica n t , ha s b ec ome a larmi n g , a n d i s s imp ly

u ns u st ain a bl e in t h e lon g term .

A n d by long- term , I d o n o t m e an c en tur ie s ah e ad . I mea n

w ith in the l ife t im e o f m y c hi ldre n ce rt a in ly ; an d p o ss ib ly

w ith in m y ow n .

A n d by u ns u st ai n ab le , I do no t mea n a p hen o men o n c au s in g

pr o bl e m s o f ad ju st men t. I m e an a c ha lle n ge s o f ar-rea ch in g

in it s im p a ct a nd irre ve rs ib le in i ts de st ru ct ive p o wer , t h a t it

a lt e r s r a di ca ll y hum a n e x ist e nc e . ”

P rim e M ini st er T on y B la ir S ep tem b er 15 , 200 4

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program

> 100 Nations (Including all Industrialized Nations) have Accepted these Findings

www.ipcc.ch

Main Findings of IPCCMain Findings of IPCC

Climate change is underway and the Climate change is underway and the early impacts are already visible.early impacts are already visible.

Climate impacts over the next 100 Climate impacts over the next 100 years will be much more significant years will be much more significant than over the past 100 years.than over the past 100 years.

Natural systems are the most Natural systems are the most vulnerable because of their vulnerable because of their sensitivity to climate and limited sensitivity to climate and limited capacity to adapt.capacity to adapt.

Physical signal: observed changes Physical signal: observed changes in ice and snow coverin ice and snow cover

Duration ofDuration of ice cover on rivers and ice cover on rivers and lakes has decreasedlakes has decreased by 2.5 weeks by 2.5 weeks over the last century in mid- & over the last century in mid- & high latitude areashigh latitude areas

Arctic sea ice lossArctic sea ice loss in area (10 - in area (10 - 15%) and thickness (40%) over 15%) and thickness (40%) over the last half century.the last half century.

Decline in snow coverDecline in snow cover (10%) for N (10%) for N hemisphere since 1960hemisphere since 1960

World-wide retreat in alpine glaciersWorld-wide retreat in alpine glaciers over last centuryover last century

Widespread changes in permafrostWidespread changes in permafrostIPCC

South Cascade Glacier, South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 1928 and 2000 South Cascade Glacier, South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 1928 and 2000

Source: OSTP

Carbon dioxide: up32%

Main Findings of IPCCMain Findings of IPCC More frequent, intense weather extremes and More frequent, intense weather extremes and

severe impacts expected. “Surprises” are severe impacts expected. “Surprises” are possible. possible.

Developing countries and poor communities Developing countries and poor communities in developed countries are most vulnerable.in developed countries are most vulnerable.

Adaptation can reduce impacts, but it’s costly Adaptation can reduce impacts, but it’s costly and some damages are inevitable.and some damages are inevitable.

Win-win options existWin-win options exist, , if action is swift.if action is swift.

IPCC

Observed vs. modeled temperature riseObserved vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860since 1860

21st century temperature change

IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)

Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050sProjected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s

The projected change is compared to the present day with a ~1% increase per year in equivalent COThe projected change is compared to the present day with a ~1% increase per year in equivalent CO 22

Source: The Met Office. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research

Sea-Level RiseSea-Level Rise Ocean Shores, WA

Thermal expansion and glacier/icecap meltingThermal expansion and glacier/icecap melting

4 to 8 inches over the last century4 to 8 inches over the last century

IPCC projects 4 to 35 inches this centuryIPCC projects 4 to 35 inches this century

Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-lying areaslying areas

Thermal expansion and glacier/icecap meltingThermal expansion and glacier/icecap melting

4 to 8 inches over the last century4 to 8 inches over the last century

IPCC projects 4 to 35 inches this centuryIPCC projects 4 to 35 inches this century

Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-lying areaslying areas

Costs of extreme weather eventsCosts of extreme weather events

IPCC

PNW trends, expected impacts

Source for PNW impacts:Source for PNW impacts:UW Climate Impacts GroupUW Climate Impacts Grouphttp://tao.atmos.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/

Source for PNW impacts:Source for PNW impacts:UW Climate Impacts GroupUW Climate Impacts Grouphttp://tao.atmos.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/

Temperature trends in the PNWTemperature trends in the PNW

113 stations with 113 stations with long recordslong records

Almost every Almost every station shows station shows warmingwarming

Urbanization not a Urbanization not a major source of major source of warmingwarming

Trends in timing of spring snowmelt (1948-2000)

Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan Cayan

+20d later–20d earlier

Temperature Precipitation summer winter summer winter low +3.1°F +3.2 °F -7% -2%

mean +4.7 °F +5.2 °F +2% +9% high +6.7 °F +6.7 °F +9% +22%

Warmer, wetter winters.

Warmer summers.

Estimated climate change from 20th century to the 2040s using 8 climate model scenarios (“summer”=April-September, “winter” = October-March).

Climate change in the PNWClimate change in the PNW

The Main The Main Impact: Impact: Less SnowLess Snow

April 1 Columbia Basin Snow Extent

~ 2045 Historical Average ~ 2025

Snowpack lossSnowpack loss

Western Western Washingon Washingon and Oregon and Oregon are especially are especially sensitivesensitive

Snowpack lossSnowpack loss

Western Western Washingon Washingon and Oregon and Oregon are especially are especially sensitivesensitive

Municipal water supplyMunicipal water supply

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Cedar Current ClimateCedar pcm3dec4Cedar echam4dec4Cedar had2dec4Cedar had3dec4

• More winter streamflow• Less spring/summer streamflow

For western Washington rivers (Sultan, Tolt, Cedar, Green) in the 2040s:

Winter: +30 to 40%

Summer: -20 to –30%

The pine beetle has destroyed an The pine beetle has destroyed an area over twice as big as area over twice as big as Vancouver Island; $4.2 billion in Vancouver Island; $4.2 billion in timber losses -timber losses - BC Ministry of ForestsBC Ministry of Forests

Climate disruption and forest healthClimate disruption and forest health

Rise in disturbances due to warm winters, hot summers: pest, diseases, fires

Rise in disturbances due to warm winters, hot summers: pest, diseases, firesLoss of forests after disturbances – difficulty regenerating in dry, hot summer conditions

Loss of forests after disturbances – difficulty regenerating in dry, hot summer conditions

Climate disruption and NW SalmonClimate disruption and NW Salmon

Increased winter Increased winter flooding – habitat flooding – habitat destructiondestruction

Decreased summer and Decreased summer and fall streamflowfall streamflow

Higher stream and Higher stream and ocean temperaturesocean temperatures

Salmon impacts Salmon impacts symptomatic of larger symptomatic of larger water resource impactswater resource impacts

““For the factors we can For the factors we can simulate with some simulate with some confidence, the prospects confidence, the prospects for many PNW salmon for many PNW salmon stocks look bleak” stocks look bleak” - UW Climate Impacts Group- UW Climate Impacts Group

““For the factors we can For the factors we can simulate with some simulate with some confidence, the prospects confidence, the prospects for many PNW salmon for many PNW salmon stocks look bleak” stocks look bleak” - UW Climate Impacts Group- UW Climate Impacts Group

Solutions: UN Framework Solutions: UN Framework Convention on Climate Convention on Climate ChangeChange Foundation of international efforts to combat Foundation of international efforts to combat

global warming global warming

Objective: “stabilize GHG concentrations in Objective: “stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerousdangerous human interference with the human interference with the climate system”climate system”

Kyoto protocol sets binding limits: Ratified by Kyoto protocol sets binding limits: Ratified by over 100 nations; emission trading and over 100 nations; emission trading and markets are evolving rapidlymarkets are evolving rapidly

COCO22 Emissions and Concentrations: Emissions and Concentrations: The environment responds to The environment responds to concentrations; concentrations; aggressive aggressive emission reduction needs to begin quicklyemission reduction needs to begin quickly

IPCC

“I sa y t h e d eba t e i s o ver . We k n o w t h e sc i ence . We s ee t he t hrea t. A n d we k n o w t h e t i m e f o r

ac t i o n i s n o w … ”

A rn o l d Sw arzene g ger , G o ver n or o f C a l if o r n ia (2 0 0 5 )

“...the kind of hope I often think about... I understand above all as a stateof mind, not a state of the world. Either we have hope within us or wedon’t; it is a dimension of the soul, and it’s not essentially dependent on someparticular observation of the world or estimate of the situation. It is anorientation of the spirit, an orientation of the heart; it transcends the worldthat is immediately experienced and is anchored somewhere beyond its horizons.

Hope, in this deep and powerful sense, is not the same as joy that things aregoing well, or willingness to invest in enterprises that are obviously headedfor early success, but, rather, an ability to work for something because itis good, not just because it stands a chance to succeed. The more unpropitiousthe situation in which we demonstrate hope, the deeper that hope is. Hope isdefinitely not the same thing as optimism. It is not the conviction thatsomething will turn out well, but the certainty that something makes sense,regardless of how it turns out….

Paul Gorman