The Clean Energy and Transport Transition

The Clean Energy and Transport Transition

BusinessNZ Energy Council

– Young Energy Professionals Network

21 June 2019

Michael Liebreich

Founder and CEO

Liebreich Associates

1 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates

@mliebreichZ Energy Speaking Tour, New Zealand

Source: Independent; Cleantechnica, Oilprice.com, Businessgreen; FT; Bloomberg; BBC

Clean energy news flow

2 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Telegraph; Oilprice; Bloomberg; Economist; Autocar; The Guardian

EV news flow

3 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Wikimedia Commons

Solar and wind are not taking over the world

The great hope for a quick and

sweeping transition to renewable

energy is wishful thinking.

Vaclav Smil

Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Environment

at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

4 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


2040: Welcome to the Three-Third World

1/3 of electricity

will be wind and solar

1/3 of vehicles will be

electric

Economy will be 1/3 more

energy productive

Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica

5 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


1/3 of electricity



electric


energy productive



6 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Global clean energy investment and capacity installations 2004 – 2018

$317 billion

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Includes large hydro. Source: BNEF, IRENA

$95bn$121bn

$181bn

$228bn

$258bn$240bn

$320bn

$350bn$324bn

$302bn

$369bn

$413bn

$358bn

$402bn

$348bn

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$354 billion

36GW

91GW

179 GW

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

7 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


10

100

1,000

10,000

100 10,000 1,000,000Cumulative capacity (MW)

€/MWh (real 2018)

2018

1985

Solar – learning rate 28.5% Wind – learning rate 15%

Experience curves

Source: BNEF

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1 1,000 1,000,000

$/W (real 2018)

1976

Cumulative capacity (MW)

2018

8 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Solar scale-up 2005 – 2018

Images: Nissan; Enel Villanueva solar plant

2005 2018

9 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Evolution of wind turbine heights and output

20001995199019th C

300m

200m

100m

1-12kW0.5 MW

1.2 MW2 MW

2005

4 MW

2010

7 MW

2015

9 MW

2025

12-15 MW

Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

10 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2018

Country:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Mexico

Neoen

Nov 2017

2019

Solar PV Onshore wind

Country:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Mexico

Enel

Nov 2017

2018

Offshore wind

US$ 1.77 c/kWhUS$ 1.97 c/kWhSource: Various manufacturers and project developersNote: images are illustrative only

Country:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Germany

Dong/ENBW

2016

2024

US$ 4.9 c/kWh

11 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; BPNote: Calculated as GWh renewable production / GWh consumption

RE proportion of power generation 2007 – 2018

8%20%

Australia

Wind & solar

Other renewables

61%66%

Canada

8%17%

U.S.

88%79%

Brazil

19%32%

Spain

16%

35%

Italy

5%

29%

U.K.

14%33%

Germany

15% 25%

China

9%17%

Japan

8% 15%

Australia

18% 16%

India

65%81%

New Zealand

12 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Twitter

Price of renewable energy in India

The cost of solar power is

now cheaper than coal in

this country.

Piyush Goyal

Minister of State for Power, Coal, New &

Renewable Energy and Mines, India

13 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; Coalswarm

Net new coal generation capacity 2006 – 2018

-100

-50

0

50

100

2006 2010 2015 2018

GW

RoW

India

China

Retirements

Net additions

14 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Bloomberg

Australia

Scott Morrison

Prime Minister of Australia

This is coal - don't be

afraid, don't be scared!

15 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Mark Lyons/Getty Images

Trump digs coalJuly 2017

Everybody was saying, well, you won’t

get any mining jobs. We picked up

45,000 mining jobs

Donald Trump

US President

16 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


0

50

100

150

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Thousand employed

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

US coal mining monthly employmentJan 1995 – Mar 2019

President Obama President TrumpPresident GW BushPresident Clinton

17 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


CoalCoal

Coal

Gas

Gas

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Nuclear

Nuclear

Other RE

Other RE

Other RE

Wind

Wind

Wind

SolarSolar

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

IEA NPS 2017Electricity


BNEF NEO 2040Electricity

Source: BNEF NEO 2018; IEA WEO 2018; Liebreich Associates

Wind and solar contribution to global power generation

39%6%

By 2040

20 to 39% of power

globally will be from

variable sources

CoalCoal

Coal

Gas

Gas

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Nuclear

Nuclear

Other RE

Other RE

Other RE

Wind

Wind

Wind

SolarSolar

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




22%

CoalCoal

Coal

Gas

Gas

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Nuclear

Nuclear

Other RE

Other RE

Other RE

Wind

Wind

Wind

SolarSolar

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




18 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: CAISO OASIS; CPUC; LS Power; CESA; BNEF

Evolving structure of power supply California

First week of May 2012

(actual)


(actual)


(modelled)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 2

Chart Title

Solar Wind Net Load Demand

19 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF

Evolving structure of power supply Northern Europe

Past – summer

Past – winter

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


Current – summer

Current – winter

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


Future – summer

Future – winter

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


-30.0

-10.0

10.0

30.0

50.0

70.0

90.0


GW

Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/Storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR

20 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF

Balancing the grid

II. CONTINUOUS

BALANCING

III. CONTROLLING

FREQUENCY

I. PLANNING FOR

EXTREMES

Demand

Variable supply

Months to weeks Days to hours Minutes to seconds

Power to methane

Pumped storage

Ammonia

H2

Flywheels

Compressed air

Biogas Electric vehiclesDemand response

Flowbatteries

Synthetic fuels

Batteries

Solar CSP

Interconnectors

Smart heating & cooling

Seasonal thermal storage

Biomass

Digitisation

21 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF; Liebreich Associates

Digitisation of infrastructure

Ubiquitous

Artificial

intelligence and

machine

learning

Ubiquitous

processing and

storage

(cloud to

network edge)

Ubiquitous

chips and

sensors

Ubiquitous

communications

Ubiquitous

Blockchain

(distributed

ledgers and

smart contracts)

22 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: NASA Hubble Faint Object Camera; NASA New Horizons/JHU-APL/SwRI/ZLDoyle

1994 2015

Digitisation – Pluto

23 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


1/3 of electricity



electric


energy productive



24 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Tesla; Detroit Electric, courtesy of EVASD

The future of transportation – EVs

Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until

they're within reach of the average family.

The Washington

Post , 1915

25 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


0

100

200

300

400

500

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

thousand sold

0

100

200

300

400

500

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

thousand sold

0

100

200

300

400

500

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

thousand sold

APAC EMEA AMER

Quarterly EV sales by regionQ1 2012 – Q4 2018

CAGR 86% CAGR 62% CAGR 54%

Source: BNEF

26 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


49%

36%30%

25%22% 19% 17% 15%

0

10

20

30

40

50

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Thousand 2018 $

Battery

Powertrain

Vehicle

ICE

Source: BNEF

US medium BEV price breakdown, share of battery costs and ICE price

Unsubsidised sticker

price crossover with ICEs

2022 – 2026

Unsubsidised

TCO crossover

with ICEs

2017 – 2020

27 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Jassen Todorov/National Geographic

Dieselgate

28 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF EVO 2018

Global EV model availability

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Cumulative models available

PHEV

BEV

29 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Dyson electric car prototype?

Image: GQ; Royal College of Art

30 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Billion vehicles on the road % Share of global fleet

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Million sales

Source: BNEF EVO 2019

Annual global passenger vehicle sales Global passenger vehicle fleet

BNEF electric vehicle outlook to 2040

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Vehicles on the road

ICE PHEV BEV

Share

31 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Not just cars going electric – buses

Images: Thomas Jouley; BYD; Proterra

32 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Not just cars going electric – commercial vehicles

Images: Tesla; Starship Technologies; Ehang; Zunum; Daimler; Dpost; UPS/Arrival

33 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Not just cars going electric – 2 & 3 wheelers

Images: Toyota; Omastar ; Kalkhoff; Jetson; Harley Davidson

34 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Bloomberg; Cat; Toyota; Pon Equipment

Not just cars going electric

35 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Images: Alf Kare Aesobo; Kongsberg; Enercon, ABB

Not just cars going electric – ships

36 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Not just cars going electric

Images: Volocopter, Lilium, Pipistrel; Airbus; Zunum; NASA

37 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Toyota

Hydrogen vehicles

38 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Images: Tesla; Toyota; Source: Liebreich Associates

Tesla Model 3

Hydrogen fuel cell vs battery vehicles

Toyota Mirai

Curb weight: 1,847 kg 1,850 kg

Range: 310 miles 312 miles

Refuel time, motorway: 50 minutes – 200 miles 10 minutes – 300 miles

Drive train moving parts: 17 > 200

Wind-to-wheel efficiency: > 61% < 32 %

Price: $49,000 $57,500

Refuel time, home: 1 minute N/A

39 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates



Tesla Model 3


Toyota Mirai

Curb weight: 1,847 kg 1,850 kg


Refuel time, motorway: 50 minutes – 200 miles



Price: $49,000 $57,500


10 minutes – 300 miles

40 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates



Tesla Model 3


Toyota Mirai

Curb weight: 1,847 kg





Price: $49,000 $57,500


1,850 kg

41 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates



Tesla Model 3


Toyota Mirai

Curb weight: 1,847 kg





Price: $49,000 $57,500


1,850 kg

42 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


BEV and H2FC energy input for a 100 km trip

Source: BNEF; Liebreich AssociatesNotes: Assuming 17.6kWh/km, average for Chevy Bolt

BEV

H2FCEV

BEV total

energy used

= 28 kWh

FCEV total

energy used

= 55 kWh

Drive system: 3 kWh

Battery: 2 kWh

Charging: 1 kWh

AC-DC conversion: 1 kWh

Transmission: 3 kWh

Road traction: 18 kWh

Road traction: 18 kWh

AC-DC conversion: 3 kWh

Electrolysis: 13 kWh

Compression: 3 kWh

Transport & storage: 2 kWh

Drive system: 3 kWh

Fuel-cell: 14 kWh

43 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


1/3 of electricity



electric


energy productive



44 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; IEA

World GDP, final energy and energy intensity by 2040

Note: Using IEA New Policies Scenario

0

50

100

150

200

250

GDP Final energy Final energy/GDP

Indexed (2016 = 100)

2016 2040

0

50

100

150

200

250


Indexed (2016 = 100)

2016 2040

0

50

100

150

200

250


Indexed (2016 = 100)

2016 2040

The world uses a

third less energy

per unit of GDP by

2040

45 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Images: Naked Energy; Climeon; Danfoss; SaltX; Sonnen; Radbot; Optiwatt; PassivSystems; Sunamp; Solidpower

Innovation in heat is cool

46 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Wh/day 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Wh/day

Source: Liebreich Associates; BNEFImages: Various

Standard appliances Super efficient appliances

Energy demand in middle income developing country home

Total energy

consumption

Total energy

consumption

Efficient appliances

enable 66%

reduction in power

demand

47 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: IEA; Liebreich AssociatesNote: Heat pump sales are those for primary use in heating

Air conditioner sales Heat pump sales

Global sales of electrical equipment for building cooling and heating, 2010 – 2018

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2015 2018

Million units

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2015 2018

Million units

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2015 2018

Million units

China APAC (excl. China) North America Europe Other

CAGR

5.1%

CAGR

12.1%

48 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates



1/3 of electricity



electric


energy productive


49 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: UNFCCC

Paris

The world must achieve

greenhouse gas neutrality

some time in the second half of

the century

Paris Agreement

December 2015

50 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


Images: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica; Wikipedia Commons

Beyond the Three-Third World

Shipping/freight/air travel Chemicals

Energy accessHeatAgriculture

Manufacturing

51 June 2019

LIEBREICHAssociates


[email protected]

www.liebreich.com

@mliebreich

Thanks!

The Clean Energy and Transport Transition

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