The Chilling Stars A new theory of climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research...

The Chilling StarsA new theory of climate change

Henrik Svensmark,

Center for Sun Climate Research

Danish National Space Center

Basel, Marts2007

Variations in Cosmic Ray Flux Affects Earths Climate, and Cause Variations in Climate.

Cosmic Rays and Climate

Examples withSolar Modulated Cosmic rays

CLIMATECOSMIC RAYS

What are Cosmic Rays?Heliosphere, Cosmic Rays and Solar Activity

Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)

One month of observation

Movie

Cosmic ray shower (Movie)

About 70 muons/s /m2 at the Earths surface In 24 hours about 12 million muons goes through a human body

Cosmic Rays in a Cloud Chamber (movie)

Cosmic rays and climate over the last millennium

8

Cosmic rays and climate over the last 10.000 years

Bond et al, Science 294, 2001

Last 1000 yearsLittle Ice Age

• Little Ice Age is merely the most recent of a dozen such events during the last 10.000 years

How can STARS influence Climate?

Possible physical mechanism

• Mechanism that amplifies tiny GCR energy input

Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, JASTP 1997, Svensmark, PRL 1998, Marsh & Svensmark, PRL, 2000. (update 2005)

Link between Low Cloud Cover and Galactic Cosmic Rays?

Micro-physicalMechanism?

CLOUDS

CLIMATECOSMICRAYS

Experimental Studiesat DNSC in Copenhagen

Cloud Drop

CCN(Cloud Condensation Nuclei)

CN(Condensation Nuclei)

UCN(Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei)

0.1 m 10 m0.01 m0.001 m

Aerosol formation and growth

Size

H2SO4 &

Water&

OrganicVapors

Possible link between clouds and cosmic rays

Nucleation processhas been a mystery

Cloud Drop

CCN(Cloud Condensation Nuclei)

CN(Condensation Nuclei)

UCN(Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei)

0.1 m 10 m0.01 m0.001 m

Aerosol formation and growth

Size

H2SO4 &

Water

Vapors

What is the importance of IONS ?

-

+

Cosmic Ray Ionization &

Gamma source Gamma source

Muon detector Radon detectorSO2

O3

H2O

Steady state experiment

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 q (cm-3 s-1)

H2SO4 concentration ~ 2*108 (cm-3)

O3 ~ 25 ppbSO2 ~ 300 pptRH ~ 35%

Svensmark et al. PRA 2006

Äspö Hard Rock Laboratoriet, Sweden

Hopefully an experiment will take place with near zero ionization in spring 2007

500

m

Next experiment

Surface 70 /s/m2

100 m 0.7 /s/m2200 m 0.07 /s/m2

However radon is aconcern - lead shield

( How to stop cosmic rays)

Hard Rock Laboratory, Aspø Sweden ~ 500 meter of rock


CLOUDS

CLIMATECOSMICRAYS

GALACTICPROCESSES


The Milky Way, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays

Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays

The Milky Way, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays

Birdseye view of Milkyway

Svensmark A&G 2007

Cosmic rays and spiral arm crossing

Shaviv, PRL (2002)Million of Years

200 0

1.5

1

0.5

0

400600

Est

imat

ed C

osm

ic R

ay F

lux

Svensmark A&G 2007

What about longer time scales, i.e over the history of the Earth 4.6 Billion years?

Although Cosmic ray fluxes are not known so far back

in time, they can be constructed from knowledge of

1. Solar Evolution

2. History of Star Formation Rate in the Milky Way

Insight to the evolution of our Sun is gained from extensive studies of solar proxies with ages from 100 Myr to 10 Gyr

Solar Evolution

2/ RVM LIMP

Pressure balance ISMPtMVtR /)()(

00 )()( MtMt Heliopause

The young Sun was rotating at a rate at least 10 times faster than today.

As a consequence, 1) The Sun had a vigorous magnetic activity 2) Coronal X-ray and EUV emissions up to 1000 times stronger than today. 3) The Sun had a denser solar wind A better shilding of Cosmic rays

Solar Evolution, Star Rate Formation and Cosmic Rays

Svensmark, Astronomical Notes 2006


Formation and interaction between galaxies

Minor merger (dawfgalaxy) with spiral galaxy

Cosmic Rays and the Biosphere in 4 Billion Years

10 GeV

C = 0.92



1. Variations in Star Formation Rate in the Milky Way and Solar Evolution Cause Variations in the Cosmic Ray Flux Impacting Earth.

2. Variations in Cosmic Ray Flux Cause Variations in Climate.

3. Variations in Climate Cause Variations in total Biological Productivity.

The Argumentation is Based on the Following Assumptions About Cause and Effects


If more carbon is stored in one of these reservoirs, the isotopic composition of others reservoirs changes to reflect that storage. For instance: if there is more carbon stored in organic matter which is isotopically light, the average carbon composition of dissolved carbon in the ocean and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will become heavier.

Carbon IsotopesThe various reservoirs of carbon on Earth (limestone, biota and CO2 in atmosphere)



Carbon 13 during 3.8 billion years

StandarddeviationIn steps of400 mill yr


Cosmic Rays and the Biosphere in 4 Billion Years

10 GeV

C = 0.92



Hofman and Schrag point to cap carbonate abruptly above glaciomarine dropstone

Snowball Earth

Cold Climate

Equator Pole

Ice

Warm Cold

Large temperature difference between equator and poleStrong winds – Mixing of Nutriants

Large biological productivityLarge fluctuations biological productivity possible


Hot Climate

Equator Pole

Hot Warm

Small temperature difference between equator and poleWeak winds – Little Mixing of Nutriants

Small biological productivitySmall fluctuations in biological productivity


Conclusion

Particles from space seems to influence Earths climate,ranging from years to 109 years.

Part of the missing physical mechanism has been demonstrated experimentally• Involving ions and aerosol formation• Linking to clouds and thereby the energy budget of the Earth

Understanding the cosmic ray climate link could have large implications in our understanding of climate changes and possible evolution on Earth.

The evolution of the Milky Way and the Earth is linked

It is not suggested that it is the only cause of climate change.

The team:

Martin Enghoff

Nigel D. Marsh

Jens Olaf Pedersen

Ulrik I. Uggerhøj

Henrik SvensmarkCenter for

Sun-Climate Research

The Chilling Stars A new theory of climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research...

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