The Children‘s and Youth Book Market · Germany: The children‘sand youth book market has...

1

© GfK 2016 | Children‘s and Youth Book Market | April 2016Please note that in particular situations, for example at a high degree of specification, comparatively low number of counts (<100) can occur which may limit the accuracy of the interpretation to some extent.

The Children‘s and

Youth Book Market

2© GfK April 21, 2016 | Title of presentation

Agenda

1. Book Market Trends

2. Children’s and Youth Book Market Trends

3. Children’s and Youth Book Market in the Entertainment Media Landscape

4. Children’s and Youth Book Consumer Insights

3© 2015 GfK Entertainment

Charts & Insights in more than 30 countries for books, music, video and games

GAMES24 countries

DVD20 countries

BOOK11 countries

MUSIC10 countries

Experts for books

in 11 countries

The Underlying Tools –

GfK Retail Panels and German Consumer Panel


Market Trends Value – Book Markets 2015

-0.2%+0.5%

+1.7%

-1.8%

+0.9%

+5.8%

+4.7%

-5.7%

-1.7%

+0.0%

-5.5%

Country

Europe

2015 vs. 2014 2014 vs. 2013 2013 vs. 2012

NL +5.8% -8.5% -5.5%

ES +4.7% -2.3% -11.6%

FR +1.7% -1.5% -2.8%

IT +0.9% -2.3% -4.4%

BE +0.5% -1.1% -0.9%

PT +0.0% -0.2% -1.3%

AT -0.2% -3.4% -2.2%

PO -1.7% +9.83 +5.7

DE -1.8% -2.1% -0.3%

CH -5.7% -4.9% +6.2%

Country

LATAM

2015 vs. 2014 2014 vs. 2013 2013 vs. 2012

BR -5.5% +1.6% +13.3%

2015 vs. 2014

6


Germany: In 2015 the book market loses 40 m euros. The fifth consecutive

year of decreasing expenditures for physical product cannot be offset by digital

growth.

-1%

2015

4,067

3,850

217

2014

4,107

3,899

208

2013

4,205

4,008

197

2012

4,168

4,036

132

2011

4,158

4,096

61

2010

4,236

4,191

45

2009

4,162

4,139

23

2008

4,062

4,045

17

2007

4,029

4,008

22

2006

3,873

3,856

17

2005

3,669

3,669

408 380387398399401416415404395386 Menge in

Mio. Stück

10.7010.6110.5610.4610.3810.1910.029.969.969.819.52

Ø paid price

in €

Physical Purchases

Downloads

n 2015 = 55.453

Development of book market (brick-and-mortar + online retail) – spending in m €

Book market incl. audiobooks (physical + download) + e-books Basis: Key Facts, Periods Januar y– December each, n=2015: 55.453

-4%

vs. 2010

-9%

vs. 2010

Ø paid price

in €

Volume in

m units

7


0,90,8

4,0

2,4

0,9 0,31,0

2,01,6

6,4

3,9

0,3

1,31,61,7

7,3

4,3

0,2

1,21,41,5

8,0

4,5

Travel Reference

Books

Children‘s &

Youth Books

Non-FictionFiction/PoetryTotal

2014 201520132012

E-books within genres – spending in %

E-book percentage related to book market

incl. audiobooks (physical + download) + e-books

Germany: E-books continue to play a noteworthy role only within the fiction

sector with a market share of eight percent.

Basis: Spending in %, Periods January – December each, n=2015: 5.838

Low level of E-books in Children´s &

Youth segment

8


Germany: The children‘s and youth book market has remained stable since

2008

560563575568578575583569625

2015

570

10

2014

574

11

2013

588

14

2012

575

7

2011

581

3

2010

577

2

2009

586

2

2008

571

2

2007

627

2

73 6569686869727173Volume

in m units

8.798.35

8.698.418.437.968.198.05

8.60 Ø paid

price in €

Physical PurchasesDownloads

n 2015 = 55.453

Development of children‘s and youth book market – spending in m €

Children‘s and youth book market including audiobooks (physical + download) + e-booksBasis: Key Facts, Periods January – December each, n=2015: 8.127


2015 vs. 2014

Market Trends Value – Children/Young Adult Genre

+8.6%-1.2%

-0.4%

-1.0%

+4.8%

+6.0%

+11.8%

-2.4%

-1.7%

+9.0%

-2.5%

Country

Europe

Total Market

YoY Growth

Children/Young Adult

YoY Growth

FR +5.8% -0.4%

NL +5.3% +6.0%

ES +4.7% +11.8%

IT +0.9% +4.8%

BE +0.5% -1.2%

PT +0.0% +9.0%

AT -0.2% -2.9%

PO -1.7% +8.6%

DE -1.8% -1.0%

CH -5.7% -2.4%

Country

LATAM

Total Market

YoY Growth

Children/Young Adult

YoY Growth

BR -5.5% -2.5%


Global Bestsellers …

Top-Products 2015

Top-10

Top-10 Top-10

all kind of books (Fiction, Coloring, Sticker)

about the successful Disney movie „Frozen“Young Adult fiction by US-bestselling

author John Green

books #10 and #9 of the series Diary of

a Wimpy Kid by Jeff Kinney


Examples of Top-10-lists dominated by international titles

Ranking Title Author

1 DIARIO DE UM BANANA 10 KINNEY, JEFF

2 CIDADES DE PAPEL GREEN, JOHN

3 DIARIO DE UM BANANA 1 KINNEY, JEFF

4FROZEN ANNA & ELSA E O SEU NOVO

AMIGODISNEY

5 VIUVA E O PAPAGAIO WOLF, VIRGINIA

6 ULISSESMENERES, MARIA

ALBERTA

7 PIRATAS TEATRO PINA, MANUEL ANTONIO

8 PRINCIPEZINHOSAINT-EXUPERY,

ANTOINE DE

9 CAVALEIRO DA DINAMARCAANDRESEN, SOPHIA DE

MELLO BREYNER

10 VIDA MAGICA DA SEMENTINHA REDOL, ALVES

Ranking Title Author

1 DIARIO DE GREG 9: CARRETERA Y MANTA KINNEY, JEFF

2 WIGETTA. UN VIAJE MAGICOWILLYREX / VEGETTA777

3 DIARIO DE GREG 1: UN PRINGAO TOTAL KINNEY, JEFF

4STILTON: EL GRAN LIBRO DEL REINO DE LA FANTASIA

STILTON, GERONIMO

5 DIARIO DE GREG 10: VIEJA ESCUELA KINNEY, JEFF

6FUTBOLISIMOS 1, LOS / EL MISTERIO DE LOS ARBITROS DORMIDOS

SANTIAGO, ROBERTO

7 AFTER (SERIE AFTER I) TODD, ANNA

8 PRINCIPITO, ELSAINT EXUPERY, ANTOINE DE

9 DIARIO DE GREG 8: MALA SUERTE KINNEY, JEFF

10 DIARIO DE GREG 2: LA LEY DE RODRICK KINNEY, JEFF

Portugal Spain


… but also country-specific bestsellers – some examples

Top-Products 2015

PIXI-series in the German

language markets The treehouse-series by

Australian author Andy Griffiths

Rico, Oscar und die

Tierschatten

Novel by Andreas Steinhöfel made

a film in 2014

Series by illustrator and comic-author

Robert Trojanowski

The little prince – Children book classic

by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

13


Germany: In the medium term primarily fiction children's books

and the sector playing and learning are growing.

Development of subgenres – spending in %

11

13 119 9 9

7 7 8

22 2325 28 27

32 32 34 33 33

891011

876

2015

570

55

6

2014

574

45

5

2013

588

45

6

2012

574

5

46

2011

580

5

4

Children‘s and youth market including audiobooks (physical + download) + ebooks

Rates of Change

(%)

Spending in m €

Youth Books for12 Years and Over, Biographies

Children’s Books Up To 11 Years

Playing, Learning

Non-fiction, Non-fiction Picture Books

First Reading / Preschool Age

Lecture Books, Fairy Tales, Legends, Rhymes, Songs

Cardboard / Tactile Picture Books

Picture Books, Narrative/Religious

1

20

59

12

-2

-29

-25

-15

-34

Total rate of change

2015 vs.

2011

Basis: Spending in m € and in %; Periods January – December each

n=2015: 8.127

14


Two Essential „Pain Points“:

Consumers have less and less free time available.

Increasing competition for this limited time budget

with home theater, gaming, social media ...

Perceived Lack of Time, Increasing Tendency

Time for Videos

users watch Ø per month

Time for Social Media

44%49%

37%41%

9% 9%

2014201120142011 20142011

YOUNGER ONES

FAMILY LIFEWORLDS

MIDDLE-AGED ONES OLDER ONES

“"There are weeks, I'm so exhausted and can’t get anything done

and just want to sleep. Then I cancel every appointment.“ (25-39y.)

“It's hard to please everyone. One is selfish at this age, but I just want

to see my friends, getting good grades. And at the same time I also

have obligations to my parents and I want a good relationship with

them." (14-17y., female)

Time for Gaming

of all „desktop

minutes“ are

„Facebook

minutes“

22% 24%of all „smartphone

minutes“ are spent

on Facebook,

Instagram or

WhatsApp

Ø HOURS

PER WEEK

REGARDING

UNDER 30

YEAR OLDS

2014

201313,2

14,1

Topic Time Budget - Germany

feature films

5-6 24TV episodes

15


Frequent gamers: Persons, who play computer games, video games or mobile games at least several times per month

Basis: 74.0 m Germans, multi-topic survey January 2016

7,04,84,74,61,93,52,5

Germany: In the youth group of 10 to 15 year olds there is by

far the highest share of frequent gamers

Players in m persons

39 21%

45%

58%56%

69%

84%

39%

Share of “Frequent Gamers” (Jan 16)

up to 9 years 10-15 years 16-19 years 20-29 years 30-39 years 40-49 years 50+ yearsTotal

Jan 16

Jan 15 2,6 3,6 2,0 4,7 4,6 5,0 6,6

16


CinemaMusicGamesHome Video

Germany: In a comparison of long-term revenues the games

market and the video market register the highest growth rates.

1.161844

1.348

2.3971.996

874

1.791

934

4.1233.975

20152015 20002000 2000 2015

+128%

2015 20152000

+38%

+92%

-44%

+4%

2000

All periods: January-December, Spending in m €

Games: physical, digital, mobile, fees (online / browser games / networks), in-game purchases

Home Video: physical, EST, TVoD, SVoD

Music: physical, digital, streaming

Books: physical, ebooks, audiobook downloads, streaming

562 Mio.

in-game purch228 Mio.

SvoD

Books

17


MusicGamesHome Video

Germany: Entertainment expenditures for children up to 15 years of age:

Declining due to games and music, expenditures for books have remained

stable

128224

309

717

182176

482473

-43%

-57%

+3%

2007 2015 2015 2007 2015

+2%

200720152007

Books

Users up to 15 years of age

All markets: physical/digital/mobile (as of 2013) excl. streaming; All periods January-December; Expenditures in m €n 2015 = 13.322

Please note:

Free to play, Online Games, Micro-

transactions are not included in games,

but are very relevant in the young

target group

18


Book buyers in m personsPopulation in m persons

11,7

10,7

-6%

+16%

+10%

-10%

-9%

-4%

70 years

and over 12,8

11,0

60 to 69

years 8,9

9,5

50 to 59

years

40 to 49

years 11,2

12,4

30 to 39

years 7,9

8,6

10 to 29

years 15,2

15,7

2015

2010

0%Total67,768,0

Population in %

23

13

18

16

14

Germany: Development of Population vs. Book Buyers: The declines

within younger target groups are significantly stronger than the

demographic effect.

18

Population in comparison 2010 vs. 2015, book buyers in m persons and in %

16

-8%Total33,135,9

22

12

17

17

13

19

2010 2015

+17%

-21%

-28%

-9%

-3%

70 years

and over 6,1

5,2

60 to 69

years 5,1

5,2

50 to 59

years 6,1

6,1

40 to 49

years 5,6

7,0

30 to 39

years 3,8

5,2

10 to 29

years 6,6

7,2

+1%

Basis: Persons in m, Periods January – December each, n=2015: 55.453

19


12,9 12,5 13,1 13,4 14,1 14,4 14,4 14,213,2

201520142013201220112010200920082007

-7%

21 %18% 19 % 20 % 21 % 21 % 21 %Buyer

penetration

Buyers in m persons

19 %

Germany: In the long-term comparison in terms of buyers the children‘s

and youth book market achieves the level of 2009, however, currently

the sector has to contend with a decreasing number of buyers.

Children‘s and youth book market including audiobooks (physical + download) + e-booksBasis: Buyers in m and in %,

Periods January – December each, n=2015: 8.127

20 %

Development of buyers in the children‘s and youth book market – in m persons

22


Germany: The book trade remains the dominating channel, online gains

importance

Importance of distribution channels – spending in %

54 54 53 55 54

25 25 27 27 29

15 15 12 1012

2015

570

2

5

2014

574

2

4

2013

588

2

5

2012

575

1

5

2011

581

0

5

Children‘s and youth market including audiobooks (physical + download) + ebooks Basis: Spending in m € and in %; Periods January – December each

Rates of Change

(%)

Spending in m €

Other Distribution Channels

Downloads

E-Commerce Physical

Food Retail

Book Trade

Total rate of change

-2

Total

-34

247

15

-14

-2

2015 vs.

2011

n=2015: 8.127


Decline of book buyers within younger target groups

While the spending for children and youth books remain stable the sector has to contend with a

decreasing number of buyers – especially in the younger target groups (20-39 years –> potential

parents). Book industry should pay particular attention to this group to regain buyers.

The children‘s and youth book market is increasing or remains stable

Over the last years, printed books for children and young adults persist despite digitalization and

an increasing entertainment media offer (games, home theater) competing for a limited time-

budget.

Global bestsellers dominate the Top-10-Rankings

The children and youth book market is highly driven by international books. 2015's Top-Lists are

strongly dominated by the series "Diary of a wimpy kid" or young adult novel "The fault in our

stars".

Children´s and youth book market

Summary and Conclusions

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The Children‘s and Youth Book Market · Germany: The children‘sand youth book market has...

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