The changing student market Predicting future trends

Kim SomervilleDirector of Marketing & Communicationsk.somerville@leedstrinity.ac.uk

Evolution of students …

Introduction

• No magic ball but a number of clues!• The past • Future demographics• Government agenda• Changing 14-19 environment

A decade of difference – 1990’sStudent Identity

•Exclusive Group•Looked / Behaved different from rest of society

Aspirations•Self-improvement•Escape parental home •Uni = An experience

Lifestyle•Lie-ins•Cheap Bars•Lunchtime drinking

Poor = cool•Student grants•Free education•Poverty a rite of passage

A decade of difference – 2000’s Student Identity

•Widened participation•Changing demographic•Very similar ‘young workers’

Aspirations•More serious•Get a great job•Uni = means to an end

Lifestyle•Working - part time job•Shopping•Staying in•Living at home with parents

Poor = Miserable•Unable to engage in culture•Loans / Debt•Tuition fees

Then versus nowAs it was?

•A time of exploration–Establish new friendship groups–Introduced to a broad range of new influences–New behaviour patterns – drinking, socialising, fashion, politics–Leave family home

•Party animals–Time to ‘play’ –Having fun is central to the student lifestage

•Aspirations–Less career focussed, going to university a rite of passage

As it is

•Increasingly Students are maintaining links with old friends

•Institutions are becoming more homogenised

•Reliant on parents for longer–Living at home–Financial support

•Students are studying harder than ever

•More working in part time jobs

•Career/grade focussed

Meet the Students4 New Typologies

Comfortable Coaster• 15% of student market• Middle class • Lives in the premium Halls / private house• Parents 100% support lifestyle – no work during

term or holidays• Russell group Uni• The coaster doesn’t tend to work too hard

• Bright and gets work done with the minimum effort• And they are fairly relaxed because mum and dad

will always be on hand to bail them out

• The coaster has access to broadband access and laptop and can spend hours a day indulging in what they love be it playing sport or drinking

Glamour Debtor

• 30% of student market• Typically middle class• Rented accommodation (would rather spend

cash on socialising)• Maxed out loans / credit cards and parents pay

tuition fees• Russell Group Uni• Living for the moment

• ‘If you are £15,000 in debt already you may as well be £16,000 in debt and having fun’

• The glamour debtor revels in their carefree attitude and drinks in the coolest bars and buys the best drinks, wearing the most expensive brands

• Aspirations: status-conscious they want to compete with the more wealthy young workers – they want to have the best years of their life, – and worry about it later

Newdent• 25% of student market• Typically working class • Lives at home with mum and dad• Works weeknights and weekends for cash – quite debt

averse• University / Polyversity / HE College• They are not living what we see as the typical ‘student’ lifestyle

• Still have all the same mates from school• Still hanging around in the same places• Friendship group includes many who are working• They themselves very likely to be working part time• Their lifestyle, leisure habits and media consumption

identical to workers of the same age• Newdents have to choose the establishment closest to home -

yet many spend a lot of time commuting, and this impacts on their ability to socialise

• Aspirations: Want to improve situation, to not fall too far behind working mates

Studious Stresser• 30% of student market• Lower Middle class • Lives in the cheapest accommodation

they can find• Working over 20 hours per week to

supplement student loans• Russell Group Uni / Polyversity• Typically second or final year students from lower middle class

families • Lack parental support but don’t qualify for any subsidies • Introduction of tuition fees has made life tough

• Life is dominated by working hard to achieve grades they need and doing dull jobs such as data entry or working in fast food joint

• Not big in or out of home socialisers due to time constraints – but tend to save themselves for the ‘big night out’

• Aspirations: achieve the best grade they can get to be able to treat themselves with a ‘luxury’ item when the latest student loan payment comes in

This years Freshers …

• Will not know life without the internet or email• Will more than likely have been using a mobile phone

throughout their time at school • Will have a virtual learning environment at their school or

college

Unite Student Experience Report 2007 http://www.unitegroup.co.uk/data/Reports/Student%20Experience%20Report%202007.pdf

Working

• 40% of students work whilst studying. They work an average of 14 hours per week, getting paid an average of £7.61 per hour, significantly above the minimum wage.

• The pay gap starts early as males earn £1 an hour more than females.

• Students find employers supportive and flexible on the whole, making working a pleasant experience and most enjoy work, although recognising it could affect their studies.

Unite Student Experience Report 2007 http://www.unitegroup.co.uk/data/Reports/Student%20Experience%20Report%202007.pdf

Finances

• 75% of students are in debt • First year students are more concerned about their debt than third

years• The percentage taking government loans has dropped• 6% percentage points but the number in debt to banks has increased• Less well off students are increasingly turning to more expensive

forms of borrowing, such as credit cards• Weekly spending has remained static over the past two years at

£180, down (£12 over the two years when inflation is taken into account)

• Students expect to pay off their debts in 7.7 years (£750 per year)

Unite Student Experience Report 2007 http://www.unitegroup.co.uk/data/Reports/Student%20Experience%20Report%202007.pdf

The Future

An Aging Population

“In 2004, there were just over 0.5 million (5 per cent) more children aged under 16 than people of state pensionable age.

However, from 2007, the population of state pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children and by 2031 is projected to exceed it by almost 4 million (34 per cent).”

Office for National Statistics

National Statistics 23 October 2007 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/pproj1007.pdf

Office for National Statistic Prediction

• UK population will increase from 60.6 million in 2006 to reach 71 million by 2031.

• The population will gradually become older with the average (mean) age expected to rise from 39.6 years in 2006 to 40.6 years in 2016 and to 42.6 years by 2031.

• As the population ages, numbers in the oldest age bands will increase the fastest.

• In 2006, there were 4.7 million people in the UK aged 75 and over. The number is projected to increase to 5.5 million by 2016 and to 8.2 million by 2031, a rise of 76 per cent over twenty-five years.

National Statistics 23 October 2007 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/pproj1007.pdf

Aging Population … Does it matter?

• Important to consider projections of the young population of the UK

• Young people aged 18–20 are the major source of demand for full-time higher education at undergraduate level

• 44% of the first year UK-domiciled students in full-time undergraduate higher education in the UK are aged 18

• 21% aged 19 • 7% aged 20• In total these make up 71% of first year full-time UK

domiciled undergraduate students

A Regional View

• The region’s population will grow by 9% over the 25 year projection horizon.

• The number of people in the 15-19 age band will decrease by 11.1% - 39,000.

• There will also be a decrease in those aged between 20 and 24 (-1.4%).

• There are massive increases predicted in the ‘retirement’ age bands of 60-64 (38.6%) and 65-69 (44%).

• The proportion of people from Ethnic Minority groups will expand from 8.7% to 12.2%.

Yorkshire Futures/Leeds University School of Geography http://www.yorkshirefutures.com/siteassets/documents/YorkshireFutures/3/9/390F5D3F-E067-4872-8C5C-AB95E8F47FB7/Yorkshire%20&%20The%20Humber%20Population%20Projections.pdf

Headline Trends in Higher Education

2005/06 2026/27 Percentage

Full-time undergraduate 1,198,800 1,208,800 0.8%

Part-time undergraduate 589,800 617,800 4.7%

Full-time postgraduate 234,300 240,400 2.6%

Part-time postgraduate 258,500 262,900 1.7%

Total 2,281,000 2,330,000 2.1%

Of which home and EU domiciled

2,090,200 2,131,300 1.9%

Of which international (non-EU) domiciled

191,000 198,700 4.0%

Universities UK http://bookshop.universitiesuk.ac.uk/downloads/size_and_shape.pdf

Headline Trends in Higher Education

2005/06 2026/27 Percentage

Full-time undergraduate 1,198,800 1,208,800 0.8%

Part-time undergraduate 589,800 617,800 4.7%

Full-time postgraduate 234,300 240,400 2.6%

Part-time postgraduate 258,500 262,900 1.7%

Total 2,281,000 2,330,000 2.1%

Of which home and EU domiciled

2,090,200 2,131,300 1.9%

Of which international (non-EU) domiciled

191,000 198,700 4.0%

Universities UK http://bookshop.universitiesuk.ac.uk/downloads/size_and_shape.pdf

Government Agenda

• 1997 Dearing Report - A vision for 20 years: the learning society – Significant change in funding.

• 2006 Leitch Review of Skills - Recommendation is to exceed 40% of the adult population with Level 4 or above skills, widening the drive to improve the UK’s high skills to encompass the whole working-age population.

• Changing the targets away from the sole focus on young people aged 18-30 will transform the incentives of HE providers to work with employers, delivering a step change in liaison between employers and higher education institutions.

Demand led/employer led

• Emphasis is on ‘upskilling’• Engagement with employers• Engagement with lifelong learning

Need to raise attainment

• Only 76% of 16-year-olds stay in education, compared with >90% across developed countries

• Fewer than half – 46% - of our 16-year-olds achieved five GCSE’s grades A-C including English and Maths last year

• One in five employees lack the literacy and numeracy skills expected of an 11-year-old, according to a CBI commissioned survey in April 2007

• 97% of pupils with two A levels or more go to a University

The 14-19 Reforms

• 2013 – Date by which education system will mean all 18-year-olds can continue learning

• 2015 – Target date by which all young people progress to further learning beyond 16

14-19 Strategy available to all by 2013

14-19 key national suites and frameworks GCSEs, A Levels

Functional Skills

Foundation Learning Tier Progression Pathways

14-19 Diplomas

Diploma Subject Date AvailableConstruction and the Built EnvironmentCreative and MediaEngineeringSociety Health and Development Information Technology

September 2008

Environmental and Land-based StudiesManufacturing and Product DesignHair and Beauty StudiesBusiness, Administration and FinanceHospitality

September 2009

Travel and TourismRetailPublic ServicesSport and Leisure

September 2010

ScienceLanguagesHumanities

September 2011

Diploma Components

Skills, knowledge and understanding central to the chosen Diploma

At least 50% is applied

Employer designed and endorsed

Principal Learning Generic Learning Additional/ specialist learning

Functional skills: English, Maths, ICT

Personal, learning and thinking skills

Optional units

Can broaden and deepen learning programme

Progression pathways

Work experience (minimum 10 days), Project

Diploma Equivalence

Diploma Level Equivalence UCAS (max)

Foundation Diploma 5 GCSEs at L1 (grades D-G)

Extended Foundation Diploma 7 GCSEs at L2 (grades A*-C)

Higher Diploma 7 GCSEs at L2 (grades A*-C)

Extended Higher Diploma 9 GCSEs at L2 (grades A*-C)

Progression Diploma 2.5 A levels (grades A*-E) 300

Advanced Diploma 3.5 A levels, (grades A*-E) 420

Extended Advanced Diploma 4.5 A levels, (grades A*-E)

From a students perspective …

Summary

Aging Population

Changing Feeder Courses

Vocational Learning

Finance & Funding

Growing Part-time market

Growing international market

‘Traditional’ students will have a smaller share of the market

How does this effect you and your employment service?

What can you do?

• Find out what the recruitment plan is for your University.

– How are they reacting to the Diploma?– What are the course development plans?– How do they see the demographics and opinions/attitudes of

your students changing?