The Challenges of the International Climate Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency
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Transcript of The Challenges of the International Climate Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency
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Vleva26 October 2009
Sebastian Oberthür
The Challenges of the International Climate
Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Content
1. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
2. Structure of a post-2012 agreement
3. Contents of a post-2012 agreement
4. Status and prospects of negotiations
5. Implications for the Belgian EU Presidency
Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
1. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
• 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• 1997 Kyoto Protocol (industrialised countries emission targets)
• 2001/2005 Marrakesh Accords: the Kyoto Protocol’s rule book (Kyoto market mechanisms, reporting and review, sinks/forests, compliance)
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
2. Structure of post-2012 agreement
• Protocol track: negotiations on a second commitment period under the KP (since 2005)
• Convention track: negotiations on long-term cooperative action on climate change under UNFCCC (Bali Action Plan, 2007)
⇒Challenges:• 1 Protocol, 2 Protocols, else?
• What happens to the KP and the Marrakesh Accords?
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (1)
EU objectives
• Limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels (1996)
• Global GHG emissions need to peak by 2020 and decrease by at least 50% from 1990 level by 2050
• GHG emissions of developed countries to be reduced by 25-40% by 2020 and 80-95% by 2050 (baseline 1990)
• GHG emissions of more advanced developing countries to be reduced by 15-30% below Business-As-Usual by 2020
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (2)
• Overarching: What level of ambition? How much differentiation between developed and developing countries?
• Developed countries
• Kyoto-type emission targets? Comparability?
• Kyoto-type reporting and review system?
• Treatment of sinks?
• Kyoto-type compliance system?
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (3)
• Developing countries
• “Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs)”
• What and how (nature, governance, link to financing)?
• Reporting and review
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (4)
• Financing
• How much and from which sources (public, private/markets, new/innovative mechanisms)?
• How much for what (mitigation, adaptation, technology transfer, forests)?
• Governance: which institutions and procedures, which new funds (if any), who decides?
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (5)
• Adaptation
• Technology development and transfer
• Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)
• Emissions from international transport
• Reform of existing and establishment of new market mechanisms (sectoral mechanisms)
• Capacity building, institutions/procedures, etc.
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (6)
• Challenges:
• How to achieve agreement on broad concepts and principled matters?
• How to elaborate and agree on more detailed implementing rules?
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
4. Status/prospects of negotiations
• KP track: detailed proposals, but no agreement – structure of future agreement?
• Convention track:
• a lot of negotiating text(s)
• Moving towards definition of broad political concepts (leaving detailed legal texts and implementing rules to be elaborated later)
• Unclear link with/role of KP and Marrakesh Accords
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
4. Status/prospects of negotiations (2)
⇒A Copenhagen Agreement is still possible, although by no means certain.
⇒In any event, Copenhagen will require a substantial follow-up (timeline uncertain).
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
5. Belgian Presidency (1)
The role of the EU Presidency
• EU spokesperson in international climate negotiations (COP, CMP, subsidiary bodies)
• Main EU representative in external climate policy in general (heading the EU Troika)
• Chairing of responsible Council Working Party: leading and brokering of internal agreement (Council Conclusions and position papers)
• Chairing of various Council expert groups under the Working Party
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
5. Belgian Presidency (2)
Scenarios for 2010
• In any event, international climate policy and negotiations will remain at the top of the international agenda.
• Intensity not completely clear yet, but it is likely to be more than is scheduled so far.
• Scope of internal discussions dependent on international progress: moving to 30%? Financing? Forests? …?
International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency
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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
5. Belgian Presidency (3)
• Managing EU external climate policy will constitute a major task of the Belgian EU Presidency in 2010.
• Successful execution of this task will require advancing preparations and investing the necessary resources NOW:
• Exact needs assessment and strategy for dealing with different scenarios
• Pooling/activation/coordination of resources within Belgium: there needs to be a team that “runs the show”
• Coordination with the European Commission and other Member States