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The Challenges of the Greek CrisisPosted on August 1, 2015 by Yves Smith

By Joseph Joyce. Originally published at Capital Ebbs and Flows

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The Greek crisis has abated, but not ended. Representatives of the “troika” of theEuropean Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund

returned to Athens for talks with the Greek government about a new bailout. This pauseallows an accounting of the many challenges that the events in Greece pose to theinternational community.

The main challenge, of course, is to the Greek government itself, which must implementthe fiscal and other measures contained in the agreement with the Europeangovernments. These include steps to liberalize labor markets as well as open up

protected sectors of the economy. While these structural reforms should promotegrowth over time, in the short-run they will lead to layoffs and reorganizations. At thesame time, Prime Minister Alex Tsipras must oversee tax rises and cuts in spending.

The combined impact of all these measures, which follow the virtual shutdown of theeconomy during the protracted negotiations with the European governments, willpostpone any resumption in growth that past efforts may have generated.

It is not clear how long the Greek public will endure further misery. Any form of debtrestructuring may give policymakers some justification to continue with the agreement.New elections will clarify the degree of political support for the pact. But the possibility of an exit from the Eurozone has not been removed, either in the eyes of Greek politicians

or those of officials of other governments.

The Greek crisis, however, is not the only hazard that the Eurozone faces. TheEurozone’s government have yet to come to terms with the effects of the globalfinancial crisis on its members’ finances. A split prevails between those countries thatally themselves with the German position that debt must be repaid and those that seekwith France to find some sort of middle ground. Other European countries withdebt/GDP ratios of over 100% include Belgium, Portugal, and Italy. Weak economicgrowth could push any of them into a situation where the costs of refinancing couldbecome daunting. How would the Eurozone governments respond? Would they bail outanother member? If so, would the terms differ from those imposed on Greece? WouldEuropean banks be able to pass the distressed debt on to their own governments?

In the long-term, the governments of the Eurozone face the dilemma of how to reconcilecentralized rule-making with national sovereignty. The ECB, for example, has beengranted supervisory oversight of the banks in the Eurozone. It will exercise directoversight of over 100 banks deemed to be “significant,” while sharing responsibility withnational supervisors for the remaining approximately 3,500 banks. The ECB has a

Supervisory Board, supported by a Steering Committee, to plan and executes itssupervisory tasks, which supposedly allows it to separate its bank supervisory functionfrom its role in setting monetary policy. All these agencies must work out their

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respective jurisdictions and responsibilities. Meanwhile, theEuropean Commission, whichoversees fiscal policies, must deal with requests for exemptions from its budget

guidelines by governments with faltering growth. But if it shows flexibility in enforcing itsown rules, it will be derided as weak and ineffective.

The IMF faces its own set of challenges. The IMF was sharply criticized for its responseto the wave of crises that struck emerging markets in the last 1990s and early 2000s,beginning with Mexico in 1994 and extending to Turkey and Argentina in 2001. Criticscharged that the IMF was slow to respond to the rapid “sudden stops” of capital

outflows that set off and exacerbated the crises. When the Fund did act, it attached toomany conditions to its programs; moreover, these conditions were harsh andinappropriate for crises based on capital outflows.

The global financial crisis gave the IMF a second chance to demonstrate its crisis-management abilities (for a full account, see here). The Managing Director at the time,Dominique Strauss-Kahn, seized the opportunity to redeem the IMF ‘s reputation, as wellas reestablish his own political career in France. The IMF lent quickly to its members,attached relatively few conditions to the loans, and allowed the use of fiscal measures tostabilize domestic economies. The result was less severe adjustment, the avoidance of excessive exchange rate movements and a resumption of economic growth. By the

time the global economy recovered, the IMF had proven that it could respond in aflexible manner to a financial emergency.

The IMF’s response in 2010 to the Greek debt crisis was very different. The IMF’s loanto Greece was the first to a Eurozone member; moreover, the loan was much largerthan any the IMF had extended before, whether measured by the total amount of creditor as a percentage of the borrowing country’s quota at the Fund. To make the loan, theIMF had to overlook one of it own guidelines for granting “exceptional access” by amember to Fund credit. Such loans were to be made only if the borrowing government’sdebt would be sustainable in the medium-term. Greece’s debt burden did not pass thiscriterion, so the Fund justified its actions on the grounds that there was a risk of “international systemic spillovers.”

The IMF’s involvement in the Greek program was also unusual in another sense: theIMF’s contribution, as large as it was, was still smaller than that of the Europeangovernments. The IMF was, in effect, a “junior partner.” While it had worked with othergovernments before (such as the U.S. when it lent to Mexico in 1994-95), this was thefirst time that the IMF was not in a lead position. This may have initially made it reluctant

to disagree with the other members of the troika.

The subse uent contraction in the Greek econom far exceeded the IMF’s forecasts.

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The IMF later admitted that it underestimated the size of the multipliers for the fiscalpolicies contained in the program in a paper co-authored by the head of the IMF’sResearch Department, Olivier Blanchard (see also here). The failure to properly estimatethe impact of these conditions calls into doubt the basic premises of the 2010 and 2012programs.

More recently, the IMF has challenged its European partners over their projections forthe Greek debt, as well as the budget and fiscal targets contained in the latestagreement. The Fund claims that the debt projections are much too optimistic. Greece’s

debt will only be sustainable if there is debt relief on a much larger scale than theEuropean governments have been willing to undertake. Moreover, the IMF states that itwill not be part of any new programs for Greece if debt relief is not a component.

The public admission of error and the rebukes of the European governments will onlypartially restore the IMF’s reputation. The generous treatment of Greece as well asIreland and Portugal reinforces the belief that the European countries and the U.S.control the IMF. The members of the European Union have a total quota share of almostone-third, much larger than their share of world GDP. This voting share combined withthe U.S. quota gives these countries almost half of all the voting shares at the IMF. Theneed for a realignment of the quotas to give the emerging market nations a larger share

has long been acknowledged, but approval of the reform measures is mired in the U.S.Congress.

Another aspect of European and U.S. control of the “Bretton Woods twins”—the IMF andthe World Bank—has been their selection of the heads of these organizations. All theManaging Directors of the IMF have been Europeans, and until the appointment of Ms.Lagarde, European males. All the heads of the World Bank have been U.S. citizens. Ms.Lagarde’s term expires next July, and the pressure to name a non-European will betremendous. How the Europeans and U.S. respond to this challenge will go a long way indetermining whether these institutions will be shunted aside by the emerging market

nations in favor of institutions that they can control.

The last challenge of the Greek crisis comes for the Federal Reserve. Federal ReserveChair Janet Yellen has been explaining that a rise in the Fed’s policy rate, the FederalFunds rate, is likely to occur later this year. This forecast, however, is contingent oncontinued economic growth and favorable labor market conditions. These plans could bethreatened by any financial volatility that followed a disruption in the latest Greecebailout.

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exchange rate. The euro, which has been depreciating, could fall lower when the Fedraises rates while the ECB keeps its refinancing rate at 0.05%. A further appreciation of the dollar would threaten U.S. exports, thus endangering a recovery.

The Fed also faces concerns about the impact of its policy initiatives on the worldeconomy. The IMF is worried about how a rate rise would affect the global economy.

Companies that borrowed in dollars through bonds and bank loans will be adverselyaffected by the combined effects of an interest rate rise and a dollar appreciation.

Greece’s GDP accounts for only 0.4% of world GDP and about 1.3% of the EuropeanUnion’s total output. But the global financial crisis demonstrated how financial linkagesacross sectors and countries can disrupt economic activity no matter what their source.

The response to these incidents by national and international authorities can risk globalstability if they are based on self-interest and organizational agendas. Commitments tocooperation disappear quickly when national concerns are threatened.

(A Powerpoint version of this post is available here.)

This entry was posted in Corporate governance, Economic fundamentals, Europe, GuestPost, Politics, Regulations and regulators on August 1, 2015 by Yves Smith.

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