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Transcript of The Challenge of Global Aging how demography will reshape the world of the 21 st century Richard...
The Challenge of Global Aging
how demography will reshape
the world of the 21st century
Richard Jackson
CSIS Global Aging Initiative
White House Conference on Aging
July 20, 2005
The whole world is aging—and today’s developed countries are leading the way.The whole world is aging—and today’s
developed countries are leading the way.
8% 9%10%
12%13%
14%16%
19%
23%25%
26%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6%8%
10%
13%15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Developed World Developing World
Percent of PopulationAged 65 & Over: History and UN Projection
Source: UN (2005)
Year 2005
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
Men Women
Population in Thousands
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1950
median age
28.6
THIS IS
WHERE WE
WERE IN
1950
year
1950
median age
28.6
THIS IS
WHERE WE
WERE IN
1950
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1955
median age
29.0
year
1955
median age
29.0
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1960
median age
29.6
year
1960
median age
29.6
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1965
median age
29.8
year
1965
median age
29.8
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1970
median age
30.6
year
1970
median age
30.6
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1975
median age
30.9
year
1975
median age
30.9
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1980
median age
31.9
year
1980
median age
31.9
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1985
median age
33.1
year
1985
median age
33.1
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1990
median age
34.4
year
1990
median age
34.4
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
1995
median age
35.8
year
1995
median age
35.8
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2000
median age
37.3
year
2000
median age
37.3
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2005
median age
38.7
THIS IS
WHERE WE
ARE TODAY
year
2005
median age
38.7
THIS IS
WHERE WE
ARE TODAY
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2010
median age
40.0
year
2010
median age
40.0
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2015
median age
41.2
year
2015
median age
41.2
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2020
median age
42.3
year
2020
median age
42.3
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2025
median age
43.4
year
2025
median age
43.4
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2030
median age
44.5
year
2030
median age
44.5
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2035
median age
45.4
year
2035
median age
45.4
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2040
median age
46.0
year
2040
median age
46.0
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2045
median age
46.3
year
2045
median age
46.3
Men Women
Population in Thousands
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
Pyramid inversion in the developed world—1950 to 2050.
More Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility ScenarioMore Developed Regions: UN Constant Fertility Scenario
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
year
2050
median age
46.4
THIS IS
WHERE WE
WILL BE IN
2050
year
2050
median age
46.4
THIS IS
WHERE WE
WILL BE IN
2050
Five Challenges
The fiscal challenge.The fiscal challenge.
Declining support ratio of workers to retirees
Rising cost of pay-as-you-go retirement benefits
Large tax hikes, large benefit cuts, or exploding public debt
Growing political paralysis over unpopular budget choices
The number of workers available to support each pensioner will decline.The number of workers available to support each pensioner will decline.
4.3
2.7
2.3
3.5
2.6
2.1
1.2
2.5
2.1
1.20.9
1.81.61.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
US UK Japan Canada France Germany Italy
2000 2030Source: IMF (1996)
Ratio of Contributors to Retirees in Public Pension Systems: 2000 & 2030
two taxpayers for each retiree
Public retirement benefits will consume a much larger share of GDP.
Public retirement benefits will consume a much larger share of GDP.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000 2050 2050
Health-CareBenefits
PublicPensions
*Figures are unweighted averages. Source; EC/OECD (2001) and CSIS (2002).
Public Retirement Benefits as a Percent of GDP, DevelopedCountry Average,* 2000 and 2050
10.9%
17.8%
23.4%
Official Projection
CSIS Projection
Elders in most countries are highly dependent on government benefits.Elders in most countries are highly dependent on government benefits.
All 3rd Households Quintile
US 35% 54%Canada 42 % 62%Sweden 57% 70%Netherlands 54% 74%UK 50% 75%France 67% 78%Italy 59% 83%Germany 61% 84%
Public Benefits as a Percent of After-Tax Elderly Income
Source: CSIS (2002)Source: CSIS (2002)
The labor challenge.The labor challenge.
Shrinking workforces and labor shortages
Aging workers and aging union memberships
Pressure to increase immigration—and
popular backlash
Growth in cross-border outsourcing
The growth challenge.The growth challenge.
Long-term zero or negative GDP growth
Declining rates of savings and investment
Falling demand for infrastructure (highways,
housing) and capital goods (offices, mills)
Shrinking consumer markets, overcapacity,
and declining profits
The financial challenge.The financial challenge.
Danger of “Great Depreciation” in financial markets when Boomers retire
Unsustainable government borrowing to fund pensions
Possible collapse of regional economic entities like the EMU
Capital-flow reversals: Emergence of developed debtors (Japan? Germany?) and developing creditors (China? Mexico?)
The geopolitical challenge.The geopolitical challenge.
Will youthful developing societies…
► feel demographic pressure to expand?
► translate faster economic growth into
global leadership?
Will aging developed societies…
► find the resources to meet their security
commitments?
► be willing to sacrifice for the sake of
the future?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112
If demography is destiny, global leadership may pass to the “Third” world.
If demography is destiny, global leadership may pass to the “Third” world.
1950
ChinaSoviet UnionIndiaUnited StatesJapanIndonesiaGermanyBrazilUnited KingdomItalyFranceBangladesh
2000
ChinaIndiaUnited StatesIndonesiaBrazilRussian Fed.PakistanBangladeshJapanNigeriaMexicoGermany
2050
IndiaChinaUnited StatesPakistanIndonesiaNigeriaBangladeshBrazilCongoEthiopiaMexicoPhilippines
12 Largest Countries Ranked by Population
Source: UN (2001)
The US Age Wavein Global Perspective
The United States enjoys considerable advantages. The United States enjoys
considerable advantages.
The youngest population in the developed world
The developed world’s deepest capital markets and most flexible labor markets
A relatively inexpensive Social Security system
A well-developed private pension system
America’s age wave is comparatively small.America’s age wave is comparatively small.America’s age wave is comparatively small.America’s age wave is comparatively small.
12%
16%
13%
16%19%
20% 20%20%
24%27% 27%
31%
39% 39%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
US UK Canada France Germany Italy Japan
2005 2050
Percent of the PopulationAged 65 or Over, by Country
Source: UN (2005)
In many fast-aging countries, the working-age population will shrink dramatically.
In many fast-aging countries, the working-age population will shrink dramatically.
27%
9%
-9%
-25%
-37% -38%
-1%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Source: UN (2005)
Percent Change in the Working-AgePopulation (Aged 15-64), 2005 to 2050
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
US
France
UK
Germany
Japan
Italy
* Assumes constant labor-force participation and productivity growth of 1 percent per year.
Source: UN (2001) and CSIS (2004)
Growth in Real GDP by Country,* Year 2000=100, 2000-2050
Countries with slowly growing workforces may have slowly growing economies.
Countries with slowly growing workforces may have slowly growing economies.
The United States must also overcome some real obstacles.
The United States must also overcome some real obstacles.
The world’s most expensive health-care system
Large gaps in private pension coverage
Unsustainable budget and current account deficits
An entrenched “entitlement ethos,” a powerful senior lobby, and growing political gridlock
Older voters will increasingly dominate the U.S. electorate.
Older voters will increasingly dominate the U.S. electorate.
39%44%30%
40%38%
35%
16%23%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1966 2002 2038*
Per
cent
of A
ll V
oter
s
Age 65 & Over
Age 45-64
Age 18-44
* Based on age-specific voting rates in 2002 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2004) and CSIS (2005)
Voters in U.S. Congressional Elections, as a Percent of All Voters, History and CSIS Projection*