The Case for Driverless Cars
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Transcript of The Case for Driverless Cars
The Case for Driverless Cars
1 May, 2012
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page
Executive Summary 3
Introduction 4
The Market 5
Driverless Cars 6
Value Proposition 7
Issues 8
Technology 10
Conclusion 11
References and Further Reading 12
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 3
Executive Summary
Driverless cars have been a dream for drivers around the world since the invention of the automobile
more than 100 years ago, but have yet to be realized on a mass scale. Recent demonstrations and
competitions, utilizing corporate and government investments, have shown that driverless car
technology is maturing to the point where such vehicles may be commercially viable within a decade.
In 2010, more than 35,000 people died in crashes in the United States, costing the economy $230 billion
per year and consuming a greater share of national healthcare costs than any other cause of illness or
injury. Traffic congestion is an $87 billion annual drain on the U.S. economy, including 4.2 billion lost
hours or one work week for every traveler.
The U.S. consumer car market is a potential market for early adoption of driverless cars. With a strong
desire for safety and large amounts of congestion, driverless cars offer solutions to a variety of problems
for consumers. Adding in gasoline, taxes, insurance, and loans, a U.S. consumer pays on average $9,000
per year on his or her car, with 10-16 million cars sold annually in the U.S.
A variety of non-technical issues remain in order to field driverless cars. Legal, liability, regulatory,
culture, and privacy concerns all need to be addressed in order for consumers to be able to use, and
desire to use, driverless cars. Once these issues are sufficiently addressed, consumers will have the final
say as to whether they trust and desire the capability of driverless cars enough to give up control and
embrace the many potential benefits that driverless cars present.
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 4
Introduction
Driverless cars are one of the great technological advances inspired by science fiction that have yet to be
realized. On par with space colonization and robotic maids, driverless cars have the potential to
positively benefit humanity, but they have been seemingly unobtainable despite technology advances.
In recent years this outlook has changed, mainly due to investments by the U.S. government and
innovative companies. Traditional U.S. automobile manufacturers, European and Japanese
manufactures and even an Internet search company are all developing automated vehicle technologies
that are currently being tested around the world.
In this scan, we look at the current U.S. consumer car market, how it might change with driverless cars,
and some emerging issues as technology hurdles are overcome.
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 5
The Market
For this scan we will focus on the U.S. consumer car market. This market is a subset of the potential
applications of driverless car capabilities but is well quantified. Assuming consumer trends continue,
basic value propositions for driverless cars can be understood. Below are a variety of statistics to help
understand the largest addressable market and current vehicle use.
Average Annual Miles 13,476 miles
Average Annual Car Cost (15,000 miles per year) $8,776
Licensed Drivers (2009) 209.618M
Vehicles in Operation (2009) 248.460M
Number of Daily Vehicle Trips per Driver (2009) 3.0
Average Vehicle Trip Length (2009) 9.7 miles
Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel per Driver (2009) 29.0 miles
Annual Sales 14.13M
Average Miles Driven Over Life of Car 152,137
Average Life of Car in Years 25
*Source: NATA DATA 2011. http://www.nada.org/Publications/NADADATA/2011/default, accessed on 3/28/12.
0M
4M
8M
12M
16M
20M
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
United States New-Vehicle Sales, by Manufacturer* Other Imports
Volkswagon
Nissan
Honda
Toyota
General Motors
Ford
Chrysler
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 6
Driverless Cars
Automation Trend — Car manufacturers continually add automation features to improve vehicle safety.
For example, Antilock Brake Systems (ABS) take operator input (hitting the brake pedal) and decide
which brakes to use and when. Adaptive cruise controls adjust car speed to match traffic. Automated
parallel parking, lane departure warning and drowsiness assists are steps toward vehicle automation.
Shift in Authority — Research in many companies is pushing automation technology to fully automated
vehicle control. In such a state, the steering wheel, brake and gas pedals are not needed, as the operator
has no direct control of the vehicle. In a driverless car, the vehicle’s occupants have no tactical control or
no authority over the vehicle’s actions moment to moment. Occupants retain operational control,
determining destination and, if desired, what route to take. With this shift in authority come many
positive advantages described in the Value Proposition section, but one major question: Who has the
responsibility for the vehicle? This is addressed in the Issues section.
End State Use Case — Picture yourself stuck late at a meeting and you can’t pick up your son from
school to go to his baseball game. You send your car to pick him up. As he gets in, you talk to him from
your camera phone explaining you will be a couple minutes late. The car drops your son off in time for
warm-ups, picks you up and delivers you in time to see him come up to bat.
Business Models – With this new capability, new car ownership business models could emerge. Two
future models are addressed below.
As-Is: Consumers will still buy cars, similar to today. Cars will still be customable, evolving to
provide more comforts to occupants. Cars become mobile Wi-Fi hot spots and more in-car
services are added, adding to the utility of in-car time. There is potential to rent personal cars
out to others through an intermediate service. Homes, businesses and shopping areas will
integrate more charging stations for electric vehicles.
Car as Service: Rather than owning a car, consumers pay an annual cost to use a car. Cars are
reserved or called as needed, much like a taxi service. Once called, a car is dispatched with no
one inside to the location of the consumer. A car size and type is specified when reserving. A
ride to work may use a smaller, cheaper, efficient vehicle, while a ski trip or hardware store trip
will require a bigger vehicle. Cars are no longer customable and may display more
advertisements. Electric vehicle charging stations are centralized, making them more efficient.
Cars can drive themselves to station without need of picking up occupants.
Personal Ownership Car As Service
Cost to Consumer ↔ ↔
Vehicle Type Flexibility ↓ ↑
Vehicle Personalization ↑ ↓
Electric Vehicle Friendliness ↓ ↑
Price Point $9k per Year Unknown
↑ - Better ↓ - Worse ↔ - Same
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 7
Value Proposition
Current and Emerging Needs Driverless Cars Safety In 2010 more than 35,000 people lost their
lives in crashes in the United States
Cost of crashes to the U.S. economy is more than $230 billion per year and consumes a greater share of national healthcare costs than any other cause of illness or injury
Drunk Driving:
4 million adults drink and drive each year
112 million drinking and driving episodes in 2010
10,839 people died in 2009 from a crash in which at least one driver had a BAC of 0.08 or greater.
Faster reaction time than a human
Can see 360 degrees and process thousands of Vehicle-to-Vehicle and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure information packets a second
Programmed to follow local traffic laws
Never gets distracted, tired or impaired
Potential to dramatically reduce crashes and car related injuries and deaths.
Efficiency Traffic congestion is an $87.2 billion annual drain on the U.S. economy
4.2 billion lost hours (one work week for every traveler)
Up to 10 percent of police time is spent dealing with traffic.
Can follow each other closer, increasing existing road capacity
Can react faster and together in starting and stopping, increasing capacity through intersections
Reduced car accidents will decrease traffic congestion.
Pollution 2.8 billion gallons of wasted fuel each year
22 percent of CO2 emissions come from cars and trucks.
Increase capacity on roads, reduce car accidents, efficiently redirect themselves to reduce backups
Allow for more efficient and effective use of recharging infrastructure for electric vehicles.
Accessibility 53.5 million people over the age of 65 in the U.S. by 2020
22 million people over the age of 75 in 2020, expected to double by 2050.
Allow for mobility for those who may have difficulty safely driving a vehicle: blind, aging, physically impaired.
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 8
Issues
Liability (Legal/Insurance): There are a variety of potential legal issues for driverless cars, the biggest
one being liability. Who is responsible during a crash? If the occupant has no responsibility or authority
over the car’s movements, can they be held responsible? Will car manufacturers take responsibility?
Who is responsible for vehicle maintenance and liable when a maintenance failure causes a crash?
There are court cases where car manufactures have been sued for a variety of issues, even if the car
functioned as designed and advertised (see Geier v. American Honda Motor Co).
Personal Cars — In most crashes, one or both drivers are liable for any damages. If the car had
any defect, the manufacturer could be liable. In an extreme case, a manufacturer was found
liable in an accident because a car did not have the appropriate airbags. It was determined that
given the vehicle’s price point this safety feature should have been standard equipment.
Consumers see the costs of these liabilities in insurance and car prices.
Taxis – Yes, there is a driver in the taxi. However, if a person is injured while riding in a taxi, who
is liable? The taxi company has the money, and thus the insurance, to handle property damage
and injury claims. Consumers fund the insurance through taxi fares.
Public Transit – Yes, most public transit systems still have a driver or an operator. When getting
onto a bus or light rail, a person gives up the authority and responsibility of operating the
vehicle. Where is the liability when a bus or light rail crashes? It lies with the transit authority.
Consumers see this cost in taxes and ticket prices.
Air Travel – Yes, there is a pilot onboard the plane. But when an accident happens, the airline is
generally held as the responsible party. The consumer sees this cost in airfare fees.
The cost burden for driverless car accidents will be placed on the
consumer, whether they are up-front vehicle costs or regular
service costs like insurance or ticket prices.
Regulatory: Several states are moving legislation forward to support driverless cars. Nevada is leading
the way with recently passed legislation, but many other states (California, Hawaii, Florida and
Oklahoma) are following. New state laws may not be enough, as there are federal and treaty issues that
may need updating.
Culture: U.S. consumers consider their car a symbol of personal freedom and style. Driving for the first
time on your own, generally at age 16, is a major rite of passage for any young adult. Driverless cars
have the potential of allowing this freedom at a younger age, negating the benefit of any rite of passage.
Many consumers consider their car a part of their personal style, connecting to certain brands that
project particular qualities. Certain business models of driverless cars may limit such personal branding.
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 9
Car manufacturers are continually evolving to meet customer needs so as driverless cars evolve the car
culture, brands will adapt.
Privacy: Driverless cars, along with vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications, will
broadcast regular positioning information for a variety of safety and efficiency reasons. For example, a
vehicle that drives over a patch of black ice can call out to warn other cars and alert safety crews to fix
the patch. Additionally, other information gathered if a person rents a vehicle, including passengers,
pickup and drop off times, and what occupants are doing inside their cars, have the potential to be
monitored, depending on the technology and business models implemented. This information can be
used to better tailor a product for a person’s needs, but will also bring up personal privacy concerns.
Existing laws concerning personal privacy while traveling may be challenged if governments and
companies want access to some of the travel data. These concerns may limit what business models are
accepted by the public and what safety, navigation, and passenger information is shared.
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 10
Technology
The last 10 years have shown a great leap in public interest in driverless car technologies. This was
spawned by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Grand Challenge in 2004 and
2005 and the DAPRA Urban Challenge in 2007. Car manufacturers around the world have been
developing their own driverless capabilities to either bring driverless cars to market or test new safety
features. Google, hiring the leaders from the Stanford DARPA Grand Challenge team, has developed its
own driverless car and logged 200,000 miles between two vehicles.
Driverless car technologies tend to fall into one of three areas: platform, sensors and software.
Platform — Most driverless cars rely on a standard vehicle platform and are augmented with
new sensors and software. As driverless cars evolve, human interfaces such as the steering
wheel, brakes and accelerator may disappear and interiors will change to allow for easier non-
driving activities.
Sensors — To see the external environment, driverless cars will continue the trend of more
sensors on vehicles. The human eye is quick to adjust to a variety of environments, but most
sensors have trouble adapting to changing light conditions, shadows and different background
colors. As such, driverless capabilities will rely on a large suite of sensors to best create an
accurate picture of the vehicle’s surrounding environment. Costs will come down as sensors,
traditionally bought in smaller numbers for use on military or advanced systems, are mass
produced for the consumer vehicle market. Sensors used in driverless cars include:
Electro-Optical/Infrared (EO/IR) Cameras: These cameras are currently used for lane
departure and reverse collision detection. Their use will increase as software is better
able to use the data.
Radar: A popular sensor in cars for reverse collision detection and adaptive cruise
control. This sensor’s use will increase to potentially encompass the entire car.
Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR/LADAR): LIDAR sensors have been used on
experimental vehicles for a long time but have been too expensive for mass use. They
give a large amount of accurate relative distance data and can look out tens of meters
around the vehicle.
GPS: Though not accurate enough to determine which lane a vehicle is in, GPS will
remain an important sensor in localization.
Vehicle to Vehicle and Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2X) Communications: This sensor will
listen to broadcasts from other vehicles (speed, direction location, hazards, etc) and
infrastructure (stop light timing, lane closure, etc.) for safe and efficient navigation.
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 11
Software — LIDAR and cameras can produce tens of thousands of data points a second and only
recently have computational capabilities been able to utilize that much information in real time.
Fusion and localization algorithms that previously only used small data samples can now take in
a very large amount of information and map against existing and emerging world models. This
allows for better localization of a vehicle’s position, its surroundings, and the actions of other
vehicles and people in the area. It takes a human more than a second between the time he or
she sees something in the road and is able to respond (brake, steer, etc.). A computer software
suite will be monitoring the road thousands of times per second and able to calculate and
execute an appropriate response to a situation in a small fraction of a second. Additionally the
software takes in information from sensors and other cars that would be impossible for a human
to process in time to make a decision.
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 12
Conclusion
Driverless cars have great potential to support future personal and commercial transport action. A large
set of issues are being address by government, industry and academia to support the safe introduction
of driverless cars into the marketplace.
Technology is maturing at a pace that will support mass market driverless capabilities within a decade.
This addressable market is greater than 10 million but may change if car ownership models evolve to
better utilize driverless cars. Future business opportunities are emerging that address these new
ownership models.
Ultimately, consumers will have the final say as to whether they trust and desire the capability enough
to give up vehicle control and embrace the proposed benefits of driverless cars.
Gratitude to the Community
A large community is working to tackle a lot of the issues addressed here. Many examples of their fine
work are linked below. A special thank you goes out to all of the reviewers of this paper and to everyone
who is helping to make Driverless Cars a reality. Please feel free to contact us at [email protected].
AUVSI: The Case for Driverless Cars 13
References and Further Reading
Books & Magazines:
http://issuu.com/auvsi/docs/missioncritical_spring_final_hi
http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/item/default.asp?ttype=2&tid=12044
http://tomvanderbilt.com/traffic/the-book/
http://www.carjacked.org/
Papers:
http://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/drinkinganddriving/?s_cid=vitalsigns-092-bb
http://www.nesl.edu/userfiles/file/lawreview/Vol44/1/Saulen.pdf
http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/node/6798
http://www.path.berkeley.edu/PATH/Publications/PDF/PRR/2009/PRR-2009-28.pdf
http://www.cdc.gov/injury/pdfs/cost-MV-a.pdf
http://www.aaaexchange.com/Assets/Files/201145734460.DrivingCosts2011.pdf
http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/809952.pdf
http://cta.ornl.gov/data/tedb30/Edition30_Chapter08.pdf
Websites and Blogs:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Driverless_car
http://www.pointclouds.org/blog/hrcs/
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/
http://www.its.dot.gov/
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html
http://ycharts.com/indicators/auto_sales
http://www.nada.org/Publications/NADADATA/2011/default
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geier_v._American_Honda_Company