€¦ · The Car Market analysis Monthly Forecast Car Market Forecast : WORLD PC November 2014...

The Car Market analysis Monthly Forecast

Car Market Forecast : WORLD PC November 2014

November

'14

November

'13

% Chg

14/13

Jan‐Nov.

'14

Jan ‐Nov.

'13

% Chg

14/13

Full Year

'14

Full Year

'13

%Chg

14/13CHINA 1,775,300 1,696,340 4.7 18,098,000 16,150,997 12.1 19,957,561 17,920,997 11.4

AUSTRIA 21,619 23,350 ‐7.4 285,927 298,204 ‐4.1 305,314 319,035 ‐4.3BELGIUM 29,739 32,023 ‐7.1 455,328 460,984 ‐1.2 482,350 486,065 ‐0.8CZECH REPUBLIC 16,365 14,697 11.3 175,626 150,197 16.9 191,819 164,736 16.4DENMARK 15,155 15,896 ‐4.7 173,624 167,899 3.4 188,069 182,147 3.3FINLAND 7,220 7,463 ‐3.3 99,127 97,528 1.6 104,105 103,430 0.7GERMANY 250,082 254,651 ‐1.8 2,807,073 2,737,111 2.6 3,024,558 2,952,431 2.4FRANCE 135,067 138,829 ‐2.7 1,632,543 1,615,137 1.1 1,801,258 1,790,456 0.6GREECE 4,983 5,465 ‐8.8 64,835 54,448 19.1 68,773 58,696 17.2HUNGARY 5,901 4,942 19.4 61,384 51,114 20.1 66,963 56,140 19.3ITALIA 107,965 102,871 5.0 1,261,328 1,215,221 3.8 1,354,411 1,303,926 3.9NETHERLANDS 32,507 40,357 ‐19.5 353,988 377,805 ‐6.3 375,886 416,968 ‐9.9POLAND 24,322 24,092 1.0 298,055 263,317 13.2 323,207 289,555 11.6PORTUGAL 11,686 8,810 32.6 130,826 97,287 34.5 143,616 105,921 35.6ROMANIA 5,669 5,474 3.6 64,577 54,479 18.5 69,519 61,145 13.7SLOVAKIA 5,484 5,668 ‐3.2 66,030 59,347 11.3 72,495 66,000 9.8SPAIN 65,122 55,451 17.4 781,868 662,190 18.1 852,064 722,703 17.9SWEDEN 25,916 24,779 4.6 276,804 243,176 13.8 304,404 269,599 12.9UNITED KINGDOM 172,327 159,581 8.0 2,310,237 2,111,819 9.4 2,470,007 2,264,737 9.1NORWAY 11,486 12,079 ‐4.9 131,553 130,756 0.6 142,727 142,151 0.4SWITZERLAND 23,672 24,882 ‐4.9 269,085 277,660 ‐3.1 297,910 307,156 ‐3.0

EUROPE 986,902 975,080 1.2 11,964,549 11,356,567 5.4 12,916,985 12,304,611 5.0USA 576,742 581,300 ‐0.8 7,031,242 6,970,900 0.9 7,658,447 7,584,700 1.0CANADA 53,868 56,011 ‐3.8 710,594 718,444 ‐1.1 756,987 761,575 ‐0.6

NORTH AMERICA 630,610 637,311 ‐1.1 7,741,836 7,689,344 0.7 8,415,434 8,346,275 0.8BRAZIL 211,006 223,748 ‐5.7 2,231,206 2,504,507 ‐10.9 2,463,376 2,763,718 ‐10.9MEXICO 72,236 64,486 12.0 647,010 622,156 4.0 727,297 698,217 4.2ARGENTINA 29,509 52,191 ‐43.5 393,957 622,232 ‐36.7 436,133 684,379 ‐36.3CHILE 18,319 23,437 ‐21.8 229,552 256,394 ‐10.5 254,135 286,588 ‐11.3

LATIN AMERICA 331,070 363,862 ‐9.0 3,501,725 4,005,289 ‐12.6 3,880,941 4,432,902 ‐12.5KOREA 127,950 119,195 7.3 1,307,605 1,251,707 4.5 1,429,264 1,375,252 3.9JAPAN 339,831 378,596 ‐10.2 4,339,233 4,203,068 3.2 4,653,310 4,562,282 2.0

JAPAN AREA 467,781 497,791 ‐6.0 5,646,838 5,454,775 3.5 6,082,574 5,937,534 2.4UKRAINE 6,802 15,444 ‐56.0 89,389 196,275 ‐54.5 97,228 213,322 ‐54.4

RUSSIA 229,439 231,982 ‐1.1 2,220,596 2,512,965 ‐11.6 2,475,080 2,777,222 ‐10.9VIETNAM 14,049 10,148 38.4 103,406 75,766 36.5 132,408 97,545 35.7THAILAND 69,937 93,393 ‐25.1 719,260 1,123,135 ‐36.0 858,457 1,310,516 ‐34.5INDONESIA 63,578 63,983 ‐0.6 757,524 772,985 ‐2.0 824,048 828,327 ‐0.5MALAYSIA 43,743 45,749 ‐4.4 484,196 478,416 1.2 576,392 576,655 0.0

ASEAN 212,424 229,019 ‐7.2 2,404,076 2,763,401 ‐13.0 2,625,318 2,994,772 ‐12.3INDIA 200,432 196,095 2.2 2,297,895 2,258,516 1.7 2,488,816 2,439,229 2.0

PAKISTAN 10,438 8,468 23.3 115,611 115,499 0.1 125,027 122,818 1.8TURKEY 59,695 64,117 ‐6.9 477,277 563,456 ‐15.3 572,825 664,655 ‐13.8IRAN 75,315 50,623 48.8 708,310 549,607 28.9 795,839 614,371 29.5

MIDDLE EAST 145,448 123,208 18.1 1,301,198 1,228,562 5.9 1,493,691 1,401,844 6.6NEW ZEALAND 8,063 7,453 8.2 83,838 76,065 10.2 90,983 82,436 10.4

AUSTRALIA 74,095 77,978 ‐5.0 808,232 823,736 ‐1.9 883,120 899,965 ‐1.9AUSTRALIA AREA 82,158 85,431 ‐3.8 892,070 899,801 ‐0.9 974,104 982,401 ‐0.8SOUTH AFRICA 33,278 34,267 ‐2.9 403,167 417,386 ‐3.4 435,391 450,269 ‐3.3

WORLD 5,101,644 5,085,830 0.3 56,561,339 54,933,878 3.0 61,843,123 60,201,378 2.7Actual data Forecast

CORAM 2014© No reproduction allowed Data processing and forecast by CORAM www.coram‐research.com 22/12/2014


Car Market Forecast : WORLD LCV November 2014

November

'14

November

'13

% Chg

14/13

Jan‐Nov.

'14

Jan ‐Nov.

'13

% Chg

14/13

Full Year

'14

Full Year

'13

%Chg

14/13CHINA 314,700 347,560 ‐9.5 3,438,600 3,707,952 ‐7.3 3,756,975 4,065,152 ‐7.6

AUSTRIA 2,363 2,379 ‐0.7 29,397 28,349 3.7 31,798 30,718 3.5BELGIUM 3,865 3,725 3.8 50,563 52,251 ‐3.2 53,552 55,370 ‐3.3CZECH REPUBLIC 1,203 1,054 14.1 12,502 10,486 19.2 13,888 11,660 19.1DENMARK 2,804 2,215 26.6 25,650 21,664 18.4 28,696 24,210 18.5FINLAND 818 786 4.1 9,991 9,717 2.8 10,851 10,566 2.7GERMANY 20,671 22,624 ‐8.6 212,669 194,299 9.5 232,496 212,777 9.3FRANCE 29,427 29,698 ‐0.9 338,376 330,863 2.3 372,448 364,989 2.0GREECE 339 337 0.6 4,252 3,251 30.8 4,642 3,472 33.7HUNGARY 1,613 1,489 8.3 14,371 9,923 44.8 16,356 11,427 43.1ITALIA 10,100 9,323 8.3 107,796 90,378 19.3 119,571 100,614 18.8NETHERLANDS 4,360 4,208 3.6 49,118 47,749 2.9 50,654 50,317 0.7POLAND 3,922 3,966 ‐1.1 41,699 37,358 11.6 46,134 42,040 9.7PORTUGAL 2,536 1,919 32.2 22,844 14,532 57.2 26,292 18,203 44.4SLOVAKIA 488 396 23.2 5,404 4,623 16.9 6,075 5,076 19.7SPAIN 8,693 7,586 14.6 103,916 76,934 35.1 113,277 85,400 32.6SWEDEN 3,566 3,184 12.0 37,948 33,507 13.3 42,357 37,391 13.3UNITED KINGDOM 26,516 22,647 17.1 297,251 250,807 18.5 321,527 271,895 18.3NORWAY 2,553 2,315 10.3 27,410 27,656 ‐0.9 30,488 30,874 ‐1.3SWITZERLAND 2,441 2,550 ‐4.3 26,845 28,839 ‐6.9 28,962 31,110 ‐6.9

EUROPE 130,744 124,869 4.7 1,456,525 1,302,616 11.8 1,590,786 1,429,360 11.3USA 717,135 656,700 9.2 7,906,035 7,206,800 9.7 8,693,482 7,946,200 9.4CANADA 84,826 79,765 6.3 1,003,087 943,304 6.3 1,082,140 1,015,541 6.6

NORTH AMERICA 801,961 736,465 8.9 8,909,122 8,150,104 9.3 9,775,622 8,961,741 9.1BRAZIL 69,146 64,798 6.7 748,206 739,166 1.2 826,371 816,185 1.2MEXICO 39,409 35,937 9.7 343,982 321,843 6.9 388,363 365,146 6.4ARGENTINA 9,652 19,735 ‐51.1 144,504 216,454 ‐33.2 160,183 239,749 ‐33.2CHILE 5,967 10,921 ‐45.4 73,878 83,821 ‐11.9 80,312 91,652 ‐12.4

LATIN AMERICA 124,174 131,391 ‐5.5 1,310,570 1,361,284 ‐3.7 1,455,229 1,512,732 ‐3.8JAPAN 61,551 65,148 ‐5.5 631,452 608,806 3.7 679,423 658,703 3.1

JAPAN AREA 61,551 65,148 ‐5.5 631,452 608,806 3.7 679,423 658,703 3.1INDONESIA 17,990 31,043 ‐42.0 292,806 322,309 ‐9.2 313,707 350,394 ‐10.5MALAYSIA 6,655 6,503 2.3 62,296 64,630 ‐3.6 76,062 79,136 ‐3.9

ASEAN 24,645 37,546 ‐34.4 361,757 393,442 ‐8.1 389,768 429,530 ‐9.3PAKISTAN 1,351 1,120 20.6 16,364 14,655 11.7 17,760 16,204 9.6TURKEY 20,926 18,900 10.7 154,222 194,072 ‐20.5 186,623 228,469 ‐18.3IRAN 75,315 50,623 48.8 708,310 549,607 28.9 795,839 614,371 29.5

MIDDLE EAST 22,277 20,020 11.3 170,586 208,727 ‐18.3 204,383 244,673 ‐16.5NEW ZEALAND 3,113 2,935 6.1 33,920 28,456 19.2 36,743 30,861 19.1

AUSTRALIA 18,137 18,946 ‐4.3 208,189 215,735 ‐3.5 227,860 236,262 ‐3.6AUSTRALIA AREA 21,250 21,881 ‐2.9 242,109 244,191 ‐0.9 264,602 267,123 ‐0.9SOUTH AFRICA 15,076 13,719 9.9 162,818 156,780 3.9 175,715 168,200 4.5

WORLD 1,516,953 1,500,156 1.1 16,691,296 16,151,636 3.3 18,301,059 17,756,786 3.1Actual data Forecast

CORAM 2014© No reproduction allowed Data processing and forecast by CORAM www.coram‐research.com 22/12/2014


Car Market Forecast : WORLD PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐1.6 YTY (%) 0.3 YTD (%) 3.0 FY (%) 2.7 FY 2014 =

Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD FY

2013 4,882,348 4,318,721 5,836,923 4,974,742 5,000,598 5,155,479 4,817,199 4,521,955 5,267,702 5,072,381 5,085,830 5,267,500 54,933,878 60,201,378

2014 5,001,011 4,542,304 6,476,318 5,033,586 5,173,784 5,278,527 4,876,319 4,534,771 5,360,516 5,182,559 5,101,644 5,281,784 56,561,339 61,843,123

2015 5,188,113 4,706,885 6,451,395 5,337,482 5,443,851 5,596,899 5,197,942 4,907,751 5,734,044 5,471,234 5,430,535 5,595,667 59,466,132 65,061,799

YTY (%) 2.4 5.2 11.0 1.2 3.5 2.4 1.2 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.3 0.3 3.0 2.7

Actual data Forecast

Data source: CORAM

61,843,123

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

2.4

5.2

11.0

1.2

3.52.4

1.20.3

1.8 2.2

0.3 0.3

3.0 2.7


CORAM 2014© No reproduction allowed Data processing and forecast by CORAM www.coram‐research.com Dec. 2014


Car Market Forecast : CHINA AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) 4.1 YTY (%) 4.7 YTD (%) 12.1 FY (%) 11.4 FY 2014 =


2013 1,725,500 1,111,900 1,585,500 1,441,400 1,396,900 1,403,453 1,237,569 1,353,235 1,593,500 1,605,700 1,696,340 1,770,000 16,150,997 17,920,997

2014 1,846,900 1,312,200 2,169,100 1,609,000 1,590,400 1,564,100 1,357,900 1,468,200 1,696,000 1,708,900 1,775,300 1,859,561 18,098,000 19,957,561

2015 2,028,630 1,447,076 2,066,128 1,764,078 1,732,983 1,726,456 1,545,542 1,660,026 1,895,211 1,907,893 1,989,724 2,067,158 19,763,748 21,830,906

YTY (%) 7.0 18.0 36.8 11.6 13.9 11.4 9.7 8.5 6.4 6.4 4.7 5.1 12.1 11.4


Data source: CORAM

19,957,561

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

7.0

18.0

36.8

11.613.9

11.49.7 8.5

6.4 6.44.7 5.1

12.1 11.4




Car Market Forecast : EUROPE AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐11.7 YTY (%) 1.2 YTD (%) 5.4 FY (%) 5.0 FY 2014 =


2013 917,738 828,941 1,346,819 1,081,271 1,083,393 1,175,489 1,020,419 686,405 1,196,442 1,044,570 975,080 948,044 11,356,567 12,304,611

2014 964,693 892,045 1,486,092 1,126,194 1,129,396 1,226,090 1,077,395 699,127 1,266,998 1,109,617 986,902 952,436 11,964,549 12,916,985

2015 999,335 904,214 1,524,719 1,148,121 1,167,214 1,265,795 1,083,688 750,878 1,284,528 1,098,618 1,019,483 961,545 12,246,593 13,208,139

YTY (%) 5.1 7.6 10.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 5.6 1.9 5.9 6.2 1.2 0.5 5.4 5.0


Data source: CORAM

12,916,985

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

5.1

7.6

10.3

4.2 4.2 4.3

5.6

1.9

5.9 6.2

1.20.5

5.4 5.0




Car Market Forecast : NORTH AMERICA AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐1.9 YTY (%) ‐1.1 YTD (%) 0.7 FY (%) 0.8 FY 2014 =


2013 562,211 645,431 809,404 715,996 794,045 764,287 710,274 803,672 619,895 626,818 637,311 656,931 7,689,344 8,346,275

2014 512,777 604,380 806,631 733,585 856,332 761,652 744,960 818,839 629,630 642,440 630,610 673,598 7,741,836 8,415,434

2015 559,676 637,910 796,908 745,252 825,305 767,044 741,712 788,182 668,672 658,464 631,109 682,659 7,820,234 8,502,893

YTY (%) ‐8.8 ‐6.4 ‐0.3 2.5 7.8 ‐0.3 4.9 1.9 1.6 2.5 ‐1.1 2.5 0.7 0.8


Data source: CORAM

8,415,434

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐8.8

‐6.4

‐0.3

2.5

7.8

‐0.3

4.9

1.9 1.62.5

‐1.1

2.5

0.7 0.8




Car Market Forecast : SOUTH AFRICA AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐18.4 YTY (%) ‐2.9 YTD (%) ‐3.4 FY (%) ‐3.3 FY 2014 =


2013 40,865 36,390 37,612 34,496 37,191 37,372 40,272 38,892 39,941 40,088 34,267 32,883 417,386 450,269

2014 38,008 34,414 36,798 30,848 32,984 35,355 39,945 37,953 42,918 40,666 33,278 32,224 403,167 435,391

2015 38,460 36,750 38,502 31,108 34,254 35,816 38,517 39,380 40,394 40,117 35,333 32,503 408,630 441,133

YTY (%) ‐7.0 ‐5.4 ‐2.2 ‐10.6 ‐11.3 ‐5.4 ‐0.8 ‐2.4 7.5 1.4 ‐2.9 ‐2.0 ‐3.4 ‐3.3


Data source: CORAM

435,391

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐7.0‐5.4

‐2.2

‐10.6 ‐11.3

‐5.4

‐0.8‐2.4

7.5

1.4

‐2.9‐2.0

‐3.4 ‐3.3




Car Market Forecast : MIDDLE EAST AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.0 YTY (%) 18.1 YTD (%) 5.9 FY (%) 6.6 FY 2014 =


2013 102,410 111,222 130,393 90,085 112,978 116,136 116,348 96,280 117,133 112,369 123,208 173,282 1,228,562 1,401,844

2014 98,503 93,073 102,858 87,214 127,669 131,356 117,813 120,094 123,895 153,275 145,448 192,493 1,301,198 1,493,691

2015 123,579 125,425 151,751 136,575 163,685 160,643 145,531 144,017 152,678 160,856 156,171 201,957 1,620,911 1,822,868

YTY (%) ‐3.8 ‐16.3 ‐21.1 ‐3.2 13.0 13.1 1.3 24.7 5.8 36.4 18.1 11.1 5.9 6.6


Data source: CORAM

1,493,691

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐3.8

‐16.3‐21.1

‐3.2

13.0 13.1

1.3

24.7

5.8

36.4

18.1

11.15.9 6.6




Car Market Forecast : ASEAN AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.5 YTY (%) ‐7.2 YTD (%) ‐13.0 FY (%) ‐12.3 FY 2014 =


2013 260,877 261,186 300,280 251,818 252,166 249,925 265,413 221,302 241,138 230,277 229,019 231,371 2,763,401 2,994,772

2014 199,164 204,674 232,639 217,478 208,833 240,454 224,213 215,001 219,432 229,764 212,424 221,242 2,404,076 2,625,318

2015 195,380 201,737 235,442 209,734 210,537 219,953 222,458 207,850 210,566 218,580 209,537 213,140 2,341,774 2,554,914

YTY (%) ‐23.7 ‐21.6 ‐22.5 ‐13.6 ‐17.2 ‐3.8 ‐15.5 ‐2.8 ‐9.0 ‐0.2 ‐7.2 ‐4.4 ‐13.0 ‐12.3


Data source: CORAM

2,625,318

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐23.7‐21.6

‐22.5

‐13.6

‐17.2

‐3.8

‐15.5

‐2.8

‐9.0

‐0.2

‐7.2

‐4.4

‐13.0 ‐12.3




Car Market Forecast : INDIA AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.1 YTY (%) 2.2 YTD (%) 1.7 FY (%) 2.0 FY 2014 =


2013 230,087 214,093 243,844 199,496 193,338 187,462 176,949 180,897 207,198 229,057 196,095 180,713 2,258,516 2,439,229

2014 215,000 212,898 232,423 183,388 202,659 212,734 194,042 209,006 218,505 216,808 200,432 190,922 2,297,895 2,488,816

2015 214,551 213,389 226,921 192,730 206,175 213,197 200,164 210,598 216,207 216,038 206,854 197,989 2,316,824 2,514,813

YTY (%) ‐6.6 ‐0.6 ‐4.7 ‐8.1 4.8 13.5 9.7 15.5 5.5 ‐5.3 2.2 5.6 1.7 2.0


Data source: CORAM

2,488,816

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐6.6

‐0.6

‐4.7

‐8.1

4.8

13.5

9.7

15.5

5.5

‐5.3

2.2

5.6

1.7 2.0




Car Market Forecast : JAPAN AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) 3.6 YTY (%) ‐6.0 YTD (%) 3.5 FY (%) 2.4 FY 2014 =


2013 436,443 511,715 688,908 427,485 428,810 492,146 526,900 421,029 547,025 476,523 497,791 482,759 5,454,775 5,937,534

2014 540,766 598,449 788,499 422,970 426,452 501,303 519,490 387,308 543,242 450,578 467,781 435,736 5,646,838 6,082,574

2015 488,189 559,012 733,716 424,146 425,535 498,303 519,909 407,990 553,585 462,509 483,927 458,221 5,556,823 6,015,044

YTY (%) 23.9 16.9 14.5 ‐1.1 ‐0.5 1.9 ‐1.4 ‐8.0 ‐0.7 ‐5.4 ‐6.0 ‐9.7 3.5 2.4


Data source: CORAM

6,082,574

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

23.9

16.914.5

‐1.1 ‐0.5

1.9

‐1.4

‐8.0

‐0.7

‐5.4 ‐6.0‐9.7

3.5 2.4




Car Market Forecast : RUSSIA BALKAN AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) 7.6 YTY (%) ‐4.5 YTD (%) ‐14.7 FY (%) ‐14.0 FY 2014 =


2013 174,066 224,257 266,595 271,449 244,761 256,233 252,553 254,110 267,228 250,562 247,426 281,304 2,709,240 2,990,544

2014 164,586 221,680 254,273 234,291 207,173 205,619 187,585 178,417 202,864 217,256 236,241 262,323 2,309,985 2,572,308

2015 159,217 207,100 258,972 284,808 270,816 282,698 278,344 272,988 292,558 293,327 283,893 313,012 2,884,721 3,197,733

YTY (%) ‐5.4 ‐1.1 ‐4.6 ‐13.7 ‐15.4 ‐19.8 ‐25.7 ‐29.8 ‐24.1 ‐13.3 ‐4.5 ‐6.7 ‐14.7 ‐14.0


Data source: CORAM

2,572,308

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐5.4

‐1.1

‐4.6

‐13.7‐15.4

‐19.8

‐25.7

‐29.8

‐24.1

‐13.3

‐4.5‐6.7

‐14.7 ‐14.0




Car Market Forecast : LATIN AMERICA AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐0.4 YTY (%) ‐9.0 YTD (%) ‐12.6 FY (%) ‐12.5 FY 2014 =


2013 356,186 297,615 342,956 388,110 374,743 373,400 391,847 383,730 357,582 375,258 363,862 427,613 4,005,289 4,432,902

2014 344,827 292,401 281,154 318,090 310,535 300,657 333,636 323,542 333,429 332,384 331,070 379,216 3,501,725 3,880,941

2015 305,551 297,391 331,704 328,901 325,378 328,227 342,760 346,760 336,000 333,284 330,838 384,324 3,606,793 3,991,117

YTY (%) ‐3.2 ‐1.8 ‐18.0 ‐18.0 ‐17.1 ‐19.5 ‐14.9 ‐15.7 ‐6.8 ‐11.4 ‐9.0 ‐11.3 ‐12.6 ‐12.5


Data source: CORAM

3,880,941

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐3.2‐1.8

‐18.0 ‐18.0‐17.1

‐19.5

‐14.9 ‐15.7

‐6.8

‐11.4

‐9.0

‐11.3‐12.6 ‐12.5




Car Market Forecast : AUSTRALIA AREA PC November 2014

MTM (%) 1.6 YTY (%) ‐3.8 YTD (%) ‐0.9 FY (%) ‐0.8 FY 2014 =


2013 75,965 75,971 84,612 73,136 82,273 99,576 78,655 82,403 80,620 81,159 85,431 82,600 899,801 982,401

2014 75,787 76,090 85,851 70,528 81,351 99,207 79,340 77,284 83,603 80,871 82,158 82,034 892,070 974,104

2015 75,545 76,880 86,631 72,029 81,969 98,769 79,317 79,081 83,644 81,549 83,667 83,157 899,081 982,238

YTY (%) ‐0.2 0.2 1.5 ‐3.6 ‐1.1 ‐0.4 0.9 ‐6.2 3.7 ‐0.4 ‐3.8 ‐0.7 ‐0.9 ‐0.8


Data source: CORAM

974,104

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐0.2

0.2

1.5

‐3.6

‐1.1‐0.4

0.9

‐6.2

3.7

‐0.4

‐3.8

‐0.7 ‐0.9 ‐0.8Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD FY



Car Market Forecast : WORLD LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 2.2 YTY (%) 1.1 YTD (%) 3.3 FY (%) 3.1 FY 2014 =


2013 1,234,167 1,227,855 1,675,202 1,532,485 1,587,297 1,577,415 1,438,178 1,489,717 1,426,558 1,462,606 1,500,156 1,605,150 16,151,636 17,756,786

2014 1,286,313 1,338,145 1,795,450 1,595,996 1,643,837 1,502,569 1,509,591 1,513,725 1,503,556 1,485,161 1,516,953 1,609,763 16,691,296 18,301,059

2015 1,364,731 1,420,998 1,811,768 1,639,098 1,697,040 1,611,743 1,549,521 1,565,115 1,579,008 1,568,382 1,587,004 1,655,126 17,394,409 19,049,535

YTY (%) 4.2 9.0 7.2 4.1 3.6 ‐4.7 5.0 1.6 5.4 1.5 1.1 0.3 3.3 3.1


Data source: CORAM

18,301,059

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

4.2

9.0

7.2

4.1 3.6

‐4.7

5.0

1.6

5.4

1.5 1.10.3

3.3 3.1




Car Market Forecast : CHINA AREA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 11.1 YTY (%) ‐9.5 YTD (%) ‐7.3 FY (%) ‐7.6 FY 2014 =


2013 309,000 242,700 449,600 400,300 364,600 350,631 278,694 295,667 342,300 326,900 347,560 357,200 3,707,952 4,065,152

2014 309,500 284,200 459,000 395,200 320,800 281,700 260,200 247,400 287,600 278,300 314,700 318,375 3,438,600 3,756,975

2015 277,204 270,077 424,509 369,980 318,892 298,683 244,446 262,874 298,387 288,039 307,655 318,375 3,360,744 3,679,119

YTY (%) 0.2 17.1 2.1 ‐1.3 ‐12.0 ‐19.7 ‐6.6 ‐16.3 ‐16.0 ‐14.9 ‐9.5 ‐10.9 ‐7.3 ‐7.6


Data source: CORAM

3,756,975

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

0.2

17.1

2.1

‐1.3

‐12.0

‐19.7

‐6.6

‐16.3 ‐16.0 ‐14.9

‐9.5 ‐10.9‐7.3 ‐7.6




Car Market Forecast : EUROPE AREA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐10.2 YTY (%) 4.7 YTD (%) 11.8 FY (%) 11.3 FY 2014 =


2013 107,740 94,430 144,744 123,255 116,002 128,722 116,738 80,626 134,524 130,966 124,869 126,744 1,302,616 1,429,360

2014 135,903 106,162 161,157 129,057 130,094 144,434 130,980 88,502 155,424 144,068 130,744 134,261 1,456,525 1,590,786

2015 131,745 113,201 169,591 135,005 135,627 148,456 131,614 93,525 152,173 142,629 135,702 135,130 1,489,267 1,624,398

YTY (%) 26.1 12.4 11.3 4.7 12.1 12.2 12.2 9.8 15.5 10.0 4.7 5.9 11.8 11.3


Data source: CORAM

1,590,786

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

26.1

12.4 11.3

4.7

12.1 12.2 12.29.8

15.5

10.0

4.75.9

11.8 11.3




Car Market Forecast : NORTH AMERICA AREA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 2.3 YTY (%) 8.9 YTD (%) 9.3 FY (%) 9.1 FY 2014 =


2013 576,061 650,280 800,349 740,585 833,585 808,552 760,961 855,399 666,104 721,763 736,465 811,637 8,150,104 8,961,741

2014 592,347 691,021 885,224 828,965 942,708 811,842 860,735 931,521 777,189 785,609 801,961 866,500 8,909,122 9,775,622

2015 715,336 781,189 916,632 878,964 975,283 883,688 902,537 950,790 844,831 859,428 863,675 901,252 9,572,353 10,473,604

YTY (%) 2.8 6.3 10.6 11.9 13.1 0.4 13.1 8.9 16.7 8.8 8.9 6.8 9.3 9.1


Data source: CORAM

9,775,622

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

2.8

6.3

10.611.9

13.1

0.4

13.1

8.9

16.7

8.8 8.9

6.8

9.3 9.1




Car Market Forecast : SOUTH AFRICA AREA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐5.3 YTY (%) 9.9 YTD (%) 3.9 FY (%) 4.5 FY 2014 =


2013 14,067 14,752 15,289 14,458 14,618 13,935 15,071 14,376 12,358 14,137 13,719 11,420 156,780 168,200

2014 13,145 14,879 15,848 12,796 13,866 14,405 15,081 16,716 15,179 15,827 15,076 12,897 162,818 175,715

2015 14,397 16,024 17,118 14,291 15,169 15,364 16,084 16,751 15,499 16,358 16,119 13,948 173,174 187,123

YTY (%) ‐6.6 0.9 3.7 ‐11.5 ‐5.1 3.4 0.1 16.3 22.8 12.0 9.9 12.9 3.9 4.5


Data source: CORAM

175,715

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐6.6

0.93.7

‐11.5

‐5.1

3.40.1

16.3

22.8

12.09.9

12.9

3.9 4.5




Car Market Forecast : MIDDLE EAST AREA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 35.7 YTY (%) 11.3 YTD (%) ‐18.3 FY (%) ‐16.5 FY 2014 =


2013 12,522 15,373 22,402 21,374 24,231 21,259 20,234 17,168 19,531 14,613 20,020 35,946 208,727 244,673

2014 11,837 11,824 14,781 15,298 13,378 14,509 14,258 16,660 18,707 17,057 22,277 33,797 170,586 204,383

2015 11,367 14,134 20,311 20,065 21,614 20,248 18,275 19,091 22,111 18,457 20,224 33,880 205,899 239,779

YTY (%) ‐5.5 ‐23.1 ‐34.0 ‐28.4 ‐44.8 ‐31.8 ‐29.5 ‐3.0 ‐4.2 16.7 11.3 ‐6.0 ‐18.3 ‐16.5


Data source: CORAM

204,383

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐5.5

‐23.1

‐34.0‐28.4

‐44.8

‐31.8 ‐29.5

‐3.0 ‐4.2

16.711.3

‐6.0

‐18.3 ‐16.5




Car Market Forecast : ASEAN AREA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐26.3 YTY (%) ‐34.4 YTD (%) ‐8.1 FY (%) ‐9.3 FY 2014 =


2013 36,390 35,166 33,809 35,697 33,075 36,471 37,344 28,949 39,356 39,639 37,546 36,088 393,442 429,530

2014 33,507 36,070 38,402 35,162 31,137 33,041 28,877 31,794 34,051 35,071 24,645 28,012 361,757 389,768

2015 26,837 27,804 29,573 29,077 28,001 30,048 30,333 27,323 29,980 32,030 29,102 29,604 320,107 349,711

YTY (%) ‐7.9 2.6 13.6 ‐1.5 ‐5.9 ‐9.4 ‐22.7 9.8 ‐13.5 ‐11.5 ‐34.4 ‐22.4 ‐8.1 ‐9.3


Data source: CORAM

389,768

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐7.9

2.6

13.6

‐1.5‐5.9

‐9.4

‐22.7

9.8

‐13.5 ‐11.5

‐34.4

‐22.4

‐8.1 ‐9.3




Car Market Forecast : JAPAN AREA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 11.6 YTY (%) ‐5.5 YTD (%) 3.7 FY (%) 3.1 FY 2014 =


2013 43,522 52,815 73,850 47,866 49,546 59,647 57,458 44,456 59,458 55,040 65,148 49,897 608,806 658,703

2014 52,354 60,491 88,334 44,940 48,862 58,872 55,587 39,728 65,590 55,143 61,551 47,971 631,452 679,423

2015 52,936 58,729 84,346 46,380 50,206 59,116 56,957 42,337 64,171 55,955 63,021 49,486 634,154 683,640

YTY (%) 20.3 14.5 19.6 ‐6.1 ‐1.4 ‐1.3 ‐3.3 ‐10.6 10.3 0.2 ‐5.5 ‐3.9 3.7 3.1


Data source: CORAM

679,423

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

20.3

14.5

19.6

‐6.1

‐1.4 ‐1.3‐3.3

‐10.6

10.3

0.2

‐5.5‐3.9

3.7 3.1




Car Market Forecast : LATIN AMERICA AREA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐5.0 YTY (%) ‐5.5 YTD (%) ‐3.7 FY (%) ‐3.8 FY 2014 =


2013 114,993 98,891 111,252 127,156 126,887 126,663 128,913 130,663 128,769 135,706 131,391 151,448 1,361,284 1,512,732

2014 119,710 112,481 109,258 115,148 119,228 111,553 122,318 119,709 126,019 130,972 124,174 144,659 1,310,570 1,455,229

2015 117,252 118,422 125,693 125,052 128,437 124,888 128,005 130,769 128,252 132,363 129,298 149,963 1,388,430 1,538,393

YTY (%) 4.1 13.7 ‐1.8 ‐9.4 ‐6.0 ‐11.9 ‐5.1 ‐8.4 ‐2.1 ‐3.5 ‐5.5 ‐4.5 ‐3.7 ‐3.8


Data source: CORAM

1,455,229

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

4.1

13.7

‐1.8

‐9.4

‐6.0

‐11.9

‐5.1

‐8.4

‐2.1‐3.5

‐5.5 ‐4.5 ‐3.7 ‐3.8




Car Market Forecast : AUSTRALIA AREA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐5.1 YTY (%) ‐2.9 YTD (%) ‐0.9 FY (%) ‐0.9 FY 2014 =


2013 18,758 22,194 22,293 20,124 23,439 29,905 20,981 20,363 22,113 22,140 21,881 22,932 244,191 267,123

2014 17,026 19,867 22,654 18,911 23,275 31,621 20,840 21,062 23,215 22,388 21,250 22,493 242,109 264,602

2015 17,608 20,980 23,369 19,728 23,380 30,800 20,794 21,238 23,227 22,757 21,968 23,021 245,851 268,872

YTY (%) ‐9.2 ‐10.5 1.6 ‐6.0 ‐0.7 5.7 ‐0.7 3.4 5.0 1.1 ‐2.9 ‐1.9 ‐0.9 ‐0.9


Data source: CORAM

264,602

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐9.2‐10.5

1.6

‐6.0

‐0.7

5.7

‐0.7

3.45.0

1.1

‐2.9‐1.9

‐0.9 ‐0.9Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD FY



Car Market Forecast : ARGENTINA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐3.1 YTY (%) ‐43.5 YTD (%) ‐36.7 FY (%) ‐36.3 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is still in strong recession

Main Event : January : devaluation of pesos


2013 42,645 49,837 55,072 61,360 59,753 62,900 59,997 62,488 59,510 56,479 52,191 62,147 622,232 684,379

2014 34,350 38,389 33,582 36,579 35,929 37,213 38,274 36,351 42,537 31,244 29,509 42,176 393,957 436,133

2015 21,817 29,396 29,305 32,977 31,263 31,794 31,321 30,641 34,373 27,704 27,189 39,856 327,781 367,637

YTY (%) ‐19.5 ‐23.0 ‐39.0 ‐40.4 ‐39.9 ‐40.8 ‐36.2 ‐41.8 ‐28.5 ‐44.7 ‐43.5 ‐32.1 ‐36.7 ‐36.3


Data source: ADEFA

436,133

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1996

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐19.5‐23.0

‐39.0 ‐40.4 ‐39.9 ‐40.8

‐36.2

‐41.8

‐28.5

‐44.7 ‐43.5

‐32.1

‐36.7 ‐36.3




Car Market Forecast : ARGENTINA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐20.4 YTY (%) ‐51.1 YTD (%) ‐33.2 FY (%) ‐33.2 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is still in strong recession

Main Event : January : devaluation of pesos


2013 13,509 15,605 19,197 21,185 21,827 21,906 18,087 22,581 21,851 20,971 19,735 23,295 216,454 239,749

2014 10,357 14,700 14,232 12,979 13,037 14,059 13,718 12,683 15,161 13,926 9,652 15,679 144,504 160,183

2015 8,025 12,008 12,878 12,303 12,439 13,488 11,798 12,875 13,703 12,720 11,740 16,501 133,977 150,478

YTY (%) ‐23.3 ‐5.8 ‐25.9 ‐38.7 ‐40.3 ‐35.8 ‐24.2 ‐43.8 ‐30.6 ‐33.6 ‐51.1 ‐32.7 ‐33.2 ‐33.2


Data source: ADEFA

160,183

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1996

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐23.3

‐5.8

‐25.9

‐38.7 ‐40.3‐35.8

‐24.2

‐43.8

‐30.6‐33.6

‐51.1

‐32.7 ‐33.2 ‐33.2




Car Market Forecast : AUSTRALIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) 2.9 YTY (%) ‐5.0 YTD (%) ‐1.9 FY (%) ‐1.9 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is stable


2013 68,580 70,172 77,812 67,228 75,926 92,034 71,886 75,575 73,348 73,197 77,978 76,229 823,736 899,965

2014 67,494 69,518 77,857 64,377 74,549 90,690 72,269 70,201 75,221 71,961 74,095 74,888 808,232 883,120

2015 66,837 69,567 78,032 64,705 74,169 89,842 71,362 71,005 74,846 72,489 75,441 75,777 808,295 884,072

YTY (%) ‐1.6 ‐0.9 0.1 ‐4.2 ‐1.8 ‐1.5 0.5 ‐7.1 2.6 ‐1.7 ‐5.0 ‐1.8 ‐1.9 ‐1.9


Data source: ABS

883,120

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐1.6‐0.9

0.1

‐4.2

‐1.8 ‐1.5

0.5

‐7.1

2.6

‐1.7

‐5.0

‐1.8 ‐1.9 ‐1.9




Car Market Forecast : AUSTRALIA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐5.9 YTY (%) ‐4.3 YTD (%) ‐3.5 FY (%) ‐3.6 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is stable


2013 16,850 20,046 19,588 17,889 20,862 26,724 18,349 17,761 19,314 19,406 18,946 20,527 215,735 236,262

2014 14,791 17,300 19,410 16,333 20,013 27,619 17,598 17,956 19,757 19,275 18,137 19,671 208,189 227,860

2015 14,813 17,923 19,774 16,798 19,924 26,735 17,421 17,934 19,661 19,392 18,498 19,898 208,873 228,771

YTY (%) ‐12.2 ‐13.7 ‐0.9 ‐8.7 ‐4.1 3.3 ‐4.1 1.1 2.3 ‐0.7 ‐4.3 ‐4.2 ‐3.5 ‐3.6


Data source: ABS

227,860

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐12.2‐13.7

‐0.9

‐8.7

‐4.1

3.3

‐4.1

1.12.3

‐0.7

‐4.3 ‐4.2 ‐3.5 ‐3.6




Car Market Forecast : AUSTRIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐19.9 YTY (%) ‐7.4 YTD (%) ‐4.1 FY (%) ‐4.3 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 27,761 21,196 31,067 30,807 29,094 31,279 28,543 23,063 25,301 26,743 23,350 20,831 298,204 319,035

2014 23,990 27,589 29,702 29,240 26,986 29,100 24,772 21,121 24,863 26,945 21,619 19,387 285,927 305,314

2015 23,815 23,895 30,668 30,224 28,507 29,877 26,353 22,539 25,425 26,411 23,542 19,761 291,255 311,015

YTY (%) ‐13.6 30.2 ‐4.4 ‐5.1 ‐7.2 ‐7.0 ‐13.2 ‐8.4 ‐1.7 0.8 ‐7.4 ‐6.9 ‐4.1 ‐4.3


Data source: ACEA

305,314

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐13.6

30.2

‐4.4 ‐5.1‐7.2 ‐7.0

‐13.2‐8.4

‐1.7

0.8

‐7.4 ‐6.9‐4.1 ‐4.3




Car Market Forecast : AUSTRIA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐16.7 YTY (%) ‐0.7 YTD (%) 3.7 FY (%) 3.5 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 2,182 1,985 2,812 2,991 2,638 2,711 2,896 2,405 2,431 2,919 2,379 2,369 28,349 30,718

2014 2,666 2,117 2,940 2,994 2,670 2,943 2,778 2,466 2,610 2,850 2,363 2,401 29,397 31,798

2015 2,397 2,082 2,925 2,944 2,721 2,806 2,752 2,415 2,487 2,825 2,563 2,443 28,917 31,359

YTY (%) 22.2 6.6 4.6 0.1 1.2 8.6 ‐4.1 2.5 7.4 ‐2.4 ‐0.7 1.3 3.7 3.5


Data source: ACEA

31,798

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

22.2

6.64.6

0.1 1.2

8.6

‐4.1

2.5

7.4

‐2.4‐0.7

1.33.7 3.5




Car Market Forecast : BELGIUM PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐21.2 YTY (%) ‐7.1 YTD (%) ‐1.2 FY (%) ‐0.8 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 50,684 45,400 53,076 53,036 44,519 43,158 34,879 29,829 34,890 39,490 32,023 25,081 460,984 486,065

2014 49,584 46,140 52,808 53,319 42,955 42,397 35,275 28,613 36,383 38,115 29,739 27,022 455,328 482,350

2015 45,346 41,550 52,430 48,321 40,421 41,515 32,217 27,740 32,378 36,661 30,311 24,549 428,890 453,439

YTY (%) ‐2.2 1.6 ‐0.5 0.5 ‐3.5 ‐1.8 1.1 ‐4.1 4.3 ‐3.5 ‐7.1 7.7 ‐1.2 ‐0.8


Data source: ACEA

482,350

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐2.2

1.6

‐0.5

0.5

‐3.5

‐1.8

1.1

‐4.1

4.3

‐3.5

‐7.1

7.7




Car Market Forecast : BELGIUM LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐14.7 YTY (%) 3.8 YTD (%) ‐3.2 FY (%) ‐3.3 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 5,638 4,655 5,455 6,294 5,850 5,245 4,066 3,075 3,616 4,632 3,725 3,119 52,251 55,370

2014 6,596 4,685 5,246 5,238 4,851 4,590 3,815 3,256 3,873 4,548 3,865 2,989 50,563 53,552

2015 5,853 4,552 5,159 5,482 5,136 4,771 3,914 3,250 3,829 4,568 3,866 3,146 50,380 53,526

YTY (%) 17.0 0.6 ‐3.8 ‐16.8 ‐17.1 ‐12.5 ‐6.2 5.9 7.1 ‐1.8 3.8 ‐4.2 ‐3.2 ‐3.3


Data source: ACEA

53,552

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

17.0

0.6

‐3.8

‐16.8 ‐17.1

‐12.5

‐6.2

5.9 7.1

‐1.8

3.8

‐4.2 ‐3.2 ‐3.3Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD FY



Car Market Forecast : BULGARIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐5.2 YTY (%) ‐4.5 YTD (%) 4.4 FY (%) 3.0 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 1,345 1,147 1,262 1,632 1,854 1,944 1,667 1,702 1,737 1,687 1,671 2,251 17,648 19,899

2014 1,363 1,520 1,736 1,859 1,802 2,052 1,562 1,689 1,567 1,682 1,595 2,062 18,427 20,489

2015 1,211 1,294 1,489 1,676 1,693 1,939 1,516 1,638 1,539 1,615 1,549 2,013 17,158 19,171

YTY (%) 1.3 32.5 37.6 13.9 ‐2.8 5.6 ‐6.3 ‐0.8 ‐9.8 ‐0.3 ‐4.5 ‐8.4 4.4 3.0


Data source: CORAM,ACEA

20,489

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

1.3

32.537.6

13.9

‐2.8

5.6

‐6.3

‐0.8

‐9.8

‐0.3‐4.5

‐8.4

4.4 3.0




Car Market Forecast : BULGARIA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐5.5 YTY (%) ‐0.6 YTD (%) 22.2 FY (%) 18.4 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 195 231 275 246 270 349 205 238 289 291 346 421 2,935 3,356

2014 217 252 449 352 228 412 294 303 376 360 344 388 3,587 3,975

2015 251 305 395 358 333 421 344 350 361 387 363 407 3,867 4,274

YTY (%) 11.3 9.1 63.3 43.1 ‐15.6 18.1 43.4 27.3 30.1 23.7 ‐0.6 ‐7.9 22.2 18.4



3,975

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

11.3 9.1

63.3

43.1

‐15.6

18.1

43.4

27.3 30.123.7

‐0.6‐7.9

22.218.4




Car Market Forecast : BRAZIL PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐2.6 YTY (%) ‐5.7 YTD (%) ‐10.9 FY (%) ‐10.9 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is slowly recovering after the recession of the first half of the year


2013 231,343 172,080 209,797 246,379 232,974 233,277 250,685 242,479 222,155 239,590 223,748 259,211 2,504,507 2,763,718

2014 228,666 183,235 171,359 211,225 207,688 188,157 208,642 193,767 210,285 217,176 211,006 232,170 2,231,206 2,463,376

2015 195,482 184,959 215,531 212,111 209,659 212,349 220,804 222,991 211,169 217,121 210,014 235,658 2,312,191 2,547,849

YTY (%) ‐1.2 6.5 ‐18.3 ‐14.3 ‐10.9 ‐19.3 ‐16.8 ‐20.1 ‐5.3 ‐9.4 ‐5.7 ‐10.4 ‐10.9 ‐10.9


Data source: ANFAVEA

2,463,376

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐1.2

6.5

‐18.3

‐14.3

‐10.9

‐19.3‐16.8

‐20.1

‐5.3

‐9.4

‐5.7

‐10.4 ‐10.9 ‐10.9




Car Market Forecast : BRAZIL LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.4 YTY (%) 6.7 YTD (%) 1.2 FY (%) 1.2 FY 2014 =

Comment : The trend is still good for the lcv market


2013 65,845 50,651 58,798 70,609 67,969 69,810 73,610 70,529 72,264 74,283 64,798 77,019 739,166 816,185

2014 71,436 62,904 57,756 68,892 70,720 62,857 71,548 65,723 72,596 74,628 69,146 78,165 748,206 826,371

2015 68,537 65,658 72,210 73,776 74,376 71,905 75,885 74,665 73,752 76,190 71,863 81,119 798,817 879,936

YTY (%) 8.5 24.2 ‐1.8 ‐2.4 4.0 ‐10.0 ‐2.8 ‐6.8 0.5 0.5 6.7 1.5 1.2 1.2


Data source: ANFAVEA

826,371

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

8.5

24.2

‐1.8 ‐2.4

4.0

‐10.0

‐2.8‐6.8

0.5 0.5

6.7

1.5 1.2 1.2




Car Market Forecast : CANADA CARS November 2014

MTM (%) ‐17.5 YTY (%) ‐3.8 YTD (%) ‐1.1 FY (%) ‐0.6 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is in line with forecast and stable


2013 39,011 44,331 70,204 77,096 86,045 74,987 70,674 70,272 66,595 63,218 56,011 43,131 718,444 761,575

2014 36,177 40,580 65,831 76,385 82,732 77,552 74,460 70,939 67,130 64,940 53,868 46,393 710,594 756,987

2015 39,529 43,804 66,676 74,984 82,571 75,013 71,862 69,722 66,149 64,023 55,348 46,910 709,681 756,591

YTY (%) ‐7.3 ‐8.5 ‐6.2 ‐0.9 ‐3.9 3.4 5.4 0.9 0.8 2.7 ‐3.8 7.6 ‐1.1 ‐0.6


Data source: DESROSIERS

756,987

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐7.3‐8.5

‐6.2

‐0.9

‐3.9

3.4

5.4

0.9 0.8

2.7

‐3.8

7.6




Car Market Forecast : CANADA LT November 2014

MTM (%) ‐6.1 YTY (%) 6.3 YTD (%) 6.3 FY (%) 6.6 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is still increasing, far above pre crisis level


2013 58,861 61,480 89,749 98,085 102,985 99,452 91,161 91,099 85,704 84,963 79,765 72,237 943,304 1,015,541

2014 61,447 66,921 94,824 105,065 115,008 81,042 102,535 100,621 100,789 90,009 84,826 79,053 1,003,087 1,082,140

2015 71,456 75,442 100,211 108,693 115,977 95,034 105,147 104,008 102,497 95,964 91,379 85,754 1,065,808 1,151,562

YTY (%) 4.4 8.9 5.7 7.1 11.7 ‐18.5 12.5 10.5 17.6 5.9 6.3 9.4 6.3 6.6


Data source: DESROSIERS

1,082,140

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

4.4

8.95.7 7.1

11.7

‐18.5

12.510.5

17.6

5.9 6.39.4

6.3 6.6




Car Market Forecast : SWITZERLAND PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐9.8 YTY (%) ‐4.9 YTD (%) ‐3.1 FY (%) ‐3.0 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 21,022 22,175 28,554 28,397 27,252 28,905 26,333 20,996 22,518 26,626 24,882 29,496 277,660 307,156

2014 20,214 21,931 26,250 27,804 25,787 27,919 27,570 19,783 21,878 26,277 23,672 28,825 269,085 297,910

2015 20,636 20,731 28,100 27,228 25,726 29,678 25,707 20,054 22,798 25,435 24,376 29,003 270,470 299,473

YTY (%) ‐3.8 ‐1.1 ‐8.1 ‐2.1 ‐5.4 ‐3.4 4.7 ‐5.8 ‐2.8 ‐1.3 ‐4.9 ‐2.3 ‐3.1 ‐3.0


Data source: ACEA

297,910

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐3.8

‐1.1

‐8.1

‐2.1

‐5.4

‐3.4

4.7

‐5.8

‐2.8‐1.3

‐4.9

‐2.3‐3.1 ‐3.0




Car Market Forecast : SWITZERLAND LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 3.4 YTY (%) ‐4.3 YTD (%) ‐6.9 FY (%) ‐6.9 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 2,329 2,471 3,136 3,178 2,943 2,803 2,623 2,068 2,262 2,476 2,550 2,271 28,839 31,110

2014 2,639 2,250 2,536 2,716 2,577 2,609 2,646 1,981 2,093 2,357 2,441 2,117 26,845 28,962

2015 2,332 2,164 2,684 2,785 2,657 2,657 2,554 1,998 2,156 2,417 2,496 2,162 26,899 29,061

YTY (%) 13.3 ‐8.9 ‐19.1 ‐14.5 ‐12.4 ‐6.9 0.9 ‐4.2 ‐7.5 ‐4.8 ‐4.3 ‐6.8 ‐6.9 ‐6.9


Data source: ACEA

28,962

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

13.3

‐8.9

‐19.1

‐14.5‐12.4

‐6.9

0.9

‐4.2‐7.5

‐4.8 ‐4.3‐6.8 ‐6.9 ‐6.9




Car Market Forecast : CHILE PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐0.9 YTY (%) ‐21.8 YTD (%) ‐10.5 FY (%) ‐11.3 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market confirms its recession


2013 25,595 21,524 21,493 24,333 24,098 21,567 24,525 21,684 25,185 22,953 23,437 30,194 256,394 286,588

2014 25,906 18,961 20,630 19,921 19,324 19,502 21,146 24,813 22,500 18,530 18,319 24,583 229,552 254,135

2015 22,796 18,843 21,191 21,861 21,469 19,248 22,322 22,514 24,939 18,804 19,173 24,806 233,159 257,966

YTY (%) 1.2 ‐11.9 ‐4.0 ‐18.1 ‐19.8 ‐9.6 ‐13.8 14.4 ‐10.7 ‐19.3 ‐21.8 ‐18.6 ‐10.5 ‐11.3


Data source: CORAM,ANAC

254,135

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

1.2

‐11.9

‐4.0

‐18.1 ‐19.8

‐9.6‐13.8

14.4

‐10.7

‐19.3‐21.8

‐18.6

‐10.5 ‐11.3




Car Market Forecast : CHILE LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐11.4 YTY (%) ‐45.4 YTD (%) ‐11.9 FY (%) ‐12.4 FY 2014 =

Comment : The markets drops heavily in November but the reference was high


2013 7,973 6,616 7,084 7,873 7,491 6,890 7,211 6,300 7,035 8,427 10,921 7,831 83,821 91,652

2014 8,318 6,755 7,171 6,777 5,965 6,295 6,415 6,033 7,253 6,929 5,967 6,434 73,878 80,312

2015 6,580 6,273 6,406 6,287 6,149 6,322 6,384 6,375 6,681 6,628 6,161 6,577 70,246 76,823

YTY (%) 4.3 2.1 1.2 ‐13.9 ‐20.4 ‐8.6 ‐11.0 ‐4.2 3.1 ‐17.8 ‐45.4 ‐17.8 ‐11.9 ‐12.4


Data source: CORAM,ANAC

80,312

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

4.32.1 1.2

‐13.9

‐20.4

‐8.6‐11.0

‐4.2

3.1

‐17.8

‐45.4

‐17.8

‐11.9 ‐12.4




Car Market Forecast : CHINA PC November 2014

MTM (%) 4.1 YTY (%) 4.7 YTD (%) 12.1 FY (%) 11.4 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is slowing month after month


2013 1,725,500 1,111,900 1,585,500 1,441,400 1,396,900 1,403,453 1,237,569 1,353,235 1,593,500 1,605,700 1,696,340 1,770,000 16,150,997 17,920,997

2014 1,846,900 1,312,200 2,169,100 1,609,000 1,590,400 1,564,100 1,357,900 1,468,200 1,696,000 1,708,900 1,775,300 1,859,561 18,098,000 19,957,561

2015 2,028,630 1,447,076 2,066,128 1,764,078 1,732,983 1,726,456 1,545,542 1,660,026 1,895,211 1,907,893 1,989,724 2,067,158 19,763,748 21,830,906

YTY (%) 7.0 18.0 36.8 11.6 13.9 11.4 9.7 8.5 6.4 6.4 4.7 5.1 12.1 11.4


Data source: CORAM,CAAM

19,957,561

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

7.0

18.0

36.8

11.613.9

11.49.7 8.5

6.4 6.44.7 5.1

12.1 11.4




Car Market Forecast : CHINA CV November 2014

MTM (%) 11.1 YTY (%) ‐9.5 YTD (%) ‐7.3 FY (%) ‐7.6 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is in recession for 8 months


2013 309,000 242,700 449,600 400,300 364,600 350,631 278,694 295,667 342,300 326,900 347,560 357,200 3,707,952 4,065,152

2014 309,500 284,200 459,000 395,200 320,800 281,700 260,200 247,400 287,600 278,300 314,700 318,375 3,438,600 3,756,975

2015 277,204 270,077 424,509 369,980 318,892 298,683 244,446 262,874 298,387 288,039 307,655 318,375 3,360,744 3,679,119

YTY (%) 0.2 17.1 2.1 ‐1.3 ‐12.0 ‐19.7 ‐6.6 ‐16.3 ‐16.0 ‐14.9 ‐9.5 ‐10.9 ‐7.3 ‐7.6


Data source: CORAM,CAAM

3,756,975

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

0.2

17.1

2.1

‐1.3

‐12.0

‐19.7

‐6.6

‐16.3 ‐16.0 ‐14.9

‐9.5 ‐10.9‐7.3 ‐7.6




Car Market Forecast : CZECH REPUBLIC PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐9.3 YTY (%) 11.3 YTD (%) 16.9 FY (%) 16.4 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 12,071 10,562 13,820 15,061 14,822 14,482 14,533 11,595 13,208 15,346 14,697 14,539 150,197 164,736

2014 13,638 12,779 16,576 17,498 15,396 18,171 17,700 13,937 15,775 17,791 16,365 16,193 175,626 191,819

2015 13,642 14,064 17,387 17,932 17,586 18,458 15,812 14,890 15,109 16,858 16,570 16,193 178,308 194,502

YTY (%) 13.0 21.0 19.9 16.2 3.9 25.5 21.8 20.2 19.4 15.9 11.3 11.4 16.9 16.4



191,819

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

13.0

21.0 19.9

16.2

3.9

25.5

21.820.2 19.4

15.9

11.3 11.4

16.9 16.4




Car Market Forecast : CZECH REPUBLIC LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐3.8 YTY (%) 14.1 YTD (%) 19.2 FY (%) 19.1 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 696 598 810 825 1,298 888 945 1,050 1,120 1,202 1,054 1,174 10,486 11,660

2014 1,789 783 1,099 1,142 968 1,151 1,101 980 1,037 1,249 1,203 1,386 12,502 13,888

2015 955 751 1,027 1,030 1,117 1,233 968 1,044 996 1,178 1,264 1,386 11,563 12,950

YTY (%) 157.0 30.9 35.7 38.4 ‐25.4 29.6 16.5 ‐6.7 ‐7.4 3.9 14.1 18.1 19.2 19.1



13,888

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

157.0

30.9 35.7 38.4

‐25.4

29.616.5

‐6.7 ‐7.4

3.914.1 18.1 19.2 19.1




Car Market Forecast : GERMANY PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐9.5 YTY (%) ‐1.8 YTD (%) 2.6 FY (%) 2.4 FY 2014 =

Comment : Confirmation of the positive trend of September with a strong increase above expectation


2013 192,090 200,683 281,184 284,444 261,316 282,913 253,146 214,044 247,199 265,441 254,651 215,320 2,737,111 2,952,431

2014 205,996 209,349 296,408 274,097 274,804 277,614 270,249 213,092 260,062 275,320 250,082 217,485 2,807,073 3,024,558

2015 196,195 209,311 308,585 282,090 285,023 298,896 264,757 223,403 262,585 266,115 252,922 217,899 2,849,882 3,067,781

YTY (%) 7.2 4.3 5.4 ‐3.6 5.2 ‐1.9 6.8 ‐0.4 5.2 3.7 ‐1.8 1.0 2.6 2.4


Data source: KBA

3,024,558

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

7.2

4.35.4

‐3.6

5.2

‐1.9

6.8

‐0.4

5.2

3.7

‐1.8

1.0

2.6 2.4




Car Market Forecast : GERMANY LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.9 YTY (%) ‐8.6 YTD (%) 9.5 FY (%) 9.3 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 14,271 12,751 17,275 18,620 16,849 19,801 19,609 15,142 17,289 20,068 22,624 18,478 194,299 212,777

2014 20,516 14,481 18,564 18,047 19,758 20,976 20,861 17,173 19,362 22,260 20,671 19,827 212,669 232,496

2015 18,004 15,404 20,031 19,170 19,520 20,818 20,171 17,508 19,184 21,168 21,916 20,026 212,894 232,920

YTY (%) 43.8 13.6 7.5 ‐3.1 17.3 5.9 6.4 13.4 12.0 10.9 ‐8.6 7.3 9.5 9.3


Data source: KBA

232,496

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

43.8

13.6

7.5

‐3.1

17.3

5.9 6.4

13.4 12.0 10.9

‐8.6

7.3 9.5 9.3




Car Market Forecast : DANEMARK PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.2 YTY (%) ‐4.7 YTD (%) 3.4 FY (%) 3.3 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 14,748 12,245 14,959 15,832 16,630 17,558 14,320 14,300 14,540 16,871 15,896 14,248 167,899 182,147

2014 16,269 14,759 16,814 16,511 16,871 17,572 14,267 14,604 14,432 16,370 15,155 14,445 173,624 188,069

2015 15,365 14,121 16,564 16,084 17,440 17,991 15,429 14,966 15,191 16,526 16,295 15,151 175,971 191,122

YTY (%) 10.3 20.5 12.4 4.3 1.4 0.1 ‐0.4 2.1 ‐0.7 ‐3.0 ‐4.7 1.4 3.4 3.3


Data source: ACEA

188,069

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

10.3

20.5

12.4

4.31.4

0.1

‐0.4

2.1

‐0.7‐3.0

‐4.7

1.43.4 3.3




Car Market Forecast : DANEMARK LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 6.5 YTY (%) 26.6 YTD (%) 18.4 FY (%) 18.5 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 1,753 1,721 1,915 2,113 1,989 2,142 1,678 2,076 2,037 2,025 2,215 2,546 21,664 24,210

2014 2,297 1,924 2,442 2,155 2,421 2,456 1,821 2,276 2,382 2,672 2,804 3,046 25,650 28,696

2015 2,439 2,310 2,778 2,628 2,825 2,772 2,210 2,615 2,613 2,675 2,837 3,133 28,703 31,835

YTY (%) 31.0 11.8 27.5 2.0 21.7 14.7 8.5 9.6 16.9 32.0 26.6 19.6 18.4 18.5


Data source: ACEA

28,696

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

31.0

11.8

27.5

2.0

21.7

14.7

8.5 9.6

16.9

32.0

26.6

19.6 18.4 18.5




Car Market Forecast : SPAIN PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐18.2 YTY (%) 17.4 YTD (%) 18.1 FY (%) 17.9 FY 2014 =

Comment : October is boosted by the official end of the PIVE, but far below pre‐crisis level


2013 49,675 58,372 72,678 62,317 70,546 72,771 75,027 39,874 45,175 60,304 55,451 60,513 662,190 722,703

2014 53,436 68,763 79,929 80,174 82,483 90,158 83,365 45,355 57,010 76,073 65,122 70,196 781,868 852,064

2015 67,677 76,292 86,104 86,526 87,678 94,141 89,082 61,179 70,131 84,216 76,359 80,309 879,385 959,694

YTY (%) 7.6 17.8 10.0 28.7 16.9 23.9 11.1 13.7 26.2 26.1 17.4 16.0 18.1 17.9


Data source: ANFAC

852,064

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

7.6

17.8

10.0

28.7

16.9

23.9

11.113.7

26.2 26.1

17.416.0

18.1 17.9




Car Market Forecast : SPAIN LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐35.2 YTY (%) 14.6 YTD (%) 35.1 FY (%) 32.6 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 4,612 5,626 7,449 6,981 7,273 8,708 8,766 5,207 6,451 8,275 7,586 8,466 76,934 85,400

2014 8,616 8,528 9,297 11,000 10,577 10,283 11,113 6,212 7,993 11,604 8,693 9,361 103,916 113,277

2015 10,272 9,850 10,632 11,883 11,607 11,376 12,041 8,257 9,651 12,459 10,221 10,751 118,249 129,000

YTY (%) 86.8 51.6 24.8 57.6 45.4 18.1 26.8 19.3 23.9 40.2 14.6 10.6 35.1 32.6


Data source: ANFAC

113,277

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

86.8

51.6

24.8

57.6

45.4

18.126.8

19.323.9

40.2

14.610.6

35.1 32.6




Car Market Forecast : ESTONIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐5.4 YTY (%) 26.1 YTD (%) 7.4 FY (%) 9.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 1,712 1,354 1,612 1,913 1,997 1,694 1,771 1,551 1,569 1,791 1,549 1,002 18,513 19,515

2014 1,638 1,389 1,709 1,990 1,971 1,893 1,901 1,542 1,841 2,049 1,953 1,530 19,876 21,406

2015 2,200 1,761 2,316 2,712 2,771 2,550 2,410 2,152 2,318 2,394 2,239 1,770 25,823 27,593

YTY (%) ‐4.3 2.6 6.0 4.0 ‐1.3 11.7 7.3 ‐0.6 17.3 14.4 26.1 52.7 7.4 9.7



21,406

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐4.3

2.66.0 4.0

‐1.3

11.77.3

‐0.6

17.314.4

26.1

52.7

7.4 9.7




Car Market Forecast : ESTONIA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐3.0 YTY (%) 4.6 YTD (%) 10.2 FY (%) 10.5 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 277 229 203 248 283 248 236 217 194 235 259 158 2,629 2,787

2014 436 215 247 245 276 220 193 242 273 278 271 182 2,896 3,078

2015 326 211 248 257 291 248 234 257 266 278 276 187 2,891 3,078

YTY (%) 57.4 ‐6.1 21.7 ‐1.2 ‐2.5 ‐11.3 ‐18.2 11.5 40.7 18.3 4.6 15.4 10.2 10.5



3,078

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

57.4

‐6.1

21.7

‐1.2 ‐2.5‐11.3

‐18.2

11.5

40.7

18.3

4.6

15.410.2 10.5




Car Market Forecast : FINLAND PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐17.8 YTY (%) ‐3.3 YTD (%) 1.6 FY (%) 0.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 10,258 7,891 9,499 9,865 10,234 8,810 8,457 7,739 8,219 9,093 7,463 5,902 97,528 103,430

2014 12,696 8,179 9,626 9,317 10,109 9,202 8,016 7,524 8,402 8,836 7,220 4,978 99,127 104,105

2015 13,758 8,233 10,677 10,225 10,606 9,860 8,150 8,021 8,615 8,527 6,990 4,978 103,662 108,640

YTY (%) 23.8 3.6 1.3 ‐5.6 ‐1.2 4.4 ‐5.2 ‐2.8 2.2 ‐2.8 ‐3.3 ‐15.7 1.6 0.7


Data source: ACEA

104,105

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

23.8

3.61.3

‐5.6

‐1.2

4.4

‐5.2‐2.8

2.2

‐2.8 ‐3.3

‐15.7

1.6 0.7




Car Market Forecast : FINLAND LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐17.9 YTY (%) 4.1 YTD (%) 2.8 FY (%) 2.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 975 804 834 917 967 970 828 788 977 871 786 849 9,717 10,566

2014 1,256 834 864 885 881 934 716 898 931 974 818 860 9,991 10,851

2015 1,127 815 1,156 760 905 917 689 834 906 900 806 828 9,813 10,641

YTY (%) 28.8 3.7 3.6 ‐3.5 ‐8.9 ‐3.7 ‐13.5 14.0 ‐4.7 11.8 4.1 1.3 2.8 2.7


Data source: ACEA

10,851

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

28.8

3.7 3.6

‐3.5

‐8.9

‐3.7

‐13.5

14.0

‐4.7

11.8

4.11.3 2.8 2.7




Car Market Forecast : FRANCE PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐15.1 YTY (%) ‐2.7 YTD (%) 1.1 FY (%) 0.6 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is worse than expected and the September rebound not confirmed


2013 124,798 143,255 165,829 157,749 148,490 191,355 150,218 85,953 142,166 166,495 138,829 175,319 1,615,137 1,790,456

2014 125,454 141,290 179,865 166,959 148,951 196,233 143,759 83,715 151,101 160,149 135,067 168,715 1,632,543 1,801,258

2015 131,694 146,071 179,626 162,597 154,605 193,092 148,656 96,808 147,158 162,829 145,709 171,149 1,668,845 1,839,994

YTY (%) 0.5 ‐1.4 8.5 5.8 0.3 2.5 ‐4.3 ‐2.6 6.3 ‐3.8 ‐2.7 ‐3.8 1.1 0.6


Data source: CCFA

1,801,258

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

0.5

‐1.4

8.5

5.8

0.3

2.5

‐4.3

‐2.6

6.3

‐3.8‐2.7

‐3.8

1.1 0.6




Car Market Forecast : FRANCE LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐14.1 YTY (%) ‐0.9 YTD (%) 2.3 FY (%) 2.0 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 29,503 29,603 32,709 32,397 28,075 34,702 31,145 17,886 29,009 36,136 29,698 34,126 330,863 364,989

2014 31,862 30,096 33,235 33,200 29,178 36,894 29,538 17,256 33,161 34,529 29,427 34,072 338,376 372,448

2015 29,860 29,226 33,910 31,722 29,379 35,833 28,953 17,270 30,248 33,902 29,913 32,649 330,216 362,866

YTY (%) 8.0 1.7 1.6 2.5 3.9 6.3 ‐5.2 ‐3.5 14.3 ‐4.4 ‐0.9 ‐0.2 2.3 2.0


Data source: CCFA

372,448

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

8.0

1.7 1.6 2.53.9

6.3

‐5.2‐3.5

14.3

‐4.4

‐0.9 ‐0.2

2.3 2.0




Car Market Forecast : UK PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐4.7 YTY (%) 8.0 YTD (%) 9.4 FY (%) 9.1 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market still confirms its positive trend


2013 143,643 66,749 394,806 163,357 180,111 214,957 162,228 65,937 403,136 157,314 159,581 152,918 2,111,819 2,264,737

2014 154,562 68,736 464,824 176,820 194,032 228,291 172,907 72,163 425,861 179,714 172,327 159,770 2,310,237 2,470,007

2015 165,440 77,840 472,444 183,198 199,370 232,759 176,646 75,293 428,480 181,906 174,162 161,306 2,367,538 2,528,844

YTY (%) 7.6 3.0 17.7 8.2 7.7 6.2 6.6 9.4 5.6 14.2 8.0 4.5 9.4 9.1


Data source: SMMT

2,470,007

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

7.6

3.0

17.7

8.2 7.76.2 6.6

9.4

5.6

14.2

8.0

4.5

9.4 9.1




Car Market Forecast : UK LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐0.2 YTY (%) 17.1 YTD (%) 18.5 FY (%) 18.3 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 16,110 9,200 43,804 20,830 20,643 23,165 18,525 10,344 43,066 22,473 22,647 21,088 250,807 271,895

2014 20,216 11,731 50,064 20,620 24,283 30,712 24,764 12,652 49,123 26,570 26,516 24,276 297,251 321,527

2015 23,503 15,080 52,454 23,571 26,397 31,814 25,722 13,852 49,430 26,894 26,688 24,315 315,405 339,721

YTY (%) 25.5 27.5 14.3 ‐1.0 17.6 32.6 33.7 22.3 14.1 18.2 17.1 15.1 18.5 18.3


Data source: ACEA

321,527

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

25.527.5

14.3

‐1.0

17.6

32.6 33.7

22.3

14.118.2 17.1

15.118.5 18.3




Car Market Forecast : GREECE PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐20.5 YTY (%) ‐8.8 YTD (%) 19.1 FY (%) 17.2 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 5,533 4,116 4,493 5,333 5,241 5,648 6,462 3,372 3,814 4,971 5,465 4,248 54,448 58,696

2014 6,385 4,356 5,866 5,444 7,459 7,964 7,627 3,693 5,055 6,003 4,983 3,938 64,835 68,773

2015 7,028 4,572 5,616 5,505 6,522 6,863 7,025 4,080 4,328 5,074 4,873 3,641 61,485 65,126

YTY (%) 15.4 5.8 30.6 2.1 42.3 41.0 18.0 9.5 32.5 20.8 ‐8.8 ‐7.3 19.1 17.2


Data source: ACEA

68,773

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

15.4

5.8

30.6

2.1

42.3 41.0

18.0

9.5

32.5

20.8

‐8.8 ‐7.3

19.1 17.2




Car Market Forecast : GREECE LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐59.6 YTY (%) 0.6 YTD (%) 30.8 FY (%) 33.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 275 249 235 406 287 281 397 248 266 270 337 221 3,251 3,472

2014 452 346 336 369 397 423 446 336 308 500 339 390 4,252 4,642

2015 419 380 371 429 400 411 445 375 377 428 401 387 4,437 4,824

YTY (%) 64.4 39.0 43.0 ‐9.1 38.3 50.5 12.3 35.5 15.8 85.2 0.6 76.5 30.8 33.7


Data source: ACEA

4,642

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

64.4

39.043.0

‐9.1

38.3

50.5

12.3

35.5

15.8

85.2

0.6

76.5

30.8 33.7




Car Market Forecast : HUNGARY PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐4.3 YTY (%) 19.4 YTD (%) 20.1 FY (%) 19.3 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 3,654 3,839 5,063 4,623 5,006 4,982 5,037 4,165 4,679 5,124 4,942 5,026 51,114 56,140

2014 4,374 4,957 6,166 5,507 5,739 6,243 6,129 4,766 5,482 6,120 5,901 5,579 61,384 66,963

2015 4,729 5,051 6,360 5,955 6,333 6,795 6,723 5,611 6,117 6,512 6,293 5,986 66,480 72,466

YTY (%) 19.7 29.1 21.8 19.1 14.6 25.3 21.7 14.4 17.2 19.4 19.4 11.0 20.1 19.3



66,963

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

19.7

29.1

21.819.1

14.6

25.3

21.7

14.417.2

19.4 19.4

11.0

20.1 19.3




Car Market Forecast : HUNGARY LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 20.5 YTY (%) 8.3 YTD (%) 44.8 FY (%) 43.1 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 659 801 822 734 797 853 893 1,004 913 958 1,489 1,504 9,923 11,427

2014 1,295 975 1,242 1,253 1,371 1,309 1,383 1,229 1,284 1,417 1,613 1,985 14,371 16,356

2015 1,186 1,154 1,365 1,228 1,269 1,358 1,255 1,297 1,317 1,377 1,624 1,985 14,430 16,414

YTY (%) 96.5 21.7 51.1 70.7 72.0 53.5 54.9 22.4 40.6 47.9 8.3 32.0 44.8 43.1



16,356

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

96.5

21.7

51.1

70.7 72.0

53.5 54.9

22.4

40.647.9

8.3

32.0

44.8 43.1




Car Market Forecast : INDONESIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐19.6 YTY (%) ‐0.6 YTD (%) ‐2.0 FY (%) ‐0.5 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is table in September but should increase until the end of the year


2013 66,674 72,681 69,247 73,485 72,858 74,158 82,225 55,066 74,652 67,956 63,983 55,342 772,985 828,327

2014 61,373 64,554 68,048 63,520 59,840 84,282 69,205 71,161 75,034 76,929 63,578 66,524 757,524 824,048

2015 68,200 70,943 71,523 69,591 68,060 74,827 74,153 65,848 72,889 76,122 70,885 69,474 783,040 852,514

YTY (%) ‐8.0 ‐11.2 ‐1.7 ‐13.6 ‐17.9 13.7 ‐15.8 29.2 0.5 13.2 ‐0.6 20.2 ‐2.0 ‐0.5


Data source: CORAM,GAIKINDO

824,048

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐8.0‐11.2

‐1.7

‐13.6‐17.9

13.7

‐15.8

29.2

0.5

13.2

‐0.6

20.2




Car Market Forecast : INDONESIA CV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐32.1 YTY (%) ‐42.0 YTD (%) ‐9.2 FY (%) ‐10.5 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 30,044 30,597 26,749 28,772 26,839 30,110 29,945 22,897 32,822 32,491 31,043 28,085 322,309 350,394

2014 27,936 31,056 31,605 28,918 25,063 26,378 22,188 25,567 27,677 28,428 17,990 20,901 292,806 313,707

2015 20,877 22,333 22,551 22,381 21,532 23,365 23,276 20,762 23,506 24,961 22,202 22,307 247,746 270,053

YTY (%) ‐7.0 1.5 18.2 0.5 ‐6.6 ‐12.4 ‐25.9 11.7 ‐15.7 ‐12.5 ‐42.0 ‐25.6 ‐9.2 ‐10.5


Data source: CORAM,GAIKINDO

313,707

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐7.0

1.5

18.2

0.5

‐6.6‐12.4

‐25.9

11.7

‐15.7‐12.5

‐42.0

‐25.6

‐9.2 ‐10.5




Car Market Forecast : INDIA TOT November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.1 YTY (%) 2.2 YTD (%) 1.7 FY (%) 2.0 FY 2014 =

Comment : The "Modi effect" is finished and the market go back to recession


2013 230,087 214,093 243,844 199,496 193,338 187,462 176,949 180,897 207,198 229,057 196,095 180,713 2,258,516 2,439,229

2014 215,000 212,898 232,423 183,388 202,659 212,734 194,042 209,006 218,505 216,808 200,432 190,922 2,297,895 2,488,816

2015 214,551 213,389 226,921 192,730 206,175 213,197 200,164 210,598 216,207 216,038 206,854 197,989 2,316,824 2,514,813

YTY (%) ‐6.6 ‐0.6 ‐4.7 ‐8.1 4.8 13.5 9.7 15.5 5.5 ‐5.3 2.2 5.6 1.7 2.0


Data source: CORAM,SIAM

2,488,816

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐6.6

‐0.6

‐4.7

‐8.1

4.8

13.5

9.7

15.5

5.5

‐5.3

2.2

5.6

1.7 2.0




Car Market Forecast : IRELAND PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐74.1 YTY (%) 11.6 YTD (%) 29.7 FY (%) 30.1 FY 2014 =

Comment : September is disappointing and doesn't confirm the previous surge


2013 17,259 10,579 11,650 6,152 5,947 1,672 11,639 3,697 3,157 1,692 701 212 74,145 74,357

2014 22,913 12,753 14,358 7,877 6,291 1,690 18,723 4,869 3,911 2,036 782 501 96,203 96,704

2015 23,354 13,028 14,582 8,071 6,868 3,010 16,328 4,745 3,798 2,096 874 523 96,753 97,276

YTY (%) 32.8 20.6 23.2 28.0 5.8 1.1 60.9 31.7 23.9 20.3 11.6 136.5 29.7 30.1


Data source: ACEA

96,704

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

32.820.6 23.2 28.0

5.8 1.1

60.9

31.723.9 20.3

11.6

136.5

29.7 30.1




Car Market Forecast : IRELAND LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐100.4 YTY (%) 56.5 YTD (%) 54.7 FY (%) 58.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 1,971 1,123 1,243 966 1,048 428 1,305 816 813 766 384 64 10,863 10,927

2014 3,165 1,616 1,832 1,315 1,253 525 2,520 1,249 1,355 1,370 601 540 16,801 17,341

2015 3,306 1,953 2,145 1,691 1,637 997 2,750 1,633 1,727 1,740 1,064 1,011 20,643 21,654

YTY (%) 60.6 43.9 47.4 36.1 19.6 22.7 93.1 53.1 66.7 78.9 56.5 743.7 54.7 58.7


Data source: ACEA

17,341

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

60.6 43.9 47.4 36.1 19.6 22.793.1

53.1 66.7 78.9 56.5

743.7

54.7 58.7




Car Market Forecast : IRAN TOT November 2014

MTM (%) ‐27.9 YTY (%) 48.8 YTD (%) 28.9 FY (%) 29.5 FY 2014 =

Comment : Market booming and start again of Peugeot production (ended in Fev 2012)

Main Event : Nov 2011 ‐ Jan 2014 : International sanctions


2013 64,981 63,036 66,763 22,433 38,486 45,950 51,277 34,969 54,461 56,628 50,623 64,764 549,607 614,371

2014 62,092 54,589 54,589 33,516 70,589 73,621 65,216 64,297 63,378 91,108 75,315 87,529 708,310 795,839

2015 84,091 79,875 79,332 66,667 88,081 89,522 84,230 83,342 82,452 98,399 88,769 95,598 924,761 1,020,358

YTY (%) ‐4.4 ‐13.4 ‐18.2 49.4 83.4 60.2 27.2 83.9 16.4 60.9 48.8 35.2 28.9 29.5


Data source: CORAM, IVMA : local production figures

795,839

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐4.4‐13.4

‐18.2

49.4

83.4

60.2

27.2

83.9

16.4

60.9

48.8

35.228.9 29.5




Car Market Forecast : ICELAND PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐29.6 YTY (%) 38.1 YTD (%) 29.2 FY (%) 29.9 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 460 380 493 579 1,424 1,468 635 429 350 467 299 290 6,984 7,274

2014 539 495 537 684 2,155 1,860 743 496 553 551 413 422 9,026 9,448

2015 564 495 564 676 1,722 1,696 736 516 526 541 450 435 8,488 8,923

YTY (%) 17.2 30.3 8.9 18.1 51.3 26.7 17.0 15.6 58.0 18.0 38.1 45.4 29.2 29.9


Data source: ACEA

9,448

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

17.2

30.3

8.9

18.1

51.3

26.7

17.0 15.6

58.0

18.0

38.1

45.4

29.2 29.9




Car Market Forecast : ICELAND LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐59.5 YTY (%) 60.0 YTD (%) 43.0 FY (%) 41.0 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 40 40 36 47 91 57 52 46 61 42 35 53 547 600

2014 75 63 76 70 100 91 59 53 58 81 56 64 782 846

2015 64 62 69 60 80 82 63 69 76 76 71 73 770 843

YTY (%) 87.5 57.5 111.1 48.9 9.9 59.6 13.5 15.2 ‐4.9 92.9 60.0 20.7 43.0 41.0


Data source: ACEA

846

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

87.5

57.5

111.1

48.9

9.9

59.6

13.5 15.2

‐4.9

92.9

60.0

20.7

43.0 41.0




Car Market Forecast : ITALY PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐12.4 YTY (%) 5.0 YTD (%) 3.8 FY (%) 3.9 FY 2014 =

Comment : Strong increase in October


2013 114,102 108,963 132,753 116,838 136,850 122,815 108,337 53,295 106,931 111,466 102,871 88,705 1,215,221 1,303,926

2014 117,802 118,328 139,337 119,099 131,602 127,489 114,343 53,191 110,436 121,736 107,965 93,083 1,261,328 1,354,411

2015 126,901 121,376 143,241 120,282 131,344 126,601 114,206 52,214 109,933 114,295 105,419 90,191 1,265,813 1,356,004

YTY (%) 3.2 8.6 5.0 1.9 ‐3.8 3.8 5.5 ‐0.2 3.3 9.2 5.0 4.9 3.8 3.9


Data source: ANFIA

1,354,411

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

3.2

8.6

5.0

1.9

‐3.8

3.8

5.5

‐0.2

3.3

9.2

5.0 4.93.8 3.9




Car Market Forecast : ITALY LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐10.7 YTY (%) 8.3 YTD (%) 19.3 FY (%) 18.8 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 8,132 7,847 8,761 8,466 9,104 9,117 8,360 3,837 8,069 9,362 9,323 10,236 90,378 100,614

2014 10,746 9,000 10,550 9,900 10,450 10,000 10,670 4,280 11,000 11,100 10,100 11,775 107,796 119,571

2015 10,248 10,400 12,603 11,006 11,252 10,989 10,941 4,942 9,439 10,856 10,491 11,857 113,168 125,025

YTY (%) 32.1 14.7 20.4 16.9 14.8 9.7 27.6 11.5 36.3 18.6 8.3 15.0 19.3 18.8


Data source: ANFIA

119,571

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

32.1

14.7

20.416.9

14.8

9.7

27.6

11.5

36.3

18.6

8.3

15.0

19.3 18.8




Car Market Forecast : JAPAN PC November 2014

MTM (%) 3.2 YTY (%) ‐10.2 YTD (%) 3.2 FY (%) 2.0 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is unstable with another drop in November


2013 332,066 412,889 570,691 308,556 308,436 378,706 401,937 310,691 446,004 354,496 378,596 359,214 4,203,068 4,562,282

2014 433,616 490,509 665,985 292,825 304,370 379,242 391,376 281,325 431,823 328,331 339,831 314,077 4,339,233 4,653,310

2015 375,475 445,866 612,620 298,886 304,674 377,453 395,757 295,912 438,541 341,558 359,865 337,591 4,246,608 4,584,199

YTY (%) 30.6 18.8 16.7 ‐5.1 ‐1.3 0.1 ‐2.6 ‐9.5 ‐3.2 ‐7.4 ‐10.2 ‐12.6 3.2 2.0


Data source: JAMA

4,653,310

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

30.6

18.816.7

‐5.1‐1.3

0.1

‐2.6

‐9.5

‐3.2‐7.4

‐10.2‐12.6

3.2 2.0




Car Market Forecast : JAPAN LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 11.6 YTY (%) ‐5.5 YTD (%) 3.7 FY (%) 3.1 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market drops in November


2013 43,522 52,815 73,850 47,866 49,546 59,647 57,458 44,456 59,458 55,040 65,148 49,897 608,806 658,703

2014 52,354 60,491 88,334 44,940 48,862 58,872 55,587 39,728 65,590 55,143 61,551 47,971 631,452 679,423

2015 52,936 58,729 84,346 46,380 50,206 59,116 56,957 42,337 64,171 55,955 63,021 49,486 634,154 683,640

YTY (%) 20.3 14.5 19.6 ‐6.1 ‐1.4 ‐1.3 ‐3.3 ‐10.6 10.3 0.2 ‐5.5 ‐3.9 3.7 3.1


Data source: JAMA

679,423

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

20.3

14.5

19.6

‐6.1

‐1.4 ‐1.3‐3.3

‐10.6

10.3

0.2

‐5.5‐3.9

3.7 3.1




Car Market Forecast : KOREA TOT November 2014

MTM (%) 4.7 YTY (%) 7.3 YTD (%) 4.5 FY (%) 3.9 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is recovering from the strikes of last month


2013 104,377 98,826 118,217 118,929 120,374 113,440 124,963 110,338 101,021 122,027 119,195 123,545 1,251,707 1,375,252

2014 107,150 107,940 122,514 130,145 122,082 122,061 128,114 105,983 111,419 122,247 127,950 121,659 1,307,605 1,429,264

2015 112,715 113,146 121,097 125,260 120,861 120,850 124,152 112,078 115,044 120,951 124,062 120,630 1,310,215 1,430,845

YTY (%) 2.7 9.2 3.6 9.4 1.4 7.6 2.5 ‐3.9 10.3 0.2 7.3 ‐1.5 4.5 3.9


Data source: CORAM,KAMA

1,429,264

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

2.7

9.2

3.6

9.4

1.4

7.6

2.5

‐3.9

10.3

0.2

7.3

‐1.5

4.5 3.9




Car Market Forecast : LITUANIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.9 YTY (%) 1.9 YTD (%) 20.1 FY (%) 19.5 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 998 781 955 1,043 1,109 1,121 1,070 830 986 1,195 1,136 929 11,224 12,153

2014 1,176 1,094 1,136 1,418 1,338 1,223 1,446 964 1,276 1,252 1,158 1,037 13,481 14,518

2015 1,129 973 1,039 1,167 1,154 1,076 1,111 809 986 1,060 939 803 11,442 12,245

YTY (%) 17.8 40.1 19.0 36.0 20.6 9.1 35.1 16.1 29.4 4.8 1.9 11.6 20.1 19.5



14,518

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

17.8

40.1

19.0

36.0

20.6

9.1

35.1

16.1

29.4

4.81.9

11.6

20.1 19.5




Car Market Forecast : LITUANIA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐30.0 YTY (%) ‐23.5 YTD (%) 38.1 FY (%) 29.4 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 157 137 117 133 169 126 155 101 130 150 204 247 1,579 1,826

2014 500 154 192 177 208 176 148 119 150 201 156 182 2,181 2,363

2015 205 127 161 172 189 163 179 160 162 177 172 189 1,869 2,058

YTY (%) 218.5 12.4 64.1 33.1 23.1 39.7 ‐4.5 17.8 15.4 34.0 ‐23.5 ‐26.3 38.1 29.4



2,363

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

218.5

12.4

64.1

33.123.1

39.7

‐4.5

17.8 15.434.0

‐23.5 ‐26.3

38.1 29.4




Car Market Forecast : LUXEMBOURG PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐23.0 YTY (%) ‐1.6 YTD (%) 4.7 FY (%) 5.0 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 3,375 4,090 4,850 5,160 4,614 4,320 3,905 2,554 3,158 4,499 3,544 2,555 44,069 46,624

2014 3,415 4,123 4,773 5,220 5,198 4,416 4,476 2,944 3,582 4,522 3,488 2,799 46,157 48,956

2015 3,453 4,203 4,994 5,259 4,964 4,468 4,266 2,851 3,433 4,405 3,583 2,789 45,880 48,669

YTY (%) 1.2 0.8 ‐1.6 1.2 12.7 2.2 14.6 15.3 13.4 0.5 ‐1.6 9.5 4.7 5.0


Data source: ACEA

48,956

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

1.2 0.8

‐1.6

1.2

12.7

2.2

14.6 15.313.4

0.5

‐1.6

9.5

4.7 5.0




Car Market Forecast : LUXEMBOURG LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐14.1 YTY (%) 1.5 YTD (%) 6.4 FY (%) 6.0 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 244 238 317 283 254 303 284 227 266 348 275 205 3,039 3,244

2014 400 274 323 350 248 316 288 180 248 328 279 204 3,234 3,438

2015 298 276 315 303 278 312 293 213 233 293 255 190 3,070 3,260

YTY (%) 63.9 15.1 1.9 23.7 ‐2.4 4.3 1.4 ‐20.7 ‐6.8 ‐5.7 1.5 ‐0.5 6.4 6.0


Data source: ACEA

3,438

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

63.9

15.1

1.9

23.7

‐2.4

4.3 1.4

‐20.7

‐6.8 ‐5.7

1.5

‐0.5

6.4 6.0




Car Market Forecast : LATVIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐17.3 YTY (%) 12.5 YTD (%) 17.0 FY (%) 17.4 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 776 773 805 796 960 1,155 934 752 940 1,161 894 818 9,946 10,764

2014 968 903 981 1,067 1,121 1,308 1,176 921 980 1,207 1,006 1,001 11,638 12,639

2015 977 902 988 1,022 1,086 1,199 1,062 900 939 1,132 990 958 11,198 12,157

YTY (%) 24.7 16.8 21.9 34.0 16.8 13.2 25.9 22.5 4.3 4.0 12.5 22.4 17.0 17.4



12,639

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

24.7

16.8

21.9

34.0

16.813.2

25.922.5

4.3 4.0

12.5

22.4

17.0 17.4




Car Market Forecast : LATVIA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 6.4 YTY (%) ‐13.2 YTD (%) 22.0 FY (%) 20.9 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 135 120 176 198 185 128 187 159 192 264 243 190 1,987 2,177

2014 378 161 249 162 168 186 270 270 175 194 211 209 2,424 2,633

2015 215 184 227 207 210 211 225 221 204 222 221 220 2,347 2,567

YTY (%) 180.0 34.2 41.5 ‐18.2 ‐9.2 45.3 44.4 69.8 ‐8.9 ‐26.5 ‐13.2 9.9 22.0 20.9



2,633

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

180.0

34.2 41.5

‐18.2‐9.2

45.3 44.4

69.8

‐8.9‐26.5

‐13.2

9.922.0 20.9




Car Market Forecast : MEXICO CARS November 2014

MTM (%) 12.1 YTY (%) 12.0 YTD (%) 4.0 FY (%) 4.2 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is in a good orientation since the summer


2013 56,603 54,174 56,594 56,038 57,918 55,656 56,640 57,079 50,732 56,236 64,486 76,061 622,156 698,217

2014 55,905 51,816 55,583 50,365 47,594 55,785 65,574 68,611 58,107 65,434 72,236 80,287 647,010 727,297

2015 65,456 64,193 65,677 61,952 62,986 64,836 68,312 70,615 65,519 69,655 74,462 84,004 733,662 817,665

YTY (%) ‐1.2 ‐4.4 ‐1.8 ‐10.1 ‐17.8 0.2 15.8 20.2 14.5 16.4 12.0 5.6 4.0 4.2


Data source: CORAM,AMIA

727,297

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐1.2‐4.4

‐1.8

‐10.1

‐17.8

0.2

15.8

20.2

14.516.4

12.0

5.6 4.0 4.2




Car Market Forecast : MEXICO LT November 2014

MTM (%) 12.2 YTY (%) 9.7 YTD (%) 6.9 FY (%) 6.4 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is in a good orientation since the summer


2013 27,666 26,019 26,173 27,489 29,600 28,057 30,005 31,253 27,619 32,025 35,937 43,303 321,843 365,146

2014 29,599 28,122 30,099 26,500 29,506 28,342 30,637 35,270 31,009 35,489 39,409 44,381 343,982 388,363

2015 34,110 34,483 34,199 32,686 35,473 33,172 33,938 36,855 34,116 36,825 39,534 45,766 385,390 431,155

YTY (%) 7.0 8.1 15.0 ‐3.6 ‐0.3 1.0 2.1 12.9 12.3 10.8 9.7 2.5 6.9 6.4


Data source: CORAM,AMIA

388,363

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

7.08.1

15.0

‐3.6

‐0.3

1.02.1

12.9 12.310.8

9.7

2.5

6.9 6.4




Car Market Forecast : MALAYSIA PC October 2014

MTM (%) 12.7 YTY (%) ‐0.8 YTD (%) 1.2 FY (%) 0.0 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is stable in October


2013 48,720 40,477 50,562 45,564 43,398 47,270 61,032 45,052 48,411 47,930 45,749 52,490 478,416 576,655

2014 44,702 45,704 52,122 52,488 49,865 51,898 53,578 44,898 41,397 47,544 43,743 48,454 484,196 576,392

2015 45,105 41,248 49,985 45,918 46,310 46,912 50,830 46,871 42,706 47,117 44,197 48,416 463,002 555,615

YTY (%) ‐8.2 12.9 3.1 15.2 14.9 9.8 ‐12.2 ‐0.3 ‐14.5 ‐0.8 ‐4.4 ‐7.7 1.2 0.0


Data source: MAA

576,392

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

10 2011

01 2012

04 2012

07 2012

10 2012

01 2013

04 2013

07 2013

10 2013

01 2014

04 2014

07 2014

10 2014

01 2015

04 2015

07 2015

10 2015

01 2016

04 2016

07 2016

‐8.2

12.9

3.1

15.2 14.9

9.8

‐12.2

‐0.3

‐14.5

‐0.8

‐4.4‐7.7

1.2

0.0Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD FY



Car Market Forecast : MALAYSIA CV October 2014

MTM (%) 4.1 YTY (%) ‐7.1 YTD (%) ‐3.6 FY (%) ‐3.9 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 6,346 4,569 7,060 6,925 6,236 6,361 7,399 6,052 6,534 7,148 6,503 8,003 64,630 79,136

2014 5,571 5,014 6,797 6,244 6,074 6,663 6,689 6,227 6,374 6,643 6,655 7,111 62,296 76,062

2015 5,960 5,471 7,021 6,696 6,469 6,684 7,057 6,561 6,475 7,069 6,899 7,297 65,462 79,658

YTY (%) ‐12.2 9.7 ‐3.7 ‐9.8 ‐2.6 4.7 ‐9.6 2.9 ‐2.4 ‐7.1 2.3 ‐11.1 ‐3.6 ‐3.9


Data source: MAA

76,062

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10 2011

01 2012

04 2012

07 2012

10 2012

01 2013

04 2013

07 2013

10 2013

01 2014

04 2014

07 2014

10 2014

01 2015

04 2015

07 2015

10 2015

01 2016

04 2016

07 2016

‐12.2

9.7

‐3.7

‐9.8

‐2.6

4.7

‐9.6

2.9

‐2.4

‐7.1

2.3

‐11.1

‐3.6 ‐3.9




Car Market Forecast : NETHERLANDS PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐8.0 YTY (%) ‐19.5 YTD (%) ‐6.3 FY (%) ‐9.9 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 47,957 31,902 35,562 30,408 30,083 35,043 30,475 28,309 31,394 36,315 40,357 39,163 377,805 416,968

2014 44,568 33,625 29,530 28,479 31,092 32,960 29,867 25,722 30,214 35,424 32,507 21,898 353,988 375,886

2015 53,758 36,194 39,384 35,623 37,493 42,115 34,853 32,166 35,768 37,309 34,073 20,095 418,736 438,831

YTY (%) ‐7.1 5.4 ‐17.0 ‐6.3 3.4 ‐5.9 ‐2.0 ‐9.1 ‐3.8 ‐2.5 ‐19.5 ‐44.1 ‐6.3 ‐9.9


Data source: ACEA

375,886

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐7.1

5.4

‐17.0

‐6.3

3.4

‐5.9‐2.0

‐9.1

‐3.8 ‐2.5

‐19.5

‐44.1

‐6.3‐9.9




Car Market Forecast : NETHERLANDS LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 4.8 YTY (%) 3.6 YTD (%) 2.9 FY (%) 0.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 6,716 4,138 5,081 4,250 3,995 4,178 3,914 3,409 3,701 4,159 4,208 2,568 47,749 50,317

2014 6,561 4,159 4,996 4,234 4,365 4,691 3,984 3,395 4,214 4,159 4,360 1,536 49,118 50,654

2015 7,020 4,348 5,133 4,157 4,219 4,801 3,852 3,552 3,939 4,138 4,134 1,394 49,292 50,686

YTY (%) ‐2.3 0.5 ‐1.7 ‐0.4 9.3 12.3 1.8 ‐0.4 13.9 3.6 ‐40.2 2.9 0.7


Data source: ACEA

50,654

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐2.3

0.5

‐1.7 ‐0.4

9.312.3

1.8

‐0.4

13.9

0.03.6

‐40.2

2.9 0.7




Car Market Forecast : NORWAY PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐11.5 YTY (%) ‐4.9 YTD (%) 0.6 FY (%) 0.4 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 11,639 11,322 10,735 13,988 12,012 10,948 11,312 11,660 12,168 12,893 12,079 11,395 130,756 142,151

2014 11,385 11,246 13,861 12,115 12,337 11,441 11,690 11,444 11,585 12,963 11,486 11,174 131,553 142,727

2015 11,412 11,173 12,659 12,311 12,573 11,798 12,322 11,873 11,900 12,725 12,188 11,520 132,934 144,454

YTY (%) ‐2.2 ‐0.7 29.1 ‐13.4 2.7 4.5 3.3 ‐1.9 ‐4.8 0.5 ‐4.9 ‐1.9 0.6 0.4


Data source: ACEA

142,727

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐2.2 ‐0.7

29.1

‐13.4

2.7 4.5 3.3

‐1.9‐4.8

0.5

‐4.9‐1.9

0.6 0.4




Car Market Forecast : NORWAY LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.9 YTY (%) 10.3 YTD (%) ‐0.9 FY (%) ‐1.3 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 2,755 2,419 2,483 3,310 2,367 2,468 2,045 2,602 2,300 2,592 2,315 3,218 27,656 30,874

2014 2,386 2,203 2,725 2,574 2,607 2,508 1,895 2,806 2,396 2,757 2,553 3,078 27,410 30,488

2015 2,273 2,272 2,656 2,620 2,575 2,491 2,030 2,676 2,344 2,527 2,483 2,981 26,947 29,928

YTY (%) ‐13.4 ‐8.9 9.7 ‐22.2 10.1 1.6 ‐7.3 7.8 4.2 6.4 10.3 ‐4.4 ‐0.9 ‐1.3


Data source: ACEA

30,488

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐13.4

‐8.9

9.7

‐22.2

10.1

1.6

‐7.3

7.84.2

6.410.3

‐4.4‐0.9 ‐1.3Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD FY



Car Market Forecast : NEW ZEALAND PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐10.6 YTY (%) 8.2 YTD (%) 10.2 FY (%) 10.4 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is booming since July 2009


2013 7,385 5,799 6,800 5,908 6,347 7,542 6,769 6,828 7,272 7,962 7,453 6,371 76,065 82,436

2014 8,293 6,572 7,994 6,151 6,802 8,517 7,071 7,083 8,382 8,910 8,063 7,145 83,838 90,983

2015 8,708 7,313 8,599 7,325 7,799 8,927 7,955 8,075 8,798 9,060 8,227 7,380 90,786 98,166

YTY (%) 12.3 13.3 17.6 4.1 7.2 12.9 4.5 3.7 15.3 11.9 8.2 12.2 10.2 10.4


Data source: MIA

90,983

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

12.313.3

17.6

4.1

7.2

12.9

4.5 3.7

15.3

11.9

8.2

12.210.2 10.4




Car Market Forecast : NEW ZEALAND CV November 2014

MTM (%) YTY (%) 6.1 YTD (%) 19.2 FY (%) 19.1 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is booming since July 2009


2013 1,908 2,148 2,705 2,235 2,577 3,181 2,632 2,602 2,799 2,734 2,935 2,405 28,456 30,861

2014 2,235 2,567 3,244 2,578 3,262 4,002 3,242 3,106 3,458 3,113 3,113 2,823 33,920 36,743

2015 2,795 3,057 3,596 2,930 3,456 4,066 3,373 3,304 3,565 3,365 3,470 3,124 36,977 40,101

YTY (%) 17.1 19.5 19.9 15.3 26.6 25.8 23.2 19.4 23.5 13.9 6.1 17.4 19.2 19.1


Data source: MIA

36,743

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

17.119.5 19.9

15.3

26.6 25.823.2

19.4

23.5

13.9

6.1

17.419.2 19.1




Car Market Forecast : PAKISTAN PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐10.4 YTY (%) 23.3 YTD (%) 0.1 FY (%) 1.8 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market has now recovered from the recession of the beginning of the year


2013 11,594 11,372 11,845 10,653 12,109 11,896 9,359 9,700 9,747 8,756 8,468 7,319 115,499 122,818

2014 12,043 11,317 10,457 10,929 10,701 10,457 5,995 10,666 11,255 11,353 10,438 9,416 115,611 125,027

2015 12,048 11,027 11,339 11,062 11,563 11,829 9,965 11,622 11,955 12,527 12,024 10,812 126,961 137,773

YTY (%) 3.9 ‐0.5 ‐11.7 2.6 ‐11.6 ‐12.1 ‐35.9 10.0 15.5 29.7 23.3 28.7 0.1 1.8


Data source: CORAM,PAMA

125,027

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

3.9

‐0.5

‐11.7

2.6

‐11.6 ‐12.1

‐35.9

10.015.5

29.723.3

28.7

0.1 1.8




Car Market Forecast : PAKISTAN CV November 2014

MTM (%) 4.4 YTY (%) 20.6 YTD (%) 11.7 FY (%) 9.6 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market has now recovered from the recession of the beginning of the year


2013 1,217 1,256 1,499 1,358 1,193 1,778 1,220 1,396 1,419 1,199 1,120 1,549 14,655 16,204

2014 1,867 1,472 1,812 1,321 1,636 1,624 953 1,592 1,438 1,298 1,351 1,396 16,364 17,760

2015 1,403 1,410 1,417 1,424 1,431 1,437 1,361 1,451 1,458 1,465 1,472 1,479 15,729 17,208

YTY (%) 53.4 17.2 20.9 ‐2.7 37.1 ‐8.7 ‐21.9 14.0 1.3 8.3 20.6 ‐9.9 11.7 9.6


Data source: CORAM,PAMA

17,760

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

53.4

17.220.9

‐2.7

37.1

‐8.7

‐21.9

14.0

1.38.3

20.6

‐9.9

11.7 9.6




Car Market Forecast : PHILIPPINES TOT October 2014

MTM (%) 1.3 YTY (%) 26.6 YTD (%) 28.9 FY (%) 28.8 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 12,303 14,439 15,292 15,094 15,860 14,240 15,689 13,700 14,764 16,682 15,746 17,920 148,063 181,729

2014 15,642 16,828 19,173 18,094 19,598 19,622 20,730 19,116 20,924 21,117 21,117 22,052 190,844 234,013

2015 19,934 21,386 23,102 22,034 23,185 22,731 23,956 22,218 23,454 24,557 23,439 24,374 226,557 274,369

YTY (%) 27.1 16.5 25.4 19.9 23.6 37.8 32.1 39.5 41.7 26.6 34.1 23.1 28.9 28.8


Data source: CORAM,COMPI

234,013

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

10 2011

01 2012

04 2012

07 2012

10 2012

01 2013

04 2013

07 2013

10 2013

01 2014

04 2014

07 2014

10 2014

01 2015

04 2015

07 2015

10 2015

01 2016

04 2016

07 2016

27.1

16.5

25.4

19.923.6

37.8

32.1

39.541.7

26.6

34.1

23.1

28.9 28.8




Car Market Forecast : POLAND PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐16.6 YTY (%) 1.0 YTD (%) 13.2 FY (%) 11.6 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 26,246 24,109 25,366 24,015 22,548 25,203 24,835 19,067 21,467 26,369 24,092 26,238 263,317 289,555

2014 29,181 32,593 35,848 28,045 24,494 25,748 25,566 20,003 23,565 28,690 24,322 25,152 298,055 323,207

2015 24,015 23,769 27,595 24,260 23,962 26,298 25,867 21,949 24,407 27,110 25,016 25,524 274,248 299,772

YTY (%) 11.2 35.2 41.3 16.8 8.6 2.2 2.9 4.9 9.8 8.8 1.0 ‐4.1 13.2 11.6



323,207

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

11.2

35.2

41.3

16.8

8.6

2.2 2.9 4.99.8 8.8

1.0

‐4.1

13.2 11.6




Car Market Forecast : POLAND LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐10.6 YTY (%) ‐1.1 YTD (%) 11.6 FY (%) 9.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 3,646 2,769 3,208 3,339 3,056 3,637 3,161 2,861 3,336 4,379 3,966 4,682 37,358 42,040

2014 4,427 3,302 4,014 3,291 3,551 3,366 4,044 3,346 4,049 4,387 3,922 4,435 41,699 46,134

2015 3,252 3,315 3,979 3,663 3,573 3,823 3,470 3,139 3,588 4,073 4,201 4,442 40,075 44,517

YTY (%) 21.4 19.2 25.1 ‐1.4 16.2 ‐7.5 27.9 17.0 21.4 0.2 ‐1.1 ‐5.3 11.6 9.7



46,134

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

21.419.2

25.1

‐1.4

16.2

‐7.5

27.9

17.0

21.4

0.2

‐1.1

‐5.3

11.69.7




Car Market Forecast : PORTUGAL PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐1.0 YTY (%) 32.6 YTD (%) 34.5 FY (%) 35.6 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 7,021 7,517 9,624 8,042 10,093 12,735 10,843 6,141 7,369 9,092 8,810 8,634 97,287 105,921

2014 9,255 10,541 14,149 12,314 13,773 15,733 14,168 7,739 9,688 11,780 11,686 12,790 130,826 143,616

2015 11,830 11,590 15,297 12,482 14,480 16,273 15,255 9,143 9,972 11,266 11,615 12,790 139,203 151,993

YTY (%) 31.8 40.2 47.0 53.1 36.5 23.5 30.7 26.0 31.5 29.6 32.6 48.1 34.5 35.6


Data source: ACEA

143,616

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

31.8

40.2

47.0

53.1

36.5

23.5

30.726.0

31.5 29.632.6

48.1

34.5 35.6




Car Market Forecast : PORTUGAL LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 7.3 YTY (%) 32.2 YTD (%) 57.2 FY (%) 44.4 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 1,020 1,135 1,307 1,242 1,448 1,288 1,381 855 1,285 1,652 1,919 3,671 14,532 18,203

2014 1,646 1,997 2,443 2,057 2,066 2,050 2,201 1,486 1,946 2,416 2,536 3,448 22,844 26,292

2015 2,159 2,114 2,389 2,117 2,281 2,388 2,172 1,573 2,076 2,397 2,514 3,448 24,179 27,627

YTY (%) 61.4 75.9 86.9 65.6 42.7 59.2 59.4 73.8 51.4 46.2 32.2 ‐6.1 57.2 44.4


Data source: ACEA

26,292

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

61.4

75.9

86.9

65.6

42.7

59.2 59.4

73.8

51.446.2

32.2

‐6.1

57.2

44.4




Car Market Forecast : ROMANIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐29.9 YTY (%) 3.6 YTD (%) 18.5 FY (%) 13.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 4,436 3,473 3,324 5,242 4,107 3,967 5,714 6,319 6,829 5,594 5,474 6,666 54,479 61,145

2014 5,118 3,650 4,577 4,932 6,001 6,947 8,368 6,410 5,561 7,344 5,669 4,942 64,577 69,519

2015 3,005 3,250 5,074 5,862 6,010 5,904 5,863 4,619 5,005 5,865 5,123 4,222 55,581 59,804

YTY (%) 15.4 5.1 37.7 ‐5.9 46.1 75.1 46.4 1.4 ‐18.6 31.3 3.6 ‐25.9 18.5 13.7


Data source: ACEA

69,519

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

15.45.1

37.7

‐5.9

46.1

75.1

46.4

1.4

‐18.6

31.3

3.6

‐25.9

18.513.7




Car Market Forecast : RUSSIA TOT November 2014

MTM (%) 7.7 YTY (%) ‐1.1 YTD (%) ‐11.6 FY (%) ‐10.9 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is almost stable thanks to government incentives and anticipated purchase by customers


2013 162,077 210,666 244,030 245,334 229,670 241,346 234,569 231,915 246,895 234,481 231,982 264,257 2,512,965 2,777,222

2014 152,712 206,476 243,335 226,526 201,487 199,398 180,767 172,015 197,076 211,365 229,439 254,484 2,220,596 2,475,080

2015 154,261 202,002 251,540 277,722 265,324 276,908 271,926 266,350 285,847 286,774 277,021 305,095 2,815,675 3,120,771

YTY (%) ‐5.8 ‐2.0 ‐0.3 ‐7.7 ‐12.3 ‐17.4 ‐22.9 ‐25.8 ‐20.2 ‐9.9 ‐1.1 ‐3.7 ‐11.6 ‐10.9


Data source: CORAM,AEB

2,475,080

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐5.8

‐2.0‐0.3

‐7.7

‐12.3

‐17.4

‐22.9

‐25.8

‐20.2

‐9.9

‐1.1

‐3.7

‐11.6 ‐10.9




Car Market Forecast : SLOVAKIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐27.2 YTY (%) ‐3.2 YTD (%) 11.3 FY (%) 9.8 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 4,371 4,401 5,729 5,765 5,906 5,872 5,709 4,243 5,084 6,599 5,668 6,653 59,347 66,000

2014 5,455 5,385 6,015 5,986 6,260 6,891 6,656 5,249 5,367 7,282 5,484 6,465 66,030 72,495

2015 4,975 5,138 6,311 6,250 6,401 6,761 6,696 5,648 5,988 6,955 6,093 6,923 67,217 74,140

YTY (%) 24.8 22.4 5.0 3.8 6.0 17.4 16.6 23.7 5.6 10.4 ‐3.2 ‐2.8 11.3 9.8



72,495

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

24.822.4

5.0 3.86.0

17.4 16.6

23.7

5.6

10.4

‐3.2 ‐2.8

11.39.8




Car Market Forecast : SLOVAKIA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐11.7 YTY (%) 23.2 YTD (%) 16.9 FY (%) 19.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 351 315 381 399 460 526 478 376 428 513 396 453 4,623 5,076

2014 692 361 456 445 420 486 642 407 459 548 488 671 5,404 6,075

2015 453 416 442 477 485 524 488 421 442 541 533 681 5,221 5,902

YTY (%) 97.2 14.6 19.7 11.5 ‐8.7 ‐7.6 34.3 8.2 7.2 6.8 23.2 48.1 16.9 19.7



6,075

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

97.2

14.619.7

11.5

‐8.7 ‐7.6

34.3

8.2 7.2 6.8

23.2

48.1

16.9 19.7




Car Market Forecast : SLOVENIA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐19.9 YTY (%) 7.5 YTD (%) 3.2 FY (%) 4.6 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 4,383 3,807 4,578 4,702 4,846 5,845 4,229 3,373 4,070 4,600 3,926 2,669 48,359 51,028

2014 4,646 4,047 5,106 4,876 4,737 4,826 4,601 3,304 4,426 5,134 4,220 3,448 49,923 53,371

2015 4,957 4,789 5,732 5,592 5,414 5,659 5,033 3,826 4,353 4,722 4,289 3,448 54,365 57,813

YTY (%) 6.0 6.3 11.5 3.7 ‐2.2 ‐17.4 8.8 ‐2.0 8.7 11.6 7.5 29.2 3.2 4.6



53,371

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

6.0 6.3

11.5

3.7

‐2.2

‐17.4

8.8

‐2.0

8.711.6

7.5

29.2

3.2 4.6




Car Market Forecast : SLOVENIA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐2.5 YTY (%) ‐24.1 YTD (%) 13.1 FY (%) 11.3 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 510 397 505 595 480 508 511 468 556 599 722 483 5,851 6,334

2014 916 505 724 680 597 623 544 411 507 563 548 430 6,618 7,048

2015 643 352 536 538 483 524 483 403 489 543 560 429 5,553 5,983

YTY (%) 79.6 27.2 43.4 14.3 24.4 22.6 6.5 ‐12.2 ‐8.8 ‐6.0 ‐24.1 ‐11.0 13.1 11.3



7,048

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

79.6

27.2

43.4

14.324.4 22.6

6.5

‐12.2 ‐8.8 ‐6.0

‐24.1

‐11.0

13.1 11.3




Car Market Forecast : SWEDEN PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐9.2 YTY (%) 4.6 YTD (%) 13.8 FY (%) 12.9 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 15,721 17,860 22,493 24,175 25,782 22,869 18,161 21,616 24,388 25,332 24,779 26,423 243,176 269,599

2014 18,673 21,525 27,605 27,543 27,652 28,749 20,473 24,274 26,142 28,252 25,916 27,600 276,804 304,404

2015 20,271 22,547 28,893 28,989 29,461 28,524 19,604 21,246 25,350 28,056 26,642 27,618 279,583 307,200

YTY (%) 18.8 20.5 22.7 13.9 7.3 25.7 12.7 12.3 7.2 11.5 4.6 4.5 13.8 12.9


Data source: ACEA

304,404

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

18.820.5

22.7

13.9

7.3

25.7

12.7 12.3

7.2

11.5

4.6 4.5

13.8 12.9




Car Market Forecast : SWEDEN LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐7.0 YTY (%) 12.0 YTD (%) 13.3 FY (%) 13.3 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 2,588 2,828 3,395 3,247 3,183 3,092 2,093 3,121 3,467 3,309 3,184 3,884 33,507 37,391

2014 3,158 3,150 4,016 3,586 3,625 3,504 2,246 3,240 4,061 3,796 3,566 4,409 37,948 42,357

2015 2,686 3,100 3,800 3,746 3,809 3,715 2,419 3,199 3,633 3,591 3,771 4,409 37,469 41,878

YTY (%) 22.0 11.4 18.3 10.4 13.9 13.3 7.3 3.8 17.1 14.7 12.0 13.5 13.3 13.3


Data source: ACEA

42,357

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

22.0

11.4

18.3

10.4

13.9 13.3

7.3

3.8

17.114.7

12.013.5 13.3 13.3




Car Market Forecast : THAILAND TOT October 2014

MTM (%) 1.8 YTY (%) ‐20.4 YTD (%) ‐36.0 FY (%) ‐34.5 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is in sharp decline after 2 years of booming. Perspective for 2014 is not good and future uncertain

Main Event : May 2014 : Military takeover


2013 125,817 129,910 157,529 109,673 111,848 106,018 98,258 100,248 94,845 88,989 93,393 93,988 1,123,135 1,310,516

2014 68,508 71,680 83,983 73,260 69,681 73,799 69,527 68,835 69,137 70,850 69,937 69,260 719,260 858,457

2015 48,643 56,266 77,038 57,911 58,807 60,715 58,533 57,983 55,477 54,492 54,284 53,606 585,866 693,756

YTY (%) ‐45.5 ‐44.8 ‐46.7 ‐33.2 ‐37.7 ‐30.4 ‐29.2 ‐31.3 ‐27.1 ‐20.4 ‐25.1 ‐26.3 ‐36.0 ‐34.5


Data source: TAIA

858,457

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

10 2011

01 2012

04 2012

07 2012

10 2012

01 2013

04 2013

07 2013

10 2013

01 2014

04 2014

07 2014

10 2014

01 2015

04 2015

07 2015

10 2015

01 2016

04 2016

07 2016

‐45.5 ‐44.8‐46.7

‐33.2

‐37.7

‐30.4 ‐29.2‐31.3

‐27.1

‐20.4

‐25.1 ‐26.3

‐36.0 ‐34.5




Car Market Forecast : TURKEY PC November 2014

MTM (%) 18.9 YTY (%) ‐6.9 YTD (%) ‐15.3 FY (%) ‐13.8 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is back in recession in November


2013 25,835 36,814 51,785 56,999 62,383 58,290 55,712 51,611 52,925 46,985 64,117 101,199 563,456 664,655

2014 24,368 27,167 37,812 42,769 46,379 47,278 46,602 45,131 49,262 50,814 59,695 95,548 477,277 572,825

2015 27,439 34,524 61,080 58,846 64,042 59,292 51,335 49,053 58,270 49,929 55,378 95,548 569,188 664,736

YTY (%) ‐5.7 ‐26.2 ‐27.0 ‐25.0 ‐25.7 ‐18.9 ‐16.4 ‐12.6 ‐6.9 8.1 ‐6.9 ‐5.6 ‐15.3 ‐13.8


Data source: CORAM,OSD

572,825

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐5.7

‐26.2 ‐27.0‐25.0 ‐25.7

‐18.9‐16.4

‐12.6

‐6.9

8.1

‐6.9‐5.6

‐15.3‐13.8




Car Market Forecast : TURKEY LCV November 2014

MTM (%) 38.5 YTY (%) 10.7 YTD (%) ‐20.5 FY (%) ‐18.3 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is now well orientated


2013 11,305 14,117 20,903 20,016 23,038 19,481 19,014 15,772 18,112 13,414 18,900 34,397 194,072 228,469

2014 9,970 10,352 12,969 13,977 11,742 12,885 13,305 15,068 17,269 15,759 20,926 32,401 154,222 186,623

2015 9,965 12,724 18,895 18,642 20,183 18,811 16,914 17,640 20,653 16,992 18,752 32,401 190,170 222,571

YTY (%) ‐11.8 ‐26.7 ‐38.0 ‐30.2 ‐49.0 ‐33.9 ‐30.0 ‐4.5 ‐4.7 17.5 10.7 ‐5.8 ‐20.5 ‐18.3


Data source: CORAM,OSD

186,623

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐11.8

‐26.7

‐38.0‐30.2

‐49.0

‐33.9‐30.0

‐4.5 ‐4.7

17.510.7

‐5.8

‐20.5 ‐18.3




Car Market Forecast : UKRAINE PC November 2014

MTM (%) 5.7 YTY (%) ‐56.0 YTD (%) ‐54.5 FY (%) ‐54.4 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is heavily affected by internationnal events


2013 11,989 13,591 22,565 26,115 15,091 14,887 17,984 22,195 20,333 16,081 15,444 17,047 196,275 213,322

2014 11,874 15,204 10,938 7,765 5,686 6,221 6,818 6,402 5,788 5,891 6,802 7,839 89,389 97,228

2015 4,956 5,098 7,432 7,085 5,493 5,790 6,418 6,638 6,711 6,553 6,872 7,917 69,045 76,962

YTY (%) ‐1.0 11.9 ‐51.5 ‐70.3 ‐62.3 ‐58.2 ‐62.1 ‐71.2 ‐71.5 ‐63.4 ‐56.0 ‐54.0 ‐54.5 ‐54.4


Data source: CORAM,AUTOPROM

97,228

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐1.0

11.9

‐51.5

‐70.3‐62.3

‐58.2‐62.1

‐71.2 ‐71.5‐63.4

‐56.0 ‐54.0 ‐54.5 ‐54.4




Car Market Forecast : UKRAINE CV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐8.9 YTY (%) ‐63.1 YTD (%) ‐56.3 FY (%) ‐56.3 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is heavily affected by internationnal events


2013 1,114 1,254 1,614 1,670 1,314 1,630 1,784 2,050 2,045 1,702 1,557 1,838 17,734 19,572

2014 984 1,150 792 519 489 592 715 633 582 726 575 799 7,757 8,556

2015 50 438 626 556 432 451 476 418 377 367 239 466 4,431 4,896

YTY (%) ‐11.7 ‐8.3 ‐50.9 ‐68.9 ‐62.8 ‐63.7 ‐59.9 ‐69.1 ‐71.5 ‐57.3 ‐63.1 ‐56.5 ‐56.3 ‐56.3


Data source: CORAM,AUTOPROM

8,556

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐11.7‐8.3

‐50.9

‐68.9‐62.8 ‐63.7

‐59.9

‐69.1 ‐71.5

‐57.3‐63.1

‐56.5 ‐56.3 ‐56.3




Car Market Forecast : USA CARS November 2014

MTM (%) ‐0.1 YTY (%) ‐0.8 YTD (%) 0.9 FY (%) 1.0 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is stable at a pre‐crisis level


2013 523,200 601,100 739,200 638,900 708,000 689,300 639,600 733,400 553,300 563,600 581,300 613,800 6,970,900 7,584,700

2014 476,600 563,800 740,800 657,200 773,600 684,100 670,500 747,900 562,500 577,500 576,742 627,205 7,031,242 7,658,447

2015 520,148 594,106 730,232 670,268 742,734 692,031 669,850 718,460 602,523 594,440 575,761 635,749 7,110,553 7,746,302

YTY (%) ‐8.9 ‐6.2 0.2 2.9 9.3 ‐0.8 4.8 2.0 1.7 2.5 ‐0.8 2.2 0.9 1.0


Data source: BEA

7,658,447

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐8.9

‐6.2

0.2

2.9

9.3

‐0.8

4.8

2.0 1.7 2.5

‐0.8

2.20.9 1.0




Car Market Forecast : USA LT November 2014

MTM (%) 3.4 YTY (%) 9.2 YTD (%) 9.7 FY (%) 9.4 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is increasing since February 2009


2013 517,200 588,800 710,600 642,500 730,600 709,100 669,800 764,300 580,400 636,800 656,700 739,400 7,206,800 7,946,200

2014 530,900 624,100 790,400 723,900 827,700 730,800 758,200 830,900 676,400 695,600 717,135 787,447 7,906,035 8,693,482

2015 643,880 705,747 816,422 770,271 859,306 788,654 797,390 846,782 742,333 763,464 772,296 815,498 8,506,544 9,322,042

YTY (%) 2.6 6.0 11.2 12.7 13.3 3.1 13.2 8.7 16.5 9.2 9.2 6.5 9.7 9.4


Data source: BEA

8,693,482

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

2.6

6.0

11.212.7 13.3

3.1

13.2

8.7

16.5

9.2 9.2

6.5

9.7 9.4




Car Market Forecast : VIETNAM TOT October 2014

MTM (%) 4.5 YTY (%) 52.8 YTD (%) 36.5 FY (%) 35.7 FY 2014 =

Comment :


2013 7,363 3,679 7,650 8,002 8,202 8,239 8,209 7,236 8,466 8,720 10,148 11,631 75,766 97,545

2014 8,939 5,908 9,313 10,116 9,849 10,853 11,173 10,991 12,940 13,324 14,049 14,953 103,406 132,408

2015 13,498 11,893 13,795 14,280 14,175 14,768 14,986 14,930 16,039 16,293 16,733 17,270 144,658 178,660

YTY (%) 21.4 60.6 21.7 26.4 20.1 31.7 36.1 51.9 52.8 52.8 38.4 28.6 36.5 35.7


Data source: CORAM,VAMA

132,408

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

10 2011

01 2012

04 2012

07 2012

10 2012

01 2013

04 2013

07 2013

10 2013

01 2014

04 2014

07 2014

10 2014

01 2015

04 2015

07 2015

10 2015

01 2016

04 2016

07 2016

21.4

60.6

21.726.4

20.1

31.736.1

51.9 52.8 52.8

38.4

28.6

36.5 35.7




Car Market Forecast : SOUTH AFRICA PC November 2014

MTM (%) ‐18.4 YTY (%) ‐2.9 YTD (%) ‐3.4 FY (%) ‐3.3 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market is now stable since September

Main Event : Jan‐May : Strike of miners


2013 40,865 36,390 37,612 34,496 37,191 37,372 40,272 38,892 39,941 40,088 34,267 32,883 417,386 450,269

2014 38,008 34,414 36,798 30,848 32,984 35,355 39,945 37,953 42,918 40,666 33,278 32,224 403,167 435,391

2015 38,460 36,750 38,502 31,108 34,254 35,816 38,517 39,380 40,394 40,117 35,333 32,503 408,630 441,133

YTY (%) ‐7.0 ‐5.4 ‐2.2 ‐10.6 ‐11.3 ‐5.4 ‐0.8 ‐2.4 7.5 1.4 ‐2.9 ‐2.0 ‐3.4 ‐3.3


Data source: CORAM,NAAMSA

435,391

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐7.0‐5.4

‐2.2

‐10.6 ‐11.3

‐5.4

‐0.8‐2.4

7.5

1.4

‐2.9‐2.0

‐3.4 ‐3.3




Car Market Forecast : SOUTH AFRICA LCV November 2014

MTM (%) ‐5.3 YTY (%) 9.9 YTD (%) 3.9 FY (%) 4.5 FY 2014 =

Comment : The market confirms its positive trend


2013 14,067 14,752 15,289 14,458 14,618 13,935 15,071 14,376 12,358 14,137 13,719 11,420 156,780 168,200

2014 13,145 14,879 15,848 12,796 13,866 14,405 15,081 16,716 15,179 15,827 15,076 12,897 162,818 175,715

2015 14,397 16,024 17,118 14,291 15,169 15,364 16,084 16,751 15,499 16,358 16,119 13,948 173,174 187,123

YTY (%) ‐6.6 0.9 3.7 ‐11.5 ‐5.1 3.4 0.1 16.3 22.8 12.0 9.9 12.9 3.9 4.5


Data source: CORAM,NAAMSA

175,715

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

11 2011

02 2012

05 2012

08 2012

11 2012

02 2013

05 2013

08 2013

11 2013

02 2014

05 2014

08 2014

11 2014

02 2015

05 2015

08 2015

11 2015

02 2016

05 2016

08 2016

‐6.6

0.93.7

‐11.5

‐5.1

3.40.1

16.3

22.8

12.09.9

12.9

3.9 4.5



€¦ · The Car Market analysis Monthly Forecast Car Market Forecast : WORLD PC November 2014...

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