The Business of Clean AirPresented to

North Texas CommissionTopic North Texas

Information with Purpose

Howard L. GilbergGuida, Slavich & Flores, P.C.

Gilberg@gsfpc.com214-692-0009

TheThe Environmental Law Firm SM

August 24, 2016

WHY “THE BUSINESS” OF CLEAN AIR?

• Clean Air: An Important Component of Economic Development

• Clean Air: Synonymous With a Good Quality Quality of Life

• Clean Air Permit: The Functional Equivalent of Real Estate’s Construction Permit and Certificate of Occupancy - You Can’t Move Forward Without One

2

“THE BUSINESS” OF CLEAN AIR?

Direct Economic Impacts• Capital Purchases of Air Pollution Control Equipment• Increased Job Opportunities

– Private Sector Engineers, Scientists, Attorneys, and Equipment Operators

– Government Regulators and NGO’s

• Increased Tax Base – Property Tax Exemption Program

• Indirect Economic Impact: Greater than Direct

3

4

2015 DFW OZONE DESIGN VALUES

^Not a full year of data, current as of 7/31/2016Source: TCEQ, http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi-bin/compliance/monops/8hr_monthly.pl ppb = parts per billion

Exceedance Level indicates daily maximum eight-hour average ozone concentration.Exceedance Levels are based on Air Quality Index (AQI) thresholds established by the EPA for the for the revised ozone standard of 70 ppb.

= Additional level orange exceedance days under the revised standard that were not exceedances under the previous 75 ppb standard. (AQI level orange = 71-75 ppb)

Eight-Hour Ozone Exceedance Days Based on <70 ppbDFW EXCEEDANCES OF FEDERAL OZONE STANDARDS

Eight-Hour Ozone Days

5

Exceedance Levels

HOW DID WE GET HERE?HIGHLIGHTS OF HISTORICAL

U.S. AIR POLLUTION STANDARDS

1977 National Ambient Air Quality StandardsCounty-by-County Compliance For Six Ubiquitous Air Pollutants

– Carbon Monoxide– Sulfur Dioxide– Nitrogen Oxides– Volatile Organic Compounds– Particulate Matter (dust)– Lead• Ozone Precursors: NOx and VOC• Why County-by-County?

6

HOW DID WE GET HERE?(cont.)

• National Policy Goal: A Balance – Public “Health” Effects Against – Impairment of Economic Development/Business Creation– Focus on Urban Areas With the Worst Visible (PM) Emissions – Incentivize Business Development in Rural Areas– Focus Resources on Major Air Pollution Sources

7

HOW DID WE GET HERE?(cont.)

1990’s Regulation of Hazardous Air Pollutant Emissions by Industry Sector

– Role of Emerging Scientific Health-Based Data– County-by-County Discarded – Continuing Balance for Small Business – 40 Sectors Including Oil Refining, Petrochemicals and

Coal-Powered Electrical Generation 2010’s Regulation of Greenhouse Gases Emerging

(Carbon Dioxide and its Depletion-Equivalents) – Focus On Largest Emitters, For Example, Coal-Powered

Electrical Generation– Continuing Balance for Small Business

8

TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITYROLE IN AIR POLLUTION CONTROL

• Third Largest Environmental Agency, by Job Count, in the United States

• Funded by Federal Dollars with Federal Oversight, and State Budget

• Air Permit Development and Issuance After Public Input

• Bases for Permitting:– Applicable Portions of Three Federal Programs– Added State Requirements– Very Specific Balancing of Health Effects Without Unduly

Impairing Small Business Creation• Legal Enforcement

9

FEDERAL OZONE STANDARDS AND COMPLIANCE DATES

• Issued 1997 - 85 parts per billion (Revoked)• Issued 2008 - 75 parts per billion (2015 Compliance

Date)• Issued 2016 - 70 parts per billion (2023-24 Estimated

Compliance Date)

• Design Values vs. Actual Measurements • NOx Emissions Are the Compliance Driver

10

11

STATE OF AIR QUALITY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

Estimated 2017 Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) Emissions InventorySource Category Estimates = 296.77 tons per day (tpd)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Consecutive Three-Year Periods

Source: NCTCOG TR Dept

De

sig

n V

alu

e (

pp

b)1

1Attainment Goal - According to the US EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standards, attainment is reached when, at each monitor, the Design Value (three-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum eight-hour average ozone concentration) is equal to or less than 70 parts per billion (ppb).

^Not a full year of data, current as of 7/31/2016

2015 Revised Standard ≤ 70 ppb (TBD; Moderate by 2024)

2008 Standard ≤ 75 ppb1 (by 2017)

DFW Design Values vs. Ozone Standards Eight-Hour Ozone Historical Trends

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1997 Standard < 85 ppb (Revoked)

12

13

2015 DFW OZONE DESIGN VALUES

^Not a full year of data, current as of 7/31/2016Source: TCEQ, http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi-bin/compliance/monops/8hr_monthly.pl ppb = parts per billion

Exceedance Level indicates daily maximum eight-hour average ozone concentration.Exceedance Levels are based on Air Quality Index (AQI) thresholds established by the EPA for the for the revised ozone standard of 70 ppb.

= Additional level orange exceedance days under the revised standard that were not exceedances under the previous 75 ppb standard. (AQI level orange = 71-75 ppb)

Eight-Hour Ozone Exceedance Days Based on <70 ppbDFW EXCEEDANCES OF FEDERAL OZONE STANDARDS

Eight-Hour Ozone Days

14

Exceedance Levels

AN EXPLANATION OF DFW’S IMPROVING OZONE PICTURE

15

• DFW Large Businesses: Major Mandated and Voluntary Emission Reductions Since 1977

– Few New Large Sources Have Located in the DFW Area– Theoretical Elimination Would Not Achieve Compliance• DFW Small Businesses: Gradual Reduction in Ozone

Precursor Emissions and Continued Business Growth• DFW Traffic: Tremendous Growth - One Million New

Residents Per Decade Since 1970’s

16

Year Daily VMT1990 100,075,926 1991 96,986,040 1992 99,826,804 1993 101,388,741 1994 119,741,532 1995 121,709,263 1996 124,474,818 1997 129,096,784 1998 134,287,641 1999 141,150,888 2000 145,112,201 2001 134,558,167 2002 136,892,126 2003 138,934,069 2004 149,149,055 2005 157,239,604 2006 153,351,939 2007 155,946,421 2008 154,600,473 2009 157,218,301 2010 153,741,670 2011 156,626,172 2012 157,534,138 2013 157,696,524 2014 166,086,361 2015 171,422,347

Dallas-Fort Worth Ten-County Nonattainment Area

Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)1990-2015

100,000,000

110,000,000

120,000,000

130,000,000

140,000,000

150,000,000

160,000,000

170,000,000

180,000,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Dallas-Fort Worth Ten-County Nonattainment Area Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled

1998 - 2015

Source: Texas Department of Transportation

INCREASING VMT: A MAJOR IMPACT ON DFW OZONE COMPLIANCE

17

STATE OF AIR QUALITY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXASEstimated 2017 Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) On-Road Emissions Inventory

Source Category Estimates = 130.77 tons per day (tpd)

CONCLUSIONS AND PROGNOSIS

• If Compliance is to be Achieved, Mobile Sources Are Key– Federal C.A.F.E. (Mileage Standards) – Electric and Hybrid Options• DFW’s Large Businesses: Low Incremental Value of

Further Regulation• DFW Small Businesses: Expanded Ozone Regulation

Would be a Major Public Policy Shift and Impact Their Business Creation and Jobs Impact

– Unclear Ozone Reduction Benefits Under Traditional Balance• Large Businesses Outside DFW Area: 1970’s-Era

Incentives are Integral – Is This an Real Issue? – Would Take a Major Public Policy Shift

18

19

Webinar Participant Questions??