The building sector meets climate change and resource ... · PDF fileThe building sector meets...

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The building sector meets

climate change and resource depletion

Nils Larsson

Executive Director, iiSBE,

the International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment

May 2010

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Many claim that the building sector is responsible for about 35% to 40% of global greenhouse gases;

This may, in fact, be overstating things somewhat, since the proportion varies according to region;

In Malaysia, for example, it is estimated that the building sector accounts for 18% of total GHG;

On the other hand, the link to commuting transport is often ignored;

In summary, the building sector is a big part of the problem, and should be treated as a priority target;

Water conservation is of critical importance in areas such as Spain, the Middle East and southwest USA;

And we have diminishing supplies of oil and some key materials, which continue to drive up prices and will cause supply problems in the long run;

Because of the probable climate change effects on buildings that we all live or work in, adaptation strategies are also of great importance;

Tackling the issues in the building sector

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WWF footprinting…

Although we have increased efficiency, consumption levels have wiped out the gains, and more;

The carbon footprint has steadily increased over the last 50 years;

We now exceed the earth’s ecological carrying capacity

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The A1B global temperature projection by

region and for two decades in this century

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

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Consumption of a range of industrial materials in Western

Europe and USA is much more than in the rest of the world:

what happens when India and China join the party?

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Reduced

availability and

higher cost of

fuels and

materials

Retrofit to adapt buildings

and relocation to meet

climate change conditions

Demand for higher

service levels in

developing and

developed countries

New

construction

related to

needs of

climate

refugees

Housing and service demand to

meet current deficits and future

urban growth in developing countries

The

Construction

Sector

Construction work

required to replace

ageing infrastructure

Issues at

mid-century

Water scarcity

and/or drought

in some areas

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What kind of policy instruments are cost-effective?

Source: Report by Central European University for UNEP-SBCI, 2007

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Source: Adapted from University of Copenhagen Synthesis Report, March 2009, pg. 29, and from original McKinsey Quarterly

2007 #1

Global cost curve for GHG abatement measures beyond business as

usual, for measures estimated to cost less than 40 Euros per ton in

2030

Marginal costs Marginal annual costs higher than BAU

Annual abatement costs in Euros per ton, for global

measures costing less than 40 Euro/tCO2-eq in 2030,

calculated as the annual additional operating cost

(including depreciation) less potential operating cost

savings, divided by the amount of emissions avoided…

costs can be negative if costs savings are

considerable.

Total annual

reduction 27 Gt

CO2-eq

lower than BAU

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Some good news: economic mitigation potentials by sector

as a function of carbon price in 2030 estimated from

bottom-up studies.

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In addressing the GHG problem, we must remember that,

although new buildings tend to attract most attention, existing

buildings represent from 96% to 98% of the total stock;

Performance improvements to existing buildings must

therefore be a priority.

New build and existing buildings

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Total building stock

Existing buildings

New buildings

Certified buildings

Approximate proportions

in the building stock

But new construction has

influence over the mid-term

(Canadian rates of demolition and construction).

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Whether new or existing construction, it is advisable to use

neighborhoods as units of analysis and action, because of the

increasing scale of projects, the possibilities of inter-building

systems optimisation and the increasing use of district energy

systems.

Buildings and neighborhoods

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Ensure that GHG performance requirements for new buildings are tough enough to make investors think twice about new construction;

Require labelling to show core performance indicators, such as energy, emissions and water;

Establish regulations and incentives to encourage high-density and mixed-use development in areas served by public transport;

Undertake re-development triage programs in existing urban areas.

Minimize taxes on new infill buildings and on renovation projects, except for second homes;

In N.A. and Asia, launch demonstration programs to make high-density areas attractive to families;

Launch major training programs to increase the pool of skilled renovators;

Things we must do…. a sample

Establish carbon taxes, in a way that does not hurt the poor;

Revise the metric of success; e.g. we need a green GDP.

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A digression

Decades ago, the economist Milton Friedman pointed out that…. Only a

crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs,

the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around;

Historically, WW2 and 9/11 are examples of major events that caused

sudden and major changes in values, regulations and behaviour;

To conserve steel, glass, and rubber for war industries, the government

halted production of cars in December 1941. A month later, production of

vacuum cleaners, refrigerators, radios, sewing machines, and phonographs

ceased. Altogether, production of nearly 300 items deemed nonessential to

the war effort was banned or curtailed, including coat hangers, beer cans,

and toothpaste tubes*.

The budget deficit required to meet these needs was not allowed to impede

implementation;

The general effects of crises

* www.digitalhistory.uh.edu

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www.ameshistoricalsociety.org

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Problems result if one waits to react to a crisis instead of anticipating

it, because the confusion and panic caused by disasters are not the

best conditions for logical and effective action;

U.S. Government actions in the wake of the 9/11 attacks in New

York, or to Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, will long remain

examples of hasty and poor policy making.

The initial response to the current global economic meltdown is a

more recent example of ad-hoc reactions;

Paul Krugman put it this way in 2008: The financial system has

been under severe stress for more than a year, and there should

have been careful thought-out contingency plans ready to roll out in

case the markets melted down. Obviously there weren’t…

General reactions to crises

Paul Krugman column, International Herald Tribune, pg. 5, 4-5 October, 2008.

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Some large private firms have learned to take advantage of

confusion and panic to impose values of privatization that create

windfall profits for firms involved in disaster management,

rebuilding efforts or new development;

Such an approach may result in a very costly solution;

It may also exacerbate income differentials and places the poor in

positions that sometimes involve a great deal of suffering;

For example, the responses to the Tsunami of late 2004 led the

Sri Lankan government to develop a reconstruction plan that

prevented low-income fishermen from re-settling in their previous

land holdings on the coast, while supporting the efforts of private

investors to build new luxury hotels in the same area *.

General reactions to crises

* Naomi Klein, The Shock Doctrine

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The implications of the current

gradual approach to mitigation

Key industry and government leaders don’t want to face the facts and

have hesitated too long about implementing adequate long-term

mitigation measures;

Measures that are implemented tend to be of the no-regrets and

painless variety, but these are not sufficient to make the rapid

reductions that are needed;

Considering the long lag times in the climate system, it therefore

seems that GHG reductions will not come rapidly enough to avoid

severe climate change impacts;

We therefore face a possibility of global temperature increases of

considerably more than the target 2 ºC;

This would lead to massive long-term disruption of agriculture,

industry, living and working conditions, as outlined by IPCC and

others.

Deferred action on climate change

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Flooding in UK, 2007

Precipitation and wind

Credit: The First Post,

16/09/07

Credit: CBC

Although most of the impacts of climate change outlined by IPCC will

be long-term, we should not be surprised by the first harbingers of

serious climate change arriving in the form of discrete major weather

events such as cyclones, other wind storms, extreme precipitation,

associated flooding, droughts or a combination of these;

The only consolation would be that, if a series such events would occur

close to regions of wealth and power, e.g. in Washington, Houston,

New York, London, Hong Kong or Singapore, they will focus attention

on climate change in a way that logic and scientific proof never could;

… and the consequences

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If a series of major events does occur within the next decade, the

case for climate change as the main driver might finally be accepted;

Based on historical catastrophic events of other types, we can

assume that the shock effect of billions in damage and thousands of

deaths would open the minds of the public and elites to radical

measures, not only for reconstruction, but also for a deep and rapid

reduction in emissions;

But such openness will last only for a few weeks, and desperate

leaders will grab whatever plans are available;

The result would be hasty, ad-hoc and poorly considered action;

The likely scenario

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Governments might be led to announce that, in addition to urgent re-

building efforts, national emissions must be reduced by large amounts

over a very short period (say 80% by 2025 instead of 2050), along with

promises of massive fines if targets are not met;

Reaching such performance requirements would be very difficult,

because strategies for such a rapid and deep reductions would have

to be invented on the fly;

We can foresee that it might be achievable in, for example, in the

automotive, or the consumer goods sectors, but it will be much harder

to do so in the building sector;

The building industry is very large and complex, with a few large

players and very many small ones on the production side, and with

control even more dispersed on the demand side;

Likely reactions

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And buildings are almost all unique, so global approaches need

local modifications.

Undoubtedly, there will be some immediate proposals for sweeping

measures but all will be hastily prepared and some of them will

have side effects of excess profits and social dislocation;

But if they are the only plans on the table they will be accepted,

because, in the panic, nobody will have the time or the will to

develop well-considered plans;

So, what might be the effects in the building sector in such a

disorderly situation?

… likely reactions

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First, we would expect a surge in demand for man and materials to

carry out urgent repair, re-building and re-location needs;

This would, within weeks, deplete the supply of skilled and firms in

the region;

Manufacturers of building materials would be faced with urgent

production requests, but would face greatly increased power costs,

and might also have to cope with a disrupted labor force and plant

conditions;

Prices for materials and services of this type would therefore reach

astronomical levels;

Owners or managers of existing commercial buildings would have to

reduce operating hours to meet GHG reduction targets;

Residential tenants will face mandatory energy cuts;

The value of buildings with poor energy efficiency will plummet;

Likely effects of hasty reaction

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Suburban building land values will also face massive drops because of

controls on new building and stringent limits on private vehicle

emissions, which will bring new construction in outer suburbs to a halt.

And, by the way, many standards for good design and operations,

such as adequate lighting levels, indoor comfort conditions, and work

to preserve heritage buildings will fall by the wayside, at least

temporarily (say for 20 years);

Social tensions will rise to very high levels when those who want to

pursue their normal paths (commercial building development, building

your dream home) are faced with permit refusals, while climate

refugees and families suffering from energy poverty are given priority;

And the need to deal with repair and remedial work will lead

governments to say that they cannot afford more GHG mitigation

measures;

So climate change will continue unabated.

Likely effects

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An alternative scenario:

specific contingency plans

prepared now, ready for

implementation when needed

Our assumption is that pressures for immediate action will be very

great in the aftermath of major weather events, if developed countries

are affected;

To be available when the time comes, such plans must be voluntarily

developed now by a variety of public- and private-sector

organisations, so they will be ready when needed;

In this scenario, we imagine that a large number of contingency plans

have been prepared by individual governments and private-sector

organizations, and that these cover most key sectors of the emission-

producing economy;

Such plans must support very rapid reductions in GHG emissions

over a short time-frame – something like 75% over 5 years – but

varying with the sector and specific cases;

Contingency planning scenario

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It will be most logical and realistic to have action plans developed by

organisations for assets or services that are under their own control;

e.g. the owner of a large portfolio of office or residential buildings

would develop a strategy to suit those buildings;

Some of these plans will have to remain confidential, because they

will require restrictions on the actions of individuals that are totally

unacceptable today;

But they must be developed now because, when the crisis comes,

very rapid action will be called for and there will be no time for

thoughtful planning;

Here are a few and diverse examples of the kind of rapid reduction

plans that might be useful in a contingency plan scenario:

Contingency planning scenario

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1. Immediately introduce carbon taxes, to reduce the production of carbon-

intensive building-sector related goods and to reduce the availability of

carbon-intensive services; and simultaneously reduce existing income

taxes;

2. Immediately ban the construction of new coal-fired generation power

plants and the extension of existing ones, unless significant GHG

sequestration is provided;

3. Develop strategies for minimizing speculative price rises for construction

materials;

4. Develop alternatives for power outages and other service interruptions

(water, food and other supplies, communications etc.);

5. Ensure that facilities of critical importance, such as hospitals, public

transportation systems, water and sewage treatment and pumping

systems, remain provided with electrical power, heat, water and other

vital services.

Specific proposals for contingency plans, 1 to 5

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6. Prepare risk assessment studies of existing urban areas and building

stock with regard to possible climate change impact events, such as

floods, wind storms, heat waves etc.. Such work is a necessity for post-

disaster recovery.

7. Make realistic plans for rapid relocation of key facilities such as docks

and airports, and of large populations in areas vulnerable to flooding or

fire;

8. In areas with housing shortages, rapidly identify empty dwellings (mainly

non-primary homes), and measures to ensure that they are more fully

utilized;

9. Develop measures to prevent the proliferation of secure and gated

communities as a disaster response, unless these are socially balanced;

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10. Impose a freeze on

new construction in

un-serviced or low-

density areas or

potential flood

areas, and impose

a zero operating

GHG emissions

requirement for

new construction

that is permitted;

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Specific proposals for contingency plans, 10

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11. Introduce an immediate triage program for

urban areas, to determine zones that will be

targeted for performance upgrades or, if the

potential is limited, targeted for dismantling

and replaced by high-performance re-

development;

Specific

proposals for

contingency

plans, 11

12. Establish programs for the rapid conversion of surplus office buildings to

residential uses;

13. In areas designated for performance upgrading, implement an

immediate program of urban infill to increase densities and renovation of

existing buildings to greatly reduce GHG emissions (by at least 75%)

and to improve water performance where relevant;

14. Develop strategies to rapidly implement passive survivability including

food security; support the transition of large urban and suburban milieux

localized, small urban areas and communities that have a greater

degree of self-reliance;

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15. Establish crash training programs for regulators, renovation

contractors, simulation specialists and others needed to upgrade

performance in new and existing buildings;

16. Rapidly implement public education programs to promote conservation

in energy, water and materials, for office tenants and residential

owners or tenants;

17. Prohibit the sale of appliances and equipment that do not meet certain

operating efficiency criteria (e.g. "A" label in Europe), and a establish a

program for rapidly scaling up of efficiencies;

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18. Establish strictly enforced limits on set points for heating or cooling of

buildings and accelerate the substitution of incandescent lighting by

fluorescent types.

19. Reduce peak loads in electrical networks, through major financial

penalties, staggered office hours and, in some cases, the curtailment of

certain industrial processes;

20. Rapidly implement measures to facilitate feed-in tariff policies from

decentralized renewable power sources;

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Some governments, especially in Europe, have launched ambitious

plans to reduce GHGs, but it is not yet clear whether their voters will

agree with the changes in lifestyle that will be necessary to meet

these targets;

Excessive consumption will not easily be reduced, and is likely to lead

us into global temperature increases that will be considerably greater

than the desired target of 2 deg.C;

It is not unreasonable to assume that it will require one or more

climate-induced disasters of major proportions to shock governments

and their populations into real action, especially in North America;

When that happens, there will be an immediate demand for

contingency plans to reduce GHGs in a very rapid way and to

implement urgent measures for climate change adaptation;

We must develop such plans now and keep them ready.

Conclusions

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Let us take the steps needed to ensure a happy ending

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