The Building Blocks of GDP Final - Census.gov Building Blocks of Gross Domestic Product March 30,...
Transcript of The Building Blocks of GDP Final - Census.gov Building Blocks of Gross Domestic Product March 30,...
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The Building Blocks of Gross Domestic ProductMarch 30, 2016
John SperrySurvey StatisticianU.S. Census BureauEconomic Indicators Division
Audio Dial In Number: 1‐800‐857‐4842Passcode: 5407417
Marissa CrawfordEconomist
Bureau of Economic AnalysisNational Economic Accounts
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John Sperry is a Survey Statistician with the International Trade Macro Analysis Branch. Since joining the Census Bureau in 2012, John has worked in wholesale and international trade indicator offices. He is currently working on multiple international trade projects, and enjoys teaching data users how to access trade data.
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Marissa Crawford is an Economist at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. She has a Bachelor in Science degree in Economics from Oklahoma State University and an MBA from Georgetown University. Marissa works in the Coordination and Quality Assurance Branch in BEA’s National Economic Accounts directorate where she is part of the team that reviews and prepares the release of gross domestic product, personal income and outlays, and corporate profits.
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Webinar Overview
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• Introduction• Review BEA & Its Data Products• Define Gross Domestic Product (GDP)• How is Production Measured?• Evolution of GDP Estimates• How does Census Data Fit?• Live Question & Answer Session
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What is the Mission of the Bureau of Economic Analysis?To promote a better understanding of the U.S.
economy by providing the most timely, relevant, and accurate economic data in an
objective and cost‐effective manner.
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For more information & data offerings visit:
BEA.GOV
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Balancing Three Principles of Mission
RelevantAccurate
Timely
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• Length of time before estimates become available
• Ability of the data to answer the questions being asked about the economy
• How close the estimates come to measuring the concepts they are designed to measure
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BEA’s Data ProductsNational Industry Regional International
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BEA’s Data ProductsNational
Total U.S. GDP
Personal income
Corporate profits
Industry Regional International
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BEA’s Data ProductsNational
Total U.S. GDP
Personal income
Corporate profits
Industry
GDP by Industry
Input‐output accounts
Travel and tourism accounts
Regional International
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BEA’s Data ProductsNational
Total U.S. GDP
Personal income
Corporate profits
Industry
GDP by Industry
Input‐output accounts
Travel and tourism accounts
Regional
GDP by State
State personal income
GDP by Metro Area
International
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BEA’s Data ProductsNational
Total U.S. GDP
Personal income
Corporate profits
Industry
GDP by Industry
Input‐output accounts
Travel and tourism accounts
Regional
GDP by State
State personal income
GDP by Metro Area
International
Trade in goods and services
International transactions
International investment
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BEA’s Data ProductsNational
Total U.S. GDP
Personal income
Corporate profits
Industry
GDP by Industry
Input‐output accounts
Travel and tourism accounts
Regional
GDP by State
State personal income
GDP by Metro Area
International
Trade in goods and services
International transactions accounts
International investment
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How are BEA data used?
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Businesses Wall Street Academics Policy Makers
White House Congress Federal Reserve Board
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How are BEA data used?
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Billion
s of d
ollars
A one percent lower real GDP growth rate leads to a total increase in the federal budget deficit of $3,157 billion from 2016‐2026.
Source: Analytical Perspectives, Office of Management and Budget, Table 2‐4.
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What is Gross Domestic Product?
Value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. Two measures: Nominal, or current‐dollar, GDP Real GDP
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GDP is NOT…
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GDP is NOT…
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A Welfare Measure
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GDP is NOT…
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A Welfare Measure A Static Measure
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GDP is NOT…
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A Welfare Measure
A Static MeasureThe Only Tool for Macroeconomic Measurement
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Three Ways to Measure Production
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GDP: The sum of final expenditures
Consumer spending
Business Investment
Government
Net Exports
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Three Ways to Measure Production
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GDP: The sum of final expenditures
GDI: The sum of payments and costs incurred
Consumer spending
Business Investment
Government
Net Exports
Compensation of employees
Taxes on production and imports less subsidies
Net operating surplus
Consumption of fixed capital
=
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Three Ways to Measure Production
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GDP: The sum of final expenditures
GDI: The sum of payments and costs incurred
Gross Value Added: The sum of gross output less intermediate purchases across all private industries and government
Gross Value Added
Intermediate purchases
Consumer spending
Business Investment
Government
Net Exports
Compensation of employees
Taxes on production and imports less subsidies
Net operating surplus
Consumption of fixed capital
= =
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Why is income equal to expenditures?
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Individuals Business
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Why is income equal to expenditures?
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Individuals Business
LABOR
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Why is income equal to expenditures?
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Individuals Business
LABOR
INCOME
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Why is income equal to expenditures?
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Individuals Business
LABOR
INCOME
EXPENDITURES
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Why is income equal to expenditures?
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Individuals Business
LABOR
INCOME
GOODS AND SERVICES
EXPENDITURES
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Why is income equal to expenditures?
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Individuals Business
LABOR
INCOME
GOODS AND SERVICES
EXPENDITURES
Gross domestic product or expenditure‐side production
Gross domestic income or income‐side production
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Expenditure-Side Production (GDP)
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C I G X M GDP
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C I G X M GDP
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Expenditure-Side Production (GDP)
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Expenditure-Side Production (GDP)
C I G X M GDP
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Expenditure-Side Production (GDP)
C I G X M GDP
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Expenditure-Side Production (GDP)
C I G X M GDP
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Expenditure-Side Production (GDP)
C I G X M GDP
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Comments and questions from other participants visible here.
Please select “Ask GDP” to submit a question.
Submit Questions to Ask GDP
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Income-Side Production (GDI)
Comp TOPI Subs NOS CFC GDI
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Income-Side Production (GDI)
Comp TOPI Subs NOS CFC GDI
$
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Income-Side Production (GDI)
Comp TOPI Subs NOS CFC GDI
$
$
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Income-Side Production (GDI)
Comp TOPI Subs NOS CFC GDI
$
$
38
$
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Income-Side Production (GDI)
Comp TOPI Subs NOS CFC GDI
$
$
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$
$
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Comp TOPI Subs NOS CFC GDI
Income-Side Production (GDI)
$
$
40
$
$
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Release Cycle for GDP
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1. Current quarter
•Advance estimate• First time measured
• Second & third estimates•Revised from Advance
• Limited data•Monthly & quarterly Census data, BLS wages and salaries, trends
•Data may not directly represent concept
• Focus is on growth rates
2. Annual revision
•More robust data•Census annual surveys with some product detail
• Better fit with concepts• Lagged source data• Focus is on growth rates
3. Comprehensive revision
•Most complete data• Set GDP levels• Economic Census foundation
•Economic Census used to construct input‐output table
• Focus is on dollar levels and growth rates
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Revisions to GDP Improve AccuracySource Data Quality
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Better
Good
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Revisions to GDI Improve Accuracy
Source Data Quality
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Better
Good
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What are the main data sources for GDP and GDI?
Private data
Other federal agencies (Energy Information
Administration, Treasury)
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Census Bureau
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Census Advance Report Data BEA Uses in GDP Estimates
Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers (M3)
Investment in private equipment; Change in private
inventories
Advance Retail Trade Personal consumptionexpenditures
Advance International Trade in Goods Imports and exports
Advance Retail & Wholesale Inventories Change in private inventories
Census Produces BEA uses these to calculate:
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Census Data BEA Uses in GDP Estimates
M3 & Annual Survey of Manufactures
Investment in private equipment; Change in private inventories
Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Surveys
Personal consumptionexpenditures; Change in
private inventories
Monthly and Annual Wholesale Trade Surveys
Change in private inventories
Value of Construction Put in Place Investment in structures
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Imports and exports
Census Produces BEA uses these to calculate:
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Census Quarterly Data BEA Uses in GDP Estimates
Quarterly Services Survey; Service Annual Survey
Personal consumptionexpenditures; Private
investment in intellectual property
Quarterly Financial Report
Corporate profits
Change in private inventories
Census Produces BEA uses these to calculate:
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Census Data BEA Uses in GDP Estimates
Economic Census Lots and lots of detail!
County Business Patterns Wages and salaries by industry
State and Local Government Finance Statistics; Census of
Governments
State and local government spending
Business Expenses Intermediate inputs and value added for selected industries
Annual Capital Expenditure Survey
Consumption of fixed capital for structures and equipment
Census Produces BEA uses these to calculate:
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Consumer Spending Source Data
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Compo
sitio
n (sha
re) o
f sou
rce indicators, by type
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Consumer Spending Components
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Durable Goods ‐ Goods with a life span of 3 years or moreApproximately 11 percent of consumer spending
Nondurable Goods ‐ Goods with a life span of less than 3 yearsApproximately 23 percent of consumer spending
Services ‐ Commodities which cannot be stored and are consumed at time and place of purchaseApproximately 66 percent of consumer spending
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Primary Data Sources for Consumer Spending: Annual Estimates
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Consumer Spending on Goods:• Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey • Census Annual Retail Trade Survey • Economic Census • Other government sources• Private/trade sources
Consumer Spending on Services:• Census Services Annual Survey• Economic Census• Housing Surveys conducted by Census for Housing and Urban
Development• Other government sources• Private/trade sources
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Primary Data Sources for Consumer Spending: Current Estimates
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Consumer Spending on Goods:• Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey• Other government sources• Private/trade sources• Bureau of Labor Statistics price data
Consumer Spending on Services:• Census Quarterly Services Survey• Other government sources• Private/trade sources• Bureau of Labor Statistics price data
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Importance of Census Retail Sales Data
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Underlying source data for most consumer spending on goods estimates
Retail sales data provides the best approximation for measuring consumer expenditures on goods because most consumers purchase goods through the retail channel
Economic Census provides detailed product line tabulations to give a breakdown of product sales in each industry
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Importance of Census Services Annual Survey and Quarterly Services Survey
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Underlying source data for many consumer spending on services estimates
Services Annual Survey and Quarterly Services Survey data provide the most comprehensive revenue and expense patterns in real time on services industries
For some industries Census provides product and/or household specific details; provide a better alignment with the consumer spending on services structure
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Business Investment Source Data
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Business Investment Components
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Structures Residential Nonresidential
Equipment Intellectual property products Software Research and development Entertainment, literary, and artistic originals
Change in private inventories
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Primary Source Data for Structures
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Nonresidential Census Value of Construction Put in Place Prices for single‐family houses under construction American Petroleum Institute
Residential Census Value of Construction Put in Place Prices for single‐family houses under construction Census retail sales
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Primary Source Data for Equipment
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Economic Census of manufactures Annual Survey of Manufactures Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers (M3) Census/BEA trade data Motor vehicle data from trade sources Bureau of Labor Statistics price data
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Primary Source Data for Intellectual Property Products
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▪ Software Census Services Annual Survey Census Quarterly Services Survey Bureau of Labor Statistics employment occupational survey
▪ Research and development Economic Census Surveys conducted by Census for the National Science Foundation Companies’ R&D expense data from quarterly and annual financial
reports
▪ Entertainment, literary, and artistic originals Census Services Annual Survey Census Quarterly Services Survey Bureau of Labor Statistics current employment statistics
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Primary Source Data for Change in Private Inventories
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Economic Census Annual Survey of Manufactures Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers (M3) Advance Retail & Wholesale Inventories (Coming Soon) Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey Annual Wholesale Trade Survey Monthly Retail Trade Survey Annual Retail Trade Survey Value of Construction Put in Place Quarterly Financial Report Services Annual Survey
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Government Spending and Investment Source Data
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Government Spending and Investment Components
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Consumption expenditures: Employee compensation Consumption of fixed capital (CFC) Purchases of intermediate goods and services Less: Own‐account investment and sales to other sectors
Gross investment: Structures, equipment and intellectual property
Excludes spending for social benefits, other transfers, interest, and subsidies
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Primary Source Data for Federal Government
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Controls based on administrative data Budget Monthly Treasury Statement
Allocations of spending based on other data BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Agency reports Census Value of Construction Put in Place R&D Surveys conducted by Census for the National Science Foundation
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Primary Source Data for State and Local Government
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Census Bureau Census of Governments every five years Government Finances series of annual surveys in non‐Census years
Value of Construction Put in Place Annual surveys of pensions, employment Services Annual Survey, Quarterly Services Survey
R&D Surveys conducted by Census for the National Science Foundation
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
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International Trade Source Data
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Primary Source Data for International Trade
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Monthly Census Bureau trade data With adjustments by BEA to a balance‐of‐payments basis And other adjustments by BEA from a balance‐of‐payments basis to a
national accounting basis
BEA quarterly surveys Department of Defense data on services and some goods
provided by U.S. military agencies Department of Homeland Security data on the number of
foreign visitors by air Office of Travel and Tourism Industries survey of international
air travelers
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The Third Estimate of 2015Q4 GDP
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Third Estimate: 1.4%
Second: 1.0%
Advance: 0.7%
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Revisions to 2015Q4 GDP Components
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Upward revision to consumer spending• Census Quarterly Services Survey• FDIC Call Report
Upward revision to exports• International transactions account data
Downward revision to inventories• Revised Census inventory data
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Data, Tools, Apps,
&Training
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April 21: GDP by Industry, 2015Q4 and 2015 Value‐added production
April 28: GDP, 2016Q1 Advance estimate Expenditure‐side production
May 27: GDP and GDI, 2016Q1 second estimate Expenditure‐side and income‐side production
June 14: GDP by State, 2015Q4 and 2015 July 29: 2016 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
Upcoming Data Releases from BEA
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• National Data• GDP & Personal
Income• Fixed Assets
• Industry Data• GDP-by-Industry• Input-Output
• International Data• International
Transactions, Services & IIP
• Direct Investment & MNEs
• Regional Data• GDP & Personal
Income
BEA’s Interactive Data Tables
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What data will you discover? Find out at: http://bea.gov/itable/index.cfm
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• Economic Indicators Briefing Room ‐ http://www.census.gov/economic‐indicators/ Access all monthly and quarterly Economic Indicators data presented by the Census Bureau, including the data presented today.
• Business and Industry ‐ http://www.census.gov/econ/o Access all of the annual Economic data presented by the Census
Bureau, including County Business Patterns and the Census of Governments and Governments Finances
• Economic Census ‐ business.census.govo Access the latest data from the 2012 Economic Census
Economic Data from the Census Bureau
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Census Business Builder
www.census.gov/data/data‐tools/cbb
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• Advance Monthly Retail Sales
• Advance Report Durable Goods
• Business Inventories • Construction Spending • Consumer Price Index • Homeownership Rate • International Trade • Manufacturers’ Goods • Monthly Wholesale • New Residential
Construction
• New Residential Sales • Nonfarm Payroll• Personal Income • Producer Price Index • QFR–Manufacturing • QFR–Retail Trade • Quarterly Services Survey • Real Gross Domestic
Product • Unemployment Rate
America’s Economy: Mobile App
www.census.gov/mobile
Indicators Available:
Available for iPhone, iPad, and Android devices
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd9cZ9sPSpI
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Relationships between Monthly Indicators to Annual Surveys and
5‐Year Economic Censuses
Did you know that every five years, the U.S. Census Bureau conducts an Economic Census that affects monthly Economic Indicators and their annual counterparts? In this webinar, we will discuss how we trend monthly indicator data to the annual surveys and Economic Census.
Visit www.census.gov/econ/webinar for a complete list of upcoming webinars
Upcoming Webinars & Short Survey:https://questionweb.com/21106
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June 29, 2016
many more&
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Questions, Suggestions, & Feedback
7676
John SperryEconomic Indicators Division
U.S. Census Bureau
Direct Phone: (301) 763‐3431Email: [email protected]
Web site: www.census.gov/economic‐indicators/
Webinar Website: http://www.census.gov/econ/webinar
Marissa CrawfordEconomist
Bureau of Economic AnalysisNational Economic Accounts
Direct Phone: (202) 606‐9729Email: [email protected]
Web site: www.bea.gov