The Body In The Bag
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![Page 1: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Body in the Bag
Presented By:•Jennifer Fitzmaurice•Martha Fimowicz•Karen Kuklewicz
![Page 2: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Case Background
• Late Spring in the morning, an elderly
retiree with a fishing pole, walks through
the underbrush that lined the river’s bank.
• He nears the shore and
sees a rather large canvas
bag floating in the water,
held by the foliage that
leaned over the river.
![Page 3: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Case Background
• The bag appears to be stuffed, well worn
and heavily stained.
• Upon further inspection he sees what he
believes to be hair floating through the
bag’s opening.
• He marks the spot and notifies the
authorities.
![Page 4: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Case Background
• Preliminary investigation at the scene
revealed a body in the bag.
• The body’s sex, age and race can not be
immediately identified.
• Forensics is assigned
the task of identifying the
victim and estimating the
cause and time of death
![Page 5: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Tasks of the Detectives
• Develop a preliminary profile of the victim and offender.
• Only information that the detective has is that the victim and offender are both adults (over 18 years of age).
• Information gathered by the detective in charge concerning victim/offender relationships from the Uniform Crime Reports from the FBI (2003).
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Race of Victim/Offender
Race of Offender
Race of Victim
White Black Other TOTAL
White 3017 501 44 3562
Black 226 2864 8 3098
Other 47 26 122 195
Unknown 33 21 2 56
TOTAL 3323 3412 176 6911
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Sex of Victim/Offender
Sex of Offender
Sex of Victim
Male Female Unknown TOTAL
Male 4417 499 71 4987
Female 1754 185 23 1962
Unknown 49 7 19 75
TOTAL 6220 691 113 7024
![Page 8: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Victim Profile
Based on the information from Uniform Crime Reports from the FBI (2003);
What is the best prediction of the
race and sex of the offender?
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Race of Victim
Race of Victim
TOTAL
White 3562
Black 3098
Other 195
Unknown 56
TOTAL 6911
Race of Victim
TOTAL
White 51.5%
Black 44.8%
Other 2.8%
Unknown 0.8%
TOTAL 100%
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Sex of Victim
Sex of Victim
TOTAL
Male 4987
Female 1962
Unknown 75
TOTAL 6911
Sex of Victim
TOTAL
Male 71.0%
Female 27.9%
Unknown 1.1%
TOTAL 100%
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Victim Profile
• White Male• Probability is Classical Probability• Probability Rule is that the Probability
Value must be between 0 and 1• Where the Probability of the Victim
being White is 3562/6911 = 51.5%• Where the Probability of the Victim being Male is 4987/7024 = 71.0%
![Page 12: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
What is the best prediction as to the race and sex of the
offender?
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Offender Details: Race
Race Total
White 3,323
Black 3,412
Other 176
Total 6,911
Race Total
White 48.1%
Black 49.4%
Other 2.5%
Total 100.0%
![Page 14: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Offender Details: Sex
Race Total
Male 6,620
Female 691
Unknown 113
Total 7,024
Race Total
Male 88.6%
Female 9.8%
Unknown 1.6%
Total 100.0%
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Offender Profile
• Black Male• Probability is Classical Probability• Probability Rule is that the Probability
Value must be between 0 and 1• Where the Probability being Black is
3,412 / 6,911 = 49.4%• Where the Probability being Male is
6,620 / 7,024 = 88.6%
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How likely is that the victim and the offender are of the same race? Same gender? And does it agree with the preliminary predictions?
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Joint Profile: Race
Offender Total
White 48.1%
Black 49.4%
Other 2.5%
Total 100.0%
Victim Total
White 51.5%
Black 44.8%
Other 3.6%
Total 100.0%
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Joint Profile: Race
P(white) 48.1% * 51.5% = 24.8%
P(black) 49.4% * 44.8% = 22.1%
Probability is Classical Probability with multiplication rules. The method for finding the probability that both of two events occur.
![Page 19: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Joint Profile: Sex
Offender Total
Male 88.6%
Female 9.8%
Unknown 1.6%
Total 100.0%
Victim Total
Male 71.0%
Female 27.9%
Unknown 1.1%
TOTAL 100%
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Joint Profile: Sex
P(male) 88.6% * 71.0% = 62.9%
P(female) 9.8% * 27.9% = 2.7%
Probability is Classical Probability with multiplication rules. The method for finding the probability that both of two events occur.
![Page 21: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Joint Profiles
• The joint profiles for race of the individuals state it is 22.1% likely they are black and 24.8% they are white.
• For the sex of the victim and offender, it is 62.9% likely that they are male and 2.7% they are female.
• The joint profile analysis agrees for gender but does not for race.
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Preliminary Forensic Report
• Autopsy suggested that the body had been in the water at least two weeks
• Victim was a white female with blonde hair
• She was estimated as being in her mid-thirties, showed no signs of having had children, and was wearing no jewelry.
![Page 23: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Race of Offender
Race of Offender
Race of Victim
White Black Other TOTAL
White 3017 501 44 3562
Black 226 2864 8 3098
Other 47 26 122 195
Unknown 33 21 2 56
TOTAL 3323 3412 176 6911
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Sex of Offender
Sex of Offender
Sex of Victim
Male Female Unknown TOTAL
Male 4417 499 71 4987
Female 1754 185 23 1962
Unknown 49 7 19 75
TOTAL 6220 691 113 7024
![Page 25: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Offender Profile
• Race of offender in percentage
• Sex of offender in percentage
Race of Offender
TOTAL
White 84.7%
Black 14.1%
Other 1.2%
Sex of Offender
TOTAL
Female 9.4%
Male 89.4%
Unknown 1.2%
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Offender Profile
• White Male
• Probability is Classical Probability
• Where the Probability of the Offender being White is 3017/3562 = 84.7%
• Where the Probability of the Offender
being Male is 1754/1962 = 89.4%
![Page 27: The Body In The Bag](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022052311/55777d4fd8b42a56728b51cb/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
QUESTIONS?