The Belt and Road Initiative:

From Chongqing to Duisburg

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CONTENTS

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THE BIG PICTURE2 Leading the way on the Belt and Road

GOING GREEN4 Green finance’s role in the BRI

BELT AND ROAD BONDS5 Capital markets and their alternatives

BELT AND ROAD M&A6 More scrutiny, less enthusiasm

TRADE FINANCE 8 Making the most of BRI opportunities

引领者11 “一带一路”的引领者

绿色金融13 绿色金融及其在“一带一 路”倡议中的作用

“一带一路”倡议债券14 “一带一路”债券？ 资本市场以及其他方案

“一带一路”并购15 “一带一路”并购： 审查严苛但热情不减

贸易融资16 贸易融资：最大程度利用“ 一带一路”倡议的机会

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This report is a publication of Commerzbank. It is a write-up of The China Germany BRI Summit, held in Beijing on June 28, 2018. GlobalRMB’s commercial content team was commissioned to write some or all of the content. The report may not reflect the views of GlobalRMB’s editorial team

THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

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THE BIG PICTURE

Leading the way on the Belt and RoadChina is ramping up its efforts to make the Belt and Road a global, inclusive initiative that benefits people across the globe while also creating opportunities for growth and investment. Commerzbank is ready to play its part in the historic project.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) turns only five years old this year, but its global impact is already massive. The involvement of over

60 countries and over $100bn in pledged investments from China mean that the initiative is increasingly under the global spotlight.

And while the BRI will become many things to many people, most will agree that it is ambitious. Through the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and the Silk Road Eco-nomic Belt, China’s aim is nothing less than reshaping the global maps of trade and investment by linking together Australasia, Europe and Africa.

Speaking at the China Germany BRI Summit this June, Roland Boehm, divi-sional board member of Commerzbank, underlines that the sheer vision behind the project makes it praiseworthy.

“The BRI is, if anything, a long-term plan, in a world in which newspapers are full of short-term surprises and kneejerk reactions to many events,” he says.

Commerzbank recently published a white paper titled Changing the behaviour and perceptions of corporate China to describe what Commerzbank sees as the next stage of evolution for the BRI. That phase will be characterised by increasing levels of operational details and more concrete frameworks. It is in this phase that Com-merzbank can bring its scale and expertise to bear.

Sino-German ties already run deep. From the development of the very concept of Silk Road, coined by German geographer Ferdinand von Richthofen in 1877 we arrive at the present day, where bilateral trade hit $187bn in 2017 and is rising rapidly. Com-merzbank is already a leading actor in that trade relationship, as the bank settles approximately 30% of Germany’s overall foreign trade business.

As investments under the initiative pick up, those details and framework will make all the difference in this new, more mature phase. The BRI is not just about trade. There were nearly 500 acquisitions by China in Western Europe in the 2016-17 and just over half that amount across all Belt and Road countries. While those numbers are no longer on the meteoric rise of a few years back, the trend is clear: the flows between China and Germany, as well as the rest of Europe, are here to stay.

M&A has evolved, with Chinese compa-nies now aiming not solely to acquire a technological lead but behaving as leading global players in their respective markets, making strategic investments along the way. The two sides are also bringing differ-ent attitudes to the table.

“The sentiment in Germany, among German business, and among the German business federations, is that Chinese invest-ment is very much welcomed in Germany,” says Boehm. “Because the Chinese investors very often follow the same long-term view that German investors have followed when they’ve built their companies. The Chinese investors are seen as very good long-term stewards, not only of the business but also of the people. And there are a lot of very exciting success stories along that path, Chemchina and Syngenta being one.”

M&A is just part of that broader BRI story. Commerzbank believes the next phase will be about providing the financing to support the massive scope of investments under the initiative. As the scope of the initiative con-tinues to expand, alongside the traditional Chinese state-owned financial institutions, a new cohort of banks will find a role to play. This financing, after all, is aiming to fill a funding gap of anywhere between $3tr and $8tr, far too large an amount for any single country to handle.

Supporting this broader M&A and financ-

ing activities, Boehm recalls that trade infrastructure will remain the lifeblood of the initiative. For that reason, railways and other infrastructure projects will be key to smoothing the paths of trade and ensuring the BRI’s success. It is precisely with that purpose that the Hamburg-Zhengzhou rail link came into being, making the land route a viable alternative to the maritime one.

“I think this is only the beginning, but it really underscores how important trade is in all of that,” says Boehm. “For us, at Commerzbank, a bank founded on trade, on making trade possible, a bank very proud to be processing one-third of German exports, this is a very exciting field for us to be in and to be supporting.”

THE SILK ROAD FUND BLUEPRINTA shining example of what the BRI can offer is the Silk Road Fund. Luo Yang, managing director at the fund, firmly believes China will stand behind its slogans.

“Although the BRI originally comes from China, it is an international public good,” says Luo. “It is open, equal, and inclusive. And the participation and involvement of any organisation from other countries are highly welcome.”

Roland Boehm, divisional board member of Commerzbank

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THE BIG PICTURE

The Silk Road Fund, set up in 2014, one year after the BRI was launched, received an initial capitalisation of $40bn, but the fund has grown well beyond that after addi-tional funding of Rmb100bn ($14.7 billion) was announced this year.

Luo says the fund aims to adhere to inter-national standards that can guarantee the success of the BRI, pointing to the fact that several key figures at the fund have previ-ously worked for the largest multilateral organisations, including the International Monetary Fund.

The fund operates through both loans to projects and acquisition of equity stakes in companies that can support the construc-tion of the BRI and promote bilateral and multilateral connectivity between coun-tries. It targets infrastructure, resources and energy sectors, and Luo emphasises that the organisation strives to coordinate with the development strategies of the countries where it invests.

This node is crucial for Germany and its future relationship with China. While trade between the two countries can continue to grow on a bilateral basis, it does not have to end there. Luo notes that a key strategic decision for the Fund and China’s broader BRI strategy is that they aim to coordinate with other localised initiatives, such as Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union, or the European Union’s Investment Plan, also known as the Juncker Plan.

“The investments by our fund are synergised with existing cooperative mechanisms and the development plans of relevant countries and regions,” says Luo. “This also makes sure all countries feel comfortable, avoiding conflict.”

The track record shows this can be done successfully. In the Fund’s first investment, the Karot Hydropower Project in Pakistan, it cooperated with the International Finan-cial Corporation, under the World Bank Group. To fund this project, the Silk Road Fund and IFC become joint shareholders of China Three Gorges South Asia Investment Limited, a subsidiary of China Three Gorges Corporation.

The Fund also joined IFC’s Asian Emerg-ing Market Fund as a limited partner. This enables China to cooperate with official development institutions from Japan and South Korea, investing in projects in countries including India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

The US has already come on board, with

General Electric Corporation joining forces with a $500m fund targeting infrastructure investment in BRI countries.

GERMANY AND THE BRI OPPORTUNITYEurope is preparing to expand co-operation with China under the initiative. The Silk Road Fund has already signed co-opera-tion agreements with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Fund, under the European Investment Bank (EIB). Together with EIB, they established a China Europe Co-investment Fund, a venture targeting equity investments in Europe with initial funding of Eur500m. The joint venture made its first investments, via the Cathay Midcap II fund, in July. The join fund has also approved the first investment with a German insurance company in an Italian project, says Luo.

Luo says that the BRI will also be conducive to the greater diversification of financing currencies beyond the dollar, as well as boosting the internationalisation of the renminbi.

“The RMB joined the SDR basket and its role as an international reserve currency enhances the demand for RMB investment and financing,” Luo says. “After receiving an RMB capital injection last May, our fund has been actively exploring how to make good use of the both the US dollar and RMB, to promote better multicurrency investment and financing services.”

As for Germany, Luo refers to the words of China’s president. “In March 2014, President Xi Jinping pointed out, during his visit to Germany, that China and Germany, located at both ends of the Silk Road Eco-nomic Belt, are the two major economies under the initiative and close partners,” says Luo.

“Our cooperation will benefit both countries as well as Europe and the world. The Silk Road Fund looks forward to coop-erating with Germany’s institutions and enterprises.”

As for Commerzbank, it signed a co-oper-ation framework agreement with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China on July 18, the first agreement of its kind by a German bank, specifically targeting the BRI. The bank has committed to support $5bn worth of business related to BRI projects over a period of five years.

“We are delighted to partner with ICBC to further support projects along the Belt and

Road route,” says Nick Johnston, regional board member for Asia at Commerzbank. “Through this framework, we are building on our international reach in more than 50 countries offering more flexible funding, investment and risk management oppor-tunities for our clients across the Belt and Road route.”

The two banks will look for avenues of co-operation across trade finance, corporate advisory, debt capital markets, funding and financing, transaction banking and asset management.

THE ROAD AHEADJohnston says that, at a time of growing tension around international trade and the organisations that support it, it is encourag-ing to see China so strongly embracing this all-important pillar of global growth.

“I think it’s really good to see that in China there’s very much a long-term plan,” he says. “And this plan is really about focusing on growing trade, on interna-tionalising more. And it’s a plan that is inclusive, a plan that all of us can benefit from in the businesses that we operate.”

Commerzbank is, in that sense, fully behind the BRI project, as a bank founded on trade 150 years ago in Hamburg, Ger-many.

“We’re very much convinced that the BRI will shape world trade, and it will do so from a positive perspective,” says Johnston. “We also believe that, given our positioning at both ends of the BRI and our experience in international trade, we are well posi-tioned to play our part in supporting some of these developments.”

The more inclusive the BRI becomes, the more diversified its funding, the more institutions like Commerzbank will be able to support it and facilitate it. ◼

Nick Johnston, regional board member for Asia at Commerzbank

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GOING GREEN

Green finance’s role in the BRIThe global capital markets got a first taste of the potential of socially-responsible finance just a decade ago when the World Bank priced the world’s first green bond. This area of finance has grown dramatically since, with China becoming a global leader. As the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) grows, the Chinese government is likely to expand its emphasis on green funding beyond the domestic economy.

Chinese financial institutions have not stopped at the domestic market and have already begun to tap the international capital markets to

meet their green funding targets. Commer-zbank has shown its ability to headline some of these deals by key Chinese issuers. It helped China Development Bank on the euro tranche of an inaugural dual-currency green bond in November 2017. This was the first green bond by a Chinese policy bank and the first green Silk Road bond, among other accomplishments.

The deal showed that green finance is already at the heart of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and that there is great potential for the BRI to develop an influ-ential green agenda, especially if China succeeds in aligning its green principles with the global standards.

Ruediger Geis, head of trade affairs at Commerzbank and the head of the Sustainable Trade Working Group of the International Chamber of Commerce, framed green finance standards and princi-ples through three ‘Ps’: people, planet, and profit.

The first two principles refer to individ-uals’ impact and the environmental issues the world faces, while the third principle emphasises the need to bring together the green agenda with the business needs of financial institutions and companies.

“Without a business case, green finance is not going to work,” says Geis.

Liu Zhiqin, a senior fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of the Renmin University of China, whose institute is also in charge of studying green financing under the BRI, supports that.

He adds that environmental protection can and should guide an understanding of what green finance is targeting. But the ultimate goal is changing the approach to economic growth, which he defines as ‘green development’.

The market has struggled to come up with

unified answers to the question of what is green finance, with some notable contra-dictions, for example on whether financing clean coal can or cannot be considered green financing. China believes it can, while the international consensus takes the opposite view.

Liu admits China’s emphasis on rapid growth has been the primary factor in Chi-na’s approach to defining green finance in the past. That, however, is rapidly chang-ing, especially as the country reckons with the environmental cost of its growth model.

“In China, we now understand green finance more and more deeply,” says Liu. “We understand this is very important for China’s progress. We have a serious challenge with water pollution, so the effort in that is something China pays much attention to. The Chinese people now accept the concept of green finance quickly and without any difficulties.”

Under the BRI’s plans for strengthening international co-operation, green finance can play an important role in linking the Chinese and German economies, but only if countries resist the temptation to put up walls against investments.

“Every country, every market should be opened, especially in the technology field, so that there is no limitations,” says Liu. “We should learn from each other.  We should share the technology.  Green finance is a finance of sharing, benefiting all kinds of people, all kinds of industries.  We should not have a limitation on some companies, or on China’s investment into Germany.”

Geis noteds some of the difficulties in bringing together the concepts of BRI and green finance.

“It’s difficult, given that infrastructure accounts for 30% to 40% of all greenhouse gas emissions,” he says. “But that’s exactly the point.  If we do it in the right way, if we try to do it in a more environmen-tally-friendly way, share techniques and

technical solutions, that might be a good way of helping.”

Liu says China understands that green development will be the lifeline of the BRI.

“China has reached out to many countries along the BRI Initiative,” he says. “For many of these countries, green development is the priority, and they have very tough environmental feasibility requirements.  So

it is very important for the BRI and China that companies improve their technology standards to meet all these demands.”

One thing the experts agree on is that there will be a need for substantial gov-ernment inputs to guarantee a successful dialogue on green finance along the BRI. The European Union has already started down this path with establishment frame-works for green investments and corporates reporting on environmental, social and governance risks.

Ultimately, the key factor will be educa-tion.

“To have green financing we will need to invest a lot in green education, to educate the people on how to follow the rules and regulations related to the green develop-ment,” says Liu. ◼

Ruediger Geis, head of trade affairs at Commerzbank and head of the Sustainable Trade Working Group of the International Chamber of Commerce

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BELT AND ROAD BONDS

Capital markets and their alternativesThe financing of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in the early stages of the programme has relied on Chinese policy and state-owned banks. But as the BRI becomes increasingly and truly global, Commerzbank believes public capital markets will start to play the role they are designed for.

China Development Bank had some $110bn in outstanding loans extended to BRI projects as of 2016, a third of the bank’s inter-

national loans, while The Export-Import Bank of China had signed off $90bn in loans, a quarter of the bank’s total loans. But with scope for investments of over $20trn, by some estimates, in BRI projects across more than 60 countries, covering two-thirds of the world’s population, the financing gap remains huge.

The BRI’s evolution will see new types of collaborations to fill that gap, as shown by the Silk Road Fund’s co-operation agreements with multilateral financing institutions in Europe and beyond. With this next phase, signalled by agreements such as that between Commerzbank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the question of fully market-driven financ-ing for the BRI will become key.

“Not all funding can come from Chinese institutions,” says Ghislain Bahini, a direc-tor and senior structured credit trader for credit solutions at Commerzbank.

“We are going now to a next stage because there is a need for collaborations between global financial institutions such as Commerzbank.”

The bank has a network of capital mar-kets expertise that already extends beyond Europe to Latin America, in Russia, the CIS countries, Africa as well as Asia. Commer-zbank believes the capital markets offer plenty of solutions to the future financing needs of the BRI, whether it be syndicated loans, corporate bonds or even Schuld-schein.

Schuldschein bonds have increasingly been internationalised, notes Christine Chan, head of DCM loans for Asia at Com-merzbank.

“We’ve seen companies like Lufthansa tap the Asian liquidity for Schuldschein,” says Chan. “We’ve also seen some of the Chinese subsidiaries in Europe tap this market as well. As opposed to the syn-dicated loan, the size is slightly smaller. We can look at anything from $50 million upwards to about $250 million.”

On the bond side, Daz Zhang, head of the DCM bond syndicate for Asia at Commer-zbank, notes the growing appeal of the euro-denominated market for Chinese issu-ers. The bank has helped several Chinese policy and commercial banks to tap this liquidity.

“Amongst many of these transactions, I’m very pleased to share that many of them are also green bond transactions and many of them are bonds that are used to finance BRI projects,” says Zhang.

The bond markets have the potential to satisfy a lot of that financing demand, but Bahini adds there will be room for a wide range of tailored solutions that account for the needs of different clients.

Mohammed Lawal, global head of credit solutions at Commerzbank, says the use of collateral has become key in developing these more nimble alternative funding solutions.

“You may have a borrower that wants to borrow only through loans, but you may have an investor or lender base that can only buy securities,” says Lawal. “What alternative financing does is to ensure that we can bridge this gap. So, you can lend to a borrower in the form of a loan and you can repackage this and offer it to an inves-tor in the form of a security or a note.”

Renminbi-readiness will also be an important tool for international banks and companies seeking to participate in the BRI.

China gave the go-ahead to an offshore

renminbi (CNH) market in Hong Kong in 2007, but it is also opening the door to more and more foreign issuers at home, via the Panda bond market. In the first eight months of 2018, Rmb68bn worth of Panda

bonds were priced, compared to Rmb28bn of syndicated CNH bonds, according to data from GlobalRMB.

More importantly, China is emphasising the ability of foreign issuers to take advan-tage of China’s bond markets, the world’s third largest at over $11tr The onshore regulators have already issued rules for BRI bonds in both exchange and interbank markets, and a number of deals, including the sovereign debut by the Republic of the Philippines, were marketed under the BRI flag.

As China’s market opens up to global financial institution and BRI project financing becomes an integral part of global capital markets, Commerzbank will be ready to help issuers and investors find the right solutions for their financing needs along the Belt and the Road. ◼

Mohammed Lawal, global head of credit solutions at Commerzbank

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BELT AND ROAD M&A

More scrutiny, less enthusiasm

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) first came into global public view primarily as a vehicle for infrastructure investment across three continents. While that is likely to remain the case in the coming decades, given the well-understood huge funding gap in infrastructure worldwide, the BRI is also influencing trends in M&A between economic powerhouses such as China and Germany.

China has already become a global player in M&A, with several land-mark acquisition in developed and emerging markets alike. China

accounted for a tiny 1% of global cross-bor-der M&A transactions in 2007. By 2017 the figure had jumped to 14%.

Germany has been no exception, with transactions closed across a range of sectors from automotive components, to metals and mining, to electronics.

Wang Kai, director of the secretariat office of the Chinese-German economic advisory committee at the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, notes the ties between the two countries are ready to grow even more.

“President Xi Jinping met Premier Merkel and proposed the priorities for the future of the partnership,” says Wang. “The number one priority was that mutually beneficial cooperation should be further promoted. And secondly that the two countries must demonstrate a new type of partnership in the future.”

That new type of partnership will be built on the private sector, and in

particular, on the cooperation between entrepreneurs from both countries, which can help implement the BRI, adds Wang.

Chinese outbound M&A has now evolved well beyond just targeting the US, as it was the case in the early days of China’s outbound activity. Europe has come increasingly into focus, with Germany being a hotspot.

“We are receiving an increasing level of interest in industrial, healthcare and environmental related sectors, and we have been enjoying a very good relationship with Commerzbank in that regard, working both in Germany and also in China,” says Joseph Ng, co-head of M&A advisory at ICBC International. “They have been help-ing our clients in Germany, and equally, we are helping more of their clients from Germany in their China activities.”

And with the mood in the US turning sour on China, there is room for Germany to remain a focus, says Christine Chan, head of DCM loans for Asia at Commer-zbank.

“Germany has a lot of technological

capabilities, and we also feel that the industries of the German Mittelstand fall very much in line with the target industries for Chinese acquirers,” says Chan.

Market participants are nonetheless conscious that global politics are ushering in a new phase of restraint, where despite calls for openness and integration under the BRI, countries are also becoming more careful about the type of transactions coming through.

However, that is not necessarily an inauspicious development for the BRI.

“Introducing a little caution into the system was no bad thing,” says Martin Rock, the head of corporate advisory for Asia at Commerzbank. “I think we had some of deals in the past where it was not very clear what the strategy was, or that were just a trophy acquisition. Those kinds of transactions have been very much mod-erated and taken out of the system. So I think it will be more controlled. And I think M&A within the BRI concept is clearly going to be highly favoured, in terms of getting

President Xi Jinping met

Premier Merkel and proposed the priorities for the future of the partnership. The number one priority was that mutually beneficial cooperation should be further promoted

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BELT AND ROAD M&A

approvals, getting backing, and speeding transactions through any kind of review processes in the future.”

Rock says that BRI-related M&A will remain in favour also because it allows Chi-nese firms to build the global profile that China as a country is seeking to develop with the initiative itself. The targets will vary depending on the sectors being looked at. While Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan will be at the top of the list for natural resources, Singapore may be favoured for high-tech. Given the diversity of possibilities, the outlook is unlikely to turn negative for M&A activity.

However, investors and target firms will need to navigate a more complex environ-ment both at home and abroad.

In China, the regulators began tightening the screws on outbound flows to contain what they saw as increasingly speculative purchases, where in some cases trans-actions were ultimately just aiming to

circumvent capital controls.Germany has also changed its tune,

introducing in July 2017 amendments to the Foreign Trade and Payments Ordinance.

“The Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy amended their foreign trade regulation and broadened the scope of the review,” says He Wei, a partner with international law firm King & Wood Mallesons. “Originally, it was only non-EU investors into sectors which they believed posed a threat to the public order or national security being reviewed, which was a rather tightly defined scope. But now they have significantly broadened the scope to cover telematics, telecommunica-tion, cloud computing, software, and data centres.”

The new rules have already caught some transactions that do not originate in the EU in their crossfire, but at least in the first case of a Chinese acquisition, targeting plane part-maker Cotesa, subjected to a formal investigation, that transaction was eventually approved in May 2018.

The new review is likely to slow down the pace of transactions, and it may also push acquirers to reconsider the size of their stakes to avoid triggering the review altogether, with the threshold set at 25% of voting rights of a German company deemed to be in a sensitive sector for national security reasons.

Commerzbank’s Rock underlines that, despite the new rules, Europe would not enter the path of protectionism increas-ingly seen from the United States.

“It’s quite natural to take a closer look at some transactions in sensitive sectors. So I don’t see that as alarmingly protectionist,” says Rock.

“I think the commonality between China and Germany is taking a long-term view.

And if that long-term view helps to develop reciprocity in terms of trade and invest-ment, then I think short-term changes in looking at deals a little closer will be ironed out as time goes on.”

As for the broader strengthening of linkages, the BRI is bringing Germany and China, at the two ends of the New Silk Road, closer together. However, it also opens up opportunities in between.

“I think that there are options: you can buy at the end of the Road and you can buy along the Road,” says Rock. “I would say that Chinese companies should be open to looking at both. There’s a scenario where you can actually buy market positions and technology at the end of the Road in developed markets, and exploit those technologies further along the countries in between. And to some extent, I think

Chinese companies can help German com-panies do more business along the Belt and Road, too. So I am very optimistic about cooperation and the mutual benefit of the BRI.” ◼

Christine Chan, head of DCM loans for Asia at Commerzbank

Martin Rock, head of corporate advisory for Asia at Commerzbank

Germany has a lot of technological capabilities, and we also feel that the industries of the German Mittelstand fall very much in line with the target industries for Chinese acquirers

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TRADE FINANCE

Making the most of BRI opportunitiesThe Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is set to become a global web connecting economies across continents, where increasingly complex transactions will take place. Yet the BRI’s strength will ultimately be measured on the trade ties that link those economies, and Commerzbank plans to play a key role in facilitating that trade through its financing toolkit.

The global flows of trade, and increasingly those through the BRI footprint, go through the work of firms like DHL, which

helps firms physically deliver those goods across the map, facilitating 12% of the entire global trade activity.

The firm has taken a keen interest in the BRI, says Stephen Fung, a partner and head of Asia Pacific at DHL Consulting. DHL had one of its containers on the first train linking China’s Chongqing and the German city of Duisburg and has since seen volumes on that route increase steadily.

There are now seven trains a day that leave China and head to Europe, with Chi-na’s National Development and Reform Commission expecting to see that number nearly double by 2020. That will have a clear impact on the preferred pathways of global trade.

“The increase in trade volumes using the railway infrastructure that has been built under BRI is a development that is also benefiting companies like DHL,” says Fung. “We have many companies that are using that railway solution as an alterna-tive to what they previously would have used, which is ocean freight or air freight. To give you some comparison, to bring cargo from Shanghai into Duisburg you would typically need 12 days of lead time compared to roughly 35 to 40 days if you were to bring the same container on ocean freight to the same port.”

The success of the BRI has also enabled other Asian manufacturing powerhouses, such as Japanese auto firms, to make use of the improved connections, allowing these firms to cut down delivery times by roughly half compared to ocean freight.

Another interesting case study came

from this year’s Fifa World Cup in Russia. A DHL client, a sports brand, had

recently relocated some of its manu-facturing to Vietnam. DHL decided to

experiment with a road and rail combo, with the goods trucked to Chongqing, where they were then shipped off through

the railway link heading to Moscow. The time savings were sufficient to get the goods delivered before the World Cup started.

Financial institutions are also seeking to play their part, including those from well beyond China. 

The African Export-Import Bank, a development finance institution, has already engaged in extensive work with BRI-related projects. This includes providing lending to Chinese engineer-ing, procurement and construction firms contracted on African projects or financing firms in the oil and gas space that have entered in joint ventures with governments in the continent, says Gwen Mwaba, global head of trade finance at Afreximbank.

The co-operation extends to co-financing with China Exim Bank in situations where Chinese firms are themselves relocating production to lower-cost jurisdictions such as the Ivory Coast or Kenya, where they are setting up new industrial parks.

The institution can also facilitate the tendering of projects to African firms.

“When Chinese firms involve Afrex-imbank early on during their negotiation, as they are tendering for some of these contracts on the continent, we can help with some of those negotiations by ensuring that they become competitive,” says Mwaba. “For example, rather than asking for spot payments, they can extend payment terms, and Afreximbank would build in the cost of financing so that when they tender, they’re more competitive than the bidders who would ask for spot payments.”

For Commerzbank, these trends are indicators that China has matured to a new stage of economic development.

Deepan Dagur, regional head of trade finance and cash management for Asia at Commer-zbank

In the history of mankind, there’s never been a country that has grown so much, so quickly. It is absolutely unprecedented. And what’s remarkable is, it’s a country of this size as well

GlobalRMB 9

TRADE FINANCE

“The country is becoming more and more ambitious in terms of its cross-bor-der infrastructure investments, which in the very short term are exports of engineering solutions and related prod-ucts,” says Deepan Dagur, regional head of trade finance and cash management for Asia at Commerzbank. “As that build-up happens it then creates a flow for the next five, 10, 20 years. So there’s definitely the shift away from low-value manufactured exports towards higher-end engineering solutions, heavily dependent on technolo-gies that are linked to infrastructure.”

That is not to say that Chinese compa-nies entering the BRI fray face no possible downsides. Zhu Jinping, CFO for Greater China at Voith Turbo China, a manufac-turer of industrial machinery, notes that venturing overseas requires a significant change of mindset for many of these companies.

“The Chinese government is famous for good planning and good execution,” says Zhu. “And with that, China created a very stable growth environment for the domes-tic enterprises in the last three decades. But everything comes with a downside. Our companies were so protected in the past that they tend to forget how lucky they were when they go to the interna-tional market. Then all of a sudden, they are exposed to all sorts of risks in this marketplace, including political and social risk.”

He cites the case of Malaysia cancelling some pipeline deals with China due to a change in government as an example.

“On top of that, of course, we are talking about different legal environments, tax sys-tems, foreign exchange risks that we need to

hedge, as well as enrolling Sinosure [China Export Credit Insurance Corporation] to cover your projects, so that all the payment risk is taken care of,” he adds.

However, corporates will increasingly be able to look at a wider range of financial institutions to help mitigate those risks.

Dagur notes that Commerzbank is already offering a range of services to help to its clients looking at the BRI

opportunities. The first group of services is around trade finance and supply chain solutions, a second is around funding and working capital optimisation, and a third is around helping corporates to outsource some of their cash management to reduce the operational and administrative burden in the more remote areas of the business footprint.

For Voith’s Zhu, the paramount need was insuring against the downside by

relying on the right type of advisors. On that front, Germany had a lot to teach.

“What China is going through, the Chinese businesses are going through today, German companies have been there already, decades ago,” says Zhu. “They paid the price to learn how to deal with international operations. With that said, if you look at the Chinese personality and German personality, the Chinese are very much risk-takers, entrepreneurial and be fast, and Germans are very structured. And those personalities, to me, are very complementary to each other.”

Commerzbank’s Dagur sets the great challenge of the BRI in context with Chi-na’s past. He says that in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping launched his economic reforms in China, no one would have imagined that the next three decades would see a 30-fold increase in GDP per capita in dollar terms.

“In the history of mankind, there has never been a country that has grown so much, so quickly, in such a short period,” says Dagur. “It is absolutely unprece-dented. And what’s remarkable is, it’s a country of this size as well.

“People often say the BRI project too ambitious. But I think when we assess whether it is or it is not too ambitious, one also needs to look at the track record or history. Moreover, I think if the next 30 years for BRI are anything like the last 30 years have been for China’s economic reforms and progress, this will be truly transformational for the 60 countries along the various corridors, and far beyond as well. So I would encourage everyone to be very open-minded about the BRI and its opportunities.” ◼

If the next 30 years for BRI are

anything like the last 30 years have been for China’s economic reforms and progress, this will be truly transformational for the 60 countries along the various corridors

www.globalcapital.comNews – Data – Opinion

For more information please contact: Mark Goodes, Email: mark.goodes@globalcapital.com • Tel: +44 (0) 207 779 8605

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GlobalRMB 11

引领者

“一带一路”的引领者双管齐下: 一方面努力将“一带一路”变成全球范畴的、包容性的倡议，惠及世界人民；另一方面，中国正在积极创造发展和投资机会。德国商业银行也将参与到这个历史性的项目中来，为中国”一带一路”倡议相关项目提供支持。

时至今日，“一带一路”倡议已经走过了五个年头，然而其全球影响力却已经非常广泛。全球参与”一带一路”的国家已经超过60个，中国的约束性投资也已超过千亿美元，该倡议的全球影响力在不断凸显。

尽管”一带一路”倡议对很多人而言意味难明，且大多数人倾向于认为这个倡议是野心勃勃的，不过纵观21世纪海上丝绸之路和丝绸之路经济带，中国只是致力于连接澳大拉西亚、欧洲和非洲，并以此来重塑全球贸易和投资版图。

德国商业银行部门董事会成员Roland Boehm在今年六月举办的中德”一带一路”峰会中强调，”一带一路”倡议背后的伟大愿景为”一带一路”带来了深远意义，值得称赞。

他还指出，“在纸媒成为快消品、短期爆炸性报道更加吸引眼球、人们对众多事件形成条件反射的全球大环境里，如果要为‘一带一路’倡议下定义，那么他本人认为这是一个长远的计划”。

德国商业银行近日发布的白皮书《中国企业的行为和认知正在变化》，预测了”一带一路”将如何影响中国企业下一阶段的转型和发展。德国商业银行指出，运营水平的不断提升以及更加牢固的发展框架将成为下一阶段发展的主要特征。也正是在下一阶段中，德国商业银行能够通过其规模优势和专业知识推动这一进程的发展。

中德之间的合作和联系是非常深入和密切的。早在1877年，正是德国地理学家费迪南·冯·李希霍芬(Ferdinand von Richthofen)首次提出了丝绸之路的概念。时至2017年，中德双边贸易已经高达1870亿美元，并且还在持续地高速增长。德国商业银行在两国贸易关系中扮演着关键角色，该银行承接了德国约30%的外贸业务结算工作。

随着”一带一路”倡议下投资的不断发展，所有运营细节和框架方案将在这个全新的、更加成熟的阶段发挥不一样的作用。事实上，”一带一路”倡议远不仅指贸易。在2016-2017年间，中国企业在西欧的并购交易共有近500笔，这其中有半数以上的交易额来自”一带一路”沿线国家。从这些数字可以看出，近年来交易情况基本稳定，并未出现急速上涨，这也就意味着中国和德国以及中国和欧洲其他国家之间的资金

流将保持稳定。中国公司的并购交易情况也在不断发生变

化。中国公司不仅仅致力于收购全球技术领先的企业，更希望在其相应的市场领域成为全球领先企业，并在”一带一路”沿线进行战略投资。公众对这两类并购意图持有不同态度。

“德国企业以及德国工商联合会认为中国的投资在德国非常受欢迎”。 Boehm提到，“中国投资者和德国投资者在设立公司时有一样的投资思路，即他们都偏重长期投资。中国投资者在管理业务以及人员方面是长期投资的典范，而且他们在这方面也有很多出色的成功案例，比如中国化工、先正达等”。

海外并购仅仅是”一带一路”大战略的一个组成部分。德国商业银行相信，下一发展阶段应为向”一带一路”倡议的项目提供融资以支持大范围的投资。随着”一带一路”范围的不断扩大，除了中国传统国有融资机构参与外，会有一大批银行参与到”一带一路”中来。融资需求量大概在30亿美元到80亿美元左右，这个业务量对于任何一个国家来讲都太大了，难以独自完成。

为更好地支持大规模并购以及融资活动，Boehm谈到，贸易基础设施会成为”一带一路”倡议的核心所在。因此，铁路及其他基础设施项目对于贸易以及”一带一路”的顺利发展至关重要。也正是基于这个目的，德国汉堡到中国郑州铁路的建成，使得陆地运输成为海洋运输切实可行的替代方案。

“我认为这仅仅是一个良好的开端，” Boehm强调，”我们德国商业银行是基于贸易建立的一家银行，对于我们而言，我们的目的是给贸易提供支持。我们感觉十分荣幸的是，德国出口业务总量的三分之一都是我们经手的，我们很乐意参与到这个业务领域，也很乐意能够提供支持。”

丝路基金蓝图

“一带一路”倡议能带来什么？这其中最成功的例子就是丝路基金。丝路基金董事总经理罗阳认为，中国一定会坚定不移地全力支持其所提出的口号。

“尽管‘一带一路’倡议始于中国，但是它带来的好处是符合全世界人民利益的。”罗阳表

示，”‘一带一路’是开放平等的，也是包容性的。我们非常欢迎各个国家的机构和组织能够参与进来。”

丝路基金是2014年正式注册成立的，也就是”一带一路”倡议提出一年之后。丝路基金的启动资本为400亿美元，今年，丝路基金又获得新增资金1,000亿元人民币（约合147亿美元），资金增长良好。罗阳提到，希望通过资金注入来与国际标准接轨，从而保证”一带一路”倡议

的成功。罗阳也指出，丝路基金的七位高管均有大型多边组织的工作经验，包括国际货币基金组织等。

丝路基金一方面为项目提供贷款，另一方面也为公司股权并购提供支持，这些交易能够支持”一带一路”倡议的建设，并推动国家间的双边和多边联系。丝路基金的目标行业是基础设施建设、资源和能源行业，罗阳同时也强调，丝路基金将致力于帮助投资国协调与被投资国之间的发展战略。

这对于德国以及德国与中国的未来关系都至关重要。尽管基于双边关系，两国之间的贸易能够持续增长，但是两国的合作不应仅仅局限于贸易往来。罗阳发现，对于丝路基金以及中国大范围的”一带一路”战略来讲，与一些区域性的倡议协调发展具有战略层面的重要意义。这些区域性的倡议包括俄欧亚经济联盟计划、欧盟投资计划（也称为容克计划）等。

“丝路基金投资与现存的合作性机制以及相关国家和区域的发展计划都能够协同发展，“

Roland Boehm, 德国商业银行部门董事会成员

12 GlobalRMB

引领者

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罗阳表示，“这也能够确保所有国家的利益，避免国家间的冲突”。

以往经验证明这是行得通的。在丝路基金第一笔投资中，也就是巴基斯坦卡洛特水电站项目中，丝路基金与世行集团下属机构国际金融公司进行合作。为支持项目发展，丝路基金和国际金融公司成为中国长江三峡工程开发总公司下属子公司中国三峡南亚投资有限公司的联合股东。

丝路基金同时也以有限合伙的身份参与了国际金融公司的亚洲新兴市场基金。这使得中国能够与日韩官方发展机构进行合作，投资到印度、孟加拉和缅甸的项目中。

美国也已经参与进来，通用电气与丝路基金共同出资5亿美元，将主要投资于“一带一路”沿线国家的基础设施领域。

德国与”一带一路”倡议

基于”一带一路”的倡议，欧洲正在寻求与中国加强合作。丝路基金已与欧洲复兴开发银行以及欧洲投资银行（EIB）下属的欧洲投资基金签署了合作协议。在欧洲投资银行的参与下，中欧共同投资基金成立。该基金启动资金为5亿欧元，致力于欧洲股权投资。该基金于今年七月发布了第一个投资平台，即“凯辉中型企业基金(Cathay Midcap II)”。罗阳同时提到，丝路基金还批准了其与德国保险公司的第一笔投资，标的为意大利项目。

罗阳在总结发言中提到，”一带一路”倡议也将引领美元体系之外的金融货币多样化，同时促进人民币国际化进程。

“人民币加入了SDR货币篮子，同时人民币还担当了国际储备货币的角色，这些都提升了人民币投资和融资的需求”。罗阳表示，“去年5

月人民币资本注入后，丝路基金也在积极探讨如何更好地利用美元和人民币，以此来强化多边货币投资和金融服务。”

关于德国，罗阳引用了中国国家主席习近平的表述。

“在2014年3月，国家主席习近平在其德国访问德国期间指出，中国和德国处于丝绸之路经济带的两端，同时也是”一带一路”倡议的两个主要经济体，更是密切的合作伙伴。”罗阳回忆说，“我们的合作符合两国人民的利益，也符合欧洲和世界的利益利用。丝路基金期待与德国的机构和企业深入合作。”

这就不得不谈到德国商业银行。德国商业银行于7月18号宣布其与中国工商

银行签署了合作框架协议，取得了可喜的进展。这也是德国商业银行在”一带一路”项目上签署的首个合作协议。德国商业银行承诺，将在未来五年支持50亿美元的合作业务量，促进”一带一路”倡议中相关项目的发展。

“能与中国工商银行成为合作伙伴，并对‘”一带一路’”沿线的项目给予支持，我们感到非常高兴。”德国商业银行亚太区董事会成员Nick Johnston表示，“通过这个框架，我们可以搭建我们的全球业务网络，涵盖超过50个国家，为我们”‘一带一路’”沿线的客户提供更加灵活的融资服务，以及投资和风险管理服务。”

两家银行将在贸易融资、公司业务员咨询、债务资本市场、资金筹措与融资、交易银行业务以及资产管理等方面寻求更为广泛的合作方式。

前路光明

Johnston提到，“在国际贸易以及参与机构矛盾不断升级的今天，中国参与到全球增长的所有

关键方面，体现了强大的实力，这让我们感到倍受鼓舞。”

“我认为中国有相当长期的计划，这一点是非常好的”，他表示，“这个计划实质上是在关注全球不断增长的贸易。同时，这个计划的包容性也很强，是一个所有人都能从业务中受益的计划。

“因此，作为一家有着150年历史、以贸易为基础、始建于德国汉堡的银行，我们将完全支持‘一带一路’倡议项目。”

“我们完全相信，‘一带一路’倡议将从积极方面重塑世界贸易。” Johnston表示，“同时我们也相信，我们两国处于‘一带一路’的两个端点，加上我们在国际贸易中的经验，我们将在上述发展中找准定位，发挥我们的作用。”

“一带一路”倡议越包容，其融资就会越加多样化，这也意味着有更多像德国商业银行一样的机构能够为项目发展提供支持和帮助。

Nick Johnston, 德国商业银行亚太区董事会成员

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绿色金融

绿色金融及其在 “一带一路”倡议中的作用

十年前，当世界银行为首个绿色债券定价时，全球资本市场第一次感受到了社会责任金融的潜力。随着中国日渐成为全球经济的领袖，这一金融分支的影响迅速扩大。当下，随着“一带路”倡议的日益发展，中国政府很可能将发展重心延伸至国内经济领域以外的绿色融资上。

中国金融机构并未止步于国内市场，而是已经开始拓展国际资本市场来满足其绿色融资的需求。中国主要发债商的此类交易已登上德国商业银行板块的头条。2017年11月，该银行帮助国家开发银行在欧元区首次发行了双币种绿色债券。这是在众多成果中，第一支由中国政策性银行发行的绿色债券，也是第一支绿色丝路债券。

这次交易表明，绿色金融已经成为“一带一路”倡议的核心，当中国成功地将绿色原则与全球标准统一后， “一带一路”倡议在发展和制定有影响力的绿色议程方面将发挥巨大潜力。

德国商业银行贸易事务负责人、国际商会可持续贸易工作组负责人Ruediger Geis将绿色金融标准和原则概括为三个“P”，既：人、地球、利润。

前两项原则是指全世界面临的人类活动的影响和环境问题，而第三项原则则强调将绿色议程与金融机构和企业的业务需求相结合。

“如果没有商业载体，绿色金融是行不通的。”Geis说道。

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员刘志勤也支持这一观点。他所在的研究院也负责研究学习“一带一路”的绿色金融议题。他同时补充强调，环境保护能够、且应该引导人们去理解绿色金融的目标。但是最终的目标是改变经济增长的方式，他将其定义为“绿色发展”。

对于什么是绿色金融，市场一直难以得出统一的答案，甚至存在一些明显的差别，例如，融资清洁煤是否可以被视为绿色融？中国认为可以，然而国际共识则持相反的观点。

刘志勤承认，过去中国只重视高速增长，这一直是界定绿色金融的主要因素。但当国家考虑到了增长模式背后的环境成本时，这种情况正在迅速发生变化。

“在中国，我们现在对绿色金融的理解越来越深，”刘志勤说，“我们明白这对中国的发

展至关重要。水污染对我们来说是一个严峻的挑战，我们尤为关注这方面的努力。中国人很快就接受了绿色金融这一概念，且毫无障碍。”

根据“一带一路”加强国际合作的计划，绿色金融在连结中国和德国经济中能够发挥重要作用，但前提是两国需要抵制构筑投资壁垒带来的诱惑。

“尤其在技术领域，每个国家、每个市场都应该是开放的，这样将没有限制，”刘说，“ 我们应该互相学习，分享技术。绿色金融是共享金融，所有人、所有行业都将获益。我们不应对部分企业设限，也不应对中德投资设限。”

Geis同时也指出了 “一带一路”与绿色金融概念结合可能遇到的困难。

“基础设施建设带来的温室气体排放占全部排放量的30%到40%，这也是困难所在，” Geis说，“但这正是关键点，如果我们用正确的处理方式，采用环保技术、共享技术和技术解决方案，将会大有益处。“

刘志勤表明，中国认为绿色发展将是“一带一路”倡议的生命线。

他说：“中国已经根据‘一带一路’倡议向许多国家伸出援手。对于这些国家来说，绿色发展是首要任务，对环境可行性要求非常严格，因此，对于‘一带一路’倡议和中国来讲，提升企业技术标准、满足环保要求是非常重要的。“

专家们一致认为，根据“一带一路”倡议，政府需要持续的投入，确保就绿色金融议题能够展开成功对话。欧盟已经走上正轨，并为绿色投资以及企业建立了框架。通过这个框架，企业可以报告其面临的环境风险、社会风险及治理风险。

最终，关键要素将是教育问题。刘志勤说：“ 要开展绿色金融，我们需要在

绿色教育上大量投入，教人们如何遵循绿色发展相关的规章制度。”

Ruediger Geis, 德国商业银行贸易事务负责人、 国际商会可持续贸易工作组负责人

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“一带一路”倡议债券

“一带一路”债券？ 资本市场以及其他方案

在“一带一路”项目早期，相关融资方案相对简单：中国政策性银行及国有银行为绝大多数“一带一路”项目提供融资。但是随着“一带一路”倡议取得了国际化的实质性进程，德国商业银行认为，资本市场将不负使命，发挥更加重要的作用。

到2016年为止，国家开发银行在”一带一路”倡议项目中未偿贷款高达1,100亿美元。中国进出口银行四分之一、总额约为900亿美元的贷款均为”一带一路”倡议项目贷款。尽管考虑到”一带一路”倡议项目涵盖60多个国家、世界三分之二的人口、且总投资额超过20万亿美元，但是贷款的缺口还是非常巨大的。

随着”一带一路”倡议的发展和演化，我们看到存在新的合作模式值得尝试，从而弥补上述缺口。这从丝路基金与欧洲以及其他区域的多边融资机构的合作协议中就可以看出。事实上，在以合作协议为标志的下一阶段中，如德国商业银行与中国工商银行签署的合作协议，”一带一路”倡议的关键点将为市场导向的融资问题。

“中国机构无法承担所有的融资，” 德国商业银行信贷解决方案的负责人、高级信贷交易员Ghislain Bahinii 表示，“我们现在正在进入下一个阶段，这主要是因为全球金融机构间的合作不可或缺，比如德国商业银行。”

德国商业银行有自己的资本市场专家网络，其业务范围已经超出欧洲，扩展到拉丁美洲、俄罗斯、独联体国家、非洲以及亚洲。德国商业银行认为，资本市场能够为”一带一路”倡议的融资提供丰富的解决方案，包括银团贷款、公司债券、甚至企业凭证贷款等。

德国商业银行亚洲DCM贷款负责人Chris-tine Chan指出，企业凭证债券已经越来越国际化。

“我们看到比如汉莎航空等公司为企业凭证债券提供了亚洲流动性。” Chan表示，“我们也看到一些欧洲的中国子公司也在关注这个市场。与银团贷款相反，这个规模稍小一些，从5,000万美元到大概2亿5,000万美元都有。”

在债券方面，德国商业银行亚洲DCM债券负责人Daz Zhang指出，欧元计价市场对中国发行商的吸引力日益增大，德国商业银行也帮助过几家中国的政策性银行和商业银行利

用这种流动性。 “我特别想和大家分享的是，这些交易中有

很多都属于绿色债券交易，且很多都是用于为‘一带一路’倡议项目融资的债券。”张说。

债券市场是有潜力的，能够满足许多融资需求，但Bahini提到，在为客户量身制作解决方案、满足不同客户的不同需求方面，我们仍然有很大的上升空间。

德国商业银行信贷解决方案全球主管Mohammed Lawal表示，开发更灵活的融资方案，关键在于对抵押品的使用。

“如果借款人只想通过贷款来借款，但你只能提供购买证券的投资方或者出借方，” Lawal表示，什么样的融资方案能够确保我们对接业务？其实可以这样，先以贷款的形式借给借款人，然后把资产重新打包，再以证券或票据的形式提供给投资者。”

对于国际银行和寻求参与”一带一路”倡议的公司来讲，人民币准备就绪也是一个重要工具。

早在2007年，中国批准了香港的离岸人民币市场业务，同时，也为越来越多的海外发行人打开了大门，允许其参与熊猫债券市场。全球人民币数据显示，2018年前8个月，联合发行的境外人民币债券为280亿元人民币，与此相比，熊猫债券定价则高达680亿元人民币，

更为重要的是，中国债券市场是全球第三大债券市场，超过11万亿美元，中国希望海外发行人能够更好地利用中国债券市场。中国内地监管机构已就交易所和银行间市场发行了”一带一路”倡议相关规定，并签署了一系列交易，其中包括”一带一路”倡议框架下菲律宾共和国的主权贷款。

随着中国市场向全球金融机构开放，以及”一带一路”倡议项目的融资成为全球资本市场不可或缺的一部分，德国商业银行将随时为发行人和投资者提供解决方案，以帮助他们更好地完成”一带一路”沿线的融资需求。

Mohammed Lawal, 德国商业银行信贷解决方案全球主管

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“一带一路”并购

中国已经成为全球并购的参与者，在发达国家和新兴市场都有着里程碑式的收购案例。2007年，中国在全球跨国并购交易中仅占1%，而到2017年，这一数字已经上升至14%。

德国也不例外。从汽车零部件到金属和矿业，再到电子产品，交易都已顺利完成。

中国商务部中德经济咨询委员会秘书处主任王凯指出，中德关系正准备进一步深入发展。

“习近平主席会见了默克尔总理，并指出了未来两国合作的关键事项”，王凯说，“第一要务是进一步促进互利合作，第二，两国必须在未来展示一种新型的伙伴关系。”

王凯补充说，这种新型的伙伴关系将建立在私营部门的基础上，尤其是两国企业家之间的合作，这将有助于“一带一路”倡议的推进。

中国早期海外并购是以美国为目标市场，而当前海外并购业务迅速发展。随着业务范围扩大，欧洲逐渐成为关注焦点，而德国则成为热点市场。

“我们越来越关注工业、医疗健康及环境保护等相关行业，在这方面我们与德国商业银行保持了良好的合作关系，在德国和中国都开展了业务。” 中国工商银行国际并购咨询顾问联席主管Joseph Ng说，“他们一直帮助在德的中国客户，同样地，我们也在帮助德国客户在中国开展业务。”

德国商业银行亚洲债券资本市场负责人Christine Chan说：“随着美中关系的日益紧张，德国会持续受到关注。”

“德国有很多领先的技术，而且我们也认为德国的中小企业与中国收购者的目标收购产业非常一致，” Christine Chan说。

市场参与者已经意识到全球政治正在进入一个新的收缩阶段。尽管“一带一路”呼吁开放和一体化，但各国对即将进行的各类交易也变得更加谨慎。

不过，对于“一带一路”来说，这可能并非坏事。

“我认为在金融体系中保持谨慎态度并非不好，” 德国商业银行亚洲企业咨询部负责人Martin Rock表示，“过去，我们曾做过一些业务，我们并不清楚其中的战略，或仅仅为了获得利润。这类交易目前已经不断调整，并且从体系中剔除。我认为，未来监管将更加严

格，而未来‘一带一路’概念下的并购交易在项目获批、拿背书、审核流程加速等方面将受到青睐。”

Rock补充说，“与‘一带一路’相关的并购交易未来仍将受到青睐，这也是因为这些交易能够展现中国企业的全球形象。作为一个国家，中国正在依靠‘一带一路’倡议寻求自身的发展。具体发展目标将根据不同行业特征而有所变化。对于中亚国家，如哈萨克斯坦，自然资源将列为发展的首位。而对于新加坡，高科技领域则更受关注。鉴于有不同的可能，并购前景不太可能转为负面。”

然而，不论国内外，投资人及目标企业都需要应对更为复杂的环境。在中国，监管机构开始收紧对外交易流量，抑制越来越多的投机性采购行为，因为这类交易行为的最终目的是为了规避资本管制。

德国也改变了其步调，在2017年7月实施了《对外贸易及交易条例》修正案。

“联邦经济事务和能源部修订了对外贸易法规，并扩大了审查范围，”国际律师事务所金杜律师事务所合伙人何伟说，“最初，只有非欧盟投资人进入到可能威胁公共秩序或国家安全的领域时才需要审核，这已经是相当严格的范围了。然而，现在他们明显扩大了审核范围，覆盖了信息技术、通信、云计算、软件及数据中心等方面。”

新的规定波及到了一些欧盟以外的交易，但至少中国第一起并购案，也就是收购飞机零

部件制造商Cotesa的收购案，在经过正式调查后，最终于2018年5月得到批复。

新的审查很可能会减缓交易步伐，还可能促使收购方重新考虑其持股规模。主要原因在于，25%的德国企业投票权被认为是国家安全是否被影响的敏感分界点，持股超过这一范围，将面临全面审查。

德国商业银行的Rock强调，尽管有新规定，但欧洲不会像美国那样实行明显的保护主义。

“而且我认为，仔细谨慎的审查敏感行业交易是很正常的事情，这并不是谈之色变的贸易保护主义”，Rock说，“我认为中国和德国的共同点在于长远观点。如果这种长远观点有助于促进贸易和投资方面的互利互惠，那么我认为谨慎审查是一种短期变化，将随时间推进而逐步消除。”

随着越来越密切的交流合作，“一带一路“使得位于新丝绸之路两端的德国和中国更加紧密地联系在一起。当然，“一带一路”倡议也为两国之间的沿线国家带来了发展机会。

“我认为有这样一些选择：人们可以在道路两端购买，也可以沿途购买所需。我认为中国企业应该开放看待这两种选择。还可以有这样一种场景，人们在‘一带一路’端点的发达市场购买市场头寸和技术，并在沿途的其他国家开发利用这些技术。在一定程度上，我认为中国企业也能够帮助德国企业在‘一带一路’的道路上发展更多的业务。因此，我对‘一带一路’倡议带来的合作和互惠前景非常乐观。”

“一带一路”并购： 审查严苛但热情不减“一带一路”倡议最初是以作为横跨三大洲基础设施建设的投资工具而成为全球公众关注的焦点，而这一情况很可能在未来几十年内持续下去。众所周知，全球基础设施建设存在巨大的资金缺口，“一带一路”将影响如中国和德国这些经济巨头间的并购趋势。

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贸易融资

贸易融资：最大程度利用“一带一路”倡议的机会“一带一路”倡议逐渐成为越来越复杂的、横跨大陆的全球网络互联经济体，它也承载着越来越复杂的业务和交易。贸易关系将这些经济体联系在一起，而这些贸易关系的质量也是“一带一路”倡议的实力最好的衡量工具。德国商业银行将通过一系列融资方案和工具发挥关键作用，助力贸易发展。

贸易的全球发展，尤其是”一带一路”倡议下不断增加的贸易量，能够通过像DHL这样的公司业务体现出来。国际贸易帮助企业进行商品的跨国界交付，也对整个全球贸易活动贡献了12%的业务量。

DHL咨询公司亚太区合伙人兼负责人冯德伦表示，DHL对”一带一路”倡议非常关注。事实上，在中国重庆开往德国杜伊斯堡的第一列火车上，DHL就有自己的集装箱。从那时起，这条铁路线上的贸易量稳步增加。

发展到今天，中国到欧洲这条路线上，日均有七趟铁路进行贸易运输。而国家发改委预计到2020年，该数字将达到接近翻番的数量，这将对关键路线上的全球贸易有重要影响。

“‘一带一路’倡议下所建立的铁路基础设施增加了贸易量，这对DHL等公司的发展来讲是重大利好。”冯说，”我们有很多公司以前依赖海运和空运，现在铁路运输已经成为新的运输方式。做个对比就会很清楚。一般情况下，从上海把货物运到杜伊斯堡大约需要35天到40天的交货期，这是海运方式。同样的集装箱，运到同样的港口，如果是铁路运输，通常只需要12天的交货期就可以了。”

“一带一路”倡议的成功也为其他亚洲制造强国，如日本汽车公司，提供了更好的运输网络。比起海运，”一带一路”的运输网络使这些公司的交货时间减为原来的一半左右。

还有一个有意思的例子，是发生在今年俄罗斯国际足联世界杯期间。

DHL一个做体育品牌的客户最近把一部分制造功能转移到了越南，对于这个客户的运输需求，DHL决定尝试用公路和铁路联合运输的方式，先将货物用卡车运往重庆，然后从重庆通过铁路运往莫斯科。这样大大节省了运输时间，也让这个客户在世界杯开始之前顺利收到了货物。

金融机构也在努力发挥作用，这也包括中国以外的其他金融机构。

作为发展性金融机构，非洲进出口银行已经深入参与到了”一带一路”倡议相关的项目中。非洲进出口银行全球贸易融资主管Gwen Mwaba说，这些贷款项目包括与非洲项目签约的中国EPC公司贷款项目、非洲大陆与政府合

资经营的石油天然气融资公司贷款项目等。如果中国企业主动将其生产产品转移到

仲裁成本较低的国家，如海牙或肯尼亚，并在那些国家建立工业园，那么在这种情况下，中国进出口银行也会参与进来，为这些企业提供共同融资。

这种制度也有利于中国企业在非洲的投标工作。

“中国公司在非洲大陆合同竞标的谈判初期，就让非洲进出口银行参与进来，我们帮助这些公司提升竞争力，让他们在谈判桌上更有话语权。” Mwaba说，“例如，他们可以放宽付款条件，不要求即期付款，非洲进出口银行会考虑融资成本，这样当他们投标时，比起那些要求即期付款的投标公司，他们就更有竞争力。”

对于德国商业银行来说，这些趋势表明，中国已经进入了经济发展趋于成熟的新阶段。

德国商业银行亚洲区贸易融资和现金管理主管Deepan Dagur说：“中国在跨境基础设施投资方面越来越志在必得，短期看，就是工程和相关产品的出口。随着这种建设的积累，接下来的五年、十年、或者二十年就会产生一个新的趋势。也就是低附加值制造业的出口会逐渐转向高端工程解决方案，这种高端工程解决方案是与基础设施相关的技术紧密联系在一起的。”

这并不是说中国企业进入”一带一路”倡议就没有任何不利因素。工业机械制造商福伊特（Voith Turbo）大中华区首席财务官朱金平指出，海外发展需要这些公司及时调整思维方式和心态。

“中国政府善于制定计划，并且有非常好的执行力。”朱金平指出，”正是基于这些，在过去30年里，中国政府为国内企业创造了一个稳定的增长环境。但任何事情都有两面性，我们公司在这种环境的呵护下，甚至忘记了当时进入国际市场时是多么幸运，但是接下来面临市场中的各种风险时，比如政治风险和社会风险，就会措手不及。”

他举了由于政局变化，马来西亚取消了与中国企业管道业务的例子来说明上述问题。

他也谈到，“从根本上看，我们其实是在

谈论不同的法律环境、税收制度、我们需要对冲的外汇风险、以及让中国出口信用保险公司为项目投保，从而防范掉所有的支付风险。”

不过，企业也越来越容易找到更多的金融机构，有利于降低这些风险。

Dagur提到，德国商业银行已经提供了一系列服务，帮助客户在”一带一路”倡议中寻找机会。第一类服务的主要范围是贸易融资和供应链解决方案，第二类服务的主要范围是融资和营运资本优化，第三类服务的主要范围是帮助企业将其部分现金管理业务外包，以降低偏远地区业务的运营及管理成本。

对于福伊特大中华区首席财务官朱金平来讲，最重要的是找到合适的业务顾问，确保业务运营的不利方面能够被抵消掉。而在这方面，德国有非常丰富的经验。

朱金平表示：“其实中国以及中国企业正在经历的这些，德国公司几十年前都已经经历过。他们国际化的过程还有海外运营是付出了代价来学习的。也就是说，如果看看中国人的性格和德国人的性格，就会发现中国人更愿意冒险，富有创业精神，速度也快，而德国人则非常有条理。这些个性在我看来其实是互补的。”

德国商业银行的Dagur把”一带一路”倡议所面临的巨大挑战与中国的过去联系在一起。他指出，1978年邓小平在中国启动经济改革时，没有人会想到未来30年以美元计的中国人均GDP能够有30倍的增长。

Dagur 说，“在人类历史上，没有任何一个国家能够在如此短的时间里经历这么快、这么大的发展。这绝对是史无前例的，更何况是这么大体量的国家。”

“有人会谈到‘一带一路’倡议太过激进。但我认为，当我们要对它做出评价，判断其是不是太野心勃勃时，不能忽略的是过去的发展路径还有历史。此外我也认为，如果‘一带一路’倡议未来30年的发展就像过去30年中国所经历的经济改革和发展那样，这将是‘一带一路’沿线60个国家真正发展和变革的机会，甚至会远远超出过去30年中国的发展。我希望大家能够对‘一带一路’倡议以及它所带来的发展机遇持开放态度。“

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