Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Vol. 4, COVID-19 Special Issue 3, 11-43, 2020

The behavioural economics of governmentresponses to COVID-19Gigi Foster1*

AbstractHow have governments around the world responded to the novel coronavirus first discovered in China’s Wuhanprovince in late 2019 (the cause of COVID-19 disease)? What has driven governments’ responses, and to whatextent can behavioural economics help us to understand the policies that have been enacted? In this shortpaper I examine the responses of four countries, mapped against media reporting, local context and viral spread,and discuss how core behavioural economics insights can illuminate the possible reasons for those responses.The paper concludes with observations about how these insights can be used for good by governments – inpredicting public reactions, and in setting and selling government policy – the next time that the world faces apandemic.

JEL Classification: H12; I18; Z18

KeywordsCOVID-19 — fear — media — salience — reference dependence

1UNSW Business School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia*Corresponding author: gigi.foster@unsw.edu.au

Introduction

The world has been shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic ina way unlike what we have seen in any prior global healthevent. What started as a local health anomaly in one Chineseprovince quickly became a world-stopping crisis affectingevery major nation in 2020. Industries from travel to man-ufacturing suffered acute, sudden disruptions due to politi-cal action to lock down cities and block free movement ofpeople and goods between countries. This experience pro-vides an unprecedented opportunity to examine political lead-ers’ responses to an acute global crisis in light of the wealthof insights from behavioural economics, and ask which be-havioural elements may have influenced public sentiment andthe ensuing political responses we have seen. Scientific re-flection on what has happened is a step towards enablinggovernments around the world to better prepare for the likelypublic response, and be better equipped to implement counter-measures to safeguard human interests, when the world facesanother pandemic.

This short paper proceeds as follows. In Part 1 I review thetimeline and nature of responses of several nations to the de-veloping coronavirus phenomenon, selecting geographicallyand economically diverse nations that saw varying degrees ofpenetration of the virus. A core feature of this review is tochart popular media reports about the virus accessible to thepublic in each country, and to discuss the chronological align-ment of those reports and other global and national markersof the pandemic’s trajectory with the country’s public policyannouncements. Second, informed by the results in Part 1, I

review a suite of well-documented behavioural phenomenaand outline how each of them may have played a role in gener-ating the public sentiment and subsequent political responseswe have seen. Part 3 concludes with a set of lessons from theexperience that humanity can take to its next confrontationwith a contagious global health threat.

No certainty about causality is claimed in any of this anal-ysis, nor is there a claim that the news reports and announce-ments analysed, gathered in good faith but under significanttime pressure, are an unbiased selection of all reporting deliv-ered during this period to residents of each country. Ratherthan focussing heavily on sample representativeness of mediareports or convincing econometric identification, I employ inthis paper mainly logical scientific deduction, with the goalof delivering policy-relevant reflection on what we have beenthrough, and guided by the assumption that the stylized be-havioural insights observed in many other contexts will likelyalso have played a role here. The analysis in this paper bene-fits from some, but not perfect, hindsight: while we now knowfar more than we did in January 2020 about this new virus, weare still learning. As the remaining uncertainty resolves overthe coming months and years, the picture of what we shouldhave done in response to the virus will also become clearer.

Part 1: Responses of world leadersto COVID-19

Leaders in developed and developing nations, with differentevolving trajectories of novel coronavirus infection and deathsdue to COVID-19, have responded in different ways to the

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new virus. Tables 1A-1D provide week-by-week timelines ofcountry-specific viral and economic trajectories, local context,global events, and media reports relevant to the virus,1 mappedto government responses for a selection of countries fromdifferent points on the spectra of economic development anddegree of severity of the virus’s attack: Australia, Thailand,Sweden, and the UK. The timelines run from mid-January tothe end of April 2020.

1a AustraliaThe trajectory of the virus in Australia was very muted duringthe window of observation compared either to epidemiolo-gists’ initial projections,2 or to the trajectory followed by thevirus during this window in many other developed countries.However, Table 1A shows that media reports about the virusthrough the month of March were increasingly frantic. Earlyin that month, headlines were offering grim infection anddeath count projections and signalling an imminent economictailspin, with stocks in “freefall”, tourism and the financesector reeling, and consumers panic-buying essential supplies.During February and the first week of March, governmentpolicy focused mainly on travel bans and announcements grad-ually upgrading the risk posed by the virus. On 11 March,Australia’s health minister said the country could not pre-dict the trajectory of the virus, and words and phrases thatstoke fear continued to appear in headlines over the ensuingthree weeks – like “chaos”, “panic”, “slaughtered”, “fears”,“go bust”, “hit the wall”, “falls off a cliff”, and “edge of aprecipice” – when speaking both of the virus and, particularly,of projected economic effects. In headlines focussing on thevirus itself, there is little evidence of comparisons againstexisting illnesses, death rates for different age groups, or otherperspective. At late as 13 March the country’s chief med-ical officer tried to urge calm, saying that COVID-19 was“a very mild illness” (an accurate description of most novelcoronavirus infections). However, between 16 March (therelease date of Imperial College London modelling predict-ing millions of deaths in the US and the UK) and 30 March,the government moved to gradually lock down the economy.After this point, reporting became less focused on stokingfear, and more focused on providing the public with informa-tion and tracking about the disease that had arguably takenup residence in their minds as the right thing to fear at thismoment.

1Headlines tabulated in Tables 1A-1D were selected from sources andaccording to the search algorithms detailed in the Appendix. Data on gov-ernment actions were gathered from the news sources from which headlineswere selected plus official sources, such as the UK government’s daily pressbriefing. Supplementary data on the actual spread of the virus and local con-text (drawn from local sources) and notable chronological markers coveredbroadly in worldwide news are also shown in each timeline. Social mediacontent, while undoubtedly important in influencing popular opinion, is morefractured by consumer subgroup than national newspaper headlines and liesoutside the scope of the present paper.

2E.g., theconversation.com/coronavirus-modelling-shows-the-government-is-getting-the-balance-right-if-our-aim-is-to-flatten-the-curve-134040 .

1b SwedenAs shown in Table 1B, the Swedish policy timeline starts to bevery active before mid-March, with multiple announcementsand proactive steps taken by the government, including state-ments on 12 March about the efficient allocation of testingresources and the potential negative consequences of closingschools and undirected testing. Instead of blanket instruc-tions directed towards everyone in the society at all times,specific instructions are provided in government messagingpertaining to certain activities and population sub-groups inthe days leading up to the release of the Imperial CollegeLondon estimates. The only large-scale policy act even in thedays immediately following the release of the ICL estimateswas the closure of senior high schools. Headlines do not seemfearful but instead mainly report facts, and as early as 24March focus on optimistic angles such as a reduction in homebreak-ins and “stories of progress to bring you hope”.

1c ThailandTable 1C shows that Thailand’s headlines were reasonablysparse until mid-March, focussing mainly on mask supplies,depressive effects on the tourism industry, and reporting ofsingle- and double-digit counts of new infections, while thegovernment announced reactionary steps until that time thatmainly targeted particular traveller groups perceived to be atrisk. With the exception of one plea not to stockpile food,the government did not make any reassuring statements dur-ing this period that may have helped calm its residents (andthe request against stockpiling may well have come acrossas desperate and itself sparked more panic). On 18 March,two days after the release of the abovementioned ImperialCollege London projections, new modelling was released thatprojected 400,000 infections in the country, and this was fol-lowed by a slew of government action a few days later towardslockdown. After that point, the headlines shift to describingthe orders and punitive measures one would expect in a policestate, and government policy focusses mainly on control ofthe population, with only two announcements about aid: onefrom the government purse, and a second one requesting helpfrom private donors.

1d The United KingdomHeadlines early in the window of observation in the UK (seeTable 1D) are reasonably controlled, presenting facts and ex-plicitly pushing against fear (“UK warns against mass panic”)but also increasingly suggesting that the government wasunder-reacting (e.g., the sarcastic headline “Now wash yourhands” on 27 February, and the near-simultaneous reportingin late February of dire warnings about the virus and reassur-ing statements from the government).3 15 March brought thetelling headline that a surge in the death toll “forces [Boris]Johnson to act”, followed the next day by the release of ICLestimates, and a slew of policy was released over the ensuing

3As late as early March, British PM Boris Johnson was still seen shakingpeople’s hands regularly.

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few days. Efforts against the virus were described in headlinesthroughout March using words like “fight, “army”, “battle”and “tackle”, as if the virus were an enemy that must be de-feated. On 19 March, the public was told that the Queen hadfled London “in fear” from the virus. In the ensuing daysthe headlines became more extreme, flagging the prospect ofmuch worse times to come and unlimited fines for breakingthe rules. From that time onward, the headlines read as if thevirus is a potent foe, and government policy became tighterand tighter. As late as 11 April, the British public were toldthat social distancing could be “indefinite”.

Part 2: Behavioural inputs to the globalresponse

Prior work has sought to demonstrate how the artful use ofbehavioural insights can assist in health policy-making (e.g.,Hanoch & Finkelstein, 2013). Table 2 on page S15 of Mat-jasko et al. (2016), reproduced from the UK’s BehaviouralInsights team, lists with a handy acronym – MINDSPACE –nine “behavioural insights” that have been tapped to informhealth policy in the UK. Matjasko et al. (2016) reviews sev-eral concrete examples, from vaccination nudges to lifestyle-related pre-commitment programs, intended to illustrate howthese behavioural insights can be exploited to improve “health,decision-making, and government efficiency” (p. S13).

The existing literature applying behavioural insights to op-timal health policy-setting has focused almost exclusively onsetting health policy in times without acute perceived publichealth threats. This is understandable, as the penetration ofbehavioural insights into policy-setting, aided by the adventof behavioural insights units within national governments, hasoccurred mainly over the past decade when few health emer-gencies have emerged requiring quick, high-stakes, welfare-maximising policy response. The COVID-19 crisis presentsan opportunity to ask how behavioural economics could be– or could have been – used to set health policy when a newglobal health threat is perceived.

I briefly review below four insights from behavioural sci-ence that are relevant to understanding the responses we haveseen over the past few months in these countries. Theseinsights are to do with the power of salience; present bias;reference dependence; and the power of fear.

2a SalienceWhen people’s minds are focused strongly on one item –which can be a consciously chosen or externally manufacturedcondition – then their decision-making tends to award moreweight to features and outcomes related to that item thanwould be true if their attention were divided across a numberof different items. While individual willpower plays a role incontrolling the salience of different items amongst the sea ofthoughts and external stimuli that an individual could focuson at any given moment, the external manufacture of saliencethrough messaging (e.g., advertisements) can be powerful, asindicated by the large advertising budgets of many companies.

Messaging also reaches individuals via news media. Saliencedrives behaviour through what has been termed in behaviouraleconomics the “availability bias” or “availability heuristic”(Tversky & Kahneman, 1973).

In the context of the coronavirus crisis, the salience ofthe virus phenomenon in the mind of the public is likely tohave increased together with increases in the focus given tocoronavirus-related stories in the media. Amongst the sampleof national news coverage reviewed in Part 1, Sweden’s newscoverage of coronavirus was more diluted than the Australianor UK news coverage, with a smaller fraction of reports inAustralia and the UK than in Sweden during the period ofobservation that were unrelated to the virus. This may havecontributed to a higher level of concern about the virus in theminds of the Australian and British publics than in the mindsof Swedes.

In 2006, Cass Sunstein suggested that due to the power ofthe availability heuristic to determine behaviour, significantaction on climate change would likely only be taken as “aresult of available incidents that seem to show that climatechange produces serious and tangible harm” (Sunstein, 2006,p. 195). Applying the same logic to the virus crisis, it isperhaps no wonder that politicians in the UK and Australiatook serious action, in name at least against the virus, giventhe near-constant barrage of reports of serious and tangibleharm produced by the virus to which the public was exposed.

2b Present biasOutcomes today matter more to individuals than outcomes to-morrow, an observation already accommodated in the classiceconomic concept of a discount rate and further explored bybehavioural economists (e.g., Rick & Loewenstein, 2008, whoremarked upon the comparative intangibility of future rewards,a concept applied subsequently to examine the likely long-term sustainability of individual behaviours aiming to containthe novel coronavirus [theconversation.com/hand-wa shing-and-distancing-dont-have-tangible-benefits-so-keeping-up-these-protective-behaviors-for-months-will-be-tricky-1364 57]). Inthe context of the coronavirus crisis, the immediate potentialfor loss of health and life – so clearly evident via photographsof the stricken from countries whose health care systems at cer-tain moments were overrun, such as Italy – will have loomedfar larger than any future potential losses from any immediateactions taken. This will have caused a disproportionate focuson adopting actions to avoid suffering and death in the present,as opposed to the future, even if those actions to minimize im-mediate costs would bring huge future costs in both economicand human terms.

By mid-April, commentators in Australia who suggestedthat the value of future costs of imposed restrictions might befar greater than the value of present costs avoided (includingthe author: abc.net.au/qanda/2020-20-04/12141184) were sav-aged in the international media (dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8237177/Gigi-Foster-Q-Economist-says-Australia-shouldnt-gone-coronavirus-lockdown.html) as “heartless” advocates

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of prioritising money over lives who advocated throwing oldpeople under a bus while letting young people go to the pub.This both reflects and is reflected in the extreme present biasin public sentiment at this stage in the crisis, despite the factthat the peak of new cases in Australia had come weeks previ-ously. Present bias was also on display in policy statementsin Australia, the UK, and Thailand: leaders in those coun-tries frequently foreshadowed no future policy walk-back asthey took draconian steps in late March and early April (e.g.,border closures in Australia, the postponement of all “non-urgent” surgeries in the UK, and the impositions of curfewsin Thailand) – implying that the present was all that mattered.By contrast, several of Sweden’s radical policy announce-ments, such as school closures and adjustments to sick payentitlements, were announced together with expiration dates.

2c Reference dependenceAll perception is relative. If no benchmark is provided to guidethe interpretation of information about a potential new threat,then people cannot understand the level of danger truly posedby that new threat. Comparisons to seasonal flu, death ratesfrom other causes, or life-years taken on average from (mostlyolder and often already sick) COVID-19 victims were mainlyabsent from mainstream media headlines from mid-Marchthrough the start of April in any of the countries surveyed.4

Instead, daily absolute tallies of virus-related infection anddeath rates became a regular feature of news reporting, a trendaway from perspective. Media reporting in three out of thefour countries reviewed in Part 1 contained very little bench-marking of infection or death rates except to other regionsor countries, some of which were doing worse in terms ofCOVID-19 infections or deaths but then were mainly depictedas counterfactual “there but for the grace of God” scenariosto be avoided.

Examples of this contextualisation of Covid infection/deathrates relative only to other places’ Covid infection/death rates,but not more broadly to analogous tallies due to other causes,began in Australia as early as March 5th when Chinese tal-lies were used as a reference point for potential Australiannumbers. These Covid-to-Covid contextualisations continuedwith comparisons across regions in Victoria and New SouthWales, and between Australia and Spain. Thai headlines toocontained comparisons of provincial rates and of the nationaltally to that of the rest of the world. On 30 April, a Britishheadline claimed ominously ”UK’s death toll becomes thirdhighest in world”.

A loss of broader perspective was also reflected in theuse as reference points of more severe threats than that posedby COVID-19, such as the 1918 Spanish Flu – whose deathprofile and virulence were clearly far worse than those ofCOVID-19 – rather than reference points that could mitigate

4More contextualized reporting did occasionally appear – e.g., Hodgson(2020) – but was overwhelmed by the narrow focus of other stories. Thiswould logically have been in part because editors believed that narrow report-ing focused squarely on the clear and present perceived danger would sellmore reads (as they say in the media, “if it bleeds, it leads”).

the fear. Changes to the public infrastructure were also ob-served, as virus-related information and advice came to dom-inate health ministries’ websites. Some of this informationwas ringfenced into separate virus-related sections, as exem-plified by the Daily Infographics of Australia’s Department ofHealth, commenced on 6 April, and Sweden’s Public HealthAgency’s creation on 29 March of a new website reporting onvirus infections and deaths.

At time of writing, virus-related content crowded out al-most anything else on the primary landing page for the healthministries in Australia, the UK and Thailand, whereas the pri-mary landing page of Sweden’s health ministry still led witha statement of that ministry’s core mission.5 The Swedishgovernment’s announcements throughout the window of ob-servation also made explicit reference to goals other thanminimizing the number of coronavirus effects, such as thegoal for health care workers to remain able to go to work(behind the non-closure of schools) and the goal of havingyoung people still able to continue their studies in distancemode. Such references remind the reader that other thingsare important, thereby maintaining some perspective on thepresent threat.

2d FearAs most broadly recognised in behavioural economics bythe term “affect heuristic” (Slovic et al., 2007), emotion isknown to be a powerful behavioural motivator. Emotionsare experienced in gradations of valence, from negative topositive, and guide our behaviour in general toward situationslikely to generate more emotions of the latter type and feweremotions of the former type.

In the pantheon of human emotion, fear holds a uniqueposition. A basic emotion that we share with many animals,fear floods the brain and suppresses any other emotion, forvery good evolutionary reasons. If a threat is truly and deeplyfeared, then humans will sacrifice hugely in the short run totry to avoid it. Controlling one’s fears requires significantsangfroid and is made more difficult when surrounded byfear messages. In this sense, fear itself is contagious.6 Thiscarries a clear implication: we are vulnerable to taking ac-tion that reduces deep fear, particularly when others are alsofearful. As stated in Frijters and Foster (2013), “In terms ofmanipulating people in the short run, the fear induced by thethreat of violence is perhaps the quickest and surest means ofmanipulation” (p. 175).

The novel coronavirus seemed to pose a violent threatearly in the window of observation, and fear of the viruswas magnified via the powerful lens of media. People weremanipulated by their great fear to such an extent that public

5The four government health ministries’ websites: health.gov.au/(Australia), gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-health-and-social-care (UK), moph.go.th/ (Thailand), government.se/government-of-sweden/ministry-of-health-and-social-affairs/ (Sweden).

6An interesting goal for future research would be to estimate the R-naught (healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number) of fear withina society.

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discourse regressed at some points to pre-Enlightenment lev-els, with sections of the population – including public figures– becoming vulnerable to superstitious beliefs7 and conspir-acy theories (e.g., that 5G networks were to blame for thecoronavirus8). Headlines in three of the four countries ex-amined here are emotive and alarmist, with some examplesof what appeared verbatim in the Australian and UK head-lines already reviewed above, and this should be expected tofuel fear.9 The following words stoking fear were used inThai headlines between February and March in reference tothe COVID-19 phenomenon: “reels”, “alarming”, “panic”,“crisis”, “outrage”, “anxiety”, “emergency”.

This fear did not have to be stoked by news suppliers.Perhaps taking a cue from their government’s more balancedapproach, Sweden’s news publishers used far more factual andobjective words in their headlines, with less emotive content –for example, on March 21st: “Number of coronavirus deathsin Sweden rises to 20”; or, on April 7th, “Sweden sees averageof just over 40 coronavirus deaths a day”.

Weakened by fear, unable to escape the salience of thevirus phenomenon, focused on infections and deaths happen-ing right now rather than anything that might happen in thefuture, and bereft of sanity-preserving reference points, thecitizens of three out of four of the countries examined in thispaper were sitting ducks for any policy prescription – pro-portionate and appropriate, or otherwise – that held out thepromise of reducing their fear of the clear and present dangerthat they so keenly perceived.

Part 3: Lessons for the future:How can we better safeguard humanwelfare next time?

The global response to the novel coronavirus pandemic hasarguably been far out of proportion to the true nature of thethreat.10 Many other diseases and illnesses that have a con-tagious aspect kill many more people every year, includinginfluenza, sexually transmitted diseases, and lung diseasescaused by smoking (the latter of which like fear is contagioussocially, not physically, but the contagion is no less powerful).As a consequence of our over-reaction to the novel coron-

7theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/as-coronavirus-spreads-around-the-world-so-too-do-the-quack-cures

8businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-conspiracy-5g-masts-fire-2020-4?r=USIR=T

9While not shown in the tables, technical-sounding phrases like “infectionfatality rate” and “R-naught” were frequently used in public parlance aboutCOVID-19. These phrases were hard for laypeople to understand, increasingthe uncertainty and stress to which they were subjected. This factor too mayhave made people more susceptible to messages of fear.

10For guidance on how to evaluate the effect on total human welfare ofthe economic lockdowns implemented by many countries in response to thevirus, see the following: clubtroppo.com.au/2020/03/18/has-the-coronavirus-panic-cost-us-at-least-10-million-lives-already/, internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/lockdowns-could-kill-more-people-than-covid-19/,quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2020/05/run-the-numbers-survey-the-folly/, andjapantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/05/29/commentary/world-commentary/six-deadly-lockdown-sins/.

avirus outbreak, we are likely to lose a total number of livesworldwide that is greater by more than an order of magnitudethan the number of lives we will have saved, even under theworst global projections (e.g., Imperial College London esti-mates, released on 16 March), which themselves have provenso far to be out by orders of magnitude.

The main lessons emerging from the analysis above aretwo-fold.

1. Fear of immediate violence is king. When a new threatemerges that is perceived to be large, imminent, andviolent enough, it is people’s fear that will drive theirresponses, and this fear will eventually influence gov-ernment policy. This is true even if the fear is unjustifiedby the extent of the real threat, and even if governmentswere initially working in a direction more proportion-ate to the real threat. The salience of the new threatboth reflects and is reflected by the extent to which itis spoken about in the media. Soberingly, the policyon which the government lands in response to this fearneed not be appropriate and proportionate to the threat:as observed on the British television series Yes, PrimeMinister, what is important for the government at mo-ments of crisis is to be seen to do something about thethreat, rather than to effectively fight the threat (as perthe Politician’s Syllogism11).

2. Perspective is key. Without independent referencesagainst which to compare new information, the public– and then resultantly the government – is prone tofurther mis-gauge the nature of a new threat. This canexacerbate and extend the contribution of the initial fearresponse and the omission of balanced evaluation ofthe appropriateness of the government’s response to thethreat. The in-built present bias of the public, fuelledby fear of the immediate uncertain threat, will lead toan inability to think beyond the costs paid or avoided inthe present moment.

These observations allow the creation of advice for avert-ing, in future global health emergencies, the type of globaldisaster that has befallen us as a result of world leaders’ re-sponse to the novel coronavirus pandemic.

First, it is vitally important for governments to controlthe fear levels in their populations. Sweden achieved this viaconfident announcements through the window of observation,reassuring the public that the degree of the health threat wasunderstood and being appropriately controlled. Sweden’snews media also did not play up the health threat, helpingto contain fear. Australia’s government, by contrast, wasnotable for subjecting its residents to periods of prolonged

11From Wikipedia (accessed 17 June 2020): “The politician’s syllogism,also known as the politician’s logic or the politician’s fallacy, is a logicalfallacy of the form: We must do something. This is something. Therefore,we must do this. The politician’s fallacy was identified in a 1988 episode ofthe BBC television political sitcom Yes, Prime Minister titled ”Power to thePeople”.”

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uncertainty about policy directions, fuelling worry. Ratherthan conveying a reassuring message of having the situationunder control, Australia’s PM sent the exact opposite messageon 1 April, by praying and committing the nation to God.When policy directions were announced in Australia, theyoften focused on economic restrictions or stimulus packageswithout directly addressing the degree of the health threat,leaving unaddressed residents’ growing fears about the virusitself potentially spiralling out of control.12

Second, it is important to provide perspective both withinand across time when communicating about the health threat,giving appropriate reference points and countering presentbias. Again, Sweden’s messaging referenced the longer-runfuture and the trade-offs faced in the present moment, such asthose related to keeping schools open. Australia by contrastexhibited an extreme present-oriented focus in its own policies,resorting at times to policy directions that seemed to toe theline of “short-run safety” but carried no clear connectionto reducing deaths or suffering due to the virus itself (e.g.,closing outdoor recreation paths).

There are mechanisms for achieving the above aims thatwill not be palatable to Western democratic nations, such asmedia control. Better-quality education systems may helpsomewhat in building the population’s willpower and capac-ity to think in terms of trade-offs, but only in the long run.Feasible preparations for the next pandemic that can be imple-mented today involve adding the above lessons to countries’public health emergency response plans.

Also, in the future when new health threats are perceived,economic policy should not be set exclusively by epidemiol-ogists, who tend to badly mis-estimate the death toll of newinfectious bugs (Nadella et al., 2020). Nations should ensurethat behavioural economists are sitting at the table when set-ting economic policy about perceived global health threatsthat are fast-moving and contagious, and therefore subject tobias in perception and decision-making.

Acknowledgments

This work benefitted from excellent research assistance pro-vided by Michael Baker and DJ Thornton. All errors remainmine.

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Appendix

Explanation of Headline Sources and SelectionAlgorithmWhile the use of a single unified algorithm to select newsheadlines across the four countries was initially sought as anideal, several factors made the creation of such an algorithminfeasible. To deliver sensible results, headline selection meth-ods for each country had to be sensitive to (1) the limitationsof online search tools, (2) the news publishing culture of thecountry, and (3) language. These three factors are discussedin more detail below.

1. Search tools. Identical use of search engines both ex-ternal to publications (e.g., Google, Factiva) and withinparticular news publications generated results that werenon-comparable across the four countries. This meantthat the use of search engine technology had to be cus-tomised to each country.

2. News publishing culture. Differences in news mediaculture had to be taken into account when selectingheadlines. For example:

(a) Some Australian publications blogged the coro-navirus story throughout each day, resulting ina profuse jumble of text, sub-headlines and keypoints. These blogs were not particularly usefulfor extracting the overarching message that is con-veyed by a typical news headline.

(b) Thai English-language news uses careful, non-inflammatory language that often simply servesas a mouthpiece for the government.

(c) Sweden’s news media is typically anti-sensationalist.(d) UK news media runs the entire continuum from

sober factuality to tabloid shrieking.

3. Language differences. Swedish and Thai headlinescould not be translated into English without the risk oflosing grammatical integrity and/or the emotional con-tent contained in the original messaging. For this rea-son, it was necessary to source headlines instead fromEnglish-language news publications for both countries:The Local for Sweden, and Bangkok Post and NationThailand for Thailand.

(a) In the case of Thailand, the two major English-language papers from which headlines were se-lected target the expatriate community, the inter-ested international community outside of Thai-land, and more highly educated Thais. The readershould keep in mind when interpreting the Thaiheadlines that mass news media aimed at ordinaryThais may have carried more powerful emotionalmessaging than conveyed in the tables in this pa-per.

(b) In contrast, in the case of Sweden, translatinga sample of headlines from the native Swedishinto English and comparing these with English-language news headlines from the The Local sug-gested that neither the content nor the emotionaltenor of the original Swedish language were lost intranslation, However, these translations resultedin uneven grammatical quality. The reader canbe fairly confident that the headline messagingin The Local displayed in the tables in this pa-per captures the emotional tenor of the broaderSwedish-language news.

Headline Selection MethodologyAcknowledging the caveats noted above, a set of principleswas followed to collect headlines from each country.

For all four countries, the initial headline search was madeusing the search terms “coronavirus” and “COVID-19”. Thisyielded many headlines each day for all countries. A headlineselected for inclusion in the tables in this paper was chosenon the basis of two subjective criteria: (1) it captured the mostimportant and relevant content of the day, and (2) it capturedthe ‘spirit’ of the emotional messaging across as many of theheadlines as possible. With respect to point (2), the readershould note that in the case of the UK, the rich variety of newsmedia makes it more difficult to single out the underlying‘spirit’ of the messaging. The tabloid press offers headlinesthat are typically more emotionally charged and sensationalthan, for example, The Times or The Guardian. The tabloidswere largely ignored for purposes of this paper, but the readershould be mindful of their wide readership in the UK.

1. Australia. Factiva search on The Australian-Online,The Age, The Age-Online, Sydney Morning Herald,Sydney Morning Herald-Online, AFR online (AustralianFinancial Review). Separate text search using the samesearch terms on the ABC News online site.

2. United Kingdom. Daily Google search of “What thePapers Say”, which yields actual photos of newspaperfront pages for the major UK dailies.

3. Sweden. Daily search on The Local.

4. Thailand. Daily search on The Bangkok Post and Na-tion Thailand.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 18/43

AUSTRALIA (Table 1a)

Date Events Headlines Government action

20/01/2020 First US coronavirus case reported in Wash-ington state. One week earlier, on 13 Jan-uary, Thailand had reported the first case ofcoronavirus outside China.

21/01/202022/01/202023/01/2020 Chinese city of Wuhan placed under quar-

antine.24/01/202025/01/2020 First case of infection in Australia reported:

a Chinese man in his 50s who arrived inMelbourne on a flight from Guangzhou onJanuary 19. Four more placed in quarantine.

“Coronavirus spreads across Australia amidscramble to find more cases” (Sydney Morn-ing Herald). “Coronavirus: three casesin NSW and one in Victoria as infectionreaches Australia” (Guardian). “Virus fearunsettles investors” (Australian)

Australia raises Wuhan alert to “do nottravel”.

26/01/2020 Australia considers evacuating citizenscaught in China amid lockdown.

27/01/2020 UNSW student becomes the fourth personin NSW to test positive. Sydney schools askstudents returning from China to stay away.

Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphysays there is “no evidence of sustainedhuman-to-human transmission outside ofthe Hubei province” and insufficient evi-dence to support quarantining passengersas they arrive.

28/01/2020 “Bad news on bad news: Virus could land$2.3b hit to the economy” (Melbourne Age).“Virus ‘spreads faster’ than SARS” (Aus-tralian).

29/01/2020 The S&P/ASX 200 closes below 7000, theAustralian dollar falls and bond yields reachthree-month lows.

The Australian Health Protection PrincipalCommittee (AHPPC) says “we should takea highly precautionary approach” and rec-ommends 14-day isolation for any personsin contact with a confirmed case.

30/01/2020 Last flight from Wuhan to Australia lands inSydney with no passengers showing symp-toms.

“Rebound for stocks as virus fears ease”(Australian).

31/01/2020 WHO declares virus outbreak an “interna-tional emergency”.

Foreign arrivals from mainland China nolonger allowed entry into Australia. Exemp-tions for citizens, residents, and their imme-diate family, but asked to self-isolate for 14days.

01/02/2020 Qantas says it will suspend service to Chinafrom February 9. The university regulatorrelaxes rules on attendance and online con-tent to help the higher education system re-spond to the international student crisis. AllMonash University students are asked tostay away from classes until mid-March.

“Australians told not to travel to mainlandChina due to coronavirus threat, border re-strictions tightened considerably” (ABC).“Lucky passengers checked for coronavirusafter escaping Wuhan on last flight to Syd-ney” (Guardian). “Fires and virus coulddrive nation into recession” (Sydney Morn-ing Herald).

Government issues a “do not travel” advicefor China. Department of Health releasesfirst epidemiological report on the virus inAustralia. Released regularly since then.

02/02/202003/02/2020 “Tourism braces for massive hit” (The Age).

“International student market faces $8b hole”(Sydney Morning Herald).

04/02/2020 Around 100,000 Chinese students planningto attend Australian education institutionsare stranded outside Australia.

“The real fight is against fear” (SydneyMorning Herald). “100,000 Chinese stu-dents stranded” (The Australian).

05/02/2020 Chemist Warehouse has run out of facemasks and some pharmacies are reportedlyselling hand sanitizer at twice its normalprice.

“Hand sanitizer price doubles” (The Age).“Top universities face losing thousands ofstudents, hundreds of millions dollars” (Syd-ney Morning Herald).

14-day ban for non-citizens arriving fromChina.

06/02/2020 “No reason for panic - yet” (Australian Fi-nancial Review).

07/02/202008/02/2020

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 19/43

AUSTRALIA (Table 1a - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

09/02/2020 The Australian dollar falls to 67.18 UScents, its lowest level since 2009.

10/02/202011/02/2020 “ASX reaches three-week high as risk ap-

petite rises” (The Age) ”No virus vaccinefor 18 months” (The Australian).

Brendan Murphy says there is no commu-nity transmission of the virus in Australia.

12/02/2020 “ASX within sight of record high as CBA,CSL rally” (Sydney Morning Herald).

13/02/2020 Tokyo Olympics organisers strongly rejectclaims that the 2020 games will be can-celled.

“Morrison extends China travel ban amidvirus fears” (The Australian).

Prime Minister extends travel ban on Chi-nese for seven more days.

14/02/2020 National academic union calls on universityvice-chancellors to guarantee the incomes ofcasual university teachers, many of whoselivelihoods are threatened by the virus travelembargo on China.

15/02/202016/02/202017/02/202018/02/202019/02/2020 180 Australians stuck on Diamond Princess

cruise ship evacuated to Darwin. 4 test posi-tive.

“Shopping mall giant Vicinity slashes profitforecast amid coronavirus crisis” (The Age).“Qantas slashes Asia flights” (The Aus-tralian).

20/02/2020 China travel ban extended for another week.21/02/202022/02/2020 “COVID-19 Has Been Contained in Aus-

tralia - No Evidence of Any Possibility ofContagion in the Community” (The Aus-tralian).

Health Minister Greg Hunt says the virushas been contained and that there is no rea-sonable threat of infection. He is backed byBrendan Murphy.

23/02/202024/02/2020 “Australian share market tumbles in broad

sell-off as investors fear coronavirus spread”(ABC).

25/02/2020 Companies across a broad segment of theeconomy face deteriorating outlook as virusimpacts extend beyond tourism and educa-tion.

“Billions wiped off market as contagionhits” (Sydney Morning Herald). “Coron-avirus to hit economy harder than bushfires:Frydenberg” (The Australian).

26/02/2020 “Coronavirus now spreading fastest outsideChina” (The Australian).

27/02/2020 Airlines, carmakers and beer companieswarn of tough times as virus spreads.

“Australia declares coronavirus will becomea pandemic as it extends China travel ban”(Guardian). “Disrupted flights and travelinsurance: how the coronavirus is affectingtravel for Australians” (Guardian).

PM announces activation of AustralianHealth Sector Emergency Response Planfor CV-19.

28/02/2020 “Coronavirus update: Latest news onCOVID-19 after Australia activates emer-gency plan” (ABC). “Australian stocks re-main in freefall as coronavirus panic drivesmarket down 10% for week” (Guardian).“Virus contagion will mean global recession”(The Australian).

29/02/2020 About 40 customers at a beauty salon inGold Coast exposed to virus by an infectedemployee who has just returned from Iran.

“‘Genuine panic’: Stocks shed $210b inworst week since financial crisis” (TheAge).

01/03/2020 Man evacuated from Diamond Princess be-comes first Australian to die of virus. Panic-buying of toilet paper, pain medicine andhand sanitizer at supermarkets.

“Australia records first coronavirus deathas authorities review Italy travel advice”(The Age). “Shoppers empty supermarketshelves as virus fears bite” (The Australian).

Government announces 14-day travel banfrom Iran.

02/03/2020 A NSW health worker becomes the first re-ported case of community transmission, astotal cases rise above 30.

“Coronavirus update: Australian cases riseabove 30 as expert warns more are ‘in-evitable’, travel advisory to Italy issued”(ABC).

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 20/43

AUSTRALIA (Table 1a - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

03/03/2020 WHO says world in ’uncharted territory’.PM calls for calm as virus prompts panicbuying at supermarkets. Australia’s largesttoilet paper producter moves to 24-hour pro-duction.

“Coronavirus update: People suspected ofcarrying COVID-19 could be detained un-der Australia’s biosecurity laws” (ABC).“Shoppers strip shelves of toilet paper, rice”(The Australian).

Reserve Bank lowers its cash rate 25 basispoints to 0.50%.

04/03/2020 Tenth case of virus confirmed in Victoria.Second Australian death – a 95 year-oldnursing home resident. Economist WarwickMcKibbon says up to 100,000 Australiansand 68 million people worldwide could diefrom the virus in a worst-case scenario.

“Coronavirus update: More COVID-19cases confirmed across Australia as shop-pers stock up on toilet paper, groceries”(ABC). “Panic buying lifts supermarketshares” (The Australian). “About 50 Qan-tas and Jetstar staff confirmed to have coro-navirus, Adelaide Airport cluster grows”(ABC). “Virus ‘could kill up to 100,000Australians’” (Australian Financial Re-view).

05/03/2020 Catholic Church changes the way HolyCommunion is given to reduce risk ofspreading the virus.

“Coronavirus travel slump putting eventand conference organisers at risk” (ABC).“Coronavirus: Australia warns millionscould become infected as China toll passes3000” (Guardian).

Prime Minister announces ban on South Ko-rea arrivals and new screening measures an-nounced for Italy. Treasurer Josh Fryden-berg promises more than $1 billion on stim-ulus measures to support small businesses.

06/03/202007/03/2020 Two die and thousands stranded on Grand

Princess cruise ship in Florida after 21 casesconfirmed.

“100,000 jobs at risk from virus outbreak,S&P warns” (Sydney Morning Herald).“Cairns feels the pinch as coronavirus turnscity into a tourist ghost town” (Guardian).

’We are prepared’: Brendan Murphy issuesvirus warning. PM offers to share expected$1 billion of virus health costs with thestates.

08/03/2020 “Sigma’s plea: don’t stockpile medicines”(The Australian).

AHPPC recommends restrictions on CV-19contacts and travellers from listed higher-risk countries; Australian Government se-cures additional 54 million face masks.Deputy chief medical officer Paul Kelly askspublic not to panic-buy medical supplies.

09/03/2020 Third virus fatality. Stock markets plungeon global recession fears. Australian stockmarket down 7.33% in worst day sinceGFC.

“Recession coming: Westpac’s Evans” (TheAustralian). “Oil collapse wipes $140bnfrom ASX” (The Australian). “Alarm bells:Oil price crash is a worrying sign for thehealth of the world economy” (The Age).“‘Signs of stress’: Banks smashed in marketrout” (The Age).

Australian government stimulus packagepromises financial support ‘as fast as possi-ble’.

10/03/2020 WHO declares a pandemic. Australia’s con-firmed cases passes 100. Major retailersdemand rent reductions and threaten to with-hold payments. Qantas cuts approximatelya quarter of its international flight capac-ity by suspending routes and using smalleraircraft.

“Coronavirus fears prompt Qantas to slashservices over next six months” (ABC).“Kikki K collapses into receivership with450 jobs at risk” (The Age). “‘Survival ofthe fittest’: Qantas cuts more flights, warnsairlines will collapse” (The Age).

11/03/2020 MONA cancels winter arts festival. Con-sumer confidence is at its lowest level infive years.

“Australia’s stock market takes fresh dive ascoronavirus cases rise to 122” (Guardian).“Universities face financial crises as enrol-ment cutoffs loom” (Sydney Morning Her-ald).

AHPPC provides recommendations forhealthcare and age care workers. Italy ar-rivals blocked. Health minister says Aus-tralia cannot predict how many will die fromvirus. Commonwealth Government unveilsa $2.4 billion health package. Governmentwidens travel ban to include Italy.

12/03/2020 CEO of Grattan Institute, Dr John Daley,says Australia must either close its bordersor shut down a significant amount of com-munity activity, or it will go the way of Italy.Graham Turner, founder of Flight Centre,tells government and public to stop panick-ing, as the company closes 100 stores. Aus-tralian share market has its worst day sincethe GFC as the US bans travel from Europe.

“Billions of dollars pumped intocoronavirus-hit economy in bid to staveoff recession, Scott Morrison announces”(ABC). “Virus ‘first wave’ may hit 20per cent of NSW: Chief health officer”(The Australian). “ASX plunges 7.4pcas US travel ban sparks recession fears”(Australian Financial Review).

PM announces $17.6 billion stimulus pack-age: $750 cash payments to those on exist-ing Commonwealth payments, investmentincentives for almost all businesses, and sup-port for small businesses who employ ap-prentices.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 21/43

AUSTRALIA (Table 1a - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

13/03/2020 Justin Trudeau’s wife tests positive. Homeaffairs minister Peter Dutton confirms hehas tested positive. Global shortage of testkits. Telstra orders its 20,000 nationwidestaff to work from home.

“Gatherings of more than 500 people to becancelled, Australians urged not to traveloverseas amid coronavirus fears” (ABC).“Fear of the unknown: Sharemarkets inchaos as panic takes over” (The Age). “Au-thorities warn first wave of infections inNSW to top 1.5 million people” (SydneyMorning Herald). “Australia bans massgatherings for first time in a century” (Syd-ney Morning Herald).

AHPPC issues guidelines for public gather-ings, testing, and social distancing. Bren-dan Murphy urges calm and says virus is avery mild illness. The federal governmentand states agree to split the costs of virushealthcare, expected to be approximately $1billion.

14/03/2020 Australia has 50 new cases in a single dayfor the first time.

“Coronavirus update: Australia passes 200cases, Apple closes stores, Spain to putcountry under lockdown” (ABC). “Theywould have been slaughtered’: Coronaviruscrisis causes capital freeze for Australianbusiness” (Guardian). “Retirement savingsat risk amid market uncertainty” (SydneyMorning Herald).

15/03/2020 Global shortage of virus test kits hits Aus-tralia as other nations limit exports. Wool-worths launches a dedicated shopping houreach day for the elderly and disabled.

“NSW bans gatherings of more than 500”(The Australian). “Coronavirus quarantineenforced for all people entering Australia,lockdowns on the table” (ABC). “Australiain lockdown; virus numbers grow, hit toeconomy gets larger” (The Age). “Airlineswill go bust because of quarantine rule:Flight Centre CEO” (Australian FinancialReview).

Government orders all international arrivalsto self-isolate for 14 days, regardless of theirpoint of origin. Requirement is to be en-forced with fines and/or prison time. NSWbans outdoor gatherings limited to 500 peo-ple.

16/03/2020 Imperial College London issues its Report 9:estimates 510,000 deaths in UK and 2.2 mil-lion in the US in the absence of mitigationstrategies. ASX200 falls 9.7%, its steepestone-day fall in 33 years.

“Lockdown Begins” (The Age). “DowJones plunges 13 per cent as coronavirussell-off intensifies on Wall Street andDonald Trump warns of US recession”(ABC). “Australian government signalssecond-round stimulus package as markettumbles 9.7%” (Guardian).

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews declaresState of Emergency, urges federal govern-ment to restrict entry by travellers from theUS.

17/03/2020 Private schools in Victoria close despite theadvice of the state’s Chief Health Officer,who says school closures are ineffective inminimising the spread of the virus.

“Coronavirus update: Qantas and Jetstarslash international flights as Tom Hanksreleased from hospital” (ABC). “Public instate of uncertainty as state of emergencygrips city” (The Age). “Tourism falls off acliff as losses climb to $3b a month” (Syd-ney Morning Herald). “Government urgesAustralians overseas to return home as bor-ders close around the world” (Guardian).

Self-isolation required for overseas trav-ellers, cruise ships blocked for 30 days.DFAT advises Australians overseas to returnhome as soon as possible. The NSW govern-ment unveils a $2.3 billion package to boosthealthcare capacity, including purchase ofequipment and increasing ICU space.

18/03/2020 Virgin suspends international flights andcuts domestic flights by 50%. The govern-ment announces a $750 million aid pack-age for the airlines in the form of waiver ofindustry fees and levies. Even so, Qantassuspends all international flights and standsdown two-thirds of its workforce, while Vir-gin suspends all international flights fromMarch 30 to June 14. University of Syd-ney’s 10,000 staff encouraged to work fromhome.

“Airlines given $750m handout” (The Age).“WA Government urges people to avoid in-terstate travel as coronavirus cases increase”(ABC). “Do not travel overseas – Morrisonannounces new overseas travel restrictions”(The Australian). “Australians fearing foreconomy over health” (The Age). “Qan-tas stops international flights, stands downworkers” (The Australian).

Human biosecurity emergency declared bythe Governor-General. AHPPC recom-mends the continuation of a 14-day quaran-tine requirement for all returning travellers;DFAT raises travel advice for all overseasdestinations to Level 4 ‘Do Not Travel’.Prime Minister announces strict rules fornursing home visits: maximum 2 visitors ata time and no one under age 16.

19/03/2020 Number of cases in NSW passes 300. Someeconomists warn that the housing marketcould be facing a 20% price fall if the reces-sion lasts more than six months. Australiandollar declines in value to US55 cents, be-fore recovering to close above 58 cents.

“The Australian dollar hits lowest levelsince 2002, ASX extends fall” (ABC). “Aus-tralia closes borders to all visitors amid coro-navirus pandemic” (Sydney Morning Her-ald). “Australian housing market will hit thewall in coronavirus recession, experts say”(Guardian).

Indoor gatherings limited to 100 people.RBA cuts cash rate to 0.25%. PM an-nounces that Australia will close its bor-ders to non-citizens and non-residents as of9pm tomorrow night. Tasmania effectivelycloses borders to mainland Australia.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 22/43

AUSTRALIA (Table 1a - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

20/03/2020 NAPLAN (national testing of schoolchil-dren) cancelled for the year. The Australiandollar closes lower again, at just above 57US cents. This was to be the trough.

“Market meltdown ‘the worst ever’” (TheAustralian). “Queensland COVID-19 casetally rises by 40 to 184” (ABC). “Borders toshut as PM tries to curb virus spread” (TheAge). “’We are facing extinction’: Tourism,hotel sector calls for $900m in relief” (Syd-ney Morning Herald).

Victorian government announces a $1.7 bil-lion support package for businesses.

21/03/2020 All of Sydney’s eastern beaches to closeon Sunday. Virus cases climb across AsiaPacific as lockdowns in US widen.

“Economy on the edge of a precipice” (TheAge). “Eerie quiet fills deserted malls”(The Age). “PM prepares nation for sub-urban lockdowns” (Sydney Morning Her-ald). “Iconic Sydney beaches closed as re-strictions enforced amid coronavirus crisis”(The Age).

Borders closed to non-citizens and resi-dents, enforced self-quarantine for citizens.Qld, WA, NT and SA close borders to non-essential travellers.

22/03/2020 Total number of cases now exceed 1,000. “Australia’s coronavirus cases surge past1000 as NSW records most number of in-fections” (Sydney Morning Herald). “ScottMorrison calls for all non-essential travel tobe avoided” (Sydney Morning Herald).

Second tranche of stimulus measures an-nounced, worth AUD$66.2 billion, includ-ing cash transfers to businesses of up to$100,000, an effective doubling of the Job-Seeker payment or those out of work to$1100 per fortnight, and the introduction ofa Coronavirus Supplement of $550 per fort-night for those who have seen a reductionin their income. People will be allowed tax-free superannuation access up to $10,000.

23/03/2020 Number of new cases continue to rise, to364 from 281 yesterday. S&P/ASX 200closes at 4402.50, down 38% from its highfrom its peak on February 20.

“NSW schools stay open but parents urgedto keep children at home to contain spreadof coronavirus” (ABC). “Australian sharesplunge again as businesses shut and USCongress bickers over coronavirus stimuluspackage” (ABC). “’Worst since 1932’: Twomillion Aussies face unemployment queue”(The Age).

Pubs and clubs closed, restaurants allowedtake-away only.

24/03/2020 430 new cases – this will prove to be thesecond highest daily tally of the outbreak.

“Coronavirus update: Morrison announcesfurther restrictions, Australian cases pass2,000, Trump lashes out as US death tollsurges” (ABC). “Job losses set to rival theGreat Depression” (Sydney Morning Her-ald).

Ban on Australians travelling overseas.School-based immunisation programs, withthe exception of the delivery of meningo-coccal ACWY vaccine, are paused.

25/03/2020 Global death toll passes 20,000. Global con-firmed cases top 400,000. Travellers arriv-ing at Sydney airport on Sunday given in-correct advice about self isolating.

“Coronavirus cases in NSW rise past 1,000,Border Force boss blames State Govern-ment for Ruby Princess bungle” (ABC).“Coronavirus restrictions tipped to send Aus-tralian house prices tumbling” (Guardian).“No parties, no outings, no gatherings... noexcuse – Victorian Premier on COVID-19update” (The Australian).

PM establishes National COVID-19 Coor-dination Commission as a strategic advi-sory body providing advice to mitigate thesocial and economic impacts of the pan-demic. Temporary suspension of all non-urgent elective procedures in both the pub-lic and private sector. Progressive scale-upof social distancing measures; aged careproviders limit visits to a maximum of twovisitors at one time per day.

26/03/2020 US Senate passes massive $US2.2trn stimu-lus bill.

“No passengers off boats in Sydney untilfurther notice, Berejiklian says” (The Aus-tralian).

Expanded testing criteria. Restricted move-ment into some remote areas. NSW Na-tional Parks closes campgrounds, visitorcentres, and high-visitation areas. Someother states follow suit. Many local munici-palities close local parks in following week.

27/03/2020 Myer announces it will close stores andstand down 10,000 staff due to virus crisis.

“Eastern Australia’s coronavirus hotspots re-vealed: map shows affluent Sydney suburbshard hit” (Guardian). “Coronavirus infec-tions in NSW rise to 1,405, but new casesdrop for second consecutive day” (ABC).“Coronavirus crisis job losses will raise mort-gage stress more than the GFC did: analysts”(ABC).

Data released by the Victorian and NSWhealth departments reveals that Sydney’seastern suburbs and Melbourne’s affluent re-tirement suburbs have suffered a relativelyhigher incidence of infections.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 23/43

AUSTRALIA (Table 1a - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

28/03/2020 460 new cases today, which will turn out tobe the peak. Collapsed stationery retailerkikki.K closes its 59 stores. David Jonescloses its small-format fashion stores, whichinclude Country Road, Mimco and Witch-ery, throwing 5,000 out of work.

Mandatory isolation in hotels for travellers.

29/03/2020 Australia records 3400 cases of the viruswith median age of 48. Public health expertscall on the Prime Minister to release themodelling that is being used as the basis forpolicy decisions.

“Queensland records second coronavirusdeath, as Government bans house partiesand considers new hospitals” (ABC). “So-cial media awash with fake treatmentsfor coronavirus” (Sydney Morning Herald).“‘Show us virus modelling’, experts ask PM”(Sydney Morning Herald).

Further AUD$1.1 billion package an-nounced providing rebates for tele-health,funding for mental health services and do-mestic violence prevention, and additionalcash for emergencies.

30/03/2020 Home furniture retailer Nick Scali closes its58 stores. New virus cases decline sharply,from 460 on March 28 to 265 on March 30.The share market rallied, with the S&P/ASX200 rising 7%.

“Over-70s ordered to stay at home” (TheAge). “City given hope as rate of infectionsbegins to ease” (The Australian). “COVID-19 has put jobs in danger. How many work-ers don’t have leave entitlements?” (ABC).“Rental crisis as landlords wonder who willpay” (The Australian). “Virgin seeking$1.4bn bailout to keep flying” (The Aus-tralian).

Special provisions applied to vulnerablepeople in the workplace. Additional re-gional social distancing measures. Australiaannounces AUD$130 billion “Jobkeeper”wage subsidy package. The package deliv-ers $1500 per fortnight to employers to paytheir workers, and is due to last for 6 months,back-dated to the beginning of March 2020.The Prime Minister orders people over age70 to stay home and restricts all outdoorgatherings to two people.

31/03/2020 Two border force officers reportedly testpositive as Australian deaths rise to 19. Re-tail association to press government to in-clude more casuals in Jobkeeper payment.Australian airlines ask government for up toAUD$5.6 billion to survive.

“ASX delivers best gains on record” (Syd-ney Morning Herald).

Health Minister Hunt says government willnot allow private hospitals to collapse as aresult of not being able to conduct electivesurgeries during the virus crisis.

01/04/2020 Australian virus deaths rise to 21 as ex-health professionals urged to rejoin work-force. The Seven Network orders staff totake 20% pay cuts. Uniqlo closes all its Aus-tralian stores and stands down about 1,500staff.

“Coronavirus update: Spain’s death tollhits 10,000, Australia passes 5,000 con-firmed cases, PM announces free child care”(ABC). “Plan to move infected prisonersinto private hospitals” (Sydney MorningHerald). “Tracking the devastating march ofCOVID-19 across NSW” (Sydney MorningHerald). “Scott Morrison prays for Aus-tralia and commits nation to God amid coro-navirus crisis” (Guardian).

The Australian Government announces itwill provide free childcare services to fami-lies. Cost AUD$1.6 billion. Health Minis-ter Hunt says prisoners with virus will bemoved into private hospitals.

02/04/2020 Number of new cases in NSW drops below100.

“Worldwide covid-19 cases to reach onemillion in the coming days” (The Aus-tralian).

03/04/2020 ASX200 finishes its best week since 2011. “Scott Morrison says the coronavirus curveis flattening. Are we turning the corner?”(ABC). “Virgin Australia is running out ofcash and facing downgrades as coronavirusgrounds planes, costs jobs” (ABC).

Chief medical officer says global casescould be 5-10 million.

04/04/2020 Australia’s death toll from the virus reaches30.

“‘Australia won’t look the same’: ANZ’s El-liott warns coronavirus impact will be gen-erational” (Sydney Morning Herald).

Deputy chief health officer, Paul Kelly, ad-vises the broader public not to wear facemasks, partly because of supply limitationsand partly because incorrect use can makeit more dangerous for the wearer.

05/04/2020 H&M closes its 49 Australian stores andstands down 1,300 staff.

“Police launch criminal probe into RubyPrincess” (The Australian). “’Police state’:Stopping the virus with the full brunt of thelaw” (The Age). “H&M follows the fashion– and shuts” (The Australian).

NSW Police launch criminal investigationinto whether Ruby Princess broke the Biose-curity Act.

06/04/2020 University of Sydney simulation finds thatCOVID-19 cases would peak by mid-Apriland fall to almost zero by July. Number ofnew cases falls for the sixth consecutive day.

“New coronavirus cases in Australia couldnumber almost zero by July, modelling sug-gests” (Guardian).

Department of Health announces that 2432people have recovered from virus. Beginsreleasing daily infographics.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 24/43

AUSTRALIA (Table 1a - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

07/04/2020 Flight Centre to close 428 stores by the endof July.

“Police fine learner driver in coronaviruslockdown blitz” (The Age). “Flight Centreto shut 428 stores” (The Age). “RBA keepsrates on hold” (The Australian). “PM opensdoor to lifting restrictions” (The Australian).

08/04/2020 Australia’s death toll reaches 50 amid datasuggesting that the infection growth rate isslowing. Property research firm, CoreLogic,says that more than 45% of the residentialproperties that went to auction last weekendwere withdrawn from sale.

“Migrant workers and international studentsstuck in Australia due to coronavirus travelbans” (ABC). “Half nation’s businesses letstaff go, cut hours” (The Age). “A plagueon housing” (The Age).

09/04/2020 General practice clinics across Australia areexperiencing a steep decline in patient num-bers as virus causes people to avoid go-ing to the doctor for non-virus-related ill-nesses. Australian Retailing Associationencourages shopkeepers to open if they cancomply with social distancing requirements.

“Virgin Australia suspends domestic flightsduring coronavirus crisis” (ABC). “Retail-ers encouraged to start reopening stores”(The Age). “Queensland to bring in newcoronavirus restrictions, meaning even resi-dents will need a special permit to enter thestate” (ABC).

Air crew on international flights will be re-quired to self-isolate at their place of resi-dence (or hotel) between flights or for 14days, whichever is shorter. Health ministerHunt says the curve if flattening but Easterweekend will be critical.

10/04/2020 “Victorian government announce $40.2 mil-lion support package for those at risk offamily violence” (ABC). “Pandemic couldpush half a billion into poverty: report” (TheAge). “A winter flu season means Aus-tralia’s coronavirus lockdown could last formonths” (ABC).

11/04/2020 US deaths pass 20,000.12/04/2020 New cases continue their downward trajec-

tory, with only 21 in the latest 24 hours com-pared with 89 the previous day.

“Health Minister ‘cautious’ as NSW recordsseven new coronavirus cases” (SydneyMorning Herald).

Victorian government extends state of emer-gency for another month.

13/04/2020 Virgin Australia grounds all its aircraft,stands down thousands of employees andenters a trading halt.

“Andrews extends state of emergency” (TheAge).

Tasmanian government closes the NorthWest Regional Hospital and North West Pri-vate Hospital for cleaning, and put the entirestaff of over 1000 people and their familiesinto quarantine.

14/04/2020 NAB’s Business Confidence Index drops toits lowest level on record.

“ASX lifts, while collapse in business confi-dence points to ’unprecedented’ recession:NAB report” (ABC). “IMF forecasts bigcoronavirus growth hit amid world in a‘great lockdown’” (ABC). “Unemploymentto hit 10 per cent: Treasury” (The Age).

15/04/2020 US virus deaths pass 30,000. A WesternAustralian man becomes the first person inAustralia to be jailed for breaking a self-isolation directive. IMF predicts the Aus-tralian economy will shrink 6.7% this year,before a rebound in 2021.

IMF predicts deep recession, V-shaped re-bound (Australian Financial Review).

Prime minister says that pay cuts for him-self, ministers and senior public servants arenot under consideration.

16/04/2020 “Downturn will hit us like truck: Morrison”(The Australian). “Business push to reopenin May” (Australian Financial Review).

AHPPC provides advice on reducing the po-tential risk of virus transmission in schools.

17/04/202018/04/2020 “Payne calls for international COVID-19

review” (The Australian).Government pushes for an independentglobal review of the origins and initialspread of the virus.

19/04/2020 The Grattan Institute forecasts that between1.9 and 3.4 million people (14% and 26%of the work force respectively) will be un-employed as a result of the virus.

“Sydney Airport traffic plunges 97pc” (TheAustralian). “Jobless shock ‘worst sincedepression’ despite JobKeeper” (AustralianFinancial Review).

Victorian Premier Andrews says the 4,000new ICU beds his government announcedless than 3 weeks ago would likely not beneeded.

20/04/2020 Number of new cases drops to 13. “Virgin enters administration” (The Aus-tralian). “Beijing accuses Australia of pan-dering to US in ‘anti-China crusade’” (Aus-tralian Financial Review).

21/04/2020 “Millions lose work as jobs pain tipped tolast years” (The Age).

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 25/43

AUSTRALIA (Table 1a - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

22/04/2020 “800,000 people lose their jobs in threeweeks” (The Age). “Petrol profits highestin 10 years” (The Australian). “Home salesplunge as buyers sit out” (The Australian).

23/04/202024/04/202025/04/2020 “Australia on track for ‘cautious’ ‘easing’”

(The Age).26/04/202027/04/2020 Bondi Beach reopens as NSW restrictions

are eased.Brendan Murphy says government has noaccess to any data from the new virus appand it will “never be used for any other pur-pose” than contact tracing.

28/04/202029/04/2020 University researchers present ‘controlled

adaptation’ or ‘elimination’ strategies to theHealth Minister, saying continuing strictlockdowns until June would result in 50%higher economic growth afterwards.

“Support for lockdown until June” (Mel-bourne Age). “Wesfarmers flags closures inTarget overhaul” (Sydney Morning Herald).

PM says travel to New Zealand is a possi-bility. Paul Kelly warns there could be asecond wave of infections as restrictions arelifted.

30/04/2020 Retail property owners report steep declinesin sales at their shopping centres in theMarch quarter, and predict worse is to come.

“Property trusts sound alarm on dire out-look” (The Australian).

SWEDEN (Table 1b)

Date Events Headlines Government action

20/01/2020 First US coronavirus case reported in Wash-ington state. One week earlier, on 13 Jan-uary, Thailand had reported the first case ofcoronavirus outside China.

21/01/202023/01/2020 Chinese city of Wuhan placed under quar-

antine.24/01/202025/01/2020 Death toll hits 41 as doctor dies from virus

in China.26/01/202027/01/202028/01/202029/01/202030/01/2020 SAS cancels all flights to and from China.31/01/2020 WHO declares virus outbreak an “interna-

tional emergency”. Sweden’s first case ofthe virus is confirmed in Jonkoping – awoman in her 20’s recently returned fromWuhan.

“First case of coronavirus confirmed in Swe-den” (The Local). “Sweden to airlift citi-zens from coronavirus-hit Wuhan” (The Lo-cal).

The Foreign Ministry will assist the 15Swedish citizens in Wuhan to leave there.

01/02/202002/02/2020 Eleven Swedish citizens are flown home

from China on an evacuation flight fromWuhan.

03/02/2020 “Coronavirus evacuation flight: 11 Swedesreturn home from China” (The Local).

04/02/202005/02/202006/02/202007/02/2020

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 26/43

SWEDEN (Table 1b - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

08/02/202009/02/202010/02/202011/02/202012/02/202013/02/2020 Tokyo Olympics organisers strongly reject

claims that the 2020 games will be can-celled.

14/02/2020 SAS extends its suspension of flights to andfrom China until March 29.

“Coronavirus: SAS extends suspension offlights to China” (The Local).

15/02/202016/02/202017/02/202018/02/202019/02/202020/02/202021/02/202022/02/202023/02/202024/02/202025/02/2020 “Sweden raises risk alert for spread of coro-

navirus” (The Local).The risk of the virus spreading in Sweden isupgraded from “very low” to “low” by thePublic Health Agency.

26/02/2020 A second case of virus is confirmed - a manin his 30’s from Gothenburg who has justvisited Italy.

27/02/2020 Five new cases confirmed. “Sweden confirms five new coronaviruscases, including first patient in Stockholm”(The Local). “‘Around 40 may have beenexposed to Gothenburg coronavirus patient”(The Local).

28/02/2020 Four more cases confirmed.29/02/2020 Two more cases confirmed.01/03/202002/03/2020 “Sweden halts flights from Iran over coron-

avirus fears” (The Local).Swedish health authorities upgrade the riskof the virus spreading in Sweden from “low”to “moderate”. The Foreign Ministry ad-vises against all travel to Iran. Swedenbecomes the first country in the world tosuspend Iranian airline Iran Air’s permit inSweden.

03/03/2020 Number of cases doubles from 15 to 30.WHO says world in ’uncharted territory’.

“Sweden’s first coronavirus patient recov-ers” (The Local). “Coronavirus: SAS sus-pends flights to northern Italy” (The Local).

04/03/2020 Number of cases increases to 35. “Why did Sweden’s confirmed coronaviruscases double overnight?” (The Local).

The Public Health Agency announces that itwill begin testing more people for the virus,including those who are showing symptomsafter traveling abroad or who have been inclose contact with confirmed cases.

05/03/2020 China toll passes 3000. Number of cases inSweden passes 350. Many of the cases arelinked to travellers who have returned fromItaly.

“Two patients in intensive care as coron-avirus cases rise to more than 300” (TheLocal).

The Foreign Ministry advises against allnon-essential travel to northern Italy andsome areas in South Korea.

06/03/202007/03/2020 Two die and thousands stranded on Grand

Princess cruise ship in Florida after 21 casesconfirmed.

08/03/202009/03/2020 First case of community transmission.

Stock markets plunge on global recessionfears.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 27/43

SWEDEN (Table 1b - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

10/03/2020 WHO declares a pandemic. “‘Very high’ risk of coronavirus spreadingin Sweden” (The Local).

Swedish health authorities upgrade the riskof the virus spreading in Sweden to “veryhigh”. The Public Health Agency ad-vises members of the public to avoid non-essential visits to hospitals and care homes,and reiterates the importance of people whowork with vulnerable groups staying awayfrom work if they have any symptoms suchas a cough or fever. Sweden’s foreign min-istry extends its travel recommendations toadvise against all non-essential travel to allof Italy.

11/03/2020 The first Sweden-linked virus death is con-firmed. US President Donald Trump an-nounces a travel ban to the US from allcountries in the Schengen area, which in-cludes Sweden.

“Sweden bans large events to halt coron-avirus spread” (The Local). “Sweden con-firms first death of coronavirus patient” (TheLocal).

The Public Health Agency issues ban onall public events of over 500 people. Swe-den’s Foreign Ministry advises against non-essential travel to the Austrian state of Tyrol.Police stop carrying out routine breath tests.Sweden’s government scraps the first un-paid day of sick leave, meaning that peoplewho take leave from work due to sicknesswill receive sick pay from the moment theirabsence begins, effective immediately andin force for 1.5 months.

12/03/2020 Nordic gym chain SATS closes clubsfor (initially) two weeks. Prison riot inNorrtalje linked to virus restrictions, includ-ing on visitors.

Denmark and Norway are both closingschools temporarily, but Sweden’s PublicHealth Agency warns that such a decisionwould have consequences for parents work-ing in essential jobs such as healthcare.Stockholm health authorities announce thatonly elderly people and patients in hospitalwill be tested for the coronavirus from nowon, part of a new national strategy aimed atusing resources in the most effective way.Other people who experience symptoms areinstead directed to national health line.ThePublic Health Agency updates its guidelinesto urge anyone with symptoms of the coron-avirus or a cold, regardless of whether or notthey have been travelling, to stay at homeand limit social contact until symptom-freefor at least two days.

13/03/2020 Many hospitals have introduced bans on ex-ternal visitors. The Stockholm stock ex-change’s OMXS index recovers 2.6 percentin early morning trading, after plummeting11.1 percent on Thursday – a historicallysharp fall in line with other European mar-kets. Airlines SAS and Norwegian cancelflights between Scandinavia and the US inthe wake of Donald Trump’s travel ban, withNorwegian temporarily laying off half itsstaff. The pandemic causes the Formula 1premiere to be cancelled. Justin Trudeau’swife tests positive. Global shortage of testkits.

“Swedish PM urges against non-essentialtravel amid coronavirus outbreak” (The Lo-cal).

Prime Minister Stefan Lofven urges Swedesto avoid international travel. Sweden can-cels its upcoming scholastic aptitude testfor university admissions, affecting 70,000students.

14/03/2020 Second virus death – an elderly woman inGothenburg. Several private initiatives areunder way to help people who have to self-isolate at home with their groceries. Exam-ples include the social media hashtag Din-GranneHar (YourNeighbourHere).

“Second person dies from coronavirus inSweden as latest confirmed cases rise to924”.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 28/43

SWEDEN (Table 1b - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

15/03/2020 Third death. Scandinavian Airlines an-nounce plans to temporary lay off up to10,000 staff. Global shortage of virus testkits; nations limit exports.

“Business and jobs: Sweden launches 300billion kronor crisis package” (The Local).

PM announces there are no imminent plansto close Sweden’s borders. The governmentannounces plans for what could amount to a300 billion kronor ($31 billion) crisis pack-age to help struggling businessess. Thepackage include provision for short-termlayoffs, where employers’ wage costs couldbe halved but the employee would still re-ceive more than 90 percent of salary, andthe state would cover the difference; the cen-tral government taking over sick pay respon-sibility in April and May; the possibilityfor companies to defer paying in employ-ers’ social security contributions, prelimi-nary tax on salaries and value-added tax thatare reported monthly or quarterly. Stock-holmers particularly urged to work fromhome. Parliament announces changes tonumbers of people in chambers in line withsocial distancing. Sweden’s Public HealthAgency clarifies that the advice against non-essential travel to anywhere in the world hasless to do with the risk of spreading infec-tion and more to do with the risk of endingup in a situation where it is impossible orharder to get home.

16/03/2020 Number of cases exceeds 1000. ImperialCollege London issues its Report 9: esti-mates 510,000 deaths in UK and 2.2 millionin the US in the absence of mitigation strate-gies.

“Stockholmers urged to work from home asSweden’s coronavirus deaths rise to seven”(The Local).

17/03/2020 Plans to increase intensive care capacity tomeet anticipated higher demand.

Sweden recommends all senior high schools(gymnasie level, children aged over 16)to close starting tomorrow, and to intro-duce distance learning so that students cankeep studying. The decision also appliesto universities and municipal adult educa-tion. Sweden halts international travel intothe country following an EU decision. Theentry ban will in force for 30 days. Badly-affected airlines will receive state support.In a deal between the Danish and Swedishgovernments, SAS has been guaranteedthree billion kronor in state support.

18/03/2020 Supply chain disruptions cause Swedishtruck maker Scania to announce a halt toproduction at most of its European plants.

Public Health Agency epidemiologist An-ders Tegnell tells reporters the countryshould be prepared for more cases and moredeaths in the coming weeks. Emphasisesimportance of flattening the curve.

19/03/2020 Stockholm hospitals ramp up preparationsfor more cases.

Anders Tegnell says that community infec-tion is worsening in an increasing numberof places, and advises against travel to themajor cities. Health Minister Lena Hallen-gren announces a new deal for Sweden fordeliveries of protective face masks. Parlia-ment votes to empower the government toclose schools and preschools if necessary.

20/03/2020 Swedavia, the operator of Sweden’s airports,lays off 1,900 staff due to the huge reductionin flight traffic, and gives notice that 800workers may be permanently laid off. Volvohalts production in Sweden, a move thataffects around 25,000 employees. Swedishuniversity campuses close to students andcontinue classes online.

“Volvo suspends car production in Europeand the US” (The Local).

Sweden’s state-run alcohol chain System-bolaget will reduce opening hours in Stock-holm because of a staff shortage resultingfrom the virus outbreak. Public broadcasterSVT will start broadcasting programmesespecially for children who have to stayat home. Region Stockholm (hospital)launches a self-assessment test for the virusonline. Foreign Minister says Sweden hasno plans to fly home Swedish citizens orresidents who are stranded abroad.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 29/43

SWEDEN (Table 1b - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

21/03/2020 Death toll rises to 20, with 1,746 confirmedcases.

“Number of coronavirus deaths in Swedenrises to 20” (The Local).

Testing strategy has shifted to testing onlythose with severe respiratory symptomsand/or who belong to vulnerable groups.

22/03/2020 Prime Minister Stefan Lofven makes a tele-vised speech to the nation urging everyoneto step up and do their part to prevent thespread of the virus. Sweden announces aA$170 million cash infusion into its arts,cultural and sports sector.

23/03/2020 More than 18,000 workers have been givennotice so far in March, compared with about3,300 in the same month last year.

Anders Tegnell says Sweden’s strategy iscurrently focused on protecting the elderlyand risk groups. Elderly people are urged tolimit direct contact with other people.

24/03/2020 Stockholm public transport company SL iscriticised for cutting services after picturesemerged of overcrowded buses during rushhour.

“Table service only: Sweden’s new restric-tions for bars and restaurants” (The Local).“While most of Europe is in lockdown, Swe-den is going its own way” (The Local).

Health Minister Lena Hallengren urgesSwedes to practice social distancing, al-though no official recommendation is madeto follow WHO guidelines stipulating peo-ple should remain one metre apart. Stock-holm councillor Kristoffer Tamsons urgespeople to drive as much as possible. Swedenis to allow table service only at bars, restau-rants, night clubs and cafes, under new re-strictions expected to come into effect to-morrow. Venues with table seating are alsotold to leave enough space between tables.Any venue that does not comply with thenew rules risks being shut down.

25/03/2020 Deaths in Stockholm almost doubleovernight. Global death toll passes 20,000.Global confirmed virus cases top 400,000.

“Home break-ins drop by more than halfin Stockholm as coronavirus hits” (The Lo-cal). “Coronavirus in Sweden: Five storiesof progress to bring you hope” (The Local).

Anders Tegnell says that government pol-icy is not to eliminate the virus but to bringit down as much as possible with reason-able measures so that healthcare servicescan continue to function. Stockholm CityCouncil present a crisis package for smallbusinesses. Measures include letting busi-nesses defer payment of rent on premisesowned by the council’s property firms, andmaking it possible for food trucks not tohave to pay a fee for land lease.

26/03/2020 US Senate passes massive $US2.2trn stimu-lus bill.

The government presents a series of newmeasures to mitigate the impact of thevirus outbreak on small businesses and en-trepreneurs. The proposed measures in-clude: loan guarantees to banks that provideloans of up to 75 million kronor to smalland medium-sized companies; reduction ofemployers’ social security contributions be-tween March 1st and June 30th; a temporarydiscount on rental costs for companies insectors hit hard by the virus (e.g., durableconsumer goods, hotels, restaurants); tem-porary rule changes to enable sole tradersaffected by the outbreak to get tax cuts; al-lowing sole traders to defer their spring VATpayments.

27/03/2020 Number of confirmed cases exceed 3,000. Prime Minister Lofven urges people not totravel during the Easter break. Says thatthe government cannot legislate and baneverything, and urges personal responsibil-ity. Nonetheless, Sweden bans gatherings ofmore than 50 people, with effect from Sun-day the 29th. Sweden now plans to try toevacuate Swedish citizens who are strandedabroad.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 30/43

SWEDEN (Table 1b - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

28/03/2020 Death toll reaches 100. “More than 100 coronavirus patients havenow died in Sweden” (The Local). “Explain-ing the science behind Sweden’s relaxedcoronavirus approach” (The Local).

29/03/2020 The Public Health Agency publishes a newwebsite providing statistics about the virus,including regions affected and the age andsex of patients.

30/03/2020 About 6,500 people, including doctors,nurses and students, have applied to helpout in the Stockholm region’s healthcaresystem, where around half of Sweden’s con-firmed virus cases and deaths have so farbeen located.

“Stockholm hospitals brace for ‘increasingcoronavirus storm’” (The Local).

King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia areboth in their 70s and and self-isolating inSormland, carrying out royal duties from adistance. Sweden temporarily relaxes the el-igibility rules for unemployment insurance,and raised both the minimum and maximumamounts to be paid out.

31/03/2020 “Big rise in job losses expected in Swedendue to the coronavirus crisis” (The Local).“Sweden asks Public Health Agency to in-crease coronavirus testing” (The Local).

Finance Minister Magdalena Anderssonsays the government expects another100,000 people to lose their jobs this yearand the unemployment rate to rise from 7%to 9%.

01/04/202002/04/2020 Several banks are raising the limit for con-

tactless payments in an effort to limit phys-ical contact. According to a survey bySwedish radio, many Swedish care homeshave confirmed or suspected cases of thevirus.

Almedalen, Sweden’s annual political festi-val, is cancelled. The coronavirus crisis willlast for months, not weeks, Prime MinisterLofven tells Swedish TV. Stockholm asksthe Swedish Association of Local Authori-ties and Regions for permission to activatea so-called ’crisis situation deal’ for health-care staff working in intensive care in theregion. This would mean staff can be told towork up to 48 hours a week rather than 40(the standard working week) but at a salaryup to 220% higher.

03/04/2020 Stockholm’s public transport will return tofull capacity on Monday, in an effort toavoid crowding on buses and other vehicleswhich could lead to the spread of infection.The Swedish foreign ministry extends itsadvice against non-essential travel to any-where in the world until June 15th. StefanIngves, the head of Sweden’s Central Bank –Riksbank – outlines measures the Riksbankhas undertaken to mitigate the economic im-pact of the virus, including more corporatelending via banks and lending by financialinstitutions from the Riksbank; reducing theovernight lending rate for banks; and pur-chasing government, municipal, mortgageand corporate bonds and commercial paper.

04/04/2020 “Sweden disputes accusations of lack ofcoronavirus action” (The Local).

Sweden strongly rejects the accusation lev-elled at it both domestically and internation-ally that life is carrying on as usual, and ofrisking the lives of its citizens by not takingmore stringent measures to curb the spreadof the virus.

05/04/2020 All commercial flights between Sweden andthe UK suspended as of April 9th.

“Airlines suspend flights between Swedenand the UK” (The Local) ”Sweden’s coro-navirus death rates ‘higher than previouslythought’” (The Local).

06/04/2020 Death toll passes 300. Swedish domesticairline BRA halt all flights from April 6thuntil further notice.

“New Stockholm field hospital to open itsdoors to coronavirus patients” (The Local).

Swedish Employment Agency’s new figuresshow that 49,500 people have been handedtheir notice since March 1. The hotel andrestaurant sector is the hardest hit, withmore than 14,000 people affected. A newarmy field hospital set up at the Alvsjo con-ference centre in Stockholm is expected toopen to patients today. Sweden’s CentralBank extends its 500 billion kronor loansfor companies struggling with the economicfallout of the pandemic to sole proprietors.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 31/43

SWEDEN (Table 1b - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

07/04/2020 “Sweden sees average of just over 40 coron-avirus deaths a day” (The Local).

Legislation set to apply from April 18 toJune 30 allows the government to take mea-sures such as closing schools, shoppingmalls, or restaurants without first gettingparliamentary approval. The Public HealthAgency is looking into why the virus hasspread to more elderly care homes in Swe-den than in the other Nordic countries.

08/04/2020 “Sweden dismisses Trump’s claim after USpresident takes swipe at coronavirus strat-egy” (The Local).

Tegnell says that now in Stockholm one per-son infects on average only one other person.However, infection in elderly care facilitiesis a concern. Tegnell pushes back on com-ments by President Trump that Sweden hadadopted a herd immunity strategy and wassuffering badly. Swedish company Essity,the world’s largest producer of toilet paperand other hygienic products, is to delivermillions of surgical masks to the Swedishhealthcare system, as part of a new deal withthe government.

09/04/2020 Virus hitting immigrant communities inStockholm particularly hard.

“Why are there so many coronavirus casesin Stockholm’s northern suburbs?” (The Lo-cal).

10/04/202011/04/202012/04/2020 Infection toll exceeds 10,000. Over 100

virus-related incidents have been reportedto police in Sweden, according to a reportfrom public broadcaster SVT. This includespeople who have claimed to be infected withthe virus and have coughed or spat at policeofficers.

13/04/202014/04/2020 Death toll exceeds 1,000. “Sweden’s coronavirus strategy sparks

fierce debate as deaths pass 1,000” (TheLocal).

15/04/2020 Stockholm’s Fotografiska Museum, one ofthe capital’s most popular attractions, hasclosed its doors until further notice andgiven notice to staff after seeing a drop of98 percent in visitors compared to a normalweek.

“Three scenarios: How the coronavirus cri-sis could hit the Swedish economy” (TheLocal).

Johanna Sandwall, head of crisis prepared-ness at The National Board of Health andWelfare, says 525 people were receivingtreatment in intensive care for the virus to-day, five fewer than the previous day. Shealso reports that there was still plenty ofspare capacity in Sweden’s intensive careunits, where the number of beds is continu-ally being increased. Sweden’s unemploy-ment figures could rise to 13.5 percent thisyear if the virus crisis drags on, according toa worst-case scenario presented by the gov-ernment today. In the best-case scenario, un-employment will quickly recover and climbback to roughly today’s level, and in themain scenario unemployment will rise from6.8 percent last year to 9.0 percent this year.

16/04/2020 “Swedish lawmakers hand government ex-tra powers to fight coronavirus” (The Lo-cal).

A new law grants the government extraor-dinary powers, including tempory closureof businesses, limits on public gatheringsand closure of ports and airports. The primeminister says it is far too early to start eas-ing restrictions, while thanking those peoplewho had heeded calls not to travel duringthe Easter break.

17/04/2020 “Expect Sweden’s coronavirus restrictionsto last for months: Swedish PM” (The Lo-cal).

Sweden extends its entry ban for another 30days.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 32/43

SWEDEN (Table 1b - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

18/04/2020 People with foreign backgrounds in poorerneighborhoods of Stockholm are dispropor-tionately affected by the virus, raising con-cerns that a greater effort needs to be madeto protect them.

“Coronavirus outbreak in Sweden raisesfears of ‘blind spot’ in some communities”(The Local).

19/04/202020/04/2020 “Sweden adds obesity to list of coronavirus

high risk groups” (The Local).21/04/2020 A new virus test of blood taken from blood

donors in Stockholm shows that at least 11out of 100 had developed antibodies, withthe real figure believed to be higher.

The Public Health Agency presents a newmodelling of the spread of coronavirus inStockholm. It was to be withdrawn the fol-lowing day due to an error.

22/04/2020 Health Minister Lena Hallengren says theNational Board of Health and Welfare willsoon be asked to distribute free hand sani-tiser to elderly care homes and homecareassistants.

23/04/2020 2,021 deaths and 16,755 confirmed cases sofar.

“Coronavirus: Death toll in Sweden passes2,000” (The Local).

The government says that Sweden passedits peak infection point on April 8.

24/04/2020 “The biggest myth about Sweden is that lifeis going on as normal” (The Local).

Deputy Prime Minister Isabella Lovin -“The biggest myth and misconception is thatlife goes on as normal in Sweden. It abso-lutely does not. We have seen Easter traveldecrease by 90 percent, we have businessesgoing bankrupt, a record number of tempo-rary layoffs, and a lot of unemployed peo-ple”.

25/04/2020 “We’re working day and night to save jobsin Sweden... but we can’t make guarantees”(The Local).

26/04/202027/04/2020 According to the Public Health Agency, a to-

tal of 2,274 people have died with the virus,from over 18,000 known cases.

“Sweden publishes new statistics on coron-avirus death toll” (The Local).

The National Board of Health and Welfaresuggests that deaths from coronavirus areapproximately 10% higher than reported bythe Public Health Agency. The discrepancyis due to differenced in the way the twoagencies register deaths.

28/04/2020 Scandinavian airline SAS has announcesplans to lay off up to 40 percent of its work-force in Sweden, Denmark and Norway.The move affects up to 1,900 full-time posi-tions in Sweden as the airline warns it maytake years for demand for air travel to returnto pre-crisis levels.

“Coronavirus crisis ‘has completelychanged Sweden’s economic prospects’”(The Local). “SAS to cut up to 5,000 jobsamid coronavirus crisis” (The Local).

The Riksbank leaves Sweden’s key inter-est rate unchanged but doesn’t exclude thepossibility of cutting the rate in future.

29/04/2020 In a survey of more than 1,600 Swedes con-ducted by five academics at five Europeanuniversities, 31% of respondents rated thenation’s response to the outbreak as notforceful enough. Another 18% were neu-tral and the remaining 51% considered theresponse forceful enough. Despite the argu-ment that Sweden’s strategy comes at theexpense of the old, support for the country’sresponse increased with age. 40% of peo-ple aged 15-29, but 61% of those aged over70, state that the Swedish response has beensufficient.

30/04/2020 App launched by Lund University to trackspread of virus is downloaded by about2,000 people.

“App launched in Sweden to help trackspread of the coronavirus” (The Local).

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 33/43

THAILAND (Table 1c)

Date Events Headlines Government action

20/01/2020 First US coronavirus case reported in Wash-ington state. One week earlier, on 13 Jan-uary, Thailand had reported the first caseof coronavirus outside China - a 61 year-old Chinese woman in a tour group fromWuhan. Her condition is not severe and sheis ready to return to China.

“First Coronavirus 2019 patient found inThailand” (Nation Thailand, 13 January).

21/01/202022/01/202023/01/2020 Chinese city of Wuhan placed under quar-

antine.24/01/2020 Fifth case confirmed in Thailand - another

tourist from Wuhan.“Fifth coronavirus victim confirmed in Thai-land” (Nation Thailand).

25/01/2020 Death toll hits 41 as doctor dies from virusin China.

26/01/202027/01/202028/01/2020 Thai Airways says that the virus is hav-

ing little effect on its operations becauseit has relatively few flight routes to China.Thailand still has the largest number of con-firmed cases outside China (14).

“Six more coronavirus cases discovered inThailand” (Nation Thailand). “THAI [Air-ways] claims limited impact from new coro-navirus crisis” (Nation Thailand).

29/01/202030/01/2020 WHO declares global health emergency. “Two charged for spreading fake coron-

avirus news” (Nation Thailand). “Thai offi-cials debunk netizens’ claims of coronavirusdeaths” (Nation Thailand).

The government’s Digital Economy and So-ciety (DES) ministry is monitoring mediafor ’fake news’ about the virus. Two arrestshave been made while four other offendershave been released with a warning.

31/01/2020 WHO declares virus outbreak an ”interna-tional emergency”. Thailand reports its firstcase of local virus transmission when a taxidriver who had never been to China is foundto be infected. Total cumulative number ofcases so far is 19.

01/02/202002/02/202003/02/202004/02/2020 Thai government sends a plane to Wuhan to

retrieve 138 stranded Thai citizens. Six arehospitalised with suspected infections upontheir return and the remainder are sent for14-day quarantine at a naval base.

05/02/2020 Face masks in short supply as people panicbuy.

“Face masks ‘snapped up right away’”(Bangkok Post). “Virus imperils Thai econ-omy” (Bangkok Post).

06/02/202007/02/202008/02/2020 “Health minister apologises for anti-

Western slurs” (Bangkok Post).Health minister forced to apologise for say-ing that foreigners who refused to wearmasks should be “kicked out of Thailand”.

09/02/202010/02/202011/02/202012/02/2020 Chinese government prohibition on out-

bound tour groups since January 24 is begin-ning to take a heavy toll on the Thai touristindustry.

“Chiang Mai reels under impact of newcoronavirus as tourists stay away” (NationThailand). “COVID-19 inflicts severe blowon Phuket hotel industry” (Nation Thai-land).

13/02/2020 Tokyo Olympics organisers strongly rejectclaims that the 2020 games will be can-celled.

14/02/202015/02/2020 China death toll passes 1,500.16/02/202017/02/202018/02/2020 Phuket province seeks government help as

exodus of Chinese tourists devastates localeconomy.

19/02/2020

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 34/43

THAILAND (Table 1c - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

20/02/2020 “Thailand Ready For Worst COVID-19 Sce-nario” (Bangkok Post).

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha reassuresthe public that Thailand is ready for theworst and that everything is under control.

21/02/2020 “COVID-19 to Get Dangerous Label”(Bangkok Post).

The government officially classifies thevirus as a dangerous communicable disease,and approves a plan for more stringent mea-sures if the situation gets worse.

22/02/2020 “Jump in Virus Cases Outside China Alarm-ing” (Bangkok Post).

Government announces it has stepped upscreening procedures in 8 provinces popularwith Chinese tourists.

23/02/2020 Ministry of Public Health announces airportscreening procedures for visitors from Italy.

24/02/202025/02/202026/02/2020 “Virus Shutters 2,500 Student School”

(Bangkok Post).27/02/2020 False rumours of virus outbreaks circulate

on social media, causing panics.“Rumour quashed of 22 suspected viruscases in Rayong” (Nation Thailand). “Pa-tient Walks Out of Hospital, Sparking PanicSearch” (Bangkok Post). “MPs Fear VirusContagion in House” (Bangkok Post).

Government says it is speeding up packag-ing and distribution of masks.

28/02/202029/02/2020 42 confirmed cases by the end of February.01/03/2020 First confirmed death is a 35 year-old man

who had originally been diagnosed withdengue.

“COVID-19 claims first life in Thailand”(Nation Thailand).

02/03/2020 Despite government assurances, masks areincreasingly scarce and the price is escalat-ing.

“Mask Supply Crisis Looms” (BangkokPost).

03/03/2020 WHO says world in ‘uncharted territory’.Panic buying of masks after news of thefirst Thai death from the virus has caused anational shortage, with most retailers havingrun out of stocks.

“Outrage over mask shortages” (BangkokPost).

04/03/2020 “Government Moves to Stop Face-MaskHoading” (Bangkok Post).

05/03/2020 China death toll passes 3000. Four countries designated as high-risk‘disease-infected zones’ and incoming trav-ellers from those countries placed underquarantine.

06/03/2020 Government says it will step up surveil-lance of Thai workers who returned fromSouth Korea and ignored requests to self-quarantine.

07/03/2020 Two die and thousands stranded on GrandPrincess cruise ship in Florida after 21 casesconfirmed. In Thailand, concerns grow thatThais returning from high-risk countriesabroad are dodging self-quarantine rulesand endangering lives.

“Anxiety grows as returnees avoid quaran-tine” (Bangkok Post).

08/03/202009/03/2020 Stock markets plunge on global recession

fears.About 80 Thais who returned from SouthKorea and slipped through governmentscreening procedures at Bangkok Airporthave been told to turn themselves in tohealth authorities within three days or facelegal action.

10/03/2020 WHO declares a pandemic.11/03/202012/03/2020 Trump suspends travel from Europe for 30

days. Tom Hanks tests positive for virus inAustralia.

13/03/2020 Justin Trudeau’s wife tests positive. Globalshortage of test kits.

“Five new COVID-19 cases confirmed inThailand” (Nation Thailand).

14/03/202015/03/2020 Global shortage of test kits; nations limit

exports. National opinion poll run on March11-12 finds 68% of Thais are ‘concerned’about the spread of the virus.

“32 new COVID-19 cases found in Thai-land” (Nation Thailand).

The Prime Minister appeals for calm andsays there is no need to stockpile food, assome food items start disappearing from su-permarket shelves.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 35/43

THAILAND (Table 1c - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

16/03/2020 Imperial College London issues its Report 9:estimates 510,000 deaths in UK and 2.2 mil-lion in the US in the absence of mitigationstrategies.

Songkran - one of Thailand’s most impor-tant annual holidays - is postponed until fur-ther notice.

17/03/2020 UK measures to last at least ‘severalmonths’

18/03/2020 35 new cases in one day, of which 25 arelinked to an unauthorised event organisedby the army at a Bangkok boxing stadiumon March 6.

“At Least 400,000 Infections Expected”(Bangkok Post). “Cinemas to close to stemspread of virus” (Bangkok Post).

Government’s Communicable Disease Di-vision estimates that with effective controlsand treatment, the number of infections canbe limited to 400,000 by the end of 2021.

19/03/2020 Foreign travellers entering Thailand re-quired to have health certification and healthinsurance.

20/03/202021/03/2020 Virus cases climb across Asia Pacific as

lockdowns in US widen. Thai AirAsia andBangkok Airways suspend all internationalflights.

22/03/2020 New cases in Thailand now over 100 perday; 188 announced today (peak).

“188 new cases take Thailand’s COVID-19 total to almost 600” (Nation Thailand).“Neighbouring provinces follow Bangkok inclosing many public outlets” (Nation Thai-land).

Bangkok government orders public venues,including restaurants, bars and cinemasclosed in the Bangkok metro area until April12. Only supermarkets, pharmacies andtakeaway food permitted to remain open.Five other provinces quickly follow suit.

23/03/2020 An estimated 80,000 Bangkok-area work-ers who lost their jobs because of the lock-downs leave the city en masse for their fam-ily homes in the provinces, raising fears thatthe virus will spread across Thailand.

“Tycoons urge unity amid chaos” (BangkokPost).

More provinces follow Bangkok’s lead andannounce shutdowns.

24/03/2020 “PM Declares State of Emergency” (NationThailand). “Cabinet approves B117bn stim-ulus” (Bangkok Post).

Government declares State of Emergencywith effect from March 26. Phuket provin-cial government closes all high-risk placesuntil March 31. Places closed are: malls,pharmacies, shops, entertainment venues,spas, restaurants, golf clubs, pet-serviceshops, beauty clinics, barber and tattooshops, and swimming pools. Cabinet ap-proves 117 billion baht stimulus packagethat includes three monthly cash disburse-ments of 5,000 baht for workers.

25/03/2020 Global death toll passes 20,000. Global con-firmed virus cases top 400,000.

“Govt to invoke emergency rule - Virusclaims 3 more lives, cases up to 827”(Bangkok Post).

26/03/2020 US Senate passes massive $US2.2trn stim-ulus bill. The number of cases in Thailandpasses 1,000.

“Army boxing promoters ‘wrong’ to ignorevirus warning” (Bangkok Post).

Government announces enquiry to deter-mine responsibility for the boxing eventat Lumpinee Boxing Stadium on March6, which was responsible for originating alarge number of infections.

27/03/2020 “Public Told to Stay Home for Seven Days”(Bangkok Post).

General Pornpipat Benyasri, chief of De-fence Forces, urges people nationwide tostay home and stop socialising for sevendays, starting this weekend. He threatens a24-hour curfew if the public don’t cooper-ate.

28/03/2020 “Lockdown upends people’s lives”(Bangkok Post).

29/03/2020 Phuket beaches close, hotels will not takenew guests and all nine airlines servicingPhuket have suspended operations.

“All beaches in Phuket closed indefinitely”(Nation Thailand).

Government chastises people for not prac-tising social distancing diligently enough.

30/03/2020 Inmates riot at Buriram central prison overrumours of a virus outbreak sparked by agroup of inmates sentenced to life impris-onment. A number of prisoners escaped -some had been recaptured while others arestill on the run.

“Prisoners escape in Buri Ram jail riot af-ter COVID-19 rumour” (Bangkok Post).“Handout could see 20m apply” (BangkokPost).

Government’s Fiscal Policy Office says 17.2million people have already applied for the5,000 baht handout intended to cushion theimpact of unemployment during the out-break.

31/03/2020 Nonthaburi province, a part of GreaterBangkok, imposes a curfew banning peoplefrom leaving home between 11pm and 5amuntil further notice. The national govern-ment bans egg exports to ensure adequatedomestic supply.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 36/43

THAILAND (Table 1c - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

01/04/202002/04/2020 Food delivery businesses are experiencing

a windfall as social distancing keeps cus-tomers away from restaurants and supermar-kets. Kasikorn Research Centre has fore-cast 17% growth this year in food orderedthrough apps.

“Cops to Get Tough With Virus Rule Break-ers” (Bangkok Post). “Virus crisis fuelsfood delivery bonanza” (Bangkok Post).

03/04/2020 World Bank warns Thailand of 5% GDPdecline in its worst-case scenario.

Curfew introduced nationwide from 10pm –4am nightly. Foreign nationals forbidden toenter Thailand.

04/04/2020 6,500 curfew violations reported. “Police, Soldiers Enforce Nationwide Coro-navirus Curfew” (Bangkok Post). “PM con-demns curfew breakers, says violators ‘lacksocial conscience’” (Bangkok Post).

All flights into Thailand banned from 4-6April. Police and military personnel set uphundreds of roadblocks around the coun-try to enforce curfew and limit travel. An-other 152 Thais reentering the country evadequarantine, prompting the government to in-struct them to report to the authorities by6pm Saturday or face legal action.

05/04/2020 British prime minister Boris Johnson checksinto hospital with virus. In Thailand, threevirus patients die and 102 new cases arereported.

“Three more COVID-19 patients die asThailand sees 102 new cases” (Nation Thai-land).

Most provinces go into lockdown under theorders of individual provincial governments,introducing the same measures as Bangkok.Apart from the business closures that mim-icked those in Bangkok, key elements oflockdowns in most provinces included: 1.Inter-provincial travel restricted and en-forced by roadblocks. Anyone stopped anddeemed ‘at risk’ is transferred to quarantineor hospital; 2. Restrictions on group gath-erings; 3. Closure of hotels after last guestchecks out; 4. Masks required outside thehome; 5. Ban on alcohol sales.

06/04/2020 “No plan for 24-hour curfew yet” (NationThailand).

Incoming flight ban extended until April 18.Government dismisses rumours of a 24-hourcurfew.

07/04/202008/04/2020 New cases in a 24-hour period roughly

triple, from 38 to 111.“Chiang Mai halts alcohol sales to fightCOVID-19” (Nation Thailand).

Government presents a 1.9 trillion baht(A$95 billion) stimulus package that in-cludes cash giveaways to an estimated 9million people and soft loans to small- andmedium-sized businesses. Chiang Mai gov-ernment follows other provinces in haltingalcohol sales.

09/04/2020 Woman who had earlier recovered fromvirus in March falls ill again. 54 new casesreported in Thailand, less than half of theprevious day.

“Chaiyaphum woman infected with COVID-19 for second time” (Nation Thailand).“Bangkok bans alcohol for 10 days”(Bangkok Post).

Bangkok government orders a ban on al-cohol sales from April 10-20. The statedobjective is to prevent people partying inlarge groups in their homes.

10/04/2020 Number of new cases continues to decline.11/04/2020 Another decline in the number of new cases

indicates that the draconian governmentmeasures could be working.

Foreign tourists unable to leave Thailand be-cause of travel restrictions and whose visasexpired after March 26 can stay until April30.

12/04/2020 33 new cases reported, down from 45 theprevious day.

“33 new COVID-19 cases point to decliningtrend in Thailand” (Nation Thailand).

13/04/2020 New cases fall to 28 in the last 24 hours. “Man Jumps to Death at the End of Quaran-tine” (Bangkok Post).

14/04/2020 New cases in the last 24 hours increase from28 to 34, although this will turn out to be aslight blip in the declining trend.

“Slight increase in COVID-19 cases shows‘we cannot ease restrictions yet’” (NationThailand).

Department of Corrections suspends the sen-tences of 8,000 inmates to ease overcrowd-ing in prisons. Government says that al-though the number of infections is declin-ing, Thailand cannot afford to drop its guardand ease restrictions yet.

15/04/2020 Number of new cases in the last 24 hoursfalls to 30.

16/04/2020 Inbound flight ban extended to April 30.17/04/2020 “Rate of Infection Continues to Slow”

(Bangkok Post).18/04/2020 29 of Thailand’s 76 provinces have now not

seen a new case for two weeks.“29 provinces free from COVID-19 fortwo weeks” (Nation Thailand). “Thailand’sCOVID-19 mortality rate among lowest inthe world” (Nation Thailand).

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 37/43

THAILAND (Table 1c - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

19/04/2020 “32 more COVID-19 cases point to situationstabilising in Thailand” (Nation Thailand).

20/04/2020 The prime minister sends an open letter toThailand’s 20 richest men, requesting theirassistance to fight the epidemic. Part of theletter reads: “I do not ask for donations orhandouts, all I ask is to send me details ofprojects that you are ready to carry out. Ialso ask that those projects should reach allgroups of Thai people and all parts of thecountry, as well as help them in any aspectof their lives in a tangible way. “I also wel-come suggestions as to how the governmentcan help or facilitate those projects so theysucceed. I would be highly thankful if youcould send me the details by next week”.

21/04/202022/04/2020 “Prayut Signals Easing of Lockdown”

(Bangkok Post). “Jobless Queue for Foodin Bangkok” (Bangkok Post).

The prime minister indicates that lockdownmeasures may be eased as the number ofnew cases continues to decline.

23/04/2020 “Lockdown Pain Worse Than Virus?”(Bangkok Post).

24/04/202025/04/2020 42 illegal migrant workers in the south of

Thailand test positive, making today thehighest new tally of infections since April9.

26/04/2020 “15 new cases point to major gains in battleagainst COVID-19” (Nation Thailand).

27/04/2020 Government extends State of Emergencyand curfew until May 31. Commerce Min-istry announces agreement with participat-ing food retailers to discount 3,025 con-sumer products by up to 68 percent untilJune 30. Incoming flight ban extended untilMay 31.

28/04/2020 “New COVID-19 cases drop to 7” (NationThailand).

29/04/202030/04/2020 Death toll remains at 54 for the third day

running, with 2,954 total infections.

UNITED KINGDOM (Table 1d)

Date Events Headlines Government action

20/01/2020 First US coronavirus case reported in Wash-ington state. One week earlier, on 13 Jan-uary, Thailand had reported the first case ofcoronavirus outside China.

21/01/202022/01/2020 Department of Health and Social Care

(DHSC) and Public Health England (PHE)raise the risk level from “very low” to “low”.Heathrow Airport tightens surveillance onflights to Wuhan, and attempts to trace 2000people who had flown into the UK fromWuhan over the last 14 days.

23/01/2020 Chinese city of Wuhan placed under quar-antine.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 38/43

UNITED KINGDOM (Table 1d - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

24/01/2020 “Growing fears over virus as tests begin inBritain” (Times). “Chinese cities in lock-down as coronavirus sparks global alarm”(Financial Times). “Coronavirus warning asfirst UK cases feared” (Daily Telegraph).

25/01/2020 Death toll hits 41 as doctor dies from virusin China.

“Britain braces for the spread of coron-avirus” (Independent). “Global push to con-tain spread of the coronavirus” (Guardian).

26/01/202027/01/2020 “Experts fear 100,000 may have new virus

worldwide” (Guardian).28/01/2020 Hundreds of UK residents evacuated from

Wuhan arrive back in Britain facing twoweeks of quarantine. British Airways sus-pends all flights to Beijing and Shanghai.

29/01/202030/01/2020 WHO declares global health emergency.31/01/2020 WHO declares virus outbreak an ”interna-

tional emergency”. Two Chinese nationalsfrom the same family, in York, England, be-come the first diagnosed with virus in theUK.

01/02/202002/02/202003/02/202004/02/2020 “‘Get out if you can’ - the warning to 30,000

Britons still in China” (Guardian).The Foreign Office tells Britons to leaveChina if possible.

05/02/2020 A man in Brighton becomes the third infec-tion diagnosed in the UK.

06/02/2020 UK Chief Medical Officers expand the num-ber of countries where a history of previ-ous travel associated with flu-like symptomsin the previous 14 days would require self-isolation.

07/02/2020 “Coronavirus fears rise as first Briton testspositive” (Guardian).

08/02/202009/02/202010/02/2020 Secretary of State for Health and Social

Care, Matt Hancock, announces the HealthProtection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020,to give public health professionals “strength-ened power”.

11/02/2020 “Coronavirus: Brighton GP Practice ClosesAfter Staff Member Tests Positive” (BBC).“Coronavirus cases double as ’spreader’fears grow” (Independent).

12/02/2020 First case diagnosed in London brings theUk total to nine.

13/02/2020 Tokyo Olympics organisers strongly rejectclaims that the 2020 games will be can-celled.

14/02/202015/02/2020 China death toll passes 1,500.16/02/2020 “Millions to be told ‘stay at home’ if coron-

avirus spreads” (Sunday Telegraph).17/02/202018/02/202019/02/202020/02/2020 Retailers warn of supply shortages due to

factory closures in China.“Stores fear empty shelves as coronaviruscrisis hits supplies” (The Times).

21/02/202022/02/202023/02/2020 Four British evacuees from the cruise ship

Diamond Princess test positive for virus.“Coronavirus: Four new UK cases amongship evacuees” (BBC).

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 39/43

UNITED KINGDOM (Table 1d - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

24/02/2020 “Coronavirus: UK ‘well prepared’ to dealwith cases, says government” (BBC).

25/02/202026/02/2020 “Health advice confusion as virus sweeps

across Europe” (Guardian).27/02/2020 “Schools and offices urged not to panic

about virus” (Daily Telegraph). “Now washyour hands, Britain told in fight againstvirus” (The Times). “UK warns againstmass panic as race to halt outbreak inten-sifies” (Guardian)

28/02/2020 First UK death from virus. London’s FTSEshare index loses 13% of its value.

“Virus fears wipe 200bn off UK firms’value” (BBC). “Major events in doubt asvirus fears grow” (Daily Telegraph). “Virus‘may be as damaging to global economy as2008 crisis’” (Guardian).

29/02/2020 Paul Cosford, a medical director at PublicHealth England, says that widespread trans-mission of virus in the United Kingdom is“highly likely”.

“Outbreak could leave one in ten in hospital”(Daily Telegraph).

The UK Government unveils the Coron-avirus Action Plan outlining what the coun-try had done and what it planned to do next.

01/03/2020 First confirmed case in Scotland. “Government Outlines New Coronavirus’Battle Plan’ as UK Cases Climb” (ITVNews).

Health secretary Matt Hancock concedesit is inevitable that coronavirus will spreadin the UK but was hopeful it could be con-tained. Says distancing measures will beconsidered, such as banning public gather-ings, cancelling sports events and closingschools.

02/03/2020 “Coronavirus: Widespread Transmission inUK “Highly Likely’” (BBC).

03/03/2020 WHO says world in ‘uncharted territory’. “PM warns thousands will catch virusacross Britain” (Independent). “OECDwarns virus threatens to cut global growthin half” (Financial Times).

04/03/2020 36 new cases brings UK total to 87. “Virus has biggest UK increase in a singleday” (Independent).

05/03/2020 China death toll passes 3000. “Government accused of secrecy over virusspread” (Guardian).

06/03/2020 First UK virus death, a woman in her seven-ties.

“First coronavirus death in UK” (Guardian).“First UK death from coronavirus as tollrises” (The Times).

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chiefscientific advisor, says government is con-sidering extreme measures such as isolationof households.

07/03/2020 Two die and thousands stranded on GrandPrincess cruise ship in Florida after 21 casesconfirmed.

“Investors rush to bond safety for fear ofglobal recession” (Financial Times).

08/03/2020 UK sees its largest daily increase in newcases (273).

“Whitehall plans for the worst as virusspreads” (Sunday Times).

Government now anticipates a death toll ashigh as 100,000.

09/03/2020 Stock markets plunge on global recessionfears.

10/03/2020 WHO declares a pandemic. “Coronavirus: Health Minister Nadine Dor-ries Tests Positive” (BBC).

11/03/2020 Bank of England makes emergency inter-est rate cut from 0.75% to 0.25%. UK an-nounces its first stimulus, granting tax cutsto retailers, cash to small businesses, sickleave for those self-isolating, a subsidy tocover sick pay, and expanded access to ben-efits. Cost: US$37 billion.

12/03/2020 Total cases exceed 500. “Coronavirus: People With Fever or ‘Con-tinuous’ Cough Told to Self-isolate” (BBC).

UK Chief Medical Officer raises the risk tothe UK from moderate to high. The govern-ment advises that anyone with a new con-tinuous cough or a fever should self-isolatefor seven days. Schools are asked to canceltrips abroad, and people over 70 and thosewith pre-existing medical conditions are ad-vised to avoid cruises.

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 40/43

UNITED KINGDOM (Table 1d - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

13/03/2020 First death in Scotland. Many sporting fix-tures, including the London Marathon, theSix Nations Wales vs Scotland fixture, andall Premier League and EFL football gamesare postponed. The 2020 UK local electionsare postponed for a year. Justin Trudeau’swife tests positive. Global shortage of testkits.

“PM: many more families will lose theirloved ones” (Guardian) ”Coronavirus: UKdeaths double in 24 hours” (BBC). “Trau-matic day on global markets spurs centralbanks to step up actions” (Financial Times).“Up to 10,000 infected but PM resists shut-down calls” (Independent).

14/03/2020 Total cases exceeds 1000. Scotland reportsits first death. Total number of deaths in-creases from 10 to 21 in the last 24 hours.

“Mass gatherings banned as PM forced intou-turn” (Guardian).

The government bans mass gatherings romthe beginning of next week.

15/03/2020 Global shortage of test kits; nations limitexports. UK death toll doubles to 21.

“Death toll leaps - and forces Johnson toact” (Sunday Times).

Health Secretary Matt Hancock says thatwithin the coming weeks everyone in theUK over the age of 70 would be asked tostay home for an lengthy period.

16/03/2020 First death in Wales. A second MP, KateOsborne, tests positive after a period of self-isolation. Imperial College London issuesits Report 9: estimates 510,000 deaths inUK and 2.2 million in the US in the absenceof mitigation strategies.

“Labour MP Kate Osborne Tests Posi-tive for Coronavirus” (Evening Standard).“Banks act to save world economy from pan-demic” (The Times). “Virus ’may last a yearand put 8m in NHS hospitals’” (Guardian).

PM advises everyone in the UK against“non-essential” travel and contact with oth-ers; suggests people should avoid pubs,clubs and theatres, and work from homeif possible. Pregnant women, people overthe age of 70 and those with certain healthconditions are urged to consider the advice“particularly important”, and would be askedto self-isolate within days. A second mem-ber of parliament tests positive.

17/03/2020 Simon Wolfson, CEO of leading Britishfashion chain Next, says the British highstreet is facing a crisis “unprecedented in liv-ing memory”. New cases continue to climband the death toll reaches 34.

“NHS to Postpone Millions of Operations toTackle Coronavirus” (The Guardian). “UKUnveils 330 Billion Lifeline for Firms Hitby Coronavirus” (Reuters). “Britain inLockdown” (The Times). “Life put on hold”(Daily Telegraph). “Global stocks take freshpummelling as Fed action fails to calm in-vestors” (Financial Times).

NHS England announces that all non-urgentoperations in England would be postponedfrom 15 April. Chancellor Rishi Sunak an-nounces a £350 billion bailout package thatincludes 330bn in loan guarantees for busi-nesses affected by the pandemic. The gov-ernment also provides a 3.2million emer-gency support package to help rough sleep-ers into accommodation.

18/03/2020 “350 bn bailout launched to save Britain’seconomy” (The Times).

PM announces that all schools in the UKwere to close on Friday to everyone exceptthose whose parents have important jobsthat they can’t do from home.

19/03/2020 First death in Northern Ireland. “Queen Flees London With Corgis in Fearof Coronavirus as Capital Prepares for Lock-down” (BBC). “Exams cancelled at virusforces schools to shut down” (The Times).

The interest rate is cut to 0.10%. The Min-istry of Defence annouces the formation ofthe COVID Support Force, enabling the mil-itary to support public services and civilianauthorities in tackling the outbreak. Twomilitary operations announced: OperationRescript, which focuses on the outbreak inthe United Kingdom; and Operation Broad-share, which focuses on British military ac-tivities overseas.

20/03/2020 Number of new cases continues to escalate,reaching 714.

“UK Pubs and Restaurants Told to Shutin Virus Fight” (Express). “Queen urgescountry to be strong in face of virus” (TheTimes).

PM requests the closure of pubs, restaurants,gyms, entertainment venues, museums andgalleries. The government announces aCoronavirus Job Retention Scheme, offer-ing grants to companies to pay 80% of staffwages each month up to a total of £2,500 perperson, if companies kept staff on their pay-roll. The scheme would cover three monthswages and would be backdated to the startof March.

21/03/2020 Virus cases climb across Asia Pacific aslockdowns in US widen.

“Britain shuts down” (Guardian).

22/03/2020 “Next” is the latest retailer to announce itis temporarily closing stores due to the pan-demic. With 700 stores closing it predicts a1bn loss in revenue due to virus. 18-year-olddies of virus.

“Coronavirus: Follow Virus Advice or‘Tougher Measures’ Likely, Says PM”(BBC).

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 41/43

UNITED KINGDOM (Table 1d - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

23/03/2020 “Curfew threat to stop virus” (The Times).“Johnson’s ultimatum: obey the rules or riskstrict lockdown” (Guardian). “Coronavirus:UK Lockdown Could Come ’Very Soon’ asEmergency Laws Rushed In” (Sky News).“Police Can Issue ‘Unlimited Fines’ toThose Flouting Coronavirus Social Distanc-ing Rules, Says Health Secretary” (ITV).

PM announces that measures to mitigatethe virus were to be tightened further, withwide-ranging restrictions made on freedomof movement, enforceable in law, for a ”stayat home” period which would last for at leastthree weeks. The government announcesthe Coronavirus Business Interruption LoanScheme for small and medium size busi-nesses and Covid Corporate Financing Fa-cility for large companies.

24/03/2020 “PM: ‘Stay at Home, This is a NationalEmergency” (Guardian). “End of Freedom”(Daily Telegraph).

NHS England to establish a temporary criti-cal care hospital. Parliaments at many levelsstart suspending sessions and/or switchingto virtual meetings.

25/03/2020 The first two working NHS doctors die fromvirus. British diplomat Steven Dick, deputyambassador to Hungary, dies in Budapestafter contracting the virus. Global death tollpasses 20,000. Global confirmed cases top400,000.

“Doctors and Nurses in Threat to Quit OverSafety” (Guardian). “Call For Army of Vol-unteers” (The Times).

Police to be given the power to use ”rea-sonable force” to enforce CV-19 regulations.NHS launches a volunteer recruitment drive.

26/03/2020 Prince Charles tests positive. 8 PM: nationalapplause for health care workers. US Senatepasses massive $US2.2trn stimulus bill.

“UK COVID-19 Death Toll Reaches578 After Biggest Recorded Daily Rise”(Guardian). “Nurses Sent to London asCapital Faces ’Tsunami’ of Virus Patients”(Guardian). “Now Charles is Infected as21-Year-Old Woman Dies” (Times).

27/03/2020 PM and Health Secretary Matt Hancockannounce they have tested positive for thevirus.

“UK Coronavirus Deaths Rise by 181 asConfirmed Cases Near 15,000” (Guardian).“Coronavirus Strikes at the Heart of Govern-ment” (ITV).

The Royal Mint announces that it was man-ufacturing medical visors for medical staffworking during the pandemic. The NationalPolice Chiefs’ Council says police had is-sued their first fines for people breakinglockdown rules. The government announcesa support package specifically for the self-employed, promising to pay the UK’s 5 mil-lion self-employed and freelance workersup to £2,500 per month during the crisis.

28/03/2020 Fitch downgrades the UK’s governmentdebt rating from AA to AA-, because ofvirus borrowing, economic decline, and lin-gering uncertainty over Brexit.

“UK Records Largest Single-day In-crease in Coronavirus Deaths to 1,019”(Guardian).

New regulations come into force in North-ern Ireland giving authorities the power toforce businesses to close and impose fineson them if they refused, as well as on peopleleaving their homes without a ”reasonableexcuse”, bringing Northern Ireland into linewith the rest of the UK.

29/03/2020 Dr Jenny Harries, England’s deputy chiefmedical officer, suggests it could be sixmonths before life could return to “normal”.The first NHS nurse dies of virus.

30/03/2020 The UK’s chief scientific adviser says therewere early signs social distancing measureswere “making a difference”. Dominic Raabannounces an arrangement between the gov-ernment and major UK airlines to fly hometens of thousands of British nationals whohad been stranded abroad by the outbreak.

31/03/2020 “Police Warned Against ‘Overreach’ in Useof Virus Lockdown Powers” (Guardian).

01/04/2020 2,000 NHS staff have been tested for virussince the outbreak began.

“UK to Set Up Virtual Parliament DuringCoronavirus Shutdown” (Guardian).

Health Secretary Matt Hancock announcesa ”five pillar” plan for testing people for thevirus, with the aim of conducting 100,000tests a day by the end of April.

02/04/2020 “UK Records 569 Coronavirus Fatalities onDeadliest Day So Far” (Guardian).

03/04/2020 Coronavirus Large Business InterruptionLoan Scheme (CLBILS) is announced (latertweaked to include more companies).

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 42/43

UNITED KINGDOM (Table 1d - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

04/04/2020 5-year-old dies with virus.05/04/2020 Queen Elizabeth II addresses the nation and

the wider Commonwealth, saying the UKwould succeed in its fight against virus butmay have “more still to endure”. CatherineCalderwood, Scotland’s chief medical offi-cer, resigns from her post after it emergedshe had been spoken to by police for visitingher second home during lockdown. BorisJohnson admitted to hospital.

“Queen Calls on Nation to Be Strong asVirus Strikes Medics” (Sunday Times).

06/04/2020 PM Boris Johnson is moved to the intensivecare unit at St Thomas’ Hospital in London.Dominic Raab assumes Johnson’s duties.

07/04/2020 “UK Coronavirus: Raab Hints at LockdownExtension as Boris Johnson Remains ‘Sta-ble’ in Intensive Care” (Guardian).

08/04/2020 “Power Vacuum Fears as Johnson Remainsin Intensive Care” (Guardian). “BritainSends Message of Hope to Battling John-son” (Times).

750m of government spending announcedto help small charities.

09/04/2020 Boris Johnson leaves intensive care.10/04/2020 Matt Hancock says a “Herculean effort” is

being made to ensure daily deliveries of per-sonal protective equipment (PPE) to front-line workers, including the establishment ofdomestic manufacturing industry to producethe equipment.

“Hundreds Dying of Virus in Care HomesNot Counted in Official Data” (Guardian).

11/04/2020 The Queen releases an Easter message, thefirst time she had done so, in which shespoke of hope and said “coronavirus willnot overcome us”.

“Social Distancing Could be Indefinite”(Daily Telegraph).

12/04/202013/04/202014/04/2020 A further twenty attempted arson attacks

on mobile phone masts announced to haveoccurred over the Easter weekend due to arumour that the 5G network was causingvirus.

“Care Homes Catastrophe” (Daily Mail).“Lockdown for Three More Weeks” (Times).

15/04/2020 “Two Million Could Lose Jobs in Lock-down” (Times). “Biggest Economic Shockin 300 Years” (Daily Telegraph). “UK Econ-omy Could Shrink by 35% in COVID-19Fallout” (Guardian).

Matt Hancock announces new guidelinesthat would allow close family members tosee dying relatives in order to say goodbyeto them. NHS England and the Care QualityCommission begin rolling out tests for carehome staff and residents. Arlene Foster, theFirst Minister of Northern Ireland, extendsthe period of lockdown in Northern Irelandto 9 May.

16/04/2020 New daily infections are levelling off, indi-cating that the virus may have peaked in theUK.

“New COVID-19 infections ‘flattening outin Britain” (The Times). “Virus finally‘reaching the peak’” (Daily Telegraph).

Dominic Raab says lockdown restrictionswould continue for ”at least” another threeweeks, and to relax them too early would”risk wasting all the sacrifices and all theprogress that has been made”. He set outfive conditions that would need to be metbefore restrictions could be eased, includinga ’sustained and consistent’ fall in the dailydeath rate.

17/04/2020 Number of new cases increases sharply,from 4,617 to 5,599. Deaths also increase,from 935 to 1,115.

“No end in sight for lockdown” (Daily Tele-graph). “Raab points way to ‘light at end oftunnel’” (The Times).

18/04/2020 Scientists at Oxford University prepare tolaunch government-backed trials of a vac-cine, saying they could have a million dosesready by September.

“Public being ‘treated like children’ overlockdown” (The Times). “7,500 feared tohave died in care homes” (Daily Telegraph).“NHS staff told ’wear aprons’ as protectivegowns run out” (Guardian).

The behavioural economics of government responses to COVID-19 — 43/43

UNITED KINGDOM (Table 1d - continued)

Date Events Headlines Government action

19/04/2020 David Nabarro, professor of global healthat Imperial College, London, says we willhave to live with the threat of virus andadapt, as there was no guarantee of a vac-cine.

“Don’t bet on vaccine to protect usfrom covid-19, says world health expert”(Guardian).

20/04/2020 “PM resists easing of lockdown” (TheTimes).

Boris Johnson says he is very cautious abouteasing the lockdown because of the risk ofa second wave of the virus.

21/04/2020 Number of new cases and deaths falls forthe second consecutive day.

“Ministers warned of exponential rise in fa-talities if lockdown eased” (Guardian).

A cabinet split Is emerging around easingof lockdown restrictions, with some cabi-net members increasingly concerned aboutthe economy while government health advi-sors warn that premature relaxation of themeasures would risk a steep increase in in-fections.

22/04/2020 Oxford University vaccine trials begin.23/04/2020 “Social distancing ‘in place for rest of

2020’” (Independent).Chief medical officer douses early vaccinehopes and says social distancing measuresmay have to remain in place for the rest ofthe year.

24/04/202025/04/202026/04/2020 Number of deaths falls to 338, the lowest

level in more than four weeks. Pressure isbuilding on the PM to ease the lockdown.

“Tory grandees tell PM: ‘it’s time to ease thelockdown’” (The Times). “PM returns toface lockdown dilemma as scientists warnover grim virus data” (Observer).

27/04/2020 “Johnson to ease the lockdown this week”(Daily Telegraph).

The prime minister returns to work.

28/04/2020 Number of new cases continues to decline,now below 4,000 for the first time sinceApril 7.

“No 10 in talks to allay public fears overend to lockdown” (Guardian). “Time to fireup the engines, says PM” (Daily Telegraph).

29/04/2020 British Airways announces it will cut12,000 jobs.

“COVID-19 crisis could lead to 18,000more cancer deaths” (Guardian). “Key rulefor lifting the lockdown is softened” (DailyTelegraph).

Government softens its language over relax-ation of lockdown, now saying that easingof restrictions measures would be aimed atavoiding a second peak that “overwhelmsthe NHS”.

30/04/2020 Number of new cases increases sharplyagain, to 6032. Deaths rise from 674 to739.

“UK’s death toll becomes third highest inworld” (Independent). “Johnson to dashlockdown hopes” (Daily Telegraph).

Prime minister says it is too early for a ma-jor easing of the lockdown.