The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.investor.bangchak.co.th/misc/presentation/AnalystMeeting_Q1Y2011.pdf ·...

The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.Analyst Meeting for Q1Y2011 performance – May 11, 2011

Dr. Anusorn Sangnimnuan President

Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong EVP-Accounting &Finance 1

www.bangchak.co.thThe Bangchak Petroleum Plc.

Agenda

2

BCP Achievements in Q1 and Outlook in 2011

BCP Performance in Q1 Y2011

New Business Progress

Marketing Activities in Q1 2011

Global Key Factors to Keep An Eye On

3

Saudi Arabia is forced to replace the loss supply from MENA

Key Factors

Political Tension

Quantitative

Easing (QE)

Global Economic Recovery

Bubble Risk in China

High inflation and volatility of US dollar

Unrest in oil producing countriesmay cause oil disruption

+ World GDP Growth and strong oil demand

Geopolitical Risk

OPEC Production

Global Economic Recovery

Currency Fluctuation

- Debt crisis in some European countries


- Poor economic data in OECD countries may cause short term selling of commodity

Oil price is downward in short-term but in long-term, it moves in an upward trend due to unrest situation and world economic recovery

World Oil Price


Product Crack Spread

Product cracks stay above 2010 level

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

Dubai

ULG95

Gas Oil

$/BBL

Dubai

Gas Oil

ULG95

~ 20 $/BBL

5

BCP Forecasted

www.bangchak.co.thThe Bangchak Petroleum Plc. 6

Crude Run in 2011

Note : During Feb 3 – Mar 6,2011 , catalyst changing gives more JP-1

Crude Run above 100 KBD with better yield of JP-1

Turnaround Period32 days

Q1 average crude run 62.7 KBD

Average Crude Run in 2011 ≈ 91.4 KBD


9.62 $/BBL

1 2 3 4 5 6

Base GRM Base GRM

Refinery Highlights

9.62 $/BBL

5 - 6 $/BBL

1 2 3 4 5

Base GRM

Base GRM

62.7

103.0 100.0 100.091.490.0

109.0 105.0 103.0 102.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Q1(Actual)

Q2(Plan)

Q3(Plan)

Q4(Plan)

Y2011

KBD

Crude Run

Sale Volume

7

5.5-6 $/BBL


Marketing Highlights

323 353 359 379 353

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q1 (Actual) Q2 (PLAN) Q3 (PLAN) Q4 (PLAN) Y2011

MKM

Number Of Service stations

2009 2010 2011(As of Apr)

2011 (Target)

E20 139 297 352 500

E85 2 5 5 20

Market share

ML

8

1.41 Baht Ltr1.75 Baht Ltr

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

MKM

Average Sales Volume

1.5 Baht/Ltr


Bangchak Bio Fuel

9

43%

53%

82% 82%

65%

11.614.4

22.5 22.5

17.8

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Yr 2011

Utilization Rate & Production Plan

Utilization Rate Production Plan (ML)


Agenda

10






GRM Performance

1Q11 1Q10

0

5

10

15

Q1 2011 Q1 2010

Market GRM ($/BBL)

Market GRM ($/BBL)

9.625.54

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

Q1 2011 Q1 2010

GRM Hedging ($/BBL)

GRM Hedging ($/BBL)

-0.97 0.1

0

2

4

6

Q1 2011 Q1 2010

Inventory G (L) ($/BBL)


5.12

0.58

2.4

2.45

2.5

2.55

Q1 2011 Q1 2010

MKM ($/BBL)

MKM ($/BBL)

2.542.46

Accounting GIM ($/Bbl)

13.77

2.54

Q1 2011

Accounting GIM ($/BBL)

Total GRM Contribution MKM

13.77

2.54

Q1 2011

Accounting GIM ($/BBL)

Total GRM Contribution MKM

16.31 $/Bbl

High GRM & Inventory gain

Oil price increase

High spread due to strong

demand of diesel

Japan’s crisis

11

Unit : $/Bbl

Market GRM)

GRM Hedging

Inventory G(L)

MKM1Q11

6.41

4Q10

Q1 2011

GRM Hedging ($/BBL)

GRM Hedging ($/BBL)

0.77

0

1

2

3

Q1 2011



2.69

0

2

4

Q1 2011

MKM ($/BBL)

MKM ($/BBL)

2.98


Profit and Loss HighlightsUnit : Million Baht 1Q11 1Q10 r 4Q10

Sale Revenue 35,382 33,224 +6.5% 35,661

EBITDA 2,234 1,532 +45.8% 1,988

Refinery business 1,890 1,146 +64.9% 1,767

Marketing business 344 386 -10.8% 221

Depreciation & Amortization (425) (449) (510)

Other FX and Impairment 261 148 172

Financial Cost (191) (199) (221)

Pre-tax Profit 1,879 1,032 +82.0% 1,429

Tax (441) (277) (439)

Net Profit 1,437 755 +90.3% 990

EPS 1.14 0.65 0.85

Inventory Gain/(Loss) 888 148 +501.5%

Adjusted EBITDA 1,346 1,384 -2.7%

Refinery business 1,002 998 +0.4%

Marketing business 344 386 -10.8%

12

Extraordinary items :

The dividend of Baht 84 million from BangchakBiofuel Co., Ltd.

Reversal of loss from impairment of intangible assets of Baht 241 million.

The increase of the consolidated expenses was mainly from the Catalyst write-off Baht 113 million.


1Q11 1Q10 4Q10

M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL

Base GRM 1,664 9.62 1,421 5.54 1,581 6.41

GRM Hedging (168) (0.97) 25 0.10 (189) (0.77)

Inventory Gain/(Loss) 888 5.12 148 0.58 663 2.69

Total GRM 2,383 13.77 1,594 6.21 2,054 8.32

Other Income 90 24 421

Operating Expenses (583) (471) (708)

EBITDA 1,890 1,146 1,767

Adjusted EBITDA 1,002 998 1,104

Key factors

Crude Run (KBD) 62.7 86.3 89.1

Exchange rate (฿/$) 30.68 33.04 30.1

DB ($/Bbl) 100.49 75.83 84.31

Refinery BU Performance

13


1Q11 1Q10 4Q10

M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L

Net Retail Margin 404 0.70 438 0.73 468 0.77

Net Industrial Margin 64 0.17 69 0.18 96 0.25

Total MKM 468 0.49 507 0.51 564 0.57

Other Income 244 202 206

Operating Expenses (368) (323) (549)

EBITDA 344 386 221

Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo

o Retail 40.6 194 41.8 199 42.6 203

o Industrial 26.6 127 27.2 130 27.0 129

Total Sale Volume 67.2 320 68.9 329 69.8 333

Marketing BU Performance

2.52 $/bbl 2.48 $/bbl 2.98 $/bbl

14


Assets 31 Mar 11 31 Dec 10 Liabilities 31 Mar 11 31 Dec 10

Cash 1,175 8,504 Short Term Loan + Due 1 Yr 3,380 2,587

Trade Accounts Receivable 8,188 6,314 Trade Accounts Payable 11,063 10,094

Inventories 18,029 15,058 Other Current Liabilities 4,402 4,482

Other Current Assets 5,129 1,635 Long Term Loan 14,257 16,441

Current Assets 32,521 31,511 Other Non current Liabilities 1,049 1,109

Total Liabilities 34,151 34,713

Shareholders' Equity

Investment in Subsidiary 348 198 Common Share 1,250 1,177

PPE 24,046 23,311 Premium on Share Capital 9,430 8,462

Leasehold Rights 948 954 Revalue Asset - -

Other Non-Current Assets 1,191 1,165 Retained Earning 14,224 12,787

Total Equity 24,904 22,426

Total Assets 59,054 57,139 Total Liabilities & Equity 59,055 57,139

Financial Position Q1 Y2011

15

Remark :

Figures were adjusted to the new accounting standard

Unit : Million Baht


81% 83%

15% 12%

4% 5%

EBITDA Net Profit

Refinery Business Marketing & Service station BBF

Financial Measurement Q1 Y2011

Total EBITDA 2,325 MB

Net Profit1,508 MB

16

PROFIT / RETURN RATIO (1Q2011)

Net Profit Margin % 3.98

Earning per Share Baht 1.14

Return on Equity-ROE % 5.97

Return on Assets-ROA % 2.40

FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO (As of 31 Mar 11)

Current Ratio times 1.73

AR Day days 16.61

DSCR times 3.68

D/E Ratio times 0.72

Net debt to EBITDA times 2.78

Book Value per Share (BV) Baht 20.07

BBF

Refinery BU

Marketing BU

Consolidated


Bangchak Bio Fuel Performance Q1 Y2011

Profit & Loss

17

Balance Sheet

Total Assets 1,259 MB Total Liabilities 762 MB

Total Equities 497 MB

807

118 19

315

Chart Title

Cash

Other Assets

Inventory

PP&E807

118 19

315

Chart Title

Cash

Other Assets

Inventory

PP&E497

454

170 56 82

Chart Title

S/T Debt

Trade A/P

Other Liabilities

L/T Debt

Equity497

454

170 56 82

Chart Title

S/T Debt

Trade A/P

Other Liabilities

L/T Debt

Equity

Unit : Million Baht 1Q11 1Q10 ∆ 4Q10

Sale Revenue 683 529 29.1% 836

Cost of Goods Sold (548) (477) 14.9% (673)

Gross Profit Margin 135 52 159.6% 163

Operating Expenses (5) (4) 25.0% (9)

Inventory Loss (40)

EBITDA 90 59 52.5% 154

Depreciation (11) (11) 0.0% (11)

Interest (8) (9) -11.1% (8)

Corporate Tax (6)

Net Profit 71 38 86.8% 129


1,382

BCP Shareholders’ Structure

18

Unit : Million shares

MOF

PTT

Others

Total BCP-DR1

As of Dec 31, 10

125 10.6%

52 4.4%

249 21.2%

426 36.2%

As of Mar 31, 11

125 10.0%

52 4.2%

215 17.2%

392 31.4%

PTT

Others

Total BCP

281 23.9%

470 39.9%

751 63.8%

281 22.5%

577 46.1%

858 68.6%

CDDR fully convert to CS(at 14.3 Baht/share)

CD-PTT fully convert to CS(at 14 Baht/share)

Warrant fully convert to CS(at 18 Baht/share)

Total (BCP&BCP-DR1) 1,177 100% 1,250 100%

Total (Fully Diluted)

22

42

68

1,382

At present

125 9.9%

52 4.1%

198 15.7%

375 29.7%

281 22.2%

609 48.1%

890 70.3%

1,265 100%

7

42

68

1,382

94

42

69


Agenda

19






BCP Future Prosperity

20

EBITDA 6,165 MB

Y2010

Marketing22%

New Business6%Refinery

72%

Marketing New Business. Refinery

EBITDA >10,000 MB

Y2015

Potash

Ethanol

Solar

BBF

PAT : 3,000 – 4,800 MBPAT : 2,889 MB

300

2,200

400

1

Chart Title

Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4

Algae


Solar Farm : Phase I


Layout

As of 1 May 2011

Facility Building

Pond

Landfill 88% Completed

Dyke

PV Module Installed

Phase I : 38 MW

Project Cost ~ 4,200 MB

Work Progress 62%

COD Q4-2011

Expected EBITDA +700 MB/Year



PV Module Installation



Solar Farm Phase II

Phase II : 32 MW

Locations : 16 MW in Central area

16 MW in North Eastern

Project Cost ~ 3,600MB

Expected EBITDA +600 MB/Year

Start Construction : Q3 2011

COD : Nov, 2012

24


Ethanol Project : Investment in UBE


Ethanol Project : Investment in TAE

TAE Shareholders’ Structure BCP investment ≈ 440 MB (40% of Thai Argo Energy)

Location : Suphanburi Province

Capacity

- 165,000 Liters/day from Molasses

- 200,000 Liters/day from Cassava (COD June,11)

26

Lanna 45%

BCP 40%

Others 15%

1

2

3


Palm Plantation

Palm Plantation 80,000 Rais at Phathumthani

Palm mill with capacity 45 tons/hour (COD in 2015)

Project cost 800 MB, expected EBITDA 230 MB/yr

Project progress : Pilot project of 1,200 Rais under land preparation phase

27


Algae Energy

4 parties signed MOU to offer help in commercializing algae based oil

Project cost ≈ Baht 1.1 Billion

Area 500 Rais (Next to RATCH power plant)

30,000-liter capacity of algae oil per day

Plant expected completion in 2014

28

$/BBL Production CostRefining

CostTotal Cost Residual

Crude Oil 80+ 8 88+ Fuel Oil

Algae Oil 90-100 20 110-120 None


Algae Energy Innovation Center: BIO-DOME


Potash Mining

ASEAN Potash Mining Company (APMC) BCP holds 16.20% in APMC

Location : Chaiyaphum province

Technology : Solution mining

or Underground mining

30

As of November, 2010


Agenda






Marketing Activitiesงานรับรางวัล "ปั๊มคุณภาพ ปลอดภัย น่าใช้บริการ”

32


Sales & Promotion Activities

33

152,584

227,091

307,985

340,000

2008 2009 2010 2011(As of Apr)

Gasohol Club Member

Year

Gasohol Club MemberNumber of Membership

เติม E20 E85 รับส่วนลดสะสม 60 สต./ลิตร

รับสิทธิ์เติมน ้ามันราคาเดิม ในวันที่ปรับราคา

ซื อบัตรบางจากแกส๊โซฮอลค์ลับ 1 ใบแถมฟรี 1 ใบ

พิเศษ 1

พิเศษ 2

พิเศษ 3


Sales & Promotion Activities

Co-Promotion with VISA & Krungsri Credit Card

34


Launch New Lubricant

35

FULLY SYNTHETIC / SAE 5W-30

API SN / ILSAC GF-5 / DEXOS - 1


BCP’s lubricant product exported to China


Inthanin PREMIO @ CTW


Inthanin @ Faculty of Engineering CU


Inthanin @ Faculty of Architect TU


Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the

recipient, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided

herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained

herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP

makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein.

Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters

described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one

among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be

viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent

evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.

[email protected]

Tel. 02 335 4580

www.bangchak.co.th

click Investor Relations

Analyst Meeting for Q1Y2011

The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.investor.bangchak.co.th/misc/presentation/AnalystMeeting_Q1Y2011.pdf ·...

Documents

Transcript of The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.investor.bangchak.co.th/misc/presentation/AnalystMeeting_Q1Y2011.pdf ·...