The BalancThe Balance of Power: In Search of Plan B -17 Apr 2013e of Power-In Search of Plan__ B- 17...

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1

THE BALANCE OF POWER:In Search of Plan B

Purasisi Jinadasa

CAL Research

April 2013

see page 41 for important disclaimer


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Contents

Executive Summary: The balance of power

I. Strong shift to coal-fired power not enough

II. A 2013 price hike of 25-30% necessary tobuy time

III. Oil & Water: Raindrops arent enough

Appendix 1: Sobering Stats

2

Page

3

11

21

36

28


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:THE BALANCE OF POWER

3


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In Search of Plan B

High cost diesel/fuel oil and inefficient gas comprise 1420MW of power capacity that needsto be phased out

As a stop gap, prices in 2013 must rise 25-30% to compensate for the inefficient thermal

power output

Adding coal-fired power partly provides an affordable electricity generating option (c.LKR8.3/KWh in 2013E)

If GDP grows 6% in 2013, Sri Lankas oil import bill may reach USD 6.7bn, of which USD

1.3bn is for electricity

Hydro has limited potential to further improve the energy balance unless record rainfalloccurs

Plan B: larger scale, cost-effective capacity additions,plus CPC/CEB reforms

4


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High cost diesel/fuel oil and inefficient gas comprise

1420MW of power capacity that needs to be phased out

5

The powerministry

indicates that

c.42% ofavailable

generation

capacity comes

from higher cost

thermal sources

(gas and diesel)

* Cost/KWh are estimates

by PUCSL for 2013 and

costs reflect peak/off-peak

energy production

allocation

Installed Capacity

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Cost/KWh(LKR

)

DIESEL/FUEL

RENEWABLE

COAL

215MW

GASTURBINE

305MW

300MW

1205MW

1383MW

HYDRO

Renewable includes mini-hydro

Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, Ministry of Power and Energy, PUCSL and CAL Research


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-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Thermal Coal Hydro

Cost/MWh(L

KR

Total Cost/MWh Total Revenue/MWh

As a stop gap, prices in 2013 must rise 25-30% to

compensate for the inefficient thermal power output

6Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, PUCSL and CAL Research

The average sales price of a KWh in 2011 was

LKR 13.6. Based on the 2012E energy mix, the

avg. sales price needs to increase to c.LKR 18(+c.30%) for energy production to break-even

* Hydro production has no cost. Refer Appendix (slide

38) for a detailed cost break-down

* Cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation


7/42

Adding coal-fired power partly provides an affordable

electricity generating option (c.LKR 8.3/KWh in 2013E)

7

1,038

5,786

1,590

2,492

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

GW

h

Utilized Capacity Unutilized Capacity

Puttlam Coal Phase I (2011)

300MW Power Plant

Puttlam Coal Phase II (2014E)

Additional 300MW

* By 2016E, the capacity

factor at both coal plants

is expected to be c.70%

c.15%

c.36%

12,409

16,208

2013E 2016E

Contribution by Coal Total Generation

Both coal plants are expected to run

at a c.70% capacity factor once fullyoperational. By 2016E, coal may

comprise c.35%+ of energygenerated. The Public Utilities

Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL)

estimates power generated by coal

to be LKR 8.3/KWh in 2013

Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, Ministry of Power and Energy, PUCSL and CAL Research


8/42

If GDP grows 6% in 2013, Sri Lankas oil import bill may

reach USD 6.7bn*, of which USD 1.3bn is for electricity

8Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority and CAL Research

* Includes a c.USD 180mn saving due to increased coal power generation

1,799

1,218

694 931

(855) (701)

(2,000)

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2011 2012E 2013E Gov't 2013 7.5% GDP

Target

USDmillion

s

Total Oil Import Bill (USD mn) Addition to Oil Import Bill (USD mn)

CPC Loss (USD mn)

CALs 6% GDP


9/42

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Plus 25%

Rainfall

Plus 45%

Rainfall

Contribtuion to Power from Hydro

Average rainfall catchment (mm)-RHS

Hydro has limited potential to further improve the

energy balance unless record rainfall occurs

9

Record rainfall

in 2010 resulted

in a c.53%hydro

contribution.

Rainfall may

have to

increase by45% from the

10-year average

ofc.3500mm(base case

2013E) for a

c.60% hydro

contribution

Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, CBSL and CAL Research


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Plan B: larger scale, cost-effective capacity

additions, plus CPC/CEB reforms

The country is likely to have commercial gasdeposits onshore and offshore, but natural gasinfrastructure investment minimums are high

Imported LNG could be a major contributor, butscale and sovereign guarantees are factors

Biomass holds great potential, but securing long-term affordable supply can prove vexing

Hydro appears mostly tapped; wind and solarremain too expensive near term

10


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II. STRONG SHIFT TO COAL-FIREDPOWER NOT ENOUGH

11


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Strong shift to coal-fired power not

enough

In 2011, the energy source mix resulted in a cost/KWh ofc.LKR 15 (vs. an avg. sales price of LKR13.6)

The story worsens in 2013 as PUCSL estimates c.50%+ of energy to be provided by diesel/fuel oil

In 2013E, PUCSL expects IPPs to provide c.35% at an average combined c.LKR 21 cost/KWh

Making the blended2013 cost/KWh c.LKR 17

By 2016E, the Govt expects c.36% of energy to be sourced from coal-fired plants, up from 15% in

2013E

The 2016E energy mix may result in an avg. cost/KWh of LKR 10.5, down LKR 6.5 (38%) from

2013E

However, a totalcost ofc.LKR 14.3/KWh would still be 5% above the average selling price of LKR

13.6/KWh

The additional 360MW coal-fired capacity may cost c.USD 800mn by 2016

12


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In 2011, the energy source mix resulted in a cost/KWh

ofc.LKR 15* (vs. an avg. sales price of LKR 13.6)


* Cost does not include transmission, distribution and debt payment (c.LKR 3.8/KWh in 2013E) and

average cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation

26

34

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Thermal (Diesel/Fuel) Gas Turbine Hydro, Coal and Renewables

Cost/K

h(LK

R)

GW

h

Power Generated (GWh) Cost/KWh (LKR)-RHS

Avg. cost of production: c.LKR 15/KWh


14/42

The story worsens in 2013 as PUCSL estimates c.50%+of energy to be produced via high cost diesel/fuel oil


CAL expects totalenergy generated

to reach c.13,000GWh in 2013,

with PUCSL

expecting energy

demand to reach

10,950 GWh. The

PUCSL estimates

c.50%+ of energygenerated to

come from

diesel/fuel power

plants34%

70%

27%

64%

4%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Hydro Coal Renewable Diesel Gas

G

Wh

Utilization (GWh) Excess Capacity (GWh)


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In 2013E, PUCSL expects IPPs to provide c.35% of totalpower at an average combined c.LKR 21 cost/KWh


* Cost does not include

transmission, distribution

or debt payment (which

will bring non-IPP cost toc.LKR 16)

Contribution to Power Generated

A larger proportion

of CEB power

comes from hydro,

thereby reducing

generation costs

(peak hours

supplied by lower

cost sources)


-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Cost/KWh(LK

R)

IPP

CEB*


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Making the blended 2013 cost/KWh c.LKR 17


-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Cost/K

WhtoGeneratePower(L

KR)

HYDRO COAL RENW DIESEL/FUEL GAS TURBINE

Current avg. CEB selling price:

LKR13.6/KWh

Proposed avg. CEB selling price:

LKR20.1/KWh

Contribution to Power Generated

In 2013E, the

PUCSL

estimates a

majority of

contribution to

meet demand to

come from

diesel/fuel

sources at an

average cost of

c.LKR 22/KWh

Cost does not includetransmission, distribution

or debt payment (an

additional c.LKR 3.8/KWh)



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By 2016E, the Govt expects c.36% of energy to besourced from coal-fired plants, up from 15% in 2013E


Thermal

(Gas)

1%

Thermal(Diesel/Fuel)

51%

Coal

15%

Renewable

4%

CEB Hydro

29%

2013E Total Energy Generated c.13k GWh

Thermal

(Gas)

2%

Thermal

(Diesel/Fuel)

21%

Coal

36%

Renewable

9%

CEB Hydro

32%

2016E Total Energy Generated c.16k GWh

The govt expects energy

generated to grow by c.24% by2016E


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The 2016E energy mix may result in an avg. cost/KWh

of LKR 10.51, down LKR 6.5 (38%) from 2013E


39%

70%

38%

47%

18%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Hydro Coal Renewable Diesel Gas

GW

h

Utilization (GWh) Excess Capacity (GWh)

LKR 0/KWh LKR 8.3/KWh LKR 19/KWh LKR 22/KWh LKR 46/KWh Total energygenerated is

expected to reach

c.16,000 GWh,while generation

capacity is

expected to bec.34,600 GWh.Coal is expected

to provide c.36%of energy

generated. The

avg. cost/KWh

may be reducedto c.LKR 10.5from current

c.LKR 17

1Cost does not include distribution, transmission and other expenses

(c.LKR3.8/ KWh in 2013E) and are based on 2013E


19/42

However, a total cost ofc.LKR 14.3/KWh1 would still be5% above the average selling price of LKR 13.6/KWh


Sri Lanka can stillbenefit from new,

cheaper energy

sources. At a

c.36%contribution from

coal, totalcost/KWh still

falls short of the

current selling

price/KWh of LKR

13.6.

1Cost includes distribution, transmission and other expenses of c.LKR3.8/ KWh (2013E)

Additional costs from

distribution, transmission

and debt repayment

10.5

3.8

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Cost/KWh(LKR)

Cost to Generate a KWh Additional Cost/KWh


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The additional 360MW coal-fired capacity may cost

c.USD 800mn by 2016

20Source: Ministry of Power and Energy, Bloomberg and CAL Research

By 2016E, the coalpower plant is

expected to

generate c.5800GWh, which

indicates a capex

on coal powerexpansion of

c.USD 808mn overthe next 3 years at

USD 256k/MWh of

new capacity

* Costs are calculated based on total estimated project costs as published by the Power Ministry

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

COAL HYDRO RENW THERMAL

USD/MWh


21/42

II. A 2013 PRICE HIKE OF 25-30%NECESSARY TO BUY TIME

21


22/42

A 2013 price hike of 25-30% necessary to

buy time

In March, PUCSL proposed a 26% blended tariff increase to LKR20.1, which now awaits legislative action

On the 2012E energy mix, the avg. selling price needs a c.30%

increase for energy producers to break even

In 2013E, high cost thermal energy (44% sales) predominates over

hydro (37%) and coal (15%)

A c.15% contribution from coal would require c.70% capacity

utilization at the 300MW coal plant...

which may reduce the required price increase to break even to

only c.25%

22


23/42

In March, the PUCSL proposed a 26% blended tariff

increase to LKR 20.1, which now awaits legislative action


Tariff Category

Estimated Revenue at Existing

Tariff for 2013 (LKR mn)

Estimated Revenue at

Proposed Tariff (LKR mn)

Estimated Cost of

Generation for 2013

(LKR mn)

Estimated Subsidy/

(Surplus) at Proposed Tariff

(LKR mn)

Domestic 50,700 84,987 86,715 1,728

Religious 420 420 1,375 955

General Purpose 64,791 69,923 55,163 (14,760)

Hotel Purpose 3,928 4,632 4,948 316

Industrial 54,000 60,170 76,879 16,709

Street Lighting 0 0 3,043 3,043

Total 173,839 220,132 228,151 7,991

Total/KWh (LKR) 15.9 20.1 20.8* 0.7

* Cost includes transmission, distribution and debt payment (c.LKR 3.8/KWh in 2013E)


24/42

On the 2012E energy mix, the avg. selling price needs a

c.30% increase for energy producers to break even


2012EGross Generation

(GWh)

Generation

Cost/MWh (LKR)

Avg. Sales

Price/MWh (LKR)

Profit/(Shortfall)(LKR)

Price Adjustment

Required/MWh(LKR)

hermal 5,819 33,900 13,600 (68,500,000) 22,100

Hydro 4,362 - 13,600 59,500,000 -

Coal 1,535 8,300 13,600 8,200,000 -

Price Adjustment

Required 17,800*

CAL has assumed coal to form c.12% of the energy mix in 2012E (c.9% of the energy mix in 2011)

The above energy mix is estimated to have contributed to c.94% of energy produced in 2012E

Cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation

* Price adjustment does not include distribution, transmission and other costs (c.LKR 3.8/KWh in 2013E)


25/42

In 2013E, high cost thermal energy (44% sales)

predominates over hydro (37%) and coal (15%)


* An additional 421GWh of

hydro production is includedfor 2013E, due to the

introduction of a 150MW hydro

plant

* Cost does not include transmission, distribution and debt payment (c.LKR 3.8 in 2013E)

HYDRO 37% -

LKR 0/KWh

OTHER 4% - LKR

18/KWh

COAL 15% - LKR8.3/KWh

THERMAL 44% -

LKR 23/KWh

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Energy Generation Mix 2013E

G

Wh

Thermal Other Coal Hydro


26/42

A c.15% contribution from coal would require c.70%1capacity utilization at the 300MW coal plant...


The 300MW coalpower plant may

produce c.2,600GWh of power if at

full capacity. CAL

assumes a capacity

factor ofc.70% in

2013E, which wouldtranslate into

c.600k tons of coalrequired, resulting

in coal providing

c.15% of the energy

mix

1The PUCSL has estimated a

c.70% capacity factor for the

coal plant in 2013

c.60%

c.70%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2012E 2013E

GW

h

Utilization Excess Capacity


27/42

which may reduce the required price increase to

break even to only c.25%


CAL has assumed coal to form c.15% of the energy mix in 2013E (c.9% of the energy mix in 2011)

Cost incorporates peak/off-peak energy production allocation

2013EGross Generation

(GWh)

Generation

Cost/MWh (LKR)

Avg. Sales

Price/MWh (LKR)

Profit/(Shortfall)

(LKR)

Price AdjustmentRequired/MWh

(LKR)

Thermal 5,800 33,900 13,600 (75,000,000) 21,000

Hydro 4,800 - 13,600 65,000,000 13,600

Coal 1,900 8,300 13,600 10,200,000 13,600

Price Adjustment

Required 17,000

Price adjustment does not include distribution, transmission and other costs (c.LKR 3.8/ KWh in 2013E)


28/42

III. OIL & WATER: RAINDROPSARENT ENOUGH

28


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Oil & Water: Raindrops arent enough

In 2012, overc.30% of Sri Lankas import bill was for petroleumproducts

However, only c.20% of Sri Lanka petroleum imports go towards powergeneration

Even when hydro comprised c.53% of power generated in 2010(highest rainfall in past 10 years)

savings from petroleum imports for power generation amounted tojust c.USD 146mn

A 60% (vs. 37% expected) hydro contribution might result in a c.USD660mn savings in 2013E

CALs 2013E includes a c.USD 180mn savings due to greater coal-firedpower and normal 3500mm rainfall

29


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In 2012, overc.30% of Sri Lankas import billwas for petroleum products

30Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, CBSL and CAL Research

As a result of

sanctions on

Iranian oil

exports, the

overall cost

of oil imports

in 2012 rose

to c.30% of

the totalimport bill

75% 78% 76% 75%68%

25% 22% 24% 25%32%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Rest Oil's portion of import bill

10.2 13.5 20.3 19.1Import

Bill USD(bn)

14.1


31/42

However, only c.20% of Sri Lanka petroleumimports go towards power generation


Majority of

petroleum

imports are

required to driveeconomic growth

and not power

plants. As real

GDP grows, the

amount of fuel

needed by the

private sector will

increase

3,426 3,4224,252

5,5796,469

7,501

1,320 1,326

1,021

1,385

1,606

1,862

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

MillionsLitres

Oil Imports for other (Litres) Oil Imports for Power (Litres)


32/42

Even when hydro comprised c.53% of power generatedin 2010 (highest rainfall in past ten years)


Over the past 10years, the

average

contribution

from Hydro has

been c.40% andthermal has

been c.57% tototal power

generated

* Renewables include

wind and mini-hydro

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

GWh

Hydro (GWh) Thermal (GWh)Renewables (GWh) Coal (GWh)Average rainfall catchment (mm)-RHS


33/42

savings from petroleum imports for power

generation amounted to just USD 146mn


The avg. price per

barrel of oil increased

by 26% in 2010, partly

offsetting the savings

from the volume

decline

491,161

146,416

(21,128)

(100,000)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

USDThousan

ds

Cost at 2009 prices

Savings due to

volume decline

Additional

cost in 2010 due to

oil price increase


34/42

A 60% (vs. 37% expected) hydro contribution might

result in a c.USD 660mn savings in 2013E


Even with a 40%+ increase in rainfall from our base case of 3500mm, savings

would amount to only c.USD 660mn (c.10% of the 2012 and c.11% of CALsexpected 2013 petroleum import bill)

CAL has assumed petroleum price/barrel for Sri Lanka to be USD 117 in 2013E

CAL expects energy generation by sources other than thermal oil and hydro to amount to c.20% in our 2013E base case (of

which c.15% is from coal)

2010 2011 2012E2013E Base*+25%

Rainfall+45%

Rainfall

Rainfall (mm) 4,333 3,217 3,493 3,500 4,375 5,735

Fuel for power

generation (thsd ltrs) 1,021,360 1,385,000 1,414,174 1,622,389 1,287,422 766,884

Savings due to volumedecline (USD) 146,416,336 (219,477,611) (20,869,888) (159,862,971) 257,180,277 656,838,682

% Hydro Contribution

to Power 53% 35% 35% 37% 46% 60%

* Base case: 3500mm rainfall is the average rainfall for the past 10 years


35/42

CALs 2013E includes a c.USD 180mn savings due togreater coal-fired power and normal rainfall of 3500mm


CALs 2013E includes a c.USD 180mn savings from the decline in fuel used due to

an increase in coal generated power. CAL assumes c.15% of energy needs in 2013to be provided by coal

CAL has assumed petroleum price/barrel for Sri Lanka to be USD 117 in 2013E

CAL expects energy generation by sources other than thermal oil and hydro to amount to c.20% in our 2013E base case (of

which c.15% from coal)

2011 2012E 2013E

Power from Coal (GWh) 1,028 1,535 1,918

Coal Used (MT) 435,502 479,347 599,184

Fuel Saved (ltrs mn) 277 192 240

USD Savings (mn) 163 147 176

* The PUCSL has estimated a c.70% capacity factor for the coal plant in 2013


36/42

APPENDIX 1: SOBERING STATS

36


37/42

Appendix 1: Sobering Stats

2013 Jan-Jun PUCSL estimates c.LKR 20/KWh blendedcost

Energy losses in transmission and distribution have

averaged a high 18% since 2006

Historical coal prices and futures suggest actual 2013

supply costs could be below PUCSLs USD 140/MT est.

37


38/42

2013 Jan-Jun PUCSL estimates LKR20/KWh blended cost


Plant (Cost/KWh)-LKR January February March April May June

CEB Hydro Mainly in the Central Province - - - - - -

GTSM Kolonnawa (Colombo District) 69.2 66.6

DSP Sapugaskanda (Gampaha District) 19.1 19.5 19.1 25.1 25.0 25.1DSPX Sapugaskanda (Gampaha District) 17.7 18.0 17.7 23.5 23.4 23.5

DAPL Sapugaskanda (Gampaha District) 15.1 15.1 15.1 26.3 26.2 26.2

CCKP Wellampitiya (Colombo District) 24.9 25.2 25.7 24.3 26.1 31.2

CAES Wellampitiya (Colombo District) 25.9 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.6 25.9

DCPL A Barge in Colombo Port (Colombo District) 16.9 16.9 16.9 24.5 24.5 24.5

DPUT Puttlam (Puttlam District) 17.0 17.1 17.0 21.3 21.3 21.3

DEMB Embilipitiya (Ratnapura District) 17.4 17.5 17.4 23.5 23.4 23.5

CCKW Wattala (Gampaha District) 18.7 18.7 18.7 24.3 24.3 24.4

CPUT Puttlam (Puttlam District) 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3

RENW Small plants across the island 16.7 18.6 18.6 18.4 17.0 18.2

GT7 Kolonnawa (Colombo District) - 39.0 39.0 - - -

DCHU Jaffna (Jaffna District) 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5

DAGG Jaffna (Jaffna District) 22.4 29.5 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0

DNOR Jaffna (Jaffna District) 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2

DNCHU Jaffna (Jaffna District) 15.2 15.2 15.2 21.0 21.0 21.0

Monthly Energy Cost (LKR mn) 13,697 12,934 14,334 14,100 14,688 15,463

Cost/KWh-Thermal 20.0 21.0 20.9 24.1 24.4 25.4

Cost/KWh-RENW 16.7 18.6 18.6 18.4 17.0 18.2

Cost/KWh-Gas Turbines - 41.4 42.0 - - -

Cost/Kwh-Hydro - - - - - -

Cost/KWh-Combined 13.2 13.4 13.3 14.1 13.7 14.7

Capacity Generation Cost 2.43

Transmission, Distribution & Debt Cost/KWh 3.81

Total Cost/KWh 6-mos 20.0

Capacity generation and transmission, distribution and debt costs are for the whole year (2013).Cost/KWh for generation only is LKR 16.2 for the 6-mos

Cost/KWh is based on expected generation by the specified plant for the specified month


39/42

Energy losses in transmission and distribution have

averaged a high 18% since 2006


7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

GWh

Gross Generation (GWh) Power Sold (GWh)


40/42

Historical coal prices and futures suggest actual 2013

supply costs could be below PUCLs c.USD 140/MT est.

40Source: IndexMundi, NYMEX, CAL Research

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

U

SD/Ton

For 2013E, the PUCSLs estimated coal price: c.USD 140/MT (including freight)

Australian Thermal Coal (FOB)

Indonesian Coal Prices (Sub-bituminous; FOB)

Central Appalachian Coal (FOB)


41/42

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information,

internally developed data and other sources, believed to be reliable. Capital Alliance Securities

(Private) Limited however does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and

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