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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Prediction

Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP

February 08, 2016

For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

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Outline• Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions• Monsoon Prediction• Summary• Climatology

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Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts was generally at near normal levels across India, was a mixed pattern across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, the Philippines and over Indonesia. However, eastern China had received excessively above normal rainfall, while Papa New Guinea and northern Australia had generally received below normal rainfall, except sporadically there were some above normal spots.

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Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days

For the past 30 days the rainfall situation is very similar to the recent 90 days, except that the rainfall deficit over the Philippines, Papa New Guinea and northern Australia is more severe.

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Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days

In this past week, rainfall over the entire has been generally below normal, including southeastern China consistent with the forecast where it was consistently above normal for the past several weeks (see 90 day and 30 maps). Rainfall over northern Australia was also below normal this past week.

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Atmospheric Circulation

Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

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Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes

The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

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NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2

Week-1

Week-2

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NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2

Week-1

Week-2

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SummaryFor the past 90 days rainfall amounts was generally at near normal levels across India, was a mixed pattern across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, the Philippines and over Indonesia. However, eastern China had received excessively above normal rainfall, while Papa New Guinea and northern Australia had generally received below normal rainfall, except sporadically there were some above normal spots. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation is very similar to the recent 90 days, except that the rainfall deficit over the Philippines, Papa New Guinea and northern Australia is more severe.

In this past week, rainfall over the entire has been generally below normal, including southeastern China consistent with the forecast where it was consistently above normal for the past several weeks (see 90 day and 30 maps). Rainfall over northern Australia was also below normal this past week. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting generally below normal rainfall across the entire winter monsoon regions, particularly over Australia.

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Demise of the Asian MonsoonDemise of the Asian Monsoon

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Onset of the Australian MonsoonOnset of the Australian Monsoon

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ClimatologyClimatology