The `Arab Spring`:a Democratization Story?

Hirotaka ONO Mingxuan YU

International Relations Spring 2013 2013.6.5

Content Introduction of the Arab Spring Causes The first trigger of the Arab Spring. Major Events Impact of the Arab Spring Democratization theory and the Arab Spring US Strategy Question Argument

Introduction of the Arab Spring

The Arab Spring is the series of protests and demonstrations across the Middle East and North Africa that began on December 18th,2010.

Until June,2012,rulers have been forced from power in four countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

Causes Dictatorship or absolute monarchy Human rights violations Political corruption Economic decline Unemployment Extreme poverty

The first trigger of Arab Spring・ Self- immolation on December, 2010 A Tunisian guy burned himself to death with

gasoline . A video was taken of this event.

→ 　 Some demonstrations were held for him. → 　 The police fired bullets against protesters.

This provoked widespread uprisings across

Tunisia.

Major events ・ Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen.→toppled the governments.

・ Jordan, Morocco, Oman→Modest protests led to some tentative reform.

・ Algeria→Protests vanished early on. They were

exhausted from years of brutal civil wars.

Major events ・ Bahrain, Saudi Arabia→ got stern crackdown from the

governments.

・ Syria→ evolved into civil war, killing over

80,000 people.

Impact of the Arab Spring People have 21st satellite television,

modern communications technology and social media.

↓ All governments need genuine

political and economic reform, but not propagandas to trick the public.

Democratization theory and the Arab Spring Three topics that have been illuminated

by the events of the Arab Spring.

Democratization theory and the Arab Spring

1.The relationship between democracy and religion.

Democratization theory and the Arab Spring

What was needed for both democracy and religion to coexist?

The answer was a significant degree of institutional differentiation between religion and the state.

Twin Tolerations Multiple Secularisms

Democratization theory and the Arab Spring

2.The character of hybird regims that mix authoritarian and democratic elements.

Democratization theory and the Arab Spring

Five regime types: democratic, authoritarian, totalitarian, posttotalitarian and sultanistic.

A new sixth type: the `authoritarian – democratic hybird` regime.

Democratization theory and the Arab Spring

Why do we name it as hybird? Answer: They never had a fully

institutionalized totalitarian regime. They can no longer be adequately

characterized as authoritarian or sultanistic, either.

They are not or not yet democracies.

Democratization theory and the Arab Spring

3.The nature of `sultanism` and its implications for transitions to democracy.

Democratization theory and the Arab Spring

The ruler`s near – complete personal discretion is a hallmark of sultanism.

For example, Rafael Trujillo, the dictator of the Dominican Republic from 1930 to 1961, made his son a brigadier general when the boy was nine. This is sultanism.

Democratization theory and the Arab Spring

Before the Arab upheavals of 2011, the regimes in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Egypt and Tunisia all displayed some features of sultanism.

For example, in Tunisia, Ben Ali let his wife and her family treat the Tunisian economy as their personal property.

U.S. strategy after the Arab UprisingIntroduction: in intervening in the

Middle East.

U.S national interests

5 dilemmas

3 approaches

U.S. national interests1. Protect the U.S homeland from terrorism & weapons of mass

destruction.

2. Ensure the flow of oil

3. Ensure the safety of Israel, the U.S ally

5 dilemmas 1 Oil vs Political reform To ensure the flow of oil, the U.S has to

rely on its allies. But They are reluctant about political reform.

2 Terrorism vs Terrorist's propagandas To combat terrorism, the U.S wants to

operate in the Middle East. But The U.S presence in the Middle East gives

terrorists good propagandas.

5 dilemmas 3 Israel vs Other Arab countries The U.S wants to favor Israel over

Palestinians. But This unbalanced approach angers other

Arab countries.

4 Syria vs Military resource. The U.S intervention in Syria might

accelerate the end of civil wars. But The U.S is exhausted from Iraq war.

5 dilemmas 5 Democratic reform vs

Undemocratic allies. To spread democracy, the U.S wants

to push political and economic reform. But The U.S partners in the Middle East

will react harshly, accusing the U.S of interfering in domestic matters.

3 U.S approaches 1. Primacist

Approach:・ Favor a muscular and militant approach, ・ Enhance American power and hard security interests rather than supporting democratic change.

3 U.S. approaches2. Off shore balancing

Approach: ・ Work indirectly through U.S allies and partners to maintain a balance of power favorable to American interests. ・ Not ambitious about the political reform

3 U.S. approaches 3. Progressive engagement: the best

strategy

Approach:・ Encourage the emergence of strong, democratic partners.・ Draw down the U.S. military presence.

Conclusion :More assertive Obama should clearly propose

American’s policy direction.

The direction: The U.S. will push for greater respect

for human rights and democratic participation,

not pursuing deeper military involvement.

Question Is Arab Spring the forth democracy? Our answers. Answers of you.

Argument What do you think of America`s

intention in the Middle East?

Thank you for listening.