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The American Election 2012

Arthur Hall Nümbrecht 6th November 2012

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Let me tell you a little story…

On inauguration day in January 2009Barack Hussein Obama

the 47 year-old son of a white Kansan and a black Kenyana highly talented man but of limited political experience

from Illinoisbecame the 44th President of the United States

then President Obama and his wife and children slept at the 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue White House

it was a white house built by black men

slaves of West African heritage

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Let me tell you another little story

• Also in 2009: A Burning Question

• Did Mitt Romney pay any taxes in 2009?• Romney's refusal to release tax returns prior to

2010 has both parties thinking he has something to hide. One theory is that he didn't pay a penny in taxes in 2009

• Best Opinion: Businessweek, Bloomberg View, Washington Post

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Mitt Romney at a fund raising dinner…

• Q&A behind closed doors at the $50,000-per-plate fundraiser in Boca Raton on May 17 2012

• On the 47 percent of Americans he regards as moochers:

• "There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it."

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Mitt Romney on the Palestinians…

On the "almost unthinkable" prospects for Mideast peace:"And I look at the Palestinians not wanting to see peace anyway, for political purposes, committed to the destruction and elimination of Israel, and these thorny issues, and I say there's just no way."

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1University of California $1,079,526

2Microsoft Corp $761,343

3 Google Inc $737,055

4US Government $614,665

5Harvard University $602,992

Goldman Sachs $994,139

Bank of America $921,839

Morgan Stanley $827,255

JPMorgan Chase & Co $792,147

Credit Suisse Group $618,941

Overall Election Spending 2012

OBAMA TEAM$924,798,889

ROMNEY TEAM$974,905,862

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• Mitt Romney is basing his presidential campaign largely on his success as a businessperson building Bain Capital into a leading private equity company

• While it is questionable how much success in business prepares a person for success in the White House (Herbert Hoover was the last president with notable success as a businessperson)

• It is important to understand that Mr. Romney is not a successful business person in the same way as other people who have built successful companies

Mitt Romney as successful businessman

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How Romney made his money• Private equity companies like Bain Capital are not primarily about

producing wealth

• They profit largely by siphoning off wealth created elsewhere in the economy. There are many different ways in which this diversion of wealth is accomplished. The simplest and most common trick is gaming the tax code.

• It is absolutely standard practice for private equity companies to immediately load up the companies they acquire with debt.

• This has two benefits for the PE company. First, it allows them to get most of their money back right away. They end up with a heavily leveraged company, where the PE company is still in control, but has little of its own money at risk.

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How Obama made his money• In his 2004 financial statements, Barack Obama indicated that

he had three sources of income. One was an $80,287 salary from the Illinois Senate, where he was a state senator

• The other was a $32,144 salary from the University of Chicago Law School, where Obama taught as a lecturer while he was in the statehouse

• The third was Michelle's salary from the University of Chicago Hospitals, where she was an administrator

• Later, he made a fortune from the two books he wrote about his life and he invested it wisely

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Candidate‘s Personal Wealth

The Obamas• Barack and Michelle

Obama have assets worth up between $2.6m and $8.3m, according to financial disclosure forms for 2011 made public by the White House

• Obama's assets show he is far from being an average American

Mitt Romney• Mitt Romney, estimated at

over $200m• Refused to publish tax

returns for 2009

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EconomyObama Romney

• Plan centres on tax cuts• Repeal of Obama's 2010

healthcare reform law • Repeal of 2010 Wall Street and

banking regulations, and in general the reduction of other regulations he says stifle economic growth

• Opposed the auto industry bailout

• Proposes to reduce federal spending significantly but gives few details about which programmes he would cut

• Signed the stimulus, a $768bn package of tax cuts and investment in education, infrastructure, energy research, health, and other programmes

• Backed a bailout of the US auto industry

• Signed trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and South Korea

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Healthcare

Obama• Vast 2010 healthcare reform law

aims for universal health insurance coverage by requiring individuals who are not otherwise covered to purchase insurance

• Restricted insurers' ability to deny coverage based on pre-existing ailments

• The law offers states grants to increase enrolment of poor people in the Medicaid public insurance programme

Romney• Would seek repeal of Mr Obama's

health law, though it is modelled on a law he signed in Massachusetts

• Would return most health policy to the states

• Would limit doctor malpractice lawsuits

• Would encourage individuals without insurance to buy it on the private market, including by purchasing it in other states with lighter coverage requirements and lower costs

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Taxes

Obama• Has cut effective taxes for

most Americans• Would repeal Bush-era tax

cuts for households making more than $250,000 a year

• proposes the "Buffet rule" named for billionaire Warren Buffet, which would increase the effective tax rate paid by millionaires

Romney• Would make permanent all Bush-era

tax cuts• Further cut individual income tax

rates• Eliminate taxes on investment

income• repeal the estate tax, and reduce the

corporate income tax rate• According to the non-partisan Tax

Policy Center, taxpayers at high income levels would see the greatest benefit. Would make up the revenue by closing unnamed tax loopholes

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Iran

Obama• Says he is determined to prevent

Iran from developing a nuclear weapon

• Opposes a near-term military strike by US or Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities

• emphasises need for a diplomatic solution but warns "that window is closing" and has said "all options are at the table“

• signed new sanctions against Iran's central bank, oil revenues and financial system

Romney• Says it is unacceptable for Iran

to possess a nuclear weapon• Says military action "remains

on the table" and analysts say he presents a clearer military threat to Iran

• Would send Navy ships to patrol the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf; calls for more sanctions; would publicly back Iranian opposition groups

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National security and war

Obama• Has killed much of al-

Qaeda's leadership, including Osama Bin Laden

• Pulled US troops out of Iraq• Agreed to a $487m

reduction in defence spending over 10 years with congressional Republicans

Romney• Would spend heavily on

military hardware and invest in missile defence

• Add an estimated $100bn to the Pentagon's budget

• Reduce the civilian defence bureaucracy

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Afghanistan

Obama• Initially increased the

number of troops in Afghanistan; has begun a draw-down of US troops with the combat mission to end by 2014

Romney• Has said his "goal" would be

"a successful transition to Afghan security forces by the end of 2014"

• But pledges to review withdrawal plans and base them "on conditions on the ground as assessed by our military commanders"

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Illegal Immigration

Obama• Used executive power to

grant legal status to certain young illegal immigrants

• Bypassing Republicans in Congress

• Has dramatically increased deportations of illegal immigrants

Romney• Criticises Mr Obama's

"stopgap" measure on young illegal immigrants but does not say whether he would overturn it

• Says the US should encourage migrants to "self-deport" by making life hard for them

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AbortionObama

• Supports abortion rights• Appointed two Supreme

Court justices who appear to favour abortion rights

Romney

• Says "My presidency will be a pro-life presidency”

• He supported abortion rights when he was running for governor Massachusetts in 2002

• Supports overturning the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court ruling legalising abortion and allowing states to decide whether abortion should be legal

• Would strip federal funding from Planned Parenthood women's health clinics

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Energy

Obama• Supports investment in clean

energy such as wind turbines and advanced car batteries

• Tightened car fuel efficiency and emissions standards

• Blocked development of the Keystone oil pipeline to move oil sands crude from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico

• Says the US had not had sufficient time to judge its environmental impact

Romney• Would ease regulations

preventing coal-burning power plants, oil exploration and nuclear power plant construction

• Would encourage drilling for oil in the Atlantic and Pacific outer continental shelves

• Proposes to ease regulations• Pledges to build the Keystone

pipeline

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Key States to watch with Electoral College votes

• Colorado• Florida• Iowa• New Hampshire

• Ohio

• Virginia• Wisconsin

• 9• 29• 6• 4

• 18In recent elections, the Buckeye State has proved itself to be a remarkably good predictor of the election winner. Since 1944, Ohioans have sided with the losing candidate only once – opting for Nixon over Kennedy in 1960

• 13• 10

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And then came the results - all except Florida (tomorrow with 27 electoral college votes)

And then came the results …

Presidential 270 to win

303 Obama 206 Romney

Obama 60,447,060 votes (50.4%)Romney 57,644,747 votes (48.1%)

Senate (upper) 54 Democrats (up 1)45 Republicans (down 2)

House (lower) 195 Democrats (up 2) 234 Republicans (down 8)

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• Obama Website:• www.barackobama.com

• Romney Website:• www.mittromney.com

More information

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map