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The Agricultural Growth and Development Policy (AGRODEP) Modeling Consortium_2009
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Transcript of The Agricultural Growth and Development Policy (AGRODEP) Modeling Consortium_2009
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
THE AGRICULTURAL
GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY (AGRODEP)
MODELING CONSORTIUM
T. Ngaido, O. Badiane, M. Torrero, and A. Bouet
International Food Policy Research Institute
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2
• POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
• GROWING DEMAND FOR ANALYTICAL CAPACITY
• THE AGRODEP CONCEPT
• MODELING STRUCTURE
• GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE
OUTLINE
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3
POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
• GLOBALIZATION: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RESPONSES
• RECENT GROWTH RECOVERY: STRATEGIC LESSONS
• CAADP: KNOWLEDGE CONTENT AND REQUIREMENTS
• 6% GROWTH TARGET: GROWTH OPTIONS AND POVERTY IMPACTS
• 10 % BUDGET: PE TRACKING AND EFFICIENCY
• POLICY RENEWAL: PEER REVIEW, BENCHMARKING, AND LEARNING
• AFRICA FACES NEW CHALLENGES INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE,
ENERGY CRISIS, AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 4
GROWING DEMAND FOR ANALYTICAL CAPACITY
• LINKING UP WITH GLOBAL MODELS• BETTER REPRESENTATION AND CUSTOMIZATION OF AFRICA
• CREATING CRITICAL MASS OF SKILLS• ACQUISITION AND UPGRADING OF MODELING TOOLS
• ENHANCING DATA AVAILABILITY• LINK UP AND ADD VALUE TO DIFFERENT DATASETS
• COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS• CONNECTING RESEARCHING
• USING EXISTING SKILLS
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 5
THE AGRODEP CONCEPT
• SPONSORSHIP
• MODELING STRUCTURE AND TOOLS
• DATA INFRASTRUCTURE
• MEMBERSHIP, NETWORKING, PARTNERSHIP
• COORDINATION AND GOVERNANCE
MODELING STRUCTURE
Page 6
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
OVERALL AGRODEP MODELING STRUCTURE
• OPERATE AS A COORDINATION MECHANISM, BUILDING UPON
EXISTING INSTITUTIONS AND NETWORKS
• INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING KEY COMPONENTS:– A) A SHARED MODELING INFRASTRUCTURE
– B) A COMMON DISTRIBUTED DATABASE
– C) A NETWORK OF EXPERTS
– D) A COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
A Shared Modeling Infrastructure
• CONSOLIDATED CORE OF EXISTING MODELS DEALING WITH
SECTOR, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL POLICY ISSUES AND LONG
TERM PROJECTIONS
• POTENTIAL POINT OF DEPARTURE: A SET OF MODELS USED
AND/OR ELABORATED AT IFPRI: - MIRAGE MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMY (MULTI-COUNTRY MULTI-SECTOR
COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL),
- IFPRI SINGLE-COUNTRY COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
ELABORATED BY LOFGREN, HARRIS AND ROBINSON (LHR),
- IMPACT MODEL (MULTI-SECTOR PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL DEVOTED TO
ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS DEALING WITH LONG
TERM PROJECTIONS)
• OTHER MODELS CAN BE INCLUDED IN THIS LIST VERY SOON: THE
GTAP MODEL, THE EMM MODEL.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
A COMMON DISTRIBUTED DATABASE
• CONSTITUTION OF A NEW GIANT DATABASE WOULD BE A VERY
RISKY AND COSTLY PROJECT
• BETTER TO LINK EXISTING KEY DATA SOURCES, COMPLEMENT IF
NECESSARY AND DEVELOP SHARED STANDARDS, FORMATS, AND
EXCHANGE PROTOCOLS
• A FIRST SET OF DATABASES CAN INCLUDE: - SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIXES AND HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS AVAILABLE AT
IFPRI,
- GTAP DATABASE ON MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS,
- MACMAP DATABASE ON MARKET ACCESS,
- CEPII DATABASES ON TRADE (BACI), GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS (CHELEM -
CEPII)…
- DATA ON AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
A NETWORK OF EXPERTS
• CONSORTIUM WOULD BUILD ON EXISTING AFRICAN
ORGANIZATIONS (ASARECA, CORAF, FANRPAN…) AS WELL AS
LEADING UNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH ENTITIES (PRIVATE AND
PUBLIC)
• ALSO LINK UP WITH OTHER LEADING CENTERS OF EXPERTISE, – CG CENTERS,
– RESEARCH CENTERS IN EUROPE (CEPII, LEI…),
– UNIVERSITIES IN NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE (PURDUE UNIVERSITY, LAVAL
UNIVERSITY, PARIS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS…)
– OTHER GLOBAL MODELING CONSORTIA: GTAP, PEP.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
A COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS
A SET OF SPECIFIC STAKEHOLDERS AND INTEREST GROUPS WOULD
BE ESTABLISHED…
• TECHNICAL EXCHANGE;
• TRAINING AND CAPACITY BUILDING;
• STRATEGIC POLICY DEBATE.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
A PROPOSED MODELING ARCHITECTURE
GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE
Page 13
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
PROGRAM GOVERNANCE AND COORDINATION
CLEAR MECHANISM FOR GOVERNANCE, COUNSEL, AND INTER-INSTITUTIONAL COORDINATION
• STEERING COMMITTEE (MADE UP OF KEY AFRICAN PARTNERS) DECIDES AND GUIDES ON KEY MATTERS OF POLICY, PLANNING AND RESOURCE MOBILIZATION
• SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY BOARD PROVIDES INPUT TO TECHNICAL ISSUES (SCIENTIFIC PARTNERS)
• PROGRAM COORDINATORS HANDLE DAY-TO-DAY OPERATIONAL MATTERS, INCLUDING PROGRAM COORDINATION, PROJECT DEVELOPMENT, PREPARATION AND IMPLEMENTATION, AND FIELDING JOINT MISSIONS TO SUPERVISE ON-GOING OPERATIONS
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
PROGRAM STRUCTURE
15
STEERING
COMMITTEE
SCIENTIFIC
ADVISORY
BOARD
PROGRAM
COORDINATORS
NSO
NSO
NSO
NSO
CS
CS
CS
CS
DA
TA
DE
VE
LO
PM
EN
T A
T
CO
UN
TR
Y L
EV
EL
CO
UN
TR
Y
MO
DE
LIN
G
CH
AM
PIO
NS
NE
TW
OR
K
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
PROGRAM DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION:
COUNTRY-SPECIFIC PROGRAMS
• COUNTRIES (COUNTRY MODELING CHAMPIONS) IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT AND EXTENSIVE CONSULTATION WITH KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO FOSTER COUNTRY BUY-IN AND OWNERSHIP
• MORE EMPHASIS ON BUILDING CAPACITY TO PLAN AND IMPLEMENT NEEDED DATA AND USE AND BE ABLE TO MODIFY STARTING MINIMUM MODELING TOOLS
• BUILDING ON THE EXISTING CAPACITY – START FROM THE WEAKEST LINK AND MOVE ON TO OTHERS
• INTERACTION OF PRODUCERS (SUPPLIERS) AND USERS (CLIENTS) OF DATA INCREASES LONG-TERM VIABILITY OF THE PROGRAM
• PROMOTE “CULTURE OF STATISTICS” AND DEMOCRATIZATION OF DATA ACCESS (OPEN DATA ACCESS POLICY – PRE-CONDITIONS FOR PARTICIPATION IN AGRODEP
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
PROGRAM DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION:
REGIONAL TRAINING, WORKSHOPS AND DATA BANK
• REGIONAL WORKSHOPS/SEMINARS (AGRODEP LED)• LEARN THE LATEST TECHNIQUES FROM WORLD EXPERTS
• SHARE AND DISSEMINATE BEST PRACTICES
• EXCELLENT VENUE FOR PEER LEARNING, NETWORKING AND ORGANIZING HORIZONTAL COOPERATION
• REGIONAL TRAINING PROGRAM COURSES (AGRODEP LED)• A STRUCTURED KNOWLEDGE BUILDING ON STARTING MODELING TOOLS. THIS
MINIMUM CORE OF MODELING TOOLS COULD INCREASE OVER TIME
• REGIONAL DATA BANK• NEEDED VALUE ADDED FOR DATA USERS BY INTRODUCING STANDARDIZED DATA
LABELING AND VERY DETAIL DOCUMENTATION OF DATA SETS
• DATA ACCESS AND DISSEMINATION MADE EASY
• CERTIFICATION ROLE OF AGRODEP
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 18
Data Dissemination Toolkit
Websites
CD-ROMs, DVDs
On-line analysis
Data
documentation
XML metadata
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Next steps
• DAKAR WORKSHOP
• PARTICIPANTS: 37
• INSTITUTIONS• IFPRI, CIRAD, UNECA, CORAF, LAVAL University, CRES, ISRA, Institute Hassan II,
FAO, University of the Free state, University of Pretoria, University of Nairobi, Universite
Catholique de Louvain, CMA/WCA, IRD, University of Ghana, CIRAD, CEPII, Center for
World Food studies, ASARECA, GTAP
• Countries• USA, France, Ethiopia, Senegal, Canada, Senegal, Senegal, Morocco, Italy
• South Africa, South Africa, Kenya, Belgium, Senegal, Ghana, France, France,
Netherlands, Uganda, USA
• WORKSHOP REPORTS (JANUARY)
• PROPOSAL DEVELOPMENT (FEBRUARY)
Page 19