The Age of Vehicle Automation: Opportunities for ... · —Global professional services firm with...
Transcript of The Age of Vehicle Automation: Opportunities for ... · —Global professional services firm with...
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The Age of Vehicle Automation:
Opportunities for Transportation Providers
BusCon 2017Indianapolis, IndianaSeptember 12, 2017
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About WSP (formerly WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff)
— Global professional services firm with over 35,000 employees
— Portfolio in Transportation, Buildings, Power/Energy and Environmental sectors
— Over ten years of active practice in connected/ automated vehicle market
McityAnn Arbor, Michigan(Source: University of Michigan)
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The Race to Driverless
Source: Google
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The Race to Driverless
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Traffic Safety
What if cars (and trucks, and buses…) no longer crashed?
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AV
ON
LYChanges in Roadway Capacity
Under low-volume conditions, vehicles travel at high speeds with sufficient spacing
As volume increases, speed decreases as vehicle headways decrease
If AVs could operate at high speed with low headways, huge potential capacity increases
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IS THIS OUR FUTURE?
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Changes in Demand & Opportunity
Will new segments of the population become “drivers?”
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Changes in Car Ownership Model
What if this…
…increasingly became this
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Potential to Change the Car Ownership Paradigm
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Coupling of AV and Electrification
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Ford plans to have a “Level 4 vehicle in 2021, no gas pedal, no steering wheel…”
- Former Ford Motor Company CEO Mark Fields
“We believe we have the chance to make level three, level four and level five doable [in 2021]”
- BMW“Bosch said it saw level three vehicles being released…at the end of the decade, and level four driving not before 2025”
- Reuters
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Levels of Automation
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Is this a connected car?
Source: Google
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AV≠CV+1
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What is connected?
Cooperative communications systemsLinking vehicles together, to the roadside, and to the “cloud” Interoperable systems that work across all equipment and
manufacturers
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CV and AV on a collision course
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— AV “sees” with sensors and must interpret environment
— Sensors detect green indication, computer knows green means GO
— No context beyond what human driver can see
Role of CV in the AV Space
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— In a CV environment, the other vehicles and the traffic signal are “talking” to the AV:— Phase state— Time to phase
change— Real-time
optimal progression speed
— Real-time route guidance based on signal delay
— Identification of hazards out of the view of sensor systems
Role of CV in the AV Space
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What is happening in reality today?
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Connected Vehicle Pilot Deployments
Four major Federal connected vehicle pilot programs underway: Ann Arbor Connected Vehicle
Test Environment (AACVTE) Tampa (THEA) Pilot Wyoming/ICF Pilot New York City Pilot
Many other smaller Federal, State and Local deployments
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• Extensive connected traffic signal system to support enhanced bus rapid transit
• Electrified Automated Vehicle (EAV) to serve as circulator for Easton commercial district
• Transit kiosks to link community to technology and on-demand services
Smart Columbus Initiative
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Uber Driverless Testing, Pittsburgh
— Pilot of driverless vehicles with actual customers
— Back-up driver and researcher in vehicle at all times
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Automated Shuttles
Source: University of Michigan
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Federally Designated AV Proving Grounds
• Pittsburgh/PTI
• Texas AV Proving Ground Partnership
• U.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center
• American Center for Mobility
• GoMentum Station
• SANDAG
• Iowa City ADG
• U. of Wisconsin
• Central Florida AV Partners
• North Carolina Turnpike
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Truck Platooning
Source: Peloton
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Should we believe the
hype?
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AUTOMATED TAXIS SAID TO PROVIDE
AFFORDABLE TRANSPORT FOR ALL
EXTRA! EXTRA!DRIVERLESS CARS SIGNAL THE DEATH
OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
AUTONOMOUS CARS DECLARED
SOLUTION TO ALL MOBILITY PROBLEMS
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SOS
hiny
bject
yndrome
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It’s not just about the technology…
Auto Industry Disruption?
Acceptance of “Computer Driver”?
Revenue Impacts?
Federal and State Regulation?
Legal Liability?
Initial AV Cost?Insurance Industry
Disruption?
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Public Acceptance
40,0002016 Traffic Fatalities
14%Increase from 2014
If C/AV technology reduced that to 35,000 fatalities in the future…
5,000Lives Saved?
OR
35,000Lives Taken by Flawed
Computers?
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Mobility as a Service Paradigm
Enabled Thru Automation
Distributed SharedMobility Model
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Enabled Thru Automation
Distributed SharedMobility Model
Efficiency is most
unresolved
Mobility as a Service Paradigm
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Tremendous efficiency opportunities for freeways
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…but this is MUCH harder
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Still living in a 9-5 society
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Travel Demand
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Vehicle Miles Traveled(Millions)
VMT Growth Rate:
1.6%Population Growth Rate:
0.8%
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AV Changes in Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT)
When driving time is “regained”, how far might you ride in your car to work?
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= AVX
Physical Street Space
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=
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— 49 Stories— 905,000 Square Feet— As many as 5,000 daily
occupants
Salesforce Tower,Indianapolis
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What happens at 5:00pm when 5,000 people catch their driverless taxi?
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Source: The Daily Beast
How does new mobility protect options for the elderly, disabled and economically disadvantaged?
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Do not oversimplify
the view of the future
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Technology + New Mobility Trends =
Opportunities for all Shared Transportation Providers
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Public/Campus Transportation
— New opportunities with on-demand services
— Right-sizing service with more flexible service offerings
— Public-Private Partnerships (P3) to handle high cost/ low demand trips (late night, low density, etc.)
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Elderly Mobility and Paratransit— On-demand
driverless transportation for those physically able
— Freeing up drivers to serve in a support capacity to passengers for assisted transportation
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Downtown Parking Transition— Parking for shared
fleets, electrification— Shuttling/transit to
remote staging?— Increased demand
for high-capacity service with more development?
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Airport Airside/ Landside Transportation
— Automation of inter-terminal shuttles
— Shuttling to remote staging for driverless vehicle services?
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What can you do to prepare?
— Consider how your business model and customer needs may change
— Look for opportunities to trial new technology
— Embrace shift towards electrification
— Educate both employees and customers
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Thank You
Scott Shogan, P.E., PTOEConnected/Automated Vehicle Market Leader, US Advisory Services
[email protected] 313.963.2808
Twitter: @ScottEShogan
wsp.com