The academic workforce in Higher Education: Workforce · PDF fileSharan Burrow Dr Michael...
Transcript of The academic workforce in Higher Education: Workforce · PDF fileSharan Burrow Dr Michael...
The academic workforce in Higher Education: Workforce
Futures
23 November 2009
Philip Bullock
Chair, Skills Australia
Overview
� Context - Now and tomorrow
� Connecting national goals - a workforce
development approach
� Planning for the future
� Managing uncertainty - ‘specialised’ occupations
� It’s not just skills, it’s whether they’re utilised
� Implications of a workforce development
strategy for higher education
� Where to next?
Skills Australia: focus on the future
Skills Australia will provide the Government with recommendations on current and future skills needs (and)
inform Australia’s workforce development needs … 1
Julia Gillard, Second Reading Speech, Skills Australia Bill 2008
� Professor Gerald Burke
� Sharan Burrow
� Dr Michael Keating AC
� Marie Persson
� Heather Ridout
� Keith Spence
Source:1 Julia Gillard, Second Reading Speech - Skills Australia Bill 2008 (14 Feb 2008)
Drivers of change
Culturally diverse / European influence
2000+ Beyond
SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
DEMOGRAPHY
“Smart planet”“Flat world”
Central themeEmerging
Growth / GFCGlobal /
Asia dependent
POLITICALLight touch / Stable
Ageing pop / Asian influence
Intervention / Stable
“Me” “Community”
Connecting skills with key national goals
Productivity
Fair workplaces
Participation
High skills
How can we best ensure Australia has the workforce capability required for a
productive, sustainable and inclusive future?
Remember the 80:20 Rule
21%
79%
a lot of difficulty no or some difficulty, or n/a
68%
32%
a shortage of skilled workers
other reason
About one fifth of employers said
they had ‘a lot of difficulty’ in
recruiting staff … and 68% of these
organisations said industry-wide
skill shortages was the reason 1
Source:
1 NCVER, Survey of Employer Use and Views of the VET System (SEUV), 2005, from DEEWR, Skills in Use Labour Market and Workplace Trends in Skills Usage in Australia (2008)
Workforce development must address multiple dimensions
Enterprise
Skills Utilisation How are skills used?
ParticipationWho is the potential
workforce?
Individual
Industry
National
Workforce Futures
Towards an Australian Workforce Development Strategy
“Those policies and
practices which
support people to
participate effectively
in the workforce and to
develop and apply
skills in a workplace
context
and where learning
translates into positive
outcomes
for enterprises, the
wider community and
individuals throughout
their working lives.”
Increasing skills
What skills do we need?
Planning for the future …
Australian Workforce Development Strategy
Workforce and education
trends
Modelling and projections
Planning for an uncertain future
3 Scenarios(Shell Group)
Analysis historic data
Workforce Futures - Overview and background papers
Where are we headed?
Where do we want to be?How do we get there?
Access Economics
Consultation with industry, providers, states/territories and peak bodies
Possible futures: workforce growth to 2025Access Economics modelling
Projected total employment growth rates 1
Source:
1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)
Number of people in the
Australian workforce in 2025 (based on the three scenarios):
Open Doors: 15.3 million
Low-trust
globalisation: 13.7 million
Flags: 12.5 million
Qualifications supply and demandAccess Economics modelling
Projected student supply (including net migration) less projected labour market demand
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Open Doors Low-trust Globalisation Flags
‘000 qualifications
Supply and demandAccess Economics modelling
THE THREE SCENARIOS
Open Doors Low-trust Globalisation
Flags
By 2015 Demand 770 000 Demand 646 000 Demand 540 000
Supply 533 000 Supply 524 000 Supply 506 000
BALANCE -237 000 BALANCE -122 000 BALANCE - 34 000
By 2025 Demand 828 000 Demand 645 000 Demand 500 000
Supply 659 000 Supply 620 000 Supply 556 000
BALANCE -169 000 BALANCE -25 000 BALANCE +56 000
The projected supply of students less the projected labour
market demand 1
However, skilled migration plays a significant role in supplementing the
supply of qualifications, and if it remains at current levels, these
deficits may be made up through Australia’s skilled migrant intake.
Source:
1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)
Initial education becomes less relevant over time; 38% enter structured course every year
‘Matching’ skills and jobs in fluid labour
markets?
People may not seek
or find careers in their field of learning
Skills are more than qualifications
40% end up in jobs which match their VET study
45% workers change
jobs every three years
Importance of generic, cognitive and
interpersonal skills in a
service-based economy
A targeted approach for ‘specialised’occupations
� Long lead time – those skills which are highly specialised
and require extended learning and preparation time� 4 years or more for HE courses; 3 years or more to achieve VET
qualification
� High use – those skills which are deployed for the uses
intended (that is, there is a good occupational ‘fit’)� There is a more than 50% match between the training and the
destination occupation
� Significant disruption – where the opportunity cost of the
skills being in short supply is high (eg registered nurse or doctor)
� High information – where the quality of information about
the occupation is adequate
PROPOSED CRITERIA
What are we finding?
� All of the education professions
� Plumbers, glaziers, carpenters
� Social and welfare professions
� Electricians, electronics & telcon
trades
� All of the health professions
� Mechanical engineering trades
Examples of some of the 23 ‘specialised’occupational groups identified …
‘Digging deeper’ on those occupations
identified…
� Profile who, where, what, of workforce and student
body (occupational structure, industry spread)
� Dynamics where are there issues? (who enters
education and industry, who leaves and why)
� Future needs industry advice on how job will
change; educational provider advice on the response
� Current action how effective are current strategies?
What more is needed?
But it’s not just about ‘the right’ skills: it’s whether they’re utilised
‘The ability to use
particular skills and
knowledge in the
production process, not
merely acquiring them,
is what really matters
for productivity and
income’Treasury: Perspectives on Australia’s productivity prospects, 2006
‘The ability to use
particular skills and
knowledge in the
production process, not
merely acquiring them,
is what really matters
for productivity and
income’Treasury: Perspectives on Australia’s productivity prospects, 2006
‘The fact that people at work are not given the opportunity to contribute to their full potential may well be the biggest skills and productivity crisis we face today' Society for Knowledge and Economics: Workplaces of the Future, 2009
‘The fact that people at work are not given the opportunity to contribute to their full potential may well be the biggest skills and productivity crisis we face today' Society for Knowledge and Economics: Workplaces of the Future, 2009
Evidence of skill under-use
People (numbers in ‘000 and %) with a non-school
qualification employed at a lower level 1
Paradoxes:
� 40% employers say workforce too skilled for
organisation’sneeds
� Employers still report
difficulty in recruiting
Source:
1 Skills Australia, Workforce Futures Background Paper Two (Oct 2009)
� > 1.5 million Australians under & unemployed
� > 1 million not in the workforce but want to work
� Labour force participation ranges from 61% to 73%
across states/territories, and the employment ‘gap’
between regions is widening
� Vulnerable groups face profound barriers, eg
Indigenous Australians (48% employment in 2006)
Workforce participation challenge
Implications for higher education
� Understanding & applying levers that can make a
difference to ready availability and uptake of skills
� For government:
� Factoring in targeted policy responses to specialised
occupations within a demand driven system (eg
sustain/grow/reduce supply?)
� Interventions at the institution level may not be sufficient (or
necessary?)
� How to effectively combine institutional responses with post
education/ industry/workplace incentives?
� For government & institutions:
� The role of compacts, performance funding, other
incentives/caps to leverage institutional responses
� Capacity/capability of academic workforce
� Effective teaching/learning responses
What does WFD mean for higher education?
� Increasing participation: intensive literacy/language
/numeracy; – collaborative pathways – regional - cluster models
� Skill utilisation: Revisiting institutional and faculty missions:
engagement and collaboration with industry, connecting to
workplaces, institutional & sectoral links
� Teaching and learning:
� Attracting and sustaining undergraduates (eg engineers)
� New models of delivery for ‘resistant’ (eg nursing)
occupations/emerging work trends in professions
� More work integrated learning (internships?)
� Maintaining professional relevance/currency; building industry
networks
� Cultivating 21st C higher level cognitive and technical skills –
across whole of career – not just at entry level
� Innovation: Connecting with industry/end–users; diffusing
research
Examples across Australia
Online tools for enterprises to assess training and/or workforce needs
Industry specific plans and resources
Research-industry partnerships
Job and training programs for unemployed
Business assistance programs
Where to next?
� Complete stakeholder consultations (Nov 2009)
� Publish findings and recommendations (early 2010)
� Some possible areas of focus …
� Overall skills/qualifications capacity (and role of
migration)
� ‘Whole of Governments” actionIt’s not just about training, eg ‘Keep Australia Working’
� Support for new jobs and new industries‘Green’ skills, technological changes
� Ongoing targeted focus on participationeg men of prime working age, Indigenous Australians
� Strengthened literacy and numeracy programsSpecial focus on existing workforce
� Underpinned by QUALITY providers