The 5 Keys to Demand Planning Success
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Transcript of The 5 Keys to Demand Planning Success
1 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Single Line of Sight: Plan, Perform, Profit
The 5 Keys to Demand Planning Success
April 29, 2014
2 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Today’s Presenter
Background
Doug Dedman brings more than 20 years of services, operations, supply chain
planning and S&OP expertise to Steelwedge. Prior to joining Steelwedge, Doug spent
18 years at DBM Systems.
While there, he was responsible for the development and growth of a global Sales and
Operations Planning (S&OP) consulting practice that specialized in helping
multinational corporations develop effective executive S&OP processes. He also held
roles in General Management, Program Management and operations and supply
chain consulting.
Doug has also served in the role of Senior Director Customer Management at
Steelwedge, with responsibility for executive sponsorship and overall customer
satisfaction and project quality. He holds a bachelor of arts in Honors Economics from
the University of Waterloo as well as an MBA from the Odette School of Business.
Doug Dedman VP, Global Services
Steelwedge Software Inc.
3825 Hopyard Rd
Pleasanton, CA 94588
Tel : (949) 460-1700
3 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Introduction
Separating Demand by Demand Type
Ensuring Accountability For Demand Plan
Prudent Use of Statistical Forecasting
Collaboration
Real Time Visibility Across Business
Summary and QA
Agenda
4 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
What is the purpose of Demand Planning?
• Input into developing a Financial Forecast
• Develop an unconstrained market driven Booking and
Shipment Plan
• Set targets to meet market expectations
• lead time, product offering, pricing, service etc.
• Set targets for operational buffers
• Backlog and Finished Goods Inventory
• Input and Output of S&OP process
• Constrain or increase the Demand Plan based on S&OP feedback (supply plan) – shape demand
5 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
What are the Keys to Demand Planning Success?
1. Separating Demand by Demand type
2. Ensuring Accountability for Demand Plan
3. Use Statistical Forecasts where appropriate
4. Collaborate to develop the Demand Plan
5. Real time visibility across business
6 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Demand Streams
7 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Demand Streams
• Break the Demand Plan into streams
based on:
• Demand characteristics
• Accountability
Purpose To better understand your demand
Result Improve the accuracy of your future plans
8 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Demand Streams
• Typical breakdowns:
• Region (Geography)
• Normal vs. Abnormal Demand (Flow vs. Project)
• Distribution Centre vs. Direct
• Large Customer(s) versus Small Customers
9 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Demand Streams
• Demand characteristics may be different by stream
• Seasonality and/or Order Cycles
• Normal vs. Abnormal Demand
• Intelligent Demand
• Major Customer
• Product mix may be different by demand stream
• Specific items for specific customers
• Demand Planning tools should support:
• Bringing demand streams in from different sources: CRM, Customer Collaboration, MRO demand
• Support accuracy measurement by stream
• Support collaboration and consollidation
10 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Insert SPB screenshots here
Link to
ESOP
Opportunity Pipeline via
Sales Pipeline Bridge
on
Opportunity Pipeline for S&OP Planning
11 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
2.42 Acct Mgr RE Laptops Max Stores-M
Opportunity Pipeline via
Sales Pipeline Bridge
on
Opportunity Pipeline Detail
12 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Confirmed S&OP Sales Plan
13 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Consolidating Demand Streams
Sum up the demand stream plans for the Executive Meeting
CRM(Region 1)
CRM(Region 2)
CRM(Region 3)
Flow Demand
Demand Plan(Region 1)MU - Spain
Demand Plan(Region 2)
MU - Turkey
Flow DemandFlow Demand
Demand Plan(Region 3)MU - UK
Consolidated Demand Plan(Center Node)
(ENPE)
5-Section Sheet(Center Node)
(ENPE)
Detail
Level for
Demand
Cycle
Detail
Level for
Executive
Meeting
14 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Demand Streams
• Breaking out demand streams allows better
management of the demand plan
• Statistical forecast where applicable
• Intelligent schedules where applicable
• CRM based project forecasts where applicable
• Breaking out demand streams allows you to assign
accountability
• It won’t improve unless a specific person is responsible and
accountable
• Measure accuracy at this level in the demand cycle of S&OP
15 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Holding Accountability to Demand Plan
16 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
A Common Organizational Challenge!
In Order to improve Demand Planning, I need
to hold someone accountable for the demand
plan!
Why is this so difficult?
17 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Accountability
• Need to measure demand plan on something that is not a shared result:
• Bookings - Output of Sales/Marketing (Demand Side)
• Shipments – Result of demand (orders) and supply (inventory, production)
• Need to measure at a level of responsibility
• Region
• Customer
• Distribution/Direct
• Breaking out demand streams allows you to assign accountability
• It won’t improve unless a specific person is responsible and accountable
• Measure accuracy at this level in the demand cycle of S&OP
18 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Accountability Includes Measurement of Change
• Need ability to see change in plan (month over month)
• Drill down as required to see what caused change:
• product/customer/demand planning role
• Accountability not only includes accuracy but net change
• Tie measurement back to supply capability
What is the impact of
downturn in demand
one month out?
19 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Example Customer: Program Objectives and Deliverables
20 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Example Customer: Quantitative Assessment
Target Savings: $5M - $10M per $1B in revenue
Inventory Reduction
10-20% reduction through more accurate demand plan
Customer Satisfaction
10-30% improvement in customer satisfaction through reduced stock-outs
Demand Plan Accuracy
15-30% improvement through collaboration
Planning Cycle Time
50-70% reduction via integration and process automation
Revenue and Margins
5% lift through reduced stock-outs and better cost management
21 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Use Statistical Forecast to Improve Demand
22 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Normal Vs. Abnormal Demand
• Normal Demand – past performance (mix and volume) is a good
indicator of Future Forecast - FLOW
• Statistical forecast based on history
• Modified by future plans – promotion, price change, new markets
• Abnormal Demand – a single transaction drives a significant
portion of business - PROJECT
• Past sales are not an indication of future sales – lumpy demand
– Forecast on a case by case basis
– Use an Opportunity Management Process - CRM
• Historical mix ratios will not apply
• May include more than one product family
“Manage” the Projects - “Forecast” the Flow.
23 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Normal Vs. Abnormal Demand
• Types:
• Flow vs. Project
• MRO vs. Project
• Flow vs. New Distribution Center
• Domestic vs. Large Export
• Regular vs. Lumpy
• Trying to statistically forecast the right hand side is
extremely difficult and may give misleading results
• Break the demand planning into the different inputs and run
forecast against items on the left
Keep in Mind: You will most likely have different
fulfillment strategies based on the type of demand.
24 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Identifying Abnormal Demand
• Determine the “size” of
opportunity that is abnormal
• Evaluate historical bookings to
determine order size relative to
volume
• Find the balance between:
– Number of opportunities
– Large opportunities that upset
the normal supply flow
If in doubt, pick a lower
number of opportunities
to manage.
25 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Statistical Forecast Analysis
• Understand the quality of the demand data, i.e. active periods, sparse, etc.
• Generate multiple hierarchy level forecasts and analyze results
• Understand the forecast error by levels, i.e. MAPE and Weighted MAPE
• Assess the forecast growth and inflation
• Recommend the optimal forecast level
26 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Product Segmentation Analysis – Demand Policy Take the efficient approach - Understand complexity and its impacts
Volatility
Imp
act
Statistical
Forecast
Collab &
Exception
Stocking Strategy: Min/Max, Safety
Stock, etc
27 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Demand Policy
28 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Collaboration
29 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Why Collaboration?
Demand Planning is an Integral Part of S&OP.
S&OP is a collaborative process to arrive at a balanced demand and
supply plan.
Using collaboration to arrive at Demand Planning provides a better
signal to the S&OP/IBP process
S&OP
Strategic Plan
Master Schedule
Demand Plan
Production and Material Plan
Three to five year strategic plan for the family. Typically updated annually
12 month or more, rolling plan from the family. Updated monthly
12 month or more, rolling demand plan for the family. Updated monthly
Detailed schedule for specific items in the family. Authorized by the S&OP production plan. Typically updated daily or weekly.
Detailed production and material plans linked directly to the master schedule.
S&OP
30 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Why Collaboration is important?
• Demand Planning is about predicting future results.
• Because we are dealing with the future, by definition we will be wrong!
• You want to use the best information possible to develop the demand
plan – pull in from multiple sources.
• Examples of Collaboration
• Customer Collaboration
• Partner Collaboration
• Internal Collaboration
– Multi-level demand plan
– Vertical integration
31 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Collaborative Business Planning Process GoPro S&OP Sales Demand Planning
Sales ManagerForecast
DemandForecast
Inputs
Account
Forecast
Sales Orders
Master Data
Customer Data
Sales Territory
Forecast
Demand
Review
Consensus
Forecast
Planning Processes
Transaction
Files
Marketing
Demand
Planning
Account
Manager
Sales
Management
Sales/Ops
Consensus Exec
S&OP
Inputs & Outputs
ConsensusForecast
Historical Demand Analysis
Performance
Current Plan
Finance
Waterfall
KPI Dashboard
Collaboration
S&OP Sales
S&OP Ops
Executive S&OP
Collaboration
MarketingForecast
New Product Forecasting
SOFEForecast
Locked
Consensus
Forecast
LockedConsensus
Forecast
32 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Screen Shots – Account Manager
33 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Screen Shots – Sales Manager
34 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Screen Shots – Sales Ops
35 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Screen Shots – S&OP
36 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Real Time Visibility Across Business
37 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Real Time Visibility Across the Business
• Demand Planning is one key input to S&OP Process.
• Needs to support an S&OP process that is:
• Run on a regular monthly cadence
• Establishing clear accountability for all plans (demand and supply)
• Looking at business by product family – across demand and supply
• Link demand plans and supply constraints
• A learning process – monthly feedback and continuous improvement
• Include Key Business Levers
– Bookings, Backlog, Shipments, Inventory, Supply (Production)
• Supported by common definitions across the business
38 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Best Practice Enabled by Technology
• Single version of the Truth – from across multiple systems
• CRM, Orders, Forecast, Collaborative Demand view
• Integration to Finance (Monthly Financial Plan)
• Visibility of Budget in process
• Measurement of gap to Budget
• Use S&OP process to inform budget
• Ability to convert between units and dollars – will tell two different stories
• Earn and report in dollars – make and sell in units
• Ability to analyze data to determine RCA on out of tolerance plans and
recognize bias
• Capability to drill down below family to lower level drivers/issues
• Linked to system of record – aligned to execution plan
39 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Holistic View – Supported by Collaborative Process
• Need to view Demand Planning as an input to the overall demand and supply balancing process
• Tools need to support integration and timely data access
• Eliminate the time required to consolidate and manage data – Utilize this time for analysis
40 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Outcomes
Results/Benefits
First time in Company B’s history they are able to view demand in a single source system with a common understanding on how the numbers are generated
Challenges and Lessons Learned
Sophistication of their NetSuite ERP solution
SW2 project is uncovering gaps in their original ERP implementation
Next Phase
Multi-Phased roll out of S&OP Ops, Executive S&OP and Insight
Planned in the form of “Release Drops” versus a structured series of individual SOWs
41 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Recap: Keys to Demand Planning Success.
1. Separating Demand by Demand type
2. Ensuring Accountability for Demand Plan
3. Use Statistical Forecasts where appropriate:
4. Collaborate to develop the Demand Plan
5. Real time visibility across business
42 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.
Q&A
43 © 2014 Steelwedge Software, Inc. Confidential.