The 2018 Oilfield - Sequeira Partners
24
The 2018 Oilfield Richard Spears Spears & Associates Tulsa
Transcript of The 2018 Oilfield - Sequeira Partners
The 2018 OilfieldRichard Spears
Spears & Associates
Tulsa
Last Year’s Conclusions
• LONG…laterals accelerate demand
• LAND…2017 will be good
• OFFSHORE…2017 will be bad
• SAND…demand will rise to record levels
‘18 Oil Price Assumption
$50 WTI
‘18 Oil Price Assumption
‘18 Oil Price Assumption
‘18 Oil Price Trend
$60 WTI
Global Oilfield
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Mill
ion
s
Oilfield Market Report, Spears & Associates
Schlumberger
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
Q1
18
Q2
18
Q3
18
Q4
18
Millions USD
Rising slowly because
international is a drag on
revenues
ForecastProduct Line Forecast, Spears & Associates
Halliburton
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
Q1
18
Q2
18
Q3
18
Q4
18
Millions USD
Rising fast because HAL
is North America
ForecastProduct Line Forecast, Spears & Associates
Precision Drilling
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
Q1
18
Q2
18
Q3
18
Q4
18
Millions USD
Rapid recovery in 2017…but
$50 oil limits growth
ForecastProduct Line Forecast, Spears & Associates
Land Drilling
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
Q1
18
Q2
18
Q3
18
Q4
18
Millions USD
ForecastPublic companies only Product Line Forecast, Spears & Associates
Directional Drilling
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
Q1
18
Q2
18
Q3
18
Q4
18
Millions USD
ForecastPublic companies only Product Line Forecast, Spears & Associates
Directional Drilling
Land Offshore Total
US $2.6 $0.2 $2.8
Canada $0.4 $0.1 $0.5
Intl $1.3 $3.0 $4.3
Total $4.3 $3.3 $7.6
Directional Drilling Report, Spears & Associates
Hydraulic Fracturing
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
Q1
18
Q2
18
Q3
18
Q4
18
Millions USD
ForecastPublic companies only Product Line Forecast, Spears & Associates
Offshore Drillers
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q4
13
Q1
14
Q2
14
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
Q1
18
Q2
18
Q3
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Q4
18
Millions USD
ForecastPublic companies only Product Line Forecast, Spears & Associates
US Laterals
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
<6000' 6000-8000 Extended Reach
DrillingInfo
US Laterals
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3
14
Q4
14
Q1
15
Q2
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q1
16
Q2
16
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
<6000' 6000-8000 Extended Reach
2018 Market Growth
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Lift
Trees
RigEqpt
SolidsCntr
MudLog
Testing
Packers
Mud
Directional
Tblr Svs
Bits
Chemicals
DH Tools
Land Drlg
CTS
Wireline
WellSvs
Cement
Rental
Frac
FracTrks
Oilfield Market Report, Spears & Associates
Canada Drilling
Drilling & Production Outlook, Spears & Associates
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Footage (Millions)
Canada Drilling
Drilling & Production Outlook, Spears & Associates
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Footage (Millions) & Spending (D&C)
$25B
$12B
$8B
$13B$15B
Canada Drilling
Drilling & Production Outlook, Spears & Associates
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Footage (Millions) & Spending (D&C)
$25B
$12B
$8B
$13B$17B
$60
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The 2018 OilfieldRichard Spears
Spears & Associates
Tulsa
