The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook
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The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center [email protected] http:// www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
description
The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook. Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center [email protected] http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Outline. Seasonal tools 2008-09 U. S. Winter (DJF) Outlook. Pacific SSTs. December - February OCN. 1998-2007. Temperature. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook
The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook
Michael HalpertDeputy Director
Climate Prediction Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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Outline
• Seasonal tools• 2008-09 U. S. Winter (DJF)
Outlook
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Pacific SSTs
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December - February OCN1998-2007Temperature
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December - February OCN1998-2007Precipitation
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IRI – MME DJF Forecasts
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Consolidation Forecast
Objective skill-weighted combination of statistical tools, CFS, trend
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Winter 2008-09 Outlook Rationale
• ENSO-neutral conditions are currently observed in the Pacific.
• This is expected to persist through the winter.
• NAO (AO) has been and continues to be erratic. Large swings possible in any year
• Variability due to intraseasonal oscillations possible (likely)
• Trends favor above-normal temperatures over much of nation and drier-than-average conditions in the Southeast.
December 2008 – February 2009 Temperature Outlook
December 2008 – February 2009 Precipitation Outlook
