The 2003 Bam Urban Earthquake: A Predictable ...manuelberberian.com/Berberian, 2005- Bam Urban...

The 2003 Bam Urban Earthquake: APredictable Seismotectonic Pattern Alongthe Western Margin of the Rigid LutBlock, Southeast Iran

Manuel Berberiana…

“…King Ardeshir Babakan Sassanid �r. AD 224-241�, by conqueringKerman and Bam, killed the ‘Kerm-e-Haftvad’ �the Haftvad Silk Worm� at theBam Citadel. The gigantic worm burst with a big bang noise, which rockedthe area, completely destroyed the Bam Citadel, and killed most of theinhabitants of the Citadel. King Ardeshir put an end to the rule of governorHaftvad, built the new village of Kolalan/Kojaran �Kurzan; the old Deh Shotorquarter in west Bam�, and brought the ‘seven sacred fires of Bahram’ to thenew village…”�Book of Deeds of Ardashir Pabagan 1878 �English Tr., original version ca. AD272�; Tabari 915; Ferdowsi Tusi 1010; & Mostaufi Qazvini 1340. The entireepisode rests on the rationalization of historical events of unknown nature, andperhaps the legendary element could be a possible, mixed metaphoricreference to a ‘destructive earthquake’ or even a ‘conquering battle’ against theancient city of Bam and its Parthian governor, Haftvad!�

The impact of the Bam urban earthquake of 26 December 2003 �Mw 6.6� wasfar more devastating than that which would be expected from a moderate-magnitude earthquake. The event followed a predictable geological/seismological pattern of a specially clustered sequence of medium- to large-magnitude earthquakes on tectonically related active faults in a region withhistoric slip deficits along the western margin of the rigid Lut block. Theearthquake was accompanied by the coseismic rupture of sub-parallel strike-slip faults in a zone revealing a pattern of temporal clustering of seismicity,loading of adjacent faults, and a southwards progressing trend of earthquakesfrom the Kuh Banan to the Gowk and the Bam fault systems. As with theAgadir, Morocco, earthquake of 1960, and the great Tangshan, China,earthquake of 1976, the Bam urban earthquake painfully demonstrated thegrowing vulnerability of a city built on or adjacent to a seismic fault,unprepared to be tested by the severe ground motion triggered by a mediummagnitude earthquake. The absence of historical seismic records regarding theoccurrence of earthquakes in the region or the lengthy time spans betweensuch disasters has been erroneously interpreted as a lack of any potential threatfor the last 2,500 years in the city of Bam. �DOI: 10.1193/1.2127909�

a� Najarian Associates, Suite D, One Industrial Way West, Eatontown, NJ 07724-2255; e-mail:
[email protected]
S35Earthquake Spectra, Volume 21, No. S1, pages S35–S99, December 2005; © 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

S36 M. BERBERIAN

INTRODUCTION

The 26 December 2003 �Mw 6.6� Bam urban earthquake, which occurred at 01:56GMT �05:26 local time�, resulted in an unfathomable death toll and localized structuraldevastation in the sparsely populated and remote desert city of Bam, the newly built“Fighters Town” �Shahrak-e-Razmandegan� east of Bam, the partially ruined nineteenth-century citadel �Arg/Kohandezh� of Bam, the town of Baravat, and nearby villages in theKerman province �ancient Carmania� of southeast Iran �Figure 1�. It was one of the most

Figure 1. Active faults of Iran and vicinity, modified after Berberian �1976, 1981, 1983a, b,1995a, b, 1997; Berberian and Yeats, 1999, 2001�. Reverse faults are shown with teeth onhanging-wall side. Strike-slip faults shown with arrows. Faults without teeth or arrows: sense oflatest slip uncertain. Inset: Map of Iran showing boundary with Arabian plate �line with teeth�.Az: Azarbaijan; KP: Kopeh Dagh; MA: Makran Accretionary Prism; S: Sistan suture zone. Lo-cations of Figures 3, 5, 8, 9, and 11 are shown by relative dashed line boxes.

THE 2003 BAM, IRAN, EARTHQUAKE: A PREDICTABLE SEISMOTECTONIC PATTERN S37

disastrous earthquakes in the recorded history of Iran. Previous urban earthquakes inIran include the 1930 Salmas �Mw 7.1�, the 1978 Tabas-e-Golshan �Mw 7.4�, and the1990 Rudbar-Tarom �Mw 7.3�.

Devastating urban earthquakes have also struck cities such as Quetta, Pakistan�1930, with at least 35,000 dead and an economic loss of US$25 million�; Ashkabad,Turkmenistan �1948, with 176,000 dead�; Agadir, Morocco �1960, with an economicloss of US$120 million and 12,000 dead�; Tangshan, China �1976, with an economicloss of US$5.6 billion and 655,237 dead�; Loma Prieta, California �1989, at the southedge of the San Francisco Bay region, with an economic loss of US$10 billion and 62dead�; Northridge, California �1994; at the north edge of the Los Angeles metropolitanarea, with US$44 billion in damage and 58 dead�; Kobe, Japan �1995, with �US$100billion in total property losses and 5,470 dead�; and Kocaeli, Turkey �1999, near the cityof Izmit along the North Anatolian fault, with an economic loss of US$12 billion and17,127 dead�. Each of these large-magnitude urban earthquakes demonstrated their abil-ity to impact all elements of the urban environment, thus rendering them devastating toboth human life and infrastructures. These events also affected how we mitigate the riskof earthquakes.

The moderate-magnitude Athens, Greece, urban earthquake of 1999 September 7�Mw 5.9� killed 143 people and caused severe damage to both residential and industrialbuildings in the northern suburbs of the capital city of Athens, with an economic loss ofUS$4.2 billion and a normalized maximum peak ground acceleration in the near field��5 km� of about 0.60 g �MCEER 1999�. Although all these moderate-to-large magni-tude earthquakes occurred in a diverse range of geological environments, each of themdelivered the same message regarding the vulnerability of millions of people living onactive faults and the vital need for assessing the earthquake hazard in—at the veryleast—similar geological environments. While the medium-magnitude Bam urban earth-quake of 2003 was not an exceptional event in size, it was a poignant example of how acommon moderate geological event interfaces with an unprepared society to make a hu-manitarian disaster.

During the medium-magnitude Bam urban earthquake, anywhere between 31,000 to43,0001 lives were lost out of a population of about 142,000 in Bam and surroundingareas. Between 30,000 and 50,000 people suffered injuries in the Bam region, requiringhospitalization, yet all the functioning hospitals in the area were severely damaged ordemolished, as was the case during the 1990 Rudbar-Tarom earthquake in the city ofRudbar. The surviving inhabitants were rendered homeless. The head of the Kermanprovince education department announced that more than 11,000 students �1/3 of thestudents of Bam�, 1,200 teachers �1/2 of the teachers at Bam, subsequently changed to

1 Definitive data are not available. Officially, the initial death-toll estimate was 45,000 to 43,200; it was laterlowered to 40,000, then 30,000, 26,500, and finally apparently fixed at 31,500. On March 29, 2004, the head ofthe Statistical Center of Iran �SCI�, announced that: “Some victims were counted more than once in the chaoticaftermath of the disaster; the earthquake killed 26,271 people and that 525 people were still missing” �IranianNewspapers, March 29, 2004, Tehran; irna.ir; SCI, 2004; news.bbc.co.uk�. However, a few months after theevent, local inhabitants estimated a possibly exaggerated death toll as high as 79,000. More than 100,000 resi-
dents were trapped under collapsed buildings.

S38 M. BERBERIAN

560 teachers, 1/5 of the teachers�, and 200 health professionals perished in Bam alone.More than 6,000 children became orphans, and approximately 500 people were perma-nently disabled �Iranian Newspapers 2003, 2004; NCC 2003, 2004; irna.ir;news.bbc.co.uk 2003. 2004; AlertNet; calearth.org; IFRC 2004a, b, and c; megacities;Radix; RCS; reliefweb.int; Tierney et al. 2004; UN; UN/ISDR; World Bank 2004; andothers�.

This paper provides an analysis of the active tectonic setting of the Bam urban earth-quake, including a review of the regional earthquake history and seismic pattern of themajor tectonically-related fault system �Nayband, Kuh Banan, Gowk, Bam, and Sabze-varan faults� bordering the rigid Lut block on the west in the Kerman-Bam plateau insoutheast Iran �Figure 1�. The objective here is to document �1� evidence that prior to theBam earthquake the region was seismically active, and �2� the regional seismicity pat-tern. The establishment of a long-term seismicity pattern would facilitate a better under-standing of the faulting process and the characteristics of segmented faults, which arelikely to rupture in an earthquake. It is an important step in assessing the probability,magnitude, and location of future earthquakes in similar geological environmentsthroughout the world.

In this study reliable macroseismic field data have been used. General epicentral ar-eas of the highest intensities �for large areas such as Figures 3 and 5� are shown with anelliptic shape encompassing the damage/destruction zone and the coseismic rupture, ex-cessively enlarged in the direction of the fault break. This general approach might beconsistent with the energy radiation pattern from an ideal, linear, homogeneous seismicsource of infinite rupture velocity, but not with an inhomogeneous moving rupturesource with directivity and barrier effects. In order to reduce subjectivity, the ellipticaldamage/destruction zones of earthquakes only cover damage caused by dynamic or in-ertia earthquake loading. Therefore, damage caused by effects, such as foundationspreading, liquefaction of the ground, slope instabilities �landslides, rockfalls�, and af-tershocks are not covered.

ACTIVE TECTONIC SETTING

The Iranian Plateau, characterized by active faulting, active folding, recent volcanicactivities, mountainous terrain, and variable crustal thickness, has been frequently struckby catastrophic earthquakes resulting in the massive loss of life. By rendering largemasses homeless and disrupting their agricultural and industrial lifelines, these disastersthat have been historically documented �Figures 1 and 2� have resulted in repetitive dam-age throughout the long history of Iranian civilization �Berberian 1995a, 1996�.

During the twentieth century, the Iranian people have experienced at least one�7.0-magnitude earthquake every seven years, and one 6.0-6.9-magnitude earthquakeevery two years, culminating in a very large death toll averaging 1,577 persons/year�Table 1 and Figure 2�. Since 1900, more than 164,000 people have been killed by earth-quakes in Iran. During this period, no large-magnitude earthquake has impacted the met-ropolitan area of Tehran or large provincial capital cities �Figure 1�. Similar casualtiesand destruction have been recently documented in other developing countries, including


Figure 2. Cumulative diagram of large earthquake casualty and population explosion in Iransince 1900, with the available minimum uninsured economic losses in original values since the1962.09.01 �Mw 7.0� earthquake �Table 1�. The italic number on cumulative death toll diagramdenotes earthquake moment magnitude. Population data taken from the SCI �2004�. Earthquakedeath toll taken from Berberian �1979b, 1996, and the comprehensive catalogue of the Iranianearthquakes and seismic faults, in preparation�. Important Iranian �ISIRI, 519 and 2800� andInternational hazard minimization milestones are added to the diagram with arrows. ISIRI-519:the 1969 Iranian Building Safety Code During Earthquakes. ISIRI-2800: the 1988 Iranian Codefor Seismic Resistant Design of Building. GADR: Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction�2001 onward�. GSHAP: the UN/IDNDR/ICSUC Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program�1992-1996�. IDNDR: the United Nations International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction�1900-2000�. IIEES: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology �Iran;1989 onward�. ISDR: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction �1999�. WCDR: WorldConference on Disaster Reduction �January 18-22, 2005�. Yokohama: Yokohama Strategy andPlan of Action for a Safer World, Guidelines for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness, andMitigation and its Plan of Action, UN �1994�. Between 1993 and 2001, about 600,000 dwell-ings �5% of Iran’s total housing stock� were severely damaged or destroyed, causing US$10billion in damage. From 1999 to 2001, government subsidies to homeowners affected by disas-ters exceeded US$ 1 billion �1.3% of GPD�.

Table 1. Direct losses during selected earthquakes in Iran �1900-2005� �see also Figures 1 and 2�

DA

nsoyed/ed �d�

VillagesDestroyed

No. ofHouses

Destroyed

DirectEconomic

Loss�U.S.$ m,originalvalues�

19 5 ++1919 sh1919 25

19 Darram19 �219 �119 130

19 �319 �919 �219 �2 �15019 + ++19 + ++

19 �7

19 3219 �1219 ++19

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N

TE REGION Ms Mw

Io�MMI�

PGA�H/V�

PeopleKilled/Injured

CitiesDestroyed/

Damaged �d�

TowDestr

Damag

00.02.24 Khoy 5.4 VII - ++ Khoy „d…02.07.09 Qeshm 6.3 VIII - 10 - Qeshm03.03.22 Dorakhsh ? 6.2 VIII - - Dorakh03.06.24 Anzali ? 6.0 VII+ - -03.09.25 Turshiz

�Kashmar�5.9 VIII - �350 Turshiz

05.01.09 N. Qezel Owzan 6.0 VII+ - -05.04.25 Issin-Genu 5.8 VII+ - -05.06.19 Nosratabad 6.0 VII+ - -09.01.23 Silakhor 7.4 7.4 IX+ - 8,000 Dorud

†Bahrein‡09.10.27 Jowshan 5.5 VII - -11.04.18 Ravar 6.4 VIII - 700 Ravar11.04.29 Feyzabad 5.6 VII - ++ -11.09.13 Bastak-Lar 5.5 VII - 10 Bastak17.11.28 Kalian 5.9 VII+ - -18.03.24 Torbat Sheikh

Jam6.0 VII+ - -

23.05.25 KajDerakht

5.5 VII - 2,200 -

23.09.17 N. Bojnurd 6.4 VIII - 157 -23.09.22 Lalehzar 6.7 VIII+ - 290 -23.11.29 SE. Qa’en 5.6 VII - -27.07.22 Dasht-e-Kavir 6.3 - - -

Table 1. �cont.�

DA

nsoyed/ed �d�

VillagesDestroyed

No. ofHouses

Destroyed

DirectEconomic


19 �21919 30019 1019 �419 419 �60

1919 �619 + ++19 �1019 �519 ?19 819 10619 �51919 �219 + ++19 9

19 + +

TH

E2003

BA

M,IR

AN

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:AP

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MO

TE

CT

ON

ICP

AT

TE

RN

S41

TE REGION Ms Mw

Io�MMI�

PGA�H/V�


CitiesDestroyed/

Damaged �d�

TowDestr

Damag

28.03.08 Nehbandan 5.5 VII - 4 -28.08.21 Neyshabur 5.2 VI+ - �30 -29.05.01 Baghan 7.3 7.1 IX+ - �3,800/1,121 Shirvan „d…29.07.13 Baghan 6.0 VII+ 2129.07.15 Andika 6.0 VII+ - ++ -30.05.06 Salmas 5.4 VII - 25 -30.05.06 Salmas 7.2 7.1 IX - 2,514 Dilman,

KohnehShahr

30.08.23 S.W. Zagros 6.1 VIII - -30.10.02 Ah 5.2 VII+ - Few -33.10.05 Sebeh 6.1 VIII - -33.11.28 N. Behabad 6.2 6.2 VIII - -34.01.02 Sekonj 5.6 VII - Mahan „d…34.02.04 Yasuj 6.3 - -35.03.05 S. Darab 5.8 VII+ - 60 -35.04.11 Kusut 6.2 VIII - 400 -36.06.30 Abiz 6.0 VII+ - �12 -38.02.14 Caspian 6.1 VIII39.06.10 Baharestan 5.5 VII - -40.05.04 Zelzelhekhiz 6.4 VIII - -41.02.16 Mohammad-

abad6.2 6.1 VIII - �680 -

44.04.05 Gorgan 5.2 VI+ - 20 Gorgan „d…


DA

nsoyed/ed �d�

VillagesDestroyed

No. ofHouses

Destroyed

DirectEconomic


19 + ++atNegar

19 300

19 �2191919 �61919 �619 +19 �30 in

Iran

19 12 80

19 �2019 +19 �8 180019 �14 2.819 21019 12019 211

S42

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CitiesDestroyed/

Damaged �d�

TowDestr

Damag

44.07.23 Negar 5.5 VII - Few Negar

45.11.27 Makran 8.0 7.9 X - Pasni,Ormara, +Tsunami

46.02.10 Giv 5.2 VI+ 346.03.12 Kazerun 5.7 VII - Kazerun „d…47.08.05 Makran 7.0 6.9 IX - Pasni47.09.23 Dustabad 6.8 VIII+ - 500 -48.01.30 Makran 6.548.06.17 Altinkosh 5.5 VII - 2 -48.07.05 Gowk 6.0 VII+ - -48.10.05 Ashkabad 7.2 7.2 IX - 176,000 in

USSR; 352 inIran

Ashkabad

49.04.24 Nakhl-e-Nakhoda

6.3 VIII - - -

50.01.19 Dehno 5.5 VII - 30 -53.01.15 Rayhan 5.5 VII - �13 -53.02.12 Torud 6.5 6.5 VIII+ - �930 Torud56.10.31 Gowdeh 6.2 VIII - 410 -57.04.23 Kachu Mesqal VII - 16 -57.07.02 Sangchal 6.8 7.1 VIII+ - �1,500 -57.12.13 Farsinaj 6.7 VIII+ 1,200/900 -


DA

nsoyed/ed �d�

VillagesDestroyed

No. ofHouses

Destroyed

DirectEconomic


19 170 2,50019 71919 10 50019 �519 91 3019 319 22 5000191919 +19 10 119 157 9356 �50

19 210019 �419 6 300* N OF BUILDINGS „ISIRI CODE # 519�*

19 �319 40 2000 819 �219 �3 �10019

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S43

TE REGION Ms Mw

Io�MMI�

PGA�H/V�


CitiesDestroyed/

Damaged �d�

TowDestr

Damag

58.08.16 Firuzabad 6.6 6.6 VIII+ - �132/948 -58.09.21 Firuzabad 5.2 VI+ - 16 -60.04.24 Lar 5.8 VII+ - 420 Lar61.06.11 Dehkuyeh 6.5 VIII+ - 60 -62.04.01 Musaviyeh 5.5 VII - 20 -62.09.01 Bo’in Zahra 7.2 7.0 IX - 12,200/3,000 -62.10.05 Ahmadabad 5.0 VI+ - 6 -63.03.24 Karkhaneh 5.8 VII+ - - -63.03.31 Dahaneh Ojaq 5.0 VI+ - 4 -64.12.22 Faduyeh 6.1 - ? -67.01.29 Lengeh 5.5 VII -68.04.29 Gol 5.5 VII - 61/100 -68.08.31 Dasht-e-

Bayaz7.2 7.1 IX - 10,000/4,050 -

68.09.01 Ferdows 6.4 6.2 VIII - 1,000/300 Ferdows68.09.14 Tang-e-Rul’in 6.0 VII+ - - -69.01.03 Dahaneh Ojaq 5.5 5.4 VII - 5 -1969: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FIRST IRANIAN CODE FOR SEISMIC RESISTANT DESIG70.03.14 Badalan 5.2 VI+ - 4 -70.07.30 Karnaveh 6.5 6.3 VIII+ - 200 -71.02.14 Seh Rokhi 5.5 5.6 VII - 1 -71.04.12 Tazarj 5.8 VII+ - 1 -71.05.26 Rivash 5.6 5.6 VII - ? -


DA

nsoyed/ed �d�

VillagesDestroyed

No. ofHouses

Destroyed

DirectEconomic


1919 �d�19 +19 50 819 3 ++19 �21919 �1019 45 1000 in

Iran19 �20 1500191919 �10 210019 19 551919 90 15,000 11

19 20 541 1.219 1219 + ++19 28 99019 �3 170019 7 216

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CitiesDestroyed/

Damaged �d�

TowDestr

Damag

71.08.09 Babol Kenar 5.3 VII - 1 -71.11.08 Bastak 6.0 VII+ - - - Bastak71.12.09 Sarkhun 5.7 5.2 VII - - -72.04.10 Qir-Karzin 6.9 6.7 IX 0.40 5,010/1,332 -73.11.11 Qeshlaq 5.5 VII - 1 -75.03.07 Sarkhun 6.1 VIII 0.39 7 -76.04.22 Bushehr 5.7 5.676.11.07 Vandik 6.3 6.0 VIII 0.17 16 -76.11.24 Chalderan 7.2 7.0 IX 6 in Iran

77.03.21 Khurgu 6.8 6.7 VIII+ 0.41 152 -77.03.21 Khurgu 6.0 6.177.04.01 Khurgu 6.0 6.0 VII+77.04.06 Naghan 6.1 5.8 VIII 0.52 366 -77.05.26 Mokhur 5.4 VII 3 -77.12.19 Dar Tangal 5.7 5.8 VII 665/500 -78.09.16 Tabas-e-

Golshan7.4 7.4 IX+ 0.91 20,000 Tabas-e-

Golshan78.11.04 Siahbil 6.0 6.1 VII+ 0.28 26 -78.12.14 Andika 6.2 6.2 VIII - 60/52 -79.01.10 Parud 6.0 5.8 VII+ - -79.01.10 Parud 6.2 5.9 VIII -79.01.16 Boznabad 6.7 6.5 VIII+ 129/200 -79.11.14 Korizan 6.7 6.6 VIII+ 171 -


DA

nsoyed/ed �d�

VillagesDestroyed

No. ofHouses

Destroyed

DirectEconomic


19 �1019 �31919 111919 519 �719 25 1,000

19 719 7 75 519 �419 ++ 150019 819 8 30019 8019 30019

MIC RESISTANT DESIGN OF

19 70019 45 2,00019 21

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CitiesDestroyed/

Damaged �d�

TowDestr

Damag

79.11.27 Koli 7.2 7.1 IX 20/23 -79.12.07 Kalat-e-Shur 6.1 5.9 VIII80.05.04 Shirabad 6.3 6.380.12.19 Salafchegan 5.8 6.0 VII+ - 16 -80.12.22 Salafchegan 5.2 5.5 VI+ - 3/10081.06.11 Golbaf 6.6 6.6 VIII+ 1,400/3,000 -81.07.23 Oshnaviyeh 5.6 5.8 VII 10 -81.07.28 Sirch 7.0 7.0 IX 0.35

@Golbaf

1,300/1,000 -

83.03.25 Baijan 4.9 VI - 100/61 -83.07.22 Charazeh 5.0 5.5 VI+ 4/41 -84.08.06 Hur 5.3 5.3 VII - - -85.02.02 SE Qir 5.3 5.5 VII - 2/80 -85.10.29 Nomal 6.0 6.1 VII+ - 1 -86.07.12 Golgun 5.6 5.4 VII - 2/4 -86.12.20 Golgun 5.0 5.3 VI+87.01.11 Golgun 4.187.05.29 Kahriz 4.6 V - 2/50 -

*1988 FEBRUARY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SECOND IRANIAN CODE FOR SEISBUILDINGS „ISIRI CODE # 2800�*

88.03.30 Tashan 5.7 5.9 VII88.08.11 Doshman Ziari 6.1 5.8 VIII - 6 -88.12.06 DoshmanZiari 5.7 5.6 VII


DA

nsoyed/ed �d�

VillagesDestroyed

No. ofHouses

Destroyed

DirectEconomic


19 719 919 100019

NEERING & SEISMOLOGY „IIEES…,

1919 700 100,000 7,200

19 + +

19 + +

19 18 1445 24019 519 15 200019 + +

19 819 16019 5 200

S46

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CitiesDestroyed/

Damaged �d�

TowDestr

Damag

89.05.03 Doshman Ziari 6.2 VIII89.05.27 Dogonbadan 5.8 6.0 VII+ -89.10.01 Sisakht 4.7 VI89.11.20 S. Golbaf 5.5 5.8 VII - 4 -

*1989: ESTABLISHMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EARTHQUAKE ENGITEHRAN*

90.01.20 Firuzkuh 5.8 6.0 VII+90.06.20 Rudbar-

Tarom7.4 7.3 IX+ 0.65,

�11kmfromthefault

�40,000/105,000

Rudbar,Manjil,Lowshan.Rasht „d…

90.06.21 Rudbar-Tarom

5.3 5.6 VII 21

90.06.24 Rudbar-Tarom

4.7 5.5 VI

90.11.06 Furg 6.7 6.5 VIII+ 22/90 -90.12.16 Kalameh 5.4 VII - 2 -91.11.04 Tashan 5.4 VII91.11.28 Rudbar-

Tarom5.0 5.5 VI+ 1

92.01.16 Shurak 4.8 VI92.03.04 Dareh Yas 4.6 VI - 6/5092.09.08 Darenjan 4.7 VI - 1 -


DA

nsoyed/ed �d�

VillagesDestroyed

No. ofHouses

Destroyed

DirectEconomic


19 1619 11 20019 7019 6 300 1.419191919 1519 1219 183 14,356 10019 ++ ++19 112 13,500 13219 259 17630 150

19 �4 �7019 �4 500019 7 2,00019 6001919 �6 10019 85019 219 + 517

TH

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CitiesDestroyed/

Damaged �d�

TowDestr

Damag

93.01.06 Darenjan 5.3 5.4 VII93.01.27 Shirshotor 5.0 VI+93.06.22 Gachsaran 4.8 5.2 VI94.02.23 Sefidabeh 6.0 6.1 VII+ 6 -94.02.24 Sefidabeh 6.1 6.2 VIII94.02.26 Sefidabeh 5.8 6.0 VII+94.02.28 Sefidabeh 5.5 5.5 VII94.03.01 Mook 6.0 6.1 VII+ 2/3194.06.20 Ebrahimabad 5.9 5.8 VII+ 3/10097.02.04 Naveh 6.7 6.4 VIII+ 0.3 90/2,000 -97.02.04 Naveh 6.6 VIII+97.02.28 Ardebil 6.1 6.0 VIII 0.2 954/2,600 -97.05.10 Zirkuh-e-

Qa’enat7.2 7.1 IX 0.7 1568/5,059 -

97.06.20 Chakhu 5.4 5.4 VII97.06.25 Boznabad 5.8 5.7 VII+98.03.14 Fandoqa 6.6 6.6 VIII+ 5/50 -98.04.10 Gazan 5.7 5.7 VII 12/30 -98.07.09 Astara 5.798.10.05 Dareh Shahr 4.9 5.4 VI98.11.13 Khonj 5.1 5.4 VI+ 5/10598.11.18 Chahr Farsakh 5.1 5.4 VI+99.03.04 Ashub 6.5 6.4 VIII+ 1


DA

nsoyed/ed �d�

VillagesDestroyed

No. ofHouses

Destroyed

DirectEconomic


19 9 800

19 + +19 �519 �6 5020 �10 40020 + ++20 1020 15 �1000 9120 200020 3,500 21.620 t 1,500

20 3,880 15.4

20 16 8,000

No+:++

S48

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CitiesDestroyed/

Damaged �d�

TowDestr

Damag

99.05.06 KuhmarehSorkhi

6.3 6.1 VIII 26/100

99.08.10 Momenabad 4.3 V+ 199.11.08 Yekeh Tut 5.2 5.5 VI+99.11.26 Aliabad 4.8 5.3 VI00.02.02 Bardaskan 5.3 5.2 VII 1/1502.02.17 Baghan 5.0 5.4 VI+ 1/3002.04.24 Dastjerd 5.2 5.4 VI+ 2/5602.06.22 Changureh 6.4 6.5 VIII 261/1,30003.01.11 Kazerun 5.0 5.2 VI+03.07.10 Hajjiabad 5.5 5.8 VII 1/2503.12.26 Bam 6.6 6.6 VIII+ 0.8/

0.9826,500-43,200/30,000

Bam Barava

04.05.28 FiruzabadKojur

6.4 6.3 VIII 35/278

05.02.22 Darbidkhun 6.5 6.4 VIII 612/1411 Zarand �d�

tes:Few: Many


Turkey, India, Algeria, China, and Morocco. The oasis city of Bam and its inhabitantswere buried in a matter of seconds, as was the case in the oasis city of Tabas-e-Golshannearly 25 years ago �16 September 1978, Mw 7.4; Berberian 1979a, 1979b, 1982�, andthe three cities of Rudbar, Manjil, and Lowshan 14 years ago �20 June 1990, Mw 7.3;Berberian et al. 1992�.

The active tectonic environment in Iran is related to the convergence of the Eurasianand Arabian plates. Indentation of the Arabian plate into a composite system ofcollision-oblique transpressive fold-thrust mountain belts has resulted in the lateral es-cape of central Iran towards the Lut Block, without a through-going high slip rate strike-slip fault like the San Andreas or the North Anatolian. Older global plate models thatused a combination of Afro-Eurasia and Arabia-Africa motions to estimate the overallArabian-Eurasia convergence show N-S shortening at rates of approximately30 mm/year at longitude 50°N and 40 mm/year at longitude 60° E �Jackson 1992;DeMets et al. 1994; Jestin et al. 1994; Chu and Gordon 1998�. While much of this short-ening has been expressed in earthquakes and mountain belts of the Zagros �in the SW�,the Alborz �N� and the Kopeh Dagh �NE�, some has also been accommodated in centralIran, which includes the Kerman-Bam plateau �Figure 1�, and in the Makran subductionzone of southeast Iran �Berberian et al. 2001; Walker and Jackson 2002, 2004�. Morerecent global models, constrained by GPS, suggest that these earlier estimates were toohigh, with only �26 mm/year of shortening at 60° E �Sella et al. 2002; McClusky et al.2003�. The present day deformation of Iran deduced from a GPS experiment �Vernant etal. 2004�, which is in agreement with McQuarrie et al. �2003� in giving a constant rateof �20 mm/year over the last 10 Ma, shows that approximately 10 mm/year of short-ening was in the Zagros fold-thrust belt of southwestern Iran. The rest was partly in theAlborz and the Kopeh Dagh ��8 mm/year� and east Iran ��16 mm/year�.The GPS experiment suggested only 14 mm/year motions in the Bam region�Nilforoushan et al. 2003�.

Central Iran �Figure 1� is a mosaic of various tectonic blocks once separated byocean basins �Berberian and King 1981� that started to close in the Middle Tertiary.Much of the broader collision zone, however, was not defined until the Middle Miocene-early Pliocene �F. Berberian et al. 1982; Berberian 1983a and b, 1984, 1989; Dewey etal. 1986; McCall 1996�. In particular, major deformation of the Zagros fold belt, SouthCaspian Basin, and central Iran did not appear to begin until the early Pliocene ��5 Mayears ago�, when the final closure of the remaining ocean basins commenced, along withthe onset of intracontinental shortening �Stocklin 1968; Falcon 1974; Berberian 1983aand b, 1984, 1989; Devlin et al. 1999; Jackson et al. 2002�. A recent magnetostratigra-phy study of the Miocene-Pliocene Zagros foreland deposits �the Agha Jari Formation�indicated that the onset of the deformation started in 8.1-7.2 Ma during the Tortonian�Late Miocene�. The angular unconformity at the base of the Bakhtiari Formation indi-cates that the growth of the Zagros frontal folds ended after 2.5 Ma around the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary �Homke et al. 2004�.

In this study, the Bam urban earthquake is discussed in the context of a spatiallyclustered sequence of earthquakes on the several tectonically related active fault systemson the west side of the Lut Desert �Kavir-e-Lut, literally, “bare,” “void of vegetation and

S50 M. BERBERIAN

life”� east of the Kerman-Bam plateau �Figure 1�. The low elevation �+400 m amsl�,lack of recent folding �Stocklin 1968�, thinner crust �Dehghani and Makris 1983�, andapparent lack of seismicity in the Lut Desert suggest that the Lut Desert is a relativelyrigid block within the Iranian distributed deforming zone; hence as its name suggests, itis “void of vegetation and life” as well as void of seismicity and deformation! Some ofthe roughly N-S right-lateral shear between central Iran and Afghanistan �the Hirmandrigid block; a Eurasian promontory� occurs on the long N-S strike-slip faults of Sistan�Kahurak, Nosratabad, Neh, and Abiz fault systems; see Figure 1� near the Iran-Afghanborder �Berberian et al. 1999, 2000; Walker and Jackson 2002, 2004�, but a portion isalso on right-lateral faults striking N-S to NNW-SSE on the western side of the Lutblock, which includes the Nayband, Gowk, Bam, and Sabzevaran fault systems �Figure1�. There are no reliable estimates of slip rates on these strike-slip systems.

HISTORICAL SEISMICITY

Earthquakes in the Iranian plateau show a nonuniform distribution concentratedwithin the active fold-thrust mountain belts surrounding the relatively aseismic, unde-formed rigid and stable blocks. There have been roughly 164,629 deaths attributed toapproximately 100 medium-to-large magnitude earthquakes that have occurred in Iransince 1900. Since the 1 September 1962 �Mw 7.0� Bo’in Zahra earthquake in Iran, therehave been about eight earthquakes of M�7.0, and the minimum economic losses of theIranian earthquakes exceeded US$10.6 billion �Figure 2 and Table 1�. These destructiveearthquakes represent a mix of urban and rural events in different geological environ-ments, with levels of documentation regarding actual loss estimates, socioeconomic, andfinancial impacts varying from one earthquake to another. Unfortunately, such documen-tation is not available for most Iranian earthquakes. The retrievable data are summarizedin Table 1 and Figure 2.

Like many urban areas in developing countries, earthquake risks have increased sig-nificantly in Iranian cities since the 1962 earthquake in the region �Figure 2 and Table 1�.Until possibly the early 1960s, the rate of investment in large urban and industrial de-velopments in Iran was minimal at best. Although earthquakes took a toll of more than24,750 lives during the first 60 years of the twentieth century, damage in economic termshad remained relatively low �Figure 2 and Table 1�. However, with the massive invest-ments of the last four decades in new urban and industrial centers, future earthquakes inIran are likely to result in serious economic loss. There has been a 3.5-fold increase inthe Iranian population since 1956, and a two-fold increase since 1976 �SCI 2004� �Fig-ure 2�. Population growth has concentrated in the megacity of Tehran and in the largeprovincial capital cities throughout the country �Figure 1�.

The long-term seismicity of the Iranian plateau has been reviewed by Ambraseys andMelville �1982�; Berberian �1981, 1995a, 1995b, 1996, 1997�, and Berberian and Yeats�1999, 2001�. The earliest earthquakes reported in the Kerman-Bam plateau were in1854. The lack of earlier records is due to the fact that the region is sparsely populatedand is located in a remote desert environment west of the Lut Desert in southeast Iran�Figure 1�. Although the Bam region shows active geomorphologic features, apparentlyno historic seismic record has survived, since the area is located directly at the western


margin of the Lut Desert, and the local historical records such as Bamnameh �The Bookof Bam�, possibly compiled by Taher al-Din Bami, were presumed to be lost or destroyed�Vaziri Kermani 1876�.

PATTERN OF PREVIOUS EARTHQUAKES IN THE KERMAN-BAM PLATEAU

The Kuh Banan, Jorjafk, Nayband, Gowk, Bam, Sabzevaran, and Rafsanjan strike-slip faults are the main active faults of the Kerman province of southeastern Iran, west ofthe Lut Desert �Figure 1�. Despite the active deformation features along these faults inthe Kerman plateau, there is a lack of seismicity and active deformation in the low-lyingLut Desert. The right-lateral shear along the western margin of the Lut block is directlytransmitted between the Nayband, Lakarkuh, Kuh Banan, Gowk, and Bam fault systems�Figure 1�. As discussed later, seismicity of the Bam area is somehow interconnectedwith the seismic pattern �in the form of temporary clustering, loading of adjacent faults,shear transfer, fault interaction, and seismic propagation� of these faults. Identificationof the general tectonic/seismic pattern could provide timely and effective information,which might lead to an early-warning system, and hence, to disaster risk reduction�which apparently is a western concept!�. Hence, in this section we follow the seismicitypattern and propagation along the Kuh Banan strike-slip and cross-thrust fault system inthe north, to the Gowk and then the Bam fault systems in the south.

SEISMIC PATTERN ALONG THE KUH BANAN STRIKE-SLIP AND CROSS-THRUST FAULT SYSTEM IN THE KUH BANAN FOLD-THRUST

MOUNTAINS „N AND NW OF KERMAN…

The Kuh Banan �literally, Wild Pistachio Mountain, Cobinan in the Travels of MarcoPolo� strike-slip fault �Huckriede et al. 1962; Berberian 1976; Berberian et al. 1979� is amajor active fault striking NW-SE �N140°E� in the vicinity of the provincial capital cityof Kerman �the ancient Veh-Ardeshir/Beh-Ardeshir, later Bardashir, Bardsir, andGovashir by the Arabs; Figures 1 and 3�. The city of Kerman is one of the oldest citiesof Iran. Its oldest fortification ruins, Qal’eh Ardeshir �“Ardeshir’s Fort”� seems to havebeen named after the first Sassanian king, Ardeshir-I �r. A.D. 224-241�, situated on thenortheast outskirt of Kerman, next to another ruin, the Qal’eh Dokhtar �“Maiden’sFort”�, the oldest citadel of the Achaemenid period �550-330 B.C.�, where the ArdaviSura Anahita Temple �the ancient Iranian Mother Goddess of the Waters� was erected�Fehervari and Caldwell 1967; Bastani Parizi 1987; Moradi 1999�.

The Kerman plain is bounded to the northeast and southwest by two subparallel ac-tive right-lateral strike-slip faults, the Kuh Banan and the Jorjafk faults �Figure 3�. Un-like the Kuh Banan fault, which has a limited recorded seismic history since 1875 �seebelow�, no historical record is available for the Jorjafk fault despite its active fault fea-tures �Figure 3�. Gaps in the historic record of earthquakes in the area �Figure 3� mayeither indicate no seismic activity, or simply that there is no record of seismicity. TheKuh Banan strike-slip fault lies on the boundary between the Kuh Banan fold-thrustmountains �underlain by the Lower Cambrian Ravar/Dezu/Hormoz evaporate complexdecollement layer with numerous piercing salt plugs� in the northeast ��+3,000 mamsl� and the Kerman-Zarand plain in the southwest ��+1,500 m�. For much of its

Figure 3. See footnote on facing page.

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length, the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault consists of a series of right-lateral strike-slip seg-ments that step to the right in an en-echelon pattern. Towards the southern tip of the KuhBanan strike-slip fault, where the trace of the fault is gradually disappearing, mountainranges bounded by cross-reverse faults and folds are well developed at almost rightangles due to shortening along the cross-faults.

Based on the preliminary morphotectonic study, the Kuh Banan right-lateral strike-slip fault �L�200 km� can be divided into four segments �the Zarand, the Kuh Banan,the Rizu, and the Behabad segments; Figure 3�. A total right-lateral channel offset ofapproximately 200 meters and a vertical motion of four meters are visible in the areathree kilometers south of Gevar �9 km south of Kuh Banan town; Figure 3�. A minimum5-km right-lateral displacement of the Lower Cambrian Desu Series, Cambrian LalunSandstone, and Upper Jurassic Bidu Formation keybeds is visible in the area NW Ker-man �NNW of Chatrud, in the Tigur-Khunik area: Huckriede et al. 1962; GSI 1999�.

The limited period of seismic data used here is insufficient to place bounds on therecurrence behavior of large-magnitude earthquakes along the Kuh Banan fault. More-over, the data may underestimate the occurrence of maximum credible earthquake�MCE� on the individual fault segments, which will release virtually all of the accumu-lated strain energy.

The area between the southeastern segment of the Kuh Banan �Figure 3� and thenorthwestern segment of the Gowk strike-slip fault systems �Figure 5, see below�, whereboth faults show a step to the left, is composed of several active nearly E-W to WNW-ESE cross-thrust faults �such as Darbidkhun, Heruz, Tigur, Pasu, Bazargan, and manymore in Figure 3� in the area east and northeast of Kerman city. These cross-thrusts wereassociated with at least a cluster of five recorded medium-magnitude earthquakes during1854 �Ms�5.8�, 1864 �Ms�6.0�, 1897 �Ms�5.7�, 6 August 1984 �M�5.3; with anE-W thrust focal mechanism, and centroid depth of 11 km�, and 22 February 2005 �Mw6.4; with thrust focal mechanism� �Figure 3; the 1911 seismic source requires furtherauthentication�. Reverse-fault focal mechanisms of the 1984 and the 2005 earthquakesalong cross-thrust faults contrast with the strike-slip focal mechanisms of earthquakes

Figure 3. Mesoseismal area of medium-magnitude earthquakes �top� and space-time diagram �bottom� ofnearly 151 years of seismicity along the Kuh Banan strike-slip and cross-thrust fault system, in the Kuh Bananfold-thrust Mountains. Faults as in Figure 1. Zones of extensive damage shown by ellipses on the map. Wherethe date of the earthquake is shown, it is given by year.month.day. Thicker lines show faults with documentedsurface ruptures. Solid lines in the bottom space-time diagram indicate an earthquake known to have rupturedthe ground surface; dashed lines indicate highly probable surface-rupturing events. Distances are along strikewith respect to the provincial capital city of Kerman. Modified after Berberian et al. �1979, 1984�. The 1984focal mechanism with centroid depth of 11 km in the Kuh Banan fold-thrust Mountains is taken from Baker�1993�. Preliminary data on the 2005 earthquake is taken from GSI �2005� and press reports. The 2005.02.22mechanism is taken from USGS moment tensor solution Recorded right-lateral displacements along the KuhBanan fault are shown in boxes. Triangles show location of standing ancient structures �filled� and ruined�blank� archaeological sites �Fehervari and Caldwell 1967; Hutt 1970; Meshkati 1970; Berberian et al. 1984�.The figure overlaps with, and is the northwestward continuation of Figure 5. DB: Darbidkhun cross-thrust fault.G: Tapeh Gajin, GO: Goshkin, H: Qal’eh Hosseinabad, K: Qal’eh Khaneh, P: Panbeh Paran, Q: Qal’eh, Z: Zan-

th
giabad. The reversed triangle with “?”: the approximate location of the lost 10 century town of Janzrud.

S54 M. BERBERIAN

on the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault �Figure 3�, indicating the strain partitioning must oc-cur in the Kuh Banan fold-thrust mountains, and faults tend to rupture in either dip-slip�reverse� or strike-slip modes.

The right-lateral shear along the western margin of the Lut block is directly trans-mitted between the Nayband, the Gowk, the Bam, and the Kuh Banan fault systems. Ac-tive shortening along the cross-thrust-fold belt in the Kerman area absorbs the strike-slipdeformation along the Kuh Banan and the Gowk faults �Figures 3 and 5�. As with theGowk fault �discussed below�, the oblique shortening across the Kuh Banan fault sys-tem, required by its general trend of N140°E, appears to be achieved by a spatialseparation �partitioning� of the strike-slip and reverse components onto adjacent faults�Figure 3�.

The recorded pre-instrumental seismic history of the Kuh Banan strike-slip and thecross-thrust fault system of the northern-northwestern Kerman began with the Novem-ber 1854 �exact day unknown; Ms�5.8� Hurjand earthquake along the Tigur cross-thrust in the south �Figures 3 and 4�. Ten years later, the seismicity migrated 30 km tothe WNW along the same cross-thrust �approaching the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault�,where the 17 January 1864 �Ms�6.0� Chatrud �north Kerman� earthquake took place.Eleven years after the second cross-thrust event in the south, in May 1875, an earthquakeof Ms�6.0 took place 70 km to the northwest along the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault inthe Jur-Toghrajerd area �Figures 3 and 4�. Twenty-two years later, the seismicity mi-grated about 30 km to the northwest along the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault, where anearthquake of Ms�5.5 took place on 22 May 1897 at Kuh Banan town �Figures 3 and4�. Five days after this event, the seismicity propagated 110 km to the southeast, whereanother earthquake of Ms�5.5 took place on the Bazargan cross-thrust near Kerman�Figures 3 and 4�. After 14 years of relative seismic quiescence, on 18 April 1911, anearthquake of Ms 6.4 destroyed the city of Ravar in NE �possibly along the Miyanrudcross-thrust; this requires field authentication�. Twenty-two years after the Ravar urbanearthquake in the east, on 28 November 1933, an earthquake of Ms 6.2 destroyed thetown of Behabad, located 110 km to the NW along the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault �Fig-ures 3 and 4�. The seismicity shifted almost 95 km to the SE, where on 15 January 1953an earthquake of Ms 5.5 destroyed Rayhan in the area between the Kuh Banan and theLakar Kuh faults. Twenty-four years later, on 19 December 1977, the Dartangal area wasdestroyed by an earthquake of Ms 5.8 with 20 km of surface faulting along the Kuh Ba-nan strike-slip fault �Figures 3 and 4�. A year later, on 22 May 1978, the Behabad area�110 km NW of Dartangal� was rocked by an Ms 5.3 event.

Almost three years later, the seismicity propagated southwards to the Gowk faultsystem, where a sequence of Mw 5.4-7.1 earthquakes ruptured 90 km of the Gowk faultat the surface during time intervals of 1981 to 1998 �see below; Figure 5�. During thistime interval, on 6 August 1984, an Mw 5.3 earthquake took place along eastern con-tinuation of the Darbidkhun cross-thrust in the Hur area, east of the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault �Figures 3 and 4�. Five years after the last earthquake along the Gowk faultsystem �Figure 5�, on 26 December 2003, an earthquake of Mw 6.6 destroyed the city ofBam in the south �see below�. Finally, 14 months after the 2003 Bam urban earthquake,on 22 February 2005, an earthquake of M 6.4 took place 240 km to the NW of Bam,
w


Figure 4. Sequence of the known earthquake pattern and rupture propagation during differentearthquakes along the Kuh Banan strike-slip and cross-thrust fault system in the Kuh Bananfold-thrust mountains, based on data from Figure 3.

Figure 5. See footnote on facing page.

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along the Darbidkhun cross-thrust in the Kuh Banan fold-thrust Mountains �Figures 3and 4�. As with the Superstition Hills earthquake in November 1987 �Hudnut et al. 1989;Sharp et al. 1989�, cross-fault movement in the Kuh Banan fold-thrust mountains maycontrol both the timing and extent of a major devastating earthquake along the Kuh Ba-nan strike-slip fault towards the provincial capital city of Kerman.

The very short historical seismic history of the Kuh Banan right-lateral strike-slipand cross-thrust fault system �Berberian et al. 1979, 1984; Berberian 1995a� discussedabove clearly shows an absence of large-magnitude earthquakes along the Kuh Bananstrike-slip fault system for the last 150 years. During this short time period, severalearthquakes ranging in magnitude from small to moderate �Ms 5.0-6.4� took place withshorter seismic gaps in between. The gaps have not been the site of earthquakes since atleast 1875 �Figure 5�. Presumably, these small-to-moderate earthquakes represent localreadjustments of strain during interseismic cycles and have different recurrence mecha-nisms than those of large events. The pattern is similar to the seismicity pattern along theGowk fault prior to the 28 July 1981 �Mw 7.1� Sirch earthquake �Figure 5�. Unlike theGowk fault �see below�, no maximum credible earthquake �MCE� has been documentedin the 150 years of recorded seismic history of the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault. The prob-ability of simultaneous rupturing of contiguous segments with MCE increases with thepassage of time since the previous MCE. This is the result of continuing tectonic defor-mation, which further stresses the locked fault segments. Hence, the likelihood of anMCE along the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault system, next to the provincial capital city ofKerman �Figure 3�, is presumably higher than that along the Sirch �northern and central�segment of the Gowk fault �Figure 5�.

There are at least 12 major phases of documented reconstruction in the provincialcapital city of Kerman prior to the 1875 Jur earthquake �Ms�6.0; Table 2�.The causesof these destruction/reconstruction phases were never analyzed. The documented nine-teenth and twentieth century earthquakes have wreaked havoc in the provincial capitalcity of Kerman. The 17 January 1864 �Ms�6.0� Chatrud �north Kerman� earthquake�Figure 3� caused considerable damage in Kerman where the eyvan �barrel-vaulted hall,the fourth side of which opens onto a courtyard� of the Mozafari Jame’ �“congrega-tional”� mosque �c. A.D. 1349� collapsed, and the walls of the Qobeh Sabz �“Green Cu-pola”; c. 1242� were damaged in Kerman �Table 2�. The Mozafari Jame’ mosque wasrestored in 1868 and the Malek Jame’ mosque of Kerman �c. 1085� a year earlier. The 27May 1897 �Ms�5.7� Hutk earthquake caused serious damage in Kerman, where the

Figure 5. Messoseismal area of medium-to-large magnitude earthquakes �top� and space-time diagram �bottom�of nearly 128 years of recorded historical seismicity along the Gowk fault system, southeast Iran. Faults as inFigure 1. Zones of extensive damages are shown by ellipses on the map. Where the dates of the earthquake areshown, it is given by year.month.day. Faults with documented surface ruptures are shown by thicker line. Theportion of the Shahdad thrust which showed aseismic slip in response to the 1998.03.14 �Mw 6.6� event isshown by a thicker broken line. Solid lines in the bottom space-time diagram indicate an earthquake known tohave ruptured the ground surface; dashed lines indicate highly probable surface-rupturing events. Filled tri-angle: Archaeological site. Distances are along strike with respect to the northeren edge of the 1981 Zamanabadslip gap. A: Ab-e-Garm, CF: Chahar Farsakh, F: Fandoqa, J: Jowshan, Z: Zamanabad. Modified after Berberianet al. �1984�; Berberian and Yeats �1999�; and Berberian et al. �2001�. For the northern and the southern con-
tinuation, see Figures 3 and 8, respectively.

Table 2. Destruction and reconstruction phases in the provincial capital city of Kerman �see also Figure 3�

Peepairs, andrks Source

20 d „V…; 23, 7 killed in

killed in

isna.ir

19 ozafari,osques,bak tomb

Berberian et al.,1984

19 d „VI… Berberian et al.,1979

19 ; somean

18 inf Qobeh

Ambraseys andMelville, 1982;Berberian, 1995a

18 Malek Vaziri Kermani,1876

18 Jame’ Vaziri Kermani,1876; BastaniParizi, 1987

18 mage inofozaffariof Qobeh

Ambraseys andMelville, 1982;Berberian, 1995a

18 ajars Bastani Parizi,1987

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riod/Date MonumentsEarthquakes

�Magnitude, Intensity�Destruction, R

Rema

05.02.22 Darbidkhun „6.4, VIII… Zarand damagekilled in ZarandKerman, and 3Ravar

81.07.28 Sirch „7.1, IX… Malek, Jame’ Mand Pamenar mand Khajeh Atatower cracked

77.12.19 Dartangal/Zarand „5.7,VII+…

Zarand damage

11.04.18 Ravar „6.4, VIII… Ravar destroyeddamage in Kerm

97.05.27 Hutk-Chatrud „�VII,�5.7…

Serious damageKerman; dome oSabz collapsed

68 Repair of Masjed

67 Repair of MasjedMozaffari

64.01.17 Chatrud „�VIII, �6.0… Considerable daKerman; EyvanMasjed Jame’ Mcollapsed; wallsSabz damaged

63 Repairs by the Q



18 an Ambraseys andMelville, 1982;Berberian, 1995a

18 Meshkati, 1970

18 im KhanQajar

Bastani Parizi,1987

17 Mohammad Khan Qajar17 and

jed Jame’Meshkati, 1970

17 Quarter of Kerman17 en17 en16 Jame’

the reignI

15 truction by Bastani Parizi,1987

15 Meshkati, 1970

15 Vaziri Kermani,1876

TH

E2003

BA

M,IR

AN

,EA

RT

HQ

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:AP

RE

DIC

TA

BL

ES

EIS

MO

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ON

ICP

AT

TE

RN

S59



Rema

54.11.00 Hurjand „�VIII, �5.8… Damage in Kerm

17 MadresehEbrahimKhan�Zahiral-Dowleh�

Construction

03-1824 Repairs by EbrahZahir al-Dowleh,

94 Invasion, Destruction, Massacre, and Oppression by Agha62 Repair of menar

goldasteh of MasMozaffari

47 Invasion of the Afghans, who Razed the Old Zoroastrian22 Invasion of the Afghan Ghalzai Tribem20 Invasion of the Afghan Ghalzai Tribem42-66 Repair of Masjed

Mozaffari duringof Shah ‘Abbas-I

96-1625 Repairs and consGanj ‘Ali Khan

98 MadresehGanj ‘AliKhan

Construction

84 Ganj ‘AliKhanmosque

Construction



14 wall byi

Vaziri Kermani,1876

14� tion13 Meshkati, 1970

13 he 14th

e Al-Vaziri Kermani,1876; BastaniParizi, 1987

12 gu12 Meshkati, 1970;

Bastani Parizi,1987; Moradi,1999

12 rman escaped the invasion�12�por

doublea strong24-642�

Pope, 1965; Hutt,1970

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Rema

32 Repair of the cityShahrokh Gurkan

16 Invasion of Shahrokh1392�1335-1405� Invasion of Tamurlane �Timur�, Devasta91 Masjed

PamenarConstruction

49 MasjedJame’Mozaffari,and Bazzar

Eyvan added in tcentury during thMozaffari reign.

51-1256 Second Mongol Invasion under Hula42 Qobeh/

Gonbad Sabz�TorkanKhatuntomb�

Construction

18-1220 First Invasion of the Mongol Hordes under Chinghis Khan �Keth centuryre-Islamicigin�

GonbadSangiJabaliyeh�JabaliyehDome orStoneMountain� orGobad Gabri�ZoroastrianDome�

The oldest knowndome in Iran withSassanian �A.D. 2influence



12 ollapsedrrying its

Meshkati, 1970

11 Dindar Bastani Parizi,1987

11 estroyed the Zoroastrian Quarter ofy to Zarand

10 Bastani Parizi,1987

10 Hill & Grabar,1967; VaziriKermani, 1876

10 � and the GhaznavidsA.93

Alilias,

e city wall

Bastani Parizi,1987; Moradi,1999

A. estruction of the Zoroastrian Fire

A.22

d built theatingr of Bam.

English, 1966;Fehervari andCaldwell, 1967;Bastani Parizi,1987; Moradi,1999

Pa�2B.22

vad, ther of Bam

Bastani Parizi,1987

TH

E2003

BA

M,IR

AN

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:AP

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S61



Rema

th century KhajehAtabakTomb tower

One of its sides cby earthquake, cadome with it.

88 Repairs by MalekGhozz

87 Ghozz Tukmans Plundered and Half-Ruined the City of Kerman and DKerman; Transfer of the Provincial Capital Cit

91 Repairs by MalekTuranshah Saljuq

85 Malek�Turan Shah�Jame’mosque

Construction

40-1055 Invasion of Saljuq Turks; Fall of the Buyids �DailamitesD.3-938

Repairs by Abu ‘Mohammad ibn-EFortification of th

D. 651 Invasion of the Arab Moslems; Fall of the Great Sassanian Empire; DTemples at Kerman

D.4-239

Qal’ehArdeshir�Ardeshir’sFort�; Area=6 km2

Ardeshir SassaniQal’eh after defeHaftvad, governo

rthian50C.-A.D.4�

City wall Repaired by HaftParthian governoand Kerman



33 t Achaemenian EmpireAc�5B.

Fehervari andCaldwell, 1967;Bastani Parizi,1987; Moradi,1999

a NAf an in AD 1084-1096� ordered the building of hisne man city limits, and many endowments thereto...”�A pp. 367-368; and Mir Mohammad Sa’id Mashizi:Th Mosque �built in AD 1085�, there is no evidenceof

S62

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Rema

0 B.C. Invasion of Alexander-III of Macedonia; Fall of the Greahaemenian

50-330C.�

Qal’ehDokhtar�Maiden’sFort� theoldestcitadel withthe AnahitaTemple;Area=2 km2

Reconstruction

otes on Table 2:zal al-Din Kermani �12th-13th centuries AD� wrote: “...In AD 1065, Malek Turanshah �the Saljuq ruler of Kermw palace, the Jame’ Mosque, a theological college, a Dervish monastery, a hospital, and a public bath outside Kerfzal al-Din Abu Hamed Kermani: The Saljuqs and the Ghuzz in Kerman, ed. M. I. Bastani Parizi, Tehran 1994,e Safavids of Kerman, ed. M. I. Bastani Parizi, Tehran, 1990, p. 276�. At present, except for the Malek Turanshahthe other builidngs constructed by Malek Turanshah in the 11th century AD.


dome of Qobeh Sabz monument �c. 1242�, already supported by a half-ruined structure,collapsed �Table 2�. During the 18 April 1911 �Ms 6.4� Ravar urban earthquake �120 kmNNW of Kerman�, few buildings were damaged in the provincial capital city of Kerman�Figure 3�.

The Malek �c. 1085� and the Jame’ Mozafari �1349� mosques in Kerman, which wererepaired in the sixteenth century as well as after the 1864 Chatrud earthquake, crackedduring the 28 July 1981 �Mw 7.1� Sirch earthquake, which took place along the Gowkfault in the southeast �Figure 5�. The Pamenar mosque �1390� in Kerman was also dam-aged by the 1981 Sirch earthquake. Vertical fissures, which were present in the walls ofthe twelfth century Khajeh Atabak Barghush tomb tower monument before the 1981Sirch earthquake, expanded as a result of this event �Vaziri Kermani 1876; Pope 1965;Hutt 1970; Meshkati 1970; Berberian et al. 1984; Bastani Parizi 1987; Moradi 1999�.The 22 February 2005 �Mw 6.4� earthquake, along the Darbidkhun cross-thrust east ofZarand, caused some damage in Kerman, where seven people were reported killed �GSI2005; isna.ir�. �Figure 3, Table 2�.

It is important to note that, with the exception of the monuments in the city of Ker-man, which were restored several times �Table 2�, all the historic buildings in theKerman-Zarand plain dating from the ninth to the seventeenth centuries have been com-pletely destroyed by unknown causes. These ruined monuments �Figure 3, Table 2� are asfollows:

• The ninth- or early tenth-century and the sixteenth- and seventeenth-centuryruins at the Gajin mound, 4 km south of Baghain, at the southeastern tip of theJorjafk fault �Fehervari and Caldwell 1967�;

• The ninth-to-thirteenth-century ruins at the Kuh-e-Panbeh Paran �“CottonThrowing Mountain”� mound, between Kerman and Baghain, at the southeast-ern tip of the Jorjafk fault �Fehervari and Caldwell 1967�;

• The tenth-century castle and mosque at Zarand, the provincial capital cityfrom 1187 to 1222. On its ruins, the eighteenth-century Jame’ mosque ofZarand is built, with remains of the destroyed Saljuq �Seljuk� minaret set intothe inner walls of the eighteenth-century mosque �Hutt 1970�;

• The tenth-to-eleventh-century ruins at Sarasiab Shish, NW of Kerman near theKuh Banan fault �Fehervari and Caldwell 1967�;

• The eleventh-to-twelfth-century ruins at Goshgin, east of Kerman in the cross-thrust belt �Fehervari and Caldwell 1967�;

• The thirteenth-century ruins NW of Hutk, NW of Kerman near the Kuh Bananfault �Fehervari and Caldwell 1967�; and

• Undated ruined castle at Zangiabad, WNW of Kerman; and the ruins atQal’eh Hosseinabad �Qal’eh Nubera� and Qal’eh Khaneh near Baghain, at thesoutheastern tip of the Jorjafk fault �Fehervari and Caldwell 1967� �Figure 3,Table 2�.

The critical impacts to these monuments �now in ruins�—in conjunction with the ab-

S64 M. BERBERIAN

sence of any monument before the eighteenth century in the Kerman-Zarand plain—warrant analysis �Table 2, Figure 3�. Furthermore, Muqaddasi �1985� describes the townof “Janzrud” on the “Janz River” �half way between Kerman and Zarand, shown by aninverted triangle with question mark in Figure 3� as possessing a mosque standing in thebazaar. Today, no trace of this tenth-century town remains, and the cause of its destruc-tion is unknown.

SEISMIC PATTERN ALONG THE GOWK FAULT SYSTEM„NW OF BAM, SE OF KERMAN…

The Gowk fault system has been associated with five earthquakes of Mw 5.4-7.1 inthe last 24 years �Berberian et al. 1984, 2001; Figures 1 and 5�, in contrast to the Nay-band fault �to the north� and the Sabzevaran and Bam faults �to the south; Figure 1�, forwhich there is no recorded historical evidence of seismicity over the last 1,000 years�Ambraseys and Melville 1982; Berberian 1981, 1995a, 1996; Berberian and Yeats 1999,2001�. Of course, lack of historic record of seismicity does not indicate lack of seismic-ity.

Modern attention was first drawn to the Gowk fault system by two earthquakes in1981 �Berberian et al. 1984�. The 11 June 1981 Golbaf earthquake �Mw 6.6� producedright-lateral surface ruptures for 15 km south of Zamanabad, with very small surfacedisplacements of up to 3 cm �Figure 5�. This earthquake was followed by the 28 July1981 Sirch earthquake �Mw 7.1�, which was associated with 65 km of discontinuousright-lateral surface ruptures north of Zamanabad, with maximum displacements of lessthan 50 cm �Berberian et al. 1984; Figure 5�. The area south of Zamanabad rupturedagain in the 20 November 1989 South Golbaf earthquake �Mw 5.8�, with 11 km of sur-face ruptures following the identical path of the scarps formed in the 11 June 1981 Gol-baf earthquake �Berberian and Qorashi 1994�. The 14 March 1998 Fandoqa earthquake�Mw 6.6� again ruptured 23 km north of Zamanabad with coseismic surface faulting�with an average right-lateral slip of �1.3 m, and a maximum 3 m� following that ob-served after the 28 July 1981 Sirch earthquake �Berberian et al. 2001�. Finally, a small �Mw 5.4� earthquake on 18 November 1988 near Chahar Farsakh to the north producedminor surface cracking over approximately 4 km, again along the 28 July 1981 earth-quake fault �Figure 5�. During the 1981 to 1998 earthquakes, 90 km of the northern tocentral section of the 160 km Gowk fault system broke at the surface �Figures 5 and 6�.

Berberian et al. �2001� suggested that the overall rupture of the Gowk fault system ispossibly that of a ramp-and-flat thrust, but with strike-slip motion superimposed. Theysuggested that the 1981 earthquake ruptured a deeper, flatter part of the system �number1 in Figure 6 inset�, which later failed on a steeper, shallower fault in 1998 �number 2 inFigure 6 inset�. The steeper ramp underlies the Abbarik Mountains in the west �number3 in Figure 6 inset�, while the upper flat part of the thrust system underlies the Shahdadanticlines in the east �number 4 in Figure 6 inset�. With this configuration of faulting, theAbbarik Mountains west of the Gowk Valley are being uplifted as they move over thesteep ‘ramp’ of the fault system �Figure 6 inset�.

Analysis of long-period seismic body-waves and radar interferograms shows that the


Figure 6. Sequence of the known earthquake rupture propagation during different earthquakesalong the Gowk fault system based on data from Figure 5. Fault plane solutions after Berberianet al. �2001�. Inset Left: Structure of the Gowk fault system as proposed by Berberian et al.�2001� and Walker and Jackson �2002�. Gently dipping parts of the system �1 and 4 in inset left�are separated by a steeper ’ramp’ �3� that causes uplift of the Abbarik mountains and localizedoblique normal faulting �2� in the Gowk valley. Sections �3� and �4� show purely thrust motion.A coulomb failure function will help understand the rupture propagation along the Gowk faultsystem.

S66 M. BERBERIAN

14 March 1998 Fandoqa earthquake �Mw 6.6� ruptured a fault dipping west at �50° toa depth of 7-10 km, with a small normal component and a slip vector azimuth of �147°�Berberian et al., 2001�. In addition, synthetic aperture radar �SAR� interferograms showthat a part of the Shahdad fold-and-thrust system 35 km east of the 1988 ruptures in theGowk Valley �Figures 5 and 6� also moved aseismically about 8 cm on a fault dipping6°W between depths of �1 and 5 km, in a time interval �either immediately or within6 months of the 1998 event� that suggests that the slip on the Shahdad thrust was trig-gered by the 1998 strike-slip earthquake �Figures 5 and 6�. The slip-vector azimuth onthe thrust was �062°, nearly perpendicular to that on the Gowk strike-slip fault. Theoblique shortening across the Gowk fault system, required by its general trend ofN155°E, therefore, appears to be achieved by a spatial separation �partitioning� of thestrike-slip and reverse components onto adjacent, subparallel faults �Berberian et al.2001; Walker and Jackson 2002; Fielding et al. 2004�. The gently dipping decollementsurface with blind or partially blind faults is a common feature in the regions of conti-nental shortening and has been inferred beneath many fold-and-thrust belts �Lettis et al.1997�. Shallow thrust faults are also believed to be present beneath urban areas such asLos Angeles �Davis and Namson 1994�, Taiwan �Kao and Chen 2000� and Tehran �Ber-berian and Yeats 1999, 2001�.

Other earthquakes in the Gowk fault region have been documented in historicalrecords, but it is usually difficult to associate them with particular faults. Those since1877 are shown in Figure 5. All of them are smaller than the events of 1981 and 1998and damaged relatively restricted areas. Those that can plausibly be related to the Gowkfault system have their approximate damage regions marked on that assumption. Gaps inthe historic record of earthquakes �Figure 5� may either indicate no seismic activity, orsimply that there is no record of seismicity. Because few population centers are in thesouthern portion of the fault, the lack of a pre-instrumental seismic record may be ac-centuated. From Figure 5 it can be seen that there is more evidence for pre-1981 seis-micity north of Zamanabad than to the south. By contrast, the long strike-slip faults tothe north �the Nayband� and the south �the southern Gowk, the Sabzevaran, and the Bamfaults� are not associated with any known large-magnitude earthquakes in recorded his-torical times �Ambraseys and Melville 1982; Berberian 1981, 1995a, 1996; Berberianand Yeats 1999, 2001�. We return to this issue later in this paper.

Given the detailed waveform modeling and analysis of the seismicity and active tec-tonics of the Gowk fault system �cited above�, Zare and Hamzehloo �2004� were incor-rect in stating that the 1981 Sirch earthquake started as secondary faulting along theGowk fault, or was triggered by activation of the Gowk fault in the hidden continuationof the Kuh Banan fault in their interaction zone.

Assuming the present-day tectonic configuration was initiated �5 Ma ago, a totalcumulative right-lateral offset of 12 km on the Gowk fault, with a slip rate of�2.5 mm/year was estimated by restoration of geomorphic and drainage features�Walker and Jackson 2002, 2004�. This is consistent both with offset bedrock features atthe southern end of the Gowk fault and with a slip-rate on the Nayband fault determinedby K-Ar dating of basaltic rocks since the eruption of the basalt along the Nayband fault�2.08±0.07 Ma; Conrad et al. 1981�. There has been a minimum of 3.2 km of right-


lateral motion along the fault, resulting in a slip-rate of �1.5 mm/year for the Naybandfault, north of the Gowk fault �Figure 5�. Slip along the Nayband fault is transferred inthe south onto the Gowk and Bam faults, along with any slip on the Kuh Banan fault tothe west �will be discussed below; Figure 1�. At 1.5 mm/year, the 12-km offset on theGowk fault could be achieved in 8 Ma or less if there is some enhancement of this slip-rate from the Kuh Banan fault �Walker and Jackson 2002�. It is surprising to have somany earthquakes on a fault system with a low slip-rate of 1.5-2.5 mm/year. We returnto this issue later in this paper.

With slip-rates of �2 mm/year on the Gowk-Nayband fault system, the recurrencetime for events that slip �5 m on the faults 100 km long is likely to be on the order of2,000 years. Earthquakes are likely to be more frequent on the Gowk fault, as well as onthe Kuh Banan fault �discussed above; see Figure 3�, as they are relatively discontinuouswith shorter fault segments that can accumulate less slip between events. Indeed, there ismuch more evidence of activity along the Gowk fault, at least since 1877 �Figure 5�.

SEISMIC PATTERN ALONG THE BAM FAULT SYSTEM

As discussed earlier, three years after a series of earthquakes along the Kuh Bananstrike-slip and cross-thrust fault system �Figure 3�, the seismicity propagated southward,generating the 1981-1998 �Mw 5.7-7.1� earthquake-sequence, with 90 km of surfacerupturing along the Gowk fault system �Figure 5�. Five years after this sequence, theBam fault system was reactivated by an Mw 6.6 earthquake, which demolished the entirecity of Bam.

THE BAM FAULT SYSTEM

A �12-km-long Bam-Baravat segment of the Bam fault system, with a sharp east-facing scarp �Berberian 1976�, lies approximately 5 km to the east of Bam city center,and 45 km east of the southern tip of the Gowk fault system, on the western side of the“aseismic” Lut Desert �Figures 1, 7, and 8�. The Bam-Baravat fault segment, which is aN-S striking fault located between Bam and Baravat �Figure 7�, is clearly visible onaerial photographs and satellite imagery, with some questionable right-lateral offset ofstream beds and qanats,2 and a clear fault scarp approximately 25 m high, downthrow-ing the Baravat town plain to the east �Figure 7; clearly visible traveling along the Bam-Zahedan Road before reaching Baravat�.

The Kerman-Zahedan Railroad has bypassed the Bam-Baravat active escarpment ofthe Bam fault system by means of a z-shaped curve in the area south of Bam to followa smooth topographic contour �Figure 7�. The Bam-Baravat fault segment is located tothe east of an incipient asymmetric fault-propagating anticline at the surface composed

2 Hessami et al. �2004� estimated “a maximum horizontal slip rate of 3-4 mm/year for the offset of qanats,”based on the assumption that “the maximum age of the qanat line is 3,000 years.” It should be emphasized thatqanats in the Iranian plateau were constructed over 5,000 years ago �Neely and Wright, 1994�; however, thereis no data regarding the time of construction of the qanats in Bam. Furthermore, no conclusive evidence has
been found for the “10 m of right-lateral offset of the qanats” reported by Hessami et al., 2004.

S68 M. BERBERIAN

Figure 7. Location of the city of Bam, the town of Baravat, and the Arg �Citadel� of Bam withrespect to the active fault features of the area. �A�: Faults taken from Berberian �1976�; Talebianet al. �2004�; Fielding et al. �2005�. All the faults shown on this figure were reactivated; how-ever, maximum displacement was recorded on the fault just south of the city of Bam. Faultplane solution of a two-source mechanism for the 2003.12.26 �Mw 6.6� Bam urban earthquakeis taken from James Jackson, personal communication 17 November 2004; the dashed lines onthe focal sphere show the nodal planes for the second thrust sub-event with right-lateral motion.Filled triangles are ruined archaeological sites �Fehervari and Caldwell 1967�. *: Bam gover-nor’s building accelerogram with peak horizontal and vertical ground accelerations shown. A:Akbarabad village. AM: Amirabad. D: Dasht-e-Gav. E: Espikan village. H: Hosseinabad. K:Khajehee Bala. QD: Qal’eh Dokhtar �Maiden’s castle�. PR: Poshtrud village. R: Rahimabad.RR: Bam railroad station. Z: Zaidabad. ZC: Zaidabad Chehel Tokhm. Z12: Ziyaratgaheh 12Emam. �B� and �C� Medieval circumvallated inner city �Sharestan/Shahrestan/Dezh/Qal’eh� ofBam, with the Old City Friday mosque of AD 1751 built on the site of the destroyed medievalFriday mosque �#11 in �B�� and the citadel �Arg/Kohandezh/Hesn; #s 7 through 10 in �B� andfilled in �C� and �A�� Gaube 1979�. Numbers and letters in �B� are as follows: 1-City Gate�main entrance�, 2- Bazaar �market place�, 3- Maydan-e- Takiyeh �square, circle�, 4- Caravan-serai �traditional inn�, 5- Citadel Terrace, 6- Citadel Gate, 7- Square with Stables, 8- ArtilleryPark �Maydan-e-Toopkhaneh�, 9- Chahar Fasl �four seasons�, 10- Governor’s Mansion �Shah-neshin�, 11- the 1751 restored Friday mosque, 12- Zurkhaneh �traditional gymnasium�, 13- Af-fluent Mansion, 14- Square of northwestern quarter. AC- North-South urban axes �street�, DE-East-West urban axes �street�, and F, G, H- City Gates.


Figure 8. Fault map of the southern Gowk fault and the Bam fault systems west of the LutDesert �aseismic block� in southeast Iran. Faults as in Figure 1. Filled triangles show location ofthe ruined historic sites. Fault plane solution of a two source mechanism for the 2003.12.26�Mw 6.6� Bam urban earthquake is taken from James Jackson, personal communication on 17November 2004; the dashed lines on the focal sphere show the nodal planes for the secondthrust sub-event with right-lateral motion. Aftershock zone is taken from Tatar et al. �2004�.The strike-slip deformation along the southwestern end of the Gowk fault and the Bam faultsystems, and the northern end of the Sabzevaran fault is absorbed by active shortening alongthe Barez Mts. The Figure overlaps with, and is the southward continuation of, Figure 5. Re-
corded right-lateral displacement along the Gowk fault is shown in boxes.

S70 M. BERBERIAN

of incised Pleistocene �accurate age is not known3� yellow to brown, slightly induratedsilt, sand, gravel and clay �GSI, 1993a, b�. This young and remarkable morphotectonicfeature is a result of long-term cumulative deformation during late Quaternary. It is awest-dipping high-angle reverse fault with a possible right-lateral strike-slip motion.

The Bam-Baravat fault segment is a member of the NW-SE trending Bam fault sys-tem, and is composed of numerous subparallel strike-slip fault strands, exposed to theNNW, E, and SSE �the last segment requires authentication� of the city of Bam, with atotal length of ��110 km �Figure 8�. In the mountains north of Bam and the PoshtrudRiver, the system with steps and stopovers, a few km from each other, is clearly exposed�Figures 7 and 8�.

HISTORICAL SEISMIC DATA OF BAM

Typically, pre-1900 historical earthquake records are incomplete and suggest a biastowards earthquakes that have damaged major population centers �Ambraseys andMelville 1982; Berberian 1981, 1995a, 1996, 1997; Berberian and Yeats 1999�. Hence,no recorded historical seismic data are available for Bam, as with other remote desertand semi-desert areas with very low population densities in Iran. For this reason, it can-not be definitively stated that the city of Bam has not been affected by a destructive his-torical earthquake prior to 1751 �the reconstruction date of the Friday mosque in themedieval circumvallated inner city of Bam; Gaube 1979�. Therefore, the seismic quies-cence observed in Bam during the pre-instrumental era, as well as low seismicity duringthe instrumental era �Engdahl et al. 1998� is suspect, particularly in light of the presenceof active deformation and youthful tectonic landforms �active Holocene fault scarps andfold development� in the Bam area.

It has been incorrectly assumed that no major earthquake has taken place in Bamover the past 2,000 to 2,500 years �see Zare and Hamzehloo 2004; Ghafory-Ashtiany2004; Fu et al. 2004; Askari et al. 2004; Munich Re Group 2004�. This assumption isbased on the mistaken belief that the present citadel of Bam is between 2,000 and 2,500years old. A minimum return period of 2,000 to 2,500 years for a medium-magnitudeearthquake along the western margin of the Lut block has not been substantiated. TheBam Citadel was destroyed 1774 years ago during the reign of King Ardeshir BabakanSassanid �reigned AD 224-241; see the quotation in the Introduction�. Since then, therehave been at least ten phases of documented reconstruction phases at the citadel �Table3�. As mentioned above, the oldest recorded partially standing structure in the citadelwas the AD 1751 reconstructed mosque, rebuilt exactly 254 years ago �Gaube 1979; Fig-ure 7, Table 3�, and much of the citadel dates from the late eighteenth and nineteenthcenturies. Furthermore, it is impossible for an earthen structure, being constructed en-

3 Although the age of the sediments is not known, Hessami et al. �2004� attributed the sediments to “the lastimportant post-glacial deposition following the last glacial peak �18 to 10 ka�.” Based on this assumption, theauthors estimated a minimum vertical slip rate of 1.4-2.5 mm/year for the Bam-Baravat fault segment. In my
opinion, these assertions are not backed by sufficient scientific data.

Table 3. Destruction/reconstruction phases in the medieval circumvallated inner city of Bam �see also Figure 7�

Pe marks Sources

20 See sources inthis study

19 del Tayyari, 199719 el Tayyari, 199719 Tayyari, 199718 Tayyari, 199718 ircumvallated inner city to the new city17 riday mosque �the

mosque �repairedat the site of the

eval Friday

Gaube, 1979

17 donedSa Behzadi, 1991Ti after Shahrokh’s

anBehzadi, 1991

Su the mosque dated Bantani Parizi, 1989

Al by Mohammadodi, founder of Al-

Behzadi, 1991

Qa Behzadi, 1991En After being

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Behzadi, 1991

Tu Behzadi, 1991‘AEl

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riod/Date Earthquakes Repair Date Re

03 2003.12.26 �Mw

6.6, VIII�Complete destruction of Bamby a medium-magnitudeearthquake

93-95 1993-95 Repairs at cita72 1972 Repairs at citad58 1958 Repairs43 1843 Repairs40 The present Bam was founded and people moved from the medieval c51 1751 Repair of the F

present Fridayin 1751� standsdestroyed medimosque�

19 and 1721-30 Invasions of Afghans; Bam City Abanfavids 1502-1722 Reconstructionmurids 1416 Reconstruction

attack of Kermltan Oways Timuri 1407 Inscription on

1407-Mozafar of Kerman 1340-1364 Reconstruction

Mozafar MeybMozafar

rakhatais of Kerman 1218-1335 Reconstructiond of Kermani Saljuq 1187-1195 Reconstruction

defeated by MaTurkman Ghoz

ran Shah Saljuq 1084-94 Reconstructionli ibn Mohammadias Samanid

A.D. 933 Reconstruction


Pe marks Sources

A. ; Destruction of the Zoroastrian Fire

ArSa

ruction of Bam:g Haftvad andftvad Silk Worm’.ocked the area,, killed all the

Book of ArdashirPabagan, AD 272;Ferdowsi Tusi, AD1010; MostaufiQazvini, 1340;Behzadi, 1991

Pa Behzadi, 199133 eat Achaemenian EmpireAc Behzadi, 1991Pr

f Bam�Shirazi, 1994;Karimi, 1999

S72

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riod/Date Earthquakes Repair Date Re

D. 644 Invasion of the Arab Moslems; Fall of the Great Sassanian EmpireTemples at Bam

deshir Babakanssanid � A.D. 226

A possiblemetaphoricreference toearthquake „?…and Invasion„?…

A.D. 226 Complete destAafter defeatinkilling the ‘HaWorm burst, rdestroyed Bampeople.

rthians 174 B.C.-A.D. 224 Reconstruction0 B.C. Invasion of Alexander-III of Macedonia; Fall of the Grhamaenids 550-330 B.C. Reconstruction

ehistoric Mounds Biderun mound �10 km west of Bam�Tal-e-Atashi �Fire temple mound� in Darestan �30 km northeast o


tirely of unreinforced, unfired, fragile mud, straw, and softwood date palm logs �infestedby termites�, to withstand 2,500 years of erosion, wear and tear, numerous invasions andpolitical upheavals, and earthquakes.

Apparently the collapsed section of the Bam Citadel revealed earlier cultural layersdating possibly back to the great Achaemenid Empire of 559 B.C. to 330 B.C. �Lawler2004�. Prehistoric mounds have also been reported from Bideran �10 km west of Bam�and Tal-e-Atash �“Fire Mound/Fire Temple”� at Darestan �30 km NE of Bam� �Shirazi1994� �Figures 7 and 8, Table 3�. The potsherds collected from the medieval Bam Cita-del, the medieval circumvallated inner city of Bam �the old Bam�, the Chehel TokhmCastles, the Caravanserai along the road to Darestan �4 km east of Bam�, and the ruins7 km SE of Bam near Baravat �Figures 7 and 8� indicate the Samanid �892-999�, Saljuq�1000-1218�, Timurid �1370-1520�, and early Safavid �sixteenth century� periods �Fe-hervari and Caldwell 1967�. This data—together with the carved date of 1751 on themihrab �arched niche indicating direction of prayer� of the present mosque, which is150 m SE of the Citadel; inside the walled medieval city of Bam �see Figure 7; Gaube1979�—indicate that most of the present-day remains of the Bam Citadel are from mid-Safavid �late eighteenth century onward�. As with the Kuh Banan/Jorjafk fault case dis-cussed earlier �Figure 3�, the ruin of all the structures in the Bam area from the ninthcentury to the mid-eighteenth century and the cause of their destruction were never ana-lyzed �Figures 7 and 8, Table 3�. The Citadel and the medieval city of Bam were restoredseveral times �Gaube 1979; Behzadi 1991; Shirazi 1994; Tayyari 1997; Karimi 1999�,but here again the catalyst for these reconstruction efforts �invasion, natural disaster,wear and tear, aging, etc.� remains unknown �Table 3�.

Since 1900 at least nine earthquakes �some local� were recorded as felt at Bam.These are as follows:

• 1974, December 8 �22:10 local time/18:40 GMT, with no recorded instrumen-tal data; Keyhan Newspaper 1353.09.18�;

• 1990, June 26 �08:31 local time/04:59 GMT; Ms 4.8; Etela‘at Newspaper1369.04.06�;

• 1994, September 18 �01:26 GMT, mb 3.9, in the vicinity of the Bam earth-quake aftershock of 2004.01.31 of mb 4.1, southwest of Bam�;

• 1998, December 9 �21:36 GMT, mb 4.7�;• 2002, December 13 �00:36 GMT, mb 4.2; in the vicinity of the Bam earth-

quake aftershock of 20 March 2004 of mb 3.6, west of Bam�;• 2003, March 1 �18:45 GMT, mb 4.5�;• 2003, August 4 �03:28 GMT, Mw 5.6, on the Kahurak fault about 120 km east

of Bam along the eastern margin of the Lut block�;• 2003, August 21 �04:02 GMT, Mw 5.9, on the Kahurak fault about 120 km

east of Bam along the eastern margin of the Lut block�; and

• 2003, September 28 �22:17 GMT, mb 3.9�.

The Bam urban earthquake of 26 December 2003 along the western margin of theLut block �at latitude 29.00N� was preceded four months earlier, on 4 August 2003 and

S74 M. BERBERIAN

21 August 2003, by two earthquakes of Mw 5.6 and Mw 5.9 along the eastern margin ofthe Lut block �at the same latitude; see Figure 1 for 29.00N latitude in the Lut Block�.This issue will be revisited later in this report.

THE THREE ALARMING BAM FORESHOCKS

At least three local foreshocks were felt in Bam the night before the mainshock.These foreshocks were felt on 25 December 2003, at approximately 15:00 and 22:00local time ��11:30 and �18:30 GMT; 14.5 & 7.5 hours before the mainshock�, andlater at 04:33 local time �01:03 GMT; exactly 53 minutes before the mainshock� on 26December 2003. The latter was only recorded on the BHRC �Building and Housing Re-search Center� SSA-2 accelerogram located at the Bam governor’s office �BAM-1,record No.3168-1: 29.09N-58.35E; with S-P=1.5 sec, uncorrected PGA: L=17.13, V=8.32, T=7.04 �cm/s2�, and azimuth: L/T direction=278° /8°; BHRC, 2004�. No otherinstrumental data have been found with respect to these foreshocks, and except for thelast foreshock, the exact origin times and other seismic parameters are not available. Ap-parently, the foreshocks were not detected by the Iranian seismic networks.

One of the Iranian Red Crescent Society volunteers, Mahmood, was awakened by thelast alarming foreshock �04:33 local time, 01:33 GMT, 53 minutes before the main-shock�. Recalling the two shocks felt the day before, he managed to reach 25 families bytelephone and persuaded them to spend the cold night outside near his office. Unfortu-nately, while he was still clutching the telephone receiver in his hand, the main shockstruck, and his body, along with those of his wife and two children were found under therubble of his house �IFRC, 2004a�.

THE 2003 COSEISMIC SURFACE FAULTING AT BAM

A series of discontinuous coseismic, left-stepping en-echelon, short surface-rupturesegments �each of 50-100 m long� with a maximum observed right-lateral slip of 20 cmand a slip vector at N10° were mapped in a flat alluvial fan south of the city of Bamextending directly beneath the city at its northern end �Talebian et al. 2004; Fielding etal. 2005�. The coseismic surface ruptures occurred in a region void of active morpho-tectonic features. Additional surface ruptures developed to the north of Bam on foursub-parallel faults, as well as some fractures along the Bam-Baravat segment of the Bamfault system �Figure 7�. No major surface rupture was mapped on the morphologicallypronounced Bam-Baravat fault segment; however, some small-scale surficial fissuringwas reported along the base of the Bam-Baravat fault escarpment in the area south of thePoshtrud River �Figures 7 and 8; Talebian et al. 2004; Fu et al. 2004�.

The Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar �ASAR; Talebian et al. 2004; Fun-ning et al. 2005; Fielding et al. 2005�, and Differential Radar �D-In-SAR; Wang et al.2004� interferometry analysis of the 2003 Bam urban earthquake showed that the mainsurface rupture of the earthquake did not occur on the Bam-Baravat segment of the Bamfault system, but on a vertical N-S fault 4 km to the west, immediately south of Bam, ina region void of surface features.

The major fault slip that caused the 2003 earthquake occurred at depths below 1-


2 km, beneath the surface ruptures south of Bam, and extended northward beneath thecenter of the city �Talebian et al. 2004; Fielding et al. 2005�. Waveform inversion analy-sis of the mainshock shows a two-source mechanism with an interval of approximately8-10 seconds: �1� a right-lateral strike-slip faulting with larger moment release and cen-troid depth of 6 km; and �2� a thrust mechanism, dipping 64° W, with some right-lateralmotion with centroid depth of 7 km and smaller moment release. Waveform modeling ofthe mainshock suggests that the rupture propagated northward along the seismogenicfault �Talebian et al. 2004; James Jackson personal communication, 17 November 2004�.

The total rupture length estimated by Wang et al. �2004� is about 24 km in threesegments �13 km in the south, 6 km in the north, and a middle connecting segment of5 km�. The southern and northern segments are in agreement with those reported byTalebian et al. �2004� and Fielding et al. �2005�. The middle segment introduced byWang et al. �2004�, which connects between the southern and the northern fault seg-ments below the city of Bam, seems arbitrary, and provides minimal insight with respectto comprehending the situation underneath the city. Wang et al. �2004� also maintainsthat the southern and the middle fault segments dip 75°-80° E, while the northern seg-ment dips 55° W. More than 80% of the seismic moment was released from its southernsegment of about 13 km, where slip reached a maximum of up to 20 cm resulting in astress drop of at least 6 MPa.

Despite the published detailed analysis of the Bam urban earthquake and the 2003N-S coseismic surface fault ruptures cited above, unsubstantiated and conflicting claimsregarding the source of this earthquake abound �Zare 2003; Zare and Hamzehloo 2004;Hessami et al. 2004; Ghafory-Ashtiany 2004; Fatemi-Aghda 2004; and Andalibi 2004�.

DAMAGE DISTRIBUTIONS AND STRONG GROUND MOTION

Bam city, Bam Citadel, and the town of Baravat are located adjacent to an activefault with a pronounced escarpment, as well as on top of a buried or blind seismic fault,at the northern end of the 2003 coseismic surface rupture, where intense shaking wasconcentrated �Figure 7�. The damage distribution in the city of Bam �NCC 2003; ICG2004� shows that the destruction was located along a N-S corridor of approximately5 km wide, from the central to the eastern quarters of the city. An E-W rapid attenuationof destruction and damage with distance from the 2003 coseismic fault line was themain characteristic of the Bam urban earthquake.

A peak vertical ground acceleration �PGA� of nearly 1.0 g �980 cm/s2� and hori-zontal acceleration of 0.8 g �799 cm/s2� were recorded in the governor’s building �SE ofthe 17 Shahrivar Square, marked by a star in Figure 7� in the area north of the coseismicsurface rupture at the city of Bam �BHRC 2003, 2004�. Although the maximum groundacceleration at the Bam accelerogram was recorded for the vertical component of themotion, the N-S horizontal component showed the largest energy flux, largest maximumvelocity, and maximum ground displacement �BHRC 2003, 2004�.The observed re-sponse spectrum of all three components of motion at the city of Bam show a peak inthe period range of 0.5 to 1.5 seconds corresponding to 0.6 to 2.0 Hz. The observed

S76 M. BERBERIAN

response spectra were clearly above the Iranian building code design requirements�BHRC 1999�, especially at low periods �high frequencies�, which are typical for one- ortwo-story buildings �ICG 2004; BHRC 2004�.

Prior to the earthquake, very low-to-low seismic risk was indicated for Bam �0.15-0.20 g� and Baravat �0.15 g� on the National Seismic Hazard Map of Iran prepared bythe Ministry of Housing and Urban Development of Iran �BHRC 2004; GSHAP; Tava-koli and Ghafory-Ashtiany 1999�. Although the 2003 coseismic surface rupture areasouth of Bam had no morphotectonic features prior to the earthquake, faults along itsnorthern continuation �north of Bam and the Poshtrud River� were clearly exposed asdisplacing the Eocene volcanic rocks, as well as recent deposits east of the city �west ofBaravat; Figure 7�.

The PGA distribution maps for 475 and 2475 years, prepared for microzonation ofthe city of Bam after the earthquake �Askari et al. 2004�, are mainly based on hazardsassociated with the Bam-Baravat fault segment source in the east, and the 2003 coseis-mic fault has not been considered as a seismic source in the study. Hence, the recom-mended PGA distribution maps show the lowest PGA values covering the central andnorthern portion of the city of Bam, which underwent strong ground motion in 2003.

THE LOCALLY RECORDED BAM AFTERSHOCKS

The locally recorded aftershocks �29 December 2003 through 30 January 2004� in-dicated strike-slip faulting that extended approximately 30 km N-S �much longer thanthe mapped coseismic surface faulting� underneath the city of Bam, with focal depthslocated 6 to 20 km �much deeper than the 6 km centroid depth of the mainshock derivedfrom waveform modeling and the shallow slip derived from ASAR and D-In-SAR analy-sis discussed earlier; Figures 7 and 8�. The aftershock seismogenic zone extended ap-proximately 16 km from the city to the south and 14 km from the city to the north alongthe 2003 coseismic surface ruptures. The aftershock distribution, as well as their right-lateral strike-slip mechanisms, did not show a westward dipping fault plane that could berelated to the west-dipping second subevent �Tatar et al. 2004�. Although some minoractivity �surface cracks� was recorded along the Bam-Baravat segment of the Bam faultsystem, it does not appear that this fault segment moved significantly at the surface, buta deeper portion may have slipped during the 2003 earthquake. It is clear from the radarimage �interferometry and decorrelation� that the surficial cracks observed along theBam-Baravat fault segment are possibly of secondary origin, and/or that the fault mighthave moved a very small amount at very shallow depth �Talebian et al. 2004; Fielding etal. 2005; James Jackson, personal communication, 6 November 2004�.

Based on their locally recorded aftershocks �with a network of 9 portable stations,operating from 6 February 2004 through 7 March 2004�, Suzuki et al. �2004� and Na-kamura et al. �2004� reported a 20 km long linear aftershock zone, branching into three“Y-shaped” segments to the NE and NW approaching the city of Bam. The introducedquestionable fault pattern is based on all the recorded aftershocks with uncertainties inhypocentral locations, the assumed crustal model, the geometrical configuration of thelocal network, and the precision in time keeping and phase reading.


THE 2003 COSEISMIC SURFACE FAULTING AND THE BAM-BARAVAT FAULTSEGMENT: A POSSIBLE BIFURCATION OF A SINGLE FAULT AT DEPTH SOUTHOF BAM

Teleseismic data show the location of the mainshock in the area to the southwest ofBam, far from the coseismic surface rupture and the locally recorded aftershock zone,which is due to location errors of the Iranian teleseismic data �Berberian 1979c�. As dis-cussed earlier, a blind sesismogenic fault underneath the city of Bam with coseismic sur-face ruptures �Talebian et al. 2004; Wang et al. 2004; Fielding et al. 2005; Funning et al.2005; Suzuki et al. 2004; Nakamura et al. 2004� was the responsible source of the event.

Bearing in mind that both strike-slip and dip-slip �reverse� faulting occurred as sub-events of the Bam earthquake mainshock, it is probable that the deeper section of themorphologically pronounced west-dipping high-angle reverse Bam-Baravat fault seg-ment ��6-20 km; supported by the locally recorded aftershocks, and the centroid depthof the mainshock� was reactivated during the mainshock. Towards the ground surface��6-0 km�, the upward propagating rupture bifurcated and a rupture splayed off thefault at shallow depth and propagated underneath the city of Bam �supported by the lackof any geomorphic feature prior to the 2003 earthquake, and the radar interferometryanalysis discussed earlier�. Hence, the Bam-Baravat fault segment of the Bam fault sys-tem did not rupture at the surface with this medium-magnitude earthquake. Presumably,a large magnitude earthquake would have reactivated the Bam-Baravat fault segment atthe surface, as evidenced by its pronounced active morphotectonic features at the surface�with 25 m high escarpment and an incipient asymmetric fault-propagating anticline atthe surface composed of incised Pleistocene deposits, created by historic large-magnitude earthquakes�. Furthermore, the past medium-magnitude earthquakes, similarto the 2003 event, might have reactivated the fault underneath the city, but the small-scale slips were soon obscured by erosion and fluvial sedimentation, which will mostprobably be the case with the 2003 surface rupture. This requires that the high-angle dipof the Bam-Baravat fault segment at depth decreases towards the surface and creates awedged block between the pronounced escarpment in the east �at Baravat� and thecoseismic rupture with no morphotectonic feature in the west �at Bam�. If this assump-tion is correct, then it may explain the heaviest damage in the eastern quarter of the cityof Bam reported by NCC �2003 and 2004� and the destruction of “Fighter’s Town” eastof Bam.

DISCUSSION

During the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries concern over earthquakesand reducing their effects increased in Japan �after the 1855, 1981, and 1923 earth-quakes�, Italy �1908� and the United States �1906�. However, despite the occurrence ofnumerous destructive earthquakes in Iran and other seismically active developing coun-tries �Figure 2, Tables 1 and 4�, sufficient steps have not been taken to minimize theearthquake hazard. The 2003 Bam earthquake and its devastating aftermath may be con-sidered a new unprecedented catastrophe, but in reality it is the predictable unfortunatedemise of a region hindered by political, socio-economic, and cultural factors with ram-pant corruption and no proactive intervention. Tragically, more and more people in haz-

Table 4. Selected examples of major urban earthquake data in Iran and few countries

EconomicLosses/Insured

Losses�US$ m,originalvalues�

AlarmingForeshocks References

524/180 Lawson 1908

? March 28,April 03, &2hr beforemainshock

?/- Mb5.4 �VII�15:30hr before

mainshock

Tchalenko & Berberian 1974;Berberian & Tchalenko 1976;Berberian 1997.

25/- Quittmeyer & Jacob1979; Lawrence et al. 1992.

?/- Berberian & Yeats2001; NCA, October 5& 6, 2004.

120/- Clough 1962.

5,600/- - Huang & Yeh 1997;Huixian et al. 2002.

11/- Berberian 1979a, b, 1982.

14,000/- Wyllie, Jr., andFilson 1989; Philip et al. 1992

10,000/960 BSSA 1991.

7,200/- Felt by amountaineer

22 km north offault@

Berberian et al. 1992.

S78

M.B

ER

BE

RIA

N

Date ofEarthquake�Location�

Magnitude

Io�MMI�

CD�km�

PGA �g�H/V

FaultLength�km�/

Mechanism

PGADistance tothe Eq Fault

�km�Cities Destroyed

�population� Fatalities

% PeopleKilled in the

CityMs Mw

1906.04.18�San Francisco,CA, USA�

8.3 7.9 �IX+ - - 432/RL - San Francisco 3,000

1911.04.18�Ravar, Iran�

6.4 VIII - - ? - Ravar �6,000� 700

1930.05.06�Salmas, Iran�

7.2 X - -��1.0�

�60/RL 6 Salmas�Dilman/Shahpur�,

Iran�18,000�

2,500-4,000 6%�peoplespent

outdoorafter a

foreshock�

1935.05.30�Quetta,Pakisstan�

7.5 X - - 150/RL - Quetta, Pakinstan 30,000-60,000

1948.10.05�Ashkabad,Turkmenistan�

7.2 X - -��1.0�

?/R 0 Ashkabad,Turkmenistan

�198,000�

176,000 88%

1960.02.29�Agadir,Morocco�

�5.7� VII+ - - 0 Agadir, Morocco�33,000�

12,000 36%

1976.07.28�Tabgshan,China�

7.8 XI - -��1.0�

70;140 �A�/RL

0 Tangshan, China�1,000,000�

275,000 �O�650,000-800,000

�E�655,237 �N�

35%-50%65%-80%

1978.09.16�Tabas-e-Golshan, Iran�

7.4 7.3 X 9 0.95/0.75at Tabas

85/R 3 �west offault on

footwall�

Tabas-e-Golshan,Iran

�13,000�

�20,000�11,000 in the

city�

85%

1988.12.07�Spidag,Armenia�

6.7 6.8 VIII+ �25/R-RL, Spidag �25,000�,Gumri �250,000;

52% dest.�,Girovagan

�170,000; 22%dest.�, Armenia

25,000

1989.10.18�Loma Prieta,CA�

7.1 6.9 X 16 0.64 35/R &RL Loma Prieta 62

1990.06.20�Rudbar-Tarom, Iran�

7.4 7.3 X 14 0.65/0.23at Abbar

80/R 11 Rudbar, Manjil,Lowshan, Iran

�?�

�40,000 �E�


EconomicLosses/Insured

Losses�US$ m,originalvalues�

AlarmingForeshocks References

20,000/15,300 BSSA 1996.

200,000/3,000 Yomogida & Nakata 1995,1997.

4,200/120 MCEER 1999

12,000/600 USGS 2000; BSSA 2002.

1,500/- 14.:30hr,7:30hr, & 53

minutes beforemainshock

See sources in thisstudy.

ult�, who was disturbed during the night, left theks, their existence could not be confirmed by the

TH

E2003

BA

M,IR

AN

,EA

RT

HQ

UA

KE

:AP

RE

DIC

TA

BL

ES

EIS

MO

TE

CT

ON

ICP

AT

TE

RN

S79

Date ofEarthquake�Location�

Magnitude

Io�MMI�

CD�km�

PGA �g�H/V

FaultLength�km�/

Mechanism

PGADistance tothe Eq Fault

�km�Cities Destroyed

�population� Fatalities

% PeopleKilled in the

CityMs Mw

1994.01.17�Northridge,CA�

6.8 6.7 VIII+ 19 1.78 R 58

1995.01.16�Hyogo-kenNanbu�Kobe�, Japan�

6.8 6.7 VIII+ 17 0.80-�1.0

9.5/RL Kobe 5,470

1999.09.07�Athens,Greece�

5.9 VII+ 0.60 5�normalizedin the near

field�

Northern suburbsof Athens, Greece

143

1999.08.17�Kocaeli,Turkey�

7.8 7.4 X 17 0.40 145/RL 3.2 Izmit, Turkey 17,127

2003.12.26�Bam, Iran�

6.6 6.5 VIII+ 6 0.8/1.0at Bam

23 �S�, 30�A�/RL

0 Bam, Iran��100,000�

26,500 �O�43,200 �E�

38%-43%

Notes on Table 4:A: Aftershock zoneCD: Centroid depth based on waveform modeling�E�: Estimated casualty number�O�: Official casualty number�N�: News smuggled out of ChinaPGA�H/V�: Peak Ground Acceleration �Horizontal/Vertical�R: ReverseRL: Right-lateralS: At the ground surface@: A few days before the mainshock a mountaineer at Larikhani �near Daylaman; 22 km north of the famountain to sleep in a quiet village at the mountain foot. Although it is possible that he reacted to foreshocnational seismic networks, which has poor coverage.

S80 M. BERBERIAN

ardous seismically active areas remain vulnerable until the next disaster strikes. Al-though the Bam earthquake was foreseeable, there was no effective risk-reducinginfrastructure in place.

CITIES BUILT ON OR ADJACENT TO ACTIVE FAULTS

The catastrophic impact of the 2003 Mw 6.6 Bam earthquake clearly indicated thatthe seismic hazard assessment of urban areas and critical structures built on hidden seis-mogenic faults is a critically important, albeit difficult, endeavor. Reactivation of theseismic fault under the city of Bam created horizontal and vertical accelerations of 0.8and nearly 1.0 g, respectively �Figure 7�. Similar forgotten lessons were learned 43 and27 years earlier, during the Agadir �Morocco� and Tangshan �China� earthquakes �Table4�. During the 29 February 1960 Agadir earthquake �5.7� located directly under the city,the bulk of the city was completely destroyed and over a third of its citizens �12,000 outof 33,000� were killed �Clough 1962�. The Tangshan, China, earthquake of 28 July 1976�Ms 7.8�, which completely destroyed a city of over 1 million, with a 35% to 50% deathtoll, occurred by reactivation of a fault passing through the city �Huang and Yeh 1997;Liu Huixian 2002�.

Vulnerable urban areas in Iran, in which prominent potential seismic sources havebeen mapped under heavily populated centers, include greater Tehran-Karaj �Figures 9and 10�, Tabriz, Neyshabur, Mashhad, Kashan, Natauz, Bushehr, and several other pro-vincial capital cities �Figure 1� with well-documented historical seismic data. All thesecities are located on and/or adjacent to numerous major exposed and blind capablefaults. The situation leaves the country vulnerable to the catastrophic collapse of largenumbers of buildings and infrastructure and large human casualties in the event of a ma-jor urban earthquake.

The extent of destruction and the probable death toll in the poorly constructed andunprepared institutions of the mega-city of Tehran, covering an area of close to 900 sqkm, hugging numerous active faults �Figures 9 and 10�, with a population of greater than7 million living in 1.5 million housing units composed of 48% old and traditional build-ings, and aging infrastructure �SC, P&BOGI�, subjected to the same level of strongground motion recorded in Bam or Tangshan, will be disastrous.

CO-SEISMIC RUPTURE OF SUB-PARALLEL STRIKE-SLIP FAULTS

The documented co-seismic surface ruptures of the Bam urban earthquake tookplace on at least five sub-parallel strike-slip fault segments of the Bam fault system cov-ering a width of approximately 4 km, and a total length of 22.5 km �8 km to the northand 14.5 km to the south of the Poshtrud River; with an aftershock zone 30 km long;Figures 7 and 8�. Nearly simultaneous rupture of side-by-side parallel faults had beenpreviously documented in the Managua, Nicaraguan, earthquake of 23 December 1972�M 6.2�, where four small �up to 10 km long�, equally spaced, parallel faults, within a4-km wide zone, developed, traversing the capital city of Managua. The 1972 surfaceruptures stepped to the right of the 31 March 1931 Managua rupture �Sultan 1931;Brown et al. 1973�. During the 24 November 1987 Elmore Ranch, California, earth-quake �Mw 6.2�, five parallel faults, in a zone that was 8-km wide and 10-km long, de-


Figure 9. Active fault map of the mega-city of Tehran with the rapid and disproportionate area/population growth since it became the capital city of Iran on 1785.03.20. The old Tehran villageis shown as a solid ellipse. Only the 1554, 1867, 1957, 1970, and 1996 city outbound areshown. TNRC 1968: Tehran Nuclear Research Center in the heart of Tehran. The ancient city ofRhagae is located between the present Tehran and Ray cities. Faults as in Figure 1. The E-Wdashed line with + and − in central Tehran indicates anomalies in groundwater elevation �drop-ping to the south�, which could represent a hidden fault beneath heavily populated city �updatedafter Berberian et al. 1985; Berberian and Yeats 1999, 2001; SCI 2004�. Solid triangle: archaeo-
logical site.

S82 M. BERBERIAN

veloped �Kahle et al. 1988; Sharp et al. 1989; Hudnut et al. 1989�. Near its southwesterntermination, left-lateral faults of the Elmore Ranch fault zone intermingled with right-lateral splays of the Superstition Hills faults, which produced a larger �Mw 6.6� earth-quake, 12 hours later on 1987.11.24 �Kahle et al. 1988; Sharp et al. 1989�. Numeroussub-parallel, partially covered faults have already been documented underneath the met-ropolitan area of Tehran �Figure 9�.

REPETITION OF FAULT BREAKS ALONG STRIKE-SLIP FAULTS

Although earthquakes release accumulated elastic strain, they also load and triggerfaults both near to and far from their point of origin, due to changes in static stress, or

Figure 10. Disproportionate population/area growth and major recorded historical earthquakesin the mega-city of Tehran. Tehran has been shaken by at least seven recorded large magnitudeearthquakes since AD 743, when it was significantly smaller in population/area and far less de-veloped than today. Based on Berberian et al. �1985�; Berberian and Yeats �1999, 2001�; SCI�2004�. During the 1830.03.27 �Ms�7.1� earthquake on the Mosha fault �north of the city, seeFigure 9�, which damaged the northern suburbs of Tehran �Shemiranat; with 30 people killed�,the 150,000 population of Tehran was confined to 5 km2 �see also Figure 9�. Its population hasgrown 46.6 times, and its area 180 times to those of 1999. At present, Tehran is the living placeof almost 10% of the country’s population, and almost one fifth of the country’s urbanpopulation.


through dynamic stress changes caused by passing seismic waves; thus rendering suchareas vulnerable to future events �Chinnery 1963; Das and Scholz 1981; Stein 1999;Berberian and Yeats 1999�. The repetition of fault breaks along individual large strike-slip fault systems as previously documented—along the Gowk �Figures 5 and 6; Berbe-rian et al. 2001�, the Kuh Banan �Figure 3 and 4; this study�, the Abiz �Figure 11; Ber-berian et al. 1999�, the North Tabriz �Berberian and Yeats 1999�, and the Mosha/Tehran�Berberian and Yeats 1999, 2001� faults—may provide valuable insight with respect tohow these faults continue to break. The seismic history of the Abiz fault since 1936clearly indicated a northward shifting prior to the October 5, 1997 �7.3� earthquake inthe area northeast of the Lut Block �Figure 11; Berberian et al. 1999�. The case of theGowk fault is more complicated, apparently due to the activation of a deeper ramp aswell as the shallower right-lateral faults. However, in this case a repetitive trend of fault

Figure 11. Sequence of the known historical earthquake rupture propagation along the Abizfault system �see Figure 1 for the location� since 1936 in the northeastern margin of the Lutblock �Berberian et al. 1999�. During the period from 1936 to 1979, the northern segments ofthe Abiz fault broke in a northward-progressing series of three separate ruptures with no over-lapping �1936 �6.6�, 1979 �6.6�, and 1979 �6.1��. Eighteen years later, in 1997 �Mw 7.1�, thewhole fault length of 125 km ruptured overlapping the previously ruptured segments. Due tothe limited data it is impossible to say, however, whether this progression is a characteristic fea-ture of the Abiz fault’s behavior or a simple coincidence. In comparison with the Gowk fault�Figure 6� and the Kuh Banan fault system �Figure 4�, the Abiz case, though less data, showsless complicated faulting scenario. A coulomb failure function will help understand thescenario.

S84 M. BERBERIAN

breaks can be observed �Figure 6�. Finally, in the case of the Kuh Banan strike-slip fault,the interaction between the cross-thrusts and the strike-slip faults give a more compli-cated pattern �Figure 4�.

FAULT SEGMENTS AND THE MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EARTHQUAKE

Both the Gowk fault �Figure 5 and 6� and the Abiz fault �Figure 11� ruptured severalsegments �at least five segments during the 1981 and 1997 earthquakes, respectively�.Similarly, during the 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake, the North Anatolian fault rup-tured at least four segments �USGS 2000�. All these examples show that faulting ofearthquakes would not be confined within a single segment; great care should be takenin analyzing earthquake size scales with fault length; and individual segment lengths�though they may indeed limit earthquake size in some cases� cannot always be used toestimate the maximum credible earthquake �MCE� of an expected event. Unlike theGowk fault �Figure 5�, no MCE has been documented in the 150 years of recorded seis-mic history of the Kuh Banan fault �Figure 3�. The probability of simultaneous rupturingof contiguous segments with a MCE is a serious risk for the provincial capital city ofKerman.

TEMPORAL CLUSTERING IN TIME, LOADING OF ADJACENT FAULTS,AND SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF SURFACE FAULTING

A general review of earthquake patterns along the major strike-slip faults of thewestern Lut block since 1900 �Figure 1� shows a southward and left-step progressingtrend of medium-to-large magnitude earthquake clusters along the Kuh Banan �28 No-vember 1933, 6.2; 19 December 1977, 5.7 in Figure 3�, to the Gowk �11 June 1981, 6.6;28 July 1981, 7.1; 20 November 1989, 5.8; 14 March 1998, 6.6 in Figure 5� and to theBam fault �26 December 2003, 6.6 in Figure 8� systems. About 7, 9, and 10 months afterthe Bam urban earthquake of 2003, several local earthquakes shook the city of Sabze-varan �Jiroft/Qamadan; “Camadi” in Marco Polo, in whose time �AD 1271� the city wasalready completely ruined� along the Sabzevaran strike-slip fault southwest of Bam �Fig-ure 8�. The first earthquake shook Sabzevaran on 13 July 2004 at 02:20 local time/06:50GMT with Ml 4.0 �Iranian Newspapers; payvand.com; irna.ir�. More shocks were felt atSabzevaran on 6 October 2004 �14:46 local time/11:14 GMT; mb 5.1�, and on 7 October2004 �10:43 local time/07:17 GMT; Ml 4.5; the latter was felt in Bam as well; IranianNewspapers�. Finally on 24 October 2004 an earthquake �12:19 local time/15:49 GMT;mb 3.7� shook the city of Sabzevaran. The population of the city of Sabzevaran �Jiroft�,located adjacent to the Sabzevaran fault �Figure 8�, was approximately 60,000 in 1996�with the township population of 208,000�. The archaeological sites of Sabzevaran�Jiroft, Shahr-e-Daqyanus, Konar Sandal; with cultural layers since the third millenniumB.C.� should to be studied in detail for possible archaeoseismological evidence and ear-lier reactivation of the Sabzevaran fault.

On 2 January 1934, an earthquake of Ms 5.6 took place along the Jupar reverse faultin the Barez Mountain-thrust belt between the Gowk/Bam strike-slip fault systems �inthe northeast� and the Sabzevaran strike-slip fault in the southwest �Figure 8�. Almost 14months after the Bam urban earthquake, on 22 February 2005 an earthquake of Mw 6.6


destroyed several villages in the Kuh Banan Mountains east of Zarand, some 240 kmNNW of Bam, along the Darbidkhun cross-thrust fault �Figure 3; GSI 2005�. Almostfour months prior to this event, on 13 October 2004 �08:21 local time/11:51 GMT; Ml4.1� an earthquake rocked the area east of Zarand �Iranian Newspapers�.

If this temporal clustering in time, the observation of adjacent fault loading and thesouthward progression from the Kuh Banan, to the Gowk, and later to the Bam faultsystems, together with additional observations discussed above and below, are credible�despite the absence of 1� strong pattern like the North Anatolian fault �Barka 1996;Barka et al. 2002�, and 2� Coulomb failure function analysis�, it is plausible that amedium- to short-term warning as well as protective measures could have been imple-mented for the urban and rural areas of the region. A southward progression of seismicactivity from the 10 June 1939 earthquake �mb 5.5, Io VII+�, to the 17 June 1974, �mb4.8� and 26 September 1977 �VI� earthquakes was documented prior to the 16 Septem-ber 1978 �Mw 7.4� Tabas-e-Golshan earthquake, which completely destroyed that city�Berberian, 1979a�.

RIGHT-LATERAL SHEAR TRANSFER ACROSS THE EASTERN AND THEWESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIGID LUT BLOCK; A POSSIBLE

FAULT INTERACTION

Apparently, the right-lateral shear along the eastern margin of the Lut block at lati-tude 29.00°N during the 4 August 2003 �Mw 5.6� and the 21 August 2003 �Mw 5.9�earthquakes along the Kahurak fault �Figure 1� was directly transmitted to the westernmargin of the Lut block at the same latitude when the 26 December 2003 �Mw 6.6� Bamurban earthquake occurred along the Bam fault system within a four-month interval�Figure 8�. Although this may be a coincidence, the 2003 Bam urban earthquake tookplace in an area where the distance between the eastern and western margins of the Lutblock is shorter in the south ��120 km� at latitude of 29.00°N �Figure 1� than thenorthern latitudes �i.e., �220 km at 30.00°N, or �260 km at 31.00°N� where such acorrelation was not observed before or after the 1981 Golbaf/Sirch �7.1�, the 1989 Gol-baf �5.8�, or the 1998 Fandoqa �6.6� earthquakes along the western margin of the Lutblock; and the 1994 Sefidabeh �6.2� earthquake �at latitude 31.00°N� along the easternmargin of the Lut Block �Figure 1�. The geometrical interaction between groups of ac-tive faults is critical for characterizing seismic sources of large earthquakes. These typesof data, together with other observations discussed earlier, might lead to an early warn-ing system. Obviously, static Coulomb failure stress change calculations will help in theunderstanding of earthquakes triggered due to changes in static stress, or through dy-namic stress changes caused by passing seismic waves.

FORESEEABILITY

At least “three local foreshocks” were felt in Bam 14.5 hours, 7.5 hours, and 53 min-utes before the disaster of 26 December 2003 �the last foreshock was recorded on theBam accelerogram with St-Pt=1.5 seconds; marked by a star in Figure 7�. While localminor seismicity alone is not a reliable precursor, given the seismotectonic characteris-tics of Bam �summarized below�, a pattern of minor local events was alarming. Despite

S86 M. BERBERIAN

the lack of local seismographic network data, and 250 years of recorded seismic history,the following pattern may show that an earthquake of this magnitude �considering thelength of the fault segment� was foreseeable:

• Active fault and fold features in the vicinity of Bam city and the town of Bara-vat �documented since at least 1976�.

• Absence of any destructive earthquake since 1751 �documented since at least1979�;

• Numerous ruined regional archeological sites with ninth to eighteenth centurypotsherds �documented since at least 1967; however, the cause of destructionhas not been investigated�.

• Numerous phases �at least 10� of restorations and reconstruction in the medi-eval circumvallated inner city of Bam �with unspecified cause or reason�,which may or may not be tied to historical earthquakes �Table 3�.

• The southward progressing trend of temporally clustered large earthquakes oncognate strike-slip fault systems further north �1984 through 2001�.

• Possibility of a right-lateral shear transfer and fault interaction across the Lutrigid block after the 4 August 2003 �Mw 5.6� and the 21 August 2003 �Mw 5.9�earthquakes.

• Occurrence of the three local foreshocks hours and a day before the main-shock �25 and 26 December 2003�.

RIGHT-LATERAL STRIKE-SLIP, CROSS-THRUST, AND HIDDENEARTHQUAKE RISK IN THE PROVINCIAL CAPITAL CITY OF KERMAN

The southern end of the north-south Gowk fault �Figure 3� and the northern end ofthe Sabzevaran fault �Figure 7� are separated by the Barez Mountains �with severalNW-SE trending parallel thrust-mountain ranges reaching an elevation of +4420 m; Fig-ure 7�. Hence the strike-slip deformation along these two fault systems was absorbed byactive shortening along the Barez-thrust belt with reverse mechanism earthquakes �suchas the 2 January 1934 Ms 5.6 event, on a growing young fold-thrust elongated hill; Fig-ure 7�. Similarly, the southern end of the Kuh Banan fault �Figure 3� and the northernend of the Gowk fault �in the area north and east of Kerman; Figure 5� are separated bythe elevated ��+3,000 m� WNW-ESE cross fold-thrust mountain belt above the Hor-moz Salt decollement horizon �Figure 3�. Here, the strike-slip deformation along theKuh Banan and the Gowk faults were absorbed by active shortening along the cross-thrust-fold belt. Hence, the provincial capital city of Kerman is at high risk for destruc-tive earthquakes resulting from the longitudinal strike-slip Kuh Banan fault, cross-thrusts, and hidden earthquakes �as with the Zagros where the earthquakes originate be-low the Hormoz Salt decollement horizon; Figure 3�.

The motion across major strike-slip faults, where there is a component of conver-gence, is commonly partitioned, with the convergence accommodated on thrust struc-tures adjacent to the strike-slip faults �e.g., the Gobi-Altai fault system; Bayasgalan etal., 1999; the Altyn Tagh fault, Mongolia; Bendick et al., 2000�. As with the Superstition


Hills, California, earthquake in November 1987 �Hudnut et al., 1989; Sharp et al., 1989�,cross-fault movement in the Kerman area may control both the timing and extent of amajor earthquake along the Kuh Banan fault towards the provincial capital city of Ker-man �Figure 3�.

LOW LONG-TERM SLIP RATES AND HIGH POST-1900 STRAIN RELEASEALONG THE WESTERN LUT BLOCK

The Nayband �200 km long�, the Sabzevaran �260 km�, and the Bam ��110 km�active fault systems with straight trends and capable of producing large-magnitudeearthquakes have not had recorded large historical earthquakes, and the post-1900 in-strumental earthquakes do not show seismic activity along them �Berberian and Yeats,1999, 2001�. To the north of the Nayband fault, where it intersects a set of NW-SE-striking fold-fault belts �Figure 1�, the 1978 Tabas-e-Golshan �Mw 7.4� earthquake tookplace �Berberian 1979a�. To the south where the Nayband fault intersects another set ofNW-SE-striking fold-thrust belts, the Gowk fault showed increased seismicity during thetwentieth century �Berberian et al. 2001; Figure 5�.

Geomorphologic study of the Gowk fault shows a total of cumulative right-lateralstrike-slip of �12 km, suggesting a slip-rate of only �2.5 mm/yr if the faulting initi-ated at 5 Ma �Walker and Jackson 2002, 2004�. The slip-rate along the Nayband fault,where �2 Ma basalts are cut by the fault and displaced by �3.2 km, yields a slip-rateof �1.5 mm/yr �Walker and Jackson 2002�. A recent GPS experiment suggests a higherright-lateral slip-rate of 6 mm/yr to the south of the Gowk fault �Vernant et al. 2004�.These long-term low right-lateral slip rates along the western margin of the Lut Block ��1.5, �2.5, and �6 mm/yr� are small compared to the �15 mm/yr of right-lateralshear expected across eastern Iran �Walker and Jackson 2002, 2004; Vernant et al.2004�. It is plausible that at present the region is experiencing a temporal clustering oflarge magnitude earthquakes, just as the Dasht-e-Bayaz and the Abiz faults in northernand northeastern Lut Block �Figure 1; Berberian and Yeats 1999�. This may explain ahistorical slip deficit in the western Lut Block. A similar cluster is unfolding in the eastCalifornia Shear Zone, with high twentieth-century strain release and low long-term sliprates �Dolan et al. 1995; Yeats et al. 1997�. This clearly indicates that the recurrence in-tervals based on long-term displacement rates must be viewed cautiously. Furthermore,the absence of large-magnitude historical earthquakes may indicate that the historicrecord lies between a large-magnitude prehistoric earthquake and future clusters oflarge-magnitude earthquakes.

The two belts of active right-lateral strike-slip faults on the west and the east sides ofthe Lut Block die out in the north and bound with the left-lateral strike-slip faults of theDasht-e-Bayaz and Doruneh �Figure 1�, which accommodate right-lateral shear by ro-tating clockwise about a vertical axis �Jackson and McKenzie 1984; Jackson et al. 1995;Walker and Jackson 2004�. To the south, the Lut Block together with the N-S trendingthe east and the west Lut Block strike-slip fault systems merge with the E-W Makrandeformation zone, an active accretionary prism above the Makran subduction zone, re-activated during the 1945 �Mw 7.9, with tsunami� and the 1947 �6.9� earthquakes �Table

S88 M. BERBERIAN

1�. It seems as though Iran is behaving like India, driving northward into Eurasia, al-though it would be a mirror image, separated by the stable Afghan �Hirmand� block ofEurasia.

MISLEADING SHORT-TERM HISTORIC SEISMIC DATA

Inaccurate references to a “lack of seismicity in the Bam area for the last 2,500years” have been noticed in numerous professional reports, authorities’ speeches, inter-national organization reports, and almost all news media. It is misleading and dangerousto take limited historical seismic data and use these to model regional or local seismicitypatterns and hazard assessments without testing the completeness of the long-term seis-mic data and the uncertainties involved. Incomplete seismic data and spatially/temporally-clustered sequences of medium- to large-magnitude earthquakes cannot beused in routine seismic hazard evaluations. It is clear that large-magnitude earthquakesare less frequent when predicted from the long-term historical data rather than from theshort-term historical record, and/or twentieth-century instrumental data. Palaeoseismo-logical observations along the Wasatch fault in Utah revealed that large-magnitudeearthquakes occur in clusters with intra-cluster repeat times of a few thousand yearsseparated by inter-cluster periods of tens of thousands of years �Friedrich et al. 2003�.Furthermore, worldwide seismic data clearly show that large-magnitude earthquakesmay cluster in time and be spatially distributed within a particular fault system, and in-dividual faults may show highly irregular recurrence intervals �Kagan and Jackson 1991;Xu and Deng 1996; Kenner and Simons 2005�, as is the case for the fault systems re-viewed in this report.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

The 26 December 2003 Mw 6.6 earthquake, which demolished the city of Bam, wascaused by the sudden reactivation of a hidden seismic fault of 23 km �surface rupture� to30 km �aftershock zone� located under the city, causing a death toll of 26,500 to 43,200.The total devastation of the city by this medium-magnitude earthquake was due prima-rily to the poor quality of construction and poor enforcement of local building codes. Aswith previous earthquakes in Iran, the economic effects of this earthquake will be borneprimarily by the impoverished surviving population.

Critical lessons can be learned from studying the Bam medium-magnitude urbanearthquake in order to protect the public from the effects of strong ground shaking andfailures caused by earthquakes in urban areas. The earthquake is of great significance forgeoscientists, earthquake engineers, city building officials, and building code writers, aswell as government officials, particularly in light of the strong ground motion generatedby the reactivation of a seismic fault hidden under the city, and the performance of theground and structures exposed to the shaking. The earthquake clearly showed that it doesnot necessarily require a large-magnitude earthquake to cause complete devastation andlarge-scale human suffering in a city with weak buildings unprepared to withstandstrong ground shaking.

There was no mystery as to how a devastating earthquake with extensive damage andloss of life could happen in the city of Bam. Prior to the 2003 Bam urban earthquake,


there was obvious tectonic and seismological evidence of potential seismic activity ofthe region. The Ravar, Salmas, Quetta, Ashkabad, Agadir, Tangshan, Tabas-e-Golshan,Spidag, Rudbar-Tarom, and Bam urban earthquakes �Table 4� showed what can happento cities that experience strong ground shaking when society is not prepared. All the cit-ies in Iran have weak buildings that could collapse if subjected to strong ground shaking�Figure 1�—particularly cities such as Tehran �Figures 9 and 10� that are located onfaults with many buildings of low seismic resistance. We should therefore be exceed-ingly careful in earthquake-fault hazard assessment of urban areas, critical structures,and infrastructure, where failure would have a disastrous public impact. An in-depthmultidisciplinary observation and examination of the impacts of the Bam earthquake arerequired to ensure that the profession is not ignoring or compromising the realistic quan-tification of earthquake-fault hazard analysis, and the results should be transferable toother urban areas.

Since the 1 September 1962 Mw 7.0 Bo’in Zahra earthquake in Iran, there have beenabout eight earthquakes of Mw �7.0, and 37 earthquakes of Mw 6.0-6.9, which causedmore than 139,200 fatalities �average 3317/yr� and a minimum of US$10.6 billion�original values� uninsured economic losses �US$252 million/yr�. Existing scattered datasuggest that well over 1.8 million survivors �42,857/yr� have been affected �requiringimmediate basic survival needs� during these deadly earthquakes, which raised an outcryfrom earthquake scientists and engineers about the needlessly high number of fatalitiesand the lack of public safety afforded to public facilities, especially schools and hospi-tals. Despite the Iranian Codes for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings implementedin 1969 and 1988, the number of casualties experienced in earthquakes has been increas-ing. During the last 15 years �1900 through 2005�, approximately 80,000 lives were lostin just three earthquakes �Figure 2, Table 1�.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS4

As with all my previous works, the research for this article was not supported by anygrant or organization. I am grateful to Bob Yeats, James Jackson, and the three EERIreviewers for review of the first draft, though I alone am responsible for any remainingerrors or misconceptions. James Jackson kindly provided me with his revised source pa-rameters for the Bam earthquake, which were used in Figures 7 and 8. I thank ChristineJohnson for drafting the figures. Carol Arensman kindly reviewed the manuscript. Oneof the forces causing me to continue my 34-year-long single-handed efforts in this fieldis to get the authorities in Iran, and other developing countries, to take the earthquakehazard seriously, to create a culture of prevention, and to develop solutions to disastersduring the present generation, and not hand the problem over to our children. I hope thatthe memory of the people who died in the Bam urban earthquake will inspire renewedefforts to mitigate impacts from future earthquakes.

4 Publication of this special issue on the Bam, Iran, earthquake was supported by the Learning from EarthquakesProgram of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, with funding from the National Science Foundationunder grant CMS-0131895. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed herein are theauthors’ and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation, the Earthquake Engineer-
ing Research Institute, or the authors’ organizations.

S90 M. BERBERIAN

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�Received 29 November 2004; accepted 14 February 2005�

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