The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance www.1868alliance.org Oct. 21, 1868 Hayward Earthquake ( “ The...

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Transcript of The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance www.1868alliance.org Oct. 21, 1868 Hayward Earthquake ( “ The...

  • The 1868 Hayward EarthquakeAlliancewww.1868alliance.orgOct. 21, 1868 Hayward Earthquake (The Great SF Earthquake)

  • M7 Oct. 21, 1868 Hayward earthquake30 fatalities, 5 in San Francisco (12th most lethal US earthquake)$350,000 (in 1868 dollars) in damage in San Francisco aloneExtensive damage in San Leandro, Hayward, and Fremont (total population less than 2000)Bay Area population was 260,000 (it is now 27 times larger)

  • Lienkaemper and Williams, BSSA, in press, 2007Why commemorate its 140th anniversary on October 21, 2008??Last 5 quakes on the Hayward Fault have been 140 years apart on average

  • Bancroft LibraryReinstein Clothing Factory, 314 California St., San FranciscoSettlement

  • Updating the 1996 EERI Hayward Fault Scenario

    I expect significant intraregional movement of people and therefore economic activity as a result of the disaster.

    We can expect ghost-towns throughout the East Bay, and we cannot automatically expect that HUD financing will be available to repair them.

  • Updating the 1996 EERI Hayward Fault Scenario

    Over 60% of EBMUD customers will be out of service immediatelyOver 75% of EBMUD customers will be out of service after 3 daysOver 40% of EBMUD customers will be out of service after 9 daysOver 15% of EBMUD customers will be out of service after 60 days3000 to 5000 EBMUD pipe breaks, mainly caused by liquefaction

    If PG&E power is lost, EBMUDs ability to replenish reservoirs is lost.

  • Updating the 1996 EERI Hayward Fault Scenario

    If the earthquake occurs on a workday, at least 800,000 commuters out of the 3,000,000 total commuters will have to be transported back to where they want to be.

    125,000 will need shelter due to damage to their residences (not just in the East Bay).

  • Updating the 1996 EERI Hayward Fault Scenario

    In Alameda County, 33% of the hospital capacity will have to be evacuated, 33% will be in limited service, and 33% will be fully operational.

    In Contra Costa County, about 50% will be fully operational, 33% in limited service, and a small number evacuated.

    There might be 20,000 injuries requiring hospitalization and a total of only 10,000 beds available.

  • www.1868alliance.org

  • www.1868alliance.org

  • 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance activitiesCommemoration EventsPublic Service AnnouncementsSchool earthquake drillsHayward Fault exhibitTeacher TutorialsTV SpecialsHayward Fault Initiative (with EERI)Scientific Workshops

    www.1868alliance.org

  • earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/1868/

  • Examples of USGS Product Releases1868 ShakeMap Animations of a Hayward Fault earthquake showing ground motions ala 1906 movies1868 Hayward Earthquake Virtual TourHayward Fault in 3DHayward Fault Lidar Data

  • Tentative Alliance Schedule Oct. 2007 - Kickoff Press Conference Dec. 2007 - AGU special session on the 1868 quakeSpring 2008 - Reopen Hayward Fault exhibit??Spring/Fall 2008 - USGS Product ReleasesSummer/Fall 2008 - Speaker SeriesOct. 21, 2008 - Commemoration EventOct. 2008 - USGS/CGS Scientific Workshop

  • The 1868 Hayward EarthquakeAlliancewww.1868alliance.orgJoin Us!