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Background Brief

Cambodia and Malaysia:Comparing Electoral Outcomes

Carlyle A. Thayer

August 21, 2013

[client name deleted]

- What in your assessment are the most important similarities between the outcomeof the elections in Malaysia and Cambodia?

ANSWER: The most striking similarity is that the long ruling parties in both countries

suffered their worst set back in terms of popular vote. Both lost their two-thirds

majority and thus their ability to amend the Constitution. The opposition in both

countries, the Pakatan Rakyat in Malaysia and the Cambodia National Rescue Part

(CNRP) , were multiparty coalitions; three parties in the case of Malaysia and two

parties in the case of Cambodia. A further parallel might be the charismatic or

populist character of the two opposition leaders, Anwar Ibrahim and Sam Rainsy.

Finally, the opposition in both countries raised serious charges of electoral fraud.

- What in your assessment are the most important differences between the

electorates, and the main political parties (or coalitions) in the two countries?

ANSWER: Cambodia is overwhelmingly Khmer in ethnic composition. Malaysia is

divided into three major ethnic groups, Malays (50.4%), Chinese (23/7%) and Indians

(7.1%).1

Up until recent years national politics in Malaysia has always been

communal. In the past a majority of Malays supported the United Malays National

Organisation (UMNO) while a minority supported Parti Islam se-Malaysia (or Pan-

Malaysian Islamic Party or PAS), a Muslim party. In the past two national elections

the Malay urban electorate has been split. Some Malays who traditionally supported

UMNO have defected and joined Anwar Ibrahims Peoples Justice Party and joinedin coalition with the more fundamentally aligned Malay Muslims in PAS and ethnic

Chinese in the Democratic Acton Party (DAP). In the last two Malaysian general

elections large sections of the Chinese community shifted their support to the

Pakatan Rakyat, and the DAP in particular because of the pro-Malay policies of the

government and some racial baiting by Malay politicians.

The only ethnic issue of significance in Cambodia is the political status of the

Vietnamese community. Also, urban Khmers have thrown their support behind the

CNRP in a manner paralleling urban Malays and Chinese shifting to the opposition

coalition.

1Indigenous people total 11% and others 7.8%.

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The ruling party, the Barisan Nasional (National Front) is an amalgam of thirteen

political parties, at its core are three parties that have traditionally represented each

of the major ethnic groups: the United Malays National Organisation, the Malaysian

Chinese Association (MCA) and Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC). Initially Cambodia

flirted with a coalition government but eventually evolved into a one party system

under the Cambodian Peoples Party. The BN has changed its party leader several

times since it has been in office. In contrast, Hun Sen has ruled supreme in

Cambodia.

The communal nature of Malaysian politics has always made the core three-party

alliance UMNO- MCA and MIC especially sensitive to ethnic outbidding. That is,

the opposition Chinese and Muslim parties attempt to outbid the government in

offering their communal constituency special treatment or entitlements. In

Cambodia the opposition leader Sam Rainsy has resorted on occasion to race baiting

against the ethnic Vietnamese community.

- Does either the CNRP in Cambodia or BN [sic] in Malaysia have enough leveragegoing into a new mandate to push the ruling party to reform?

ANSWER: The BN is the ruling party in Malaysia. It is reactive to popular pressure,

such as suspending the internal security act. Even though the allocation of seats is

skewed in favour of the countryside and thus pro-government Malays, and the

government has the advantages of incumbency, the conduct of the elections is

basically free and fair under the law. The Malaysian judiciary is relatively professional

and independent. The government coalition will participate in the cut and thrust of

parliamentary debate. It is able to adjust its policies in order to retain popular

support. For example, the current government must work on adopting policies to

lure back Chinese voters.

The opposition in Malaysia has long experience being in a minority and conducting

itself as the loyal opposition in a parliamentary democracy. This is not the case with

Cambodia. Only time will tell if the coalition CNRP can maintain unity as it faces a day

by day parliamentary battle with the ruling Cambodian Peoples Party.

- Which opposition movement has a higher change of long-term success, and victory

in the next election?

ANSWER: One difference between Malaysia and Cambodia that must be mentioned

is that opposition parties have won and governed in Malaysias states. This is not the

case in Cambodia. In other words, the PAS is able to win government in the

conservative Malay northern provinces where its base is located. The PAS cannot

aspire on its own to win national government. Chinese opposition parties have also

won state government. Controlling state government is a kind of safety valve for

Malaysias system of government. In the cases of Malaysia and Cambodia both

opposition coalitions face formidable problems in remaining unified while in

opposition over the next five years. The current opposition in Malaysia is likely to

fracture as Anwar Ibrahim fades from the political scene. The case of Cambodia is

perhaps more promising. Electoral trends since 1993 have witnesed a shift from

royalists to secularists and to favour youth. Cambodias two political opposition

leaders, Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha, are likely to retain their popular standing withthe electorate. My bottom line is that the opposition in Cambodia has a marginally

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better chance of gaining power than the opposition in Malaysia. If ten days are a

long time in politics, five years will be an eternity.

- How do you assess the ruling parties in each country will respond to what may have

been a loss, and was certainly a call for change from voters in each country?

ANSWER: UMNO has experienced ups and downs in terms of the percentage of voteit has received in national elections since 1974. It therefore has the experience of

being introspective and self-critical. In other words, UMNO has the capacity to re-

invent itself by changing its leader during his term in office or even conducting a

major cabinet reshuffle. UMNO today does not come under the leadership of a

political strongman like Hun Sen in Cambodia. Its branches are capable of generating

proposals for change and at national level UMNO is capable of altering its policies to

attract popular support.

There are signs that elements within the CPP are willing to engage ina post-mortem

on their set back in the recent elections. But the CPP appears less likely to jettison

Hun Sen. His basis of power is different than Najibs in Malaysia. Hun Sen dominates

the CPP, Najib Tun Razak is responsible to UMNO.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia and Malaysia: Comparing Electoral

Outcomes ,Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 21, 2013. All background

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues andother research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially

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