Thank You! - International Council of Shopping Centers€¦ · Thank You! INDUSTRY UPDATE . MICHAEL...
Transcript of Thank You! - International Council of Shopping Centers€¦ · Thank You! INDUSTRY UPDATE . MICHAEL...
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Thank You!
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INDUSTRY UPDATE
MICHAEL P. KERCHEVAL
President & Chief Executive Officer
International Council of Shopping Centers
New York, NY
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Out with the Old…
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In with the New
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3 Things to Consider…
i. Infill Opportunities
ii. Multi-Use Development
iii. The Shopping Center’s Role
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Creating the “Third Place”
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Unemployment Rate
6
7
8
9
10
Jan. 2011 Aug. 2011 Jan. 2012 Aug. 2012 Jan. 2013 Aug. 2013
Source: BLS
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Retail Sales Growth 2006-2013 (Excluding Autos)
6.2%
4.0%
2.3%
-5.8%
4.6%
7.3%
4.6% 4.3%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013YTD
Source: US Census Bureau
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Mall Productivity Growth
6.9%
6.1%
10.7%
6.0%
4.6%
0.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Source: ICSC
Mall Productivity Growth
10.7%12%
Mall Productivity GrowthMall Productivity GrowthMall Productivity GrowthMall Productivity GrowthMall Productivity Growth% Change Year/Year Jan-July 2013
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New Look … Old Malls
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Apparel and Accessories % of Mall Specialty GLA
47.9%
57.3%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: ICSC
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Home Goods % of Mall Specialty GLA
9.1%
6.3%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: ICSC
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More Than Just a Place to Shop
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Growth of Shopping Center Inventory (% Change to Total Number of Centers)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Source: CoStar
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Shopping Center GLA Per Capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
U.S. Canada U.K. Singapore
Source: ICSC
Squ
are
Feet
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Retail Space Impacts
Metros Areas With Most Closed Space
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Filling the Shopping Center of the Future
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Marketplace Fairness Matters
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M-Commerce
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Technology as Tools For Success
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Geofencing
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The “Class of 2010”
Female
0 1 2 3 4
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Male
01234
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
2010
2000
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Demographic Opportunities Screens for Ideal:
1. Strong growth in numbers
2. Strong growth in spending potential
3. Strong spend at shopping centers
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Hispanic Market Opportunities
Screens Hispanic Total Non-
Hispanic
Population Growth 2007-2011 11.4% 3.1% 2.7%
Share of Total Population: 2011 2020
16.3% 19.1%
100.0% 100.0%
83.7% 80.9%
Income Growth 2007-2011 3.9% 1.7% 1.2%
Spending at Shopping Malls: Annual Amount
As % Of Total Spending
$4,203
9.9%
$4,485
8.9%
$4,538
8.8%
Source: ICSC, Retail Property Insights, Vol. 20, No. 2, 2013
Hispanic
11.4%
20112020
16.3%19.1%
100.0%100.0%
3.9%
Annual AmountAs % Of Total Spending
$4,2039.9%
$4,485
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Look to the Future…
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Thank You!
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MARK MYERS
ICSC Trustee
Executive Vice President
Head of Commercial Real Estate
Wells Fargo Bank
San Francisco, CA
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Thank You!