Thailand Floods: An Event Update - Reinsurance Thought Leadership

Thailand Floods: An Event Update

October 2011

Contents

3 Executive Summary

4 Meteorological Recap

7 Damage Impacts

11 Elsewhere in Southeast Asia

12 Appendices

15 Conclusion

16 Contact Information

16 About Impact Forecasting

16 About Aon Benfield

3

Aon Benfield | Impact Forecasting

The ongoing floods in Thailand that began in late-July have caused extreme human suffering

and economic damage. Thailand has declared a third of its provinces to be disaster zones as the

country battles rising flood waters. The flooding situation is likely to continue for a few more

weeks and has been bearing down on Bangkok over the past few days. The Thai capital sits on

the bottom of a flood plain which has an average elevation of less than 2m above sea level.

As Thailand plays an important role in global commerce, industry and agriculture, the impact from the

floods will be felt in food stores, electronic stores and auto showrooms around the globe. Thailand has

long served as the world’s manufacturing hub for many products, from electronics to auto assembly

and textiles. It is also the largest producer of rice in the world. The current floods are the worst Thailand

has seen in the last 50 years and as such, will cost hundreds of millions in lost revenue for companies

dependent on factories and supplies located in Thailand. At the time of writing the report, about half

a million Thais are living in temporary shelters. Railways and major highways have also been affected.

The event is likely to be the costliest natural disaster in Southeast Asia. While the overall insured

loss has yet to be realized due to the on-going nature of the situation, there is a potential for

substantial losses to insurers from different sectors like property, automotive and agriculture.

The following report provides details on the event and is divided into several sections:

• Meteorological Recap

• Damage Impacts

• Elsewhere in Southeast Asia

Executive Summary

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Meteorological Recap

The floods in Thailand were the result of persistent monsoonal rains combining with the remnants of a series of tropical cyclones beginning in late-July and lasting through the month of October. The heaviest rains were recorded across northern and central sections of Thailand, before swollen rivers and floodwaters began to shift southward towards the greater Bangkok metropolitan area. Meteorologists in Thailand suggest that the floods could persist for several more weeks before beginning to recede. The following sections will help describe what exactly a monsoon is, what a normal meteorological year is expected in Thailand and also provide insight as to what made the most recent floods so substantial.

What is a monsoon?A monsoon is described as a shift in wind direction that causes excessive rainfall in many parts of the world including Asia, North America, South America and Africa. Shifts in global wind patterns are generally considered to be the primary mechanism behind the development of a monsoon. During non-monsoonal months, winds normally blow from land to ocean, which makes the air dry. During certain months of the year, the wind pattern shifts and begins to blow from the ocean to land, making the air moist. This moist ocean air is what causes monsoonal rains over many countries.

What is considered a normal meteorological year in Thailand?According to the Thai Meteorological Department, the country’s climate endures three separate seasons: Rainy, Winter and Summer.

Rainy SeasonThe Rainy Season (also known as the Southwest Monsoon Season) typically occurs between mid- May and mid-October. During this time, the Southwest Monsoon pattern prevails over central and northern sections of the country – spawning abundant amounts of rainfall – with the peak levels of precipitation normally seen in August and September. The monsoon is supported by a stream of very warm, moist air approaching Thailand from the Indian Ocean. In addition to the southwest flow off of the Indian Ocean, an active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the arrival of tropical cyclones also provide enhanced moisture. (The ITCZ is typically noted on satellite imagery as a band of clouds near the equator that seasonally adjusts its location in a north/south direction based on the position of the sun). During the month of May, the ITCZ will first arrive in southern Thailand before shifting northward into central and northern Thailand during August. As the season begins to wind down, the ITCZ again sinks southward prior to the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon.

Figure 1: Southwest Monsoon

Source: PBS.org

It should be noted that along the West Coast of Thailand’s southern region, tremendous rainfall occurs on the windward side of its series of mountainous terrain.

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Winter SeasonThe Winter Season (also known as the Northeast Monsoon Season) typically occurs between mid- October and mid-February. During this time, the Northeast Monsoon pattern brings cool and dry air across northern and northeastern sections of the country due to the positioning of a strong ridge of high pressure over China’s mainland. While this pattern brings dry and cool to the north, it also signals the start of a mild and rainy season for southern sections of the country - particularly along the east coast.

Figure 2: Northeast Monsoon

Source: PBS.org

Summer SeasonThe Summer Season (also known as the Pre-Monsoon Season) typically occurs between mid-February and mid-May. This time is marked as a transitional period from the Northeast Monsoon to the Southwest Monsoon. Climatology suggests that the weather will become warmer, with April normally the hottest month in Thailand.

Seasonal Rainfall AveragesThe table below shows the 30-year average (1971-2000) of rainfall totals for each region, broken down by season. Please note that the South region is split between East Coast and West Coast data, signifying the significant difference of rainfall seen on the windward and lee sides of the mountainous terrain.

This data is provided and was compiled by the Thai Meteorological Department. All totals are listed in millimeters.

Figure 3: Average rainfall for the period 1971-2000

Region Winter Season Summer Season Rainy Season Annual # of Rainy Days

North 105.5 182.5 952.1 123

Northeast 71.9 214.2 1,085.8 117

Central 124.4 187.1 903.3 113

East 187.9 250.9 1,417.6 131

South

East Coast 759.3 249.6 707.3 148

West Coast 445.9 383.7 1,895.7 176

Source: Thai Meteorological Department

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Why were the July-October Floods so severe?The floods, which first became prevalent in northern sections of the country, were spawned by the start of the typical monsoon season. The arrival of the remnants of Tropical Storm Nock-ten in late-July accelerated the severity of the rainfall (and floods) across the north, northeast and central portions of Thailand. As the calendar turned to August and September, a vigorous and on-going monsoon season brought continued elevated rainfall totals to central and northern sections as flash floods, river flooding and landslides became more prevalent. An active tropical season in the Northwest Pacific Basin also added to the heightened floods and rainfall totals, with the remnants of no fewer than five systems reaching Thailand.

As the rains continued, and excess rainwater drained into the Chao Phraya River and its tributaries (including the Chi and Tha Chin rivers), the river swelled and burst its banks while flowing southward. The floods eventually covered an area from Chiang Mai Province in the north to Ayutthaya Province in the central plains (just north of Bangkok). It should be noted that floods from a bloated Mekong River in extreme northeastern Thailand also enhanced the swelling of the Chao Phraya and its tributaries. In early and mid-October, the rain and floods were again reinforced by the arrival of the remnants of Typhoon Nalgae.

The floods between July and October follow another flood event that occurred in southern Thailand during March and April. Those floods, spawned by excessive rainfall, left at least 61 people dead, destroyed over 600,000 homes and caused at least THB27.2 billion (USD880 million) in economic damages.

2011 Rainfall TotalsThe table below shows annual rainfall totals for 2011(thru September) for Thailand, broken down by region and also signifying the amount above normal. Please note that the South region is split between East Coast and West Coast data, signifying the significant difference of rainfall seen on the windward and lee sides of the mountainous terrain.

This data is provided and was compiled by the Thai Meteorological Department. All totals are listed in millimeters, and the ‘Percent from Normal’ column represents the actual rainfall amount as registered between January 1 and September 30 and its departure from the overall annual average rainfall total.

Figure 4: Total rainfall for the period Jan. - Sept. 2011

Region Actual Rainfall Normal Rainfall % from Normal

North 1,541.4 1,052.5 46%

Northeast 1,502.5 1,246.4 21%

Central 1,331.6 1,019.7 31%

East 1,804.5 1,588.8 14%

South

East Coast 1,486.0 851.2 75%

West Coast 2,394.8 2,115.0 13%

Source: Thai Meteorological Department

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The impacts felt from the flooding were widespread across the vast majority of Thailand. In total, more than 9.4 million people were affected by the floods in at least 64 of the country’s 77 provinces. Factories were swamped and more than 10% of the nation’s rice farms have been destroyed. The following sections will take a closer look at some of the damage and impacts felt.

FatalitiesAs per the latest reports, the Thai government reported that the fatalities from the catastrophic flooding is 373.

Personal Property EffectsReports from the government suggested that upwards of 2.8 million homes sustained various levels of flood inundation.

Damage Impacts

Commercial EffectsThe hardest-hit industries were to electrical appliances and equipment, medical equipment, automobiles and food and beverage manufacturers. In terms of productivity, reports suggested that more than 14,800 industrial and manufacturing plants were damaged by floods in 20 separate provinces. Ayutthaya Province was one of the most heavily impacted areas, where at least 900 out of 2,150 factories were damaged. In Ayutthaya City, all five industrial estates (Rojana, Saha Rattana Nakorn, Hi-Tech, Bang Pa-in and Factoryland) were inundated. At the Rojana Industrial Park, dozens of factories (including those from Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co., Mazda Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Corp., Mitsubishi Corp., Sony Corp., Nikon Corp., Sanyo Semiconductor and Matsushita) were forced to close after floodwaters entered the perimeter.

Figure 5: Thai army helicopter drops food to people isolated by floods in the province of Ayutthaya near Bangkok on October 25, 2011.

Source: Alertnet

In terms of damages sustained throughout Rojana, the Federation of Thai Industries estimated damages between THB50 to 60 billion (USD1.6 to 1.9 billion). At the nearby Saha Rattana Nakorn Industrial Park, additional damages and losses were estimated at THB25 to 30 billion (USD808 to 970 million). Multiple personal electronic manufacturers (including Toshiba Corp., Hitachi Ltd, Canon, Western Digital, Hutchinson Technology, Microsemi Corp., and ON Semiconductor) were also forced to shut down production. Western Digital reported that 60 percent of its global computer hard drive production comes from Thailand. Combined economic losses at the five industrial parks alone were listed in excess of THB100 billion (USD3.3 billion).

Also in Ayutthaya, the Bank of Thailand reported that at least 72 bank branches were forced to temporarily close. Some of the closures (and numbers) included the Bangkok Bank (17), Krung Thai Bank (11), Siam Commercial Bank (11), Thanachart Bank (9), Kasikornbank (7), Thai Military Bank (5), Bank of Ayudhya (5), CIMB Thai Bank (3), UOB Bank (2), Tisco Bank (1) and Kiatnakin Bank (1).

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Nationwide, at least 295 bank branches were forced to close. In the city of Ayutthaya, the centuries-old Chaiwattanaram temple was submerged by waters up to 5.49 meters (18 feet) in some locations. Several other World Heritage Sites were also listed as vulnerable to permanent flood damage.

It should be noted that Ayutthaya Province accounts for 7 percent of Thailand’s economy and generates at least 15 percent of the country’s total manufacturing output. This region was just beginning to recover following the shutdown of factories after the deadly earthquake and tsunami event that struck Japan in March 2011. The Japan event led to a global chain reaction of industrial factory and manufacturing shutdowns.

Figure 6: Flooding in Nonthaburi Province

Source: Alertnet

Automotive IndustryAccording to Frost and Sullivan, the automotive sector which has an annual production capacity of about 2 million units in 2010, is one of the hardest hit industries. The recent floods in Thailand have had a major effect on local automotive production and supply chain, causing a large number of disturbances. The floods are also likely to have a short-term effect on the regional and global supply of automotive parts and vehicle exports. Automotive assembly plants and parts maker factories located mainly in and around Ayutthaya and Pathumthani provinces have been affected by the floods. The Honda assembly plant is located at the Rojana Industrial park in Ayutthaya and is one of the most affected, with water inundation reported within the assembly plant. Hundreds of Honda cars were damaged when dikes failed at the Rojana park, where the company produces as many 240,000 vehicles a year, according to spokespersons of Honda’s Thai unit. Toyota and Ford factories in Thailand have also been affected. According to the chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, nine separate Japanese motor companies were forced to halt production in the Rojana park and approximately 6,000 vehicles per day were being lost due to the shutdown. Experts suggest up to 100,000 vehicles may be lost due to the shutdown.

Figure 7: Estimated Production Loss

Spinning Their WheelsImpact of floods on different manufacturers and estimated production loss

Plant Location Province Severity of Impact Production Status Due To FloodsAverage Monthly Estimated Loss of Production (Units)

Toyota Chachoengsao Medium Halted - Supply chain disruption 30,000 - 35,000

Honda Ayutthaya High Halted - Assembly plant flooded 10,000-15,000

NissanSamut Prakam Medium

Normal production but likely to be affected due to supply chain disruption

10,000-12,000

Mitsubishi Chon Buri Medium Halted - Supply chain disruption 12,000-15,000

Auto Alliance Thailand (Ford-Mazda)

Rayong MediumFord PV production resumed but pick-

up production halted5,000-8,000

GM Rayong Low Normal production -

Isuzu Chachoengsao Medium Halted - Supply chain disruption 10,000-15,000

Total 80,000-100,000

Source: Frost and Sullivan

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Supply Chain DisruptionThe floods have had a severe effect on auto parts makers and as a consequence will likely lead to a disruption in the supply chain structure. The situation has had a cascading effect on automotive assembly and production in Thailand, with almost 10 percent of the all auto parts for local production come from flood-affected regions. Toyota, Auto Alliance Thailand, Mitsubishi Motors, Nissan are all dependent on auto parts makers in the flood affected region, with Ayutthaya and Pathumthani provinces having nearly 40 auto parts suppliers supplying to most assembly plants in Thailand. As per Moody’s Investors Service, production has been disrupted at more than 400 Japanese companies north of Bangkok, including automakers such as Toyota, Honda and Mitsubishi, and electronics firms like Sony, Canon and Toshiba. The floods have forced the closure of seven industrial estates in Ayutthaya, Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani provinces bordering Bangkok putting about 650,000 people temporarily out of work.

Effects on TourismTourism is a major source of income in Thailand and it has been one of the many impacted sectors from the Thai flood event. One of the main centers where relief efforts are concentrated is along the Chao Phraya River, whose banks are lined with luxury hotels. Travel warnings have been issued by many countries, which has led to many hotels in the region to be operating at lower occupancy rates as normally seen.

As has bee noted, Bangkok remains the economic hub of Thailand, which accounts for 41 percent of the country’s economy. Any serious disruption to commerce or tourism in Bangkok would cause impacts from the flooding to reach a scale even larger than what has been seen throughout the rest of the country.

Infrastructure EffectsThe agricultural and transportation infrastructures were both heavily impacted during the flood event. The following sections provide a detailed analysis.

Transportation InfrastructureOn 25th October, the advancing flood waters breached the barriers protecting Bangkok’s second largest airport, the Don Muang airport. This airport is primarily used for domestic flights and commercial flights had to be stalled. The prime minister has warned that the capital could be swamped by up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) of water if flood walls fail and the all of Bangkok, including the inner parts, could get flooded.

The flooding at the Don Muang airport is a blow to government efforts to prevent the Thai capital from being inundated. The Don Muang airport also houses the country’s flood relief headquarters and its flooding has dented the relief operations. It should be noted that the Thai Air Force also uses Don Muang as a base.

Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport, the country’s main international gateway, has yet to be affected by flooding and flights there were operating normally. The airport is surrounded by a large dyke and water pump system that was created to secure the facility for large flood events.

In addition to air travel, a high volume of roads and bridges have been submerged or washed away. In specific terms, the Department of Highways reported that 535 highways were covered by floodwaters, with 67 roads listed as destroyed in 16 northern provinces. The economic cost to highways alone was listed at THB5 billion (USD163 million).

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Agriculture InfrastructureMore than 1.92 million hectares (4.74 million acres) of land – including 1.35 million hectares (3.3 million acres) of rice fields – were damaged. This represented 12.5 percent of all cropland. In addition to the crops being submerged, the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives reported that more than 9.9 million head of livestock were at risk to be killed or displaced. Researchers at International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) has estimated that the damage will be somewhere between three million and five million tonnes of paddy rice. The Thai export price, a global benchmark, may climb 21 per cent to THB750 (USD25) a tonne by December, according to Mr. Sumeth Laomoraphorn, president of C.P. Intertrade, the country’s largest seller of packaged rice.

Economic and Insured Loss EstimatesEconomic losses nationwide have been preliminarily estimated by the government at more than THB200 billion (USD6.5 billion). These numbers have prompted Thailand’s Finance Minister to report that the country now expects a negative growth of 1.1 percent for the fourth quarter GDP. The full year GDP growth estimate has been cut from 3.7 percent to 2 percent. All of these figures may need to be significantly adjusted should the floods in Bangkok cause substantial impacts, as the city accounts for 41 percent of the country’s GDP. In addition to GDP effects, an initial forecasted increase for national exports in 2011 was also lowered to 18.5 percent, which represents a drop from the previously expected 23.3 to 24.8 percent increase. The combination of the floods (as well as the economic crisis in Europe) were cited as reasons for the decline.

In late-October, the Thai government reported that more than THB250 billion (USD8 billion) in loans were being awarded to help flood-affected manufacturers. Of the THB250 billion (USD8 billion), at least THB210 billion (USD6.8 billion) was going to small and medium businesses, THB15 billion (USD486 million) to manufacturers in eight separate industrial estates and THB25 billion (USD810 million) to independent businesses.

In terms of an estimated insured loss, the Office of Insurance Commission (OIC) reported that insurance claims from the floods are already in excess of THB 100 billion (USD 3.3 billion). Japan’s casualty insurers may face about USD 2.5 billion in net payouts to cover damages from Thailand’s floods, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

For comparison’s sake, it should be noted that insured losses in Thailand from the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami event totaled nearly THB20 billion (USD646 million), while the May 2010 civil unrest in Bangkok resulted in about the same value of claims.

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Major flooding during the summer and early fall months was not solely confined to Thailand, as many other Southeast Asian countries sustained substantial flooding as well.

CambodiaHeavy rains, which began in early September, led to substantial flooding across Cambodia for several weeks. The Cambodian government reported that flash floods and flooding along the Mekong River had led to the deaths of at least 250 people. More than 1.2 million people have been directly impacted in 19 separate cities and provinces across the country. At least 200,000 homes, schools and religious sanctuaries have been damaged or destroyed, in addition to more than 1,800 kilometers (1,118 miles) of roads. The agricultural infrastructure has seen at least 400,000 hectares (988,000 acres) of rice paddy fields submerged as well. This represents 12 percent of the national crop. Total economic losses were estimated at KHR660 billion (USD161 million).

VietnamThe combination of monsoon rains and multiple tropical cyclones led to major floods throughout much of Vietnam during September and October. The most significant effects were felt in the Mekong River Delta, where at least 55 people were killed. The Central Committee for Storm and Flood Control reported that more than 92,000 homes were destroyed and 99,000 hectares (245,000 acres) of rice and other crops were submerged. At least 1,455 kilometers (904 miles of dykes and 1,300 kilometers (808 miles) of roads were damaged as well. Total economic losses were estimated at VND1.2 trillion (USD57 million).

LaosLaos also sustained two months of extensive flooding as high water levels in the Mekong River Delta occurred in response to an active monsoon season and the arrival of several tropical cyclones. The floods, which were prevalent between June and October, left at least 34 people dead and upwards of 140,000 homes destroyed. More than 64,400 hectares (160,000 acres) of rice paddy fields (or 7.5 percent of the entire national crop) have been submerged. Total economic losses were estimated at LAK1.4 trillion (USD174 million).

MyanmarTropical Cyclone 02B came ashore in Bangladesh during late-October, though its remnants led to extensive flooding across Myanmar. A separate non-tropical area of low pressure also brought additional moisture and rainfall in the following days. At least 215 people were killed as flash floods and river flooding in central and southern sections of the country damaged or destroyed more than 8,000 homes. The transportation and agricultural infrastructures were also impacted. Total economic losses were listed at MMK11 million (USD1.7 million).

Elsewhere in Southeast Asia

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Appendices

Appendix 1: Map showing various flooded areas in Thailand (as at 26th October, 2011)

Source: Thaiflood.com

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Appendix 2: Flooding situation and estimated aggregate TSI in various industrial estates

The estimated aggregate TSI (Total Sums Insured) in various industrial estates and the flooding situation in respective sites is furnished in the table below. Please note that the information provided in the table is only an approximation based on our internal sources and is not representative of the actual TSI in the respective locations. It does not include TSI from any property risks located outside of industrial estates within each province.

Industrial Estate

Estimated approximate aggregate TSI

(in billion Baht)

Estimated approximate aggregate TSI

(in billion USD)

Province Major Risks in the industrial estateExtent of flooding

as at 28th October, 2011

Saharat Nakorn 10 0.3 Ayudhaya

Jones & Wining, VN Chemical Supply, ECCO etc

Flooded (2-3mt)

Rojana 150 4.9 Ayudhaya Nikon, Honda, TDK, Magnecomp etc. Flooded (2-3mt)

Hi-Tech 20 0.7 Ayudhaya G-Tekt, Mikuni etc. Flooded (2-3mt)

Bangpa-in 15 0.5 Ayudhaya

Teijin Group, Air-Con Parts Engg, Western Digital etc.

Flooded (2-3mt)

Navanakorn 30 1.0 Patumthani

Fujitsu, Panasonic, ROHM Integrated System etc.

Flooded (2-3mt)

Bangkra-di 40 1.3 Patumthani Toshiba, Asahi Intecc etc. Flooded (2-3mt)

Ladkrabang 50 1.6 Bangkok not available not flooded

Wangnoi (Factory Land)

25 0.8 Ayudhaya Fuji, Microwave Technology etc. Flooded (2-3mt)

Total 340 11.1

The Exchange rate use is 1THB - 0.03258 USD

Source: Oanda.com as per 28th Oct, 2011

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Appendix 3: Flooding in various industrial estates

Source: Aon Benfield

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Conclusion

As of this writing, the floods which began in late July were still causing fresh floods in and around Bangkok. Any estimates presented here are therefore likely to change.

Aon Benfield will release further updates on the event as and when the information becomes available.

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Sastry Dhara+65.6645.0137 [email protected]

Steve [email protected]

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Contact Information

Reports originating from Impact Forecasting® LLC use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® LLC summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® LLC and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at www.impactforecasting.com.

Copyright© by Impact Forecasting® L.L.C. No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® LLC has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® LLC does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.

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Thailand Floods: An Event Update - Reinsurance Thought Leadership

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